Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[yessiree]

VC 3.9 Final

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

The Janitor (5) [Lynch]

- Taly, Iconeum, Ausuka, davesaz, Eddie Cane

Iconeum (1)

- Ircher

Not voting

- mutantdevle, Katyusha, The Janitor

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-06-03 13:00:00)

[yessiree]

The Janitor has been lynched! He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

Night three has begun.

Night three ends in (expired on 2018-06-02 17:00:00)

[yessiree]

Night 3 has ended.

mutantdevle was killed! He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

[yessiree]

VC 4.0

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Not voting

- Katyusha, Ausuka, davesaz, Eddie Cane, Iconeum, Taly, Ircher

Day 4 ends in (expired on 2018-06-14 17:00:00)

Note:

Moving forward, I will be offering to have nights accelerated. It will occur when the following three conditions are met: all night actions are in, everyone has seen the night start PM, and I don't receive a request stating otherwise.

[Ausuka]

Oh is Ircher scum this game?

Will do ISO things tomorrow.

[Ausuka]

Actually I think Ircher is still town

[Ausuka]

Note:

Moving forward, I will be offering to have nights accelerated. It will occur when the following three conditions are met: all night actions are in, everyone has seen the night start PM, and I don't receive a request stating otherwise.

Iconescum?

[Katyusha]

I'm not casting a vote until we pin down a team.

pedit: Yeah that kill isn't that shocking to me honestly, scum only need 1 lynch to win so the WIFOM of not going for ircher isn't useful. Plus it solidifies a me-scum/ico-town narrative before devle has the chance to take it back after Janitor flipped town so

Note:

Moving forward, I will be offering to have nights accelerated. It will occur when the following three conditions are met: all night actions are in, everyone has seen the night start PM, and I don't receive a request stating otherwise.

Iconescum?

i dont get it but if it helps you see it i'll take it LMFAO

[Ausuka]

Kinda implies mountainous to me? idk

[Ircher]

Night 3 has ended.

mutantdevle was killed! He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

Of course this happened...

[Katyusha]

Ico town/me town: Illogical
Ico scum/me town: Ico's night action doesn't matter
Ico scum/me scum: Ico's night action doesn't matter
Ico town/me scum: Ico's night action matters?

at the same time though i feel like it's a shitty way to blow ico's cover, it's probably NAI

[Ircher]

Notes:
Night 3 Vigilante OR Vengeful
1-Shot Vigilante OR 1-Shot PGO (active)
Cop OR 1-Shot Redirector
1-Shot Commuter OR 1-Shot Watcher
Doctor OR Roleblocker
Universal Backup OR Role Cop
Neighborizer OR Fruit Vendor
Jailkeeper OR Tracker

Role Claims, Draft Numbers, and Draft Order:
1: Iconeum (1) - Cop (Confirmed)

2: the worst (3) - Jailkeeper (Confirmed)

3: Lalendra (5) - Role Cop (Confirmed)

4: Ircher (11) - Neighborizer (Confirmed)

5: SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis/Kats (413) - VT, Universal Backup/Rolecop

6: Mathdino (2) - 1-Shot Vigilante (Confirmed)

7: The Janitor (2) - VT, Neighborizer

8: Beefster/Myloninja (4) - VT, Tracker (Confirmed)

9: Taly (4) - VT, Neighborizer
10: Almost50/Davesaz (8) - VT, Neighborizer;

Claim is consistent with play.

11: mutantdevle (8) - VT, Neighborizer

12: Ausuka (6) - VT, Neighborizer

13: Lovebird (6) - VT, Tracker (Confirmed)

14: brassherald/Eddie Cane (6) - VT, Tracker

Night 1 Actions:
Iconeum copped Mathdino --> Failed, No result
I neighborized Taly --> Successful
Mathdino vigged Myloninja --> Successful
The Worst jailed ??? --> ???
Mafia killed The Worst --> Successful
Lalendra role-copped Iconeum --> Successful, "Cop"

Night 2 Actions:
I neighborized Ausuka --> Successful
Mafia killed Mathdino --> Successful
Iconeum copped SIMYK --> Failed, No result

Night 3 Actions:
I neighborized Katyusha --> Successful
Mafia killed Mutantdevle --> Successful
Iconeum copped ??? --> ???

This is what we know about the setup so far.

[Ircher]

Spoiler: SIMYK and Katy ISO (KATY PLEASE READ)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis / Katyusha ISO:

1. In 46:

I am of the BELIEF our best counter to it is to start lynching FOR the roleblocker starting on D2

Hmm............

2. In 253:

okay SO can you EXPAND upon this read? PLUS I think if you SCUMREAD me it would be good to explain why since I'm so far universally townread ೕ(･ㅂ･ )

Is this a reasonable request, or am I reading in too much?

3. In 807:

I would rather vig LOVEBIRD over AUSUKA-CHAN if we are required to select between the two ┐( ˘_˘)┌

(No Comment)

The LYNCH today should be between Ircher/Lalendra in my opinion, I DISAGREE with the consensus that davesaz is TOWN over janitor but Eddie right that davesaz is perefectly readable so I will permit that to resolve for the NEXT day (ʃ⌣́,⌣́ƪ)

I actually don't like this, and I think it is obvious why. But I think I'm reading in too much...

4. In 882:

WHILE I'm not TRYING to make my case for TALY I will say that I do agree with EDDIE that deepwolfreading is a BIT risky at this point, since we don't have ASSOCIATIVES it's more likely we wind up scumreading TOWN - deepwolves are found by COPS and by ASSOCIATIVES after all ^_^

(No Comment)

5. In 926:

LOOK

Taly, Eddie-kun, can we STOP this (ꐦ ಠ皿ಠ ) ???

Someone can look more into the context, but I get this feeling this post is LAMIST in nature.

6. In 944:

I will do so when I stop distracting myself from this post for THREE days (✿´ ꒳ ` )

While I believe SIMYK's reasons to be stalled in making their post were genuine and legitimate, I still wonder..........

7. In 1538:

His self-vote was a PARODY of Ausuka I don't really think that's townie but OK

I DO remember however liking how Janitor's posting IMPROVED throughout the day... (ʃ⌣́,⌣́ƪ)

There is someone we are DEFINITELY overlooking but I don't know whom. Or we're just WRONG

Again, am I reading in too much, or does something feel... off... about this post?

8. In 1542:

AUSUKA-CHAN is really obvious town and I am NOT lynching there >n<

Wait, when did this read come about?

9. In 1804:

SO WAIT this is an IMPORTANT point I wanted to BRING UP

IF Ausuka-chan is scum, this DOESN'T make sense to me at all - being able to WHITE-KNIGHT a town!Ircher (we AGREED they are NOT scum together so yeah) seems like an IDEAL time to whiteknight and gain TOWNCRED. so WHY doesn't Ausuka-chan take it? I think this is TOWN suicidalness, she EVEN did this in the last game I played with her and I READ IT AS town but it was also too late to do anything ( ¬_ლ)

(No Comment)

10. In 1806:

AUSUKA-CHAN can you give a FINAL readlist? I do NOT think I can start a flashwagon BUT I do not possess confidence in this flip whatsoever

(No Comment)

11. In 1812:

HIGH risk HIGH reward and I really DO think Ausuka-chan is town ┐(￣ヘ￣)┌

Was the last part really necessary actually?

12. In 2097:

Ircher I really think that IF you are town

Note the emphasis on IF; while I know they scumread me, was it necessary to place emphasis on their scumread?

13. In 2240:

pedit: Ausuka-chan after some thought I do must agree that Ircher is more likely town by roles and draft combined aswell. He can ONLY be scum with a team with ICONEUM anyway and it MUST be one that believed they did not need a roleblocker since because they had the cop already.

(But not by play??? I don't see why anyone would treat me as essentially conf!town if they scumread me play when my role only proves I did not perform the night kill. I could've easily have two scumbuddies do the night-kill for me, so.........)

14. In 2243:

It is ALSO possible that ICONEUM is LYING, which will be REVEALED if that is the case after Janitor or I am LYNCHED.

(Original ^)

It is ALSO possible that ICONEUM is LYING, which will be REVEALED if that is the case after Janitor AND I am LYNCHED.

FTFY.

15. In 2357:

I am SOMEWHAT ANNOYED that only NOW people are CONSIDERING davesaz as MAFIA, as I was the one whom CONSISTENTLY pushed that read...

You expressed the read on multiple occassions, but you have by no means consistently pushed the read.

16. In 2450:

I'm starting with Ausuka, ircher, and taly as conftown.

How is Ausuka conf!town??? Taly as well??? Even putting myself up there is really questionable.

Conf!town means mechanically cleared or so close to it that the odds of being mafia are basically zero. I guess (if you townread my play) you can consider me to fall in the second category of my definition as I auto-lose as scum if I'm the last one left.

Both Taly and Ausuka however are VTs and thus can NEVER be considered conf!town. Furthermore, I don't think one could say Ausuka is likely town either (town? sure. likely town? you better really back that up.)

17. In 2488:

ausuka is comedically out of her scumrange
taly's ate is extremely genuine and i dont think he's the type of scum player to fake that

Care to elaborate on that first opinion? I don't really buy the second that much either, but I guess I'll live with it...

18. In 2494:

i know ausuka's meta pretty well since lycanfire and i have discussed it over discord several times, ausuka is just... never scum here. she's like one of the most obvious scum players and she's 100% town here

While I'm sure Ausuka will say that they are town... Maybe I should ask them if she agrees with the strength of this statement...

Conclusions: I'm being semi-lazy, but I also feel that trying to sum it up wouldn't provide a fair assessment (for everyone else) of the slot, so I am just going to tell you to read my post in its entirety. Things I've noted as (No Comment) are things that I have elected not to give my opinion on, not because I don't have one, but because I want to keep this more objective as my opinion on the slot is currently really biased.

Spoiler: Mathdino's ISO

Mathdino's ISO:

1. In 1591:

I have no clue why simyk is hard defending Ausuka tbh
How confident are you in simyk btw

2. In 1605:

If Eddie Cane is town, however (and if Ausuka or Lovebird is town then Eddie is for sure town), mutant should never be lynched. I'm not personally townreading mutant but I defer to Eddie's knowledge base there.

3. In 1612:

That's also a massive portion of my scumread on Ausuka. I believe she's better than this as town and is downplaying the "Ausuka should be able to read Ircher" angle, and wouldn't implode the way she has. I'd push Ausuka harder but I expect her to 100% get vigged on Lovebird lynch and >50% get vigged on my call if enough players are willing to sheep me on Janitor.

A50 imploding happens as both alignments. In this case it feels town-motivated. He thinks highly of his own scumgame and I don't think he would bail on his team this game either.

4. In 1618:

Draft picks are useful. People just don't analyse it for some reason.
And I stand corrected in guessing 2 as the scummiest number. Sorry for going 2 instead of 1.

5. In 1622:

1 less scummy but still super scummy. This confirms the idea that if both 1 and 2 are town, it's highly likely that 11 is scum.

6. In 1623:

4. LB flipping scum clears Eddie Cane, which clears mutant.
If you flip town, you scumfirm {Iconeum, Mathdino, Ircher}.
If you flip scum, you townfirm me.

Hrm... Let's say Eddie, Mutant, and I are clear. Then that is 3 scum in {Taly, Ausuka, Davesaz, Iconeum}. Could the scum team be {Ausuka, Taly, Iconeum}, and I just didn't realize it?

7. In 1648:

1. The gamesolvers who will get nightkilled (in descending order of nightkill probability):
the worst, Mathdino, SIMYK, Eddie Cane.

2. The highly likely townies that will never get nightkilled and will probably not solve the game:
davesaz, Taly, mutantdevle

3. The scum high on the draft that we're too chicken to lynch today:
Iconeum, Lalendra, Ircher

4. The lynchbaity cannon fodder:
The Janitor, Myloninja, Ausuka, Lovebird

Remember, if you make it to LyLo and are town, scum expects you to lose the game for town. Don't be a dumb shit in LyLo. Read the game.
This is a townsided setup that towns keep losing because towns are dumb shits.

Remember that if Group 1 fails to deliver scum's heads on silver platters to you AND manages to live to LyLo, there is scum in Group 1. Even though I'm townreading them right now. Do What Mathdino Would Do, don't Do What D1 Mathdino Is Doing.

I would interpret this as meaning lynching in {Katy, Eddie} this next day cuz LyLo.

Everyone in Group 3 gets lynched or mechanically town-cleared this game. No exceptions. I don't care how much you like power roles. They're not all town. They will also not get nightkilled, because scum kills good players, not lynchbaity TPRs.

I can pretty much be mechanically town-cleared and aside from that, I'm likely getting killed. Lalendra already flipped, so that simply leaves Iconeum to take care of.

- There is never not scum in {Iconeum, The Janitor, Ircher, SIMYK}.

Janitor and I are town. That leaves the two most-likely people to be lynched tomorrow as having guaranteed scum: Katy and Iconeum.

- mutantdevle is always town if Eddie Cane is town. You could also sheep him on SIMYK.
- I have a secret towntell on Taly. He's town.
- Metadive davesaz before wagoning him later on. He gets scummier the more you wagon him, hilariously. He's probably town but feel free to recheck if he scumclaims by play down the line.

This suggests Iconeum/Katy/Ausuka as the most likely scum team tbh. I townread Eddie, so that clears Mutant. Taly is town based on Math's reads here. Davesaz is more likely town according to Math's reads here. That leaves only Iconeum/Katy/Ausuka. Things are different if Eddie is scum, but play aside, quite a few other setup-related factors suggests that Eddie is very likely town.

- the worst is in charge of Doing What Mathdino Would Do after I die. Eddie Cane is in charge of reads generation. This also means the worst is in charge of sheeping Eddie Cane when appropriate.

Okay, exactly what happened to Eddie generating reads? Cuz I don't think that ever happened.

- Jailkeepers, play defencively (don't hero the scum nightkill please) and stick to the lower half. Decent nightkills are {Taly, mutantdevle, Eddie Cane}.

- Lynch the following on sight unless supertownish: Vengeful, 1-shot PGO, 1-shot Redirector, 1-shot Commuter (if the original player rarely gets NK'd), Roleblocker, Neighborizer (useless after claiming, higher EV for scum than town). It is +EV to lynch all of these, trust me.

(I'm kinda glad this didn't actually happen...)

8. In 1761:

scum is in {Iconeum, Ircher, The Janitor, {Ausuka, Lovebird}}

Was this Mathdino's guess for all 3 scum? (Because that is no longer possible.) According to this, Ausuka warrants looking into.

9. In 1794:

look if the cop checks the same person that scum kills, just lynch the cop, fair?

10. In 1796:

eddie you keep setup speccing this based on scum doing what you would do
rather than what scum ACTUALLY tends to do, which is kill around spots 2-7 from the draft
VT kills are rare, i can only see scum killing you if ausuka flips scum (turning you into an IC)

11. In 1839:

like, clearly the jury has spoken. the ausuka wagon is almost entirely composed of people blindly sheeping me, and that's not a good position to be in for a wagon.

12. In 1844:

the worst is getting nightkilled, lalendra is close to conftown, and ausuka is getting vigged

of those, TW is the least bad choice, but the probability of not getting NK'd at spot #2 is minimal

13. In 1880:

and going from the evidence of what scumteams pick, that you've looked over and agreed with, iconeum has by far the highest scum equity, ESPECIALLY considering no one's actually townreading him

because of that, i'm in a position to really not trust iconeum's result. so i would prefer the cop to shoot for an inno rather than a guilty.

so i'm not saying i want the cop lynched later if they get an inno on the janitor
i'm saying i want the cop lynched literally tomorrow.

Food for thought: Iconeum didn't check Janitor because they knew Janitor was town and didn't want to get instalynched the following day. Meh, this is speculative.

14. In 1917:

It's extremely unlikely that Ausuka is scum with Eddie Cane, davesaz, or the real Neighborizer.

15. In 1942:

SIMYK is the best bet for deepwolf tbh

16. In 1981:

can it really be as simple as ircher/lalendra/janitor

Alas, all your reads are wrong (here)....

17. In 1987:

i just realised it's actually anti-scum in this setup to try to go for the #1 spot for the cop

18. In 2077:

does anyone else find it slightly difficult to believe that this many people went for tracker and neighborizer

considering those 2 roles were the first 2 claimed

19. In 2117:

eddie is practically conf, and so will i be

20. In 2153:

eddie should essentially be conftown

21. In 2161:

my meta on taly is no longer as solid

how confident are we on taly?

22. In 2187:

Promise to lynch janitor tomorrow no matter what
Iconeum after that if she doesn't flip roleblocker

Does this apply with the town!Janitor flip?

23. In 2188:

Taly might not be locktown, but Eddie Cane is
It's not worth checking Eddie, Eddie gets NK'd

Overall, I think Mathdino is pointing towards an Iconeum/Katy/Ausuka scumteam, which to be honest, doesn't sound that all unreasonable.

​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%)

Confirmed Neighborizer

- Role PM; Also, as long as I continue to successfully neighborize people, I can prove that I am not scum.

Dead:

1. Lovebird - Vanilla Townie
2. The Worst - Town Jailkeeper
3. Myloninja13 - Vanilla Townie
4. Lalendra - Town Rolecop
5. Mathdino - Town 1-Shot Vigilante
6. The Janitor - Vanilla Townie

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Brassherald

Eddie Cane

(+94%) - I think there is a chance that I am wrong on one of {Iconeum, Katy}, and if that were the case, I think this would be the next most likely scum tbqh. That said, I read the slot mostly as town currently, and Math claims that this slot is basically conf!town. So, I'm just going treat this slot as town because if this slot is scum, they deserve the win, and we really don't have time to be trying to sort this slot. With any hopes, they will be sorted by the night kill.

Mutantdevle

(+86%) - I have to wonder, if this slot is scum, why isn't Mutant a more controversial read? After considering my own read here as well as what I gleamed from Mathdino's ISO, I think I'm gonna go with town on this slot. His draft number and draft position help reinforce this read. Like Eddie, I think this slot is getting night killed sooner or later.

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Taly

(+65%) - Math says this slot is town. I originally thought this slot town, and nothing happened to change my read here. Overall, I'm going to say this slot is town.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Almost50

davesaz

(+40%) - Almost50 read as town. Davesaz reads as scum. I'm inclined to trust my Almost50 read more tbqh. That being said, I think I am fairly comfortable with giving this slot an overall townread. (This factors in the fact that Math was leaning more towards town here than scum.)

Ausuka

(-55%) - In general, her posts have been more town than they have been scum, but I feel like something is really off about this slot tbqh. Ausuka also has one of the towniest draft positions, but one of the scummiest numbers that is picked for the draft. And despite what Ausuka said may be that off-feeling for their posts, I think there is more to it. Math's ISO points towards an Katy/Iconeum/Ausuka scumteam, and I am inclined to put a good degree of faith into that idea.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

Katyusha

(-70%) - D1, this slot was town, no questions asked. But it is no longer D1, and the more I think about it, the more it seems to make sense simply that this slot is scum. Like, I know there was IRL issues, but I don't think that that alone was the reason for the fact that SIMYK stopped contributing content past day 1. I think it had to do in part with being mafia and not really having anything to contribute. Indeed, I think SIMYK was hoping the game would end earlier. Some other things to think about: both the draft position and this slot's pick for the draft number suggests this slot is scum. While Mathdino didn't point specifically at SIMYK!scum, he entertained the notion they were deep!wolfing, and really, PoE just points to this slot being scum.

Iconeum

(-74%)

Confirmed Cop

- So, let's think about this. His posting has definitely been lackluster at best; can one even say that he has legitimately scumhunted this game? In terms of draft numbers, his pick (#1) is fairly scummy but not condemning. There is also the fact that in 4/12 games, the #1 slot has been scum, which is one of the highest rates for a slot. That said, there is a thing to be said that 100% of cops have been town so far. Finally, looking into Mathdino's reads and observations, I think I can conclude that Iconeum would be a major scumread for Mathdino if he was still in the game. All in all, I think the evidence is overwhelming in favor of scum!Iconeum though I must admit that the 100% town cop rate is not something to take lightly.

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

[Ircher]

Whoops, I forgot this one as well:

Spoiler: Brassherald and Eddie Cane ISO

Brassherald / Eddie Cane ISO:

1. In 19:

Yo, I picked 6 because I hit a random number on my keyboard, figured it might work better than trying to think about it. (It didn't).

I kinda believe this actually.

2. In 405:

Her early posts are just a different feeling than I'm used to seeing from her as town. I remember read lists pretty early, quote walls early game, etc.

Yeah, I can see this, but I know Ausuka's activity isn't super consistent.

3. In 720:

never replaced into a scum slot, never going to

(except once. oops.)

I think Eddie would say this as either alignment...

4. In 734:

I agree with Mathdino's post below that scum didn't CC, so max of 1 scum in {Lovebird, Ausuka}, {Beef, Taly}, {Math, Jan}, {mutant, a50}. Its like night killing "for wifom!" - retarded and not something that ever happens in practice.

Quoted for reference purposes...

5. In 749:

Page 10: townread of Mutant. I've metadived him recently anyways and this feels like his town game, plus generally good content.

This is the bulk of Math's read on Mutant; he trusts Eddie's meta read to a very high degree.

6. In 753:

Page 17. Skimmed a fair bit of this. I think Ausuka and Ircher has a scum probably, definitely not SvS though.

Quoting this too for referencing...

7. In 850:

{

Mathdino

, Ausuka,

Lalendra, Myloninja13, The Janitor, Lovebird

,

Ircher

}

3 scum in here. Mathdino is probably not one of them.

(I added the coloring...) Wow, just how far off were we Day 1?

8. In 933:

How confident are you in town!Janitor, Simyk?

Oooh!!!

This has no bearing on Eddie's alignment, but this could be a point against the Katy/SIMYK slot. (I really need to stop putting off reading their ISO, but they have a high post count which is why I keep putting it off... Same for Eddie tbh...)

9. In 1583:

So, in the town side:
SIMYK: 7
Taly: 6
Dave: 5

Math: 5
Worst: 5

Mutant: 3

Ircher: 2

Ausuka: 2

Mylo: 1
Lalendra: 0
Lovebird: 0

And scum:

Lalendra: 6
Lovebird: 5

Ausuka: 4

Ircher: 3

Janitor: 3

Dave: 1

Mylo: 1

Iconeum: 1
SIMYK: 0

The Worst: 0

Taly: 0
Mutant: 0

Math: 0

And overall:
SIMYK: 7
Ausuka: 6
Dave: 6
Taly: 6

Lalendra: 6
Math: 5
Worst: 5

Ircher: 5

Lovebird: 5
Mutant: 3
Mylo: 2

(I added the coloring...) So this was Eddie's holistic scumhunting idea.... I don't think it amounted to anything D1, but I think that if we take a look at the overall section, one should notice that the people who made the list who are being talking about the least.... Are all town! Take this as you like... (Note: The overall section represents the total number of people expressing reads on each slot.)

Ircher appears in both lists multiple times, Ausuka appears in both lists multiple times, those are either scum driven mislynches OR they're scum. Town!Ircher = FoS Simyk, Lalendra, Mutant, Janitor. Town!Ausuka = FoS Lalendra, Math, Mutant, Lovebird.

(Quoting this for reference purposes primarily...)

10. In 1904:

because my vote is a mechanical guilty

(In regards to voting Lalendra...) --> Wait, wait, wait, how was the mod's response a mechanical guilty? Like, I'm not holding you to a dual standard here (because I know that I to some extent accepted it as did many other players), but since you are the one who pointed it out, I feel you need to have better in-sight to the way this is a mechanical guilty than others...

11. In 2264:

that kill is horse shit, i was going to probably try and lynch dino today for all of his bullshit
ah well
thanks scum!

Real or faked? (I'm starting to get a bad vibe from Eddie's ISO now after seeing how forcefully he was pushing the Lalendra lynch based on a so-called "mechanical guilty".

Be sure to interrogate him tomorrow for me

on it if I'm not alive to do so myself...)

13. In 2498:

last time there was a zero effort win town managed to lose

-fakegod

Yeah, so let's not repeat that mistake this game...

14. In 2558:

Math was getting paranoid too and Math knows who SIMYK is so that could be a partial NK explanation
shrUg

This doesn't register as town either...

Conclusion: I think it is better for you just to read the whole thing. Still, the end of his ISO is on the suspicious side imo which isn't good for my reads.

[Katyusha]

The only conceivable world where Ico and I are both town is one where the team is Taly/Davesaz/{Ausuka/Eddie}

Gonna go ahead and say that's irreconcilable with reality? I don't think that team's plan would be too awful (Taly takes 1-shot vig and fails, A50 tries neighborizer, 6 slot takes vengeful - ok maybe not taking n3 vig is awful but yeah) but Taly WAY more likely to be town than Ico here

pedit: will read next

[Ircher]

1: Iconeum (1) - Cop (Confirmed)

2: the worst (3) - Jailkeeper (Confirmed)

3: Lalendra (5) - Role Cop (Confirmed)

4: Ircher (11) - Neighborizer (Confirmed)

5: SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis/Kats (413) - VT, Universal Backup/Rolecop

6: Mathdino (2) - 1-Shot Vigilante (Confirmed)

7: The Janitor (2) - VT, Neighborizer

8: Beefster/Myloninja (4) - VT, Tracker (Confirmed)

9: Taly (4) - VT, Neighborizer
10: Almost50/Davesaz (8) - VT, Neighborizer;

Claim is consistent with play.

11: mutantdevle (8) - VT, Neighborizer

12: Ausuka (6) - VT, Neighborizer

13: Lovebird (6) - VT, Tracker (Confirmed)

14: brassherald/Eddie Cane (6) - VT, Tracker

Possible Scum Teams Assumptions (Based on the draft):
- Not all 3 scum are within the bottom 5 draft slots.
- No more than one scum is located in the bottom 3 draft slots.
- No two scum pick the same draft number.
- I'm not scum.

Possible Scum Teams:
1. Iconeum/Kats/Taly
2. Iconeum/Kats/Davesaz
3. Iconeum/Kats/Ausuka
4. Iconeum/Kats/Eddie
5. Iconeum/Taly/Davesaz
6. Iconeum/Taly/Ausuka
7. Iconeum/Taly/Eddie
8. Iconeum/Davesaz/Ausuka
9. Iconeum/Davesaz/Eddie
10. Kats/Taly/Davesaz
11. Kats/Taly/Ausuka
12. Kats/Taly/Eddie
13. Kats/Davesaz/Ausuka
14. Kats/Davesaz/Eddie
15. Taly/Davesaz/Ausuka
16. Taly/Davesaz/Eddie

Iconeum : 9 Possibilities
Kats : 9 Possibilities
Taly : 9 Possibilities
Davesaz : 9 Possibilities
Ausuka : 6 Possibilities
Eddie : 6 Possibilities

Take this as you like.

[Ausuka]

Ftr I don't believe Ico and Dave are a team. D3 made me lean Icon, N3 pushes me the other way. I personally believe ico v katy always has at least one scum.

[Ircher]

The scumteam possibilities considers the draft only and does not factor in gameplay; thus, it is a 99% objective depiction of what's possible and not possible.

[Katyusha]

Care to elaborate on that first opinion? I don't really buy the second that much either, but I guess I'll live with it...

Ausuka's just one of those people who can't emulate her towngame that well as scum - she waffles strangely and just posts in a really distinctive manner and is guilty of the "not reading the thread as deep" tell when she's scum - it's how I caught her in the one game we played together way back when. The Ausuka here lacks that entirely and I'm confident in my ability to read Ausuka via meta that I am conftowning her.

[Katyusha]

Ftr I don't believe Ico and Dave are a team

Is there a specific thing that makes you see this? I was honestly entertaining davesaz!town during the night but I didn't really get far with that beyond shower thoughts.

[Ausuka]

Ico jumped on dave in a way that doesn't feel SvS? And if it's an actual bus I think Ico could get better points than what he had. His case just kinda looks fabricated in a non-svs way.

[Ircher]

Key:

Mod-confirmed town

Mod-confirmed mafia

Myself

VC 1.4

The Janitor

(5) -

Mathdino

, Almost50 (Davesaz), Iconeum,

Beefster (Myloninja), mutantdevle

Almost50 (2) - SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (Katy), Brassherald (Eddie)
Ausuka (2) -

Lovebird, the worst

Beefster

(1) - Ausuka

Lovebird

(1) -

Ircher

Iconeum (1) - Taly

Not voting -

Lalendra, The Janitor

VC 1.8

The Janitor

(3) - Iconeum,

Beefster (Myloninja)

,

Ircher

Ircher

(3) - SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (Katy),

Mathdino, mutantdevle

Lalendra

(3) - Ausuka,

the worst

, Taly
Ausuka (2) -

Lovebird

, brassherald (Eddie)
Iconeum (1) - Almost50 (Davesaz)

Not voting -

Lalendra, The Janitor

VC 1.12

Lalendra

(5) -

the worst

, Taly,

Ircher

, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (Katy), Ausuka

Ircher

(2) -

Mathdino, mutantdevle

Ausuka (2) -

Lovebird

, Eddie Cane

The Janitor

(1) - Iconeum
Iconeum (1) - davesaz

Not voting -

Lalendra, The Janitor, Myloninja13

VC 1.14

Ircher

(3) -

mutantdevle

, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (Katy),

the worst

Lalendra

(2) - Taly,

Ircher

Lovebird

(2) - Iconeum, Ausuka
Iconeum (1) - davesaz
Taly (1) -

Lovebird

The Janitor

(1) - Eddie Cane

Not voting -

Lalendra, The Janitor, Myloninja13, Mathdino

VC 1.15

Ircher

(5) -

mutantdevle

, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (Katy),

Lalendra

, Eddie Cane,

the worst

Lalendra

(2) - Taly,

Ircher

Lovebird

(2) - Iconeum, Ausuka
Iconeum (1) - davesaz
Taly (1) -

Lovebird

Not voting -

The Janitor, Myloninja13, Mathdino

VC 1.16

Lalendra

(5) - Taly,

Ircher

,

the worst, Myloninja13

, Ausuka

Ircher

(3) -

mutantdevle

, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (Katy),

Lalendra

The Janitor

(3) -

Mathdino

, Eddie Cane, davesaz

Lovebird

(1) - Iconeum
Taly (1) -

Lovebird

Not voting -

The Janitor

VC 1.20

Lovebird

(6) [L-2] - Eddie Cane, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (Katy), Taly,

Lalendra, mutantdevle

, Ausuka

Lalendra

(5) -

Ircher

,

Myloninja13, Lovebird

, Iconeum,

the worst

The Janitor

(2) -

Mathdino

, davesaz

Not voting -

The Janitor

VC 1.24
Ausuka (5) -

Ircher

,

Lovebird, Mathdino

, Eddie Cane,

Myloninja13

Lovebird

(4) - Taly,

Lalendra, mutantdevle

, davesaz

Lalendra

(2) -

the worst

, Ausuka
davesaz (1) - Iconeum

Not voting -

The Janitor

, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (Katy)

VC 1.25
Ausuka (6) [L-2] -

Ircher

,

Lovebird, Mathdino, Myloninja13, Lalendra, mutantdevle

Lovebird

(6) [L-2] - Taly, davesaz, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (Katy), Ausuka, Eddie Cane,

the worst

davesaz (1) - Iconeum

Not voting -

The Janitor

Noting that the Ausuka-wagon is all-town (that is with ofc the assumption I am town).

VC 1.26 (LYNCH)

Lovebird

(8) [Lynch] - Taly, davesaz, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (Katy), Ausuka, Eddie Cane,

the worst

, Iconeum,

Ircher

Ausuka (5) -

Lovebird, Mathdino, Myloninja13, Lalendra, mutantdevle

Not voting -

The Janitor

VC 2.1

The Janitor

(4) -

Mathdino

, Ausuka, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (Katy),

Lalendra

Lalendra

(2) - Eddie Cane,

The Janitor

Not voting - Taly, davesaz, Iconeum,

Ircher

,

mutantdevle

VC 2.6

The Janitor

(5) [L-1] -

Mathdino

, Ausuka, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (Katy),

Lalendra

,

Ircher

Lalendra

(3) - Eddie Cane,

The Janitor

, Taly

Not voting - davesaz, Iconeum,

mutantdevle

VC 2.7

The Janitor

(4) [L-2] -

Mathdino

, Ausuka,

Lalendra

,

Ircher

Lalendra

(3) - Eddie Cane,

The Janitor

, Taly

Not voting - davesaz, Iconeum,

mutantdevle

, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (Katy)

VC 2.9 (LYNCH)

Lalendra

(6) [Lynch] - Eddie Cane,

The Janitor

, Taly, Ausuka, mutantdevle, Iconeum

The Janitor

(3) -

Mathdino, Lalendra

,

Ircher

Not voting - davesaz, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (Katy)

VC 3.9 (LYNCH)

The Janitor

(5) [Lynch] - Taly, Iconeum, Ausuka, davesaz, Eddie Cane
Iconeum (1) -

Ircher

Not voting -

mutantdevle

, Katyusha,

The Janitor

[Katyusha]

Noting that the Ausuka-wagon is all-town (that is with ofc the assumption I am town).

...Why would scum want to keep Ausuka alive? I think it's entirely conceivable that even though Lovebird is objectively always the better lynch there that the cw could be all town here and that alone is meaningless, but seeing that I want to investigate her ISO more to see if she was holding a pro-scum opinion or something. I'm assuming towncred isnt the plan here considering scum were more than happy to flip that entire lynch wagon eventually.

[Katyusha]

Also the D2 Lalendra lynch is 100% scum motivated, she was confirmed to NOT be a roleblocker and we absolutely needed to lynch within that dipole so that Janitor/My slot/Iconeum could be resolved before lylo

[Katyusha]

{Eddie, Taly, Ausuka, Iconeum}

^ unflipped on lalendra ^

forgot where davesaz stood on the issue but if he was in favor of any lynch besides janitor or me that's scummy for him ESPECIALLY because he was in 675