Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[davesaz]

I've posted VLA.
I'm going to un-bookmark this thread.
If I get a daystart PM I'll come back.
If the mod prods me on VLA I'll report it.

[wilky]

This game is really not that hard.
If mafia can't both action and kill, JUNGLE becomes conftown. (Sadly, I don't expect this to be the case, but we're in for a VERY pleasant surprise if so.)
Dunnstral is soft-conftown.
Kaede is hard-conftown.
I have hard-townreads on Ankamius and YT.
I know myself to be town.

That narrows the pool down to wilky/Kokichi Oma/Alchemist21/davesaz.

We have four lynches by my math. (1, 10 > 8. 2, 8 > 6. 3, 6 > 4.) We could literally lynch all of them and we would win, not even going into additional reasons for narrowing the pool down further. (Namely, reasonable townread on wilky and soft townread on Kokichi Oma.)

Pagetopping this part because it's important enough to warrant a repeat and not be missed.

Change any player in that list with Dunn and i'll get on board with this. I'll even eat the lynch today as long as Dunn gets swapped into this list. Until then my votes not moving.

[Alchemist21]

I really don’t think it’s Dave. I still don’t think he claims Miller unless he’s an actual Miller. To that end, Wilky’s counterclaim makes him even more likely to be Town than Dave. The Nero/pjm slot was an actual role cop and the only flipped scum whom’s role explicitly mentioned having safe flavor. I’d be willing to bet that scum rolecop was meant to look like it fit as a Town PR in a game with 2 Millers.

VOTE: Dunn

[Kaede Akamatsu]

This game's starting to get on my nerves.

*table flip*

[Dunnstral]

Pretty sure it's still not me

[Kaede Akamatsu]

>I want to lynch Dave
>I get yelled at and told to not lynch Dave
>I want to lynch Jungle
>I get yelled at and told to not lynch Jungle
>I want to lynch Dave again
>Dave AtEs and threatens to quote role PM
>I want to lynch wilky
>BUT WILKY'S LIKE CLOSE TO CONF TOWN
>I want to lynch Dunn
>NO, DONT FUCK IT UP, LYNCH DAVE
>Decides to vote dave
>NO, SCREW YOU LET'S LYNCH DUNN INSTEAD
>me

*table flips*

[Ankamius]

dw kaede it was me all along

[Alchemist21]

>I want to lynch Dave
>I get yelled at and told to not lynch Dave
>I want to lynch Jungle
>I get yelled at and told to not lynch Jungle
>I want to lynch Dave again
>Dave AtEs and threatens to quote role PM
>I want to lynch wilky
>BUT WILKY'S LIKE CLOSE TO CONF TOWN
>I want to lynch Dunn
>NO, DONT FUCK IT UP, LYNCH DAVE
>Decides to vote dave
>NO, SCREW YOU LET'S LYNCH DUNN INSTEAD
>me

*table flips*

LMAO I’m sorry.

[YT2980]

What’s with all this flip-flopping today? My goodness, it’s a bit crazy

@mod: a vote count would be greatly appreciated as soon as you can provide one!

Are we discounting townreads at this point? I’m not up for that, and I say that because I really don’t think dunnstral is a good lynch choice. Scumstral actively defending the davesaz lynch makes no sense for a scum member, unless they happen to be teammates which I highly highly doubt, so instant townlean on that; and plus, you got the whole maria situation where dunnstral should be cleared because he was investigated BY maria. Why would scum ever have any incentive to investigate THEIR own member? that would be NUTS.

[Alchemist21]

dw kaede it was me all along

It would honestly be hilarious if it is you.

[Ankamius]

it would be wouldn't it

[Alchemist21]

What’s with all this flip-flopping today? My goodness, it’s a bit crazy

@mod: a vote count would be greatly appreciated as soon as you can provide one!

Are we discounting townreads at this point? I’m not up for that, and I say that because I really don’t think dunnstral is a good lynch choice. Scumstral actively defending the davesaz lynch makes no sense for a scum member, unless they happen to be teammates which I highly highly doubt, so instant townlean on that; and plus, you got the whole maria situation where dunnstral should be cleared because he was investigated BY maria. Why would scum ever have any incentive to investigate THEIR own member? that would be NUTS.

Do we have proof she actually targeted Dunn? That scout thing wasn’t a real action submission.

[YT2980]

What’s with all this flip-flopping today? My goodness, it’s a bit crazy

@mod: a vote count would be greatly appreciated as soon as you can provide one!

Are we discounting townreads at this point? I’m not up for that, and I say that because I really don’t think dunnstral is a good lynch choice. Scumstral actively defending the davesaz lynch makes no sense for a scum member, unless they happen to be teammates which I highly highly doubt, so instant townlean on that; and plus, you got the whole maria situation where dunnstral should be cleared because he was investigated BY maria. Why would scum ever have any incentive to investigate THEIR own member? that would be NUTS.

Do we have proof she actually targeted Dunn? That scout thing wasn’t a real action submission.

good question, actually. if not her role, could another scum member have investigated on her behalf potentially?

dw kaede it was me all along

It would honestly be hilarious if it is you.

if it were somehow you ankamius, i’d laugh my tail off, and congratulate you because you’d be playing one hell of a game—looking as town as i’ve ever seen a scum member play.

[Kokichi Oma]

Kaede just vote who you want.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

I'm already voting who I want.

[Punreader]

punreader - Non Weak Hider (No action, Forgot, Forgot, Kokichi)

That's because it was No action N2, Kokichi N3, and davesaz N4.

Aside from that most of everyone is missing a flavor claim.

That would be Robert McCready.

Kaede, a davesaz response is coming momentarily.

[Punreader]

I'm so fucking close to just posting my role PM and being done with the lot of you.

The told you so is going to be so sweet this game. If I bother staying on the site. It's not doing my health any good.

V/LA until June 26.

Anyway i feel like this sequence of posts come from frustrated town, scum would just give up rather than threaten, and i'd think it'd be bad sportsmanship to use these kind of tactics as a survivalist scum anyway.

Personal stance? I have seen and known davesaz for long enough to know that the threat of posting the role PM is an empty threat. He would never actually do it. What a town-him, when frustrated,

would

do, is self-vote out of that frustration, giving up, "I told you so" feeling of wanting to prove his innocence the only way he could.

But that would actually risk ending the game for him as pun, thus, why he used the threat of something he'd never do but which is more drastic instead.

However, assuming that he actually is willing to quit the site because of this game.

Your defense of davesaz is exactly identical to someone else's defense of a different player, so let me just quote what I said back then.

I'm concerned that pmatt's emotion the last few pages is looking like town frustration, and I can't tell if it's real or faked. Can you?

Why are the options "real and town" or "faked and pun"?

projectmatt

davesaz

is in a situation which is frustrating regardless of his alignment; as a result, I treat the frustration as not having one.

I see the type of AtE he did as being indicative of a pun alignment.
If it wasn't indicative of that, it is not alignment indicative.
I don't see it indicating him as town.

[Ankamius]

how much more do we need before just hammering him

[Punreader]

I've also seen davesaz in past games where he was town; in my experience, he actually has done

better

under pressure for gamesolving (or at least attempting it) than the times where he wasn't under pressure. People calling him pun spurred him into action in those past games, so honestly I don't believe for one second that players calling him pun sabotages his ability to contribute content to the game, because players calling him pun is how I've seen him contribute his best content in prior games.

[Punreader]

RMOJ - Quest giver (Impossibear (Public day cop), Ouroboros (Permanent BP), Me/MariaR (Commuter for 3 nights in a row), Me (Deathproof for 3 cycles(?) in a row))

No game that includes this can be balanced. It isn't real, it's lies.

Speaking as a moderator.
I know otherwise.

I'm still waiting on the mod to respond to my question about whether the pun can kill and action as well, because if I get an answer there REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE could become 100% mod-confirmed town making your continued push there sleazy-as-hell if you happened to already know he was conftown by being aware mafia can't kill and action.

[Punreader]

Only problem I have with that is that if wilky's scum that was some very good acting Day 3.

Not just D3.

Every

day has demonstrated wilky as town.

Additionally, VCA gives some strong indicators wilky's town as well.

[Punreader]

Two inventor-class abilities in the same game?

Two miller-class abilities in the same game?

[Punreader]

there have been VTs flipped tho.

Yes.
VTs.
Not power roles.

Every POWER ROLE has been complex.
Every POWER ROLE has not been simple.
Every POWER ROLE has been heavily modified with extras to it.

My point thus, still holds.

davesaz has a sketchy claim. He claims to be only a miller, whereas

every other

power role

in the game thusfar is not a standard simple role. To go through the list,

1. Ventriloquist's role of roleswapper is not a simple role.
   
2. Ouroboros's track/neighborhood mechanic was heavily modified.
   
3. projectmatt is the exception demonstrating the rule, as his rolecop is the only role unmodified.
   
4. Impossibear was both a bulletproof and a vigilante, with both aspects modified; the bulletproof had the 1x modifier, and the vig had a penalty for shooting town, a heavy modification from the standard.
   
5. MariaR's role had both a strongman and some sort of investigative power (that I don't fully understand to be honest); said investigative power was in of itself heavily modified.
   
6. MathBlade's role was not just a roleblocker; it had the modification of preceding ALL action resolution, a unique modifier which heavily modified the role.
   
7. Of the living claimed players, you have:
   • My hide, which contains a non-weak modification, which to GuyInFreezer's knowledge was a strong deviation from the normal, making it a heavily modified role.
     
   • Your role is not only an innocent child, but also an action duplicator. Action duplication is a heavily modified aspect to your role.
     
   • REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE has a proven quest effect. If you argue it's faked, that it's a public fruit vend, then that in of itself would be a heavily modified role. If you believe it's real, then this is an absolutely unique mechanic for giving out effects.
     
   • wilky is NOT ONLY a miller, BUT ALSO a slow cop, which in of itself is a heavily modified role, which is put on top of the cop.
     
   • Alchemist21 gives out some sort of inventions, but the inventions aren't standard abilities. (Okay so this role is probably fairly close to normal, but then again I'm not sure Alchemist21 has fullclaimed the exact specifics behind how the role works so it may be modified in some way.)
   Am I missing any, or does my point get across? davesaz's claim is an elephant in the room.

Miller is a power role. It is a negative utility power role, but it is still a power role.

[GuyInFreezer]

5.02

davesaz (4):

punreader, Ankamius, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, Kaede Akamatsu

REAL MEN ONLY JUNGLE (2):

davesaz, YT2980

wilky (2):

Dunnstral, Kokichi Oma

Dunnstral (2):

wilky, Alchemist21

Not Voting:

None

With

10

alive,

6

to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2018-06-26 17:15:26)

[Punreader]

punreader's gimmick beats mine. hands down. by this point i'd already have slipped by using 'scum' instead of 'pun'

Actually it is so natural and infectious that on my main I've almost slipped by using 'pun' on that account.

Sigh, whatever im tired of arguing, hope this does flip scum, but if it doesnt, dont come crying to me to magically solve the game.
VOTE: dave

If it doesn't, it's not the end of the world. We've still got three tries, and a fairly good grasp of the game to largely solve it and fill in most blanks. I hide behind Kokichi Oma, and if the pun don't kill him, I'm alive tomorrow to do a reset, rereading the entire game and affirming all my correct conclusions and reviewing the flawed ones to find more accurate ones.

davesaz is the answer which makes the most sense. If it isn't him, I am almost assured to be around tomorrow to figure out who it actually is. If it is him, then lynching him ends the game. We don't lose here, ever, as long as we take our time when needed.

Right now, we don't need to take our time because we have an overwhelming suspect in the form of davesaz.

If he flipped town, we could push D6 almost all the way to deadline and use that time to analyze and gamesolve.

your points about dave are alright theoretically, but why do you conclusively figure projectmatt didn’t put at least one of his partners in a decent game position, given his supposed expertise?

And how does he do that?

projectmatt is as I described a skilled mafia player vastly underestimated, but his main skill as a mafia player is getting players to townread him and make them like him. He is reasonably okay with planning partner interactions and is far above average in terms of night action optimization, but he is far from a specialist in either field; his skill is first and foremost in manipulating players' perceptions of his

own

content, i.e., making himself look town.

How does he manage to set his partners up?

Especially if his partner is davesaz?

Ankamius says it best:

again, that argument doesn't work because in that scenario, the entire scumteam is sinking.

all-or-nothing gambiting is something mafia teams virtually never do, because the risks are as high as those of untamed wildfires reaching houses.

Yes, which is precisely why davesaz is pun; the punteam

didn't

try to go all-or-nothing. That's a significant portion of my case.

In what universe does a player with a <10% scum win rate unnecessarily bus 3 of their partners as a miller claim?

In what universe is your content considered a bus on all three partners?

You stayed off the projectmatt wagon for as long as humanly possible. Prior to MariaR being confscum I don't seem to recall any push on MariaR; in fact, I seem to recall hard-defense of her. (Though I admit this is from memory and I could be mistaken.) And obviously voting confscum doesn't give you town credit. This is the same reason why hammering projectmatt doesn't give town credit; he was going down, and

you

were his counterwagon, giving you incentive to hammer him regardless of alignment.

The only name you can say would qualify as a bus is Ventriloquist on D1, and at that point pun bussing is absolutely a viable thing and was in fact the expected action. MariaR did it and a second pun is incredibly likely to have also done it, as shown by how there was zero attempts to get a counterwagon to Ventriloquist going.