Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Ankamius]

Oh finishing the quest publicly cops them

There's more claims but Jingle (Impossibear) went into them recently, it's near the end of his ISO

My own reads are just above for some reference at least

[Punreader]

Read day one at least, most of day two is useless

Early content is indeed preferable. I think I kamanage 40 pages. Many thanks for the hastened D1. However, if you're itching for analysis right now without reading anything, a freebie: most of the punteam bussed.

I submit as proof both the pun lynch fairly early, and that you haven't managed to lynch pun since then with a significantly longer D2. That would suggest you're looking in the wrong places. If you're looking off the wagon, that would explain things quite nicely. I'd need far better grounding in the game to be able to name specific names.

[Ankamius]

100% luck, 0% skill

when all ins are free you're bound to river eventually. whatever

--

Impossibear has received a quest, the quest was given by me. they need to perform the following actions today to complete the quest:

1. be vote #3 on a wagon today that reaches L-1, this L-1 wagon must be reflected in the vote count
2. be the hammer on today's lynch

successfully performing the above actions will complete the quest and allow them to be publically daycopped tomorrow so we get another IC or confscum.

quests changes every night and GIF will tell me what the new quest is

Trying to fulfill #1 is the reason day 2 is taking so long

It was only done like... yesterday? Maybe the day before?

[Punreader]

Tchill13 was very scummy... but I want to see what punreader does to see if they can reverse my read.

If it means anything to you, I specifically scouted the slot before offering to replace in. When I saw the length of the iso (as in, how short it was) and the (comparatively speaking) tame posting, I knew it was a town slot. GIF's announcement implied under some amount of pressure no less. Precisely why I wanted it.

It would be a bit hard to quantify why this contrasts with my experience of Tchill when he's pun, and also even if I could provide the lethally cold, precise logic, it being my slot there is an obvious bias and my word cannot be trusted.

Overall impression from your reads is that almost all of your strong town, off of the reasoning you have given, are slots I'd be

concerned

about. In contrast, your normal townreads look fairly likely to be accurate. I lack the information to give feedback on those below the townread line off of your one post.

[Kokichi Oma]

Oh noooo. People voting meeee

[Ankamius]

Overall impression from your reads is that almost all of your strong town, off of the reasoning you have given, are slots I'd be concerned about.

Why?

[Punreader]

punreader- PR

Can confirm this. I am a PR, but unfortunately, a one ill-suited to my talents. The use comes in getting us off of mylo by either attracting the nightkill or predicting it; the former is impossible and the latter is doubtful. I am indeed a hider that can hide behind pun. My role specifies I am a "normal hider, modified to not die behind pun", but I am waiting to hear back from the mod on what constitutes being a "normal" hider.

My role does not specify if I can be tracked.
My role does not specify if I can be roleblocked.
My role does not specify if I show up on a watch report if a watcher targets my target. (I would assume so, but not all mods do.)
My role does not specify if an investigative targeting me gets no result, a result on me, a result on my target, or a result on both my target and I.
My role does not specify if an investigative targeting my target gets a result on me, a result on my target, or a result on both my target and I.

I can tell you Tchill submitted no action N1.

[Kokichi Oma]

So what all else is needed for that quest

[Punreader]

Overall impression from your reads is that almost all of your strong town, off of the reasoning you have given, are slots I'd be concerned about.

Why?

Your description of their play is describing things I would immediately be severely cautious about coming from the players in question.

[Ankamius]

Just an Impossiber hammer, Kokichi

Pun: acknowledged

I await your thoughts after reading day one then

[Kaede Akamatsu]

VOTE: Ramcius

[Punreader]

Kaede- IC
Jungle- Weird Joat
Wilky- Miller Slow Cop
Maria- Some Kind of Investigative
OTM- Weird RB
Tchill- Non weak hider
Us- BP Vig w/ unspecified modifier
Flipped: Ability Swapper
For setup spec reference, cause I'm gonna want pun to do the same thing when they get their ass in here.

Ankamius
Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells)
Ramcius
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
davesaz- NEG UTIL
Kokichi Oma- Unclaimed
projectmatt- Unclaimed
Wraith- Unclaimed

Well quick analysis would be that there's probably 2-3 pun in the unclaimed with 0-1 pun in the claimed. My role can act as a self-protective, your role has a protective, OnTheMark's roleblock gives a third source of killstopping power. This seems reasonable from town, but I would become suspect of an additional killstopper claim.

Kaede as an IC, the ability to get a second alignment confirmation, the miller slow cop, and the investigative is a little on the heavy side in terms of investigating. It's possible there's a pun in there, but not guaranteed. I would definitely lynch in there if we had an additional investigative claim.

I'd need to see the whole set of roles in the game for more thorough analysis. It'd be Impossible before then. Do bear with me.

[Punreader]

Ventriloquist (10):

Ouroboros,

ManWithNoName

, MariaR (Investigative), Wraith, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz (negative utility), Tchill13, wilky (Miller Slow Cop), Ankamius

If I'm honest, the only names here which don't immediately look town are Ouroboros and MariaR. Outside chance, Ankamius. But I'll let this analysis sit in the fridge a while and cool off while I go read.

[Punreader]

We have too much power claimed and a flipped scum. That means strong townreads outside of the claimed power roles are disproportionally more likely to be accurate.

Respectfully, I disagree. I strongly believe the unclaimed would contain a minimum of one pun, if not two. I would expect this game to be almost, but not quite, role madness. I'd expect 2-4 vanillas in the game total (let's say 3), including the one flipped already. Everyone else I would anticipate holding a role.

If you treat the game as role madness, you use a different metric to read game balance than a metric for a game that is predominantly vanilla. No matter which three names are pun, the game fundamentally

cannot

be predominantly vanilla. Ergo, the unclaimed aren't more cleared; they're more suspicious.

[OnTheMark]

I townread pun, assuming pun in punreader’s notes is scum.

[Punreader]

Proof of concept:

• Bodyswap:
  At any point of the game, you may switch your role with your factional members by PMing the mod.

If the mafia team had a 'Vanilla', if the mafia team had a 'Goon', what would the purpose of this role be? There would be a maximum of two candidates to have any possible impact.

You can safely assume from this role's flip that the mafia are then all power roles.

If the mafia are all power roles, what does that say about the level of power the town needs?

The mafia cannot have power roles when the town has a limited supply. To compensate for the power of the mafia roles, the town would thus need a significant number of power roles. Most of the game in fact. In an 18 player 4-scum game

with all goons

, you can expect the town to need about five

strong

power roles (we are talking ungated vigilante levels of strong), or about 7 weaker power roles. That is for a punteam without power. Give all the pun power roles, then suddenly you're looking at a figure of 7 stronger power roles (full ungated vig, strong) or about 10-12 weaker ones. 10-12/14 total town members.

Thus.

2-4 vanilla town.

Jingle, you know who I am so you know I know my setup math; I'm not wrong in these figures. This is how a game would be balanced.

[OnTheMark]

Nah I think that is waaay too op for town however that does seem to be what the site does now.

Hell I just got done with a setup that increased scum power and decreased it for scum both normals.

I like the process don’t like the balancing

[Punreader]

Nah I think that is waaay too op for town however that does seem to be what the site does now.

It doesn't matter what you think.

It matters what actually happens.

In a 13p 10:3 mini, balance standards would dictate that against an all-goon punteam, you'd have about 3 strong town roles, or 4-5 weaker ones. Predominantly vanilla.

If the punteam were suddenly all power roles (something not done in normals fairly often for this very reason), you suddenly need practically double those numbers: about 5-6 strong town roles, or 6-10 weaker ones. A game that is, or is practically, role madness.

If you scale this up to an 18p 14:4, the numbers are similarly adjusted. Against an all-goon punteam, you need a little extra power. 4-5 strong town roles, or about 7 weaker ones. Predominantly vanilla. When the punteam is all power roles, you need a minimum of 7 strong town roles, or about 10-12 weaker ones. Practically role madness.

Jingle seems to have inferred from the premise "the punteam is power roles", "we have too many claims, thus the punteam is mostly in the claimed roles". But it's the opposite. "The punteam is power roles" implies "we have too many unclaimed players, thus the punteam is mostly in the unclaimed players".

You don't have to like it to know that's the way it's done.

[Ouroboros]

Given that Ventriloquist only happened because I strongarmed it through and I haven't had any dead certainties in my scumreads today, yeah I suppose we didn't lynch scum today.
But you seem to think that I'm scum, either for not having already lynched another scum or for having lynched a scum in the first place.

[Ouroboros]

Also literally no one has given literally any townread to people for being on/off the wagon for the same reason that the wagon was pushed through via my force of will so that's a terrible way to read the game.

[Punreader]

Kaede- IC
Jungle- Weird Joat
Wilky- Miller Slow Cop
Maria- Some Kind of Investigative
OTM- Weird RB
Tchill- Non weak hider
Us- BP Vig w/ unspecified modifier
Flipped: Ability Swapper
For setup spec reference, cause I'm gonna want pun to do the same thing when they get their ass in here.

Ankamius
Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells)
Ramcius
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
davesaz- NEG UTIL
Kokichi Oma- Unclaimed
projectmatt- Unclaimed
Wraith- Unclaimed

Well quick analysis would be that there's probably 2-3 pun in the unclaimed with 0-1 pun in the claimed. My role can act as a self-protective, your role has a protective, OnTheMark's roleblock gives a third source of killstopping power. This seems reasonable from town, but I would become suspect of an additional killstopper claim.

Kaede as an IC, the ability to get a second alignment confirmation, the miller slow cop, and the investigative is a little on the heavy side in terms of investigating. It's possible there's a pun in there, but not guaranteed. I would definitely lynch in there if we had an additional investigative claim.

I'd need to see the whole set of roles in the game for more thorough analysis. It'd be Impossible before then. Do bear with me.

Extrapolating from my conclusions thusfar, it would be fair to state I would not lynch most of the claimed roles at this juncture. Outside chance of MariaR but I wouldn't be comfortable concluding that so hastily; I'm not married to the concept.

I would lynch in the unclaimed players. Off of description of play, I'm not too concerned about Wraith or Alchemist21. (I'll concoct more tangible analysis later.) I'm also not so concerned about Dunnstral. (He's a read I don't need to put much effort into before getting dun.)
Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch) I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and projectmatt.
I wouldn't be confident he'd flip pun, but I'd lynch Ramicus if it came to it which seems to be what you want to do anyway.

Still, these are without reading the game so we'll have to see what changes when I've actually read D1.

[Ouroboros]

Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch) I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and projectmatt.

The implication here is that you specifically scumread me

more

for having lynched scum D1, am I wrong?

[OnTheMark]

Nah I think that is waaay too op for town however that does seem to be what the site does now.

It doesn't matter what you think.

It matters what actually happens.

In a 13p 10:3 mini, balance standards would dictate that against an all-goon punteam, you'd have about 3 strong town roles, or 4-5 weaker ones. Predominantly vanilla.

If the punteam were suddenly all power roles (something not done in normals fairly often for this very reason), you suddenly need practically double those numbers: about 5-6 strong town roles, or 6-10 weaker ones. A game that is, or is practically, role madness.

If you scale this up to an 18p 14:4, the numbers are similarly adjusted. Against an all-goon punteam, you need a little extra power. 4-5 strong town roles, or about 7 weaker ones. Predominantly vanilla. When the punteam is all power roles, you need a minimum of 7 strong town roles, or about 10-12 weaker ones. Practically role madness.

Jingle seems to have inferred from the premise "the punteam is power roles", "we have too many claims, thus the punteam is mostly in the claimed roles". But it's the opposite. "The punteam is power roles" implies "we have too many unclaimed players, thus the punteam is mostly in the unclaimed players".

You don't have to like it to know that's the way it's done.

I like this answer. I wish more people spoke like you. I understand you.

[OnTheMark]

Dave Wraith ProjectMatt Ank RC ETL Kokichi should have all the scums I think

@Pun

What do you think is right? Wrong? And maybe?

[Punreader]

Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch) I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and projectmatt.

The implication here is that you specifically scumread me

more

for having lynched scum D1, am I wrong?

I would say you are more right than wrong. 'Scumread' implies a level of read on you I wouldn't confidently say I have. I literally haven't read the game; it would be hard to have a punread of any real strength.

I would say it's more that I have an idea of where I wouldn't look and where I would look, and you're in the area I would look. Looking there doesn't make you pun, in of itself. It just means I'm looking at you as a pun candidate. Your application is on file and being processed; for all I know, when I read the game, it could be thrown into the shredder. But for the moment, it is being reviewed.