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Post #204 (isolation #14) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:44 pm
Postby PenguinPower »
In post 200, 123456789 wrote:I honestly don't know about Penguin, but they tend to be a bit on the lurky/"casual" side of mafia as well as both alignments (I think).
Not even close to true. Don't try to meta read me if you "think."
Only reason I'm not voting you is because I want you to prove your vig claim tonight.
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Post #208 (isolation #15) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:50 pm
Postby PenguinPower »
In post 207, 123456789 wrote:Pedit2: Newbies replace out all the time when the roll scum. Someone go find the Matrix6 stats page by Toomai; I'm pretty sure he documents that there.
46.8% as town; 56.3% as scum.
Do you find that to be statistically significant in this singular situation given the rationale provided?
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Post #209 (isolation #16) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:51 pm
Postby PenguinPower »
In post 207, 123456789 wrote:It's not a meta read because I didn't ascribe alignment to you; it's just an impression read which is slightly different; it is a way of me saying that I think X is how you play the game (without actually knowing.)
Ok. Then we'll go with it's inaccurate, and I'm not sure why you brought it up.
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Post #230 (isolation #22) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:12 pm
Postby PenguinPower »
In post 226, 123456789 wrote:Pedit: Less than half of newbies replace out in Matrix6:
Town Newbies 38.9% 46.8%
Scum Newbies 43.5% 56.3%
Total Newbies 39.9% 48.9%
First column is slots, second is players. We're talking players.
It also doesn't differentiate whether its a site flake or for other legitimate reasons. This is a useless discussion, and I won't participate in it any further.
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Post #309 (isolation #27) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:56 am
Postby PenguinPower »
In post 297, vulcan logician wrote:2) If you absolutely must lynch me, don't take me past L-2 until I can come back and say a few things. (No, I'm not IC or anything, but I have some parting advice for town that I'd rather give on D2 if at all possible).
Anything else you want to say a part from everything else you said after this?
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Post #318 (isolation #29) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:16 pm
Postby PenguinPower »
In post 316, vulcan logician wrote:But now consider the possibility that I'm town. That means that D-1 definitely will be a mislynch. Right now in the lynch pool, there are 5 townies, 1 scum. At random, that's a 1/6 chance of hitting scum. Let's wait a day. Then it becomes a 1/5 chance. And we only improve from there.
From a purely logical perspective we can only gain by doing the no lynch first.
The logical perspective is to give scum a smaller chance to hit the IC as a NK, not to reduce the lynch pool.
My main hiccup with the no lynch, is that I have a gut feeling that scum already knows who the IC is, so I'd rather just lynch you today.
You now said that your interactions with 1234 made you look Townie, but when asked to elaborate, you walked it back. You keep saying that you aren't trying to save your own skin, but everything you state is in an effort to do so. You said that before you got to L-2 (which you were already at) to wait because you had stuff that you would rather state tomorrow, but if needed you would state today. When given that chance...it was only that you were just a mislynch. That's hardly something that needed to wait until tomorrow, let alone you being at L-2 today.
What do you think a no lynch will accomplish, Smart?
If we want to get to 3p LYLO, which has the fewest scum possibilities, we need to NL at some point. Better to do it now so that scum have the least information about who the IC is (and about people's reads) when they make their free kill.
I agree with with Smart's assessment here. Look at the gamestate. There is no clear obv-town at the moment. We
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Post #329 (isolation #34) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:39 pm
Postby PenguinPower »
Lynching rules should be consistent across all forms, imo. If you go with a majority, it should all be majority. If you go with plurality, it is what it is.
A majority for a lynch, 50% for no lynch, or no majority for no lynch is not an ideal rule. As I said, it is what it is...but the mod didn't even realize it, so I question the intent.
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Post #335 (isolation #38) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:01 pm
Postby PenguinPower »
In post 334, Not_Mafia wrote:It's different to twilight as the mod has posted a VC that should have ended the day, as far as he's concerned the thread should already be locked and we should be in night
Mod didn't end it though, and ultimately mod has discretion.
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Post #337 (isolation #39) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:05 pm
Postby PenguinPower »
In post 336, Not_Mafia wrote:I'm not arguing about whether day should be ended or not, I'm saying I don't think it's scummy that S_S just posted the rule
Mod errors/corrections (outside of V/LA) should usually be handled via PM. Less impact to the game.
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Post #361 (isolation #47) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:57 am
Postby PenguinPower »
Hi, vulcan.
Why don't you want to start with Rampage. He pushed you (and was actually voting you at eod) over a no lynch. So did N_M. Why me over them?
I find you trying to push me based on NAI comments to be pretty bad, so it adds to my scum read on you from yesterday. I'll wait til the rest have a chance to weigh in, but consider my vote on you.
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Post #368 (isolation #50) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:28 am
Postby PenguinPower »
In post 366, vulcan logician wrote:No particular reason other than going after two people at a time is rather cumbersome... now, why don't you answer my question?
Why is N_M super null, and why do you not want to start with Rampage.
Should be easy to answer, and saying "Gotta start somewhere" is not an answer given your previous comments.
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Post #370 (isolation #51) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:31 am
Postby PenguinPower »
In post 369, vulcan logician wrote:A few things also struck me now that I think about it. The pressure was already on me, and you joined in last... but you seemed to want my lynch a little more than the other two. Even after the no lynch was put on the table for examination (the brainchild of smart, who iirc suggested it after my wagon formed). Why did you want to lynch me over the no lynch? It doesn't make sense.
In post 318, PenguinPower wrote:The logical perspective is to give scum a smaller chance to hit the IC as a NK, not to reduce the lynch pool.
My main hiccup with the no lynch, is that I have a gut feeling that scum already knows who the IC is, so I'd rather just lynch you today.
You now said that your interactions with 1234 made you look Townie, but when asked to elaborate, you walked it back. You keep saying that you aren't trying to save your own skin, but everything you state is in an effort to do so. You said that before you got to L-2 (which you were already at) to wait because you had stuff that you would rather state tomorrow, but if needed you would state today. When given that chance...it was only that you were just a mislynch. That's hardly something that needed to wait until tomorrow, let alone you being at L-2 today.
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Post #375 (isolation #53) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:01 am
Postby PenguinPower »
I mean, we had a whole exchange around the replace out nonsense, and then he suicided when I just told him to use his vig...so, yeah. No interaction at all.
Even if you interpret that to mean he didn't interact with me much, why does that make me scum? Distancing?
{vulcan, S_S}
Scum is in here. Strongly leaning vulcan based on yesterday, the night kill, and his posting so far today.
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Post #379 (isolation #55) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:06 am
Postby PenguinPower »
Rampage is town for his posting in the first 4-5 pages of the game. He hasn't really done anything to make me waver on my read from that, and his support for a vulcan lynch gives him townpoints.
Can you expand on your vulcan town read beyond 123456789 interacting with him?
In post 381, Something_Smart wrote:Also, vulcan's defeatism and willingness to be lynched at the end of day 1 seems very genuine. Rather than arguing against his lynch, he basically said "If you are gonna lynch me, this is what you should do...", which is a very towny mindset.
I disagree. He had been fighting it quite hard, and when pressed had to walk things back. I myself have used the defeatist tactic to get out of a lynch several times. As I said before, nothing that he has said has really felt genuine.
In post 382, Something_Smart wrote:Also, Penguin, do you not think Rampage would push a mislynch on vulcan if he were scum?
Of course he would, but given my earlier read on him, I had no reason to assume he was scum pushing a mislynch.
In post 383, TheRampage wrote:So if not Vulcan and not you, then I guess that leaves N_M and Penguin. In my eyes, this is won.
That's a confident complete 180 based on one post that could either be interpreted as either scum or town.