Large Normal 212: Korts' Geriatrics - Game Over @1831

[roflcopter]

this is what it looks like when someone so arrogant about their own prowess that they fakeclaimed ic to get one night of weak investigation can't admit they've made a terrible mistake

old man, what do you think will happen tomorrow if lycan is lynched and flips town even night cop? do you understand how turbofucked town is going to be if it lynches both investigation roles and goes into day four with zero dead scum?

i'm here for wagons on insanity, pine or axelrod

[Old Man]

I'm done talking to scum. I don't expect to get votes from you or Ginggie. Peace.

[Ginngie]

Old man, you don't understand optimal play at all.

If you think you're fucking dead set right, then sure, eventually in the game that'll come through

Stop focusing on the battle, and think of the war.

No one has cleared either of you two, we are just letting you self-sort. That's all it is man.

Easily explained.

I've had enough experience in bastard set ups and just shits and giggles happening, that I don't put all the eggs in one basket, and neither should you.


The only thing you could TRULY argue about, is the hito kill and I'll tell you that I'll look into it.

[Ginngie]

WAIT A MINUTE

why am I trying to explain optimal play to the grand almighty master of play already

My fuckin bad

[roflcopter]

WAIT A MINUTE

why am I trying to explain optimal play to the grand almighty master of play already

My fuckin bad

arguing with a brick wall is fun though right?

anyway let's lynch insanity

vote: insanity

[Kison]

UNVOTE: Old Man

I could definitely see both being scum. I think both town is pretty unlikely. I also think Old Man scum & Lycan town is unlikely - it would require a similar role or downright guessing.

If we want to resolve this today, lynching Lycan is the better move, but I am going to think it over a bit more.

Old Man, your explanation for fake claiming yesterday is loonyville. You said you did it because (1) You didn't want to get roleblocked and (2) You wanted to survive the day. You were at just four votes and not in any real danger of being lynched when you claimed. And what led you to believe you had a particularly great chance of being roleblocked. So great that it warranted lying and likely being lynched the next day by failing to hit scum with your supposed role?

I'm trying to understand why you would play your role this way as town and am having a hard time seeing it.

[Eddie Cane]

Ugh. I love mechanics, but calling this mechanics is like calling dice strategic.

so Eddie - What do you think? Is he really the cop?

I was pretty sure Lycan was scum before these claims.

Then I was pretty sure Old Man was gambitting town and was gonna do a hard defense, but we got Lycan's claim before I got the chance.

What makes this situation extra fucked? Lycan is, to reference Ginngie, a meticulous player. He's batshit insane (in a good way), but meticulous. If he's scum, and its NOT with Old Man (an unlikely but possible scenario), then that cop claim is so ridiculously suboptimal its unreal. Lycan was a likely lynch today; Old Man bailed him out and was being quicklynched before his main accuser Magna even came online. We are assuming scum!him claimed cop in response to Old Man...

so this means he's:
-confirming old man is a gunsmith,
-making it so old man is very likely not getting lynched today,
-leaving a town PR alive Lycan's team needs to kill,
-leaving himself far more vulnerable today,
-taking old man out of the lynchpool and probably permanently,
-the alternative having been Old Man getting lynched today and probably Lycan tomorrow.

Like. The ridiculous suboptimal play is hard for me to grasp. I've lost to thinking scum can't be as stupid as they are (sorry Lycan <3), meh.

The problem here is how wildly unlikely it is for them to both be town. Old Man had a 1/13 chance of targetting Lycan if they're both town, I guess that isn't insanely low but its lower than I want to accept.

Lycan on the other hand would have had to be that okay with his lynch yesterday as a PR, or he has balls of steel. He didn't even vote his counterwagons (Axel and if you count it KMD).

Old Man on the other hand fakeclaimed as town UNNECCESSARILY. Like.

He was not even l-2. He had, like, 2 or 3 votes IIRC. Maybe 4 or 5. And he "fakeclaimed" D2 IC to ensure a Gunsmith result.

Leaving my vote on Lycan. Whoever's town here should probably quit mafia. I joined this game to see some quality old players and not the garbage people around nowadays, off to a great start.

#ShitorScum - when #DumborScum isn't passionate enough (tm)

[Kison]

Sure, it would make sense to ask rofl for an explanation once or twice to see if he could change your mind.

But after rofl is clearly not willing to give an explanation, why continue to keep asking for an explanation, if you didn't find rofl suspicious at all?

Meant to respond to this yesterday:

Rofl was basically not playing the game, so I kept asking. Once he started playing & still didn't answer is when I figured he was just vibing & had no tangible reason.

Why? Because I wanted an answer. For the reason I stated before. I'm not sure what's weird about this.

[Eddie Cane]

(1) Old Man Town/Lycan Scum
(2) Old Man Scum/Lycan Town
(3) Both Town
(4) Both Scum

1 means Lycan decided to try a super weird and bad fake claim with an awful risk:reward skew rather than accept his death with a town PR mislynch (and day 3 is the most common Bus Day anyways)
2 means Old Man is very probably a scum!rolecop or a scum!gunsmith, real claimed odd night X, and 1/11 times this is a reasonable scenario.
3 is the same as above, he's a real gunsmith, and 1/13 times this is a reasonable scenario.
4 means they felt the need to do some desperate gambit. Yknow, Hito kill does work w this as he was hard pushing both IIRC (OM before the claim). However, this is a really fucking balls to the walls risky gambit (one town Gunsmith or Cop wrecks the whole thing, even other town invests like Neo). Only works if they think they can't win without going crazy, basically limiting the third to someone who they conceive as a likely lynch.

the common theme between all 4: whatever the truth is and with the exception of 4 sometimes, there's some ridiculously suboptimal play from somebody.

[Eddie Cane]

I'm mostly just like where is the scum outside of those two?

This is a big thing for me too. There's a lot of townie people. If they're both town, there really isn't much room for a scum team.

I like this post though.

you like it twice?

Really, did you guys actually think that he would roll over and claim scum?

I thought he'd deny having a gun and let the "gunsmith" get mislynched if he was scum, tbh. Lol.

Hey Ginngie, congrats, if Old Man is town you're no longer the person in this game with the dumbest gambit!

Why on earth would Korts give town a Gunsmith then give someone else a Cop? Isn't it redundant? Does nobody realize that not only did Lycanfire coincidentally claim the one thing that would give him an out upon being guiltied, but he is also technically counter-claiming me? If anything, my Gunsmith was probably meant to return a red herring on CoolDog's Paranoid Gun Owner's claim, not on a redundant cop on my top scumread. Please.

If Lycan's scum its really not for this, lol. Even/odd invests are not weird, especially if one can get a false result on the other.

You may be wondering why I have been checking into the game much more infrequently than at game start. Well, I am beginning to lose interest in this game, especially when everyone couldn't even consolidate on a lynch with a whopping ONE MONTH deadline, and proceeded to generate a flashwagon on town instead of lynching obvious scum while I was away. It certainly dampens the spirit.

The month of lurking is annoying. Don't act superior with your quality play so far though.




k burd now, gonna go to work. this has been

fun

[Pine]

Someone tell me the case on Insanity? She's in my PoE pool but I haven't done an ISO dive

[Pine]

Ginngie

PJ was Town, this looks like Ginny's Towngame

Lycanfire

Tyson was Townish, claim is Townish

roflcopter

Strong TR from early game

Old Man

Town by claim
Kison

MagnaofIllusion

Town by play
insanity018

Tammy

Thoroughly redeemed chamber's slot
Firebringer
Eddie Cane

Axelrod

Caught a Towntell

CooLDoG

Probably Town by claim

Pine

I've seen my role PM

Kison-Has played a tight game. I don't have meta on him.
Insanity-I don't have a good read on her, I've been focusing on other reads.
Firebringer-Confident scumread.
Eddie-I can never read Eddie.

My vote is on Fire.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok so now that OldMan has chimed in on Lycan’s claim I can talk a little about it. I can see either one being scum just on the basis of the claims. OldMan could be a RoleCop who targeted Lycan and took all the time in the world making his claim today. And Lycan could certainly be scum who counter-claimed with the much easier role to fake that makes sense as Town (Cop over Vig). Seems unlikely that this is one over-complicated bus on OldMan’s part given both being scum means they risk getting counterclaimed by an actual possible investigation role. Not totally out of the question given who OldMan is. But unlikely. And not impossible that they are both Town who have just played bad games so far.

But based on the reactions to the claim I’d lean heavily that Lycan is much more likely to be scum of the two. He has no hesitation to believe the claim of OldMan even when voicing reasons why it could be faked. He 100% believes the claim. Much more likely to come from scum who have no reason to doubt the guilty on them.

OldMan’s logic at 1011 regarding why the fake-claim is, at the most charitable, stupid if he is Town. But given who I believe he is I don’t find it outside of Towngame. But his consistency in wanting Lycan dead probably speaks to a Town mindset. He’s putting the veracity of his claim on the line in the event Lycan is Town.

Overall I find the discussion of “what is reasonable” about the two claims pretty useless on Day 2 with two VT flips for Town players to be engaging in. Far more games are lost by far than won with players thinking they understand the setup with a very sketchy picture.

If I vote in the duo it is probably for Lycan I just really need to mull over how likely it is for Lycan to be scum and for the scum team to have left a hypo-Town OldMan who was the driving force for Lycan yesterday alive even without the now revised claim. For the moment -

UNVOTE: OldMan

--

In other news …

Axel’s analysis at 959, specifically regarding Ginnie, is suspect. The conclusion that scum Ginnie has no reason to unvote him even if Lycan is Town is baffling. Scum Ginnie has reasonable motivation to move off Axel at that stage if both are Town – not participating in a mislynch that looked possible if less likely than Lycan. But this VCA manipulation doesn’t even come into Axel’s analysis. He just justifies that Ginnie is Town regardless. Similar with her Tammy analysis in 962 – it looks further like he’s trying to justify a Tammy read awkwardly with bad wagon analysis when Tammy’s play seems pretty Town on its strengths without all that wordage. Further with 964 – that he seems willing to cop that he can’t come to a conclusion on Pine for “baby” reasons makes that entire post more or less IIoA.

End result – I still think Axel stands a good chance at being scum if Lycan / OldMan is just batshit bad luck mixing with bad play. If Lycan is scum … much less likely and out of my pool for the time being.

--

Eddie’s speculation at 956 sets my teeth on edge as inside knowledge leaking inadvertently.

Pine I’m putting down to Null at this point. Too many posts today like 999 (no, ROFL has it correct that Axel’s post isn’t game-solvey) and 1029 shows he’s not engaging in any critical thought that either of the claims might be fake. If both OldMan and Lycan are Town then he probably stands as a suspect.

[Pine]

Awwww, MoI, be my friend!

Nah I'm just lazy this game.

[Firebringer]

Firebringer-Confident scumread.

Go on....

because from where i am standing this is a complete OMGUS scumread over everything i said about you yesterday.

[Lycanfire]

you considered the motivations of what marble might be doing and looked into it, which is different from what you said here and where I'm going huh because there re-evaluation, here you say more information is bad for reads. The belief in reevaluation/lack of belief in reevaluation is what I'm trying to figure out. How does that not align with your other statement I quoted about you bullshitting as scum while as town there is no need to?

More information is bad if you're not around to sort it. Being told to RTFT to me was the same as telling me that I was sticking my nose where it didn't belong. It didn't actually

do

anything. For instance Moi insinuated that my question to him was already answered, but what he really wanted me to do was get to the part where OM claimed. My question wasn't actually answered (how do you feel about OM doing this townie thing). I think the point was that Moi still scumread the then IC-claimed OM and that should somehow tell me his opinion of X townie thing. Hito full stop didn't want to hear about Pine, and I felt like Pine's answer didn't actually solve Chamber's replace out.

I don't understand why Pine not giving a shit about me as a person means that we're not partnered? And this is something I was thinking about overnight because your original stance on our slots being partnered and taking each other to lylo and then chamber just being so disheartened that Pine got after him about the Eddie meta question doesn't make sense to me. Chamber had offered up some pretty choice barbs to Pine - you've got not only the join date one but the town hunting thing - so why would chamber become so down that Pine sniped back to him about his meta request on Eddie get him to fizzle further and further until he replaced out mean they were partners? Even if you don't believe it now because of something Pine said to me, I don't understand your thought process there.

I went back and forth with insanity about this. It's that Pine's interference with Chamber was hilariously anti-town and I needed to justify it in some way. It could have been a chainsaw for Eddie Cane but that still didn't explain the immediate nature of Pine's response. To me it seemed S+S and that Pine was trying to get free towncred for pushing the envelope against scum. It wasn't that I thought these slots were going to lylo, it's that I thought Pine was setting himself up to look good if Chamber were to flip. When I finished my re-read I saw your entrance and Pine's response and revised my read on your slot.

why do you think that insanity is town?

She was one of the few that gave a shit about what I was saying D1 even if she was combating what I was saying. My main gripe with her is her awful associatives with Axel, but I think Axel is town.

There were a group of people saying she was lynchable. At that point I felt like you and roflcopter made insanity an acceptable SR and Hito plainly fingered her as scum on a KMD townflip right afterwards.

he is also technically counter-claiming me?

Opposite, really, I think you definitely have an Odd night role and felt it was safe to claim.

Leaving my vote on Lycan. Whoever's town here should probably quit mafia. I joined this game to see some quality old players and not the garbage people around nowadays, off to a great start.

I can’t be a pessimist because I am alive. The question you gotta ask yourself –the question the white population has to ask itself—is why was it necessary to have scum in the first place. Because I’m not scum, I’m a man. But if you think I’m scum, it means you need it. And you gotta find out why. The future of the country depends on that.

[meth]

This 1/13/1/11 math nonsense isn't real. If OM thought I was scum or a PR, then almost every time I would be investigated.

After the very beginning I scum leaned Tywin,

but Lycan kind of redeemed the slot

. With Lycan redeeming the slot less and Hito dead (a very incriminating kill) I'm very happy lynching there today.

[Lycanfire]

"IC claim"

Pro: Roflcopter, Eddie Cane, insanity, Axel, Hitogorishi, Tammy, Lycanfire
Indifferent: Kmd, Ginngie
No opinion: firebringer, Cooldog, Morality
Anti: Pine, Kison, Moi, TL, PJ

I want to lynch in that last group {Pine, Moi} + add Eddie Cane. Kison is likely scum on an OM scumflip. 1080 is basically the scum dream with resolving the claims with lynches instead of reasoning.

Still feeling confident in my reads sans Hito. I want to know what the results of Pine's reread did for him. Josh is having to be dragged to game solve mountain when he's a player that needs reasons to rope people. Moi's 1087 seems to push morale for a lynch on me without selling the horse to go with the wagon. The reasoning isn't there (I believe that scum!OM wouldn't specifically claim Odd-night if he didn't infer that he had a counterpart to my role), neither is the vote. Making part of day about why OM wasn't killed is suspect too.

VOTE: Eddie Cane

Gonna squat on this for some positivity.

[Firebringer]

OTE: Eddie Cane

This is the second worst vote you can possibly do.

Get off town before I change my mind about not lynching within the self resolving roles.

[Pine]

MoI - No? You're fantastic when scum, so I don't thoroughly trust my TR of you. Take that as the compliment it is intended.

Fire - Your head is cozy and warm. But I'm worried you're scum. </3

Post 142 I started suspecting you for disingenuous buddying, Fire, it's going to take a bit more than that to paint my longstanding read as recent OMGUS.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If anything, my Gunsmith was probably meant to return a red herring on CoolDog's Paranoid Gun Owner's claim, not on a redundant cop on my top scumread. Please.

This is the one part of OldMan’s current claim process that gives me significant pause in my assessment that he is more likely Town behavioral-wise. Because this makes no sense (it is absolutely moronic to say a PGO is the “red herring” to a Gunsmith) from a plain old-Town Odd Night Gunsmith position considering how OldMan has gone out of his way to explain how much smarter a player he is than the rest of us plebs.

Do you realize that if Lycan lied about his role, he is by definition scum?

But the difference, is, in your theory, even if I am telling the truth or lying about my role, I am by definition town?

[

The bolded is a big old nope dead stop.

--

Pine you will always be my friend but you have to know by now I have a huge aversion to using lazy as an excuse … for example if you want to point to posts that actually look like game-solving from Axel 1061 and 1062 do fit the bill.

Odd-night even-night makes it make sense. A straight cop or gunsmith would be mutually exclusive, but splitting the robust investigator into two, with some red herrings, makes it sensible.

So Pine I want you to talk through the implications of what you are saying here.

What roles would be Red Herrings for each role?
What roles would be False Clears for each role?

After you consider those read 956 in light of the answers to the above questions and tell me what conclusions you might draw. Thanks!

--

I believe that scum!OM wouldn't specifically claim Odd-night if he didn't infer that he had a counterpart to my role

Well if you actually think this and are Town … the only reaction I can muster is …



Really. Because why wouldn’t scum faking an investigative role want to minimize the amount of bullshitted claims they have to justify? Odd Night just means he as scum would not have to fake another Gunsmith result (or use his likely real RoleCop ability to fabricate one) until Day 4 even without “Lol, roleblocked” as a possible escape hatch.

So let me ask you Lycan – why did you float the idea that he himself would not have to be the RoleCop as scum when Korts has already specifically told us scum don’t have Daytalk? He’d have no way to have the information on you as scum without he himself being the role since results come AFTER night ends and PTs get closed.

[insanity018]

Not gonna lie - Both of the claims really threw me and I haven't figured out which I believe at this stage.

I agree that it is possible to have 1/2 gunsmith with 1/2 cop. It's probably a good setup for reducing swing in case one dies early.

And that Old Man was like "oops" had to be prodded. Like if I got a guilty result I'd be in here post haste and he's like salsa dancing over there in the corner while he knows damn well we're all sitting here waiting on his confirmation.

I found that I agreed with this from Tammy. But then Old Man's response in 1057 seemed plausible.

He has no hesitation to believe the claim of OldMan even when voicing reasons why it could be faked. He 100% believes the claim. Much more likely to come from scum who have no reason to doubt the guilty on them.

I thought this was an interesting point from Magna as well.

[insanity018]

Sure, it would make sense to ask rofl for an explanation once or twice to see if he could change your mind.

But after rofl is clearly not willing to give an explanation, why continue to keep asking for an explanation, if you didn't find rofl suspicious at all?

Meant to respond to this yesterday:

Rofl was basically not playing the game, so I kept asking. Once he started playing & still didn't answer is when I figured he was just vibing & had no tangible reason.

Why? Because I wanted an answer. For the reason I stated before. I'm not sure what's weird about this.

Did you expect that eventually rofl would give a sufficient answer?

If the rofl stuff isn't intended to put pressure, I now think that your ISO is concerning because of the lack of alignment-indicative questioning.

[Pine]

MoI plz don't make me tryhard here.

[Pine]

I'll answer your stuff when I get home jeez

[Korts]

bump