Large Normal 212: Korts' Geriatrics - Game Over @1831

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna

Is doing the exact same thing he is doing yesterday. Picking and choosing that posts that suits his point of view and ignoring anything else.

@Magna, in that post you linked as "active lurking", I literally stated that I currently don't know which claims I believe.

Oh I see, so specifically referencing a post that exemplifies what I consider active lurking is “picking and choosing” …

Insert Rolling Eyes Gif Here

And actively saying you are drawing no conclusions in a post doesn’t make it not an active lurking post. Why you think that …

But for kicks and grins lets talk about all your posts from today and how little actual attempts to solve the game are contained their-in, shall we?

985 – Open the day with some softball comments to Gingie, Rofl and Kison after bemoaning the “wagon” on you. Looking ahead of these questions that were supposedly meant to assess the scumminess there is no direct followup when neither Rofl or Ginngie responds. I find this especially troublesome that if those questions were supposed to help you sort them why did you not even bother to press either of them about it?

Also the “oh a wagon on me” seems pretty empty to me given you posted this right before EOD1 –

Honestly, I'm so tired of dealing with this game that I wouldn't even complain if you decided you wanted to flash lynch me.

986 – Let me summarize this post –

Kison is scum because he doesn’t scum read Rofl and you think he should.
Rofl is “still” scummy.
Lycan is a scum read but you have lots of posts that make you think he could be Town (aka Fence Sitting)
Gut Town reads on Eddie and Axel (but Pine is scum if Axel is)

Superficially that post has many words but when you distill it down you have basically 4.25 solid reads. I also want to address the following –

I think I'm one of the easier mislynches in this playerlist

, so I think it would be less likely that scum would try to buddy me early in the game.

The bolded I think doesn’t pass the smell test since you faced minimal pressure Day 1. And the unbolded I don’t think makes any sense from coming from Town – buddying up to “weaker” players by scum is much more effective than trying to buddy stronger players. Strong Town players tend to die. But “weaker” Town players generally are left to be endgamed.
1006 – This whole post is basically “I disagree with how Kison approaches the game re: Rofl so he’s scum”.

1095 – So I’ve already stated this is IIoA fluff but let’s address it – there is no point saying you can’t come to a conclusion because no Town player should be that sure. There is possibility space for pretty much all permutations of Scum and Town between Lycan and OldMan. And your Tammy comment is basically “I agree with Tammy, but OldMan’s response is reasonable” which is just empty posting and your comment that my post was “interesting” is also empty. What does interesting mean? The answer is nothing – it wants to look like it is saying something but it abdicating actually taking a position.

1096 – More soft back and forth with Kison. And the following –

If the rofl stuff isn't intended to put pressure, I now think that your ISO is concerning because of the lack of alignment-indicative questioning.

You are supposedly already reading Kison as scum for his Rofl interactions so why does his prodding of Rofl for content now make his ISO concerning? It wasn’t already suspicious back at 986?

1127 – Even more softball questioning, this time to Lycan. The part I find problematic is the following –

What is currently your read of Old Man? This post above states both town and scum possibilities.

Why should Lycan having a hard time parsing whether to believe OldMan’s claim be an issue for you since you yourself just stated you have a hard time parsing the claims? Seems odd for you to not be able to solidly commit to a conclusion yet but to be dinging someone else for the exact same action.

So in summary your posts today look to me like scum pretending to scum-hunt with soft questioning and little follow-through when players don’t respond to your questions.


--

Still no time for this. Sorry. Maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow. I suppose I could do one of those V/LA things, but I'm not actually on vacation.

Also would still vote here if that wagon was more active than Insanity’s BTW

[roflcopter]

idk why my vote wasn't already back on here tbh

vote: insanity

[Korts]

CooLDoG, Firebringer, Lycanfire and Kison have been prodded.

[Kison]

YO! Still alive.

So in summary your posts today look to me like scum pretending to scum-hunt with soft questioning and little follow-through when players don’t respond to your questions.

I'd say this is how I felt when I reread the first 12 pages of the game.

Insanity

: Why should I not vote you again & who should I go after instead? Is the MoI / Rofl dream team a lie? Are they scum running a mislynch train on you? Come on, instill a want in me.

That sketchy old man baby guy thing should be coming back from his V/LA today & he's got some things to answer for.

[Pine]

Magna y u no vote Fire with me?

[roflcopter]

Magna y u no vote Fire with me?

we are very busy lynching your scumpartner sry

[Pine]

Rofl you make me sad

There is no universe in which I am scum bro! So how about you back-up off my tits?

[Pine]

Also explain Insanity!scum. I've asked at least once for this and never got a good reply

[roflcopter]

magna just made a pretty goddamn solid post on insanity!scum

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna y u no vote Fire with me?

Because when I wanted pressure on Fire yesterday it was made clear to me that no-one else was really interested. I am not going to just be tilting at windmills pointlessly and Tammy has given me council that what was bugging me the most is probably a personality dispute as opposed to me seeing scumminess.

But sell me again on your Fire case because I've been talked out of scum reading him. Maybe I need to be pointed in the correct direction as to what makes him scum other than what I always thinks makes him scum.

[Lycanfire]

You keep calling me scum and even backtrack on that. If all you want to do is call me scum, I'm questioning that in itself.

So why don't you quote where I've called you scum and where I've backtracked?

Can’t answer the question?

It's a dumb question

---

Let's build some consensus and go forward:

We can either lynch within OM or myself. 9/10 times, it's probably better to lynch me first. I won't like it, but I'd like it less if I was blindsided with a speedlynch. Pen your name if this is your jam.

With the matter of avoiding future asspulls averted I'd like for us to move forward.

I want to lynch in Eddie Cane/Moi/Pine right now.

Eddie Cane
- Lacks spirited push. The closest he was to his town meta was his vote on kmd and meta dive on Hito. Then his vote landed on me. See my arrow-missing-the-mark comment. Josh doesn't withhold the goods.
- Everything is supplementary evidence to Josh (Hito being killed, OM's claim, mathematics). He's beating the same low-information drum that isn't telling what motive he has wrt to OM's align. It's equally likely that this was a planned exercise or that was a coincidence. Yes, I did the meth.

Moi
- Don't like how he was directing Pine onto myself or Axel yesterday.
- His progression on Axel sucks. He goes from implying scum jumped on the wagon and that he's playing his town game, to saying his grace period is over. Moi gets spicy read developed which feels more prompted by Axel's eye gore response in post 695 and less about his case made

two weeks before

which boils down to "Pine asked Moi who to vote, Moi voted Axel, Pine voted Axel".
- I feel like 1094 was shit stirring to measure who was up to lynch OM today. I considered the possibility Moi is outlining here, but I think OM is town through play and I'm mostly happy with the stances people took in the case of him being scum.
- Basically, Moi's stance makes more sense if he knows OM is town.

Pine
- 130 rubs me the wrong way even if I don't think it's S+S.
- I don't like how he showed some support for my read on Hito day 1 and voted myself, then KMD when I was establishing that Hito was scummy. I was wrong on Hito, which is why I'm trying to not to read into the RTFT business as a means

not

to poke at Pine, but he never went for Hito himself. SUBTLE SUBTEXT
- Basically if he's town I need somebody to spell it out for me, because I've had several instances lately where I dragged the town to a lynch (or would have, god willing) in order to flip a townie while everybody was screaming me down not to do it. I need that here, because when I walk through Pine's posts my skin crawls with how he talks to Chamber, then he goes on to take positions already made acceptable for him.

Tammy: how are those townreads coming along?

[Eddie Cane]

- Lacks spirited push.

I rarely hard push in my more serious games, but you know this because none of my posting towards Mulch even was hard pushing as Ginngie can testify to, I pushed him but passive aggressively because I didn't want to do a huge argument until he forced my hand.

The closest he was to his town meta

And with our 0 games together and you not reading much of the TM games you weren't in, you know my "town meta" how?

his vote on kmd and meta dive on Hito.

Although idk about KMD but I've definitely meta'd as scum before, though generally with less effort than that (I tend to just brush people off as town meta rather than actually putting points).

Everything is supplementary evidence to Josh (Hito being killed, OM's claim, mathematics).

Speaking of my town meta,

Hito being killed

only implicates me if

you

are scum, so if I were the kind of person who believed in bonafide scumslips thats a thing,

OM's claim

is supplementary to me being scum how? OM townreads me and you aren't even calling him scum, there's no connection,

mathematics

makes me scum how? if you mean my math argument for you being scum, that's definitely more in my town meta that you have never experienced and you are damn lucky I'm playing with a bunch of chucklefucks who are giving you a by because they don't understand setup spec (I'll get to that).

He's beating the same low-information drum that isn't telling what motive he has wrt to OM's align.

calling you scum is a low information drum? the motive part is just outright nonsense lmao

It's equally likely that this was a planned exercise or that was a coincidence. Yes, I did the meth.

and to sum up your points: nothing. this says nothing.



why do you have "real" points for why the others are scum and for me you just babble on about nonsense? at least for Pine and Moi you have points with debatable quality.

[Eddie Cane]

Let me go over this one more time.

We went into night with 14 players.

AKA, 11 town and 3 scum very probably, 10 town and 4 scum if you're Magna.



If Old Man is town, this means from his perspective there were 13 other players.

Assuming there is a town cop, for Lycan to be the town Cop, this is a 1 in 12 chance (he isn't targeting the PGO claim), or roughly 8.3%. No math on the odds Old Man would target Lycan because that wasn't random, it was a 7.7% chance of Lycan BEING the town cop.

Yes, if there is a Gunsmith, it is moderately likely there is either (or both) a town false positive or a scum false negative (doctor / traitor - the latter being the scenario of 11:4 that is possible). Regardless, above is still true.

Otherwise, the odds of him targeting scum are 3:12 are about 25%. 3 times the above. If there is a mafia doc, 2 times, though if we had a town cop a mafia doc would be less likely anyways.

Both of those are relatively small numbers, but one of them

has

to be true, because Lycan is claiming having a gun. So, to scale it up, 75% of the time Lycan is scum and 25% he's town. There is no opinion here, no luck.


Now, the other side of the coin is scum!OldMan. In this world, Lycan is probably town. However, I believe Old Man is town strongly from play and I've held that belief since early day 1, and his attitude and tone around the gambit seem genuine. If you are lynching outside the pair you're acknowledging this is true for you too so the above is solid.



75% likely to be scum is WAY better than normal: from a pure objective, unbiased by reads standpoint the average player from a town POV rn is 75% likely to be TOWN, the complete opposite. Its a huge difference. It isn't immediately obvious how much of a difference this makes in terms of sorting.

You don't like Math? Well, Mathblade isn't the most popular player, but Hito certainly is boasting one of arguably the best towngames of all time. He was damn sure Lycan was scum and pushed it almost the entire day. KMD has a decade too and he had him as scum. Lycan's had garbage stances on me and others for the game. I'm not biased by my math, as

I was pushing Lycan before the goddamn claims

I've been pushing this since day start. Stop fucking brushing me off and vote Lycan or tell me why he's town.

[Eddie Cane]

MoI, saying Insanity isn't lynchabity is horse shit. Doesn't make them town here necessarily but in general their descriptor as a player is lurky lynchbait with good reads. I don't think your points are bad, but be careful as you're treading on the line of pushing playstyle. I have not played with insanity so I'm not a good person to ask - this is ffery meta.

1157 is hilarious right after Magna's post. Hito had points too.

Lycan / Pine / Insanity

too easy probably, but meh. insanity is only there slotting in non-dived associations from pine and lycan i recall. in a vacuum and without rereading, still slight town on the slot though less so than others and PoE scumpool.



and I'm sorry for posturing more but seriously I want to siteflake and I don't want to gameflake and 1 month deadlines are honestly just excessive and boring. please lets not do a repeat of last day phase. town win rates do not go up when you use more time, but apathy flakes do!

[MagnaofIllusion]

It's a dumb question

Not really.

I'm trying to parse if you are just terrible Town who doesn't bother to pay any attention to detail (like the fact that Kison EXPLICITLY ruled out Daytalk in the opening post to Day 1) or are scum trying for some sort of Derp Clear by floating that non-sense.

I mean the Day 1 game state and the fact that wagon just sort of hung in the "just out of lynch reach" on both you and Axel for a LONG time before the flash wagon on KMD makes me think you are both Town and scum just figured that momentum would take its course as deadline approached. But I know your reasoning on scum reading me is pretty laughably incorrect and for all my dislike of Eddie's garbage math he feels pretty motivated to get your lynch when scum pushing that hard on a claimed Investigative role would be getting backlash. So I know 1 of your 3 reads is wrong and feel more likely a second is two. How much FMPOV should I ascribe that to bad reads and how much to scum faking reads?

[MagnaofIllusion]

AKA, 11 town and 3 scum very probably, 10 town and 4 scum if you're Magna.

See its shit like this that I make me say "Fuck off Eddie you pompus moron" and just take a contra position on anything you have to say.

I never said that it HAS to be 4 scum. I said it is possible.

You however simply want to strawman that.

If you are Town you are doing the literal worst possible job of making me want to listen to you and lynch in the claims.

So great work there Tex.

I'm done with this thread for awhile. Like 2 people besides me seem to care to put in more than minimal effort and none of them engender any goodwill to want to work with them if I think they are Town.

[Firebringer]

@Mod: Replace me

Not enjoying this game and I am not going to force myself to play.
Hope you guys have a great game.

[Old Man]

Old Man:

still want you to explain to me why you thought you had such a great chance of being roleblocked that fake claiming would be a stellar move.

I could not tolerate the risk that I get nightkilled or get roleblocked, being likely the sole investigative and thus the most powerful role in the game (under the assumption that Lycan is scum). Also, I believe in my stellar scumhunting abilities to be able to lock-down a scum with a single use of my ability the next day, giving me the obvious town status that would rival that of a confirmed-town Innocent Child.

However, I admit that I may have miscalculated how difficult it is to lynch actual scum in this game, whom I literally have a guilty on.


Look at Eddie Cane's math. The odds of Lycan being scum are 3/15, three times more than if he was a "Cop" (and this assumes there is even a cop in this game). What else could he have claimed after being guiltied by my result? It is the only viable move that scum can do.

[Pine]

No

Stop it

Don't be a dingus

Eddie's "math" is totally bogus. Its core assumption is flawed. It fails to account for the non-randomness of game design.

That is Not How Math Works.

[Old Man]

Old Man - Who do you think Lycan's partners are? Because even if you believe you have a guilty, there's more work to do.

I think Lycan's partners are within this pool: {Ginggie, Pine, roflcopter, MagnaofIllusion}

Given Magna's position on Lycan today, he is given the benefit of doubt and thus lower priority as compared to the other three.

[Old Man]

No

Stop it

Don't be a dingus

Eddie's "math" is totally bogus. Its core assumption is flawed. It fails to account for the non-randomness of game design.

That is Not How Math Works.

What is flawed about his math? Did Korts insert a Cop Nexus who automatically draws Gunsmith guilties onto himself? What is so hard to understand about the fact that by sheer probability, it's more likely that Lycan is scum rather than not?

What is so hard to understand about the fact that Lycan is scum by play yesterday and now with a guilty on him he is literally confirmed scum?

[Pine]

I don't stick my neck out for scumbuddy Lycan like this. He'd be on his own.

You are ignoring the Occam's Razor explanation.

His role MAKES SENSE and BALANCES YOURS.

[Pine]

Where do you get Nexus from?

[Old Man]

I don't stick my neck out for scumbuddy Lycan like this. He'd be on his own.

You are ignoring the Occam's Razor explanation.

His role MAKES SENSE and BALANCES YOURS.

No, Occam's Razor explanation is that Lycan is scum and he is lying.

[Old Man]

I don't stick my neck out for scumbuddy Lycan like this. He'd be on his own.

Why not? If you're scum with Lycan here, the defense is going remarkably well.