Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)
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Ankamius Survivor
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Punreader Goon
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Early content is indeed preferable. I think I kamanage 40 pages. Many thanks for the hastened D1. However, if you're itching for analysis right now without reading anything, a freebie: most of the punteam bussed.In post 3248, Ankamius wrote:Read day one at least, most of day two is useless
I submit as proof both the pun lynch fairly early, and that you haven't managed to lynch pun since then with a significantly longer D2. That would suggest you're looking in the wrong places. If you're looking off the wagon, that would explain things quite nicely. I'd need far better grounding in the game to be able to name specific names.Let me give an Alternative perspective.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Trying to fulfill #1 is the reason day 2 is taking so longIn post 1050, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE wrote:100% luck, 0% skill
when all ins are free you're bound to river eventually. whatever
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Impossibear has received a quest, the quest was given by me. they need to perform the following actions today to complete the quest:
1. be vote #3 on a wagon today that reaches L-1, this L-1 wagon must be reflected in the vote count
2. be the hammer on today's lynch
successfully performing the above actions will complete the quest and allow them to be publically daycopped tomorrow so we get another IC or confscum.
quests changes every night and GIF will tell me what the new quest is
It was only done like... yesterday? Maybe the day before?-
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Punreader Goon
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If it means anything to you, I specifically scouted the slot before offering to replace in. When I saw the length of the iso (as in, how short it was) and the (comparatively speaking) tame posting, I knew it was a town slot. GIF's announcement implied under some amount of pressure no less. Precisely why I wanted it.In post 3243, Ankamius wrote: Tchill13 was very scummy... but I want to see what punreader does to see if they can reverse my read.
It would be a bit hard to quantify why this contrasts with my experience of Tchill when he's pun, and also even if I could provide the lethally cold, precise logic, it being my slot there is an obvious bias and my word cannot be trusted.
Overall impression from your reads is that almost all of your strong town, off of the reasoning you have given, are slots I'd beconcernedabout. In contrast, your normal townreads look fairly likely to be accurate. I lack the information to give feedback on those below the townread line off of your one post.Let me give an Alternative perspective.-
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Kokichi Oma Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Why?In post 3253, Punreader wrote:Overall impression from your reads is that almost all of your strong town, off of the reasoning you have given, are slots I'd be concerned about.-
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Punreader Goon
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Can confirm this. I am a PR, but unfortunately, a one ill-suited to my talents. The use comes in getting us off of mylo by either attracting the nightkill or predicting it; the former is impossible and the latter is doubtful. I am indeed a hider that can hide behind pun. My role specifies I am a "normal hider, modified to not die behind pun", but I am waiting to hear back from the mod on what constitutes being a "normal" hider.In post 3207, Impossibear wrote:punreader- PR
My role does not specify if I can be tracked.
My role does not specify if I can be roleblocked.
My role does not specify if I show up on a watch report if a watcher targets my target. (I would assume so, but not all mods do.)
My role does not specify if an investigative targeting me gets no result, a result on me, a result on my target, or a result on both my target and I.
My role does not specify if an investigative targeting my target gets a result on me, a result on my target, or a result on both my target and I.
I can tell you Tchill submitted no action N1.Let me give an Alternative perspective.-
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Kokichi Oma Survivor
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Punreader Goon
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Your description of their play is describing things I would immediately be severely cautious about coming from the players in question.In post 3255, Ankamius wrote:
Why?In post 3253, Punreader wrote:Overall impression from your reads is that almost all of your strong town, off of the reasoning you have given, are slots I'd be concerned about.Let me give an Alternative perspective.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Kaede Akamatsu Mafia Scum
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Punreader Goon
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In post 3204, Impossibear wrote:Kaede- IC
Jungle- Weird Joat
Wilky- Miller Slow Cop
Maria- Some Kind of Investigative
OTM- Weird RB
Tchill- Non weak hider
Us- BP Vig w/ unspecified modifier
Flipped: Ability Swapper
For setup spec reference, cause I'm gonna want pun to do the same thing when they get their ass in here.
Well quick analysis would be that there's probably 2-3 pun in the unclaimed with 0-1 pun in the claimed. My role can act as a self-protective, your role has a protective, OnTheMark's roleblock gives a third source of killstopping power. This seems reasonable from town, but I would become suspect of an additional killstopper claim.In post 3207, Impossibear wrote:Ankamius
Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells)
Ramcius
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
davesaz- NEG UTIL
Kokichi Oma- Unclaimed
projectmatt- Unclaimed
Wraith- Unclaimed
Kaede as an IC, the ability to get a second alignment confirmation, the miller slow cop, and the investigative is a little on the heavy side in terms of investigating. It's possible there's a pun in there, but not guaranteed. I would definitely lynch in there if we had an additional investigative claim.
I'd need to see the whole set of roles in the game for more thorough analysis. It'd be Impossible before then. Do bear with me.Let me give an Alternative perspective.-
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Punreader Goon
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If I'm honest, the only names here which don't immediately look town are Ouroboros and MariaR. Outside chance, Ankamius. But I'll let this analysis sit in the fridge a while and cool off while I go read.In post 1036, GuyInFreezer wrote:Ventriloquist (10):Ouroboros,ManWithNoName, MariaR (Investigative), Wraith, Alchemist21,Kaede Akamatsu, davesaz (negative utility), Tchill13, wilky (Miller Slow Cop), AnkamiusLet me give an Alternative perspective.-
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Punreader Goon
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Respectfully, I disagree. I strongly believe the unclaimed would contain a minimum of one pun, if not two. I would expect this game to be almost, but not quite, role madness. I'd expect 2-4 vanillas in the game total (let's say 3), including the one flipped already. Everyone else I would anticipate holding a role.In post 3196, Impossibear wrote:We have too much power claimed and a flipped scum. That means strong townreads outside of the claimed power roles are disproportionally more likely to be accurate.
If you treat the game as role madness, you use a different metric to read game balance than a metric for a game that is predominantly vanilla. No matter which three names are pun, the game fundamentallycannotbe predominantly vanilla. Ergo, the unclaimed aren't more cleared; they're more suspicious.Let me give an Alternative perspective.-
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OnTheMark Mafia Scum
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Punreader Goon
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Proof of concept:
If the mafia team had a 'Vanilla', if the mafia team had a 'Goon', what would the purpose of this role be? There would be a maximum of two candidates to have any possible impact.In post 1037, GuyInFreezer wrote:- Bodyswap:At any point of the game, you may switch your role with your factional members by PMing the mod.
You can safely assume from this role's flip that the mafia are then all power roles.
If the mafia are all power roles, what does that say about the level of power the town needs?
The mafia cannot have power roles when the town has a limited supply. To compensate for the power of the mafia roles, the town would thus need a significant number of power roles. Most of the game in fact. In an 18 player 4-scum gamewith all goons, you can expect the town to need about fivestrongpower roles (we are talking ungated vigilante levels of strong), or about 7 weaker power roles. That is for a punteam without power. Give all the pun power roles, then suddenly you're looking at a figure of 7 stronger power roles (full ungated vig, strong) or about 10-12 weaker ones. 10-12/14 total town members.
Thus.
2-4 vanilla town.
Jingle, you know who I am so you know I know my setup math; I'm not wrong in these figures. This is how a game would be balanced.Let me give an Alternative perspective.-
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OnTheMark Mafia Scum
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Punreader Goon
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It doesn't matter what you think.In post 3266, OnTheMark wrote:Nah I think that is waaay too op for town however that does seem to be what the site does now.
It matters what actually happens.
In a 13p 10:3 mini, balance standards would dictate that against an all-goon punteam, you'd have about 3 strong town roles, or 4-5 weaker ones. Predominantly vanilla.
If the punteam were suddenly all power roles (something not done in normals fairly often for this very reason), you suddenly need practically double those numbers: about 5-6 strong town roles, or 6-10 weaker ones. A game that is, or is practically, role madness.
If you scale this up to an 18p 14:4, the numbers are similarly adjusted. Against an all-goon punteam, you need a little extra power. 4-5 strong town roles, or about 7 weaker ones. Predominantly vanilla. When the punteam is all power roles, you need a minimum of 7 strong town roles, or about 10-12 weaker ones. Practically role madness.
Jingle seems to have inferred from the premise "the punteam is power roles", "we have too many claims, thus the punteam is mostly in the claimed roles". But it's the opposite. "The punteam is power roles" implies "we have too many unclaimed players, thus the punteam is mostly in the unclaimed players".
You don't have to like it to know that's the way it's done.Let me give an Alternative perspective.-
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Ouroboros Goon
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Given that Ventriloquist only happened because I strongarmed it through and I haven't had any dead certainties in my scumreads today, yeah I suppose we didn't lynch scum today.
But you seem to think that I'm scum, either for not having already lynched another scum or for having lynched a scum in the first place.-
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Ouroboros Goon
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Also literally no one has given literally any townread to people for being on/off the wagon for the same reason that the wagon was pushed through via my force of will so that's a terrible way to read the game.-
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Punreader Goon
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Extrapolating from my conclusions thusfar, it would be fair to state I would not lynch most of the claimed roles at this juncture. Outside chance of MariaR but I wouldn't be comfortable concluding that so hastily; I'm not married to the concept.In post 3261, Punreader wrote:In post 3204, Impossibear wrote:Kaede- IC
Jungle- Weird Joat
Wilky- Miller Slow Cop
Maria- Some Kind of Investigative
OTM- Weird RB
Tchill- Non weak hider
Us- BP Vig w/ unspecified modifier
Flipped: Ability Swapper
For setup spec reference, cause I'm gonna want pun to do the same thing when they get their ass in here.
Well quick analysis would be that there's probably 2-3 pun in the unclaimed with 0-1 pun in the claimed. My role can act as a self-protective, your role has a protective, OnTheMark's roleblock gives a third source of killstopping power. This seems reasonable from town, but I would become suspect of an additional killstopper claim.In post 3207, Impossibear wrote:Ankamius
Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells)
Ramcius
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
davesaz- NEG UTIL
Kokichi Oma- Unclaimed
projectmatt- Unclaimed
Wraith- Unclaimed
Kaede as an IC, the ability to get a second alignment confirmation, the miller slow cop, and the investigative is a little on the heavy side in terms of investigating. It's possible there's a pun in there, but not guaranteed. I would definitely lynch in there if we had an additional investigative claim.
I'd need to see the whole set of roles in the game for more thorough analysis. It'd be Impossible before then. Do bear with me.
I would lynch in the unclaimed players. Off of description of play, I'm not too concerned about Wraith or Alchemist21. (I'll concoct more tangible analysis later.) I'm also not so concerned about Dunnstral. (He's a read I don't need to put much effort into before getting dun.)
Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch) I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and projectmatt.
I wouldn't be confident he'd flip pun, but I'd lynch Ramicus if it came to it which seems to be what you want to do anyway.
Still, these are without reading the game so we'll have to see what changes when I've actually read D1.Let me give an Alternative perspective.-
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Ouroboros Goon
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The implication here is that you specifically scumread meIn post 3270, Punreader wrote:Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch) I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and projectmatt.morefor having lynched scum D1, am I wrong?-
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OnTheMark Mafia Scum
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I like this answer. I wish more people spoke like you. I understand you.In post 3267, Punreader wrote:
It doesn't matter what you think.In post 3266, OnTheMark wrote:Nah I think that is waaay too op for town however that does seem to be what the site does now.
It matters what actually happens.
In a 13p 10:3 mini, balance standards would dictate that against an all-goon punteam, you'd have about 3 strong town roles, or 4-5 weaker ones. Predominantly vanilla.
If the punteam were suddenly all power roles (something not done in normals fairly often for this very reason), you suddenly need practically double those numbers: about 5-6 strong town roles, or 6-10 weaker ones. A game that is, or is practically, role madness.
If you scale this up to an 18p 14:4, the numbers are similarly adjusted. Against an all-goon punteam, you need a little extra power. 4-5 strong town roles, or about 7 weaker ones. Predominantly vanilla. When the punteam is all power roles, you need a minimum of 7 strong town roles, or about 10-12 weaker ones. Practically role madness.
Jingle seems to have inferred from the premise "the punteam is power roles", "we have too many claims, thus the punteam is mostly in the claimed roles". But it's the opposite. "The punteam is power roles" implies "we have too many unclaimed players, thus the punteam is mostly in the unclaimed players".
You don't have to like it to know that's the way it's done.-
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OnTheMark Mafia Scum
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@PunIn post 3137, OnTheMark wrote:Dave Wraith ProjectMatt Ank RC ETL Kokichi should have all the scums I think
What do you think is right? Wrong? And maybe?-
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Punreader Goon
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I would say you are more right than wrong. 'Scumread' implies a level of read on you I wouldn't confidently say I have. I literally haven't read the game; it would be hard to have a punread of any real strength.In post 3271, Ouroboros wrote:
The implication here is that you specifically scumread meIn post 3270, Punreader wrote:Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch) I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and projectmatt.morefor having lynched scum D1, am I wrong?
I would say it's more that I have an idea of where I wouldn't look and where I would look, and you're in the area I would look. Looking there doesn't make you pun, in of itself. It just means I'm looking at you as a pun candidate. Your application is on file and being processed; for all I know, when I read the game, it could be thrown into the shredder. But for the moment, it is being reviewed.Let me give an Alternative perspective.
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