Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[UglyDuck]

does literally no one other than the cow want to comment on my idea like literally at all?

Oh right, terrible idea. You're not wolf and both mafia and town are motivated to hunt for wolf right now. By abrogating your responsibility all you're doing is harming towns ability to mafia-hunt using your associations, hence CJ is correct that it's more like to come from scum.

I am also allowing town to use me as a tool. While the idea may harm the ability to skum hunt that is not all it does. Also you are being bias on the basis that i am mafia. I know i am town therefore the idea has much more meeit to me. A thought to be considered honestly in regards to upsides Vs downsides.
I am mafia, downside is less skum hunting today. Upside is my vote is controlled however you like.
I am town, downside is less skum hunting today, except no bc when i flip that’s a shit ton of info, and my vote is controlled however you like.


I understand how this idea is confusing to mafia. Weird spot to be put in when there is no good way for you to spin it.

[Sando]

I am also allowing town to use me as a tool. While the idea may harm the ability to skum hunt that is not all it does. Also you are being bias on the basis that i am mafia. I know i am town therefore the idea has much more meeit to me. A thought to be considered honestly in regards to upsides Vs downsides.

No, I'd rather see how you interact with others and get info about that in the event of your flip that we can use to lynch Mafia, rather than just having an extra vote that "town" can use.

[skitter30]

VOTE: sando

[Ruby Red]

p r o d g e

VOTE: skitter

[Sando]

I'm kinda ambivalent wrt voting ud or sando, but ud has a vote on him so I'll vote there for now. I strongly believe that there are associatives between the two of them.

So you go for the person that is also pretty much confirmed not-wolf...this is why I'm not believing that you're understanding town. We want to kill wolf today, it's 100% the best option for town, and you're flailing around going for the most anti-wolf people in the game...

Still wanna know what happened to the capslock bandit.

[skitter30]

I'm kinda ambivalent wrt voting ud or sando, but ud has a vote on him so I'll vote there for now. I strongly believe that there are associatives between the two of them.

So you go for the person that is also pretty much confirmed not-wolf...this is why I'm not believing that you're understanding town. We want to kill wolf today, it's 100% the best option for town, and you're flailing around going for the most anti-wolf people in the game...

Still wanna know what happened to the capslock bandit.

Again, I'm throwing this back at you by pointing out that you're complaining that I'm not voting a wolfread when you're voting me but literally can't explain how I make sense as a wolf without misrepping me. You ignored me when I pointed that bit out, and you still haven't addressed it.

Like you're saying that I'm scummy because I'm not voting someone who makes sense as a wolf because a wolf lynch is today's best lynch - yet you literally can't explain how the person you're voting makes sense as a wolf. Does that not seem a wee bit hypocritical or nonsensical to you?

And where, pray tell, am I flailing?

Also I agree that in an abstract sense that lynching a wolf is optimal today. Thing is that a) I'm not super confidant I know where wolves are b) I don't think other people are intersted in wagoning those people right now. I don't want to mislynch today and hit town. I'd *muuuuuuch* rather be voting someone I strongly suspect is mafia than someone I'm not super confidant is a wolf.

The best thing we can do is lynch a wolf, yes, but the worst thing we can do is lynch a townie. I'd rather compromise on a scumread I'm fairly confident on than fuck up and lynch town today.

[Sando]

Like you're saying that I'm scummy because I'm not voting someone who makes sense as a wolf because a wolf lynch is today's best lynch - yet you literally can't explain how the person you're voting makes sense as a wolf. Does that not seem a wee bit hypocritical or nonsensical to you?

I explained why it makes sense for you to be wolf, and you explained why it makes sense for you not to be wolf. They're not mutually exclusive, EVERYONE in the game both makes sense and doesn't make sense as wolf to certain extent.

Good to know that if I'm ever in a game with you that if I vote my partner then you'll never ever ever ever consider me as their scumpartner. Top notch play there...

[skitter30]

You didn't join the AP wagon which would be either thoughtful town or wolf, since town+mafia are going to want confirmed wolf killed.

This is a blatant lie and the basis of your reasoning for why I'm a wolf.

Its mutually exclusive when you claim 'I never did X' when its demonstrably proven that I did do it. Like I either did it or I didn't, but you're claiming that I didn't which is a lie and a blatant misrep that I called you out on repeatedly.

I think I want to do this VOTE: AP . I dislike the way he interacted with the wagon. Or, more accurately, I dislike the way he *didn't* interact with the wagon.

Good to know that if I'm ever in a game with you that if I vote my partner then you'll never ever ever ever consider me as their scumpartner. Top notch play there...

Here you're again ignoring context in order to push the narrative. I never claimed that someone should be hard-cleared if they voted their partner, and that's not what I'm arguing. I'm saying that I literally started the day casing AP and that after that, wolf!me would have had to purposefully direct the seer towards my partner in order to try to build that wagon. That's an entirely different animal than 'voting a partner,' as you're trying to frame it. All of this makes a lot of sense for a partner to do because ...? You can't seem to answer that question without misrepping my interactions with the wagon.

You're like ignoring the nuance of what I'm arguing in order to push your argument. You're also, once again, ignoring the bit where I point out that you're misrepping me.

[UglyDuck]

I am also allowing town to use me as a tool. While the idea may harm the ability to skum hunt that is not all it does. Also you are being bias on the basis that i am mafia. I know i am town therefore the idea has much more meeit to me. A thought to be considered honestly in regards to upsides Vs downsides.

No, I'd rather see how you interact with others and get info about that in the event of your flip that we can use to lynch Mafia, rather than just having an extra vote that "town" can use.

im interacting with you calling out a player that doesn't interact a lot on this point.

VOTE: vote: sando


off is still on the table for the rest of today if you guys ever want to pick it up.

[Sando]

This is a blatant lie and the basis of your reasoning for why I'm a wolf.

Oh ffs, seriously? I'm talking post AP-offer, not pre. They're different parts of the game and conflating the two is just stupid, stop it.

[Sando]

im interacting with you calling out a player that doesn't interact a lot on this point.

VOTE: vote: sando

I mean that's one way to avoid voting your partner, sure.

[skitter30]

This is a blatant lie and the basis of your reasoning for why I'm a wolf.

Oh ffs, seriously? I'm talking post AP-offer, not pre. They're different parts of the game and conflating the two is just stupid, stop it.

Because TW didn't want to end the day, he was at L-1, and NM was off-wagon

How the fuck is being offwagon *after* his offer (when nearly everyone accepted that he was getting lynched that day at that point) more relevant than being on his wagon *before* the guilty was outed?

--

@ud your vote on sando is blatantly survivalistic but it does make me doubt the you/sando pairing to some extent.

[Sando]

How the fuck is being offwagon *after* his offer (when nearly everyone accepted that he was getting lynched that day at that point) more relevant than being on his wagon *before* the guilty was outed?

Wolf gives plan that appears relatively pro-town (but isn't)

Mafia

- shit yeah, lynch the confirmed wolf, no-one can have a problem with us doing that, and then we know for sure that we won't be the NK, let's do it!

Unthinking town

- shit yeah, lynch the confirmed wolf

Thinking town

- uhhh, that's a bad plan, let's lynch the other wolf now and maybe some good stuff happens, otherwise we're no worse off

Wolf

- uhhhh...wait can I follow my partners stated plan? Wait should I bus? Wait should I do what the thinking town are saying?

Then you follow that by today insisting on lynching people who can basically only possibly be Mafia if they're scum, despite acknowledging that lynching wolf is by far and away best strategy for town.

[ArcAngel9]

VOTE COUNT - 3.2

Pine

-

skitter30

-Sando, RubyRed

Sando

- skitter30, UglyDuck

ceejayvinoya

-

Ruby Red

-

UglyDuck

- Pine,

Not_Mafia

- ,

Fumuki

-

Not Voting

, , , ceejayvinoya, , , Not_Mafia, Fumuki

With 8 alive it takes 5 for a lynch and 4 for no lynch.
Day 3 ends in (expired on 2018-06-22 07:40:00)

[/b][/color]

[ArcAngel9]

Fumuki has been prodded.

[ceejayvinoya]

@Sando skitter isn't wolf. You do understand that skitter knows how the worst plays as pr? If skitter is wolf, the worst would probably be dead at night 1.

[ceejayvinoya]

And you do understand this is why skitter was offwagon on AP earlier?

UNVOTE:

Cuz that's l-1, the duck wants to drag out the day, and nm is off-wagon

You not comprehending this is making me sus.

[Sando]

The guy jumps off because "Duck wants to drag out the day", after saying this:

because there's a guilty on him? If there's no benefit to delaying I don't see why we don't just lynch him? Like if AP isn't lynched today I still think that TW almost always gets killed here -> I think the wolves will find it more beneficial to just let AP go than to let TW have another night to get a result.

It's in direct conflict with me, who was in vehement agreement with the Duckling in at least the sense that we look elsewhere of AP.

Skitter SCREAMED lack of understanding about the situation, followed by leaving a wagon with poor reasoning.

You (CJ), me, NM and apparently Skitter all should know Ducklings PR game given we recently played one with him. A) It didn't match his PR game from 720 at least, even his D1 softclaim was significantly lighter touch than that game and B) why does only Skitter get credit? Hell NM very recently killed Duckling as PR...does that confirm him as not-wolf to you here?

[Sando]

@Sando skitter isn't wolf. You do understand that skitter knows how the worst plays as pr? If skitter is wolf, the worst would probably be dead at night 1.

I also literally pushed this point with Duckling yesterday, specifically in reference to NM given he'd recently killed it, but yeah Duckling himself refused to give non-wolf cred to people for not killing him.

[skitter30]

The guy jumps off because "Duck wants to drag out the day", after saying this:

'Hopping off the wagon because the duck wants to drag out the day' and 'wanting to lynch AP' are not dichotomous. I wanted to lynch AP but not until TW was ready to end the day.

It was L-1, and NM was off-wagon, and TW didn't want to end the day yet. Are you suggesting that I should have stayed on? Like what do you think I should have done there?

Skitter all should know Ducklings PR game given we recently played one with him. A) It didn't match his PR game from 720 at least, even his D1 softclaim was significantly lighter touch than that game

a) I haven't actually played a game with PR!tw besides this one as far as I remember. I'm just good at picking up on PR tells in general.

b) especially when I followed a game where he deliberately acted scummy in order to try to make himself mislynchable and not a likely nk (look at the noir dead thread), and then he softed *in reference to that game*

c) and when we've talked with each other about how we each play PRs.

d) I think that all the people that tw thinks knows his PR meta (and thus would've killed him) are less likely to be wolves.

--

@Sando skitter isn't wolf. You do understand that skitter knows how the worst plays as pr? If skitter is wolf, the worst would probably be dead at night 1.

I also literally pushed this point with Duckling yesterday, specifically in reference to NM given he'd recently killed it, but yeah Duckling himself refused to give non-wolf cred to people for not killing him.

and wtf is this post?

I expected to die too but I was comfortable enough with {fumuki, ruby, Sando, skitter} being town or maf and frankly you guys are the only ones liable to pick up on my current tpr meta tells. AP knows me fairly well but not THAT well, plus I was very lynchable this time. I'm getting better at it.

@the worst are you 100% confident here?

What are the odds that they deliberately ignored your soft-tells to get townred?

Town or maf
Town or maf
Town or maf

[skitter30]

Congratulations!

You have earned yourself a permanent scumread!

--

Your current scumread on me only makes sense if you're like deliberately ignoring things that don't fit your narrative or if you're like deliberately ignoring the nuance of my stances/posts/arguments.

[Sando]

and wtf is this post?

Yeah fair call, I missed that post.

It was L-1, and NM was off-wagon, and TW didn't want to end the day yet. Are you suggesting that I should have stayed on? Like what do you think I should have done there?

I'm suggesting that you were going after me for suggesting that we lynch someone other than AP and then deferred to Duckling...who was suggesting that we lynch someone other than AP. Apparently I need to keep this super simple, but you can see the contradiction there?

d) I think that all the people that tw thinks knows his PR meta (and thus would've killed him) are less likely to be wolves.

You're still currently voting a person he said isn't wolf for the same reason you're now claiming should say you're not wolf...

[skitter30]

I'm suggesting that you were going after me for suggesting that we lynch someone other than AP

and then deferred to Duckling...who was suggesting that we lynch someone other than AP. Apparently I need to keep this super simple, but you can see the contradiction there?

Is this a thing I've done anywhere since like early day2? And even there I wasn't scumreading you for it, but rather saying I thought your opinion was wrong.

Since you apparently think I'm scumreading you for that: I don't think that there was anything inherently scummy about how you approached the AP lynch yesterday even though I thought and think your opinion was wrong.

And I don't get what this even has to do with the L-1 wagon thing in the first place. And I don't see the contradiction. I'm pretty sure that you're ascribing a scumread to me here that I never had.

You're still currently voting a person he said isn't wolf for the same reason you're now claiming should say you're not wolf...

I don't think you're a wolf, for exactly the reason you're citing. I don't know who the wolf is, but I'm pretty damn sure you're not town. I'd rather lynch *any* sort of scumread that I'm very confident on than take a gamble on someone that's 'maybe-wolf-maybe-town' because the margin of error in this game is super small and doesn't really leave much room for mistakes, and we've already blown through one of our mislynches.

And I said all of this already:

Also I agree that in an abstract sense that lynching a wolf is optimal today. Thing is that a) I'm not super confidant I know where wolves are b) I don't think other people are intersted in wagoning those people right now. I don't want to mislynch today and hit town. I'd *muuuuuuch* rather be voting someone I strongly suspect is mafia than someone I'm not super confidant is a wolf.

The best thing we can do is lynch a wolf, yes, but the worst thing we can do is lynch a townie. I'd rather compromise on a scumread I'm fairly confident on than fuck up and lynch town today.

[Sando]

Is this a thing I've done anywhere since like early day2? And even there I wasn't scumreading you for it, but rather saying I thought your opinion was wrong.

Since you apparently think I'm scumreading you for that: I don't think that there was anything inherently scummy about how you approached the AP lynch yesterday even though I thought and think your opinion was wrong.

And I don't get what this even has to do with the L-1 wagon thing in the first place. And I don't see the contradiction. I'm pretty sure that you're ascribing a scumread to me here that I never had.

Your last(ish) post of D2 is agreeing with Fumu who thinks that me pointing out that Mafia wanted to lynch AP yesterday makes me scummy...you want to claim this whole dynamic wasn't a thing since early yesterday? Sure there's a lot of nuance there, which obviously evolved later in the day, but I've ascribed motivations in 1687, for you to pull out a single sentence as if that summarises my entire stand whilst ignoring things like that is just...beyond stupid in its misrepresentation.

I don't think you're a wolf, for exactly the reason you're citing. I don't know who the wolf is, but I'm pretty damn sure you're not town. I'd rather lynch *any* sort of scumread that I'm very confident on than take a gamble on someone that's 'maybe-wolf-maybe-town' because the margin of error in this game is super small and doesn't really leave much room for mistakes, and we've already blown through one of our mislynches.

And I said all of this already:

a) You're wrong and are trying to lynch town here
b) Lynching people you know aren't wolf is beyond stupid
c) Trying to hide behind "I'd rather lynch any scum than mislynch" is also a really stupid statement, given you're saying you'd rather lynch in a pool that has less chance of producing "scum" since by your own words, it doesn't include 1/3rd of the scumpool. 3/8 or 37.5% of the pool are scum, you want to reduce that to 2/8 or 25% chance that any given lynch target is scum...can we pretty please play some poker...for money...lots of money? Because you're a terrible gambler.
d) The statement is just also extremely lazy and designed to appeal to town whilst also abrogating your responsibility.

[skitter30]

I'm suggesting that you were going after me for suggesting that we lynch someone other than AP and then deferred to Duckling...who was suggesting that we lynch someone other than AP. Apparently I need to keep this super simple, but you can see the contradiction there?

OK.

This reads to me like you're calling me disingenuous for pushing you for suggesting we lynch someone other than AP when I wanted to defer to the duck who wanted to lynch someone other than AP.

The problem with this is that *I never pushed you for suggesting we lynch someone other than AP*.

What I did say was:

* I think that there's no point lynching outside of the guilty

* I think it's hypocritical of you to push me for wanting to lynch a wolf yesterday when you wanted to lynch wolves yesterday (that's what the post in response to the fumuki post was saying)

* I think it's scummy and hypocritical for you to be pushing me for not voting someone I think is a wolf when you're voting me but can't explain how my actions make sense as coming from a wolf in a holistic sense.

I never called you scummy or pushed you solely because you had a different opinion on how to handle the AP thing; I don't think there's anything inherently scummy in that POV.

I think the way you interacted with the AP thing given your stated POV and the way you're pushing me is scummy.

You're telling me I'm being disingenuous because my actions don't match up with what I'm saying. I'm telling you I never said the thing you're attributing to me.

--

but I've ascribed motivations in 1687, for you to pull out a single sentence as if that summarises my entire stand whilst ignoring things like that is just...beyond stupid in its misrepresentation.

The things in 1687 had little to do with why I was or wasn't on the wagon.

-> I started the wagon

-> It gets to L-1, NM is off it, TW wants the day to continue, so I leave the wagon

-> AP makes his offer (notice how the offer comes *after* my unvote)

-> I want to lynch him anyways because I think his plan is anti-town and there's a guilty on him

-> I don't remember the specifics, but after that he was either at L-1 or L-2 for the rest of the day and voting him at any point after that would have ended the day or put him in danger of getting lolhammered before tw wanted the day to end.

Your motivations post has little to do with the logistics of me being on or off the wagon.

You're basically arguing that I'm his partner because I wasn't on the wagon post-offer.

If I'm his partner I was hard-bussing him from daystart and wanted to lynch him - why do I hop off the wagon when he was close to getting hammered or when NM had the oppurtunity to lolhammer him? You still haven't explained what partner!me was doing at daystart. You're focusing on a very specific circumstance and ignoring that the broader context doesn't make any sort of sense.

I want you to explain what you think I was doing at daystart *through* the offer, not just post-offer.

I don't know what you think I'm ignoring.
--

b) Lynching people you know aren't wolf is beyond stupid
c) Trying to hide behind "I'd rather lynch any scum than mislynch" is also a really stupid statement, given you're saying you'd rather lynch in a pool that has less chance of producing "scum" since by your own words, it doesn't include 1/3rd of the scumpool. 3/8 or 37.5% of the pool are scum, you want to reduce that to 2/8 or 25% chance that any given lynch target is scum...can we pretty please play some poker...for money...lots of money? Because you're a terrible gambler.
d) The statement is just also extremely lazy and designed to appeal to town whilst also abrogating your responsibility.

I think that the wolves are in {pine/nm}. I think that pretty much anyone has the potential to be mafia except for like ceejay, but my best bet are you > ud >>> ruby red in roughly that order.

I don't think that there's much interest in lynching either one, and I'm not confident on either to try to force either of those lynches right now. Like I can have lynchpool and recognize that those aren't particularly viable lynches.

I'm not sure what you mean when you say I want to reduce the chance that any given lynchtarget is 2/8. Like I'm not sure what I'm doing that corresponds to this statement.

You're also arguing this purely on odds but failing to take into account things like behavior and reads. Yes in a vacuum the odds that a particular living player is some variant of scum is 3/8 (it's really 3/7 that some other player is scum if you're assuming that you're town) but I don't ascribe to each player exactly 3/8 of a chance of being scum cuz that would be a silly way of playing the game; people's behavior raises or lowers their individual odds of being scum. Like from town's perspective every other person is equally likely to have rolled scum, but the entire point of the game for town is to try to figure out *who those scum are* based on their behavior.

Also you do realize that the lynch of the day atm is UD, right? You do realize that he's wildly believed to be mafia, right? Do you think that NM and Pine are wolves for voting and/or pushing there?