Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[Ausuka]

Neighbourizer.

[Mathdino]

I think I once got the same position you did in the draft and went Neighborizer. Common wisdom is to just pick your favourite role once you're that low, because there's no chance of beating the WIFOM of a dozen other players and the scumteam.

[Ircher]

Myloninja:
1. 624 --> Basically returns The Worst's greeting -->

Nothing important here. (Null)

2. 625 --> Unvotes until they catch up -->

Null.

3. 685 --> Another "I'm catching up" post -->

Null.

4. 1164 --> Caught up and gives some reads: The Worst, Math, Dave, Saske, and Eddie are town -->

Easy reads to have imo esp. when you don't explain them; however, having easy reads isn't necessarily scum-indicative... Yet. (Null)

5. 1167 --> Jumps on to the Lalendra wagon -->

Okay, so The Worst asked Mylo to join, so I can't comment much here other than... Why did you (i.e.:

The Worst

) basically give Mylo a free pass to jump on the wagon without explaining themselves? (Null-scum)

6. 1171 --> Lalendra read is mainly because of lack of anything townish. Mentions specifically "snarky attitude" and also states they are sheeping The Worst -->

Meh, I think both town and scum can come up with this reasoning, though I'm not sure which is more likely. (Null)

7. 1173 --> "Cheep cheep. Thanks!" -->

Probably a lol-post; null.

8. 1438 --> Says they haven't been reading and will look over it when they aren't falling asleep -->

This post would have been fine if the catch up actually happened, but it did not, so it basically amounts to a prod dodge. (48 hours between their last post and this post, and 48 hours between this post and their next post.)

9. 1494 --> Declares intent to hammer [Lovebird], but suggests that we wait for Lovebird to claim first. -->

Now you take the opportunity to declare intent to hammer... And what happened to reading the thread? (Null-scum)

10. 1544 --> "I'm up to sheep my vote in any direction aside from my town reads here lol." -->

Certainly you have some scumreads? Or have you still not caught up since Wednesday or so? It is fine to sheep; however, you have to have some reads yourself, which you don't seem to really have at this game. (I mean, you had some townreads, but I think it can be reasonably argued that those reads are basically you sheeping the majority's townreads.) Or at least, give some more details on the reads you already have.

(Neutral-Scum)

11. 1547 --> "I'll go with whatever The Worst/Math end up deciding lol." -->

This post is a huge red flag imo; I honestly don't think Mylo has any scumreads of their own at the moment, and that is not good.

(Neutral-Scum)

12. 1550 --> Says that the word "Strategy" doesn't apply to them -->

Honestly, this post doesn't really mean much. (Null)

13. 1551 --> "Every scum game I've played, I've killed myself lol. I guess that's the closest I can get to a strategy?" -->

Still not useful info. (Null)

14. 1554 --> "I showed you that game, where I killed myself at day 2." -->

Null.

15. 1556 --> Naked votes Janitor -->

........ (Null)

16. 1558 --> Quotes where they said they would sheep and Math's post about lynching Janitor -->

Are you serious that you have no personal reason to scumread Janitor? (Null-scum)

17. 1562 --> Says they would self-vote atm if Mathdino/The Worst started a flashwagon on them -->

What??? (Null)

Conclusion: Here's an attractive slot to lynch for having zero contributions to the game among other things. Note though that I'm not switching wagons unless there is decent support for this lynch because we are cutting it close to deadline.

[Mathdino]

go metadive myloninja

he's townier as scum (which isn't saying much because he self-hammered in lylo and NK'd himself once)

he spent an entire mini down to 3p lylo being completely useless and doing literally nothing being on every single person's lynch order
he openly voted any wagon that wasn't him on the basis that it wasn't him
and then self-voted at some point

i don't understand people's willingness to scumcase people without checking their meta

basically if he's scum he's purposefully mimicking my experience with him because he knows my affinity for metadiving him in particular

[Ircher]

1. In 1565:

all scum get better as the game goes on

they realise what makes people scumread them

True to an extent; however, I think you are also discounting the possibility that town!Janitor just had some bad opening posts. Like, I think (?) that the thread has for the most part established Janitor as being on the more lynchbaity-side of things, so I think it is a bit unreasonable to scumread them so much by their starting posts without at least acknowledging this fact to a greater extent than you seem to be doing.

2. In 1567:

The Janitor is not a newbie, lol.

More or less irrelevant; see above paragraph.

3. In 1569:

Is that scum indicative...?

Depends on the player; in The Janitor's case, I don't think so because I'm pretty sure we established that they were lynchbait regardless of alignment...

4. In 1583:

And overall:
SIMYK: 7
Ausuka: 6
Dave: 6
Taly: 6
Lalendra: 6
Math: 5
Worst: 5
Ircher: 5
Lovebird: 5
Mutant: 3
Mylo: 2

Iconeum and Janitor are not in this list for some reason. I would like to note though the lack of opinions on Mutant and Mylo; this indicates to me that they are keeping a relatively low profile. Now, Mutant's 3 are townreads, so.... But the Mylo reads are split 1-1 so this suggests Mylo could be low-profile scum that is simply watching the game state. This idea is also consistent with their ISO.

5. In 1594:

Ultimately were gonna have to accept the fact that 1 or 2 scum is being hard townread by SOMEONE

I mean, you are the primary one hard-townreading Lovebird where everyone else isn't.................

6. In 1605:

Does anyone here have significant experience/meta-knowledge with any of the following:
Lalendra
Lovebird
Almost50/davesaz
Ircher
Janitor (anyone know the main?)
Beefster/Myloninja

You should know the answer to one of those.....

7. In 1609:

- Ircher self-L-1ing because "hey **** you guys I guess there's no chance when you're not in a townbloc"

(How many times do I have to explain this. 1) This is a huge misrepresentation of the situation 2) I've explained this at least once and likely multiple times 3) I really wasn't in huge danger of being lynched, so I don't even see how that comes close to being anti-win condition esp. when the entire thing lasted for less than an hour.)

- Janitor, Ircher, and Taly collectively deciding that any draft-based reasoning is bull, and managed to avoid commenting on actual alignment-indicative things in the first 15 pages by doing little but complain about the 30% of my posts that were setup spec

This is like 50% true; I didn't say

all

draft-based reasoning was useless; I said most of it was and eventually conceded that one thing you stated regarding this wasn't. Furthermore, I stated that most of it was useless

in the current game state with no flips.

- Janitor never voting or displaying any reads

I would have to doublecheck, but I don't this is entirely true?

- Random people deciding that a real great idea right now would be to lynch Iconeum, the only guaranteed PR

Who said that in the past 7 pages?

8. In 1611:

And draft based reasoning DEFINITELY isn't bull, its just something we can't really do anything about until later in the game with flips.

I agree with this.

9. In 1647:

if you think i'm scum on lalendra's townflip then that's your fault for being on a town-lalendra, not mine

i'm entirely open to lynching you (as opposed to icon/janitor) tomorrow if you don't get with the program lol

Yeah, I retract my earlier statement; that was really silly.

10. In 1648:

1. The gamesolvers who will get nightkilled (in descending order of nightkill probability):
the worst, Mathdino, SIMYK, Eddie Cane.

Eh, I would reverse the positions of SIMYK and Mathdino but w/e.

- the worst is in charge of Doing What Mathdino Would Do after I die. Eddie Cane is in charge of reads generation. This also means the worst is in charge of sheeping Eddie Cane when appropriate.

I could accept this.

[Ircher]

go metadive myloninja

he's townier as scum (which isn't saying much because he self-hammered in lylo and NK'd himself once)

he spent an entire mini down to 3p lylo being completely useless and doing literally nothing being on every single person's lynch order
he openly voted any wagon that wasn't him on the basis that it wasn't him
and then self-voted at some point

i don't understand people's willingness to scumcase people without checking their meta

basically if he's scum he's purposefully mimicking my experience with him because he knows my affinity for metadiving him in particular

Fine, we stick to Lovebird/Lalendra today, preferably Lalendra.

[Ircher]

​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+74%) - Really like this slot's contributions in general. (I mean, I could probably point out some specifics, but is that really necessary?)

The Worst

(+65%) - I didn't like this slot's contributions too much early on, but I am starting to lean town here after looking at the worst's interactions with the Janitor. Lots of fluff-filled posts, but not necessarily in a scum way; there is info buried within. Yeah, definitely a bunch of good observations from this slot.

Taly

(+60%) - I've posted my thoughts on their 218. Also brings up a good point in 416. I don't necessarily agree with some of their reads, but I still feel good about this slot being town.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Mathdino

(+20%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here. First 100 posts of the game still seem to coincide with the beliefs that I have expressed regarding this game. 118 is a good post and perhaps the best post (in my opinion) that you've made so far. Setup aside, we get posts like 621 and 636 where Mathdino is basically white-knighting (perhaps an exaggeration) Lalendra's actions this game. It is fine to defend another player; however, do not attempt to derail an entire wagon without sufficient reason. (After seeing SIMYK's case on me, I may have misinterpreted Mathdino's actions here to a certain degree.) Plus, I haven't seen you do this for anyone else this game, so I am quite suspicious. Also, I probably should acknowledge that a few things that Mathdino has said regarding the setup do make sense and increase our chances of winning with the information

we have at present

. 821 is a good course of action tbh. Not sure what to make of the hard defense of Lovebird.

Also, if Lovebird/Lalendra flips scum, I think this is where we should look next.

(If they flip town, I'll have to reconsider.)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Ausuka

(+38%) - Minor townread because posts have been in general good, but nothing close to a solid read yet here. I'd also like to note that the fact they are willing to reconsider whether I am scum is probably town-motivated; I don't really see scum missing the golden opportunity that is wagoning me. 1572 is a good post.

Brassherald

Eddie Cane

(+37%) - Honestly feel that this slot is scum; however, this is more gut-based versus fact-based. Still scum-vibe; don't really like 931 either. Didn't like how he votes me AFTER the self-vote stuff is finished when he could have done so well before the self-vote shenanigans. 1192 is fairly good and clarifies his earlier voting reasons. Eddie's "holistic scumhunting" strikes me as townie for some reason... 1576 is a good post and reinforces Ausuka's 1572. I would be very surprised if scum goes to the trouble of making 1583.

Iconeum

(+34%) - Poor initial posts, but not enough to go by. 178 is a decent post though. Not saying that scum can't, but the way Iconeum is pushing the Janitor case registers on the townside to me. Some decent posts here and there, but nothing really major. The fact they don't seem to be doing too much suggests this might be scum.

Almost50

davesaz

(+33%) - Minor townread for the suggestion made in 75. Tbqh, not sure if this slot has done much better in terms of reads... I townread the self-voting shenanigans even if that isn't necessarily alignment indicative in general... Though, I agree with Iconeum's 1154 regarding davesaz's 1152.

Lovebird

(-31%) - Very few posts. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful. Then we have 270 where he quotes a post that I interpret as an RVS vote from Ico and calls it scummy. 277 is a non-answer to what I consider an otherwise valid question. Probably is your meta though to provide zero explanations which basically means I won't be able to read you at all this game.

Mutantdevle

(-36%) - Just look at how many of his first few posts deal almost entirely with the setup and express almost zero reads. See 227 to 244. That is about 15 posts dealing entirely with the setup; tell me how that is NOT an issue. But, to be fair, he does finally present some reads in 249, and while I think they are fairly easy and "safe" reads to make, I can't exactly penalize him for it at the moment. Still am not fond of this slot's contributions...

The Janitor

(-50%) - His first two posts of his really don't register well with me (105 and 111), and a few of his subsequent posts weren't that great either. However, it is possible I am placing too much emphasis on their early game as their more recent posts have been slightly better (though not necessarily townie), and the original formation of the Janitor wagon has no counterwagon at its peak.

Beefster

Myloninja13

(-51%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). Then we have 220. It is not necessarily a bad post, but the first line kinda confuses me (on an analysis level), and I'm not sure where Beefster is getting a Janitor/SIMYK scum team from in that post. After noticing only 3 posts though, I am not as confident in this read. 1164 is imo a fairly easy stance to take, but I will reserve judgement for the time being. Their ISO reads as not reading the game, not wanting to take stances, and as basically trying to coast by. If we don't want to do Lalendra/Lovebird, I think this would be a good lynch as well. Perhaps even more so than Lalendra/Lovebird lynches, though we don't get nearly as much info. The lack of reads here overall (see Eddie's huge post) reinforces the idea that they are trying to slip under the radar. Mathdino though says that their meta suggests they're town, so....

Lalendra

(-52%) - Has a few posts spanning 221 to 224. Seems to have some kind of townread on SIMYK as of 223, but hasn't given anything substantial in terms of reads yet. I like The Worst's case against this slot in 635. I don't like their catchup posts (1081 for instance), and I feel that some of their interpretations are out-of-context or unfair. The tone of her posts don't seem to match what she means, not sure if this is common for her.[/i]

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

[the worst]

good strategy. I really enjoy projecting confidence and sheeping.

[the worst]

feeling less brilliant about Mylo now but that is such a crap lynch

[Mathdino]

ITT: ircher takes everything i say literally

the worst did you read my wallpost
because you're in charge of being the future of the dinosaur race

[the worst]

I did yeah. thoroughly digested and I will continue to refer back.

Ducklings and t rexes are very similar, I haven't forgotten

[Mathdino]

ircher you managed to make 10 points/quotes in 1654 and 8 of them added absolutely nothing to the conversation

it's just a lot of nitpicking and very few contributions

and your reads lists are pretty consistently near-unreadable because you seem to never delete anything off of it

like i dare people to raise their hands if they read through ircher's reads lists when he posts them

[the worst]

*raises hand*

I have cringed a few times but tend to heed the end parts + percentages more than anything else

[the worst]

Brassherald Eddie Cane (+37%) - Honestly feel that this slot is scum

stuff like this has me like.... *sinks into chair*
but it's too clumsy to be scum narrative imo

[mutantdevle]

I haven't read in a while, will catch up sometimes tomorrow.

[Ircher]

and your reads lists are pretty consistently near-unreadable because you seem to never delete anything off of it

I do occassionally delete things from them.

[Ircher]

@Math --> Here, I trimmed down the read list some and deleted some of the obselete information and reorganized other information. Perhaps this will be more useful to you?

​

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+74%) - Really like this slot's contributions in general. (I mean, I could probably point out some specifics, but is that really necessary?)

The Worst

(+65%) - I didn't like this slot's contributions too much early on, but I am starting to lean town here after looking at the worst's interactions with the Janitor. Lots of fluff-filled posts, but not necessarily in a scum way; there is info buried within. Yeah, definitely a bunch of good observations from this slot.

Taly

(+60%) - I've posted my thoughts on their 218. Also brings up a good point in 416. I don't necessarily agree with some of their reads, but I still feel good about this slot being town.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Mathdino

(+20%) - Some of his early reads were based on the draft numbers, which is okay to an extent. I still think his first 100 posts were or more less though along the lines of my original thoughts on the slot. 118 was a pretty good post. As a side note, SIMYK's case on me makes me think I may have misinterpreted some of Math's actions. In addition to the setup-related posts, we have posts like 621 and 636 where Mathdino is basically white-knighting (perhaps an exaggeration) Lalendra's actions this game: it is fine to defend another player; however, do not attempt to derail an entire wagon without sufficient reason. Plus, I haven't seen you do this for anyone else this game, so I am on the suspicious side. Nonetheless, I probably should acknowledge that a few things that Mathdino has said regarding the setup do make sense and increase our chances of winning with the information

we have at present

. Another thing I like here is 821; it sounds like a good course of action tbh. On the other hand, I really don't like their hard defense of Lovebird (as well as Lalendra a bit earlier).

Indeed, for that reason, if Lovebird/Lalendra flips scum, I think this is where we should look next.

(If they flip town, I'll have to reconsider.)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Ausuka

(+38%) - Their posts have been in general decent, but nothing really exceptional in my opinion. One thing that makes me lean towards town is that they were willing to reconsider whether I was town; it could be for the town!cred, but honestly, I think scum!Ausuka would benefit more from not doing anything. I also liked their 1572.

Brassherald

Eddie Cane

(+37%) - At first, I felt that this slot was scum, and that continued to be my sentiment as of 931. His latter posts are better. For instance, 1192 is fairly good, and it clarifies his earlier voting reasons. 1576 is another good post and reinforces Ausuka's 1572 that the Lovebird towncase was not really good. Another thing that makes me lean town here is the holistic scumhunting idea: I would be a bit surprised if scum goes to the trouble of making 1583 (though I wouldn't rule it out).

Almost50

davesaz

(+32%) - I townread him minorly for the suggestion he made in 75. Though, tbqh, I am not sure that this slot has done much better in terms of reads. While I probably should not, I townread Almost50 self-voting themselves. In regards to davesaz, I agree with Iconeum's 1154 regarding davesaz's 1152, but for the most part, davesaz hasn't done much that makes me lean either way. The majority of this read is based on Almost50.

Iconeum

(+31%) - His initial posts are not great, but they aren't necessarily super bad either. While he does have some decent posts here and there, he is not doing much in general, so I'm starting to doubt that this slot is town.

Lovebird

(-31%) - They have very few useful posts. I haven't really expanded much on this read because their method of play is overall incompatible with the way I formulate reads.

Mutantdevle

(-36%) - His first several posts deal pretty much entirely with the setup; see 227 to 244. That is about 15 posts dealing entirely with the setup; tell me how that is NOT an issue. He does eventually present some reads in 249, though I consider the presented reads to be on the easy-side to make. Overall though, I haven't really seen anything to comment on with this slot; they are here, but they have not been contributing much.

The Janitor

(-42%) - His first two posts didn't register well with me (105 and 111), and some of his subsequent posts weren't that great either. That said, his more recent posts seem to me to be better, which leads me to the conclusion that this slot may be scummy!town, if you understand what I mean. That said, I definitely wouldn't mind lynching here; however, I think I need to reevaluate this read as a whole.

Beefster

Myloninja13

(-51%) - While I really didn't like any of Beefster's posts, Beefster only had 3 posts, so I feel that I initially emphasized those posts too much. On the other hand, Myloninja isn't doing anything to make me change my opinion of the slot. They seem to not be in-sync with the game, they don't appear to have any major opinions of their own, and they seem to be a bit comfortable actually with the game state. (I don't really even see an effort to gamesolve.) In essense, I feel like they are scum trying to coast by. Nonetheless, Mathdino suggests Myloninja is more likely town by meta, so...........

Lalendra

(-52%) - Has a few posts spanning 221 to 224. Seems to have some kind of townread on SIMYK as of 223, but hasn't given anything substantial in terms of reads yet. I like The Worst's case against this slot in 635. I don't like their catchup posts (1081 for instance), and I feel that some of their interpretations are out-of-context or unfair. The tone of her posts don't seem to match what she means, not sure if this is common for her.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

[the worst]

That is not much of a better read but it does exclude some of the more confusing inconsistencies which is nice

ye olde short sharp shiny lists with exactly zero reasoning are more my speed but ah well

[yessiree]

Lovebird has been prodded.

[Iconeum]

@Taly

The only response you seem to want from me is why I OMGUS read Lovebird?
I put up my entire scumread of Lovebird, and added that I didn't like that push on me... it's minor compared to the actual scumread.

Unless there is a Math/Lovebird scumpair in this game, his defense of Love makes no sense. I feel his entire defense of Love is based on 'Too scum to be scum', or a 'Love wouldn't be this scum if actually scum'.
Math feels the same way about lalendra, but is hesitant to call the worst out on his tunnel?

I'm having trouble accepting Math's reversal of townreading me (now he is scumreading me). It feels very opportunistic, having general support for a possible lynch. Still, I believe the calculated Math is simply scumreading me for draftreasons. We can discuss this post-game

It gets worse later in Math's ISO. I really don't like his continuously growing scumread on myself, but ofcourse I'm a bit biased here.
If anything, he should be unwilling to lynch me even as scum because of low-scum utility power role.

[Iconeum]

Lovebird's scummeta:

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=75395

[Iconeum]

If lovebird flips town, Math is confirmed town for me. Seriously doubt scumMath would be defending Love like this.

[the worst]

That game was so stressful to read

[Iconeum]

Town reads on Ircher and Taly.
Weak town lean on Beefster.
Wanna look closely at people on Ircher wagon.
The Janitor possible scum.

Iso'd mutantdevle. Overuse of setup spec discussison can lead to telling scum what they need to fakeclaim or who they need to kill.
I will argue against misinformation and misuse of basically correct spec if I see it but otherwise would prefer to leave enough intact to solve later.

Caught up, don't know how much I'll remember tomorrow after the cold meds wear off.
I have not had enough time to devote to actual reads other than the gut towns.
I'll place my vote where it seems to be useful for generating material to read from.
VOTE: The Janitor

I don't like the stall at all.
Iso'd Lovebird, can't find any evidence of town there.
VOTE: Lovebird

That's L-1

I don't get why lovebird is even possible as town. I could not find any attempt at sorting people, and I have a pretty good record for finding people via that scumtell.
Janitor would be an acceptable alternative wagon. I was there before but the game needed action.

After replacing A50, he produces an early scumread on janitor without reasoning.
Instead of building that read, decides to ISO mutant? From this, there is no read. Only NAI chit chat.

In 1152, says he's caught up but doesn't have reads. Funny shit right there. 'hey guys I'm active but don't want to commit to reads here. Let me just vote my earlier read that I didn't explain a single word about but it's a very easy vote' (on Janitor).

1489 was a terrrible post, very opportunistic L-1 that is severely underexplained. It gives me the creeps to continue the Love wagon, and I did kinda like Math's defense of Love.

Saying 'game needs action and nobody follows me on Janitor' is also suuuuuper weak because he took 0 action in pushing that himself.

UNVOTE: Love
VOTE: davesav

[the worst]

ICONEUM is this a READ with REAL CONVICTION???
(๏_๏)

what's your consideration of Mr. Fifty's contribution to the slot, considering he's a LOT more readable?