Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Punreader]

Hi Punreader!

Hello Ankamius. I'll not be reading all 123 pages, but I would prefer to read key parts of the game along with skimming isos and looking at random snippets.

I was wondering if I could get some help there with a summary of important/relevant/noteworthy events including any claims to evaluate. With luck, I'll get some reads that'll serve as a solid Ankor.

[Punreader]

Read day one at least, most of day two is useless

Early content is indeed preferable. I think I kamanage 40 pages. Many thanks for the hastened D1. However, if you're itching for analysis right now without reading anything, a freebie: most of the punteam bussed.

I submit as proof both the pun lynch fairly early, and that you haven't managed to lynch pun since then with a significantly longer D2. That would suggest you're looking in the wrong places. If you're looking off the wagon, that would explain things quite nicely. I'd need far better grounding in the game to be able to name specific names.

[Punreader]

Tchill13 was very scummy... but I want to see what punreader does to see if they can reverse my read.

If it means anything to you, I specifically scouted the slot before offering to replace in. When I saw the length of the iso (as in, how short it was) and the (comparatively speaking) tame posting, I knew it was a town slot. GIF's announcement implied under some amount of pressure no less. Precisely why I wanted it.

It would be a bit hard to quantify why this contrasts with my experience of Tchill when he's pun, and also even if I could provide the lethally cold, precise logic, it being my slot there is an obvious bias and my word cannot be trusted.

Overall impression from your reads is that almost all of your strong town, off of the reasoning you have given, are slots I'd be

concerned

about. In contrast, your normal townreads look fairly likely to be accurate. I lack the information to give feedback on those below the townread line off of your one post.

[Punreader]

punreader- PR

Can confirm this. I am a PR, but unfortunately, a one ill-suited to my talents. The use comes in getting us off of mylo by either attracting the nightkill or predicting it; the former is impossible and the latter is doubtful. I am indeed a hider that can hide behind pun. My role specifies I am a "normal hider, modified to not die behind pun", but I am waiting to hear back from the mod on what constitutes being a "normal" hider.

My role does not specify if I can be tracked.
My role does not specify if I can be roleblocked.
My role does not specify if I show up on a watch report if a watcher targets my target. (I would assume so, but not all mods do.)
My role does not specify if an investigative targeting me gets no result, a result on me, a result on my target, or a result on both my target and I.
My role does not specify if an investigative targeting my target gets a result on me, a result on my target, or a result on both my target and I.

I can tell you Tchill submitted no action N1.

[Punreader]

Overall impression from your reads is that almost all of your strong town, off of the reasoning you have given, are slots I'd be concerned about.

Why?

Your description of their play is describing things I would immediately be severely cautious about coming from the players in question.

[Punreader]

Kaede- IC
Jungle- Weird Joat
Wilky- Miller Slow Cop
Maria- Some Kind of Investigative
OTM- Weird RB
Tchill- Non weak hider
Us- BP Vig w/ unspecified modifier
Flipped: Ability Swapper
For setup spec reference, cause I'm gonna want pun to do the same thing when they get their ass in here.

Ankamius
Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells)
Ramcius
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
davesaz- NEG UTIL
Kokichi Oma- Unclaimed
projectmatt- Unclaimed
Wraith- Unclaimed

Well quick analysis would be that there's probably 2-3 pun in the unclaimed with 0-1 pun in the claimed. My role can act as a self-protective, your role has a protective, OnTheMark's roleblock gives a third source of killstopping power. This seems reasonable from town, but I would become suspect of an additional killstopper claim.

Kaede as an IC, the ability to get a second alignment confirmation, the miller slow cop, and the investigative is a little on the heavy side in terms of investigating. It's possible there's a pun in there, but not guaranteed. I would definitely lynch in there if we had an additional investigative claim.

I'd need to see the whole set of roles in the game for more thorough analysis. It'd be Impossible before then. Do bear with me.

[Punreader]

Ventriloquist (10):

Ouroboros,

ManWithNoName

, MariaR (Investigative), Wraith, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz (negative utility), Tchill13, wilky (Miller Slow Cop), Ankamius

If I'm honest, the only names here which don't immediately look town are Ouroboros and MariaR. Outside chance, Ankamius. But I'll let this analysis sit in the fridge a while and cool off while I go read.

[Punreader]

We have too much power claimed and a flipped scum. That means strong townreads outside of the claimed power roles are disproportionally more likely to be accurate.

Respectfully, I disagree. I strongly believe the unclaimed would contain a minimum of one pun, if not two. I would expect this game to be almost, but not quite, role madness. I'd expect 2-4 vanillas in the game total (let's say 3), including the one flipped already. Everyone else I would anticipate holding a role.

If you treat the game as role madness, you use a different metric to read game balance than a metric for a game that is predominantly vanilla. No matter which three names are pun, the game fundamentally

cannot

be predominantly vanilla. Ergo, the unclaimed aren't more cleared; they're more suspicious.

[Punreader]

Proof of concept:

• Bodyswap:
  At any point of the game, you may switch your role with your factional members by PMing the mod.

If the mafia team had a 'Vanilla', if the mafia team had a 'Goon', what would the purpose of this role be? There would be a maximum of two candidates to have any possible impact.

You can safely assume from this role's flip that the mafia are then all power roles.

If the mafia are all power roles, what does that say about the level of power the town needs?

The mafia cannot have power roles when the town has a limited supply. To compensate for the power of the mafia roles, the town would thus need a significant number of power roles. Most of the game in fact. In an 18 player 4-scum game

with all goons

, you can expect the town to need about five

strong

power roles (we are talking ungated vigilante levels of strong), or about 7 weaker power roles. That is for a punteam without power. Give all the pun power roles, then suddenly you're looking at a figure of 7 stronger power roles (full ungated vig, strong) or about 10-12 weaker ones. 10-12/14 total town members.

Thus.

2-4 vanilla town.

Jingle, you know who I am so you know I know my setup math; I'm not wrong in these figures. This is how a game would be balanced.

[Punreader]

Nah I think that is waaay too op for town however that does seem to be what the site does now.

It doesn't matter what you think.

It matters what actually happens.

In a 13p 10:3 mini, balance standards would dictate that against an all-goon punteam, you'd have about 3 strong town roles, or 4-5 weaker ones. Predominantly vanilla.

If the punteam were suddenly all power roles (something not done in normals fairly often for this very reason), you suddenly need practically double those numbers: about 5-6 strong town roles, or 6-10 weaker ones. A game that is, or is practically, role madness.

If you scale this up to an 18p 14:4, the numbers are similarly adjusted. Against an all-goon punteam, you need a little extra power. 4-5 strong town roles, or about 7 weaker ones. Predominantly vanilla. When the punteam is all power roles, you need a minimum of 7 strong town roles, or about 10-12 weaker ones. Practically role madness.

Jingle seems to have inferred from the premise "the punteam is power roles", "we have too many claims, thus the punteam is mostly in the claimed roles". But it's the opposite. "The punteam is power roles" implies "we have too many unclaimed players, thus the punteam is mostly in the unclaimed players".

You don't have to like it to know that's the way it's done.

[Punreader]

Kaede- IC
Jungle- Weird Joat
Wilky- Miller Slow Cop
Maria- Some Kind of Investigative
OTM- Weird RB
Tchill- Non weak hider
Us- BP Vig w/ unspecified modifier
Flipped: Ability Swapper
For setup spec reference, cause I'm gonna want pun to do the same thing when they get their ass in here.

Ankamius
Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells)
Ramcius
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
davesaz- NEG UTIL
Kokichi Oma- Unclaimed
projectmatt- Unclaimed
Wraith- Unclaimed

Well quick analysis would be that there's probably 2-3 pun in the unclaimed with 0-1 pun in the claimed. My role can act as a self-protective, your role has a protective, OnTheMark's roleblock gives a third source of killstopping power. This seems reasonable from town, but I would become suspect of an additional killstopper claim.

Kaede as an IC, the ability to get a second alignment confirmation, the miller slow cop, and the investigative is a little on the heavy side in terms of investigating. It's possible there's a pun in there, but not guaranteed. I would definitely lynch in there if we had an additional investigative claim.

I'd need to see the whole set of roles in the game for more thorough analysis. It'd be Impossible before then. Do bear with me.

Extrapolating from my conclusions thusfar, it would be fair to state I would not lynch most of the claimed roles at this juncture. Outside chance of MariaR but I wouldn't be comfortable concluding that so hastily; I'm not married to the concept.

I would lynch in the unclaimed players. Off of description of play, I'm not too concerned about Wraith or Alchemist21. (I'll concoct more tangible analysis later.) I'm also not so concerned about Dunnstral. (He's a read I don't need to put much effort into before getting dun.)
Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch) I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and projectmatt.
I wouldn't be confident he'd flip pun, but I'd lynch Ramicus if it came to it which seems to be what you want to do anyway.

Still, these are without reading the game so we'll have to see what changes when I've actually read D1.

[Punreader]

Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch) I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and projectmatt.

The implication here is that you specifically scumread me

more

for having lynched scum D1, am I wrong?

I would say you are more right than wrong. 'Scumread' implies a level of read on you I wouldn't confidently say I have. I literally haven't read the game; it would be hard to have a punread of any real strength.

I would say it's more that I have an idea of where I wouldn't look and where I would look, and you're in the area I would look. Looking there doesn't make you pun, in of itself. It just means I'm looking at you as a pun candidate. Your application is on file and being processed; for all I know, when I read the game, it could be thrown into the shredder. But for the moment, it is being reviewed.

[Punreader]

Dave Wraith ProjectMatt Ank RC ETL Kokichi should have all the scums I think

@Pun
What do you think is right? Wrong? And maybe?

I would off of Ankamius's description think Wraith is wrong.
I would think Dave, outside chance at Ank (otherwise a wrong), severely outside chance of ETL (most likely a wrong), and Kokichi qualify as 'Maybe'.

I wouldn't go so far as to say ProjectMatt and RC are 'right', but they are focal points of mine.

Ask me again after I read D1; it's too early to really be certain.

[Punreader]

That's not the question I asked.

Not precisely, no, but it's the most accurate answer you'll receive. You asked a question expecting it to be a yes or no question but it wasn't actually something I could answer with a 'yes' or a 'no'.

Scumread implies a level of read on you I don't have without having read the game. I have an idea where I wouldn't look and where I would look. You spearheading the D1 lynch in the way I am hearing it described is one of the areas I would look. That doesn't make you pun; it simply means I am looking at you as a pun candidate.

[Punreader]

do you agree or disagree with my interpretation that you consider my having been first on a scum lynch to be more scum indicative than town indicative?

This is a question that can be answered yes or no.

No, it cannot, because it is simply adding an additional layer to the already existing question.

Your question hasn't changed.

You've just added an additional layer to it.

You are still asking, "you specifically scumread me more for having lynched scum D1, am I wrong?". You're just asking it in a different way. "Disagree or agree with me saying you specifically scumread me more for having lynched scum D1, am I wrong?" doesn't shift the question. But you have your answer. It's not going to get any better because it is as good an answer as you can get:

Scumread implies a level of read on you I don't have without having read the game. I have an idea where I wouldn't look and where I would look. You spearheading the D1 lynch in the way I am hearing it described is one of the areas I would look. That doesn't make you pun; it simply means I am looking at you as a pun candidate.

This is your answer. There can be no disagreeing or agreeing to something which is partially both. It is partially disagreeing; it is partially agreeing. Because the original question was partially yes, partially no.

Not a hard concept to grasp.

[Punreader]

I know who you are and I find that answer strange at best: I would expect you for -reasons- to outright townread me with possible later consideration for a bus over that.

Then you don't know who I am because that's not something I would do.

all of your reads so far are basically meaningless, you are saying.

No, that's what you were trying to get me to say. It is not what I said.

Your description of their play is describing things I would immediately be severely cautious about coming from the players in question.

Ventriloquist (10):

Ouroboros,

ManWithNoName

, MariaR (Investigative), Wraith, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz (negative utility), Tchill13, wilky (Miller Slow Cop), Ankamius

If I'm honest, the only names here which

don't immediately look town

are Ouroboros and MariaR. Outside chance, Ankamius. But I'll let this analysis sit in the fridge a while and cool off while I go read.

Kaede- IC
Jungle- Weird Joat
Wilky- Miller Slow Cop
Maria- Some Kind of Investigative
OTM- Weird RB
Tchill- Non weak hider
Us- BP Vig w/ unspecified modifier
Flipped: Ability Swapper
For setup spec reference, cause I'm gonna want pun to do the same thing when they get their ass in here.

Ankamius
Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells)
Ramcius
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
davesaz- NEG UTIL
Kokichi Oma- Unclaimed
projectmatt- Unclaimed
Wraith- Unclaimed

Well quick analysis would be that there's probably 2-3 pun in the unclaimed with 0-1 pun in the claimed. My role can act as a self-protective, your role has a protective, OnTheMark's roleblock gives a third source of killstopping power. This seems reasonable from town, but I would become suspect of an additional killstopper claim.

Kaede as an IC, the ability to get a second alignment confirmation, the miller slow cop, and the investigative is a little on the heavy side in terms of investigating. It's possible there's a pun in there, but not guaranteed. I would definitely lynch in there if we had an additional investigative claim.

I'd need to see the whole set of roles in the game for more thorough analysis. It'd be Impossible before then. Do bear with me.

Extrapolating from my conclusions thusfar, it would be fair to state

I would not lynch most of the claimed roles

at this juncture. Outside chance of MariaR but I wouldn't be comfortable concluding that so hastily; I'm not married to the concept.

I would lynch in the unclaimed players

. Off of description of play,

I'm not too concerned about Wraith or Alchemist21

. (I'll concoct more tangible analysis later.)

I'm also not so concerned about Dunnstral

. (He's a read I don't need to put much effort into before getting dun.)
Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch)

I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and projectmatt

.
I wouldn't be confident he'd flip pun, but I'd lynch Ramicus if it came to it which seems to be what you want to do anyway.

Still, these are without reading the game so we'll have to see what changes when I've actually read D1.

Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch) I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and projectmatt.

The implication here is that you specifically scumread me

more

for having lynched scum D1, am I wrong?

I would say you are more right than wrong. 'Scumread' implies a level of read on you I wouldn't confidently say I have. I literally haven't read the game; it would be hard to have a punread

of any real strength

.

I would say it's more that I have an idea of

where I wouldn't look

and where I would look, and

you're in the area I would look

. Looking there doesn't make you pun, in of itself. It just means

I'm looking at you as a pun candidate

. Your application is on file and being processed; for all I know, when I read the game, it could be thrown into the shredder. But for the moment, it is being reviewed.

Scumread implies a level of read on you I don't have without having read the game. I have an idea where I wouldn't look and where I would look. You spearheading the D1 lynch in the way I am hearing it described is one of the areas I would look. That doesn't make you pun; it simply means

I am looking at you as a pun candidate

.

What I have actually said has remained the same.

I have reads. I have ideas for who is town and who is pun. These are not meaningless. They

are

based off of very little evidence, largely conjecture. Given that, I wouldn't place strong faith in them and you could classify the reads as varying degrees of weak. That does not invalidate them altogether. I have a direction to focus on. I am not positive that direction is the right one yet because I haven't read the game. That doesn't mean my feedback is worthless. If it held no value, I wouldn't be giving it.

[Punreader]

This claim is worth insta lynching?

This question was a good one, because while my role is insanely advantageous to a pun player and near-worthless to a town one, the point raised about claims being clearly indicative of alignment is a good one. Pun can and will have town-sounding roles, just as town will have pun-sounding ones. He did not deserve such a frosty welcoming.

I'm also going to hardclaim miller here and the miller has a flavour name too so i'd like to put the question to dave on what's the flavour name of your miller role.

Until then
VOTE: Davesaz

While the mod of this game is bold enough to brave the pitchforks of a pun miller, it doesn't take a PhD to figure out this is a town entrance. I especially buy the townslip:

So we're just assuming that safe claims are given now?

Yay!

VOTE: Davesaz

Because I don't trust sculptures.

Even without Ankamius's description, I sense a spark of town here.

Bringing out the Roy I LIKE THIS GAME ALREADY
VOTE: Kaede
Srs vote
Pedit: Ew.

I'm not quite sure what I should be Making this out to be.

Oh, is that a thing with GiF games?
I am willing to reveal flavor as requested, but would like to hear opinions on whether it's actually helpful and on whether the other miller claim should be required to do the same (presumably yes on first question implies absolutely yes on 2nd but that's just my opinion).

Certainly not a rock-hard townread I can tell you that.

Trust other people? What is this blasphemy?

I'm beginning to understand why people would want to ram this lynch through.

I'm not getting the Wilky hate. Like at all. Why in the world would scum fakeclaim miller to 1v1 a useless powerrole. Everyone on that wagon gets -10 town cred.

What does seem possible to me is that Dave fakeclaims miller and then CC'd.

vote:Dave

While the read here is understandable enough, I am tempted to Nero my vision down to a tunnel and just keep calling the slot pun.

[Punreader]

And kind of feel like you feel like you replaced into a floundering town if you're town, rather than one that's mostly on the right track but hasn't entirely gotten there yet.

I understand the motivation to be contrarian in such a situation but like read the actual game before you come to conclusions like 'town hasnt lynched its second scum yet so obviously all scum bussed and are no longer in contention for lynch!'

This is not a fair representation of my stances.

[Punreader]

Maybe I'm reading myself into you but that's what it feels like to me.

The reason I feel pun bussed can also be seen in another telltale sign:

VC 1.07

Tchill13 (1):

verylazy

wilky (1):

Ramcius

MariaR (1):

Nero Cain

Ventriloquist (10):

Ouroboros, ManWithNoName, MariaR, Wraith, Alchemist21, Kaede Akamatsu, davesaz, Tchill13, wilky, Ankamius

ManWithNoName (1):

Ventriloquist

Wraith (1):

Impossibear

Impossibear (1):

Dunnstral

davesaz (1):

hebichan

verylazy (1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

There is literally no counterwagon to the pun lynch. None, whatsoever, even remotely. There isn't even so much as a single wagon with two votes on it. If pun did not bus, if there were no pun involved in this lynch, then why would this be the case? It is of course

possible

for the pun to simply have been scattered and lack coordination, especially if lacking daychat. (I have reached the part in the game where that question was asked, but not where it was answered.)

But that is literally the only possible alternative to pun bussing.

If you instead assume pun did bus, then which names are the most likely to have done so? I don't see what really looks like what can be considered a solid pun block on there. If there's not a solid pun block on the lynch, yet pun bussed, the implication from it would be that the pun bussing was someone whose position carried disproportionate strength.

This is why I stated what I did.

You spearheading the D1 lynch in the way I am hearing it described is one of the areas I would look. That doesn't make you pun; it simply means I am looking at you as a pun candidate.

The evidence I have points to this as a feasible conclusion.
It is not the only conclusion.
The pun could all be scattered in various names.
The pun could be in various positions on the wagon.
The pun could be in a bloc on the wagon.

Those are all alternative possibilities to the conclusion the pun bussing was someone whose bus held strength. They are also viable. If I said that from the end of day votecount the evidence hard pointed to the conclusion of pun bussing with it being a hard pusher, that would be a lie because the other options remain, currently neither proven or disproven.

I also maintain by setup speculation that this game should be power role heavy and that of the roles claimed thusfar, few are notably suspect. An opinion which does clash with Jingle's apparently.

However, I also hold no doubt the town is mostly on the right track. I believe there are some potential oversights that my insight has shed light on. I believe that there are a few incorrect assumptions going around and a few data points which people overlooked that I saw. That doesn't make me right, and it doesn't make them wrong. It does mean that I feel they should have a closer look at things, while I take a first look at those very same things.

[Punreader]

4 down, 128 to go

5 of 40, actually. I'm going on five-page intervals until I finish D1. Any D2 content of importance, I will no doubt be pointed to.

[Punreader]

Verylazy I'm at least somewhat concerned about being SvS but I don't want to fall into the trap of just saying everyone who is wrong is scum here

Logically I know there is some context to this post which makes it make sense, but I am considering being greedy and calling it a punslip in order to incite the wrath of RC. I'm a glutton for punishment.

It wouldn't surprise me if Wilky has done research and is relying on the miller claim because he realises the host has done this before, especially since he chose to highlight that it wasn't far fetched for there to be 2 millers again. As Alchemist said though, this is relying on some pretty niche assumptions so I'm not buying it just yet.

I'm pretty sure that any puppeteer can tell you why this particular pulling of the strings projects willky as town.

[Punreader]

While many reads require little explanation (e.g. Ramicus),

I don't get how town Nero can get "oh 3 people claim neg utility so scum has to be fake claiming" without thinking if that's the case town has to have some great stuff or scum are underpowered etc etc.
Scum nero thinking that and using it as an agenda to push something makes a lot more sense though imo.

This is a genuine point I feel a particular need to emphasize. The riaR end of the post is what you're looking for; Nero's agenda matches what I'd expect from a pun player. The slot is now projectmatt, if I'm not mistaken.

The OMGUS is also uncharacteristic of a town Nero. He's usually the one

being

OMGUSed.

[Punreader]

Though that's not perfect and things start to fall apart balance wise in role madness games like this

I've questioned whether to bring this up or not but ultimately I suppose I'll take the risk. Dunn is in the unclaimed pool, but if everyone was paying attention, y'stral should have noticed he accidentally slipped being a PR here. That is thus an additional PR in the pool of players holding PRs, and consequentially, further evidence this game is role-heavy.

two town millers.

Not "two millers", two "town millers". Noted.

VC 1.01

Ventriloquist (2):

davesaz, hebichan

Ouroboros (1):

Alchemist21

Nero Cain (1):

Impossibear

Tchill13 (1):

verylazy

Kaede Akamatsu (1):

Dunnstral

MariaR (1):

Ramcius

davesaz (1):

wilky

wilky (5):

Ouroboros,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

ManWithNoName

, MariaR, Ankamius

WOW. There is

DEFINITELY

scum in this group. Make this the short-list for D1 lynch or N1 investigations.

Since I've no intention to read the vast majority of D2, I would like to ask ETL if these stances still hold.

Clarify man with no name and Ventriloquist townreads please

I also read the whole thing and I hold interest in modern reads on Ouroboros and the Nero slot and if town why.

Yeah I could get on board with a Vent wagon too

Is it not possible Tchill has a jester role of some sort? Not suggesting an insta win but I don't see how his claim could be helpful to town otherwise.

It wouldn't surprise me if Wilky has done research and is relying on the miller claim because he realises the host has done this before, especially since he chose to highlight that it wasn't far fetched for there to be 2 millers again. As Alchemist said though, this is relying on some pretty niche assumptions so I'm not buying it just yet.

Very suspicious post

Almost forgot, might as well elaborate on why I find this post very suspicious, because why not

He uses some rather

absurd

leaps in logic in two separate cases to paint a narrative picture about these two players, deliberately ignoring Occam's Razor in favor of stirring up WIFOM.

What is more likely? That TChill is running a Jester gambit? Or that TChill is fakeclaiming? TChill's was by far the least believable claim so far, and the most awkward (considering Kaede is mod-confirmed). By bringing up some a longshot possiblity, Vent is indirectly mounting a soft defense of TChill.

Simultaneously, he attempts to cast suspicion on Wilky with a similarly absurd leap. What's more likely? That Wilky is claiming Miller truthfully in a game run by a mod who apparently has a habit of these kinds of setup quirks? Or that Wilky is deliberately playing off mod meta to mount a roundabout fakeclaim gambit, with a claim that is by its nature instantly considered suspect by default?

I don't like that whatsoever. And after we get the VC I might consider switching my vote right now.

I'm quite serious when I say this is a stronger push than anything I've seen from RC. It's like comparing a slam-dunk case to a bunch of shade. He's just so much more solid.

I don't like Ventrilo's attempt push me, i dlike Wraith's "5 scum, no faceclaim", we still have Tchill/Wilky situation, Realmen asking to be burned with the fire, hebi's sheeping is unsettling, Nero is awkwardly silent

Hm, i guess i try

VOTE: Nero

others at least are talking

Okay so I know I said I didn't need to shove this up on you, but really, you should see this. Naming all of those people, especially Ventriloquist, and then going elsewhere for no reason.

[Punreader]

Hmm, I don't think I'll be able to finish D1 tonight.
I can finish it tomorrow.
In the mean time, I am taking suggestions on how to use my role or whether to use it at all. Feel free to point me to any ideas proposed already, as I have very few.

[Punreader]

Mod: I need a 48 hour V/LA.

More like 40, actually, but I can't post tomorrow or half of the day after.
I'll return when able to.

[Punreader]

I will not be able to catch up tonight; I will try tomorrow (though it may need to wait up to 60 hours).
However, I believe there is exactly one pun in Kokichi Oma/MariaR.
By that I mean I am absolutely positive one of them is pun, but I am also almost just as sure the other would be town.

I'll cast a vote on whichever of the two I deem more likely to be pun once I am more informed.

Full disclosure for reference: I did not use my role last night, as I did not get a chance to coordinate how I would use it.
I can tell you now that if we do not get a pun flip via lynching one of those two, my plan is to hide behind one (probably Kokichi Oma). This would allow me to give a two-for-one vig if the vig decided to shoot my announced target. If not, then this protects me from the pun nightkill if I hide behind pun or forces them to kill mislynch bait to take me out if I am someone they desire deceased.

[Punreader]

Hmm.
In the mean time.
VOTE: projectmatt.
It matters not which of Kokichi Oma/MariaR is pun; this remains pun regardless.

[Punreader]

I kind of feel like you feel like you replaced into a floundering town if you're town, rather than one that's mostly on the right track but hasn't entirely gotten there yet.
I understand the motivation to be contrarian in such a situation but like read the actual game before you come to conclusions like 'town hasnt lynched its second scum yet so obviously all scum bussed and are no longer in contention for lynch!'

They're scattered, divided, leaderless. There's no strength left in the world of scum.

...

I think ramcius is lynchbait town. davesaz push makes sense from townOTM perspective, also makes sense from scumOTM perspective. I prefer not to lynch either today and allow night actions to resolve them. (yeah yeah

"but mechaniiiiiiiiiiics bleeeeeh"

don't care, they exist so I'm not gonna ignore them) Mmmm I actually like pun's process here. Looks like he's actively trying to squeeze the most amount of valid analysis he can from the points of action he knows will yield it. So, no there.

Wraith is a cool lynch. Kokiri. Dunnstral. Yeah, that's about it. Those 3 are good choices for today imo.

Wraith is a cool lynch. Kokiri. Dunnstral. Yeah, that's about it. Those 3 are good choices for today imo.

I'd also include maria but jingle doesn't want so...

@Impossibear

- Please take a look at 3239 for my stance on Kokichi.

Dunn - I have no real opinion about him; he's not a high priority lynch.
Wraith - Same as above. You'd have to talk to RC about possible scum!Wraith since RC was leading the charge on that.

Within your group, here's my preference Kokichi -> Dunn -> Wraith.

Can you take a look at my preference and tell me your thoughts? (Kokichi, Punreader, Wilky)

Something like Ramcius/Dave/matt

"Town isn't floundering", Ouroboros said.

Maria voting Kokichi because me and Anony heavily encouraged her to says virtually nothing about her alignment, for the record.

My big 3 right now would be {Kokichi, Wraith, PJM}, I'm fine narrowing it down to your 3 but I'd probably actively resist a dunnstral lynch for today at least. other two very happy to see dead.

I still don’t want to lynch Ram. I still believe in the VI read I had on him.

Don’t want to lynch Dave either. I’ve already given my reasons on why not.

The tchill slot is my preferred lynch. Pun is certainly more vocal but I don’t see anything that says Town to me.

PJM/Dunn are two slots I could lynch even though I have them at null. My vote’s currently on Dunn, leftover from the earlier wagon.

I stopped Townreading MariaR a while back and could also vote there. I think there’s an SvT between Maria and Kokichi so info-wise one of them would be more preferable than PJM or Dunn.

Wraith, Gwen McNamara,

Commonwealth Vanilla

, was lynched Day 2.

"We're mostly on the right track", Ouroboros said.

Ouroboros, Deacon,

Commonwealth Limited Neighborizer Conditional Shared Tracker

, was killed Night 2.

"Scum are leaderless", Ouroboros said.

Ouroboros, I must say I respectably disagree with your viewpoint on the gamestate given my readthrough.

However, two of the three pun are projectmatt and MariaR.
I actually want this even stronger than I want projectmatt:
VOTE: MariaR.

[Punreader]

Actually, Maria can't be faking tracker, so keeping cards close to the chest is unimportant.

Sure, it is a given she can't be faking it. Telling the truth does not indicate her alignment is town though.

I claim in the hood with rc

I claim that 3750 is a flagrant punclaim.

VOTE: ProjectMatt
with Wraith flipping green, his Wraith defense at the end of the day looks like TMI and attempt to get town cred, he didn't tried save him, he just didn't wanted to be on ML wagon

You are not wrong.

I will vote whichever of MariaR/projectmatt has a larger wagon. If both have equal wagons, my vote defaults to MariaR.

By proxy, you may remember this is calling Kokichi town.

[Punreader]

Summary
MariaR is in a neighborhood with Dunn and Ouroboros created by Ouroboros.
That neighborhood also controls a tracker among all of them, track target must be agreed to by majority.
If there's 1 or more scum in the hood the track will always yield "didn't visit" regardless.
MariaR claims to track matt and getting "didn't visit"
matt confirms this.
wilky claims no result and blames OTM for it.
OTM says he targeted dave.

Alternative theory tying these together. MariaR is pun, and thus, regardless of whom was tracked, the result would be "didn't visit". projectmatt was selected (Ouroboros wanted it and MariaR knowing it could create a false negative went along with this) to falsely clear him as regardless of whether he took an action or not it would always display as him having not taken one due to MariaR's alignment being pun. willky's action failed because MariaR's role provided immunity to the investigation. (Alternatively, projectmatt has a blocking role and targeted willky.)

willky, Dunnstral, and OnTheMark are all town; MariaR and projectmatt completely messed up the town's actions.

Furthermore, JUNGLE is town who made a mistake.

[Punreader]

HAS COMMON INTERESTS:

Kaede Akamatsu
Wilky
Dunnstral
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle) (CAVEAT: Requires no serial killers as possible this game, which I believe from the wincon is the case)

HIGHLY LIKELY TOWN:

Ankamius
Alchemist21
hebichan/OnTheMark
verylazy/Kokichi Oma (CAVEAT: requires MariaR flipping pun)

LEFTOVERS:

Ramcius
davesaz

STRONG PUNREADS:

MariaR
Nero Cain/projectmatt

All of these are in my mind fairly self-explanatory, but I may need to unpack my process here a little so that everyone has a better understanding of these.

[Punreader]

Why Jungle can't be 4th member? 3 man mafia makes no sense

The idea that JUNGLE is pun here who claimed the powers he did and deliberately sabotaged them is absolutely flagrantly ridiculous. It doesn't happen. I'm sure someone intent on lynching JUNGLE will try to strawman this by linking to some game with a pun player whose actions had a passing resemblance to this game.

Doesn't matter. JUNGLE does not take this path as pun. Additionally, JUNGLE targeted Ouroboros with the quest for today, as proven by the moderator.

If JUNGLE were pun trying to deliberately sabotage their actions, they would target a player that they knew would live, such that they could get town credit while still enacting a pro-scum agenda.

However, targeting the nightkill only serves to make JUNGLE look

worse

. At a time where people are already inclined to lynch JUNGLE.

To put it together. JUNGLE, if pun, knew that as a consequence of his actions, players going into today would be suspicious of him, due to Impossibear not being conftown as promised. If he were pun, he would need to take an action to alleviate this. He would need to take an action that would make people want to spare him for longer. Yet if he were pun, then he targeted Ouroboros knowing he was targeting the player that would die. This sets him up for a lynch.

Far more likely is that it was an honest mistake, and that he had no way of predicting Ouroboros would be the pun's nightkill.

Or who is 4th then?

This, I do not know for sure. Given your early content, it remains possible to be you. However, given my overall feelings combined with your interactions, I would be more inclined to say it is another leftover.

As there is only one other leftover, process of elimination would indicate to me that davesaz is pun.

[Punreader]

First off:

Abilities:

• Bodyswap:
  At any point of the game, you may switch your role with your factional members by PMing the mod.

MOD: Say Player A started the game as the Factional Ability Swapper.
Say Player B started the game aligned with Player A and held the role of Hider.

Say Player A used the Factional Ability Swapper with Player B in the middle of D1.

If Player A was lynched on D1, what would they flip?
If Player B was lynched on D1, what would they flip?

I feel this is an important question which was neglected.

With that inquiry made,

HAS COMMON INTERESTS:

Kaede Akamatsu
Wilky
Dunnstral
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle) (CAVEAT: Requires no serial killers as possible this game, which I believe from the wincon is the case)

HIGHLY LIKELY TOWN:

Ankamius
Alchemist21
hebichan/OnTheMark
verylazy/Kokichi Oma (CAVEAT: requires MariaR flipping pun)

LEFTOVERS:

Ramcius
davesaz

STRONG PUNREADS:

MariaR
Nero Cain/projectmatt

All of these are in my mind fairly self-explanatory, but I may need to unpack my process here a little so that everyone has a better understanding of these.

I decided to unpack my process here after all. From the top down:

Kaede Akamatsu:

Even if Kaede hadn't popped the IC, I'd have Kaede in my townbloc because this is solidly Kaede's towngame; Akam see it clear as day. The IC was frankly an unnecessary redundancy. But with it, at least this read requires no further explanation.

wilky:

While many suspect wilky, few fingering wilky can give any real reasons as to why. The few who have presented their evidence have a process I find absolutely loony. I keep on seeing the suspicion thrown and the cases there and none of it matches what I have witnessed; there is a disconnect between the suspicion on the slot and what the slot has actually given.

Because my own read on wilky's contribution is that wilky's content has been insanely town-motivated. His reads may be less than optimal and his style of posting may be such that players have an innate bias to punreading him, but when you look past the surface level and actually dig into the process he has outlined, the truth shines through. Sure, he may not have the best of reads, but bad reads doesn't make a player of his caliber pun. If you take the time to look at

how

he got those reads, the process is one which is

incredibly

hard to fake, especially for a player who is both relatively new and reasonably unskilled.

Dunnstral:

If you have the extensive game history with him that I do, you can instantly tell this is solidly his towngame. Additionally, he is soft-cleared by MariaR. Regardless of MariaR's alignment, this result is something we can trust; if MariaR is town, the result is accurate and if MariaR is pun, the result is likely still not on a punbuddy, making him town no matter what.

One of these two metrics in of itself may not be enough to townbin him. If it were just a townread off of meta, the townread could be wrong; if it were just the result from Maria, it would be possible she was attempting to falsely clear her punbuddy (though I personally think that manifested in a different manner as I have indicated previously). However, both in tandem is enough to hard-lock him as town; this is a Dunn deal.

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE:

I explained this before, but perhaps I can simplify; calling Jungle pun is a violation of occam's razor when you take motivations into mind.
To start, let's establish a baseline.

• The motivation of a town player is to further the gamestate such that town can identify who is town/pun and coordinate to lynch and shut down pun.
  
• The motivation of a pun player is to further the gamestate such that pun are positioned to control the town. In a typical pun player, this can be subdivided into three motivations in this approximate strength:
  1. Survive as pun
     
  2. Protect punbuddies
     
  3. Control the town
     
  4. Shut the town down
  (That is not the strength they should be in, but it is the strength pun players play them in.)

Then, with these motivations in mind, examine REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE's actions.
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE claimed a role which, if specific conditions were fulfilled, would reveal the alignment of a player.
As town, the motivation of this is self-evident; further the gamestate to identify who is town/pun.
As pun, this requires it to be a move for towncred, as a subset of survivalism.

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE then failed to deliver on this promise.
As town, the motivation of this is self-evident; it was a human error.
As pun, this move would require REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE deliberately putting himself in harm's way (violating survivalism), remove his influence from the town (violating controlling the town), for the sake of not giving away a piece of information not likely to directly harm him (not contributing to protecting a punbuddy), which doesn't shut the town down as much as it denies them a service he had the ability to deny them simply by never using it/never claiming it.

If he were pun who intended to not give the service to the town, why not just neglect to claim it or even never use it?
By claiming it and failing to use it properly, he is placing himself in harm's way for no visible benefit.

This is furthered by his usage on Ouroboros.
If REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is town, the motivation for targeting Ouroboros is self-evident. Ouroboros is the same type of player as Impossibear; a competent hydra in a strong position to gamesolve, and REALMEN had no way of knowing Ouroboros would be the nightkill.

If REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is pun, the motivation for targeting Ouroboros requires giving up on surviving (as targeting the nightkill will garner further suspicion beyond the already-existing suspicion to come for the failure on Impossibear, setting himself up for the lynch), controlling the town, and protecting punbuddies for the sake of denying the town a service.

Yes, it is possible for REALMEN to be pun, but it requires navigating a labyrinth of justifications.

The simpler answer is he's town.

---

Impossibear:

I believe they hold a killing power and used it N1 on ManWithNoName. I believe they genuinely think (or thought at the very least) they were the N1 nightkill, saved by their bulletproof. Combining these two is the main source of the townread, but I can also cite strong potential for them gamesolving. However, upon unpacking my thoughts, I want to have them trade places with OnTheMark on my readslist. On the OTM side, you'll see why when I get there, but here for Impossibear, the reason for the degenerated read is that there are some potential red flags to them attempting to lead us astray. I still maintain they are more likely town than not, but it's not impossibear for them to be pun.

---

Ankamius:

This is a read based largely on me liking her thought process. The things she is doing look town. However, some element is absent which prevents me from locking her in as town. (What that element is, I do not know.) Additionally, separately from that, we're not synchronizing as well as I'd expect; I would anticipate her being my mius. This gives further hesitance, similar to my Impossibear feelings. All that said, she's still my strongest read I don't have as locktown.

Alchemist21:

My initial townread came from Ankamius's description of his play, which was one of the things I felt was dead on the mark in her analysis. Since then, I've had further exposure in the form of the first 20 pages of the game plus reading his content since I have replaced in; everything I've witnessed backs that initial assessment, with the tinders of a townread strongly present. Conclusion, strongly likely to be town, but not locktown.

OnTheMark:

I had OnTheMark as a hard townread because of a combination of his role (and play surrounding it) and general feeling around him indicating him to be town. I was kept from locktowning OnTheMark because my reasons were role and general feeling; there was no tangible reason I could point to, which was troubling enough that I wasn't willing to make that call at the time. I lacked hard evidence to prove it.

However, the process of unpacking my thoughts revealed one to me which I can lock onto. OnTheMark can now be locktowned because of OnTheMark's modus operandi as pun. If you assume wilky is town, then his failed action is hard, absolute proof of OnTheMark's innocence. This may seem counterintuitive; why does wilky as town with a failed action prove rather than condemn OnTheMark?

Because we are assuming that if wilky is town, his failure comes from pun. And if the source of his failure comes from pun, then OnTheMark would never abide by it in the first place. OnTheMark would never, EVER accept forcing a deliberate 1v1 with a player. He prefers subtle sabotage, not flagrantly blatant sabotage. If he sabotages a town action, he attempts to leave no trace of it, and being a claimed blocker with wilky's action failing is in no way, shape, or form subtle.

If OnTheMark were pun, he'd know wilky's failed action would create the 1v1. Yes, he may get wilky lynched by entering into that 1v1. Yet after having done so, he automatically earns himself a vig, and if he miraculously dodges the bullet, a lynch. That, not taking into account the possibility he

loses

the 1v1, getting lynched today, thus creating a player that otherwise would be a mislynch who is instead not only conftown but an investigative to boot.

As a result, OnTHeMark would adamantly, vehemently oppose any plan which would create the 1v1. I can cite past games if need be, but he himself any many others should be able to vouch for this description as accurate; avoiding giving the town confscum/conftown in the form of him/wilky.

Since wilky's action did fail, and I do think wilky to be town, you can thus conclude OnTheMark is by proxy also town, and as a result earns Impossibear's spot in my locktown.

Kokichi Oma:

Instead of describing what I like first, I'll start by raising why I hesitate to call him town. I was incredibly suspicious of his predecessor, and he is a skilled enough pun player to fool even those that claim they can read him, causing them to falsely clear him as town. In spite of those factors, I actually

do

hold some faith in Kaede's townread there. Additionally, I don't believe Kokichi-Maria is pun theater.

What I DO believe is that Kokichi Oma can genuinely read MariaR. I also don't believe he is lying about the read as town. Furthermore, I feel he wouldn't falsely punread her if he were pun. If he were pun, I strongly believe his strategy would be to hard-defend her, to white knight her if need be, and he is not doing that here, which is promising.

Ramicus:

I've basically explained this read already, but in short, while I haven't liked much of his content, I do like some of his more recent contributions and I feel like his interactions are not viable as pun bussing. That head-to-head is simply suicidal and I don't buy it.

davesaz:

When I started reading, I had foreknowledge that davesaz's miller claim was apparently retracted/changed into 'some negative utility' at a later point. This would explain his rather dodgy early actions and play, so I was willing to write it off as null. I would say that I would normally be heavily inclined to punread him otherwise. There is literally nothing town about him, but if I'm honest, the most daving thing is simply POE;

someone

has to be the fourth and I think he's the best candidate. Also, there is the chance he was in fact blocked N1.

MariaR:

My punread here is four-fold: Dodgy, sketchy play; setup speculation plus night action results; personal experience with her meta; trusting in Kokichi Oma's personal meta experience. Each of these, I can explain in detail.

MariaR is basically actively lurking through this game; she is frequently and consistently failing to provide pertinent game content and I can cite many instances including prod dodges which are absent in other games she is a player in. There's a bunch of posts I can quote but this is perhaps best done in a followthrough post as compiling the entire list here would make this post 20 times longer.

Setup speculation indicates we should have a pun in the investigative claims. We have MariaR's, we have the proven track from Ouroboros, we have wilky's delayed cop, we have Kaede's IC as conftown, we have Jungle's claimed ability to make another player's alignment revealed (even if he messed up on making it work), and in that pool you can reasonably expect there to be a pun.

It wasn't Ouroboros.
It's not Kaede.
I have townreads on wilky and Jungle.
Ergo, MariaR's role is likely a truthful investigative, just belonging to pun.

This is magnified by the outcome of events. Ouroboros just so happened to recruit MariaR at apparently the earliest opportunity. And then Ouroboros just so happened to die almost immediately after that. I feel the two events are in fact linked together. Yes, Ouroboros had other reasons to die, but I think that role contributed to it because pun knew what their role was.

My own experience with MariaR indicates this is far more likely to be her pungame than her towngame.

And then when you throw in that Kokichi Oma is perhaps the player on site I would most trust to be able to read her and he says she's pun, then I really think we should Maki this wagon happen sooner rather than later.

projectmatt:

I've been a close associate of Nero Cain's since before most of the players in this game even joined mafiascum. Over the years, I have gotten to know his play intimately. He can be aptly described as a ruder, more competent, more arrogant version of Creature.

By which, I mean, regardless of his alignment, he's going to be an ass, who presents a holier-than-thou attitude. Regardless of his alignment, his charisma is dismal. However, at his base, the same core tell always works on him regardless; when he is town, he is incredibly active to the point of being almost a spam poster, providing reads which are strong, confident, and accurate. He is in your face and always has something to say with what he says being game content rather than fluff.

When he is pun, he is a lurker. Mostly just lurking, since he does produce actual content when around (just at a far more infrequent rate), but he does a fair share of active lurking as well. I Cain tell you, having known him for the years that I have, this is squarely in the latter category. He was doing almost nothing the entire time he was around. If he were town, he'd have been all over Ventriloquist as well. His list of sins is great, and I'm not sure I can even properly describe all of them because as such a long-time associate these are things I just know rather than needing to explain to others.

I haven't gotten the chance to really read projectmatt content since then, but I wouldn't need to in order to conclude pun.

That having been said, the little content I have seen indicates pun as well. For instance, the Wraith defense at day end

did

seem like TMI, knowing he was going to flip town and hoping to earn town credit from not being on the lynch wagon.

[Punreader]

Since this wagon is larger:
VOTE: projectmatt.

[Punreader]

Pun, that question was asked in some form already. The role they would flip is the one they had at the time of their death.

Well nobody told ME that the question had been asked.

From that we can safely assume either the role swap had already happened (allowing pun to preserve their roles) or that Ventriloquist simply started with it and the pun valued their roles enough to let him flip with it.

It may be worth looking over Ventrilioquist's posts to see if there is any role breadcrumbs. If there are breadcrumbs present, we would be able to identify the holder of the role being breadcrumbed as pun.

Too many words :/

I considered breaking the post up into three or four sections, but that would still be the same amount of words. (Actually, breaking it up into four posts would technically be a few extra words.) Just distributed differently.

You do not need to read the whole wall. You do need to read the parts where I give a read you disagree with.
To reiterate:

Townbloc

HAS COMMON INTERESTS:

Kaede Akamatsu

Spoiler: Kaede

Even if Kaede hadn't popped the IC, I'd have Kaede in my townbloc because this is solidly Kaede's towngame; Akam see it clear as day. The IC was frankly an unnecessary redundancy. But with it, at least this read requires no further explanation.

Wilky

Spoiler: wilky

While many suspect wilky, few fingering wilky can give any real reasons as to why. The few who have presented their evidence have a process I find absolutely loony. I keep on seeing the suspicion thrown and the cases there and none of it matches what I have witnessed; there is a disconnect between the suspicion on the slot and what the slot has actually given.

Because my own read on wilky's contribution is that wilky's content has been insanely town-motivated. His reads may be less than optimal and his style of posting may be such that players have an innate bias to punreading him, but when you look past the surface level and actually dig into the process he has outlined, the truth shines through. Sure, he may not have the best of reads, but bad reads doesn't make a player of his caliber pun. If you take the time to look at

how

he got those reads, the process is one which is

incredibly

hard to fake, especially for a player who is both relatively new and reasonably unskilled.

Dunnstral

Spoiler: Dunnstral

If you have the extensive game history with him that I do, you can instantly tell this is solidly his towngame. Additionally, he is soft-cleared by MariaR. Regardless of MariaR's alignment, this result is something we can trust; if MariaR is town, the result is accurate and if MariaR is pun, the result is likely still not on a punbuddy, making him town no matter what.

One of these two metrics in of itself may not be enough to townbin him. If it were just a townread off of meta, the townread could be wrong; if it were just the result from Maria, it would be possible she was attempting to falsely clear her punbuddy (though I personally think that manifested in a different manner as I have indicated previously). However, both in tandem is enough to hard-lock him as town; this is a Dunn deal.

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Spoiler: REALMEN

I explained this before, but perhaps I can simplify; calling Jungle pun is a violation of occam's razor when you take motivations into mind.
To start, let's establish a baseline.

• The motivation of a town player is to further the gamestate such that town can identify who is town/pun and coordinate to lynch and shut down pun.
  
• The motivation of a pun player is to further the gamestate such that pun are positioned to control the town. In a typical pun player, this can be subdivided into three motivations in this approximate strength:
  1. Survive as pun
     
  2. Protect punbuddies
     
  3. Control the town
     
  4. Shut the town down
  (That is not the strength they should be in, but it is the strength pun players play them in.)

Then, with these motivations in mind, examine REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE's actions.
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE claimed a role which, if specific conditions were fulfilled, would reveal the alignment of a player.
As town, the motivation of this is self-evident; further the gamestate to identify who is town/pun.
As pun, this requires it to be a move for towncred, as a subset of survivalism.

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE then failed to deliver on this promise.
As town, the motivation of this is self-evident; it was a human error.
As pun, this move would require REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE deliberately putting himself in harm's way (violating survivalism), remove his influence from the town (violating controlling the town), for the sake of not giving away a piece of information not likely to directly harm him (not contributing to protecting a punbuddy), which doesn't shut the town down as much as it denies them a service he had the ability to deny them simply by never using it/never claiming it.

If he were pun who intended to not give the service to the town, why not just neglect to claim it or even never use it?
By claiming it and failing to use it properly, he is placing himself in harm's way for no visible benefit.

This is furthered by his usage on Ouroboros.
If REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is town, the motivation for targeting Ouroboros is self-evident. Ouroboros is the same type of player as Impossibear; a competent hydra in a strong position to gamesolve, and REALMEN had no way of knowing Ouroboros would be the nightkill.

If REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is pun, the motivation for targeting Ouroboros requires giving up on surviving (as targeting the nightkill will garner further suspicion beyond the already-existing suspicion to come for the failure on Impossibear, setting himself up for the lynch), controlling the town, and protecting punbuddies for the sake of denying the town a service.

Yes, it is possible for REALMEN to be pun, but it requires navigating a labyrinth of justifications.

The simpler answer is he's town.

hebichan/OnTheMark

Spoiler: OTM

I had OnTheMark as a hard townread because of a combination of his role (and play surrounding it) and general feeling around him indicating him to be town. I was kept from locktowning OnTheMark because my reasons were role and general feeling; there was no tangible reason I could point to, which was troubling enough that I wasn't willing to make that call at the time. I lacked hard evidence to prove it.

However, the process of unpacking my thoughts revealed one to me which I can lock onto. OnTheMark can now be locktowned because of OnTheMark's modus operandi as pun. If you assume wilky is town, then his failed action is hard, absolute proof of OnTheMark's innocence. This may seem counterintuitive; why does wilky as town with a failed action prove rather than condemn OnTheMark?

Because we are assuming that if wilky is town, his failure comes from pun. And if the source of his failure comes from pun, then OnTheMark would never abide by it in the first place. OnTheMark would never, EVER accept forcing a deliberate 1v1 with a player. He prefers subtle sabotage, not flagrantly blatant sabotage. If he sabotages a town action, he attempts to leave no trace of it, and being a claimed blocker with wilky's action failing is in no way, shape, or form subtle.

If OnTheMark were pun, he'd know wilky's failed action would create the 1v1. Yes, he may get wilky lynched by entering into that 1v1. Yet after having done so, he automatically earns himself a vig, and if he miraculously dodges the bullet, a lynch. That, not taking into account the possibility he

loses

the 1v1, getting lynched today, thus creating a player that otherwise would be a mislynch who is instead not only conftown but an investigative to boot.

As a result, OnTHeMark would adamantly, vehemently oppose any plan which would create the 1v1. I can cite past games if need be, but he himself any many others should be able to vouch for this description as accurate; avoiding giving the town confscum/conftown in the form of him/wilky.

Since wilky's action did fail, and I do think wilky to be town, you can thus conclude OnTheMark is by proxy also town, and as a result earns Impossibear's spot in my locktown.

Strong Townreads

HIGHLY LIKELY TOWN:

Ankamius

Spoiler: Ankamius

This is a read based largely on me liking her thought process. The things she is doing look town. However, some element is absent which prevents me from locking her in as town. (What that element is, I do not know.) Additionally, separately from that, we're not synchronizing as well as I'd expect; I would anticipate her being my mius. This gives further hesitance, similar to my Impossibear feelings. All that said, she's still my strongest read I don't have as locktown.

Alchemist21

Spoiler: Alchemist21

My initial townread came from Ankamius's description of his play, which was one of the things I felt was dead on the mark in her analysis. Since then, I've had further exposure in the form of the first 20 pages of the game plus reading his content since I have replaced in; everything I've witnessed backs that initial assessment, with the tinders of a townread strongly present. Conclusion, strongly likely to be town, but not locktown.

Impossibear

Spoiler: Impossibear

I believe they hold a killing power and used it N1 on ManWithNoName. I believe they genuinely think (or thought at the very least) they were the N1 nightkill, saved by their bulletproof. Combining these two is the main source of the townread, but I can also cite strong potential for them gamesolving. However, upon unpacking my thoughts, I want to have them trade places with OnTheMark on my readslist. On the OTM side, you'll see why when I get there, but here for Impossibear, the reason for the degenerated read is that there are some potential red flags to them attempting to lead us astray. I still maintain they are more likely town than not, but it's not impossibear for them to be pun.

verylazy/Kokichi Oma

Spoiler: Kokichi Oma

Instead of describing what I like first, I'll start by raising why I hesitate to call him town. I was incredibly suspicious of his predecessor, and he is a skilled enough pun player to fool even those that claim they can read him, causing them to falsely clear him as town. In spite of those factors, I actually

do

hold some faith in Kaede's townread there. Additionally, I don't believe Kokichi-Maria is pun theater.

What I DO believe is that Kokichi Oma can genuinely read MariaR. I also don't believe he is lying about the read as town. Furthermore, I feel he wouldn't falsely punread her if he were pun. If he were pun, I strongly believe his strategy would be to hard-defend her, to white knight her if need be, and he is not doing that here, which is promising.

Nulls

LEFTOVERS:

Ramcius

Spoiler: Ramicus

I've basically explained this read already, but in short, while I haven't liked much of his content, I do like some of his more recent contributions and I feel like his interactions are not viable as pun bussing. That head-to-head is simply suicidal and I don't buy it.

davesaz

Spoiler: davesaz

When I started reading, I had foreknowledge that davesaz's miller claim was apparently retracted/changed into 'some negative utility' at a later point. This would explain his rather dodgy early actions and play, so I was willing to write it off as null. I would say that I would normally be heavily inclined to punread him otherwise. There is literally nothing town about him, but if I'm honest, the most daving thing is simply POE;

someone

has to be the fourth and I think he's the best candidate. Also, there is the chance he was in fact blocked N1.

Strong Punreads

STRONG PUNREADS:

MariaR

Spoiler: MariaR

My punread here is four-fold: Dodgy, sketchy play; setup speculation plus night action results; personal experience with her meta; trusting in Kokichi Oma's personal meta experience. Each of these, I can explain in detail.

MariaR is basically actively lurking through this game; she is frequently and consistently failing to provide pertinent game content and I can cite many instances including prod dodges which are absent in other games she is a player in. There's a bunch of posts I can quote but this is perhaps best done in a followthrough post as compiling the entire list here would make this post 20 times longer.

Setup speculation indicates we should have a pun in the investigative claims. We have MariaR's, we have the proven track from Ouroboros, we have wilky's delayed cop, we have Kaede's IC as conftown, we have Jungle's claimed ability to make another player's alignment revealed (even if he messed up on making it work), and in that pool you can reasonably expect there to be a pun.

It wasn't Ouroboros.
It's not Kaede.
I have townreads on wilky and Jungle.
Ergo, MariaR's role is likely a truthful investigative, just belonging to pun.

This is magnified by the outcome of events. Ouroboros just so happened to recruit MariaR at apparently the earliest opportunity. And then Ouroboros just so happened to die almost immediately after that. I feel the two events are in fact linked together. Yes, Ouroboros had other reasons to die, but I think that role contributed to it because pun knew what their role was.

My own experience with MariaR indicates this is far more likely to be her pungame than her towngame.

And then when you throw in that Kokichi Oma is perhaps the player on site I would most trust to be able to read her and he says she's pun, then I really think we should Maki this wagon happen sooner rather than later.

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Spoiler: Nero Can/projectmatt

I've been a close associate of Nero Cain's since before most of the players in this game even joined mafiascum. Over the years, I have gotten to know his play intimately. He can be aptly described as a ruder, more competent, more arrogant version of Creature.

By which, I mean, regardless of his alignment, he's going to be an ass, who presents a holier-than-thou attitude. Regardless of his alignment, his charisma is dismal. However, at his base, the same core tell always works on him regardless; when he is town, he is incredibly active to the point of being almost a spam poster, providing reads which are strong, confident, and accurate. He is in your face and always has something to say with what he says being game content rather than fluff.

When he is pun, he is a lurker. Mostly just lurking, since he does produce actual content when around (just at a far more infrequent rate), but he does a fair share of active lurking as well. I Cain tell you, having known him for the years that I have, this is squarely in the latter category. He was doing almost nothing the entire time he was around. If he were town, he'd have been all over Ventriloquist as well. His list of sins is great, and I'm not sure I can even properly describe all of them because as such a long-time associate these are things I just know rather than needing to explain to others.

I haven't gotten the chance to really read projectmatt content since then, but I wouldn't need to in order to conclude pun.

That having been said, the little content I have seen indicates pun as well. For instance, the Wraith defense at day end

did

seem like TMI, knowing he was going to flip town and hoping to earn town credit from not being on the lynch wagon.

There. Now you only have to read the parts which you wish to.

No excuses for skipping it.

[Punreader]

Nero was lurky as scum in Necromancer too.

As a thought experiment. Let me demonstrate to you Nero Cain's meta.
This is a list of every Large Theme Nero Cain has posted in.

This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. While not two pages, that game suffered from numerous hastened deaths; having as many posts as he does there is still impressively large.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. NINE pages. (Caveat: everyone that game had more posts than normal.)
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages, and that's only from two gamedays.
This is just about one of the shortest towngames you'll find from Nero Cain.
This is Nero Cain's more typical iso once more as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Short for him, I will admit.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as a lategame replacement. Keep the timing of his replacement in mind for the amount of volume he produced.
As far as I can tell, Nero Cain was town here. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Shorter than most, but still two pages.
I'm excluding this game as Nero Cain replaced in late during the day and was killed that very same night, unless anyone has objections. If you do object and wish to count it as valid, then may I continue to point out what is more typical?
Such as this Nero Cain iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages. And he only had one day phase to produce it, as he died N1.
Considering the length of the game, this is fairly short, but Nero Cain's iso as town still managed the feat.
I do confess another shorter iso would be this one as town.
I should technically mention this iso here as well is short, but for good reason; note the V/LA which led to him being replaced. To offset that,
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Four pages.
This is a shorter Nero Cain iso as town. It is shorter because they died N1, yet still managed over a hundred posts.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
I am fairly certain Nero Cain is Gollum and thus this is his iso as town. Shorter at two pages, but still broke the barrier.
If Nero Cain is Gollum, This is his iso as town. Two pages, and he died N1 no less.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages, so a bit short given the duration he was alive.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages, so a bit short given the duration he was alive.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Four pages.

This is Nero Cain's iso as pun.
This is Nero Cain's iso as pun. Multiball, to boot. Yet he still didn't post much comparatively speaking.
This is Nero Cain as pun doing respectably well. And it spanned the entire game (he was the last pun alive).
This is a little bit longer an iso from Nero Cain as pun yet he still didn't breach the two-page barrier.
This is the one and only example of Nero Cain breaching the barrier as pun I can find. If I had to suspect, multiball may play a part.
This is Nero Cain as pun across multiple day phases with a hydra partner still failing to breach the barrier.
This is Nero Cain as the last surviving pun coming close but still failing.
This is Nero Cain's iso as pun.
Nero Cain did breach the barrier in this game as pun, but it is noteworthy that game was multiball which I again suspect played a part.
This is Nero Cain's iso as pun.
So this game featured cultafia and thus I'm not sure if he started as town or not, and he did request replacement, but all the same I thought I would mention this Nero Cain iso as pun.

Not mentioned because I know he was in the game as a hydra but I don't know what his account name was: this game.

That is five years' worth of meta on Nero Cain for Large Themes.

Five years

, the last five years, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2013 (which I didn't go back to the beginning of the year on, just up until the beginning of March 2013).

Can Nero Cain's activity tell in of itself guarantee his alignment? No, it cannot; there are outliers as town where he produced less content and outliers as pun where he produced more. But it is one of the most solid tells you can have on site. If you doubt the tell, try checking out the towngames I am linking to and compare them to the pungames I am linking to.

This is thoroughly his punplay.

And as projectmatt inherited the slot, he is pun.

[Punreader]

(I'll be a bit miffed if nobody takes the time to at least take a cursory look at what I just provided given it took me an hour to compile just five years out of the total of eight years of Large Theme games.)

[Punreader]

davesaz:

When I started reading, I had foreknowledge that davesaz's miller claim was

apparently retracted/changed into 'some negative utility'

at a later point.

The underlined is incorrect.
I stated that I'm miller. At a later point I said that my "ability" section had flavor in it. There has never been a retraction / change about the role -- it's straight Commonwealth miller with nothing else, and nothing but the flavor in the ability section.

Oh, that makes a difference then. I was under the impression from the list of claims that it had changed later in the game during a section I hadn't read.

With the knowledge it hasn't, you become a reasonably solid punread. Not as solid as MariaR and projectmatt (the Strong Punread section), but enough to have your own special category of "Punread".

Though I'm tempted to lump you in with them for this.

Punreader's analysis assumes a: that scum!Jungle wouldn't gambit, b: that town would inevitably lynch scum!Jungle after these events making it a low chance of success.

Yes, and those are safe assumptions to make as assuming those is working with occam's razor whereas assuming JUNGLE gambits as pun and that the town wouldn't inevitably lynch a pun JUNGLE is a violation of occam's razor.

I don't know if a gambit is likely or unlikely, I just know it can't be ruled out.

Nothing "can be ruled out". There is (almost) nothing which is impossible in a game. (Almost) everything CAN happen.

The job of a town player is to determine

which things most likely

did

happen

.

Gambiting is something which could have happened.
It is not something that is likely to have happened.

Ignoring the probability (rather, lack thereof) of it happening in favor of embracing the possibility it happened is thoroughly a pro-pun agenda.

The PLAN might have been for Impossibear to die, and scum!Jungle is then functionally a loud fruit vendor at very little risk.

When did JUNGLE claim the power? Was it on D1? This is something I don't know.

So feel free to correct me here, if JUNGLE announced his power on D1.

If JUNGLE didn't claim the power until D2, then this scenario you are outlining is impossible. The plan going awry? Well then JUNGLE simply has no need to claim the action.

Not claiming it loses the possibility of using it at all.

Yes, and if the power is pro-town and JUNGLE is pun...why is this a bad thing for the pun?

Having a competent mod design a quest with that degree of complexity and then allowing it to fail on a technicality when the intent was clear stretches credibility a little.

Counterpoint: this is a game moderated by GuyInFreezer. I know his modding well enough to know this is

precisely

the sort of stunt he would pull.

I suppose a mod could be that hardcore and town!Jungle could make that mistake, but it seems very unlikely.

What seems unlikely to me is you trying to find every possible reason to call JUNGLE pun ignoring all the reasons why he is likely town.

Moving on to the question of whether town would inevitably punish scum!Jungle with a lynch -- it seems that WIFOM might be king here and we might not do so simply on the "mistake".

Oh? And where do you draw the line on WIFOM? Everything could be WIFOM. So what WIFOM is 'valid' to you, and what WIFOM is 'invalid' to you? You can call anything WIFOM and I can demonstrate this quite easily if you doubt me. So what makes the possibility here be WIFOM to you worth invoking that name?

But that is very short sighted, to excuse it as human error and not a possible gambit.

No, that is called following occam's razor with a dosage of hanlon's razor:
Not attributing to malice what can best be explained far more simply with stupidity.
The simple answer is stupidity.
The complex answer requiring contrived justifications is malice based on some possible gambit.

If we look at Jungle

outside the quest info

, what would the read be?

If we look at JUNGLE outside of the quest info, the read would be solidly nulltown; there is nothing indicating pun and yet minor signs indicating town.

[Punreader]

I've mentioned this before in other games, but I haven't been keeping solid track on who I've seen as scum and who I haven't. So I don't know if I have seen Nero lurk as scum.
I can say conclusively that the argumentative and pushy Nero that I've seen as town was not present in this game. And Projectmatt's posting hasn't struck me as town.

I would be willing to accept a Projectmatt lynch if necessary, but would prefer that we resolve Jungle. If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

"I'm not going to lynch pun #1 in spite of acknowledging the evidence against him".

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

"I'm not going to lynch pun #2 on the basis of role-related reasons; we should wait for her to produce conftown in spite of me having just said we should not allow JUNGLE to produce results". (Hello, hypocrite.)

I know you're IC and all, but nice job on Wraith there. I never did get the explanation that I wanted on that. IC's wanting to lynch obvtown is sadly a thing.

This is the absolute most pro-pun thing a player can do to a person that is conftown; he is attempting to discredit Kaede's push/content now off of Kaede's push yesterday when

Kaede wasn't even the main pusher of the Wraith lynch

.

Did I say davesaz was in a special punread category?

My mistake.

He is in the strong punreads category with MariaR and projectmatt.

[Punreader]

I feel perhaps my snark weakens the strength of my point. So to reiterate,

If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

What differentiates these two, davesaz?

You are saying to lynch Jungle on the possibility his role may damage us; you are willing to sacrifice the utility of his ability.

You are saying to not lynch Maria on the possibility her role may help us; you are not willing to sacrifice the utility of her ability.

Care to offer an explanation?

[Punreader]

@Kaede -- quote anything from Jungle that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously town. Anything that is making the slightest effort to solve the game.

Innocent until proven guilty; the burden of proof is on the accuser.

@dave: quote anything from JUNGLE that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously pun. Anything that is making the slightest effort to manipulate the town.

[Punreader]

>when your 2 sr's are the biggest wagon
it's Christmas time to see who I can lynch first

And yet you vote neither.

[Punreader]

Town OTM and town you is possible if we make the additional assumption of Scum JK/Busdriver.

Or even redirector. I concluded these three roles were possible already, and I maintain that projectmatt is the most likely holder of them.

There is no scum motivation to giving the vig the Party Starter if the vig is hard townreading you (we were, fairly obviously). There is no scum motivation in NOT giving the strong willed modifier to your partner if there is a town RB. OTM claimed yesterday. The paranoia wrt to OTM makes perfect sense from someone who isn't nuts in the exact same way as me

This is enough to move Alchemist into my locktown pile, as I buy this.

AND because of RC's setup spec D2.

For the record, it was the spec which prompted me to ask the question to the mod about the ability swapper. The reason I asked was because I don't really agree with the setup speculation; if you wish to townread me, then utilizing other reasoning is for the best.

With that said, I'm going to drop an action plan for Maria shortly to hopefully turn her and her neighbor into a mason pair, so it's a bad lynch today anyway.

I maintain that any plan which relies on her being town is a bad plan, but acknowledge we can have better lynches and that the plan will at least help demonstrate her alignment when she refuses to cooperate.

I don't think you should telegraph your hide tonight because: There's probably a busdriver

I don't see why. The mod told me my Hide is equal to a Commute in NAR. This means I always hide behind my intended target. Now, if pun want to shoot my target when I'm hiding behind players that should be lynched, power to them. If town wants to shoot my target when I'm hiding behind players that should be lynched, then they would be taking that shot anyway.

[Punreader]

Pun, do you have experience with projectmatt?

Enough to say he is one of the most underrated pun players on the site. He has an elite pungame which consistently performs quite well, yet almost nobody seems to be aware of this. I would attribute it at least in part to not being able to strongly differentiate between his towngame and his pungame.

His pungame is almost identical to his towngame in my experience, making it difficult to distinguish between the two. Yet he is an incredibly

good

town player, which translates into extreme hesitance to lynch him when he is pun because he is a master of making it look like he is a good town player when he is pun.

This doesn't mean it is impossible to read him, of course. I acknowledge I personally hold little ability to tell the difference and that he is incredibly competent as either alignment. This is one of the main reasons why I am adamant you not trust him and ignore that he replaced Nero Cain. Nero had strong evidence which suggested overwhelmingly he was far more likely to be pun than town, and projectmatt regardless of his alignment was going to make people like him because

that's just what he does

.

[Punreader]

Pun, do you have experience with projectmatt?

Actually, can you go more into your Alchemist read specifically?

Not particularly, no. Aside from how the evidence Impossibear gives does move him into town, I have been viewing his actions and seen a player who I can see the town thought process behind his actions.

I may not agree with what Alchemist21 has been doing (similar to wilky), but I can still understand what he is doing, how he got to where he is, and trace the thought process. It demonstrates an incredibly visible, easy-to-read narrative, one which is not likely to come from a pun player. He felt highly transparent, but with just enough opaque that it wasn't out of the question altogether for him to be pun.

Knowing what his role is removes that opaqueness altogether and now I feel like I can see the full picture of his process, start to finish, thus the read upgrade.

[Punreader]

Since there have been changes to my reads, an update:

HAS COMMON INTERESTS:

Kaede Akamatsu
Wilky
hebichan/OnTheMark
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

HIGHLY LIKELY TOWN:

Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle) (may deserve to be higher again)
Ankamius
verylazy/Kokichi Oma

LEFTOVER:

Ramcius

STRONG PUNREADS:

davesaz
MariaR
Nero Cain/projectmatt

[Punreader]

requoting in case pun missed it.

I didn't, but I indicated why looking won't be of use already:

Pun, do you have experience with projectmatt?

Enough to say he is one of the most underrated pun players on the site. He has an elite pungame which consistently performs quite well, yet almost nobody seems to be aware of this. I would attribute it at least in part to not being able to strongly differentiate between his towngame and his pungame.

His pungame is almost identical to his towngame in my experience, making it difficult to distinguish between the two. Yet he is an incredibly

good

town player, which translates into extreme hesitance to lynch him when he is pun because he is a master of making it look like he is a good town player when he is pun.

This doesn't mean it is impossible to read him, of course. I acknowledge I personally hold little ability to tell the difference and that he is incredibly competent as either alignment. This is one of the main reasons why I am adamant you not trust him, and not ignore that he replaced Nero Cain. Nero had strong evidence which suggested overwhelmingly he was far more likely to be pun than town, and projectmatt regardless of his alignment was going to make people like him because

that's just what he does

.

I already know that regardless of your alignment you will produce content which looks good and I acknowledge I personally have little ability to distinguish between good-town and good-pun. That is one of the reasons I am using the more reliable metric of Nero's content.

also pun, have you played with me on mafiascum or on another mafia website? i'm genuinely curious, just because i don't play here that often.

Both. I believe you originated from EpicMafia, yes? (I could be misremembering my scummer history there, but I seem to distinctly recall you were a prominent player there back in the day.) Additionally, we may have had one or two games on some other site beyond there, but if so I wouldn't recall the specifics.

Not lynching scum Jungle is likely worse than lynching town Jungle.
I’m very concerned that scum Jungle could play a fruit vendor all the way to endgame. How many broken quests would it take?

This still fails to answer my question.

If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

What differentiates these two, davesaz?

You are saying to lynch Jungle on the possibility his role may damage us; you are willing to sacrifice the utility of his ability.

You are saying to not lynch Maria on the possibility her role may help us; you are not willing to sacrifice the utility of her ability.

Care to offer an explanation?

Sometimes ruling out the unlikely case is necessary. If logical answers always worked town win rates would be higher.

And where, precisely, do you draw the line on ruling out unlikely cases?

Impossibear could be a pun bulletproof vig. That's possible, yes? By your logic, you can and should be calling them pun.

Unless you can tell me how JUNGLE is distinctly different.

Scum lie and because they lie sometimes the unlikely answer is the correct one.

Scum can also be caught in those lies and yet you are adamant we not offer a chance for this to happen. If you're so sure JUNGLE is lying, then why not wait for it to be proven?

Furthermore. I asked you to provide reason aside from the roleclaim for why JUNGLE is suspicious as the burden of proof lies on the accuser. Where is it?

I already said I agree with a projectmatt lynch, if that is where consensus lies.

That is where the consensus lies. Why isn't your vote there?

[Punreader]

see i don't want to push ETL anymore because she's doing the exact thing that RC does as town (and sometimes as scum) which is literally

"you are scumreading me and you are trying to piss me off and I can't stand a push on me and im so mad so if you push me i will powerlynch you"

I don't want to deal with this then end up having ETL town


i'm still down to MANwagon verylazy

sometimes even the best scum players get unlucky or get investigated

THEN INVESTIGATE ME.

will do, cupcake


we were just gushing over how good you are as scum! join the party!

First point: Jungle’s ISO before the announcement of the Day One Cop.

Jungle is 100% adamant about ETL being scum.

100% luck, 0% skill

when all ins are free you're bound to river eventually. whatever

--

Impossibear has received a quest, the quest was given by me. they need to perform the following actions today to complete the quest:

1. be vote #3 on a wagon today that reaches L-1, this L-1 wagon must be reflected in the vote count
2. be the hammer on today's lynch

successfully performing the above actions will complete the quest and allow them to be publically daycopped tomorrow so we get another IC or confscum.

quests changes every night and GIF will tell me what the new quest is

This is Jungle’s first post.

Keep in mind this doesn’t have any reads any sort of post or any sort of guidance. Furthermore he refuses to scumread or townread or talk about the wilky slot which also claimed cop.

If I was town and spent literally the entire day on a plan, I have three alarms and a fucking reminder to submit correctly. His entire day was focused on this plan. You’re expecting me to believe he just made a mistake?

I'm sorry but are you trying to write a case for JUNGLE being town or being pun?

Because you're doing the former as far as I can tell. What you're showing is evidence which strongly corroborates the narrative that REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is a town player who was interested in revealing Impossibear's alignment.

What you're disproving is the narrative that REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE was pun hoping to sabotage the town through some convoluted method.

[Punreader]

Punreader has done zilch to help the slot as well.

Oh really?

Spoiler: I suppose these are nothing, then?

However, if you're itching for analysis right now without reading anything, a freebie: most of the punteam bussed.

I submit as proof both the pun lynch fairly early, and that you haven't managed to lynch pun since then with a significantly longer D2. That would suggest you're looking in the wrong places. If you're looking off the wagon, that would explain things quite nicely. I'd need far better grounding in the game to be able to name specific names.

Tchill13 was very scummy... but I want to see what punreader does to see if they can reverse my read.

Overall impression from your reads is that almost all of your strong town, off of the reasoning you have given, are slots I'd be

concerned

about. In contrast, your normal townreads look fairly likely to be accurate. I lack the information to give feedback on those below the townread line off of your one post.

Overall impression from your reads is that almost all of your strong town, off of the reasoning you have given, are slots I'd be concerned about.

Why?

Your description of their play is describing things I would immediately be severely cautious about coming from the players in question.

Kaede- IC
Jungle- Weird Joat
Wilky- Miller Slow Cop
Maria- Some Kind of Investigative
OTM- Weird RB
Tchill- Non weak hider
Us- BP Vig w/ unspecified modifier
Flipped: Ability Swapper
For setup spec reference, cause I'm gonna want pun to do the same thing when they get their ass in here.

Ankamius
Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells)
Ramcius
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
davesaz- NEG UTIL
Kokichi Oma- Unclaimed
projectmatt- Unclaimed
Wraith- Unclaimed

Well quick analysis would be that there's probably 2-3 pun in the unclaimed with 0-1 pun in the claimed. My role can act as a self-protective, your role has a protective, OnTheMark's roleblock gives a third source of killstopping power. This seems reasonable from town, but I would become suspect of an additional killstopper claim.

Kaede as an IC, the ability to get a second alignment confirmation, the miller slow cop, and the investigative is a little on the heavy side in terms of investigating. It's possible there's a pun in there, but not guaranteed. I would definitely lynch in there if we had an additional investigative claim.

I'd need to see the whole set of roles in the game for more thorough analysis. It'd be Impossible before then. Do bear with me.

Ventriloquist (10):

Ouroboros,

ManWithNoName

, MariaR (Investigative), Wraith, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz (negative utility), Tchill13, wilky (Miller Slow Cop), Ankamius

If I'm honest, the only names here which don't immediately look town are Ouroboros and MariaR. Outside chance, Ankamius. But I'll let this analysis sit in the fridge a while and cool off while I go read.

We have too much power claimed and a flipped scum. That means strong townreads outside of the claimed power roles are disproportionally more likely to be accurate.

Respectfully, I disagree. I strongly believe the unclaimed would contain a minimum of one pun, if not two. I would expect this game to be almost, but not quite, role madness. I'd expect 2-4 vanillas in the game total (let's say 3), including the one flipped already. Everyone else I would anticipate holding a role.

If you treat the game as role madness, you use a different metric to read game balance than a metric for a game that is predominantly vanilla. No matter which three names are pun, the game fundamentally

cannot

be predominantly vanilla. Ergo, the unclaimed aren't more cleared; they're more suspicious.

Kaede- IC
Jungle- Weird Joat
Wilky- Miller Slow Cop
Maria- Some Kind of Investigative
OTM- Weird RB
Tchill- Non weak hider
Us- BP Vig w/ unspecified modifier
Flipped: Ability Swapper
For setup spec reference, cause I'm gonna want pun to do the same thing when they get their ass in here.

Ankamius
Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells)
Ramcius
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
davesaz- NEG UTIL
Kokichi Oma- Unclaimed
projectmatt- Unclaimed
Wraith- Unclaimed

Well quick analysis would be that there's probably 2-3 pun in the unclaimed with 0-1 pun in the claimed. My role can act as a self-protective, your role has a protective, OnTheMark's roleblock gives a third source of killstopping power. This seems reasonable from town, but I would become suspect of an additional killstopper claim.

Kaede as an IC, the ability to get a second alignment confirmation, the miller slow cop, and the investigative is a little on the heavy side in terms of investigating. It's possible there's a pun in there, but not guaranteed. I would definitely lynch in there if we had an additional investigative claim.

I'd need to see the whole set of roles in the game for more thorough analysis. It'd be Impossible before then. Do bear with me.

Extrapolating from my conclusions thusfar, it would be fair to state I would not lynch most of the claimed roles at this juncture. Outside chance of MariaR but I wouldn't be comfortable concluding that so hastily; I'm not married to the concept.

I would lynch in the unclaimed players. Off of description of play, I'm not too concerned about Wraith or Alchemist21. (I'll concoct more tangible analysis later.) I'm also not so concerned about Dunnstral. (He's a read I don't need to put much effort into before getting dun.)
Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch) I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and projectmatt.
I wouldn't be confident he'd flip pun, but I'd lynch Ramicus if it came to it which seems to be what you want to do anyway.

Still, these are without reading the game so we'll have to see what changes when I've actually read D1.

Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch) I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and projectmatt.

The implication here is that you specifically scumread me

more

for having lynched scum D1, am I wrong?

I would say you are more right than wrong. 'Scumread' implies a level of read on you I wouldn't confidently say I have. I literally haven't read the game; it would be hard to have a punread of any real strength.

I would say it's more that I have an idea of where I wouldn't look and where I would look, and you're in the area I would look. Looking there doesn't make you pun, in of itself. It just means I'm looking at you as a pun candidate. Your application is on file and being processed; for all I know, when I read the game, it could be thrown into the shredder. But for the moment, it is being reviewed.

Dave Wraith ProjectMatt Ank RC ETL Kokichi should have all the scums I think

@Pun
What do you think is right? Wrong? And maybe?

I would off of Ankamius's description think Wraith is wrong.
I would think Dave, outside chance at Ank (otherwise a wrong), severely outside chance of ETL (most likely a wrong), and Kokichi qualify as 'Maybe'.

I wouldn't go so far as to say ProjectMatt and RC are 'right', but they are focal points of mine.

Ask me again after I read D1; it's too early to really be certain.

That's not the question I asked.

Not precisely, no, but it's the most accurate answer you'll receive. You asked a question expecting it to be a yes or no question but it wasn't actually something I could answer with a 'yes' or a 'no'.

Scumread implies a level of read on you I don't have without having read the game. I have an idea where I wouldn't look and where I would look. You spearheading the D1 lynch in the way I am hearing it described is one of the areas I would look. That doesn't make you pun; it simply means I am looking at you as a pun candidate.

I'm also going to hardclaim miller here and the miller has a flavour name too so i'd like to put the question to dave on what's the flavour name of your miller role.

Until then
VOTE: Davesaz

While the mod of this game is bold enough to brave the pitchforks of a pun miller, it doesn't take a PhD to figure out this is a town entrance. I especially buy the townslip:

So we're just assuming that safe claims are given now?

Yay!

VOTE: Davesaz

Because I don't trust sculptures.

Even without Ankamius's description, I sense a spark of town here.

Bringing out the Roy I LIKE THIS GAME ALREADY
VOTE: Kaede
Srs vote
Pedit: Ew.

I'm not quite sure what I should be Making this out to be.

Oh, is that a thing with GiF games?
I am willing to reveal flavor as requested, but would like to hear opinions on whether it's actually helpful and on whether the other miller claim should be required to do the same (presumably yes on first question implies absolutely yes on 2nd but that's just my opinion).

Certainly not a rock-hard townread I can tell you that.

Trust other people? What is this blasphemy?

I'm beginning to understand why people would want to ram this lynch through.

I'm not getting the Wilky hate. Like at all. Why in the world would scum fakeclaim miller to 1v1 a useless powerrole. Everyone on that wagon gets -10 town cred.

What does seem possible to me is that Dave fakeclaims miller and then CC'd.

vote:Dave

While the read here is understandable enough, I am tempted to Nero my vision down to a tunnel and just keep calling the slot pun.

Maybe I'm reading myself into you but that's what it feels like to me.

The reason I feel pun bussed can also be seen in another telltale sign:

VC 1.07

Tchill13 (1):

verylazy

wilky (1):

Ramcius

MariaR (1):

Nero Cain

Ventriloquist (10):

Ouroboros, ManWithNoName, MariaR, Wraith, Alchemist21, Kaede Akamatsu, davesaz, Tchill13, wilky, Ankamius

ManWithNoName (1):

Ventriloquist

Wraith (1):

Impossibear

Impossibear (1):

Dunnstral

davesaz (1):

hebichan

verylazy (1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

There is literally no counterwagon to the pun lynch. None, whatsoever, even remotely. There isn't even so much as a single wagon with two votes on it. If pun did not bus, if there were no pun involved in this lynch, then why would this be the case? It is of course

possible

for the pun to simply have been scattered and lack coordination, especially if lacking daychat. (I have reached the part in the game where that question was asked, but not where it was answered.)

But that is literally the only possible alternative to pun bussing.

If you instead assume pun did bus, then which names are the most likely to have done so? I don't see what really looks like what can be considered a solid pun block on there. If there's not a solid pun block on the lynch, yet pun bussed, the implication from it would be that the pun bussing was someone whose position carried disproportionate strength.

This is why I stated what I did.

You spearheading the D1 lynch in the way I am hearing it described is one of the areas I would look. That doesn't make you pun; it simply means I am looking at you as a pun candidate.

The evidence I have points to this as a feasible conclusion.
It is not the only conclusion.
The pun could all be scattered in various names.
The pun could be in various positions on the wagon.
The pun could be in a bloc on the wagon.

Those are all alternative possibilities to the conclusion the pun bussing was someone whose bus held strength. They are also viable. If I said that from the end of day votecount the evidence hard pointed to the conclusion of pun bussing with it being a hard pusher, that would be a lie because the other options remain, currently neither proven or disproven.

I also maintain by setup speculation that this game should be power role heavy and that of the roles claimed thusfar, few are notably suspect. An opinion which does clash with Jingle's apparently.

However, I also hold no doubt the town is mostly on the right track. I believe there are some potential oversights that my insight has shed light on. I believe that there are a few incorrect assumptions going around and a few data points which people overlooked that I saw. That doesn't make me right, and it doesn't make them wrong. It does mean that I feel they should have a closer look at things, while I take a first look at those very same things.

It wouldn't surprise me if Wilky has done research and is relying on the miller claim because he realises the host has done this before, especially since he chose to highlight that it wasn't far fetched for there to be 2 millers again. As Alchemist said though, this is relying on some pretty niche assumptions so I'm not buying it just yet.

I'm pretty sure that any puppeteer can tell you why this particular pulling of the strings projects willky as town.

While many reads require little explanation (e.g. Ramicus),

I don't get how town Nero can get "oh 3 people claim neg utility so scum has to be fake claiming" without thinking if that's the case town has to have some great stuff or scum are underpowered etc etc.
Scum nero thinking that and using it as an agenda to push something makes a lot more sense though imo.

This is a genuine point I feel a particular need to emphasize. The riaR end of the post is what you're looking for; Nero's agenda matches what I'd expect from a pun player. The slot is now projectmatt, if I'm not mistaken.

The OMGUS is also uncharacteristic of a town Nero. He's usually the one

being

OMGUSed.

Though that's not perfect and things start to fall apart balance wise in role madness games like this

I've questioned whether to bring this up or not but ultimately I suppose I'll take the risk. Dunn is in the unclaimed pool, but if everyone was paying attention, y'stral should have noticed he accidentally slipped being a PR here. That is thus an additional PR in the pool of players holding PRs, and consequentially, further evidence this game is role-heavy.

two town millers.

Not "two millers", two "town millers". Noted.

VC 1.01

Ventriloquist (2):

davesaz, hebichan

Ouroboros (1):

Alchemist21

Nero Cain (1):

Impossibear

Tchill13 (1):

verylazy

Kaede Akamatsu (1):

Dunnstral

MariaR (1):

Ramcius

davesaz (1):

wilky

wilky (5):

Ouroboros,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

ManWithNoName

, MariaR, Ankamius

WOW. There is

DEFINITELY

scum in this group. Make this the short-list for D1 lynch or N1 investigations.

Since I've no intention to read the vast majority of D2, I would like to ask ETL if these stances still hold.

Clarify man with no name and Ventriloquist townreads please

I also read the whole thing and I hold interest in modern reads on Ouroboros and the Nero slot and if town why.

Yeah I could get on board with a Vent wagon too

Is it not possible Tchill has a jester role of some sort? Not suggesting an insta win but I don't see how his claim could be helpful to town otherwise.

It wouldn't surprise me if Wilky has done research and is relying on the miller claim because he realises the host has done this before, especially since he chose to highlight that it wasn't far fetched for there to be 2 millers again. As Alchemist said though, this is relying on some pretty niche assumptions so I'm not buying it just yet.

Very suspicious post

Almost forgot, might as well elaborate on why I find this post very suspicious, because why not

He uses some rather

absurd

leaps in logic in two separate cases to paint a narrative picture about these two players, deliberately ignoring Occam's Razor in favor of stirring up WIFOM.

What is more likely? That TChill is running a Jester gambit? Or that TChill is fakeclaiming? TChill's was by far the least believable claim so far, and the most awkward (considering Kaede is mod-confirmed). By bringing up some a longshot possiblity, Vent is indirectly mounting a soft defense of TChill.

Simultaneously, he attempts to cast suspicion on Wilky with a similarly absurd leap. What's more likely? That Wilky is claiming Miller truthfully in a game run by a mod who apparently has a habit of these kinds of setup quirks? Or that Wilky is deliberately playing off mod meta to mount a roundabout fakeclaim gambit, with a claim that is by its nature instantly considered suspect by default?

I don't like that whatsoever. And after we get the VC I might consider switching my vote right now.

I'm quite serious when I say this is a stronger push than anything I've seen from RC. It's like comparing a slam-dunk case to a bunch of shade. He's just so much more solid.

I don't like Ventrilo's attempt push me, i dlike Wraith's "5 scum, no faceclaim", we still have Tchill/Wilky situation, Realmen asking to be burned with the fire, hebi's sheeping is unsettling, Nero is awkwardly silent

Hm, i guess i try

VOTE: Nero

others at least are talking

Okay so I know I said I didn't need to shove this up on you, but really, you should see this. Naming all of those people, especially Ventriloquist, and then going elsewhere for no reason.

Actually, Maria can't be faking tracker, so keeping cards close to the chest is unimportant.

Sure, it is a given she can't be faking it. Telling the truth does not indicate her alignment is town though.

I claim in the hood with rc

I claim that 3750 is a flagrant punclaim.

VOTE: ProjectMatt
with Wraith flipping green, his Wraith defense at the end of the day looks like TMI and attempt to get town cred, he didn't tried save him, he just didn't wanted to be on ML wagon

You are not wrong.

I will vote whichever of MariaR/projectmatt has a larger wagon. If both have equal wagons, my vote defaults to MariaR.

By proxy, you may remember this is calling Kokichi town.

Summary
MariaR is in a neighborhood with Dunn and Ouroboros created by Ouroboros.
That neighborhood also controls a tracker among all of them, track target must be agreed to by majority.
If there's 1 or more scum in the hood the track will always yield "didn't visit" regardless.
MariaR claims to track matt and getting "didn't visit"
matt confirms this.
wilky claims no result and blames OTM for it.
OTM says he targeted dave.

Alternative theory tying these together. MariaR is pun, and thus, regardless of whom was tracked, the result would be "didn't visit". projectmatt was selected (Ouroboros wanted it and MariaR knowing it could create a false negative went along with this) to falsely clear him as regardless of whether he took an action or not it would always display as him having not taken one due to MariaR's alignment being pun. willky's action failed because MariaR's role provided immunity to the investigation. (Alternatively, projectmatt has a blocking role and targeted willky.)

willky, Dunnstral, and OnTheMark are all town; MariaR and projectmatt completely messed up the town's actions.

Furthermore, JUNGLE is town who made a mistake.

HAS COMMON INTERESTS:

Kaede Akamatsu
Wilky
Dunnstral
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle) (CAVEAT: Requires no serial killers as possible this game, which I believe from the wincon is the case)

HIGHLY LIKELY TOWN:

Ankamius
Alchemist21
hebichan/OnTheMark
verylazy/Kokichi Oma (CAVEAT: requires MariaR flipping pun)

LEFTOVERS:

Ramcius
davesaz

STRONG PUNREADS:

MariaR
Nero Cain/projectmatt

All of these are in my mind fairly self-explanatory, but I may need to unpack my process here a little so that everyone has a better understanding of these.

Why Jungle can't be 4th member? 3 man mafia makes no sense

The idea that JUNGLE is pun here who claimed the powers he did and deliberately sabotaged them is absolutely flagrantly ridiculous. It doesn't happen. I'm sure someone intent on lynching JUNGLE will try to strawman this by linking to some game with a pun player whose actions had a passing resemblance to this game.

Doesn't matter. JUNGLE does not take this path as pun. Additionally, JUNGLE targeted Ouroboros with the quest for today, as proven by the moderator.

If JUNGLE were pun trying to deliberately sabotage their actions, they would target a player that they knew would live, such that they could get town credit while still enacting a pro-scum agenda.

However, targeting the nightkill only serves to make JUNGLE look

worse

. At a time where people are already inclined to lynch JUNGLE.

To put it together. JUNGLE, if pun, knew that as a consequence of his actions, players going into today would be suspicious of him, due to Impossibear not being conftown as promised. If he were pun, he would need to take an action to alleviate this. He would need to take an action that would make people want to spare him for longer. Yet if he were pun, then he targeted Ouroboros knowing he was targeting the player that would die. This sets him up for a lynch.

Far more likely is that it was an honest mistake, and that he had no way of predicting Ouroboros would be the pun's nightkill.

Or who is 4th then?

This, I do not know for sure. Given your early content, it remains possible to be you. However, given my overall feelings combined with your interactions, I would be more inclined to say it is another leftover.

As there is only one other leftover, process of elimination would indicate to me that davesaz is pun.

First off:

Abilities:

• Bodyswap:
  At any point of the game, you may switch your role with your factional members by PMing the mod.

MOD: Say Player A started the game as the Factional Ability Swapper.
Say Player B started the game aligned with Player A and held the role of Hider.

Say Player A used the Factional Ability Swapper with Player B in the middle of D1.

If Player A was lynched on D1, what would they flip?
If Player B was lynched on D1, what would they flip?

I feel this is an important question which was neglected.

With that inquiry made,

HAS COMMON INTERESTS:

Kaede Akamatsu
Wilky
Dunnstral
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle) (CAVEAT: Requires no serial killers as possible this game, which I believe from the wincon is the case)

HIGHLY LIKELY TOWN:

Ankamius
Alchemist21
hebichan/OnTheMark
verylazy/Kokichi Oma (CAVEAT: requires MariaR flipping pun)

LEFTOVERS:

Ramcius
davesaz

STRONG PUNREADS:

MariaR
Nero Cain/projectmatt

All of these are in my mind fairly self-explanatory, but I may need to unpack my process here a little so that everyone has a better understanding of these.

I decided to unpack my process here after all. From the top down:

Kaede Akamatsu:

Even if Kaede hadn't popped the IC, I'd have Kaede in my townbloc because this is solidly Kaede's towngame; Akam see it clear as day. The IC was frankly an unnecessary redundancy. But with it, at least this read requires no further explanation.

wilky:

While many suspect wilky, few fingering wilky can give any real reasons as to why. The few who have presented their evidence have a process I find absolutely loony. I keep on seeing the suspicion thrown and the cases there and none of it matches what I have witnessed; there is a disconnect between the suspicion on the slot and what the slot has actually given.

Because my own read on wilky's contribution is that wilky's content has been insanely town-motivated. His reads may be less than optimal and his style of posting may be such that players have an innate bias to punreading him, but when you look past the surface level and actually dig into the process he has outlined, the truth shines through. Sure, he may not have the best of reads, but bad reads doesn't make a player of his caliber pun. If you take the time to look at

how

he got those reads, the process is one which is

incredibly

hard to fake, especially for a player who is both relatively new and reasonably unskilled.

Dunnstral:

If you have the extensive game history with him that I do, you can instantly tell this is solidly his towngame. Additionally, he is soft-cleared by MariaR. Regardless of MariaR's alignment, this result is something we can trust; if MariaR is town, the result is accurate and if MariaR is pun, the result is likely still not on a punbuddy, making him town no matter what.

One of these two metrics in of itself may not be enough to townbin him. If it were just a townread off of meta, the townread could be wrong; if it were just the result from Maria, it would be possible she was attempting to falsely clear her punbuddy (though I personally think that manifested in a different manner as I have indicated previously). However, both in tandem is enough to hard-lock him as town; this is a Dunn deal.

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE:

I explained this before, but perhaps I can simplify; calling Jungle pun is a violation of occam's razor when you take motivations into mind.
To start, let's establish a baseline.

• The motivation of a town player is to further the gamestate such that town can identify who is town/pun and coordinate to lynch and shut down pun.
  
• The motivation of a pun player is to further the gamestate such that pun are positioned to control the town. In a typical pun player, this can be subdivided into three motivations in this approximate strength:
  1. Survive as pun
     
  2. Protect punbuddies
     
  3. Control the town
     
  4. Shut the town down
  (That is not the strength they should be in, but it is the strength pun players play them in.)

Then, with these motivations in mind, examine REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE's actions.
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE claimed a role which, if specific conditions were fulfilled, would reveal the alignment of a player.
As town, the motivation of this is self-evident; further the gamestate to identify who is town/pun.
As pun, this requires it to be a move for towncred, as a subset of survivalism.

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE then failed to deliver on this promise.
As town, the motivation of this is self-evident; it was a human error.
As pun, this move would require REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE deliberately putting himself in harm's way (violating survivalism), remove his influence from the town (violating controlling the town), for the sake of not giving away a piece of information not likely to directly harm him (not contributing to protecting a punbuddy), which doesn't shut the town down as much as it denies them a service he had the ability to deny them simply by never using it/never claiming it.

If he were pun who intended to not give the service to the town, why not just neglect to claim it or even never use it?
By claiming it and failing to use it properly, he is placing himself in harm's way for no visible benefit.

This is furthered by his usage on Ouroboros.
If REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is town, the motivation for targeting Ouroboros is self-evident. Ouroboros is the same type of player as Impossibear; a competent hydra in a strong position to gamesolve, and REALMEN had no way of knowing Ouroboros would be the nightkill.

If REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is pun, the motivation for targeting Ouroboros requires giving up on surviving (as targeting the nightkill will garner further suspicion beyond the already-existing suspicion to come for the failure on Impossibear, setting himself up for the lynch), controlling the town, and protecting punbuddies for the sake of denying the town a service.

Yes, it is possible for REALMEN to be pun, but it requires navigating a labyrinth of justifications.

The simpler answer is he's town.

---

Impossibear:

I believe they hold a killing power and used it N1 on ManWithNoName. I believe they genuinely think (or thought at the very least) they were the N1 nightkill, saved by their bulletproof. Combining these two is the main source of the townread, but I can also cite strong potential for them gamesolving. However, upon unpacking my thoughts, I want to have them trade places with OnTheMark on my readslist. On the OTM side, you'll see why when I get there, but here for Impossibear, the reason for the degenerated read is that there are some potential red flags to them attempting to lead us astray. I still maintain they are more likely town than not, but it's not impossibear for them to be pun.

---

Ankamius:

This is a read based largely on me liking her thought process. The things she is doing look town. However, some element is absent which prevents me from locking her in as town. (What that element is, I do not know.) Additionally, separately from that, we're not synchronizing as well as I'd expect; I would anticipate her being my mius. This gives further hesitance, similar to my Impossibear feelings. All that said, she's still my strongest read I don't have as locktown.

Alchemist21:

My initial townread came from Ankamius's description of his play, which was one of the things I felt was dead on the mark in her analysis. Since then, I've had further exposure in the form of the first 20 pages of the game plus reading his content since I have replaced in; everything I've witnessed backs that initial assessment, with the tinders of a townread strongly present. Conclusion, strongly likely to be town, but not locktown.

OnTheMark:

I had OnTheMark as a hard townread because of a combination of his role (and play surrounding it) and general feeling around him indicating him to be town. I was kept from locktowning OnTheMark because my reasons were role and general feeling; there was no tangible reason I could point to, which was troubling enough that I wasn't willing to make that call at the time. I lacked hard evidence to prove it.

However, the process of unpacking my thoughts revealed one to me which I can lock onto. OnTheMark can now be locktowned because of OnTheMark's modus operandi as pun. If you assume wilky is town, then his failed action is hard, absolute proof of OnTheMark's innocence. This may seem counterintuitive; why does wilky as town with a failed action prove rather than condemn OnTheMark?

Because we are assuming that if wilky is town, his failure comes from pun. And if the source of his failure comes from pun, then OnTheMark would never abide by it in the first place. OnTheMark would never, EVER accept forcing a deliberate 1v1 with a player. He prefers subtle sabotage, not flagrantly blatant sabotage. If he sabotages a town action, he attempts to leave no trace of it, and being a claimed blocker with wilky's action failing is in no way, shape, or form subtle.

If OnTheMark were pun, he'd know wilky's failed action would create the 1v1. Yes, he may get wilky lynched by entering into that 1v1. Yet after having done so, he automatically earns himself a vig, and if he miraculously dodges the bullet, a lynch. That, not taking into account the possibility he

loses

the 1v1, getting lynched today, thus creating a player that otherwise would be a mislynch who is instead not only conftown but an investigative to boot.

As a result, OnTHeMark would adamantly, vehemently oppose any plan which would create the 1v1. I can cite past games if need be, but he himself any many others should be able to vouch for this description as accurate; avoiding giving the town confscum/conftown in the form of him/wilky.

Since wilky's action did fail, and I do think wilky to be town, you can thus conclude OnTheMark is by proxy also town, and as a result earns Impossibear's spot in my locktown.

Kokichi Oma:

Instead of describing what I like first, I'll start by raising why I hesitate to call him town. I was incredibly suspicious of his predecessor, and he is a skilled enough pun player to fool even those that claim they can read him, causing them to falsely clear him as town. In spite of those factors, I actually

do

hold some faith in Kaede's townread there. Additionally, I don't believe Kokichi-Maria is pun theater.

What I DO believe is that Kokichi Oma can genuinely read MariaR. I also don't believe he is lying about the read as town. Furthermore, I feel he wouldn't falsely punread her if he were pun. If he were pun, I strongly believe his strategy would be to hard-defend her, to white knight her if need be, and he is not doing that here, which is promising.

Ramicus:

I've basically explained this read already, but in short, while I haven't liked much of his content, I do like some of his more recent contributions and I feel like his interactions are not viable as pun bussing. That head-to-head is simply suicidal and I don't buy it.

davesaz:

When I started reading, I had foreknowledge that davesaz's miller claim was apparently retracted/changed into 'some negative utility' at a later point. This would explain his rather dodgy early actions and play, so I was willing to write it off as null. I would say that I would normally be heavily inclined to punread him otherwise. There is literally nothing town about him, but if I'm honest, the most daving thing is simply POE;

someone

has to be the fourth and I think he's the best candidate. Also, there is the chance he was in fact blocked N1.

MariaR:

My punread here is four-fold: Dodgy, sketchy play; setup speculation plus night action results; personal experience with her meta; trusting in Kokichi Oma's personal meta experience. Each of these, I can explain in detail.

MariaR is basically actively lurking through this game; she is frequently and consistently failing to provide pertinent game content and I can cite many instances including prod dodges which are absent in other games she is a player in. There's a bunch of posts I can quote but this is perhaps best done in a followthrough post as compiling the entire list here would make this post 20 times longer.

Setup speculation indicates we should have a pun in the investigative claims. We have MariaR's, we have the proven track from Ouroboros, we have wilky's delayed cop, we have Kaede's IC as conftown, we have Jungle's claimed ability to make another player's alignment revealed (even if he messed up on making it work), and in that pool you can reasonably expect there to be a pun.

It wasn't Ouroboros.
It's not Kaede.
I have townreads on wilky and Jungle.
Ergo, MariaR's role is likely a truthful investigative, just belonging to pun.

This is magnified by the outcome of events. Ouroboros just so happened to recruit MariaR at apparently the earliest opportunity. And then Ouroboros just so happened to die almost immediately after that. I feel the two events are in fact linked together. Yes, Ouroboros had other reasons to die, but I think that role contributed to it because pun knew what their role was.

My own experience with MariaR indicates this is far more likely to be her pungame than her towngame.

And then when you throw in that Kokichi Oma is perhaps the player on site I would most trust to be able to read her and he says she's pun, then I really think we should Maki this wagon happen sooner rather than later.

projectmatt:

I've been a close associate of Nero Cain's since before most of the players in this game even joined mafiascum. Over the years, I have gotten to know his play intimately. He can be aptly described as a ruder, more competent, more arrogant version of Creature.

By which, I mean, regardless of his alignment, he's going to be an ass, who presents a holier-than-thou attitude. Regardless of his alignment, his charisma is dismal. However, at his base, the same core tell always works on him regardless; when he is town, he is incredibly active to the point of being almost a spam poster, providing reads which are strong, confident, and accurate. He is in your face and always has something to say with what he says being game content rather than fluff.

When he is pun, he is a lurker. Mostly just lurking, since he does produce actual content when around (just at a far more infrequent rate), but he does a fair share of active lurking as well. I Cain tell you, having known him for the years that I have, this is squarely in the latter category. He was doing almost nothing the entire time he was around. If he were town, he'd have been all over Ventriloquist as well. His list of sins is great, and I'm not sure I can even properly describe all of them because as such a long-time associate these are things I just know rather than needing to explain to others.

I haven't gotten the chance to really read projectmatt content since then, but I wouldn't need to in order to conclude pun.

That having been said, the little content I have seen indicates pun as well. For instance, the Wraith defense at day end

did

seem like TMI, knowing he was going to flip town and hoping to earn town credit from not being on the lynch wagon.

Pun, that question was asked in some form already. The role they would flip is the one they had at the time of their death.

Well nobody told ME that the question had been asked.

From that we can safely assume either the role swap had already happened (allowing pun to preserve their roles) or that Ventriloquist simply started with it and the pun valued their roles enough to let him flip with it.

It may be worth looking over Ventrilioquist's posts to see if there is any role breadcrumbs. If there are breadcrumbs present, we would be able to identify the holder of the role being breadcrumbed as pun.

Nero was lurky as scum in Necromancer too.

As a thought experiment. Let me demonstrate to you Nero Cain's meta.
This is a list of every Large Theme Nero Cain has posted in.

This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. While not two pages, that game suffered from numerous hastened deaths; having as many posts as he does there is still impressively large.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. NINE pages. (Caveat: everyone that game had more posts than normal.)
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages, and that's only from two gamedays.
This is just about one of the shortest towngames you'll find from Nero Cain.
This is Nero Cain's more typical iso once more as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Short for him, I will admit.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as a lategame replacement. Keep the timing of his replacement in mind for the amount of volume he produced.
As far as I can tell, Nero Cain was town here. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Shorter than most, but still two pages.
I'm excluding this game as Nero Cain replaced in late during the day and was killed that very same night, unless anyone has objections. If you do object and wish to count it as valid, then may I continue to point out what is more typical?
Such as this Nero Cain iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages. And he only had one day phase to produce it, as he died N1.
Considering the length of the game, this is fairly short, but Nero Cain's iso as town still managed the feat.
I do confess another shorter iso would be this one as town.
I should technically mention this iso here as well is short, but for good reason; note the V/LA which led to him being replaced. To offset that,
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Four pages.
This is a shorter Nero Cain iso as town. It is shorter because they died N1, yet still managed over a hundred posts.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
I am fairly certain Nero Cain is Gollum and thus this is his iso as town. Shorter at two pages, but still broke the barrier.
If Nero Cain is Gollum, This is his iso as town. Two pages, and he died N1 no less.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages, so a bit short given the duration he was alive.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages, so a bit short given the duration he was alive.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Four pages.

This is Nero Cain's iso as pun.
This is Nero Cain's iso as pun. Multiball, to boot. Yet he still didn't post much comparatively speaking.
This is Nero Cain as pun doing respectably well. And it spanned the entire game (he was the last pun alive).
This is a little bit longer an iso from Nero Cain as pun yet he still didn't breach the two-page barrier.
This is the one and only example of Nero Cain breaching the barrier as pun I can find. If I had to suspect, multiball may play a part.
This is Nero Cain as pun across multiple day phases with a hydra partner still failing to breach the barrier.
This is Nero Cain as the last surviving pun coming close but still failing.
This is Nero Cain's iso as pun.
Nero Cain did breach the barrier in this game as pun, but it is noteworthy that game was multiball which I again suspect played a part.
This is Nero Cain's iso as pun.
So this game featured cultafia and thus I'm not sure if he started as town or not, and he did request replacement, but all the same I thought I would mention this Nero Cain iso as pun.

Not mentioned because I know he was in the game as a hydra but I don't know what his account name was: this game.

That is five years' worth of meta on Nero Cain for Large Themes.

Five years

, the last five years, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2013 (which I didn't go back to the beginning of the year on, just up until the beginning of March 2013).

Can Nero Cain's activity tell in of itself guarantee his alignment? No, it cannot; there are outliers as town where he produced less content and outliers as pun where he produced more. But it is one of the most solid tells you can have on site. If you doubt the tell, try checking out the towngames I am linking to and compare them to the pungames I am linking to.

This is thoroughly his punplay.

And as projectmatt inherited the slot, he is pun.

davesaz:

When I started reading, I had foreknowledge that davesaz's miller claim was

apparently retracted/changed into 'some negative utility'

at a later point.

The underlined is incorrect.
I stated that I'm miller. At a later point I said that my "ability" section had flavor in it. There has never been a retraction / change about the role -- it's straight Commonwealth miller with nothing else, and nothing but the flavor in the ability section.

Oh, that makes a difference then. I was under the impression from the list of claims that it had changed later in the game during a section I hadn't read.

With the knowledge it hasn't, you become a reasonably solid punread. Not as solid as MariaR and projectmatt (the Strong Punread section), but enough to have your own special category of "Punread".

Though I'm tempted to lump you in with them for this.

Punreader's analysis assumes a: that scum!Jungle wouldn't gambit, b: that town would inevitably lynch scum!Jungle after these events making it a low chance of success.

Yes, and those are safe assumptions to make as assuming those is working with occam's razor whereas assuming JUNGLE gambits as pun and that the town wouldn't inevitably lynch a pun JUNGLE is a violation of occam's razor.

I don't know if a gambit is likely or unlikely, I just know it can't be ruled out.

Nothing "can be ruled out". There is (almost) nothing which is impossible in a game. (Almost) everything CAN happen.

The job of a town player is to determine

which things most likely

did

happen

.

Gambiting is something which could have happened.
It is not something that is likely to have happened.

Ignoring the probability (rather, lack thereof) of it happening in favor of embracing the possibility it happened is thoroughly a pro-pun agenda.

The PLAN might have been for Impossibear to die, and scum!Jungle is then functionally a loud fruit vendor at very little risk.

When did JUNGLE claim the power? Was it on D1? This is something I don't know.

So feel free to correct me here, if JUNGLE announced his power on D1.

If JUNGLE didn't claim the power until D2, then this scenario you are outlining is impossible. The plan going awry? Well then JUNGLE simply has no need to claim the action.

Not claiming it loses the possibility of using it at all.

Yes, and if the power is pro-town and JUNGLE is pun...why is this a bad thing for the pun?

Having a competent mod design a quest with that degree of complexity and then allowing it to fail on a technicality when the intent was clear stretches credibility a little.

Counterpoint: this is a game moderated by GuyInFreezer. I know his modding well enough to know this is

precisely

the sort of stunt he would pull.

I suppose a mod could be that hardcore and town!Jungle could make that mistake, but it seems very unlikely.

What seems unlikely to me is you trying to find every possible reason to call JUNGLE pun ignoring all the reasons why he is likely town.

Moving on to the question of whether town would inevitably punish scum!Jungle with a lynch -- it seems that WIFOM might be king here and we might not do so simply on the "mistake".

Oh? And where do you draw the line on WIFOM? Everything could be WIFOM. So what WIFOM is 'valid' to you, and what WIFOM is 'invalid' to you? You can call anything WIFOM and I can demonstrate this quite easily if you doubt me. So what makes the possibility here be WIFOM to you worth invoking that name?

But that is very short sighted, to excuse it as human error and not a possible gambit.

No, that is called following occam's razor with a dosage of hanlon's razor:
Not attributing to malice what can best be explained far more simply with stupidity.
The simple answer is stupidity.
The complex answer requiring contrived justifications is malice based on some possible gambit.

If we look at Jungle

outside the quest info

, what would the read be?

If we look at JUNGLE outside of the quest info, the read would be solidly nulltown; there is nothing indicating pun and yet minor signs indicating town.

I feel perhaps my snark weakens the strength of my point. So to reiterate,

If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

What differentiates these two, davesaz?

You are saying to lynch Jungle on the possibility his role may damage us; you are willing to sacrifice the utility of his ability.

You are saying to not lynch Maria on the possibility her role may help us; you are not willing to sacrifice the utility of her ability.

Care to offer an explanation?

@Kaede -- quote anything from Jungle that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously town. Anything that is making the slightest effort to solve the game.

Innocent until proven guilty; the burden of proof is on the accuser.

@dave: quote anything from JUNGLE that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously pun. Anything that is making the slightest effort to manipulate the town.

>when your 2 sr's are the biggest wagon
it's Christmas time to see who I can lynch first

And yet you vote neither.

Town OTM and town you is possible if we make the additional assumption of Scum JK/Busdriver.

Or even redirector. I concluded these three roles were possible already, and I maintain that projectmatt is the most likely holder of them.

There is no scum motivation to giving the vig the Party Starter if the vig is hard townreading you (we were, fairly obviously). There is no scum motivation in NOT giving the strong willed modifier to your partner if there is a town RB. OTM claimed yesterday. The paranoia wrt to OTM makes perfect sense from someone who isn't nuts in the exact same way as me

This is enough to move Alchemist into my locktown pile, as I buy this.

AND because of RC's setup spec D2.

For the record, it was the spec which prompted me to ask the question to the mod about the ability swapper. The reason I asked was because I don't really agree with the setup speculation; if you wish to townread me, then utilizing other reasoning is for the best.

With that said, I'm going to drop an action plan for Maria shortly to hopefully turn her and her neighbor into a mason pair, so it's a bad lynch today anyway.

I maintain that any plan which relies on her being town is a bad plan, but acknowledge we can have better lynches and that the plan will at least help demonstrate her alignment when she refuses to cooperate.

I don't think you should telegraph your hide tonight because: There's probably a busdriver

I don't see why. The mod told me my Hide is equal to a Commute in NAR. This means I always hide behind my intended target. Now, if pun want to shoot my target when I'm hiding behind players that should be lynched, power to them. If town wants to shoot my target when I'm hiding behind players that should be lynched, then they would be taking that shot anyway.

Pun, do you have experience with projectmatt?

Enough to say he is one of the most underrated pun players on the site. He has an elite pungame which consistently performs quite well, yet almost nobody seems to be aware of this. I would attribute it at least in part to not being able to strongly differentiate between his towngame and his pungame.

His pungame is almost identical to his towngame in my experience, making it difficult to distinguish between the two. Yet he is an incredibly

good

town player, which translates into extreme hesitance to lynch him when he is pun because he is a master of making it look like he is a good town player when he is pun.

This doesn't mean it is impossible to read him, of course. I acknowledge I personally hold little ability to tell the difference and that he is incredibly competent as either alignment. This is one of the main reasons why I am adamant you not trust him and ignore that he replaced Nero Cain. Nero had strong evidence which suggested overwhelmingly he was far more likely to be pun than town, and projectmatt regardless of his alignment was going to make people like him because

that's just what he does

.

Pun, do you have experience with projectmatt?

Actually, can you go more into your Alchemist read specifically?

Not particularly, no. Aside from how the evidence Impossibear gives does move him into town, I have been viewing his actions and seen a player who I can see the town thought process behind his actions.

I may not agree with what Alchemist21 has been doing (similar to wilky), but I can still understand what he is doing, how he got to where he is, and trace the thought process. It demonstrates an incredibly visible, easy-to-read narrative, one which is not likely to come from a pun player. He felt highly transparent, but with just enough opaque that it wasn't out of the question altogether for him to be pun.

Knowing what his role is removes that opaqueness altogether and now I feel like I can see the full picture of his process, start to finish, thus the read upgrade.

Since there have been changes to my reads, an update:

HAS COMMON INTERESTS:

Kaede Akamatsu
Wilky
hebichan/OnTheMark
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

HIGHLY LIKELY TOWN:

Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle) (may deserve to be higher again)
Ankamius
verylazy/Kokichi Oma

LEFTOVER:

Ramcius

STRONG PUNREADS:

davesaz
MariaR
Nero Cain/projectmatt

Absolutely none of those help in any way, do they?

Have you actually been

reading

literally any of my posts?

[Punreader]

Words are not the same as helping.

Right so apparently detailed

exact reads

on

every player in the game

and outlining the process by which I got those reads and the strength of them including

writing a case for players who're pun

doesn't qualify as helping. Nor does as a side-project (which is notably exactly that) entering into setup speculation to augment reads.

I ask again.

Have you actually been

reading

my posts? Because you sure aren't acting like it.

Partner is dave k choo choo I'm busy hurry up

The hilarious part is, she can say this truthfully in more than one way.

[Punreader]

Yes, I am. I find them to be completely bloated and 90% of what you say can be boiled down to a few sentences, none of which “help” your slot

If this is your stance on my content, then, you should be able to paraphrase my contributions to the game fairly easily and lay out precisely why none of them are helpful.

Go ahead, I challenge you to do exactly that. Back your words up and SHOW that I have "so little" content and that "none of it helps".

Your activity seems to coincidentally spike when certain people are talked about and I find that no coincidence.

I'm only going to say this once.
That accusation has absolutely

ZERO

place it belongs in this, or ANY, game.
If you think otherwise?

Fuck off.

[Punreader]

Reiterating this is bullshit.

If this is bullshit, you should be able to show WHY it is.

[Punreader]

Spoiler: OnTheMark

Except you are not voting a busser, and are not pushing a busser

Perhaps you should check the wagon composition compared to my reads again.

Ventriloquist (10):

Ouroboros,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR (Investigative)

, Wraith, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

davesaz (negative utility)

, Tchill13, wilky (Miller Slow Cop), Ankamius

STRONG PUNREADS:

davesaz
MariaR

Nero Cain/projectmatt

It is true that I am not

voting

a pun busser. But I have reasons not to. Namely, I only have one vote; they don't have wagons; Impossibear has a plan which will help prove them to contain pun.

and are not hypothesizing potential bus teams that did this

I have been quite consistent in calling MariaR a possible candidate for pun, a read strengthened into fullblown punread. I had given davesaz a minor pass off of a misunderstanding, which I rescinded once it was clarified and lumped him in as well.

You can also at least partially chalk this up to my readthrough of D1 having been so abruptly interrupted by the rush to mislynch Wraith, as I indicated I was only half-way finished with my readthrough of the day and I've yet to finish it. I haven't actually

seen

most of the votes on Ventriloquist in context. D2's sudden end interrupted this. I'm quite confident that had I seen the votes, I would be rather able to demonstrate conclusively why they were pun bus-votes.

You are treating me as if I have read the game.

I have not.

I have read a small fraction of the game. And at the time of the quotes you are using? I had read

none

of the game.

If you expect me to have a fully formed opinion on players when

I replaced in essentially blind

. You are absolutely insane.

Another dodge of giving reads or anything “concrete” except to buddy up with Ank.

Again.

I had not, and STILL have not, read the game.

At the time of the post indicated, do you know how much of the game I had read? At the time of 3253, I had read...
3060 - 3068 (6 posts), and 3247 - 3252 (5 posts, + 6 posts = 11 posts), plus at Ankamius's request, 3243. I had read

12 posts in the entire game thread

.

Tell me.

If you were in my shoes.

Having read literally TWELVE posts.

What kind of content would

YOU

be able to deliver? Can you honestly say you could do any better than I was doing?

I think not.

This is another stall and “bear with me post” that punreader NEVER revisits.

Apparently, you missed the pun. I was making a joke.

Furthermore, I

did

revisit it.
Multiple times, in fact.

The post I stated there is one of the foundations of my MariaR punread, something I already laid out and which you should have perfect awareness of (IN THIS VERY POST YOU ARE QUOTING WHERE I USE 3261 LATER IN 4167) if you had actually read my later content. My content builds off of prior content I've posted. Just because I don't always quote the prior content doesn't mean it no longer applies to my current additions to it.

You are saying I didn't follow through.

I am saying you didn't read my posts

because

I did

, and so blatantly it is impossible to miss. How could you not see that I pushed MariaR, with this?

Pun busser D1? MariaR and davesaz, my strong punreads.
One of the investigatives is pun? MariaR, a claimed investigative.

These are crystal clear in my content.

Now you think there is a scum in a cluster yet never push there and now are not willing to lynch them.

My stances were quite clear. 1 pun in the claimed roles, 2 pun in the unclaimed players. Overnight, my stance on the two numbers has reversed (2 pun in the claimed roles, 1 pun in the unclaimed players), but the basic reasoning and process I outlined has never changed.

My lynch pool on D2 was MariaR(role)/projectmatt(not claimed role)/Ouroboros(not claimed role)/Ramicus(not claimed role).
Given there is an expectation of 3 pun in the game, that is

precisely

the right number to have. (Well, one more than the right number, but the right zone.)

Given the fact

I was still a replacement having read almost nothing

, having a lynchpool narrowed down to four names at that point is as good as could be gotten. And for the most part, aside from Ouroboros, my pool remains fairly solid, with new evidence corroborating my prior conclusions.

You also have yet another undelivered promise of Wraith/Alchemist21 content.

Well maybe I would have given content on Wraith

if he hadn't been lynched

while I was still catching up

and was V/LA

.
As for Alchemist21, once more, I DID give the content, something you seem to have forgotten about.

What’s even more sketchy is you’d be willing to lynch Ramcius without reading and without scumreading him and won’t lynch the people you do scumread.

That's called being realistic. I'll lynch a null-read. Why wouldn't I? They're null, I have no read on them, I wouldn't expect them to flip pun sure but that also means I wouldn't expect them to flip town, either.

I wasn't going to get an Ouroboros lynch, in spite of scumreading them. I wasn't quite comfortable yet pushing a MariaR lynch in spite of thinking she may be pun. I was

quite

willing to lynch projectmatt, and I NEVER said anything otherwise, contrary to what you seem to be saying. I was PERFECTLY WILLING to lynch my punread there. I just never got the chance.

This again is more hedging bets.

No, that was RadiantCowbells trying to use the Loaded Question fallacy on me and me recognizing he was doing that, not being able to remember the exact term, and defending against it appropriately. RadiantCowbells asked a question which he was trying to present as a "yes or no" question, e.g. "When did you stop beating your wife?" But the actual answer was neither yes or no; the answer was something different altogether.

I explained my stance as clearly as I could.

Here again you take careful pause to say it is ‘uncertain’ and summarizes into “I haven’t read but I will lynch Project Matt or RCdra

Groundbreaking idea.
Did this ever occur to you?
Perhaps.
Just maybe.

The reason I am uncertain is

because I haven't read

?
And yet in SPITE of not having read, I was still attempting to take stances?

And you’re clearly wrong here.

---

No.No.no

These are not objective stances, now, are they?

Wilky FMPOV is lying. My action comes first in NAR. This means it cannot be redirected. As of making this post you would have known Wilky is lying. What pisses me off is that Wilky is Guilty won’t be lynched. Jungle is guilty won’t be lynched. Dave should have been lynched yesterday and wasn’t and you supposedly being good at mechanics make up a town slip that just isn’t there and is unsupported

The "wilky is lying" has been disproven; see also my analysis demonstrating quite plausible ways this could have happened, along with Impossibear's own comments on the subject. Furthermore,

I back the davesaz lynch up

.

And the slip IS there. wilky is fairly new to the site, unless you can demonstrate evidence to the contrary.
From this, you can conclude wilky does not have experience with theme games, unless you can demonstrate evidence to the contrary.
If you assume wilky lacks experience with theme games, stating that he doesn't believe the mod gives out safeclaims is a townslip because only a pun player or an experienced player would know that the mod would give them out.

Again no depth.

False. The quote

is

the depth. It's your fault for never asking what I found in 37 to be suspect, not mine.

so you can buddy me? Why would you be tempted? Why do you have to plan strategically what you would do?

This is answered by

having paid attention

when

I laid out my

extensive Nero Cain history

. The answer lies within my posts later, and here was the earliest hint of it.

I was stating, quite simply, that as a long-time associate of Nero Cain, I knew his content to be squarely within his pun meta. I did so by making a pun (that is, MY GIMMICK), but while I conveyed it as a joke, the meaning carried was quite serious. The read was, instantly, "very likely to be a pun player, albeit not guaranteed".

This is the billionth+1 you avoid taking a hard stance or using your theories in your posts.

This is the billionth+1 time you've ignored that I HAVE taken hard stances and HAVE used my theories, with everything I've said building upon what I said before.

Again.
I asked if you read my posts.

I did not ask that lightly.

Because I have been providing, constantly, nonstop, my contribution, while

still dealing with a limitation

of not having read most of the game.

Here you just go “meh whatever”

There is absolutely no way to read either 3296 or 3298 as "meh whatever" as there is absolutely no content even remotely conveying that meaning.

and then emphasize project Matt scum trying to get MariaR to do your dirty work. Which is funny as you haven’t read yet? Or have you?

Not having read the game thread does not preclude me from quoting content AS I am reading the game thread to pick up on the better points. What, you expect me to read in total silence? You expect me to not bring up good points from the past, just because I'm not caught up? A good point is a good point, regardless of the author or the time.

Why the hell would you EVER out this as town?

Hey so remember how you said I wasn't building on my points? Remember how you said that I didn't do anything with my analysis of the roles?

...This was me

doing something with my analysis of the roles

. This was me

building on my already existing point

. This was me, using

what was already established

. As for why? Because there is literally no harm. In a game where almost every player is a power role, stating that Dunnstral is one gives the pun nothing they don't already know. They already know that the game's virtually role madness. They already know that no matter who they target they will target a PR. They already knew if they caught the same slip that I did that Dunnstral had slipped PR. I told them nothing.

What I DID do was tell the town information that was relevant and pertinent to my earlier point.

You’re not using whether this game is roleheavy or not to find the people you suspect to be truthtelling. You’re pushing the unclaimed

Again, this is why I asked if you actually READ my posts.

I pushed the unclaimed, yes. This I did. But did you miss the part where I

laid out why I felt pun were in the unclaimed

? Did you miss the part where I laid out why the game being almost role madness meant that the large number of claims wasn't suspect and that in fact it was the large number of UNCLAIMED which was suspect?

Since you have given up the intention of reading

Apparently you lack reading comprehension.

Since I've no intention to read the vast majority

of D2

I was reading DAY ONE. I never said I had given up on reading. That's, again.

Why I question if you actually READ my posts.

You keep on stating things which indicate you didn't read because these things are literally right in front of you.

*shakes head* You seem like a competent player yet are putting stock in a scum who was clearly going down day one. That is crap. This entire post is again I MIGHT do something. You’re asking more questions than you’re attempting to answer and expecting others to do it for you

I don't know what you were reading, but it sure as hell wasn't my post. Because HAD you read my post, you would have seen I was calling Wraith town for a solid, slam-dunk case against Ventriloquist; a case better than the alleged leader of the lynch Ouroboros's case.

I felt that Ouroboros's case on Ventriloquist was possibly pun bussing; him KNOWING Ventriloquist was pun and then making points which were based upon insider info (and thus, looking weaker to an outsider). In contrast, Wraith's post delivered a solid case I felt was STRONGLY indicative of a position formed from genuinely having caught pun.

This was rather explicit.

So whatever you're reading, it sure isn't what I wrote.

Already went over this is bullshit and you’re copying other users here

Oh really? I'm copying others? Do quote where, I'm quite interested to see where their content predates mine because I'm quite certain I was the first one to make this point and that others copied ME.

Hahahahahahahahabahahaha daychat is a thing.

"But this can be explained by daychat!" sounds an awful lot like "but this could be WIFOM" to me, unless you can explain the difference. "But, Daychat!" is not a magical answer to everything, just like "But, WIFOM!" isn't a magical answer to everything.

Again you go out of your way to defend wilky yet there is zero clue who you scumread or what you’re doing

Oh so apparently all the times where I explain my suspicion on Ramicus, Ouroboros, MariaR, projectmatt, and davesaz don't count.

OR AS PUN JUNGLE EXPECTED ETL to DIE

Apparently you didn't read, again why I asked if you actually read my posts, where I laid out precisely why that narrative doesn't actually work out.

Either you read or you didn’t. Which is it?

It's both! I have read the content since I replaced in; every post since 3247 and some here and there even before then.

I have read the first twenty pages of the game.

I have not read any of the content from 500 to about 3050. That is approximately 2,500 posts of the game, 100 pages, which I have not read.

You are also ignoring how it is rather unambiguous the timeline. At the beginning, where I had not read the game, I had not read the game. I was directed to read all of D1, but skip D2. I then proceeded to

quote content from D1

; the reasonable inference from this would be that was the point in the game where I read the first 20 pages. I was then hit with a V/LA, and day ended...thus, ending my D1 readthrough, half-finished, where it remains.

I still have that tab open and would screenshot it if such things weren't highly in violation of site rules.

you’re clearly talking about my scum meta to buddy me

And you're clearly biasing your narrative to fit your read rather than thinking about my viewpoint from a more objective standpoint. But let's not split hairs.

Yeah no. This is bad MariaR is town

Oh? And who's the one not giving reasons now?

Your reads are bad

Not objective. If anything, it's an objectively wrong statement, too, given the players who're supporting me.

90% of your posts are stall posts.

Which might have to do with

not having read the game,

yet still wanting to contribute something in spite of not having read the game

.

You refuse to correct people on bad mechanics.

Except I did EXACTLY this when I told Impossibear their mechanics talk was wrong. Again, reason why I asked if you had read my posts.

NO AGAIN THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE! Top of NAR means I cannot be redirected! My action completely resolved before a redirectors. The only thing is if scum copy my action entirely or have some sort of cloner and could do as they wished. My action CANNOT be bus driven redirected or otherwise altered..

I'm putting this one outside the spoiler because it is the most important.

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of NAR if you think you are immune just because you are on top.

Your roleblock is only immune to a redirect/busdrive if

your target is the redirector/busdriver

.

If your action doesn't modify the redirector's action, but the redirector's action modifies yours, then it doesn't matter if you're higher; the redirector still modifies your action.

You can think of this as roleblocker vs. cop.

Roleblocker is higher in action resolution, but a cop can still investigate a roleblocker...unless the roleblocker is blocking the cop.
Alternatively, think of killers.
Roleblocker is higher than a killing action, but, say, a vig can still vig a roleblocker...unless the roleblocker blocks the vig.
If a roleblocker blocks someone, and a vig kills the roleblocker, the vig's kill still kills the roleblocker unless the roleblocker blocked the vig.

Same basic principle applies here. It doesn't matter that you're higher. If you didn't roleblock the redirector role, the redirector can redirect you.

Ask Jingle if you don't believe me.
Ask Ankamius if you don't believe Jingle.
Ask the mod if you don't believe all of us.

But I am right on this because I know how NAR works and you, apparently, don't. I can, and will, quote the wiki page on Natural Action Resolution's relevant sections to show this if need be.

[Punreader]

Another way of thinking about it.
Your roleblock is above even strongman in NAR?
That doesn't stop the strongman from making a kill

unless you roleblock the strongman

.

This is self-evident.

But let's pull up the quotes.

The Golden Rule
Apply actions which modify other actions before the actions they modify.

If your roleblock doesn't roleblock the redirector,

your roleblock does not modify the redirector, and thus, your action is not applied first.

If the redirector modifies your action,

the redirector modifies your action, and thus, is applied first.

FROM THAT SAME PAGE:

Paradox and Ambiguity
Sometimes the actions that might affect each other form a loop, so that there's no action to pick in step 1. In other cases, the order of two actions matters but it isn't clear that one affects the other.

An example of an action loop:

Player 1 blocks Player 2.
Player 2 redirects Player 1 onto player 3.
In this case, both actions affect each other; player 2's action changes the target of player 1's, while player 1 prevent player 2 from performing an action.

Note that this loop would not occur if either of the players had chosen different targets. If player 2 had targeted someone else, then the roleblock is not affected by any other actions, and player 2 will just be blocked outright. If player 1 had targeted someone else, then the redirect is not affected by any other actions, so player 1 will end up blocking player 2's target.

This is the relevant part.

You being above everything

only applies if there is an action loop

. If you roleblock the redirector, you win; your roleblock trumps the redirect.
But if your roleblock

doesn't

block the redirector, but

the redirector redirects your roleblock

, then the redirector's action goes through unimpeded.

I know my mechanics; this is now Natural Action Resolution works.

[Punreader]

Also from

Do not use this list unless actions are actually in conflict; that is, that both affect each other.

If only one of the actions affects another, resolve that one first,

regardless of the positions on the list

.

A redirector role of ANY type can still affect you, OnTheMark, UNLESS the redirector role is

your

target.

Jingle can vouch for me.
Ankamius can vouch for me.
RadiantCowbells would vouch for me.
Let's see...any other long-time players/moderators of note who use/know this system inside and out?
Ah. Kaede Akamatsu.

OUR IC THIS GAME.

Can vouch for me.

I know this is how Natural Action Resolution works because I am a moderator on mafiascum who makes use of Natural Action Resolution for this type of situation frequently.

And if you doubt the words of everyone.

You can just ask the mod.

Because GuyInFreezer, as much as he may not know about roles (for instance that hiders are now not-weak by default), knows enough about game mechanics to run his game using this system.

[Punreader]

I cannot be busdriven redirected or otherwise tampered with.
My action ends before a redirectors begins.
If Wilky is town which I highly highly doubt, the source cannot in any way shape or form be me.

This is fair. If the moderator specified this to you, then I shall not argue it.

That does not make wilky's claimed failure a 1v1 with you.
wilky can fail,

without your action involved

, because:

• Of targeting a player who was ascetic
  
• Of targeting a player that was rolestopped
  
• Of targeting a player who commuted (or technically, hid, though via me we know that to not be the case)
  
• Of being redirected to any of the above
  
• Of redirection automatically causing his action to fail
  
• Of redirection variant roles (e.g. busdriver, nexus, deflector) automatically causing his action to fail
  
• Of another roleblocking role (e.g. jailkeeper, alien) causing his action to fail

And this is likely an incomplete list.

There are no less than seven potential ways wilky's action, WITHOUT YOUR ACTION BEING INVOLVED AT ALL, could have failed.

So automatically concluding that wilky's claimed failure is a 1v1 with your action is a mistake.

[Punreader]

Because the odds of that are pretty nil

Why? wilky claimed on D1. That gives pun two whole nights to cause his action to fail. If wilky's action were unknown, you'd have a better argument, but everyone knew about it from the onset, and thus, everyone had a way to counter it as pun.

You blocked davesaz, which while an objectively good block is not a block likely to be on a pun power role that can cause wilky's action to fail.

[Punreader]

Ok, this I want to see. Specifically what points were raised that Dave was unable to refute and what flaws were present? I will admit that I have skimmed a lot the last week.

davesaz:

When I started reading, I had foreknowledge that davesaz's miller claim was

apparently retracted/changed into 'some negative utility'

at a later point.

The underlined is incorrect.
I stated that I'm miller. At a later point I said that my "ability" section had flavor in it. There has never been a retraction / change about the role -- it's straight Commonwealth miller with nothing else, and nothing but the flavor in the ability section.

Oh, that makes a difference then. I was under the impression from the list of claims that it had changed later in the game during a section I hadn't read.

With the knowledge it hasn't, you become a reasonably solid punread. Not as solid as MariaR and projectmatt (the Strong Punread section), but enough to have your own special category of "Punread".

Though I'm tempted to lump you in with them for this.

Punreader's analysis assumes a: that scum!Jungle wouldn't gambit, b: that town would inevitably lynch scum!Jungle after these events making it a low chance of success.

Yes, and those are safe assumptions to make as assuming those is working with occam's razor whereas assuming JUNGLE gambits as pun and that the town wouldn't inevitably lynch a pun JUNGLE is a violation of occam's razor.

I don't know if a gambit is likely or unlikely, I just know it can't be ruled out.

Nothing "can be ruled out". There is (almost) nothing which is impossible in a game. (Almost) everything CAN happen.

The job of a town player is to determine

which things most likely

did

happen

.

Gambiting is something which could have happened.
It is not something that is likely to have happened.

Ignoring the probability (rather, lack thereof) of it happening in favor of embracing the possibility it happened is thoroughly a pro-pun agenda.

The PLAN might have been for Impossibear to die, and scum!Jungle is then functionally a loud fruit vendor at very little risk.

When did JUNGLE claim the power? Was it on D1? This is something I don't know.

So feel free to correct me here, if JUNGLE announced his power on D1.

If JUNGLE didn't claim the power until D2, then this scenario you are outlining is impossible. The plan going awry? Well then JUNGLE simply has no need to claim the action.

Not claiming it loses the possibility of using it at all.

Yes, and if the power is pro-town and JUNGLE is pun...why is this a bad thing for the pun?

Having a competent mod design a quest with that degree of complexity and then allowing it to fail on a technicality when the intent was clear stretches credibility a little.

Counterpoint: this is a game moderated by GuyInFreezer. I know his modding well enough to know this is

precisely

the sort of stunt he would pull.

I suppose a mod could be that hardcore and town!Jungle could make that mistake, but it seems very unlikely.

What seems unlikely to me is you trying to find every possible reason to call JUNGLE pun ignoring all the reasons why he is likely town.

Moving on to the question of whether town would inevitably punish scum!Jungle with a lynch -- it seems that WIFOM might be king here and we might not do so simply on the "mistake".

Oh? And where do you draw the line on WIFOM? Everything could be WIFOM. So what WIFOM is 'valid' to you, and what WIFOM is 'invalid' to you? You can call anything WIFOM and I can demonstrate this quite easily if you doubt me. So what makes the possibility here be WIFOM to you worth invoking that name?

But that is very short sighted, to excuse it as human error and not a possible gambit.

No, that is called following occam's razor with a dosage of hanlon's razor:
Not attributing to malice what can best be explained far more simply with stupidity.
The simple answer is stupidity.
The complex answer requiring contrived justifications is malice based on some possible gambit.

If we look at Jungle

outside the quest info

, what would the read be?

If we look at JUNGLE outside of the quest info, the read would be solidly nulltown; there is nothing indicating pun and yet minor signs indicating town.

I've mentioned this before in other games, but I haven't been keeping solid track on who I've seen as scum and who I haven't. So I don't know if I have seen Nero lurk as scum.
I can say conclusively that the argumentative and pushy Nero that I've seen as town was not present in this game. And Projectmatt's posting hasn't struck me as town.

I would be willing to accept a Projectmatt lynch if necessary, but would prefer that we resolve Jungle. If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

"I'm not going to lynch pun #1 in spite of acknowledging the evidence against him".

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

"I'm not going to lynch pun #2 on the basis of role-related reasons; we should wait for her to produce conftown in spite of me having just said we should not allow JUNGLE to produce results". (Hello, hypocrite.)

I know you're IC and all, but nice job on Wraith there. I never did get the explanation that I wanted on that. IC's wanting to lynch obvtown is sadly a thing.

This is the absolute most pro-pun thing a player can do to a person that is conftown; he is attempting to discredit Kaede's push/content now off of Kaede's push yesterday when

Kaede wasn't even the main pusher of the Wraith lynch

.

Did I say davesaz was in a special punread category?

My mistake.

He is in the strong punreads category with MariaR and projectmatt.

I feel perhaps my snark weakens the strength of my point. So to reiterate,

If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

What differentiates these two, davesaz?

You are saying to lynch Jungle on the possibility his role may damage us; you are willing to sacrifice the utility of his ability.

You are saying to not lynch Maria on the possibility her role may help us; you are not willing to sacrifice the utility of her ability.

Care to offer an explanation?

@Kaede -- quote anything from Jungle that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously town. Anything that is making the slightest effort to solve the game.

Innocent until proven guilty; the burden of proof is on the accuser.

@dave: quote anything from JUNGLE that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously pun. Anything that is making the slightest effort to manipulate the town.

Not lynching scum Jungle is likely worse than lynching town Jungle.
I’m very concerned that scum Jungle could play a fruit vendor all the way to endgame. How many broken quests would it take?

This still fails to answer my question.

If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

What differentiates these two, davesaz?

You are saying to lynch Jungle on the possibility his role may damage us; you are willing to sacrifice the utility of his ability.

You are saying to not lynch Maria on the possibility her role may help us; you are not willing to sacrifice the utility of her ability.

Care to offer an explanation?

Sometimes ruling out the unlikely case is necessary. If logical answers always worked town win rates would be higher.

And where, precisely, do you draw the line on ruling out unlikely cases?

Impossibear could be a pun bulletproof vig. That's possible, yes? By your logic, you can and should be calling them pun.

Unless you can tell me how JUNGLE is distinctly different.

Scum lie and because they lie sometimes the unlikely answer is the correct one.

Scum can also be caught in those lies and yet you are adamant we not offer a chance for this to happen. If you're so sure JUNGLE is lying, then why not wait for it to be proven?

Furthermore. I asked you to provide reason aside from the roleclaim for why JUNGLE is suspicious as the burden of proof lies on the accuser. Where is it?

I already said I agree with a projectmatt lynch, if that is where consensus lies.

That is where the consensus lies. Why isn't your vote there?

This is everything I brought up against davesaz.

He has answered but a small fraction of them.

I'm concerned that pmatt's emotion the last few pages is looking like town frustration, and I can't tell if it's real or faked. Can you?

Why are the options "real and town" or "faked and pun"? projectmatt is in a situation which is frustrating regardless of his alignment; as a result, I treat the frustration as not having one.

[Punreader]

The only thing left for today is

Maria to provide the name of the other neighbor

, if such a person even exists. pmatt's flip will indicate lies or not.

She already did; it is davesaz.

[Punreader]

The things that you think are low probability are things that I think are high probability because they would be low probability

if there were no liars or curveballs

. Mafia is a game of liars and curveballs, in which ordinarily low probability things are the most likely.

This is my full and complete answer on why we disagree. Kindly stop trying to make it seem like I'm dodging.

The problem is that is a dodge, as it still fails to answer my points.

davesaz:

When I started reading, I had foreknowledge that davesaz's miller claim was

apparently retracted/changed into 'some negative utility'

at a later point.

The underlined is incorrect.
I stated that I'm miller. At a later point I said that my "ability" section had flavor in it. There has never been a retraction / change about the role -- it's straight Commonwealth miller with nothing else, and nothing but the flavor in the ability section.

Oh, that makes a difference then. I was under the impression from the list of claims that it had changed later in the game during a section I hadn't read.

With the knowledge it hasn't, you become a reasonably solid punread.

This comes from the first 20 pages. davesaz claimed miller; wilky counterclaimed miller. wilky was able to provide flavor, justification, and had more to his role; davesaz was dodgy and elusive at providing any details behind his role. I thought that was null because if he retracted/altered the claim later, that'd explain the behavior just as well. Him having maintained the claim offers him no such justification.

I don't know if a gambit is likely or unlikely, I just know it can't be ruled out.

Nothing "can be ruled out". There is (almost) nothing which is impossible in a game. (Almost) everything CAN happen.

The job of a town player is to determine

which things most likely

did

happen

.

Gambiting is something which could have happened.
It is not something that is likely to have happened.

Ignoring the probability (rather, lack thereof) of it happening in favor of embracing the possibility it happened is thoroughly a pro-pun agenda.

Moving on to the question of whether town would inevitably punish scum!Jungle with a lynch -- it seems that WIFOM might be king here and we might not do so simply on the "mistake".

Oh? And where do you draw the line on WIFOM? Everything could be WIFOM. So what WIFOM is 'valid' to you, and what WIFOM is 'invalid' to you? You can call anything WIFOM and I can demonstrate this quite easily if you doubt me. So what makes the possibility here be WIFOM to you worth invoking that name?

The point I am making here is that if nothing can be ruled out, where do you draw the line?

Is Impossibear a pun vig? That is a possibility; by your logic, davesaz, we should be suspecting that.

The PLAN might have been for Impossibear to die, and scum!Jungle is then functionally a loud fruit vendor at very little risk.

When did JUNGLE claim the power? Was it on D1? This is something I don't know.

So feel free to correct me here, if JUNGLE announced his power on D1.

If JUNGLE didn't claim the power until D2, then this scenario you are outlining is impossible. The plan going awry? Well then JUNGLE simply has no need to claim the action.

You never responded to this.

Not claiming it loses the possibility of using it at all.

Yes, and if the power is pro-town and JUNGLE is pun...why is this a bad thing for the pun?

You never responded to this.

Having a competent mod design a quest with that degree of complexity and then allowing it to fail on a technicality when the intent was clear stretches credibility a little.

Counterpoint: this is a game moderated by GuyInFreezer. I know his modding well enough to know this is

precisely

the sort of stunt he would pull.

You never argued with this.

But that is very short sighted, to excuse it as human error and not a possible gambit.

No, that is called following occam's razor with a dosage of hanlon's razor:
Not attributing to malice what can best be explained far more simply with stupidity.
The simple answer is stupidity.
The complex answer requiring contrived justifications is malice based on some possible gambit.

You never responded to this, which is a key part of the JUNGLE defense.

If we look at Jungle

outside the quest info

, what would the read be?

If we look at JUNGLE outside of the quest info, the read would be solidly nulltown; there is nothing indicating pun and yet minor signs indicating town.

You never responded to this.

I've mentioned this before in other games, but I haven't been keeping solid track on who I've seen as scum and who I haven't. So I don't know if I have seen Nero lurk as scum.
I can say conclusively that the argumentative and pushy Nero that I've seen as town was not present in this game. And Projectmatt's posting hasn't struck me as town.

I would be willing to accept a Projectmatt lynch if necessary, but would prefer that we resolve Jungle. If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

"I'm not going to lynch pun #1 in spite of acknowledging the evidence against him".

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

"I'm not going to lynch pun #2 on the basis of role-related reasons; we should wait for her to produce conftown in spite of me having just said we should not allow JUNGLE to produce results". (Hello, hypocrite.)

I know you're IC and all, but nice job on Wraith there. I never did get the explanation that I wanted on that. IC's wanting to lynch obvtown is sadly a thing.

This is the absolute most pro-pun thing a player can do to a person that is conftown; he is attempting to discredit Kaede's push/content now off of Kaede's push yesterday when

Kaede wasn't even the main pusher of the Wraith lynch

.

I feel perhaps my snark weakens the strength of my point. So to reiterate,

If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

What differentiates these two, davesaz?

You are saying to lynch Jungle on the possibility his role may damage us; you are willing to sacrifice the utility of his ability.

You are saying to not lynch Maria on the possibility her role may help us; you are not willing to sacrifice the utility of her ability.

Care to offer an explanation?

You have said you'd vote projectmatt

yet your vote is still not on him

. You have said to spare MariaR off of role reasons and yet to not spare JUNGLE off of role reasons

yet not differentiated between the two

.

@Kaede -- quote anything from Jungle that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously town. Anything that is making the slightest effort to solve the game.

Innocent until proven guilty; the burden of proof is on the accuser.

@dave: quote anything from JUNGLE that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously pun. Anything that is making the slightest effort to manipulate the town.

You've not provided this.

Scum lie and because they lie sometimes the unlikely answer is the correct one.

Scum can also be caught in those lies and yet you are adamant we not offer a chance for this to happen. If you're so sure JUNGLE is lying, then why not wait for it to be proven?

You never answered this.

I am well within my rights to call your responses a dodge, because you have dodged all of this to answer a mere fraction of my actual argument.

[Punreader]

hm
I'm actually not sure how to take that claim

At absolute best that's a nullclaim.

In all probability it is a punclaim.

Want to know why Nero didn't act?

Because Nero did act.

He was around all of N1.
Nero does not forget to submit night actions.
I have known him long enough to know that

he would policy lynch anyone claiming to have forgotten to submit their night action

.

[Punreader]

Punreader: I want your thoughts on these deductions at your next convenience.

If you think people are being cleared for mechanical reasons, sorry to disappoint. My read on wilky is play-based, not role-based; my read on Impossibear may be influenced by role but still has a basis in play; I am punreading matt, davesaz, and MariaR in spite of the role-based reasons to let them go; I have a play-based townread on REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE which gets stronger by the day; I have a lock-solid townread on OnTheMark separate from role-based reasons, revolving around play; Alchemist21 was already a strong townread without taking role into account.

Did I miss any roles?

Because if you want me to go over the play-based reasons for those townreads and punreads I can do so again.

[Punreader]

As I had previously indicated, I hid behind Kokichi Oma.

There's one scum among MariaR/Dave

Why is almost everyone concluding that it's only

one

, when the correct answer is

both

?

VOTE: MariaR.

I will also vote for davesaz; whichever wagon is larger, because both are your remaining pun.

[Punreader]

Can you quote me where this happened?

Spoiler: I sure can!

Nero Cain/projectmatt

-

Strong Town

- Nero Cain is a weird one; I think the best way for me to read Nero Cain is that the more we disagree on things, the more he's town. And... well, I disagreed on close to everything he's said. His posts have felt icky, but... not scum-motivated icky. I think the way he entered the game and engaged with my then-strongest townread would have pinged me if he was scum. projectmatt I'm more confident about; I think the two of us are similar in how we get reads, or at least it seems that way because a lot of the thoughts he has (and I'm not counting the mechanics debate posts) just makes sense to me. Plus, the way he handled the engagement with RC's case on him felt like he was engaging a townread to try to help them refine their reads rather than just remove/deflect the scumread, if that makes sense? I don't feel like his entire approach to the game comes from scum.

Overall impression from your reads is that almost all of your strong town, off of the reasoning you have given, are slots I'd be

concerned

about. In contrast, your normal townreads look fairly likely to be accurate. I lack the information to give feedback on those below the townread line off of your one post.

Overall impression from your reads is that almost all of your strong town, off of the reasoning you have given, are slots I'd be concerned about.

Why?

Your description of their play is describing things I would immediately be severely cautious about coming from the players in question.

Kaede- IC
Jungle- Weird Joat
Wilky- Miller Slow Cop
Maria- Some Kind of Investigative
OTM- Weird RB
Tchill- Non weak hider
Us- BP Vig w/ unspecified modifier
Flipped: Ability Swapper
For setup spec reference, cause I'm gonna want pun to do the same thing when they get their ass in here.

Ankamius
Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells)
Ramcius
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
davesaz- NEG UTIL
Kokichi Oma- Unclaimed
projectmatt- Unclaimed
Wraith- Unclaimed

Well quick analysis would be that there's probably 2-3 pun in the unclaimed with 0-1 pun in the claimed.

We have too much power claimed and a flipped scum. That means strong townreads outside of the claimed power roles are disproportionally more likely to be accurate.

Respectfully, I disagree. I strongly believe the unclaimed would contain a minimum of one pun, if not two. I would expect this game to be almost, but not quite, role madness. I'd expect 2-4 vanillas in the game total (let's say 3), including the one flipped already. Everyone else I would anticipate holding a role.

If you treat the game as role madness, you use a different metric to read game balance than a metric for a game that is predominantly vanilla. No matter which three names are pun, the game fundamentally

cannot

be predominantly vanilla. Ergo, the unclaimed aren't more cleared; they're more suspicious.

Kaede- IC
Jungle- Weird Joat
Wilky- Miller Slow Cop
Maria- Some Kind of Investigative
OTM- Weird RB
Tchill- Non weak hider
Us- BP Vig w/ unspecified modifier
Flipped: Ability Swapper
For setup spec reference, cause I'm gonna want pun to do the same thing when they get their ass in here.

Ankamius
Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells)
Ramcius
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
davesaz- NEG UTIL
Kokichi Oma- Unclaimed
projectmatt- Unclaimed
Wraith- Unclaimed

Well quick analysis would be that there's probably 2-3 pun in the unclaimed with 0-1 pun in the claimed. My role can act as a self-protective, your role has a protective, OnTheMark's roleblock gives a third source of killstopping power. This seems reasonable from town, but I would become suspect of an additional killstopper claim.

Kaede as an IC, the ability to get a second alignment confirmation, the miller slow cop, and the investigative is a little on the heavy side in terms of investigating. It's possible there's a pun in there, but not guaranteed. I would definitely lynch in there if we had an additional investigative claim.

I'd need to see the whole set of roles in the game for more thorough analysis. It'd be Impossible before then. Do bear with me.

Extrapolating from my conclusions thusfar, it would be fair to state I would not lynch most of the claimed roles at this juncture. Outside chance of MariaR but I wouldn't be comfortable concluding that so hastily; I'm not married to the concept.

I would lynch in the unclaimed players. Off of description of play, I'm not too concerned about Wraith or Alchemist21. (I'll concoct more tangible analysis later.) I'm also not so concerned about Dunnstral. (He's a read I don't need to put much effort into before getting dun.)

Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch) I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and

projectmatt

.
I wouldn't be confident he'd flip pun, but I'd lynch Ramicus if it came to it which seems to be what you want to do anyway.

Still, these are without reading the game so we'll have to see what changes when I've actually read D1.

Dave Wraith ProjectMatt Ank RC ETL Kokichi should have all the scums I think

@Pun
What do you think is right? Wrong? And maybe?

I would off of Ankamius's description think Wraith is wrong.
I would think Dave, outside chance at Ank (otherwise a wrong), severely outside chance of ETL (most likely a wrong), and Kokichi qualify as 'Maybe'.

I wouldn't go so far as to say ProjectMatt and RC are 'right', but they are focal points of mine.

Ask me again after I read D1; it's too early to really be certain.

I'm not getting the Wilky hate. Like at all. Why in the world would scum fakeclaim miller to 1v1 a useless powerrole. Everyone on that wagon gets -10 town cred.

What does seem possible to me is that Dave fakeclaims miller and then CC'd.

vote:Dave

While the read here is understandable enough, I am tempted to Nero my vision down to a tunnel and just keep calling the slot pun.

Clarify man with no name and Ventriloquist townreads please

I also read the whole thing and I hold interest in modern reads on Ouroboros and the Nero slot and if town why.

Hmm.
In the mean time.
VOTE: projectmatt.
It matters not which of Kokichi Oma/MariaR is pun; this remains pun regardless.

However, two of the three pun are projectmatt and MariaR.
I actually want this even stronger than I want projectmatt:
VOTE: MariaR.

Actually, Maria can't be faking tracker, so keeping cards close to the chest is unimportant.

Sure, it is a given she can't be faking it. Telling the truth does not indicate her alignment is town though.

I claim in the hood with rc

I claim that 3750 is a flagrant punclaim.

VOTE: ProjectMatt
with Wraith flipping green, his Wraith defense at the end of the day looks like TMI and attempt to get town cred, he didn't tried save him, he just didn't wanted to be on ML wagon

You are not wrong.

I will vote whichever of MariaR/projectmatt has a larger wagon. If both have equal wagons, my vote defaults to MariaR.

By proxy, you may remember this is calling Kokichi town.

Summary
MariaR is in a neighborhood with Dunn and Ouroboros created by Ouroboros.
That neighborhood also controls a tracker among all of them, track target must be agreed to by majority.
If there's 1 or more scum in the hood the track will always yield "didn't visit" regardless.
MariaR claims to track matt and getting "didn't visit"
matt confirms this.
wilky claims no result and blames OTM for it.
OTM says he targeted dave.

Alternative theory tying these together. MariaR is pun, and thus, regardless of whom was tracked, the result would be "didn't visit". projectmatt was selected (Ouroboros wanted it and MariaR knowing it could create a false negative went along with this) to falsely clear him as regardless of whether he took an action or not it would always display as him having not taken one due to MariaR's alignment being pun. willky's action failed because MariaR's role provided immunity to the investigation. (Alternatively, projectmatt has a blocking role and targeted willky.)

willky, Dunnstral, and OnTheMark are all town; MariaR and projectmatt completely messed up the town's actions.

Furthermore, JUNGLE is town who made a mistake.

LEFTOVERS:

Ramcius
davesaz

STRONG PUNREADS:

MariaR
Nero Cain/projectmatt

davesaz:

When I started reading, I had foreknowledge that davesaz's miller claim was apparently retracted/changed into 'some negative utility' at a later point. This would explain his rather dodgy early actions and play, so I was willing to write it off as null. I would say that I would normally be heavily inclined to punread him otherwise. There is literally nothing town about him, but if I'm honest, the most daving thing is simply POE;

someone

has to be the fourth and I think he's the best candidate. Also, there is the chance he was in fact blocked N1.

MariaR:

My punread here is four-fold: Dodgy, sketchy play; setup speculation plus night action results; personal experience with her meta; trusting in Kokichi Oma's personal meta experience. Each of these, I can explain in detail.

MariaR is basically actively lurking through this game; she is frequently and consistently failing to provide pertinent game content and I can cite many instances including prod dodges which are absent in other games she is a player in. There's a bunch of posts I can quote but this is perhaps best done in a followthrough post as compiling the entire list here would make this post 20 times longer.

Setup speculation indicates we should have a pun in the investigative claims. We have MariaR's, we have the proven track from Ouroboros, we have wilky's delayed cop, we have Kaede's IC as conftown, we have Jungle's claimed ability to make another player's alignment revealed (even if he messed up on making it work), and in that pool you can reasonably expect there to be a pun.

It wasn't Ouroboros.
It's not Kaede.
I have townreads on wilky and Jungle.
Ergo, MariaR's role is likely a truthful investigative, just belonging to pun.

This is magnified by the outcome of events. Ouroboros just so happened to recruit MariaR at apparently the earliest opportunity. And then Ouroboros just so happened to die almost immediately after that. I feel the two events are in fact linked together. Yes, Ouroboros had other reasons to die, but I think that role contributed to it because pun knew what their role was.

My own experience with MariaR indicates this is far more likely to be her pungame than her towngame.

And then when you throw in that Kokichi Oma is perhaps the player on site I would most trust to be able to read her and he says she's pun, then I really think we should Maki this wagon happen sooner rather than later.

projectmatt:

I've been a close associate of Nero Cain's since before most of the players in this game even joined mafiascum. Over the years, I have gotten to know his play intimately. He can be aptly described as a ruder, more competent, more arrogant version of Creature.

By which, I mean, regardless of his alignment, he's going to be an ass, who presents a holier-than-thou attitude. Regardless of his alignment, his charisma is dismal. However, at his base, the same core tell always works on him regardless; when he is town, he is incredibly active to the point of being almost a spam poster, providing reads which are strong, confident, and accurate. He is in your face and always has something to say with what he says being game content rather than fluff.

When he is pun, he is a lurker. Mostly just lurking, since he does produce actual content when around (just at a far more infrequent rate), but he does a fair share of active lurking as well. I Cain tell you, having known him for the years that I have, this is squarely in the latter category. He was doing almost nothing the entire time he was around. If he were town, he'd have been all over Ventriloquist as well. His list of sins is great, and I'm not sure I can even properly describe all of them because as such a long-time associate these are things I just know rather than needing to explain to others.

I haven't gotten the chance to really read projectmatt content since then, but I wouldn't need to in order to conclude pun.

That having been said, the little content I have seen indicates pun as well. For instance, the Wraith defense at day end

did

seem like TMI, knowing he was going to flip town and hoping to earn town credit from not being on the lynch wagon.

Since this wagon is larger:
VOTE: projectmatt.

Nero was lurky as scum in Necromancer too.

As a thought experiment. Let me demonstrate to you Nero Cain's meta.
This is a list of every Large Theme Nero Cain has posted in.

This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. While not two pages, that game suffered from numerous hastened deaths; having as many posts as he does there is still impressively large.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. NINE pages. (Caveat: everyone that game had more posts than normal.)
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages, and that's only from two gamedays.
This is just about one of the shortest towngames you'll find from Nero Cain.
This is Nero Cain's more typical iso once more as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Short for him, I will admit.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as a lategame replacement. Keep the timing of his replacement in mind for the amount of volume he produced.
As far as I can tell, Nero Cain was town here. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Shorter than most, but still two pages.
I'm excluding this game as Nero Cain replaced in late during the day and was killed that very same night, unless anyone has objections. If you do object and wish to count it as valid, then may I continue to point out what is more typical?
Such as this Nero Cain iso as town. Three pages.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages. And he only had one day phase to produce it, as he died N1.
Considering the length of the game, this is fairly short, but Nero Cain's iso as town still managed the feat.
I do confess another shorter iso would be this one as town.
I should technically mention this iso here as well is short, but for good reason; note the V/LA which led to him being replaced. To offset that,
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Four pages.
This is a shorter Nero Cain iso as town. It is shorter because they died N1, yet still managed over a hundred posts.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Three pages.
I am fairly certain Nero Cain is Gollum and thus this is his iso as town. Shorter at two pages, but still broke the barrier.
If Nero Cain is Gollum, This is his iso as town. Two pages, and he died N1 no less.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages, so a bit short given the duration he was alive.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Two pages, so a bit short given the duration he was alive.
This is Nero Cain's iso as town. Four pages.

This is Nero Cain's iso as pun.
This is Nero Cain's iso as pun. Multiball, to boot. Yet he still didn't post much comparatively speaking.
This is Nero Cain as pun doing respectably well. And it spanned the entire game (he was the last pun alive).
This is a little bit longer an iso from Nero Cain as pun yet he still didn't breach the two-page barrier.
This is the one and only example of Nero Cain breaching the barrier as pun I can find. If I had to suspect, multiball may play a part.
This is Nero Cain as pun across multiple day phases with a hydra partner still failing to breach the barrier.
This is Nero Cain as the last surviving pun coming close but still failing.
This is Nero Cain's iso as pun.
Nero Cain did breach the barrier in this game as pun, but it is noteworthy that game was multiball which I again suspect played a part.
This is Nero Cain's iso as pun.
So this game featured cultafia and thus I'm not sure if he started as town or not, and he did request replacement, but all the same I thought I would mention this Nero Cain iso as pun.

Not mentioned because I know he was in the game as a hydra but I don't know what his account name was: this game.

That is five years' worth of meta on Nero Cain for Large Themes.

Five years

, the last five years, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2013 (which I didn't go back to the beginning of the year on, just up until the beginning of March 2013).

Can Nero Cain's activity tell in of itself guarantee his alignment? No, it cannot; there are outliers as town where he produced less content and outliers as pun where he produced more. But it is one of the most solid tells you can have on site. If you doubt the tell, try checking out the towngames I am linking to and compare them to the pungames I am linking to.

This is thoroughly his punplay.

And as projectmatt inherited the slot, he is pun.

I've mentioned this before in other games, but I haven't been keeping solid track on who I've seen as scum and who I haven't. So I don't know if I have seen Nero lurk as scum.
I can say conclusively that the argumentative and pushy Nero that I've seen as town was not present in this game. And Projectmatt's posting hasn't struck me as town.

I would be willing to accept a Projectmatt lynch if necessary, but would prefer that we resolve Jungle. If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

"I'm not going to lynch pun #1 in spite of acknowledging the evidence against him".

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

"I'm not going to lynch pun #2 on the basis of role-related reasons; we should wait for her to produce conftown in spite of me having just said we should not allow JUNGLE to produce results". (Hello, hypocrite.)

I know you're IC and all, but nice job on Wraith there. I never did get the explanation that I wanted on that. IC's wanting to lynch obvtown is sadly a thing.

This is the absolute most pro-pun thing a player can do to a person that is conftown; he is attempting to discredit Kaede's push/content now off of Kaede's push yesterday when

Kaede wasn't even the main pusher of the Wraith lynch

.

Did I say davesaz was in a special punread category?

My mistake.

He is in the strong punreads category with MariaR and projectmatt.

>when your 2 sr's are the biggest wagon
it's Christmas time to see who I can lynch first

And yet you vote neither.

Pun, do you have experience with projectmatt?

Enough to say he is one of the most underrated pun players on the site. He has an elite pungame which consistently performs quite well, yet almost nobody seems to be aware of this. I would attribute it at least in part to not being able to strongly differentiate between his towngame and his pungame.

His pungame is almost identical to his towngame in my experience, making it difficult to distinguish between the two. Yet he is an incredibly

good

town player, which translates into extreme hesitance to lynch him when he is pun because he is a master of making it look like he is a good town player when he is pun.

This doesn't mean it is impossible to read him, of course. I acknowledge I personally hold little ability to tell the difference and that he is incredibly competent as either alignment. This is one of the main reasons why I am adamant you not trust him and ignore that he replaced Nero Cain. Nero had strong evidence which suggested overwhelmingly he was far more likely to be pun than town, and projectmatt regardless of his alignment was going to make people like him because

that's just what he does

.

requoting in case pun missed it.

I didn't, but I indicated why looking won't be of use already:

Pun, do you have experience with projectmatt?

Enough to say he is one of the most underrated pun players on the site. He has an elite pungame which consistently performs quite well, yet almost nobody seems to be aware of this. I would attribute it at least in part to not being able to strongly differentiate between his towngame and his pungame.

His pungame is almost identical to his towngame in my experience, making it difficult to distinguish between the two. Yet he is an incredibly

good

town player, which translates into extreme hesitance to lynch him when he is pun because he is a master of making it look like he is a good town player when he is pun.

This doesn't mean it is impossible to read him, of course. I acknowledge I personally hold little ability to tell the difference and that he is incredibly competent as either alignment. This is one of the main reasons why I am adamant you not trust him, and not ignore that he replaced Nero Cain. Nero had strong evidence which suggested overwhelmingly he was far more likely to be pun than town, and projectmatt regardless of his alignment was going to make people like him because

that's just what he does

.

I already know that regardless of your alignment you will produce content which looks good and I acknowledge I personally have little ability to distinguish between good-town and good-pun. That is one of the reasons I am using the more reliable metric of Nero's content.

also pun, have you played with me on mafiascum or on another mafia website? i'm genuinely curious, just because i don't play here that often.

Both. I believe you originated from EpicMafia, yes? (I could be misremembering my scummer history there, but I seem to distinctly recall you were a prominent player there back in the day.) Additionally, we may have had one or two games on some other site beyond there, but if so I wouldn't recall the specifics.

I already said I agree with a projectmatt lynch, if that is where consensus lies.

That is where the consensus lies. Why isn't your vote there?

Partner is dave k choo choo I'm busy hurry up

The hilarious part is, she can say this truthfully in more than one way.

I'm concerned that pmatt's emotion the last few pages is looking like town frustration, and I can't tell if it's real or faked. Can you?

Why are the options "real and town" or "faked and pun"? projectmatt is in a situation which is frustrating regardless of his alignment; as a result, I treat the frustration as not having one.

I feel perhaps my snark weakens the strength of my point. So to reiterate,

If we allow scum!Jungle to push another fruitless outlandish quest on town it might damage us beyond repair. Am I wrong to think it's within the mod's range to include something tantalizing as a way to punish a greedy town? In the unlikely event Jungle is really town, it would be bad to lose the potential upside, but I can't see the game being designed so that town needs the quest to win. Furthermore if Jungle is town and the quest is powerful, why would scum leave the quest giver alive?

Regarding Maria, I know we can count on RC to have invited another member to the neighborhood. We can hope that at least one of them is town. If the neighborhood generates a track result on someone who visits, it yields two conf or a town/scum dipole. I think we wait on her to see what results there are, if any.

What differentiates these two, davesaz?

You are saying to lynch Jungle on the possibility his role may damage us; you are willing to sacrifice the utility of his ability.

You are saying to not lynch Maria on the possibility her role may help us; you are not willing to sacrifice the utility of her ability.

Care to offer an explanation?

You have said you'd vote projectmatt

yet your vote is still not on him

. You have said to spare MariaR off of role reasons and yet to not spare JUNGLE off of role reasons

yet not differentiated between the two

.

hm
I'm actually not sure how to take that claim

At absolute best that's a nullclaim.

In all probability it is a punclaim.

Want to know why Nero didn't act?

Because Nero did act.

He was around all of N1.
Nero does not forget to submit night actions.
I have known him long enough to know that

he would policy lynch anyone claiming to have forgotten to submit their night action

.

Punreader: I want your thoughts on these deductions at your next convenience.

If you think people are being cleared for mechanical reasons, sorry to disappoint. My read on wilky is play-based, not role-based; my read on Impossibear may be influenced by role but still has a basis in play;

I am punreading matt, davesaz, and MariaR in spite of the role-based reasons to let them go

; I have a play-based townread on REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE which gets stronger by the day; I have a lock-solid townread on OnTheMark separate from role-based reasons, revolving around play; Alchemist21 was already a strong townread without taking role into account.

Did I miss any roles?

Because if you want me to go over the play-based reasons for those townreads and punreads I can do so again.

Bonus: most (but not all) of my case for MariaR being pun included, as well as about half (but not all) of my reasons for davesaz being pun.

[Punreader]

Dave and Jungle fuck :/

OnTheMark.

MariaR is mechanically confirmed to be pun.

We're talking, this is literally a Jingle-guilty all over again. She is, 100%, unambiguously, confirmed to be pun.

projectmatt had, and used, an action N2.
MariaR was the only member of the neighborhood aside from Ouroboros.
As per the mod, davesaz even if he were pun (he is) being added to the hood

does not influence the results of the night

.
The claimed results were that projectmatt did not action.

She is literally guiltied beyond guilt.

davesaz is indeed pun, and is indeed her partner, but there is no possible world where MariaR would be town.

[Punreader]

Abilities:

• Recruit:
  During the night, you may recruit a player to your neighborhood. You can only invite up to two members. If for any reason one of your member dies, you may recruit again up to the maximum members.
  
• Railroad:
  Recruiting a member awards you with 1-shot track for the neighborhood. This ability is a shared ability and the majority of the neighborhood must agree to a target. Recruiting the member of the
  Institute
  will permanently compromise this ability and you will get "no visit" result for all investigations, regardless of your target's actual actions.

Someone asked for clarification. Deacon's neighbor track receives that the target did not visit anyone regardless of if the target actually visited someone when the neighborhood is compromised.

@MOD, Regarding this quoted role, if a member of the Institute were recruited on the same Night as a Track attempt, would that Night's Track attempt return a "no visit" result?

@MOD, Regarding this quoted role, if a member of the Institute were recruited on the same Night as a Track attempt, would that Night's Track attempt return a "no visit" result?

The result will be compromised when the institute is already in the neighborhood.

I claim in the hood with rc

The target did not visit.

They have no reason to lie, even as scum. If they say they did visit and you're lynched as town, they are confirmed scum. Which isn't a good trade off.

eh fair it was matt

i confirm that i did not visit last night.

my flavor is piper. i'm an odd night rolecop. my pm specifies that i can investigate on every other night, starting on n1.

nero cain did not submit an action on night one. (i've been trying to figure out why, tbh.)

i was unable to investigate tonight.

assuming i'm not lynched today, i am going to investigate tonight within impossibear's scumpool.

projectmatt, Piper (

Institute Role Cop

), was lynched Day 3.

Piper

Abilities:

• Bodyswapped:
  Your flavor is safe to claim as is.
  
• I'm a reporter, dammit:
  During the night, you may learn your target's role.

All the pertinent information, quoted in one spot.

[Punreader]

For the record, as our vig is dead, I intend to hide behind davesaz tonight.
I would strongly recommend OnTheMark block davesaz after a MariaR lynch.

Others should action as how they best see fit.

[Punreader]

The main thing about dunn is that matt was also hardcore tunneling him until MariaR softcleared him

I mean nero and Maria were both scum and did theater with each other. I could see Dunn being involved in that.

I like your idea, but I think you have the wrong target. There was someone else involved:

I don't think the miller really needs to be talked on and should just focus on the play of said miller. It can be a fake claim but that doesn't mean it's a scum fake claim either. Just focus on day play and if something comes up we can talk about it.

My question is why add 2 millers in the first place if both the flavor on the miller part would conf them they'd become masons within the matter of moments it feels too simple.
Perhaps that's the whole wifom trick gif wanted us to play around?

I don't think we should've went into full detail on this until both millers claimed flavor but I still somewhat want to play it as is on day play not night play because the 2 miller thing just has a lot of wifom stuff in it that we can't really solve on our own.

I would rather wilky claim first myself because his whole way of going at it gives me bad vibes that I can't really explain compared to dave

I don't think anyone (nor should) is saying that we must lynch in the millers it was mostly "out guess the mod" and wifom based on flavor. I think reading on the play itself is what's more important. I'm willing to join the Wilky wagon but It's not for the miller claiim more so his rxn to the whole thing also I assume in a game like fall out there would be fake claims? so I don't really like RC's vote reason for Wilky.
VOTE: Wilky

I'm not getting the Wilky hate. Like at all. Why in the world would scum fakeclaim miller to 1v1 a useless powerrole. Everyone on that wagon gets -10 town cred.

What does seem possible to me is that Dave fakeclaims miller and then CC'd.

vote:Dave

Oh wait we have

two

Miller claims out the gate?

We're going to need some immediate flavor claims.

^

I mean I brought up the flavour thing and even pointed to which part of the PM it is contained within. As scum I wouldn't know that information if everyone wants me to claim first then that's fine by me.

I was also working off the assumption that there would only be 1 miller tbh and was aiming to catch dave out already but going by what's been said 2 millers is something the mod would definitely do so i'm now beginning to believe both me and dave are millers here.

So we're just assuming that safe claims are given now?

These pinged me as scummy stuff with tmi trying to withhold info. And even without the miller claims I don't really like his tone about the whole miller situation in the first place. Why are you voting Ank? For pressure or because you sr them? I don't think just voting will hurry them up with whatever they're doing.

He's claiming a neg utility role. Hiders are weak by nature, he's saying that GIF has nerfed the role and made it not weak. The idea of 3 neg utility roles irks me. There is a fake claimer in this group.

I'm not getting the Wilky hate. Like at all. Why in the world would scum fakeclaim miller to 1v1 a useless powerrole

It's possible Wilky fakeclaimed Miller to try and appear as a second Miller. It would make sense given the mod meta that 2 millers in a game has been done by this mod before, but on the other hand Wilky did say this was their first large Theme game so I doubt they would have been aware enough of Gif's mod meta to have taken advantage of it unless a scumbuddy told them. But yeah, you're probably right and to think Wilky's scum requires a lot of assumptions, more than are probably reasonable.

good posting.

Who is aware of Gifs mod meta, besides ouroboros?

I'm not getting the Wilky hate. Like at all. Why in the world would scum fakeclaim miller to 1v1 a useless powerrole. Everyone on that wagon gets -10 town cred.

What does seem possible to me is that Dave fakeclaims miller and then CC'd.

vote:Dave

This is a terrible viewpoint on the matter
You're acting like the fakeclaim was to 1v1: if Wilky had claimed and I had bloodlust time to murder this fuck who fakeclaimed miller vibes I would have agreed with you.
I got the vibes with Wilky's claim that he was voting Davesaz because he was obligated to and looking for a way to defuse the tension and end with oh we both agree we're both town.

I went back read 52 b/c I didn't get that vibe at all. If I title my head just right I could maybe understand someone taking the "Until then" line as a character fish/intent to town read them later on but what I really don't get is

i saw the first miller claim and was like

there's probably gonna be another, this being a gif game and all

Do you think there are two millers in this game?

Well, I mean I felt like Dave was scummier than Wilky here and I haven't really changed my mind so....what else do you feel like I should be doing?

VOTE: Nero Cain
This seems good

Because focusing on negative utility roles is a distraction and is the kind of thing I'd expect scum to be doing if both millers were town

VOTE: Nero

Well, I mean I felt like Dave was scummier than Wilky here and I haven't really changed my mind so....what else do you feel like I should be doing?

I'd like it if you could expand on your dave/wilky viewpoint.

it's mostly the same as b4. I don't really see scum Wilky CCing Dave here. Them both being Millers is just as equally plausible to me as Wilky Dave fakeclaiming miller as scum. I'm not really getting y I can't think that Dave is scum that got CC'd. If its "there's mod meta!" then fair, I'm not saying we HAVE to vote Dave I just hadn't moved my vote to another scumspect yet. I'd want to lynch off the Wilky mini wagon.

I don't get how town Nero can get "oh 3 people claim neg utility so scum has to be fake claiming" without thinking if that's the case town has to have some great stuff or scum are underpowered etc etc.
Scum nero thinking that and using it as an agenda to push something makes a lot more sense though imo.

You're saying I can't find that genuine when from my "join date" I didn't know why you thought that so why did you just think "oh it's a scum thought process" right away? Also just because you point to wiki and find a role weak doesn't mean it can't be in the game that's not the issue at hand here. The issue is you're saying 3 roles 1 has to be a fake claim in them via scum and that's the agenda you're pushing that I have a problem with it's not me saying you don't think hiders are weak I don't really care about that. I just don't get why you closed off the thought of "oh maybe they could all be town" Do you sr people in the group besides the claims? I see you tr wilk because you don't see scum him ccing but what do you feel about dave and tchi play wise?

without thinking if that's the case town has to have some great stuff or scum are underpowered etc etc.

Its putting words into my mouth.

I guess the real question is why can't I, as town, think there's a fake claimer in 3 neg utility roles? I guess the other question is why do you think all 3 are town and they aren't fakeclaiming.

Do you sr people in the group besides the claims? I see you tr wilk because you don't see scum him ccing but what do you feel about dave and tchi play wise?

I DO! I think you are scum and the RC hydra is scummy and Khade. Dave and tchill are null, it's pure WIFOM paranoid.

WRT Maria, not a fan of her voting with me while simultaneously saying something about how she doesn't like my reasons for voting him

thought I do like this I just didn't like how RC seemingly was talking out of both sides of his mouth about Wilky.

And your going from "I think Wilky is scum" to "guys lets all believe the the 3 neg utility roles" makes your Wilky vote seem pretty bandwagony.

guess the real question is why can't I, as town, think there's a fake claimer in 3 neg utility roles? I guess the other question is why do you think all 3 are town and they aren't fakeclaiming.

I never said the 2nd part see

this

is putting words into someones mouth just because I am voting you because of something I dislike does not mean I throw my other logic on wilky out the window

Alright if that is all I'm done this convo and have fruit to eat.

I know 2 town roles, maybe 4 since I'm coming around to the idea of using two millers. Its not enough for me to know whether or not the town is weak or strong and I can't tell you about the nature of the scumteam.
How is that NOT putting words into my mouth?

I had felt like her quoting my 222 was a misrep of the usage of the word weak there and her trying to claim that I'm calling hiders weak and thus the town weak.

She's basicly sheeping Dunn here but adding on some strongly worded hot air. If she thinks I'm scummy that I felt it was a very strong possibility that one of Dave or Tchill was scum that got CCed/fakeclaimed then fine but she's trying hard to make it seem like she's not sheeping Dunn. I don't really understand why she thinks I think

Wilky

your top scum read is town as fuck Wilky while you also blasted me for thinking that there's scum in the fake claimers? This is hypocritical as fuck.

*shrug* I guess I don't get why it takes people for a loop when they see 2 of the same claim. I ran into the same issue before in a game got n1ed for being a voice of reason. Remind me what your stance of the 2 players in question are play wise?

I'm policy dayvigging the next person to vote a claimed mason.

(^^^He meant miller, for clarity.^^^)

You know the player this implicates to me?

VOTE: davesaz.

[Punreader]

punreader: did you target davesaz last night?

I did, but as a reminder, I don't die when hiding behind people who don't share my alignment, so I cannot clear players I hide behind.

It does make an excellent incentive for the pun to nightkill the player I'm hiding behind if the player I hide behind is town, because at this stage I feel fairly confident that I am obvtown enough to never be lynched, I have strongly contributed to the lynch of two pun, and while davesaz may or may not be the last one, even if he isn't I am still going to POE the game down bit by bit.

For instance, right now if davesaz were to flip town, I'd hide behind Kokichi Oma again.

I should get an updated reads list which when inverted could give a lynch order.

I largely expect it to be unnecessary though, as I am primarily planning for a davesaz lynch to end the game in a town win. But, never hurts to take the precaution.

[Punreader]

Who did Math block.

Honestly, likely me, given OnTheMark's last indicated posting was asking Ankamius if it would be bad to block me. If we were going by OnTheMark's reads, however, it would be either wilky (thus the failed result) or davesaz (making lynching him a mistake, but regrettably, I am not psychic so if this were the case I have no way of telling).

[Punreader]

HAS COMMON INTERESTS:

Kaede Akamatsu
Wilky
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

HIGHLY LIKELY TOWN:

Ankamius
verylazy/Kokichi Oma

LEFTOVER:

Ramcius/YT2980

STRONG PUNREADS:

davesaz

This remains largely the same, however, I would demote Dunnstral to be below Ankamius on the list. I still feel this is more likely his towngame, but recognize it's not impossible for his play to be pun.

I strongly believe the JUNGLE lynch wagon was not pun bussing, so I maintain my townread there. In fact, he probably gets promoted, above Alchemist.

I strongly believe wilky is town regardless of davesaz's alignment off of the way the whole situation unfolded: his counterclaim, how he handled it, and his interactions with the pun. Furthermore, while it does remain doubtful that we'll get a successful investigation, there is a

chance

he could succeed if we let him live longer, and we can afford this. We have ten alive. Mislynch today, nightkill tonight, eight or seven (if I die) alive tomorrow. Mislynch again, six (or five) alive the day after, giving wilky time for the result. We even have another mislynch to spare after that, to come to four (or three) alive. We don't have to let him live until lylo, but I'm still not lynching him before 5/6p.

Alchemist I will need to give a full dive on to check his stances, but I have felt he has strongly been furthering the town wincon. This is a read similar to my Ankamius read.

Kokichi Oma I maintain is doubtfully pun with MariaR and thus likely town, but it's not altogether out of the question that he'd bus.

Ramcius/YT2980 does look rather town to me, but while the effort looks town and the interactions with projectmatt were town, there is a certain something missing keeping me from locktowning the slot.

[Punreader]

punreader, did you get any indication from the mod that your action failed?

No, which is standard for roleblocked individuals in most instances; they only receive notification if it is an action they always would receive notification on.

[Punreader]

Maybe we should try #ColoredVoteCounts #VCA

You jest, but there's something useful from the VCs. I've got increased townreads on Ramicus's slot and Dunnstral from it (and I'm not finished). I'll explain once you can see everything in one spot. Let me finish this little pet project and I'll explain the findings.

Put simply, Ramicus and Dunnstral have a strong town trait emerge which is only visible now that we have the flips we do. I may find additional insight further in; this isn't even through D1 and I've got reason to believe they're town.

[Punreader]

While we're here.

Ventriloquist, Second-Gen Synth (

Institute Factional Ability Swapper

), was terminated via mob lynching Day 1.

Spoiler: Role PM

Second-Gen Synth

Welcome to Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition!

You are

Second-Gen Synth (

Institute Factional Ability Swapper

)

.

A common Institute mook.

---

Abilities:

• Bodyswap:
  At any point of the game, you may switch your role with your factional members by PMing the mod.

---

Win Condition

• Take control of half of the alive players, or when it can not be prevented.

This was a pet theory of mine.
I couldn't help but wonder.

What if "Second-Generation Synth" isn't the name of the role, but the number of times a swap has occurred? That being, the first-generation Synth would be the original holder of the role; second-generation synth would be the second holder of the role; third generation synth would be the third holder, and so on.

If this were the case, that would indicate precisely one switch took place, and may indicate that there was a pun player who was pressured, forcing the switch. As I never quite finished my D1 readthrough, I wouldn't be able to point any fingers and even if I had read the content there's no guarantee it wasn't simply Nero or MariaR.

[Punreader]

VC 1.01

Ventriloquist

(2):

davesaz,

hebichan

Ouroboros

(1):

Alchemist21
[b

]Nero Cain

(1):[/b]

Impossibear

Tchill13

(1):

verylazy

Kaede Akamatsu

(1):

Dunnstral

MariaR

(1):

Ramcius

davesaz (1):

wilky

wilky (5):

Ouroboros

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

, Ankamius

Not Voting:

Wraith

,

Tchill13

,

Ventriloquist

,

Nero Cain

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

VC 1.02

Tchill13

(3):

verylazy,

Impossibear

, davesaz

Kaede Akamatsu

(1):

Dunnstral

davesaz (1):

Nero Cain

wilky (4):

Kaede Akamatsu

,

MariaR

, Ankamius,

Tchill13

Ankamius (1):

Alchemist21

Ouroboros

(1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Ramcius (4):

wilky,

Ouroboros

,

ManWithNoName

,

hebichan

Not Voting:

Wraith

,

Ventriloquist

, Ramcius

VC 1.03

Tchill13

(4):

verylazy,

Impossibear

, davesaz,

Wraith

wilky (1):

Tchill13

Ouroboros

(1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Ramcius (3):

wilky,

Ventriloquist

, Alchemist21

Nero Cain

(2):

Dunnstral,

MariaR

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain

Ventriloquist

(2):

Ouroboros

,

hebichan

verylazy (1):

Kaede Akamatsu

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (1):

ManWithNoName

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ankamius

Not Voting:

Ramcius

VC 1.04

Tchill13

(2):

verylazy, davesaz

wilky (1):

Tchill13

Ramcius (3):

wilky,

Ventriloquist

, Alchemist21

Nero Cain

(2):

Dunnstral, Ramcius

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain

Ventriloquist

(6):

Ouroboros

,

hebichan

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

verylazy (1):

Kaede Akamatsu

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ankamius

Wraith

(1):

Impossibear

VC 1.05

Tchill13

(2):

verylazy, davesaz

wilky (1):

Tchill13

Ramcius (2):

wilky,

Ventriloquist

Nero Cain

(2):

Dunnstral, Ramcius

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain

Ventriloquist

(6):

Ouroboros

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

, Alchemist21

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ankamius

Wraith

(2):

Impossibear

,

Kaede Akamatsu

Not Voting:

hebichan

VC 1.06

Tchill13

(1):

verylazy

wilky (1):

Ramcius

Ramcius (1):

wilky

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain

Ventriloquist

(8):

Ouroboros

,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz,

Tchill13

ManWithNoName

(2):

Ankamius,

Ventriloquist

Wraith

(1):

Impossibear

Impossibear

(1):

Dunnstral

davesaz (1):

hebichan

verylazy (1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

VC 1.07

Tchill13

(1):

verylazy

wilky (1):

Ramcius

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain

Ventriloquist

(10):

Ouroboros

,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz,

Tchill13

, wilky, Ankamius

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ventriloquist

Wraith

(1):

Impossibear

Impossibear

(1):

Dunnstral

davesaz (1):

hebichan

verylazy (1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

VC 2.01

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

Ouroboros

Kokichi Oma (2):

Dunnstral, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Ankamius (2):

Ramcius,

Wraith

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan

wilky (2):

MariaR

,

Impossibear

Not Voting:

Tchill13

, Kokichi Oma, wilky,

Nero Cain

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz

2.01

wilky (3):

MariaR

,

Ouroboros

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

Kokichi Oma (2):

Dunnstral

Ankamius (1):

Ramcius

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan

Ramcius (1):

wilky

Tchill13

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Tchill13

, Kokichi Oma,

Nero Cain

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz,

Impossibear

2.02

wilky (3):

MariaR

,

Ouroboros

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

Kokichi Oma (2):

Dunnstral

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan

Ramcius (3):

wilky, Ramcius,

Impossibear

Tchill13

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Tchill13

, Kokichi Oma,

Nero Cain

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz

2.02

wilky (3):

MariaR

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

Tchill13

Dunnstral (1):

Ankamius

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan

Ramcius (4):

wilky, Ramcius,

Impossibear

, Dunnstral

Tchill13

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz,

Ouroboros

2.03

wilky (3):

MariaR

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

Tchill13

Dunnstral (1):

Ankamius

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan

Ramcius (6):

wilky, Ramcius,

Impossibear

, Dunnstral,

projectmatt

, Kokichi Oma

Tchill13

(1):

Wraith

Ouroboros

(1):

Kaede Akamatsu

Not Voting:

Alchemist21, davesaz,

Ouroboros

2.04

wilky (2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan

Ramcius (5):

wilky, Dunnstral,

projectmatt

, Kokichi Oma, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Tchill13

(3):

Wraith

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

Impossibear

Kokichi Oma (2):

Ouroboros

, Ankamius

Not Voting:

Alchemist21, davesaz, Ramcius

2.05

wilky (2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13

Ramcius (3):

wilky, Dunnstral,

projectmatt

Tchill13

(5):

Wraith, Kaede Akamatsu, Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Kokichi Oma (2):

Ankamius,

OnTheMark

Wraith

(1):

Ouroboros

Not Voting:

Alchemist21, davesaz, Ramcius

2.06

wilky (2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13

Ramcius (2):

wilky,

projectmatt

Tchill13

(8):

Wraith

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

OnTheMark

, Ankamius, Dunnstral

Ankamius (1):

Ouroboros

Not Voting:

Alchemist21, davesaz, Ramcius

2.07

wilky (2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13

Ramcius (1):

wilky

Tchill13

(2):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, davesaz

davesaz (4):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma,

Kaede Akamatsu, Wraith

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

projectmatt

OnTheMark (1):

Ouroboros

Wraith

(1):

Ramcius

projectmatt

(1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

Alchemist21,

Impossibear

2.09

wilky (1):

Tchill13

Ramcius (2):

wilky, Ankamius

Tchill13

(3):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, davesaz,

MariaR

davesaz (3):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma,

Wraith

Dunnstral (2):

projectmatt

, Alchemist21

OnTheMark

(1):

Ouroboros

Wraith

(1):

Ramcius

projectmatt

(1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

Impossibear, Kaede Akamatsu

2.10

wilky (1):

punreader

Ramcius (3):

wilky, Ankamius,

projectmatt

punreader

(1):

davesaz

davesaz (1):

Kokichi Oma

Dunnstral (1):

Alchemist21

Wraith

(5):

Ramcius,

Ouroboros

,

Kaede Akamatsu, OnTheMark

, Dunnstral

Kokichi Oma (2):

MariaR

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

MariaR

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Impossibear

2.12

wilky (1):

punreader

Ramcius (2):

wilky,

projectmatt

punreader

(2):

davesaz, Alchemist21

davesaz (1):

Kokichi Oma

Wraith

(9):

Ramcius,

Ouroboros

,

Kaede Akamatsu, OnTheMark

, Dunnstral,

Wraith

, Ankamius, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

Impossibear

Kokichi Oma (1):

MariaR

3.01

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (3):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma

projectmatt

(2):

Ramcius, Dunnstral

Ramcius (1):

Ankamius

Not Voting:

punreader

, wilky,

projectmatt

, davesaz, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

3.02

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (4):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

projectmatt

(2):

Ramcius, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Ramcius (1):

Ankamius

MariaR

(1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Alchemist21 (1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

punreader

, davesaz,

Kaede Akamatsu

3.03

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (4):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

projectmatt

(3):

Ramcius, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

punreader

Ramcius (1):

Ankamius

MariaR

(1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Alchemist21 (1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

davesaz,

Kaede Akamatsu

3.04

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (3):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma, davesaz

projectmatt

(6):

Ramcius, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, Dunnstral,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

Kaede Akamatsu

Ramcius (2):

Ankamius,

projectmatt

MariaR (1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Not Voting:

davesaz

3.05

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (3):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma, davesaz

projectmatt

(6):

Ramcius,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

MariaR

, wilky

Ramcius (2):

Ankamius,

projectmatt

davesaz (1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Not Voting:

davesaz, Dunnstral, Alchemist21

3.06

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (2):

OnTheMark

, davesaz

projectmatt

(6):

Ramcius,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

MariaR

, wilky,

Kaede Akamatsu

Ramcius (2):

projectmatt

, Dunnstral

davesaz (3):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, Kokichi Oma, Ankamius

Not Voting:

davesaz, Alchemist21

3.07

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (1):

OnTheMark

projectmatt

(8):

Ramcius,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

MariaR

, wilky,

Kaede Akamatsu

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, davesaz

Ramcius (2):

projectmatt

, Dunnstral

davesaz (2):

Kokichi Oma, Ankamius

Not Voting:

davesaz, Alchemist21

This contains useful data and I will explain momentarily.

[Punreader]

Hmm, can you ignore that? There was something I forgot to do.

VC 1.01

Ventriloquist

(2):

davesaz,

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ouroboros

(1):

Alchemist21
[b

]Nero Cain/projectmatt

(1):[/b]

Impossibear

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma

Kaede Akamatsu

(1):

Dunnstral

MariaR

(1):

Ramcius/YT2980

davesaz (1):

wilky

wilky (5):

Ouroboros

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

, Ankamius

Not Voting:

Wraith

,

Tchill13/punreader

,

Ventriloquist

,

Nero Cain/projectmatt

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

VC 1.02

Tchill13/punreader

(3):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma,

Impossibear

, davesaz

Kaede Akamatsu

(1):

Dunnstral

davesaz (1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

wilky (4):

Kaede Akamatsu

,

MariaR

, Ankamius,

Tchill13/punreader

Ankamius (1):

Alchemist21

Ouroboros

(1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Ramcius/YT2980 (4):

wilky,

Ouroboros

,

ManWithNoName

,

hebichan/OnTheMark

Not Voting:

Wraith

,

Ventriloquist

, Ramcius/YT2980

VC 1.03

Tchill13/punreader

(4):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma,

Impossibear

, davesaz,

Wraith

wilky (1):

Tchill13/punreader

Ouroboros

(1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Ramcius/YT2980 (3):

wilky,

Ventriloquist

, Alchemist21

Nero Cain/projectmatt

(2):

Dunnstral,

MariaR

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(2):

Ouroboros

,

hebichan/OnTheMark

verylazy/Kokichi Oma (1):

Kaede Akamatsu

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (1):

ManWithNoName

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ankamius

Not Voting:

Ramcius/YT2980

VC 1.04

Tchill13/punreader

(2):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma, davesaz

wilky (1):

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (3):

wilky,

Ventriloquist

, Alchemist21

Nero Cain/projectmatt

(2):

Dunnstral, Ramcius/YT2980

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(6):

Ouroboros

,

hebichan/OnTheMark

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

verylazy/Kokichi Oma (1):

Kaede Akamatsu

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ankamius

Wraith

(1):

Impossibear

VC 1.05

Tchill13/punreader

(2):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma, davesaz

wilky (1):

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky,

Ventriloquist

Nero Cain/projectmatt

(2):

Dunnstral, Ramcius/YT2980

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(6):

Ouroboros

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

, Alchemist21

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ankamius

Wraith

(2):

Impossibear

,

Kaede Akamatsu

Not Voting:

hebichan/OnTheMark

VC 1.06

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma

wilky (1):

Ramcius/YT2980

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

wilky

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(8):

Ouroboros

,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz,

Tchill13/punreader

ManWithNoName

(2):

Ankamius,

Ventriloquist

Wraith

(1):

Impossibear

Impossibear

(1):

Dunnstral

davesaz (1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

verylazy/Kokichi Oma (1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

VC 1.07

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma

wilky (1):

Ramcius/YT2980

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(10):

Ouroboros

,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz,

Tchill13/punreader

, wilky, Ankamius

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ventriloquist

Wraith

(1):

Impossibear

Impossibear

(1):

Dunnstral

davesaz (1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

verylazy/Kokichi Oma (1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

VC 2.01

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

Ouroboros

Kokichi Oma (2):

Dunnstral, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Ankamius (2):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Wraith

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

wilky (2):

MariaR

,

Impossibear

Not Voting:

Tchill13/punreader

, Kokichi Oma, wilky,

Nero Cain/projectmatt

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz

2.01

wilky (3):

MariaR

,

Ouroboros

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

Kokichi Oma (2):

Dunnstral

Ankamius (1):

Ramcius/YT2980

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

wilky

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Tchill13/punreader

, Kokichi Oma,

Nero Cain/projectmatt

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz,

Impossibear

2.02

wilky (3):

MariaR

,

Ouroboros

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

Kokichi Oma (2):

Dunnstral

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (3):

wilky, Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Tchill13/punreader

, Kokichi Oma,

Nero Cain/projectmatt

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz

2.02

wilky (3):

MariaR

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

Tchill13/punreader

Dunnstral (1):

Ankamius

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (4):

wilky, Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

, Dunnstral

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz,

Ouroboros

2.03

wilky (3):

MariaR

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

Tchill13/punreader

Dunnstral (1):

Ankamius

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (6):

wilky, Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

, Dunnstral,

projectmatt

, Kokichi Oma

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

Wraith

Ouroboros

(1):

Kaede Akamatsu

Not Voting:

Alchemist21, davesaz,

Ouroboros

2.04

wilky (2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13/punreader

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (5):

wilky, Dunnstral,

projectmatt

, Kokichi Oma, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Tchill13/punreader

(3):

Wraith

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

Impossibear

Kokichi Oma (2):

Ouroboros

, Ankamius

Not Voting:

Alchemist21, davesaz, Ramcius/YT2980

2.05

wilky (2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (3):

wilky, Dunnstral,

projectmatt

Tchill13/punreader

(5):

Wraith, Kaede Akamatsu, Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Kokichi Oma (2):

Ankamius,

OnTheMark

Wraith

(1):

Ouroboros

Not Voting:

Alchemist21, davesaz, Ramcius/YT2980

2.06

wilky (2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky,

projectmatt

Tchill13/punreader

(8):

Wraith

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

OnTheMark

, Ankamius, Dunnstral

Ankamius (1):

Ouroboros

Not Voting:

Alchemist21, davesaz, Ramcius/YT2980

2.07

wilky (2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

wilky

Tchill13/punreader

(2):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, davesaz

davesaz (4):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma,

Kaede Akamatsu, Wraith

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

projectmatt

OnTheMark (1):

Ouroboros

Wraith

(1):

Ramcius/YT2980

projectmatt

(1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

Alchemist21,

Impossibear

2.09

wilky (1):

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky, Ankamius

Tchill13/punreader

(3):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, davesaz,

MariaR

davesaz (3):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma,

Wraith

Dunnstral (2):

projectmatt

, Alchemist21

OnTheMark

(1):

Ouroboros

Wraith

(1):

Ramcius/YT2980

projectmatt

(1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

Impossibear, Kaede Akamatsu

2.10

wilky (1):

punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (3):

wilky, Ankamius,

projectmatt

punreader

(1):

davesaz

davesaz (1):

Kokichi Oma

Dunnstral (1):

Alchemist21

Wraith

(5):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Ouroboros

,

Kaede Akamatsu, OnTheMark

, Dunnstral

Kokichi Oma (2):

MariaR

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

MariaR

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Impossibear

2.12

wilky (1):

punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky,

projectmatt

punreader

(2):

davesaz, Alchemist21

davesaz (1):

Kokichi Oma

Wraith

(9):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Ouroboros

,

Kaede Akamatsu, OnTheMark

, Dunnstral,

Wraith

, Ankamius, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

Impossibear

Kokichi Oma (1):

MariaR

3.01

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (3):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma

projectmatt

(2):

Ramcius/YT2980, Dunnstral

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

Ankamius

Not Voting:

punreader

, wilky,

projectmatt

, davesaz, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

3.02

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (4):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

projectmatt

(2):

Ramcius/YT2980, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

Ankamius

MariaR

(1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Alchemist21 (1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

punreader

, davesaz,

Kaede Akamatsu

3.03

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (4):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

projectmatt

(3):

Ramcius/YT2980, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

Ankamius

MariaR

(1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Alchemist21 (1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

davesaz,

Kaede Akamatsu

3.04

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (3):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma, davesaz

projectmatt

(6):

Ramcius/YT2980, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, Dunnstral,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

Kaede Akamatsu

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

Ankamius,

projectmatt

MariaR (1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Not Voting:

davesaz

3.05

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (3):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma, davesaz

projectmatt

(6):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

MariaR

, wilky

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

Ankamius,

projectmatt

davesaz (1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Not Voting:

davesaz, Dunnstral, Alchemist21

3.06

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (2):

OnTheMark

, davesaz

projectmatt

(6):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

MariaR

, wilky,

Kaede Akamatsu

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

projectmatt

, Dunnstral

davesaz (3):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, Kokichi Oma, Ankamius

Not Voting:

davesaz, Alchemist21

3.07

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (1):

OnTheMark

projectmatt

(8):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

MariaR

, wilky,

Kaede Akamatsu

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, davesaz

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

projectmatt

, Dunnstral

davesaz (2):

Kokichi Oma, Ankamius

Not Voting:

davesaz, Alchemist21

This contains useful data and I will explain momentarily.

[Punreader]

Apologies this took longer than intended.

But here is what I found.

Not Voting:

Ramcius/YT2980[/area]

VC 1.04

Tchill13/punreader

(2):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma, davesaz

wilky (1):

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (3):

wilky,

Ventriloquist

, Alchemist21

Nero Cain/projectmatt

(2):

Dunnstral, Ramcius/YT2980

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(6):

Ouroboros

,

hebichan/OnTheMark

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

verylazy/Kokichi Oma (1):

Kaede Akamatsu

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ankamius

Wraith

(1):

Impossibear

VC 1.05

Tchill13/punreader

(2):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma, davesaz

wilky (1):

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky,

Ventriloquist

Nero Cain/projectmatt

(2):

Dunnstral, Ramcius/YT2980

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(6):

Ouroboros

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

, Alchemist21

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ankamius

Wraith

(2):

Impossibear

,

Kaede Akamatsu

Not Voting:

hebichan/OnTheMark

[/quote] Here, note that at this point, it was fairly likely the pun knew Ventriloquist was going down. MariaR was already committed to the bus. Nero Cain was already committed to defending Ventriloquist and opposing MariaR. (Nero's slot and MariaR have been on opposite ends the entire game you may note.)

This is important because if the pun knew that Ventriloquist was going down, you can reasonably infer that the pun wouldn't want to act in two particular ways. The pun would not try to counterwagon town (that would condemn them), which you can see evidence of in there not being any strong counterwagons on town. Yet there is another trait doubtful from pun.

If the pun knew Ventrilioquist was the lynch, then they would get town credit from going onto Ventriloquist.

They would

not

get town credit from bussing a

different

punbuddy, especially not if said punbuddy was planned to survive.

This is key because both Dunnstral and Ramicus voted for Nero Cain as the Ventriloquist wagon gained steam. If Ventriloquist was the pun player the pun wanted to sacrifice, why would the pun risk sacrificing a far more important pun player?

It is not definitive, but it

is

indicative.

VC 1.07

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma

wilky (1):

Ramcius/YT2980

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(10):

Ouroboros

,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz,

Tchill13/punreader

, wilky, Ankamius

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ventriloquist

Wraith

(1):

Impossibear

Impossibear

(1):

Dunnstral

davesaz (1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

verylazy/Kokichi Oma (1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

I would once more like to reiterate. There is zero counterwagons here even remotely. Every vote off the wagon is vanity. From this, you have further evidence that the pun wanted or at least were letting Ventriloquist die. Regardless of which, this gives credence to pun on the wagon. Alchemist, davesaz, wilky, and Ankamius are the possibilities.

By far the most likely is davesaz.

2.02

wilky (3):

MariaR

,

Ouroboros

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

Kokichi Oma (2):

Dunnstral

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (3):

wilky, Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Tchill13/punreader

, Kokichi Oma,

Nero Cain/projectmatt

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz

2.02

wilky (3):

MariaR

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

Tchill13/punreader

Dunnstral (1):

Ankamius

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (4):

wilky, Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

, Dunnstral

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz,

Ouroboros

2.03

wilky (3):

MariaR

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

Tchill13/punreader

Dunnstral (1):

Ankamius

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (6):

wilky, Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

, Dunnstral,

projectmatt

, Kokichi Oma

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

Wraith

Ouroboros

(1):

Kaede Akamatsu

Not Voting:

Alchemist21, davesaz,

Ouroboros

This provides evidence both for wilky and Ramicus being town.
MariaR was on wilky.
projectmatt was on Ramicus.

This is the hallmark of dueling town wagons; because both lynches were on town, the pun didn't care which got lynched.

2.06

wilky (2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky,

projectmatt

Tchill13/punreader

(8):

Wraith

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

OnTheMark

, Ankamius, Dunnstral

Ankamius (1):

Ouroboros

Not Voting:

Alchemist21, davesaz, Ramcius/YT2980

I believe this to be an all-town wagon. The evidence can be seen in MariaR and projectmatt, the known pun, being off the wagon. If two flipped pun are off of the wagon, why not a third? This would make the third be in the players not voting. We've established it's not Ramicus, so the options there are Alchemist21 or davesaz.

2.07

wilky (2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

wilky

Tchill13/punreader

(2):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, davesaz

davesaz (4):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma,

Kaede Akamatsu, Wraith

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

projectmatt

OnTheMark (1):

Ouroboros

Wraith

(1):

Ramcius/YT2980

projectmatt

(1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

Alchemist21,

Impossibear

A davesaz wagon forms, all but one name on which has flipped town. How does MariaR, the flipped pun, react to davesaz being wagoned?

2.09

wilky (1):

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky, Ankamius

Tchill13/punreader

(3):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, davesaz,

MariaR

davesaz (3):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma,

Wraith

Dunnstral (2):

projectmatt

, Alchemist21

OnTheMark

(1):

Ouroboros

Wraith

(1):

Ramcius/YT2980

projectmatt

(1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

Impossibear, Kaede Akamatsu

She joins the counterwagon to davesaz. She didn't vote my slot when my slot was at eight votes, yet once davesaz's life was in danger, she tried to restart the wagon on my slot.

2.12

wilky (1):

punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky,

projectmatt

punreader

(2):

davesaz, Alchemist21

davesaz (1):

Kokichi Oma

Wraith

(9):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Ouroboros

,

Kaede Akamatsu, OnTheMark

, Dunnstral,

Wraith

, Ankamius, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

Impossibear

Kokichi Oma (1):

MariaR

We already know that two pun were off this lynch wagon and were actually white knighting Wraith with defenses which reeked of TMI. Since there were two, again, why not three?

wilky has a reason to be cleared, but Kokichi Oma, Alchemist21, and davesaz possess no such an alibi.

3.01

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (3):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma

projectmatt

(2):

Ramcius/YT2980, Dunnstral

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

Ankamius

Not Voting:

punreader

, wilky,

projectmatt

, davesaz, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

3.02

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (4):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

projectmatt

(2):

Ramcius/YT2980, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

Ankamius

MariaR

(1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Alchemist21 (1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

punreader

, davesaz,

Kaede Akamatsu

3.03

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (4):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

projectmatt

(3):

Ramcius/YT2980, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

Ankamius

MariaR

(1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Alchemist21 (1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

davesaz,

Kaede Akamatsu

3.04

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (3):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma, davesaz

projectmatt

(6):

Ramcius/YT2980, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, Dunnstral,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

Kaede Akamatsu

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

Ankamius,

projectmatt

MariaR (1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Not Voting:

davesaz

I would like to point out: projectmatt was attacking both REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE and Ramicus; Ramicus and REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE were both attacking projectmatt. Is this some sort of elaborate cross-bus, or are REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE and Ramicus just town attacking pun? I find the latter far simpler and more elegant.

Also noteworthy: projectmatt was being wagoned, but was not yet condemned. Kokichi Oma and davesaz were both on the counterwagon to projectmatt, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE.

It is only at the very end, after I hounded on him, that we eventually get:

3.07

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (1):

OnTheMark

projectmatt

(8):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

MariaR

, wilky,

Kaede Akamatsu

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, davesaz

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

projectmatt

, Dunnstral

davesaz (2):

Kokichi Oma, Ankamius

Not Voting:

davesaz, Alchemist21

davesaz hammering, but only after being backed into a corner. (In part because he was a counterwagon.)

Strongest data points/summary in next post.

[Punreader]

Spoiler: VCA

VC 1.04

Tchill13/punreader

(2):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma, davesaz

wilky (1):

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (3):

wilky,

Ventriloquist

, Alchemist21

Nero Cain/projectmatt

(2):

Dunnstral, Ramcius/YT2980

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(6):

Ouroboros

,

hebichan/OnTheMark

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

verylazy/Kokichi Oma (1):

Kaede Akamatsu

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ankamius

Wraith

(1):

Impossibear

VC 1.05

Tchill13/punreader

(2):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma, davesaz

wilky (1):

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky,

Ventriloquist

Nero Cain/projectmatt

(2):

Dunnstral, Ramcius/YT2980

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(6):

Ouroboros

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

, Alchemist21

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ankamius

Wraith

(2):

Impossibear

,

Kaede Akamatsu

Not Voting:

hebichan/OnTheMark

Here, note that at this point, it was fairly likely the pun knew Ventriloquist was going down. MariaR was already committed to the bus. Nero Cain was already committed to defending Ventriloquist and opposing MariaR. (Nero's slot and MariaR have been on opposite ends the entire game you may note.)

This is important because if the pun knew that Ventriloquist was going down, you can reasonably infer that the pun wouldn't want to act in two particular ways. The pun would not try to counterwagon town (that would condemn them), which you can see evidence of in there not being any strong counterwagons on town. Yet there is another trait doubtful from pun.

If the pun knew Ventrilioquist was the lynch, then they would get town credit from going onto Ventriloquist.

They would

not

get town credit from bussing a

different

punbuddy, especially not if said punbuddy was planned to survive.

This is key because both Dunnstral and Ramicus voted for Nero Cain as the Ventriloquist wagon gained steam. If Ventriloquist was the pun player the pun wanted to sacrifice, why would the pun risk sacrificing a far more important pun player?

It is not definitive, but it

is

indicative.

VC 1.07

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma

wilky (1):

Ramcius/YT2980

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(10):

Ouroboros

,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz,

Tchill13/punreader

, wilky, Ankamius

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ventriloquist

Wraith

(1):

Impossibear

Impossibear

(1):

Dunnstral

davesaz (1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

verylazy/Kokichi Oma (1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

I would once more like to reiterate. There is zero counterwagons here even remotely. Every vote off the wagon is vanity. From this, you have further evidence that the pun wanted or at least were letting Ventriloquist die. Regardless of which, this gives credence to pun on the wagon. Alchemist, davesaz, wilky, and Ankamius are the possibilities.

By far the most likely is davesaz.

2.02

wilky (3):

MariaR

,

Ouroboros

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

Kokichi Oma (2):

Dunnstral

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (3):

wilky, Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Tchill13/punreader

, Kokichi Oma,

Nero Cain/projectmatt

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz

2.02

wilky (3):

MariaR

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

Tchill13/punreader

Dunnstral (1):

Ankamius

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (4):

wilky, Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

, Dunnstral

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz,

Ouroboros

2.03

wilky (3):

MariaR

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

Tchill13/punreader

Dunnstral (1):

Ankamius

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (6):

wilky, Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

, Dunnstral,

projectmatt

, Kokichi Oma

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

Wraith

Ouroboros

(1):

Kaede Akamatsu

Not Voting:

Alchemist21, davesaz,

Ouroboros

This provides evidence both for wilky and Ramicus being town.
MariaR was on wilky.
projectmatt was on Ramicus.

This is the hallmark of dueling town wagons; because both lynches were on town, the pun didn't care which got lynched.

2.06

wilky (2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky,

projectmatt

Tchill13/punreader

(8):

Wraith

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

OnTheMark

, Ankamius, Dunnstral

Ankamius (1):

Ouroboros

Not Voting:

Alchemist21, davesaz, Ramcius/YT2980

I believe this to be an all-town wagon. The evidence can be seen in MariaR and projectmatt, the known pun, being off the wagon. If two flipped pun are off of the wagon, why not a third? This would make the third be in the players not voting. We've established it's not Ramicus, so the options there are Alchemist21 or davesaz.

2.07

wilky (2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

wilky

Tchill13/punreader

(2):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, davesaz

davesaz (4):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma,

Kaede Akamatsu, Wraith

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

projectmatt

OnTheMark (1):

Ouroboros

Wraith

(1):

Ramcius/YT2980

projectmatt

(1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

Alchemist21,

Impossibear

A davesaz wagon forms, all but one name on which has flipped town. How does MariaR, the flipped pun, react to davesaz being wagoned?

2.09

wilky (1):

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky, Ankamius

Tchill13/punreader

(3):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, davesaz,

MariaR

davesaz (3):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma,

Wraith

Dunnstral (2):

projectmatt

, Alchemist21

OnTheMark

(1):

Ouroboros

Wraith

(1):

Ramcius/YT2980

projectmatt

(1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

Impossibear, Kaede Akamatsu

She joins the counterwagon to davesaz. She didn't vote my slot when my slot was at eight votes, yet once davesaz's life was in danger, she tried to restart the wagon on my slot.

2.12

wilky (1):

punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky,

projectmatt

punreader

(2):

davesaz, Alchemist21

davesaz (1):

Kokichi Oma

Wraith

(9):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Ouroboros

,

Kaede Akamatsu, OnTheMark

, Dunnstral,

Wraith

, Ankamius, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

Impossibear

Kokichi Oma (1):

MariaR

We already know that two pun were off this lynch wagon and were actually white knighting Wraith with defenses which reeked of TMI. Since there were two, again, why not three?

wilky has a reason to be cleared, but Kokichi Oma, Alchemist21, and davesaz possess no such an alibi.

3.01

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (3):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma

projectmatt

(2):

Ramcius/YT2980, Dunnstral

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

Ankamius

Not Voting:

punreader

, wilky,

projectmatt

, davesaz, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

3.02

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (4):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

projectmatt

(2):

Ramcius/YT2980, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

Ankamius

MariaR

(1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Alchemist21 (1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

punreader

, davesaz,

Kaede Akamatsu

3.03

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (4):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

projectmatt

(3):

Ramcius/YT2980, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE,

punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

Ankamius

MariaR

(1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Alchemist21 (1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

davesaz,

Kaede Akamatsu

3.04

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (3):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma, davesaz

projectmatt

(6):

Ramcius/YT2980, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, Dunnstral,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

Kaede Akamatsu

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

Ankamius,

projectmatt

MariaR (1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Not Voting:

davesaz

I would like to point out: projectmatt was attacking both REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE and Ramicus; Ramicus and REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE were both attacking projectmatt. Is this some sort of elaborate cross-bus, or are REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE and Ramicus just town attacking pun? I find the latter far simpler and more elegant.

Also noteworthy: projectmatt was being wagoned, but was not yet condemned. Kokichi Oma and davesaz were both on the counterwagon to projectmatt, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE.

It is only at the very end, after I hounded on him, that we eventually get:

3.07

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (1):

OnTheMark

projectmatt

(8):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

MariaR

, wilky,

Kaede Akamatsu

, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, davesaz

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

projectmatt

, Dunnstral

davesaz (2):

Kokichi Oma, Ankamius

Not Voting:

davesaz, Alchemist21

davesaz hammering, but only after being backed into a corner. (In part because he was a counterwagon.)

Strongest data points/summary in next post.

In summary:

• There is strong evidence supporting Ramcius/YT2980 as town.
  
• There is reasonable evidence supporting wilky as town.
  
• There is some evidence supporting Dunnstral as town.
  
• There is some evidence supporting REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE as town.
  
• There is potential, but not definitive, evidence which
  may
  indicate Kokichi Oma is town. He's mostly net-neutral for VCA however.
  
• Ankamius is a net-neutral slot for VCA; she is neither helped nor hindered by it.
  
• There is some evidence supporting Alchemist21 as pun.
  
• There is strong evidence supporting davesaz as pun.

I am telling you all.

I will work on contingency plans which account for a davesaz flip because planning for such things is always a good thing, but I will not vote anyone other than him because he is simply our last pun.

[Punreader]

At this point, I'd go davesaz > Alchemist21 > third not yet decided because hopefully the first wins or if not the second wins, but potentially Kokichi Oma.

I refuse to lynch Ramicus/YT2980.
I refuse to lynch wilky.
I strongly prefer to not lynch Dunnstral, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, or Ankamius.

So there aren't many options.

[Punreader]

So i suppose you have a good explanation as to why would MariaR tell the truth about matt visiting no one, and instead together with her scumpartner dave not lie and say who matt visited? They should've known that already.

The thing you don't realize is that lying EITHER: sacrifices projectmatt if projectmatt's N2 visit is a punclaim of a target, OR: is an all-or-nothing gambit if they outright lie about his target.

If one member of the team were lynched, they would

all

get lynched.

So why would they lie?

There's no way that they could get away with it. All three slots were heavily suspected; lying about their role wouldn't give them the needed towncred to avert the inevitable.

[Punreader]

Don't be stupid, if you mislynch me you lost the opportunity to mechanically determine Maria.

I agree with this logic, but I disagree with the delivery.

That's not like you, Dave.

[/spoiler]

You're on the wrong account, and I've been awake for maybe 10 minutes?
But I'm not sure why you think it isn't like me.

You're not usually mean.

If both of the neighbors is town and the 2nd one is outed, scum kills one of them and then tries to frame the remaining one as a natural result of point 1.

No. They become null and read by play.

Why do you not want to get the most utility from the neighborhood as possible?

I don't think the miller really needs to be talked on and should just focus on the play of said miller. It can be a fake claim but that doesn't mean it's a scum fake claim either. Just focus on day play and if something comes up we can talk about it.

I would rather wilky claim first myself because his whole way of going at it gives me bad vibes that I can't really explain compared to dave

I think Dave can only really be scum if Maria is.

The other problem I have with the maria slot is the fact that as soon as RC recruited them into the hood, they stopped contributing altogether and have been attempting to coast on RC's townread.

PLUS the sketchiness re: the neighborhood itself:
- pmatt flipping with a night action condemns the hood, and confirms that at least one or both are scum.
- pmatt flipping with no night action at least confirms that the result was accurate.
- if maria is town, there is absolutely no reason she should not want this. "protecting" the other neighbor is nonsense at this point and serves no purpose.
- if maria is scum, there is every reason to withhold the name of the neighbor, if there even IS another neighbor, because they want to see who we shoot, so they can claim the proper partner to be the supposed neighbor. requiring maria to reveal the neighbor locks her and the neighbor into a commited claim, and allows the lynch flip and night actions to reveal whether they are lying or not. <<<< if maria is town, this should be very desirable. if maria is scum, she is going to try to avoid this at all costs.

PLUS the fake-AF "scout" bs that hs never not once been explained or discussed.

There's obviously a chance she or both could be town and we can prove it. That is exceptionally high utility for town. This is another reason she should claim who the supposed other neighbor is, because should she or the neighbor die, it still allows us to use the surviving member in PoE to narrow the pool if they are town. The only reason one of them would die is if scum is afraid of the neighborhood becoming a masonry, which they cannot avoid even by killing either of them.

Sample of posts which can show why Impossibear died beyond role.

They suspected not only Maria, but also davesaz.

VOTE: Davesaz

1/2 of
Wilky
Davesaz
is town, the other is probably scum

I'm going to see where Anony stands on davesaz/tchill and maybe we'll just vote one of them, idk. I have bad feeling sabout Ramcius wagon. PJM still probscum though?

Sample of posts which can show why Ouroboros died beyond role. davesaz was in their lynch pool.

That’s why rc had to be killed obv... and impossibear must have been n1 attempt. If Maria town then otm scum qed.

Petit no the result is for before. New member does not vote on that night target.

No this is not a thing. Lol

Dave and Jungle fuck :/

Best plan is to lynch Dave. Confirm if a doc exists that saved the D1 kill or not. Then can go from there.

VOTE: Davesaz
I kinda think it's Dave and if it's not then it is worth the confirmation of a town doc existing and then being able to save themselves and Kaede each night.

Sample of posts which can show why OnTheMark died beyond role. davesaz was his preferred lynch for basically the majority of the game.

Every player who has been nightkilled has held suspicion of davesaz.

I do not consider that coincidence.

[Punreader]

onthemark i dont think youre mafia anymore, but i dont understand why youre insistent that dave -has- to be lynched today. your argument against him is inconclusive, and sure, it hints at him being a possible mafia, but do you actually scumread dave's lines?

ok but that's subjective
so when you say shit like:

However you do have to be scum not to vote Dave in this situation.

it destroys any credibility that you have

Pls can all the town players who think their reads are better than mine line up how many of you are there!

Add Dunnstral too. Dave RC projectmatt and Dunnstral. Yes this leaves out Kokichi but I am gonna trust Kaede on that one

this is

such

a bad read list

hmm i sure wonder if onthemark insisting that dave is the only possible lynch today is going to further stifle conversation/natural scumhunting and force people to argue about mechanics just like the quest did

There are no other options.

this is not true

You may not have played with me or are feigning ignorance. I am making this simple. We’re lynching Dave.

says who

sure, we can absolutely combine mechanics and scumhunting

my issue with this game in particular is that we're favoring mechanics to the extent where scumhunting is being stifled.

a good example of this is you saying that anyone who doesn't vote dave is mafia. by doing that, you're literally holding the entire playerlist hostage by making them stick to the mechanics and not, you know, actual scumhunting.

In fact, I would argue that a huge part of the reason the day hasn't ended yet is because I actively challenged the Dave lynch.

daveas is null-leaning town. i don't think they've particularly towntold a lot, but the aggressive pushing on them paired with any lack of case really makes me feel like their lynched was an attempt by scum to divert from lynching the actual mafia.
null-leaning town: wilky, dave.

Sample of posts where projectmatt defends dave, in spite of not having much of a read on him.

He went out of his way to stop a lynch on davesaz, when he had a read that was like that?

[Punreader]

Don't be stupid, if you mislynch me you lost the opportunity to mechanically determine Maria.

^^^^

Finally some god dam interaction up in here.
Pedit: It's not as black and white as you're presenting it to be Math

Yes. It is. There is no other protective or they would claim. If another protective exists it is scum. Too much power rule. Since there is no other town protective then it’s literally scum shot ETL or Dave did the kill.
That is it.

I don't see dave's play as scummy or the type of player to fake claim miller he's very laid back with his play and drawing a light to himself with the miller claim is very ? I don't get why he'd do that. I don't want to throw my dave tr out the window when we don't have all the facts in play and just lynching dave is the easy play

I didn't think you were seriously asking me "have you read the last 20 pages" because it's such a stupid question with an obvious answer if you checked my posts.
You should also be able to see who I want lynched by my reads list. I want to lynch Tchi atm

Even despite my block?

There is a lack of mafia kill and you claim to block dave. If I felt dave was scummy I would hop on but I don't think he

is.

A lot of factors can go into why the mafia kill isn't present and just trying to say it's Dave because of a RB doesn't do it to me. I understand how you can see it as a guilty but factors like protectives other role blocks mafia wifom etc etc are stuff that go into this I don't sr dave enough to just hop on to that.

Mark let me see if I get this
there was a death and you think dave is role blocked scum?

Wilky Needs to die tomorrow
OTM Townish
Kaede Akamatsu Needs to be ignored
MariaR Town
Wraith Towny
Ramcius Scummy
Ankamius Town
Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells) Town
Tchill13 Scum
Dunnstral Town
verylazy/Kokichi Oma Scummy
Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle) Town

davesaz Towny

Alchemist21 Towny
Nero Cain/projectmatt Scummy
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE Prob poe scum

I shouldn't have to keep repeating myself. We should be lynching Tchi today and Wilky tomorrow there is no "guilty" on dave because of a roleblock

I would rather wilky claim first myself because his whole way of going at it gives me bad vibes that I can't really explain compared to dave

Sample of Maria's davesaz defense across the whole game.

While it is possible that would be whiteknighting, it looks quite like defense of a punbuddy.

[Punreader]

So let's review.
We have VCA which indicates davesaz is pun.
We have NKA which indicates davesaz is pun.
We have interactions with the flipped pun which indicate davesaz is pun.
We have a soft-mechanical-guilty on davesaz which indicates there's a 50% chance davesaz is pun.
We have a failed attempt to false-clear davesaz using mechanics which likely originates from pun trying to clear him.
And then there was the case I wrote against him ages ago. He responded to some of it, but I never got around to showing all the items he failed to address.

Shall I?

Because it really is that simple.

Plan all you want. Make contingencies until deadline for all I care. Set up backup plans. Smart play, in case we're wrong. But davesaz is the lynch today and he will flip pun, because we're

not

.

[Punreader]

Except if Dave was scum MariaR wouldn't have been outted from the visit

That again assumes the pun lie about the results they got.

If they lie about the results by outlining projectmatt's actual target, they are in all probability sacrificing projectmatt's life, since his N2 action we can be assured was a punclaim in of itself. This sacrifices projectmatt altogether. There is evidence the pun were trying to not do this D3, present regardless of who the last pun member would be. If the pun didn't want projectmatt dead, then they would not do this.

If they lie about the results by giving projectmatt a more "town" target, they are taking an all-or-nothing gamble. One member dead exposes them all as liars. projectmatt dies, the jig is up and both dave and MariaR are outted as confscum. MariaR dies, the jig is up because as a pun member of the tracking neighborhood her flip reveals that they should have received a no result; davesaz is outted as pun and projectmatt is likely soon to follow.

davesaz's death is the only one which wouldn't immediately condemn them all, if the knowledge that davesaz was not in the neighborhood until after the result came to light. However, prior to this information having come out, his pun flip

would

lead players to believe MariaR was outted as confscum, and from there projectmatt is soon to follow.

And again, all three slots were under heavy suspicion. So this all-or-nothing gambit was incredibly likely to backfire; it thus is no surprise they did not take it.

dave being pun doesn't change that claiming a no visit was the only possible course of action on D3.

[Punreader]

Pun’s VCA assumes scum are all doing the same thing. “If 2, why not 3” was used more than once and it’s based on a flawed assumption imo.

And this is a terrible misrep of the VCA. I used it precisely twice; there were far more points than that I raised in the VCA.

[Punreader]

Pun’s VCA assumes scum are all doing the same thing. “If 2, why not 3” was used more than once and it’s based on a flawed assumption imo.

And this is a terrible misrep of the VCA. I used it precisely twice; there were far more points than that I raised in the VCA.

????
Sorry but alchemist's point is a very fair one, the points where you said "if 2, why not 3" fit your theory of davesaz and/or alchemist scum, when in reality when do scum ever all do the same thing in regards to voting.

Alchemist is using

one point

I made twice in the VCA to dismiss

all of

the VCA as flawed.

That is what I mean by him making a terrible misrep of the VCA.

I could go into the theory of all-town lynches and why they do happen on occasion and why I felt that this was particularly likely to be the case (in fact, I can cite none other than RadiantCowbells from this very game for why the Wraith wagon in particular was likely to be all-town), if I were in a more argumentative mood and wanted to defend that point in the VCA.

But while I could do that, that's not my issue. Alchemist21 wrote off the VCA as invalid because of that one point I used twice, when the VCA used far more than that one point.

[Punreader]

This is scum making a valiant last ditch effort to mislynch someone, anyone.

Your post sure is!

[Punreader]

the main issue for me is that other than you, all the loud voices are dead

I beg your pardon, madam, but I would say quantity of posts is not the only factor in volume of voice; I thus argue I more than qualify as a loud voice, albeit one with a fairly good reason to justify why I am alive. (Namely, that I can't die.)

People dont want to cooperate with conf town by helping me figure out stuff.

I have presented a case from every angle on why davesaz is pun; I have presented cases on multiple players (wilky, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, etc.) for why they are town. I walked through my process and how I got there and provided my reasons for why I don't feel the davesaz defense holds. There isn't much more than that I can do to help you figure it out because I've given all the pertinent information.

I've given you how the pun have interacted this game, and shown you what they have been proven to do and what the situation they were in was like and how they were likely to have treated this, citing evidence from their posting.

I've given you how the players I feel are town have strong corroborating evidence to suggest as much.

I've given you the thoughts of the nightkilled players, and how these thoughts offer reasons beyond their role for them to have perished. These thoughts not only implicate davesaz (a common punread to all three nightkilled players), but also can be utilized to demonstrate why some players are more likely to be town (as they are less likely to nightkill those players given their stances).

I've given you the mechanics of the game, why they implicate davesaz in multiple ways, and why the main mechanical reason to "clear" davesaz is actually evidence which implicates him.

There isn't much more I can give you.
Do you want me to explain how it's quite possible the pun strongmanned Impossibear

just

to provide davesaz (who attempted a normal kill that was blocked) a way out of the otherwise-certain guilty on his slot?

Do you want me to explain how davesaz's stances on this day phase have been buddying to you, giving you precisely what you want to hear, because you as conftown are the player he most needs on his side?

I can only show you it from so many different ways. Because the gamesolve

is

davesaz being pun.

[Punreader]

Why should i trust pun's VCA even if he's town.

Because if you knew my main, you would know to trust my VCA. I guarantee it.

Why should i trust your theory of dave being scum.

Because the theory corroborates the existing evidence for the gamestate, given the situation the pun were in and what they would need to do in order to have a path to victory.

Why should i trust dunn's scumread of alchemist.

You shouldn't.

Of course everyone wants to be right, but all I care about is solving this fricking game.

I don't care about being right. But the thing is I

have

solved the game, because all the evidence points to one suspect. I can give you different pieces of evidence. I can give you different angles to approach it from. But they all say the same thing, regardless of which path you take, of what logic you use. The reason they all say this is because it is the actual answer.

davesaz has played like pun the whole game. I can cite his sketchy behavior regarding the miller claim at the beginning of the game, his defense of the flipped pun, hesitance to join the projectmatt wagon (only hammering after severe pressure and when projectmatt was confirmed to be condemned), and his presenting of stances which are catered to you (among other sins).

davesaz has a sketchy claim. He claims to be only a miller, whereas every other power role in the game thusfar is not a standard simple role. To go through the list,

1. Ventriloquist's role of roleswapper is not a simple role.
   
2. Ouroboros's track/neighborhood mechanic was heavily modified.
   
3. projectmatt is the exception demonstrating the rule, as his rolecop is the only role unmodified.
   
4. Impossibear was both a bulletproof and a vigilante, with both aspects modified; the bulletproof had the 1x modifier, and the vig had a penalty for shooting town, a heavy modification from the standard.
   
5. MariaR's role had both a strongman and some sort of investigative power (that I don't fully understand to be honest); said investigative power was in of itself heavily modified.
   
6. MathBlade's role was not just a roleblocker; it had the modification of preceding ALL action resolution, a unique modifier which heavily modified the role.
   
7. Of the living claimed players, you have:
   • My hide, which contains a non-weak modification, which to GuyInFreezer's knowledge was a strong deviation from the normal, making it a heavily modified role.
     
   • Your role is not only an innocent child, but also an action duplicator. Action duplication is a heavily modified aspect to your role.
     
   • REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE has a proven quest effect. If you argue it's faked, that it's a public fruit vend, then that in of itself would be a heavily modified role. If you believe it's real, then this is an absolutely unique mechanic for giving out effects.
     
   • wilky is NOT ONLY a miller, BUT ALSO a slow cop, which in of itself is a heavily modified role, which is put on top of the cop.
     
   • Alchemist21 gives out some sort of inventions, but the inventions aren't standard abilities. (Okay so this role is probably fairly close to normal, but then again I'm not sure Alchemist21 has fullclaimed the exact specifics behind how the role works so it may be modified in some way.)
   Am I missing any, or does my point get across? davesaz's claim is an elephant in the room.

davesaz is heavily implicated by pun interactions. Nero Cain looked like he assumed that with the wilky counterclaim, davesaz was doomed; projectmatt in contrast went out of his way to defend davesaz on numerous different occasions...in spite of claiming to nullread him and later upgrading on zero merit davesaz to a weak townread. Furthermore, MariaR hard-defended davesaz all game.

davesaz's stances in this game can be seen in the votecounts as consistently being on pro-pun options.

The nightkilled players all held suspicion on davesaz. He is the ONLY player all three of them held punreads on, in fact. (Check for yourself!)

davesaz was roleblocked N1 and the pun kill is absent N1. Impossibear's death N3 gives the possibility pun shot Impossibear N1, but MariaR having a 1x strongman indicates that she could have strongman killed Impossibear specifically so that davesaz wouldn't be confscum.

OnTheMark indicated hesitance to block davesaz, making it doubtful (INCREDIBLY doubtful; I can likely explain this to you within a couple of weeks if need be) he would block him overnight. Yes, there were people arguing for him to do so, and telling him that he should, but he never responded to them; his last post indicated he was doubtful.

I know how OnTheMark handles night actions when he hasn't had the chance to respond. He goes with the last thing he posted. (I may be able to reference this trait using this game, but I need to check the timing to confirm.)

I know I'm missing a number of points, because there are simply so many reasons that davesaz is the last pun that it's impossible for me to remember them all in a single post.

[Punreader]

davesaz was roleblocked N1 and the pun kill is absent N1. Impossibear's death N3 gives the possibility pun shot Impossibear N1, but MariaR having a 1x strongman indicates that she could have strongman killed Impossibear specifically so that davesaz wouldn't be confscum.

I'd like to add, the theory of MariaR instead strongmanning Ouroboros is incredibly doubtful at best. If MariaR wanted to strongman RadiantCowbells, she'd have done so N1. For that matter, if she were planning on killing any one particular player in the game, she would have used the strongman N1.

Since we can reasonably infer the pun nightkill N1 was not ManWithNoName, we can reasonably infer the strongman was not utilized N1 (especially given MariaR claimed to use her action on Dunnstral). Given this, it is probable that they intended to save the strongman for as long as possible.

Using it on Impossibear was the best possible time; it is the only way where if davesaz was roleblocked from making the pun kill N1 they could keep him from being confscum,

and

they knew that MariaR was herself confscum as a consequence of projectmatt's flip. They knew that MariaR was going to die and that any unused ability would be lost. This made it the perfect chance to use the strongman on the bulletproof.

[Punreader]

There's no town cohesion here.

There

is

town cohesion, the cohesion is that davesaz is pun. The dead thought he was pun and the living have presented the evidence for why he is pun.

People may get distracted, and pursue shinies. (An example of this? I easily could have gotten distracted and pursued Alchemist21 instead of keeping focus on davesaz.) But at the end of the day, he is by far the best bet for lynching pun and most of the players in the game already know that. Even the players who defend him as town acknowledge he has some rather sketchy aspects to his posting.

[Punreader]

So, if I concluded based on what is presented here, provided I still feel davesaz is town (see below), then I feel RMOJ or wilky are the most likely to have shot OTM last night phase. davesaz, sure enough, has the most content against his case, but as people have thrown out my slot has been lynchbait, and I'm feeling precisely that same way about davesaz based off his play. His play is easy to lynch, which makes it all the more easier for scum to sit back and watch his lynch unfold, while not taking any active part in it. This would buy a scum member/member(s) another day, so it’s an easy plan for them to follow if they are unthreatened. If my theory here is true, and scum is sitting in the background, that would suggest there is only one scum member remaining, and it's either rmoj or wilky.

Your analysis here is critically flawed because you state davesaz is easy to lynch.
So is REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE.
So is wilky.

Being easy to lynch is not a valid metric, because it is not alignment indicative. Pun can be easy to lynch just as easily as town.

You can also note that davesaz is not gamesolving; he

is

sitting back and doing nothing. He's letting Kaede do the defending for him, and the closest he has to content is catering to Kaede's reads.

Ankamius is dead on the mark:

Agree, and the neighborize targets ended up being useful too.

It should be pretty much beyond doubt that if I had been scum with Maria we could have announced OTM's crumbed target and both been cleared. Maria must have thought she could frame me by being the first to reveal the no result. I'm happy that the ramifications of the matt no result swayed enough people to get Maria lynched.

I agree with wanting to hear from JUNGLE before doing much. There is probably a lot of heavy lifting to get remaining scum. Do we think the team is more likely to be 4 or 5? I think it's on the line and could go either way. Possible deep scum here.

We should just lynch dave I guess? I'm not sure. I'll read and decide. Likely one scum left anyway

Only if you're a complete moron.

You know the player this implicates to me?
VOTE: davesaz.

VOTE: punreader

the way this progression happened, mainly

I remember that davesaz' reaction to being suspected for the block thing was a loooooot different than it is here

THIS is pure survivalism

davesaz here isn't coming into this trying to convince people, he's trying to strongarm it

it's a subtle thing, but very real

Yeah i remember davesaz panicking when i wanted to lynch him instead of matt tho. He wanted to be able to mechanically get MariaR

Why is that indicative of town?

projectmatt and MariaR were intricately tied together.
They were both likely to go down, within a day phase or two.

What happens if davesaz gets lynched on D3? Do MariaR and projectmatt magically end up going free?
No, we lynch them, and the pun are wiped out.

davesaz was being set up to be the endgame pun player. He

needed

to survive.

[Punreader]

Man, it took you 4 votes to share that sort of thing?

Yes. Why do you think it took him that long to share, and why do you think he wasn't voting there earlier?

No, you don't get it. People think the's town because of the quests, and for no other reason. That's smart scum play.

Except no. People have said he's PUN for the quests, and for no other reason.

I asked for a REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE case and why he was pun by play.

You refused to give it to me.

On play, he is a townread.

I issued this challenge before, and I'm renewing it. Erase the quests from the game. Read Jungle

strictly on posting

. There is absolutely nothing town about that slot if you remove the quests.

I issued this challenge before, and I'm renewing it. Erase the quests' failures from the game. Read Jungle strictly on posting.

If we look at Jungle

outside the quest info

, what would the read be?

If we look at JUNGLE outside of the quest info, the read would be solidly nulltown; there is nothing indicating pun and yet minor signs indicating town.

You never responded to this.

@Kaede -- quote anything from Jungle that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously town. Anything that is making the slightest effort to solve the game.

Innocent until proven guilty; the burden of proof is on the accuser.

@dave: quote anything from JUNGLE that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously pun. Anything that is making the slightest effort to manipulate the town.

You've not provided this.

Where is the case for JUNGLE being pun on play?

You've stated it's there repeatedly. If so, then you should be able to link to it easily enough!

[Punreader]

if OTM had at least said "FINE ILL BLOCK DAVE" or something before the end of yesterday then you'd be an inno right now barring 2 scum remaining instead of 1. His argument with wanting to block punreader makes that dubious and i have no idea which of the 2 was blocked in the end.

This seems like a nice chance to crossreference posts.

So from here on out I am prod dodging until Dave flips.

Want my reads i Don’t give a fuck

Out with friends I blocked Davesaz.

VOTE: Jungle

A fairly good indicator of what he would do. He did not announce his block, but blocked his largest punread.

I am good at crumbing my targets and you know how I crumb and I have already done it once.

Unless someone alive explicitly claims VT.

I could block there and then have the plan still work.

Jungle wilky pun Alchemist sitting in a tree S-C-U-M-M-I-N-G

Put last things first and first things last and all things can be clear to see

All of them have claimed actions except maybe punreader will have to double check.

@dave already did three times
Four scumreads imho is already too many in this setup. So I don’t want to block outside this core group.

Kaede there is no good option here.

The plan relies on me blocking someone.

The plan relies on me blocking a townread.

Soooo your plan relies on me blocking someone I believe to be town.

What am I supposed to do exactly?

Either way I am antitown.

I can’t block no one that fucks with the plan.

I can’t block a townread as that is by definition the antitown thing you’d be mad at me for

I can’t block a scumread as they have claimed actions.

So I can’t block anyone and must block someone.

What you’re asking is logically impossible.

The plan does not work as written.

Sometimes sacrifices are needed, you need to block a townread, take your stab at the scummiest of your TRs if you must, but if the plan's interfered with we get left with less info.

I would rather announce who I am blocking than block someone I townread. Would that work for you?

So given the choices of you hating my actions for being antitown or you hating my actions for being antitown I pick blocking a scumread every time.

Kaede there is no good option here. The plan relies on me blocking someone. The plan relies on me blocking a townread. Soooo your plan relies on me blocking someone I believe to be town.

What am I supposed to do exactly? Either way I am antitown. I can’t block no one that fucks with the plan. I can’t block a townread as that is by definition the antitown thing you’d be mad at me for

I can’t block a scumread as they have claimed actions. So I can’t block anyone and must block someone. What you’re asking is logically impossible. The plan does not work as written.

I would rather tell you and scum who I am blocking than block a townread.

Plan is shit. Will never submit to not blocking a scumread. Nope. Not happening.

This I would state is a case of ambiguity; OnTheMark was not very clear in any of these later posts who he'd block. However...

Jungle wilky pun Alchemist sitting in a tree S-C-U-M-M-I-N-G

Put last things first and first things last and all things can be clear to see

By his word, we know that he 'crumbed here a block on Alchemist. And he referenced his beliefs later on. He said he was going to do this, and it is what he ended up doing.

I don’t see anything wrong with what you’re saying

Brain gets it. Gut is screaming something is wrong.

Kaede what do you make of Punreader’s plan?

Is it possible Jungle is just derp!Town a long with Dave and punreader is last scum scared of me blocking punreader?

Assuming MariaR is scum how bad would it be if I blocked punreader?

I feel like something is wrong and have no words to explain.

For the record, as our vig is dead, I intend to hide behind davesaz tonight.
I would strongly recommend OnTheMark block davesaz after a MariaR lynch.

Others should action as how they best see fit.

...I kinda have a bad feeling about this.

Kaede ? Like I get it but my gut says no.

That seems like waaaaay too op thought.

Meh I'd rather lynch Dave.
Get Wilky's check tomorrow. I won't block him. I'll null block if I have to. If he lies he's dead.
Lynch Alchemist.
If we still have a game lynch Wilky.

I don't see scum anywhere else.

(This tells us he didn't block wilky, and we know he didn't block JUNGLE.)

Here we can see a lot of ambiguity. However, his thoughts indicated at the end that he was going to block me, and this is what he most likely ended up doing.

There is something I'd want to scout out, however.

Can mafia both kill and action? I'll go see if I can hunt that information down, because if they can't then that'd confirm JUNGLE as town. (That said, I'm expecting they can.)

[Punreader]

MOD: Can the mafia both kill and action?

I can't find that information in the mod's iso, and it's not listed in the mafia's role PMs.

[Punreader]

Also what are people thoughts on conducting a mass claim?

Indifference. It won't hurt but it won't help.

The unclaimed players are Ramcius/YT2980, Ankamius, Dunnstral, and Kokichi Oma (the least-town of the batch); literally every other player has claimed, though Alchemist21 hasn't fullclaimed. Dunnstral is a soft-clear by virtue of having been MariaR's N1 target (as she wouldn't have targeted her own teammate with her investigative, by my knowledge, and yet she most likely did in fact target Dunnstral N1). YT and Ankamius are both solid townreads. Three of them + you will be nightkilled (yes, even Kokichi, because if davesaz were lynched and the game didn't end Kokichi is who I'd hide behind), leaving the fourth and fifth alive in mylo/lylo.

It would help confirm my setup speculation is more or less correct, but we already knew that to be the case.

[Punreader]

MariaR, Kellogg (

Institute 1-shot Bulletproof 1-shot Strongman Reconneusieur

), was lynched Day 4.

Abilities:

• Reconnaissance:
  Whoever your target visits/visits the target will be followed by you.

This is what I'm referring to RE: MariaR on Dunnstral.

Targeting a punbuddy is useless, because all it does is give Voyeur results on them; it'll tell her what actions were used on a punbuddy, but not yield usable information.

Targeting a town player, however, not only tells her what actions were used on that player (not very usable, but potentially useful), but

also

act as a soft-Rolecop, because she

Follows

the target. She'd see a protective action if used; a killing action if used; an investigative action if used. These are valuable things for her to learn about town players.

I thus truthfully believe she targeted Dunnstral N1, and that this makes him town.

This is not in of itself solid evidence, but it corroborates the existing evidence between my analysis on him combined with my own read on his play this game.

This game is really not that hard.
If mafia can't both action and kill, JUNGLE becomes conftown. (Sadly, I don't expect this to be the case, but we're in for a VERY pleasant surprise if so.)
Dunnstral is soft-conftown.
Kaede is hard-conftown.
I have hard-townreads on Ankamius and YT.
I know myself to be town.

That narrows the pool down to wilky/Kokichi Oma/Alchemist21/davesaz.

We have four lynches by my math. (1, 10 > 8. 2, 8 > 6. 3, 6 > 4.) We could literally lynch all of them and we would win, not even going into additional reasons for narrowing the pool down further. (Namely, reasonable townread on wilky and soft townread on Kokichi Oma.)

[Punreader]

This game is really not that hard.
If mafia can't both action and kill, JUNGLE becomes conftown. (Sadly, I don't expect this to be the case, but we're in for a VERY pleasant surprise if so.)
Dunnstral is soft-conftown.
Kaede is hard-conftown.
I have hard-townreads on Ankamius and YT.
I know myself to be town.

That narrows the pool down to wilky/Kokichi Oma/Alchemist21/davesaz.

We have four lynches by my math. (1, 10 > 8. 2, 8 > 6. 3, 6 > 4.) We could literally lynch all of them and we would win, not even going into additional reasons for narrowing the pool down further. (Namely, reasonable townread on wilky and soft townread on Kokichi Oma.)

Pagetopping this part because it's important enough to warrant a repeat and not be missed.

[Punreader]

you guys need to stop being "Vote dave" "Vote dave" we need a Plan B, i do agree dave's pretty likely scum on it's own, that was the main reason he had to be blocked last night, dunno if OTM did, which is the problem, and if he did then there's an inno on dave, meanwhile you're just ignoring this, not even giving a second option.

I did, you just didn't like the second option as it was a strong townread of yours. (Alchemist21.)
Also a tertiary option for that matter. (Kokichi Oma.)

[Punreader]

You trust my scum case on Jungle.

You mean the scum case on Jungle based around mechanics which has been more or less disproven with mechanical reasons to clear him which when given you said "okay but let's read him without mechanics"? And then proceeded to not give any non-mechanical reasons for him to be pun?

[Punreader]

We havent heard from wilky in like forever this day phase either.

You said the same about JUNGLE.

May I quote the instances where you more or less state you're lynching him because he's not showing up?

You should know what I mean.

My sentiment, then, on wilky should be obvious enough: he is no different than JUNGLE, in that wagoning him because he isn't around is just a dumb idea.

[Punreader]

I shall continue my catch-up tomorrow.

[Punreader]

punreader - Non Weak Hider (No action, Forgot, Forgot, Kokichi)

That's because it was No action N2, Kokichi N3, and davesaz N4.

Aside from that most of everyone is missing a flavor claim.

That would be Robert McCready.

Kaede, a davesaz response is coming momentarily.

[Punreader]

I'm so fucking close to just posting my role PM and being done with the lot of you.

The told you so is going to be so sweet this game. If I bother staying on the site. It's not doing my health any good.

V/LA until June 26.

Anyway i feel like this sequence of posts come from frustrated town, scum would just give up rather than threaten, and i'd think it'd be bad sportsmanship to use these kind of tactics as a survivalist scum anyway.

Personal stance? I have seen and known davesaz for long enough to know that the threat of posting the role PM is an empty threat. He would never actually do it. What a town-him, when frustrated,

would

do, is self-vote out of that frustration, giving up, "I told you so" feeling of wanting to prove his innocence the only way he could.

But that would actually risk ending the game for him as pun, thus, why he used the threat of something he'd never do but which is more drastic instead.

However, assuming that he actually is willing to quit the site because of this game.

Your defense of davesaz is exactly identical to someone else's defense of a different player, so let me just quote what I said back then.

I'm concerned that pmatt's emotion the last few pages is looking like town frustration, and I can't tell if it's real or faked. Can you?

Why are the options "real and town" or "faked and pun"?

projectmatt

davesaz

is in a situation which is frustrating regardless of his alignment; as a result, I treat the frustration as not having one.

I see the type of AtE he did as being indicative of a pun alignment.
If it wasn't indicative of that, it is not alignment indicative.
I don't see it indicating him as town.

[Punreader]

I've also seen davesaz in past games where he was town; in my experience, he actually has done

better

under pressure for gamesolving (or at least attempting it) than the times where he wasn't under pressure. People calling him pun spurred him into action in those past games, so honestly I don't believe for one second that players calling him pun sabotages his ability to contribute content to the game, because players calling him pun is how I've seen him contribute his best content in prior games.

[Punreader]

RMOJ - Quest giver (Impossibear (Public day cop), Ouroboros (Permanent BP), Me/MariaR (Commuter for 3 nights in a row), Me (Deathproof for 3 cycles(?) in a row))

No game that includes this can be balanced. It isn't real, it's lies.

Speaking as a moderator.
I know otherwise.

I'm still waiting on the mod to respond to my question about whether the pun can kill and action as well, because if I get an answer there REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE could become 100% mod-confirmed town making your continued push there sleazy-as-hell if you happened to already know he was conftown by being aware mafia can't kill and action.

[Punreader]

Only problem I have with that is that if wilky's scum that was some very good acting Day 3.

Not just D3.

Every

day has demonstrated wilky as town.

Additionally, VCA gives some strong indicators wilky's town as well.

[Punreader]

Two inventor-class abilities in the same game?

Two miller-class abilities in the same game?

[Punreader]

there have been VTs flipped tho.

Yes.
VTs.
Not power roles.

Every POWER ROLE has been complex.
Every POWER ROLE has not been simple.
Every POWER ROLE has been heavily modified with extras to it.

My point thus, still holds.

davesaz has a sketchy claim. He claims to be only a miller, whereas

every other

power role

in the game thusfar is not a standard simple role. To go through the list,

1. Ventriloquist's role of roleswapper is not a simple role.
   
2. Ouroboros's track/neighborhood mechanic was heavily modified.
   
3. projectmatt is the exception demonstrating the rule, as his rolecop is the only role unmodified.
   
4. Impossibear was both a bulletproof and a vigilante, with both aspects modified; the bulletproof had the 1x modifier, and the vig had a penalty for shooting town, a heavy modification from the standard.
   
5. MariaR's role had both a strongman and some sort of investigative power (that I don't fully understand to be honest); said investigative power was in of itself heavily modified.
   
6. MathBlade's role was not just a roleblocker; it had the modification of preceding ALL action resolution, a unique modifier which heavily modified the role.
   
7. Of the living claimed players, you have:
   • My hide, which contains a non-weak modification, which to GuyInFreezer's knowledge was a strong deviation from the normal, making it a heavily modified role.
     
   • Your role is not only an innocent child, but also an action duplicator. Action duplication is a heavily modified aspect to your role.
     
   • REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE has a proven quest effect. If you argue it's faked, that it's a public fruit vend, then that in of itself would be a heavily modified role. If you believe it's real, then this is an absolutely unique mechanic for giving out effects.
     
   • wilky is NOT ONLY a miller, BUT ALSO a slow cop, which in of itself is a heavily modified role, which is put on top of the cop.
     
   • Alchemist21 gives out some sort of inventions, but the inventions aren't standard abilities. (Okay so this role is probably fairly close to normal, but then again I'm not sure Alchemist21 has fullclaimed the exact specifics behind how the role works so it may be modified in some way.)
   Am I missing any, or does my point get across? davesaz's claim is an elephant in the room.

Miller is a power role. It is a negative utility power role, but it is still a power role.

[Punreader]

punreader's gimmick beats mine. hands down. by this point i'd already have slipped by using 'scum' instead of 'pun'

Actually it is so natural and infectious that on my main I've almost slipped by using 'pun' on that account.

Sigh, whatever im tired of arguing, hope this does flip scum, but if it doesnt, dont come crying to me to magically solve the game.
VOTE: dave

If it doesn't, it's not the end of the world. We've still got three tries, and a fairly good grasp of the game to largely solve it and fill in most blanks. I hide behind Kokichi Oma, and if the pun don't kill him, I'm alive tomorrow to do a reset, rereading the entire game and affirming all my correct conclusions and reviewing the flawed ones to find more accurate ones.

davesaz is the answer which makes the most sense. If it isn't him, I am almost assured to be around tomorrow to figure out who it actually is. If it is him, then lynching him ends the game. We don't lose here, ever, as long as we take our time when needed.

Right now, we don't need to take our time because we have an overwhelming suspect in the form of davesaz.

If he flipped town, we could push D6 almost all the way to deadline and use that time to analyze and gamesolve.

your points about dave are alright theoretically, but why do you conclusively figure projectmatt didn’t put at least one of his partners in a decent game position, given his supposed expertise?

And how does he do that?

projectmatt is as I described a skilled mafia player vastly underestimated, but his main skill as a mafia player is getting players to townread him and make them like him. He is reasonably okay with planning partner interactions and is far above average in terms of night action optimization, but he is far from a specialist in either field; his skill is first and foremost in manipulating players' perceptions of his

own

content, i.e., making himself look town.

How does he manage to set his partners up?

Especially if his partner is davesaz?

Ankamius says it best:

again, that argument doesn't work because in that scenario, the entire scumteam is sinking.

all-or-nothing gambiting is something mafia teams virtually never do, because the risks are as high as those of untamed wildfires reaching houses.

Yes, which is precisely why davesaz is pun; the punteam

didn't

try to go all-or-nothing. That's a significant portion of my case.

In what universe does a player with a <10% scum win rate unnecessarily bus 3 of their partners as a miller claim?

In what universe is your content considered a bus on all three partners?

You stayed off the projectmatt wagon for as long as humanly possible. Prior to MariaR being confscum I don't seem to recall any push on MariaR; in fact, I seem to recall hard-defense of her. (Though I admit this is from memory and I could be mistaken.) And obviously voting confscum doesn't give you town credit. This is the same reason why hammering projectmatt doesn't give town credit; he was going down, and

you

were his counterwagon, giving you incentive to hammer him regardless of alignment.

The only name you can say would qualify as a bus is Ventriloquist on D1, and at that point pun bussing is absolutely a viable thing and was in fact the expected action. MariaR did it and a second pun is incredibly likely to have also done it, as shown by how there was zero attempts to get a counterwagon to Ventriloquist going.

[Punreader]

5.02

davesaz (4):

punreader, Ankamius, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, Kaede Akamatsu

REAL MEN ONLY JUNGLE (2):

davesaz, YT2980

wilky (3):

Dunnstral, Alchemist21, Kokichi Oma

Dunnstral (2):

wilky, Alchemist21

Not Voting:

None

With

10

alive,

6

to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2018-06-26 17:15:26)

MOD: Can the mafia both kill and action?

I can't find that information in the mod's iso, and it's not listed in the mafia's role PMs.

[Punreader]

This game is really not that hard.
If mafia can't both action and kill, JUNGLE becomes conftown. (Sadly, I don't expect this to be the case, but we're in for a VERY pleasant surprise if so.)
Dunnstral is soft-conftown.
Kaede is hard-conftown.
I have hard-townreads on Ankamius and YT.
I know myself to be town.

That narrows the pool down to wilky/Kokichi Oma/Alchemist21/davesaz.

We have four lynches by my math. (1, 10 > 8. 2, 8 > 6. 3, 6 > 4.) We could literally lynch all of them and we would win, not even going into additional reasons for narrowing the pool down further. (Namely, reasonable townread on wilky and soft townread on Kokichi Oma.)

Pagetopping this part because it's important enough to warrant a repeat and not be missed.

Change any player in that list with Dunn and i'll get on board with this. I'll even eat the lynch today as long as Dunn gets swapped into this list. Until then my votes not moving.

You apparently missed the part where Dunnstral is conftown.

To reiterate,

Since we can reasonably infer the pun nightkill N1 was not ManWithNoName, we can reasonably infer the strongman was not utilized N1 (

especially given MariaR claimed to use her action on Dunnstral

). Given this, it is probable that they intended to save the strongman for as long as possible.

MariaR, Kellogg (

Institute 1-shot Bulletproof 1-shot Strongman Reconneusieur

), was lynched Day 4.

Abilities:

• Reconnaissance:
  Whoever your target visits/visits the target will be followed by you.

This is what I'm referring to RE: MariaR on Dunnstral.

Targeting a punbuddy is useless, because all it does is give Voyeur results on them; it'll tell her what actions were used on a punbuddy, but not yield usable information.

Targeting a town player, however, not only tells her what actions were used on that player (not very usable, but potentially useful), but

also

act as a soft-Rolecop, because she

Follows

the target. She'd see a protective action if used; a killing action if used; an investigative action if used. These are valuable things for her to learn about town players.

I thus truthfully believe she targeted Dunnstral N1, and that this makes him town.

This is not in of itself solid evidence, but it corroborates the existing evidence between my analysis on him combined with my own read on his play this game.

MariaR is proven to have had a role which was a combined Follower/Voyeur.
Using this on her punbuddy is useless; she knows the Follower half because she is his punbuddy, and thus reduces it to a mere Voyeur of a punbuddy. Knowing what actions were performed on her punbuddy but not what type is near-useless information.

Using this on a town player is useful; she now gets a pseudo-[post=Rolecop]Rolecop[/post] which gives her the role information of players she doesn't already know, while also allowing her to know what actions were used on that player. Though the second has only marginal use (for instance, telling her if someone investigated/protected Dunnstral can tell her what other players think of Dunnstral), the first cannot be emphasized enough.

She, essentially, rolecopped Dunnstral N1.

You can argue wifom of "she lied", or "she used it on her punbuddy", but both violate occam's razor; the simpler answer is she told the truth and targeted a town player with her action.

This thus clears Dunnstral.

[Punreader]

I have a promise to fulfill: I will solve the game today.

We are going to take our time.

I intend to (re)read the full game start to finish and bring up my observations.

While I am doing this, however, we are going to massclaim.

Everyone needs to fullclaim in their next post.

Popcorning will eat up too much of our precious little time; organizing a claim list would take even longer than that. So let's just cut the knot.

Everyone fullclaim their role flavor, their role name, and all actions they have taken.

I've already done so, but to summarize in one spot:

I am Robert McCready, Commonwealth Modified Hider

.
The modification is that I do not die when hiding behind players that are Institute-aligned.
Tchill did not hide N1.
I did not hide N2.
I hid behind Kokichi Oma N3.
I hid behind davesaz N4.
I hid behind Kokichi Oma N5.

alchemist just needs to be on the lynch bandwagon. that's it. reward: his alignment will be copped and sent to a random player

This is an easily-achieved goal and when we DO decide on a lynch, we make sure Alchemist21 is on it. As there will be six players alive tomorrow (five, if I die overnight due to my hide), we can trust the result to be accurate AND prove that REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE's role is real, killing two birds with one stone. We simply need to not lynch Alchemist21 today.

I would further like to add: wilky is presumably in the middle of generating another result. We can afford to mislynch wilky tomorrow, so we shouldn't lynch wilky today. We also shouldn't lynch wilky's cop target.

Given this,

Off the lynch table for today:

Alchemist21, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, wilky. (Plus cop target?)

Still on the lynch table:

Ramcius/YT2980, Ankamius, Dunnstral, verylazy/Kokichi Oma, and technically myself. (Although for obvious reasons, I feel that would be a mistake.)

Final initial note:

I would like to point out that the last pun cannot both be a loud public fruit vendor AND a roleblocker/redirector/whatever causes wilky's role to fail; the last pun cannot both be an ability inventor AND a roleblocker/redirector/whatever causes wilky's role to fail. (Do I need to explain this logic to everyone, or do you already follow along as to why this is the case?)

This means that if you believe wilky to be town, you MUST believe REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE to be town as well. (I confess vice-versa is not the case; REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE can be town with wilky as pun.)

[Punreader]

I would like to point out that the last pun cannot both be a loud public fruit vendor AND a roleblocker/redirector/whatever causes wilky's role to fail; the last pun cannot both be an ability inventor AND a roleblocker/redirector/whatever causes wilky's role to fail. (Do I need to explain this logic to everyone, or do you already follow along as to why this is the case?)

This means that if you believe wilky to be town, you MUST believe REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE to be town as well. (I confess vice-versa is not the case; REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE can be town with wilky as pun.)

I decided I'd go into the reasoning for this in detail.

If you assume wilky isn't town, then wilky's pun and automatically REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE would thus be town.
If you assume wilky is town, then wilky is telling the truth about his role and the results failing. We thus have confirmation the last pun has a redirector/roleblocker type role of some sort causing wilky to fail.

If REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE's role is as REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE claims, then its usage is confirmed multiple times already. We know who he has targeted using this role each and every single night.
If the mod allows the pun to both action and kill, this allows him to do both.
However, I do not believe the mod would allow REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE to have the role he claims,

and

be a redirector/roleblocker/whatever's interfering with wilky, and even if I did buy that GuyInFreezer would permit this, past experienced based around his previously modded games would indicate that he would not permit the pun to use

three

action in a single night: REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE's claimed role, the redirector/roleblocker/whatever's interfering with wilky,

and

the nightkill.

Thus, if you assume wilky is town, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE must be town.

If REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE's role is a public fruit vend as his detractors claim, then its usage is

still

confirmed multiple times already. We know who he has targeted using the role each and every single night.
If the mod allows the pun to both action and kill, this allows him to do both.

However, this still would not mean he should be able to use

three

actions: the nightkill, the public fruit vend, AND the redirector/roleblocker/whatever's interfering with wilky.

Thus, as long as you assume there's only one pun alive, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is conftown.

I am not willing to assume there's two pun alive; my working assumption is only one, and thus, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is conftown.

As an aside, I'd like to amend my prior post.
wilky should not claim his investigation target

unless

we had locked in his investigation target as the lynch. (Locking in a player for the lynch should not result in the player being instantly lynched, as we'd need to ensure Alchemist21 was on the wagon anyway.)

[Punreader]

So at this point I'm willing to call all of Alchemist21, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, and wilky confirmed town on one merit in of itself:
There's too many vanilla claims.

We've had two VTs flip thusfar in the game, and now we have a total of four more.

While three are guaranteed to be truthful (thus, giving us five VTs), I would not imagine we'd have six VTs in this game.

This is particularly true if you trust wilky to be town. If wilky is town, then the last pun has a role causing wilky's repeated failures, one which they would never openly claim. (And thus, they claim VT instead.)

Of course, this does not narrow things down much as REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE was already conftown, Alchemist21 should be conftown tomorrow, and wilky is off the lynch table for today.

If I had to select a lynch-then-hide right now (i.e. select top two suspects), it would be lynch Kokichi Oma, hide behind YT2980 (Dunnstral is tempting, but he is soft-cleared via Maria's role; while this does not remove him from the lynch pool altogether as he is not conftown, it makes him a less appealing target), but I still need to put the time into reading and gamesolving.

[Punreader]

What's the point of telling who you would hide behind, scum would just kill them.

Telling who I hide behind has no downsides and a bunch of upsides.
We are on evens in terms of numbers; my death during the night would place us at odds.
While I am widely townread, I am not conftown; my death removes any lingering suspicion/paranoia on my slot.
I am deliberately hiding behind players that are suspects, so if the pun shoot who I hide behind, then they are narrowing the lynch pool; this is a good thing.

If the pun decide not to shoot my target (or

can't

, because I'm hiding behind pun), then it still leaves me available to solve the game on future days, while effectively immortal. Critically, this is objectively not good for them, as I have raised key points of evidence which has all-but outright cleared players the pun were hoping to mislynch.

Thus, regardless of whether they shoot my target or not, the town always gains something from it.

[Punreader]

Is 6 vt really abnormal in a large game?

Not inherently so, but in this game it is more than I would anticipate for multiple reasons. Especially since if you call a power role claim pun, what you are effectively saying is that the town doesn't have that power, leaving the town

even weaker

than it already is.

In other words, 6 VTs would

not only

be a lower amount of power,

but also

mean one of our claimed powers isn't town, reducing our strength even further than it already would be.

Thus, why it is a reasonable assumption the last pun is in one of the VT claims.

[Punreader]

I don't think anybody's especially townreading me except YT at this point? Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe Pun?

I am townreading you, but I have not had a chance to generate a hard townread there, as I promised I would do at least a soft-reset if davesaz ended up flipping town.

As he did, I owe no less than to doubt my prior reads. I was townreading to various extents everyone save for davesaz; one of those reads, then, was inherently wrong.

@punreader: do you still plan on posting an analysis this day phase? would also like to wait on that if you are.

I intend to, but as is easily discerned, I am American; I am celebrating a holiday at the moment so it will not be until the 5th that I can offer this, at earliest. (Depending on how busy work the day after will be.)

[Punreader]

where’s punreader at?

I must apologize for this.

I was under the impression you were aware I had noted I would not be around this weekend. So sure, I was quoting this post expecting to answer it by simply quoting one of my own prior posts.

However, I apparently did not give you that message in this game.

It is easily shown I was not around during this time especially if you are aware of my main; Ankamius at the very least can fully vouch for my absence being known.

[Punreader]

@Punn if you're doing a read reset can we get a reads list?

You've got a partial one already.

I am not lynching REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE ever as I consider him conftown.
I am not lynching Alchemist21 as I believe he has a significant chance of being town and will have his alignment proven tomorrow.
I am not lynching you as I believe you have a significant chance of being town and will give some useful information tomorrow.

I am of the opinion the last pun is in the 4 VT claims.
Dunnstral is soft-cleared via MariaR, but by play would be my secondary suspect after Kokichi Oma.
From least pun to most pun, in the VT claims it would go:
Ankamius > YT (NO SOFT CLEAR) > Dunnstral > Kokichi Oma
Ankamius > Dunnstral > YT (SOFT CLEAR) > Kokichi Oma.

But without rereading (see below), I cannot solidify this.

@pun when will you be back to normal activity?

At about this time tomorrow. (Give or take a few hours.) I don't have the time to devote much to this game tonight, but within 48 hours I'll have remedied this.

[Punreader]

I’m ready for the Day to end.

Before I go to bed tonight, I will hammer Kokichi Oma (or at the very least cast my vote on him if someone unvotes), with an intent to hide behind YT. However, I intend to get as much work done prior to that point as possible.

Wasnt I just your townread

You were!

Then davesaz flipped town.

It's amazing how reads have changed on me when people become desperate

I confess you are exactly this, a desperation lynch; pretending otherwise would be a farce.

However, this doesn't change how you're still the preferred lynch. It may be desperation, but desperation is, at the moment, all we have.

If you are town, then the best you can do at this point is make sure we have a lynch (even if it's yourself), give us your best attempt at gamesolving, and also offer as much time as possible to others to game solve while not conflicting with the first goal (getting a lynch > letting people game solve, at this point).

[Punreader]

I want to take a quick look at this.

Spoiler: Noteworthy Votecounts

VC 1.01

Ventriloquist

(2):

davesaz

,

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ouroboros

(1):

Alchemist21

Nero Cain/projectmatt

(1):

Impossibear

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma

Kaede Akamatsu

(1):

Dunnstral

MariaR

(1):

Ramcius/YT2980

davesaz

(1):

wilky

wilky

(5):

Ouroboros

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

, Ankamius

Not Voting:

Wraith

,

Tchill13/punreader

,

Ventriloquist

,

Nero Cain/projectmatt

,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

VC 1.02

Tchill13/punreader

(3):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma,

Impossibear

,

davesaz

Kaede Akamatsu

(1):

Dunnstral

davesaz

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

wilky

(4):

Kaede Akamatsu

,

MariaR

, Ankamius,

Tchill13/punreader

Ankamius (1):

Alchemist21

Ouroboros

(1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Ramcius/YT2980 (4):

wilky

,

Ouroboros

,

ManWithNoName

,

hebichan/OnTheMark

Not Voting:

Wraith

,

Ventriloquist

, Ramcius/YT2980

VC 1.03

Tchill13/punreader

(4):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma,

Impossibear

,

davesaz

,

Wraith

wilky

(1):

Tchill13/punreader

Ouroboros

(1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Ramcius/YT2980 (3):

wilky

,

Ventriloquist

,

Alchemist21

Nero Cain/projectmatt

(2):

Dunnstral,

MariaR

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(2):

Ouroboros

,

hebichan/OnTheMark

verylazy/Kokichi Oma (1):

Kaede Akamatsu

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

(1):

ManWithNoName

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ankamius

Not Voting:

Ramcius/YT2980

VC 1.04

Tchill13/punreader

(2):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma,

davesaz

wilky

(1):

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (3):

wilky

,

Ventriloquist

,

Alchemist21

Nero Cain/projectmatt

(2):

Dunnstral, Ramcius/YT2980

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(6):

Ouroboros

,

hebichan/OnTheMark

,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

verylazy/Kokichi Oma (1):

Kaede Akamatsu

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ankamius

Wraith

(1):

Impossibear

VC 1.05

Tchill13/punreader

(2):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma,

davesaz

wilky

(1):

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky

,

Ventriloquist

Nero Cain/projectmatt

(2):

Dunnstral, Ramcius/YT2980

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(6):

Ouroboros

,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

,

Alchemist21

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ankamius

Wraith

(2):

Impossibear

,

Kaede Akamatsu

Not Voting:

hebichan/OnTheMark

VC 1.06

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma

wilky

(1):

Ramcius/YT2980

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

wilky

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(8):

Ouroboros

,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

,

Alchemist21

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

davesaz

,

Tchill13/punreader

ManWithNoName

(2):

Ankamius,

Ventriloquist

Wraith

(1):

Impossibear

Impossibear

(1):

Dunnstral

davesaz

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

verylazy/Kokichi Oma (1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

VC 1.07

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma

wilky

(1):

Ramcius/YT2980

MariaR

(1):

Nero Cain/projectmatt

Ventriloquist

(10):

Ouroboros

,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

,

Wraith

,

Alchemist21

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

davesaz

,

Tchill13/punreader

,

wilky

, Ankamius

ManWithNoName

(1):

Ventriloquist

Wraith

(1):

Impossibear

Impossibear

(1):

Dunnstral

davesaz

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

verylazy/Kokichi Oma (1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

VC 2.01

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

Ouroboros

Kokichi Oma (2):

Dunnstral,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Ankamius (2):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Wraith

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

wilky

(2):

MariaR

,

Impossibear

Not Voting:

Tchill13/punreader

, Kokichi Oma,

wilky

,

Nero Cain/projectmatt

,

Alchemist21

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

davesaz

2.01

wilky

(3):

MariaR

,

Ouroboros

,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

Kokichi Oma (2):

Dunnstral

Ankamius (1):

Ramcius/YT2980

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

wilky

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Tchill13/punreader

, Kokichi Oma,

Nero Cain/projectmatt

,

Alchemist21

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

davesaz

,

Impossibear

2.02

wilky

(3):

MariaR

,

Ouroboros

,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

Kokichi Oma (2):

Dunnstral

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (3):

wilky

, Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Tchill13/punreader

, Kokichi Oma,

Nero Cain/projectmatt

,

Alchemist21

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

davesaz

2.02

wilky

(3):

MariaR

,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

,

Tchill13/punreader

Dunnstral (1):

Ankamius

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (4):

wilky

, Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

, Dunnstral

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

,

Alchemist21

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

davesaz

,

Ouroboros

2.03

wilky

(3):

MariaR

,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

,

Tchill13/punreader

Dunnstral (1):

Ankamius

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (6):

wilky

, Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

, Dunnstral,

projectmatt

, Kokichi Oma

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

Wraith

Ouroboros

(1):

Kaede Akamatsu

Not Voting:

Alchemist21

,

davesaz

,

Ouroboros

2.04

wilky

(2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13/punreader

Impossibear

(1):

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ramcius/YT2980 (5):

wilky

, Dunnstral,

projectmatt

, Kokichi Oma,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Tchill13/punreader

(3):

Wraith

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

Impossibear

Kokichi Oma (2):

Ouroboros

, Ankamius

Not Voting:

Alchemist21

,

davesaz

, Ramcius/YT2980

2.05

wilky

(2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (3):

wilky

, Dunnstral,

projectmatt

Tchill13/punreader

(5):

Wraith, Kaede Akamatsu, Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Kokichi Oma (2):

Ankamius,

OnTheMark

Wraith

(1):

Ouroboros

Not Voting:

Alchemist21

,

davesaz

, Ramcius/YT2980

2.06

wilky

(2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky

,

projectmatt

Tchill13/punreader

(8):

Wraith

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

,

OnTheMark

, Ankamius, Dunnstral

Ankamius (1):

Ouroboros

Not Voting:

Alchemist21

,

davesaz

, Ramcius/YT2980

2.07

wilky

(2):

MariaR

,

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

wilky

Tchill13/punreader

(2):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

,

davesaz

davesaz

(4):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma,

Kaede Akamatsu, Wraith

Dunnstral (2):

Ankamius,

projectmatt

OnTheMark (1):

Ouroboros

Wraith

(1):

Ramcius/YT2980

projectmatt

(1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

Alchemist21

,

Impossibear

2.09

wilky

(1):

Tchill13/punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky

, Ankamius

Tchill13/punreader

(3):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

,

davesaz

,

MariaR

davesaz

(3):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma,

Wraith

Dunnstral (2):

projectmatt

,

Alchemist21

OnTheMark

(1):

Ouroboros

Wraith

(1):

Ramcius/YT2980

projectmatt

(1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

Impossibear, Kaede Akamatsu

2.10

wilky

(1):

punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (3):

wilky

, Ankamius,

projectmatt

punreader

(1):

davesaz

davesaz

(1):

Kokichi Oma

Dunnstral (1):

Alchemist21

Wraith

(5):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Ouroboros

,

Kaede Akamatsu, OnTheMark

, Dunnstral

Kokichi Oma (2):

MariaR

,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

MariaR

(1):

Wraith

Not Voting:

Impossibear

2.12

wilky

(1):

punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

wilky

,

projectmatt

punreader

(2):

davesaz

,

Alchemist21

davesaz

(1):

Kokichi Oma

Wraith

(9):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Ouroboros

,

Kaede Akamatsu, OnTheMark

, Dunnstral,

Wraith

, Ankamius,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

,

Impossibear

Kokichi Oma (1):

MariaR

3.01

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

(3):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma

projectmatt

(2):

Ramcius/YT2980, Dunnstral

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

Ankamius

Not Voting:

punreader

,

wilky

,

projectmatt

,

davesaz

,

Alchemist21

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

3.02

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

(4):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

projectmatt

(2):

Ramcius/YT2980,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

Ankamius

MariaR

(1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Alchemist21

(1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

punreader

,

davesaz

,

Kaede Akamatsu

3.03

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

(4):

OnTheMark

,

Impossibear

, Kokichi Oma,

projectmatt

projectmatt

(3):

Ramcius/YT2980,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

,

punreader

Ramcius/YT2980 (1):

Ankamius

MariaR

(1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Alchemist21

(1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting:

davesaz

,

Kaede Akamatsu

3.04

punreader

(1):

MariaR

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

(3):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma,

davesaz

projectmatt

(6):

Ramcius/YT2980,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

, Dunnstral,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

Kaede Akamatsu

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

Ankamius,

projectmatt

MariaR (1):

wilky

OnTheMark

(1):

Alchemist21

Not Voting:

davesaz

3.05

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

(3):

OnTheMark

, Kokichi Oma,

davesaz

projectmatt

(6):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

MariaR

,

wilky

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

Ankamius,

projectmatt

davesaz

(1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

Not Voting:

davesaz

, Dunnstral,

Alchemist21

3.06

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

(2):

OnTheMark

,

davesaz

projectmatt

(6):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

MariaR

,

wilky

,

Kaede Akamatsu

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

projectmatt

, Dunnstral

davesaz

(3):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

, Kokichi Oma, Ankamius

Not Voting:

davesaz

,

Alchemist21

3.07

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

(1):

OnTheMark

projectmatt

(8):

Ramcius/YT2980,

Impossibear

,

punreader

,

MariaR

,

wilky

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

,

davesaz

Ramcius/YT2980 (2):

projectmatt

, Dunnstral

davesaz

(2):

Kokichi Oma, Ankamius

Not Voting:

davesaz

,

Alchemist21

Blue is not objectively conftown but has reason to be treated such at least subjectively.
Cyan is a softer shade of this: even less conftown, but off the lynch table today because of the significant chance of learning important information for tomorrow.

[Punreader]

VC 1.01

Ventriloquist

(2):

davesaz

,

hebichan/OnTheMark

Ouroboros

(1):

Alchemist21

Nero Cain/projectmatt

(1):

Impossibear

Tchill13/punreader

(1):

verylazy/Kokichi Oma

Kaede Akamatsu

(1):

Dunnstral

MariaR

(1):

Ramcius/YT2980

davesaz

(1):

wilky

wilky

(5):

Ouroboros

,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

ManWithNoName

,

MariaR

, Ankamius

Not Voting:

Wraith

,

Tchill13/punreader

,

Ventriloquist

,

Nero Cain/projectmatt

,

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

It's minor, but I find it slightly less likely pun would feel a particular need to pile onto wilky here. Knowing davesaz was town, both miller claims were to them presumably known to be town. As such, they had little reason to push hard for a lynch on one. This would give a small bit of support to the idea of Ankamius being town here.

Unfortunately, that's as much useful information as I could glean; the rest of my VCA simply reinforces existing biases: Kokichi Oma is objectively the most likely pun, with Dunnstral and YT as close but loosely Dunnstral looking ever so slightly worse, with Ankamius looking better overall.
An order which looks like Kokichi Oma > Dunnstral

>

YT > Ankamius, most to least. Same as without the VCA.

So since the VCA isn't actually

analyzing

anything, I'll need to do this the old-fashioned way. (Though I was planning on this regardless, I was hoping VCA could at least give me some sort of lead to check out. No such luck.)

[Punreader]

As promised,
VOTE: Kokichi Oma.
Apologies I couldn't do more.

[Punreader]

MOD: Need a 24-48 hour V/LA.

Need to recover from illness.

[Punreader]

I am here and will be reading shortly.

[Punreader]

As I promised, I hid behind the Prof Fridays slot, when it was YT. I considered changing targets when YT replaced out because I felt his replace-out given his day-end content was something far more likely to come from town than pun, but opted not to given I didn't wish to change my target from my stated one.

Punreader was the only one that really cared enough to put a significant amount of effort in throughout the game, but I can vouch for them not really being around enough to continue it throughout day 6.

I do apologize for that, and am attempting to remedy that. I may or may not have plans for later; if I do not, I guarantee I'll make progress, though unfortunately, if I end up having plans later today, then I inevitably will not accomplish much. (I can only work with my schedule, and I feel I shouldn't need to say sorry if I end up choosing a real-life appointment over an online forum game. But if I can do things for this game today, I will.)

However, we

know

scum have fake-claims given to them, given the Piper flip, right? I find it hard to believe a scum RB's fake claim is VT? Even if you take that maybe scum kept the flavor claim but swapped the role claim for VT, Trashcan Carla, Vault Tec Guy and Moe Cronin hardly seem like PR fake claims, unless even that was made-up, too (which I'll admit is possible but risky for all but the one who claimed VT last - which, admittedly I can't remember who that was atm).

I am, admittedly, unfamiliar with the flavor. However, my guess would be precisely what you said: they have a PR fakeclaim they opted not to use.

It is not out of the question, however, for an excessively-punny role to be given a fakeclaim lacking this aspect. For instance, MariaR's role included a strongman; this detail would definitely be absent from her mod-provided safeclaim.

Another possibility you overlook is that Ventriloquist's role, bodyswapper, was likely given a VT safeclaim; it is fairly viable for the last pun to simply use Ventriloquist's safeclaim. We wouldn't be able to tell the difference because safeclaims didn't flip with the lynches.

Reads list summary (from most town-y to most scummy):

punreader
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
Ankamius
Alchemist21
Wilky
Dunnstral

This is actually almost my reads list.
I would place Prof Fridays at around Ankamius's level, maybe slightly below (let's say taking Alchemist's place since sure, why not; he's dead), but this list neatly mirrors my sentiments.

[Punreader]

I assume that means you changed your mind on Dunnstral?

Loosely, yes.

He's my best guess, but that doesn't mean a whole lot given I'm 0-2 in terms of previous best guesses.

I do feel it's important to note for those (such as myself) that wish to (re)read the entire game that when doing so, there are two possible gamestates:
The pun knowing wilky is town and that both millers are town,
Or that the pun knew davesaz was town and that wilky was not.

I still find the former more likely overall given how early D1 played out, but the latter needs to be considered when running through interactions.

[Punreader]

then why did i see you visiting alchemist last night?
VOTE: punreader

You didn't, because I didn't.

I submitted to GuyInFreezer, verbatim:

HIDE BEHIND: Yt.

The slot was not yet Prof Friday's when I submitted that.

As I know that hiders, per GuyInFreezer, are equal to commuters, my action could not have been redirected especially as I would be dead if I had visited Alchemist21 because I am not lying and you are being an absolute gamethrowing moron right now.

[Punreader]

The exact wording behind my PM, as close as I can get without getting modkilled:
ROBERT MCCREADY, Commonwealth Modified Hider.
Ability, I don't plan to risk my life for you.
I hide behind my target. I don't die hiding behind Institute-aligned players, unlike a normal hider. (GIF is out of date as to what constitutes a normal hider, and even PMed me asking, "wait, what? Since when?" when I described what the current norm for hiders is.) I still die if my target is killed during the night.

I asked the following questions:
Can a hider be tracked?
Can a hider be roleblocked?
If a hider hides behind a target who is watched, do they show up on the watch report?
If a hider is targeted for an investigative action, does the action fail, give a result on the hider, or give a result on both the hider and the hider's target?

If a hider's target is targeted for an investigative action, does the action give a result on the target, a result on the hider, or a result on both the hider and the hider's target?

I was told the hide follows Natural Action Resolution, and counts as a commute.

I reasked to confirm,

If a hider's target is targeted for an investigative action, does the action give a result on the target, a result on the hider, or a result on both the hider and the hider's target?

And was told the answer was my target.

Tchill did not hide N1; I did not hide N2.
I hid behind Kokichi Oma N3.
I hid behind davesaz N4.
I hid behind Kokichi Oma N5.
I hid behind YT (now Prof Friday) N6.

That is as close to a direct quote as I can get without being modkilled.

So I repeat, Jungle, stop being a gamethrowing moron because I know you don't have that result and I also know you're town.

[Punreader]

I can potentially even do one better.

MOD: Would a mafia commuter be able to both kill and action?
Would a mafia hider be able to both kill and action?

Assume the mafia by default can both kill and action. Would a mafia commuter still be able to do so?
Assume the mafia by default can both kill and action. Would a mafia hider still be able to do so?

I need not prove my role to be real because I feel I have strong enough evidence backing that I would not lie about my role and the proof is in what I have done already.
I only need prove that the claimed kill cannot be mine due to my role.

[Punreader]

It would appear that my role PM's spelling doesn't match the actual character name spelling, but:
This is who I am.

[Punreader]

I forgot to mention, the line of text underneath the image references him being a former leader, turned mercenary for caps.

[Punreader]

I also found a different copy of the image from my role PM.
This shouldn't count as a role PM quote because I'm not using the image from the role PM. (I checked, it's a completely different URL.)
I'm just using a nearly-identical image from a different source.
Which should work as a paraphrase.

[Punreader]

I am wondering where Ankamius is right now because I know she's been online since RMOJ decided to gamethrow.

[Punreader]

What's up?

then why did i see you visiting alchemist last night?
VOTE: punreader

then why did i see you visiting alchemist last night?
VOTE: punreader

You didn't, because I didn't.

I submitted to GuyInFreezer, verbatim:

HIDE BEHIND: Yt.

The slot was not yet Prof Friday's when I submitted that.

As I know that hiders, per GuyInFreezer, are equal to commuters, my action could not have been redirected especially as I would be dead if I had visited Alchemist21 because I am not lying and you are being an absolute gamethrowing moron right now.

The exact wording behind my PM, as close as I can get without getting modkilled:
ROBERT MCCREADY, Commonwealth Modified Hider.
Ability, I don't plan to risk my life for you.
I hide behind my target. I don't die hiding behind Institute-aligned players, unlike a normal hider. (GIF is out of date as to what constitutes a normal hider, and even PMed me asking, "wait, what? Since when?" when I described what the current norm for hiders is.) I still die if my target is killed during the night.

I asked the following questions:
Can a hider be tracked?
Can a hider be roleblocked?
If a hider hides behind a target who is watched, do they show up on the watch report?
If a hider is targeted for an investigative action, does the action fail, give a result on the hider, or give a result on both the hider and the hider's target?

If a hider's target is targeted for an investigative action, does the action give a result on the target, a result on the hider, or a result on both the hider and the hider's target?

I was told the hide follows Natural Action Resolution, and counts as a commute.

I reasked to confirm,

If a hider's target is targeted for an investigative action, does the action give a result on the target, a result on the hider, or a result on both the hider and the hider's target?

And was told the answer was my target.

Tchill did not hide N1; I did not hide N2.
I hid behind Kokichi Oma N3.
I hid behind davesaz N4.
I hid behind Kokichi Oma N5.
I hid behind YT (now Prof Friday) N6.

That is as close to a direct quote as I can get without being modkilled.

So I repeat, Jungle, stop being a gamethrowing moron because I know you don't have that result and I also know you're town.

I can potentially even do one better.

MOD: Would a mafia commuter be able to both kill and action?
Would a mafia hider be able to both kill and action?

Assume the mafia by default can both kill and action. Would a mafia commuter still be able to do so?
Assume the mafia by default can both kill and action. Would a mafia hider still be able to do so?

I need not prove my role to be real because I feel I have strong enough evidence backing that I would not lie about my role and the proof is in what I have done already.
I only need prove that the claimed kill cannot be mine due to my role.

It would appear that my role PM's spelling doesn't match the actual character name spelling, but:
This is who I am.

I forgot to mention, the line of text underneath the image references him being a former leader, turned mercenary for caps.

I also found a different copy of the image from my role PM.
This shouldn't count as a role PM quote because I'm not using the image from the role PM. (I checked, it's a completely different URL.)
I'm just using a nearly-identical image from a different source.
Which should work as a paraphrase.

[Punreader]

Or if you prefer formatting as close to the original as possible, the order would be such.

Robert McCready

(actually Robert MacCready, but the role PM is what I'm going by)

, Commonwealth Modified Hider

Reference to him being a former leader, turned mercenary for caps.

Abilities:
I don't plan to risk my life for you: I hide behind my target. I don't die hiding behind Institute-aligned players, unlike a normal hider.

(GIF is out of date as to what constitutes a normal hider, and even PMed me asking, "wait, what? Since when?" when I described what the current norm for hiders is.)

I still die if my target is killed during the night.

Win Condition:
Eliminate all who are sided with the Institute.

This is all a paraphrase, even the image used not being an exact duplicate, but it's as close as I can get without a modkill.

It is worth mentioning I have absolutely zero flavor knowledge. I joined this game because I saw the replacement request, figured the slot was town, and with a pun lynch D1 figured I'd be able to find the remaining pun from there. I cannot fakeclaim even were I inclined to, so you should be able to tell that this is mod-provided. That doesn't make me town as it can be a mod-provided safeclaim, but I am literally incapable of coming up with this all on my own.

[Punreader]

Pun
The problem is: what part of that would you not have access to as a safe claim in your role pm

None, but proof of role in this case, unlike normal,

can

be proof of alignment, due to this.

I can potentially even do one better.

MOD: Would a mafia commuter be able to both kill and action?
Would a mafia hider be able to both kill and action?

Assume the mafia by default can both kill and action. Would a mafia commuter still be able to do so?
Assume the mafia by default can both kill and action. Would a mafia hider still be able to do so?

I need not prove my role to be real because I feel I have strong enough evidence backing that I would not lie about my role and the proof is in what I have done already.
I only need prove that the claimed kill cannot be mine due to my role.

If my role's safeclaim is hider, then it is a fair assumption that I have either a hide or a commute. It is incredibly poor modding design to give pun fakeclaims that do not correspond to actual abilities; if you can be caught by claiming a role which was

meant

to be safe due to not actually having that ability, then it isn't actually all that safe to claim, now, is it?

Thus, if you assume any level of competency in GuyInFreezer's moderating, you must then assume that if my fakeclaim is hider, I have an ability which works similarly to a hider. The only abilities which are in that classification are hider, commuter, and ascetic, as far as I can think of.

And if I can prove that hiders/commuters can't both kill and action.
Then I can more or less prove almost definitively REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE cannot have the result he is claiming.

[Punreader]

I would also like to emphasize that, were I pun here, I'd had to have double-bussed from the onset as projectmatt and MariaR were suspicions of mine since the moment I replaced in and I was advocating for their deaths since the moment I was a player. (You will not find a player who pushed projectmatt harder than I did; you will not find a player more adamant we lynch MariaR.) I place value on play in most situations and my play is strongly evident of me not being pun as I have a strong record of not bussing in most situations, if I am capable of avoiding it.

The things you hold suspicion of me on, of me not following through on a promise to provide more recent content, you also know to be not alignment indicative, or if indicative of alignment at all, indicative of me holding a town alignment as I am atrocious at providing followthrough to my promises.

[Punreader]

I am however quite comfortable with this now.
VOTE: Dunnstral.

In the unlikely case we have two pun left, Dunnstral is confscum here as literally the only player who could not have hammered.

In the case we have only one pun left, then it becomes less assured as going into tomorrow after I flip town players will need to justify their stances today.
However, even then, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE remains conftown because the fakeclaim here is literally suicidal. That's why it's town. It is gamethrowingly stupid regardless of alignment, but it is not a stunt REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE would pull as pun.

The last pun, then, has two options available:
Vote me and hope to lynch REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE tomorrow,
Or not vote me, and hope the townVtown with them arbitrating gives them towncred.

Given this, I would say wilky is more town than before.
Prof Friday hasn't responded but I am quite confident in being town anyway.
Ankamius

should

know all of this already.

That I wouldn't fakeclaim.
That I am town by play.
That the reasons she's suspicious for me aren't indicative of alignment because they happen literally every game. (Including in mhsmith's game; the number of promises I broke there is quite high.)

As a result, she's a candidate for being pun taking a more arbiter stance, but by far the worse response thusfar isn't hers; it's Dunnstral's.
He asks a question, but doesn't wait for the answer; he votes me anyway. Placing me at L-1. A situation where anyone reading the claim could hammer before he got an answer.

[Punreader]

ah jesus damnit, mastina if you're scum here you're good. i didn't actually consider alchemist dying yesterday when i gave the quest and my conftown going to waste so i have no result and no conftown today and that is sad

i retract the above, it's just a gambit, now I have doubts that punreader is scum.

however, he's still my top scumread

And you wonder why people want to lynch you.
I wish I could let them, but alas.

My goal is to lynch pun, not lynch the players who we wish were pun.

[Punreader]

Ankamius

should

know all of this already.

That I wouldn't fakeclaim.
That I am town by play.
That the reasons she's suspicious for me aren't indicative of alignment because they happen literally every game. (Including in mhsmith's game; the number of promises I broke there is quite high.)

As a result, she's a candidate for being pun taking a more arbiter stance.

I should mention that I have a large bias here.

One of the main reasons Ankamius has, consistently, been the VT I've most townread is because of her play in a recent pungame, Minuet's Trio. I felt her comments there, found here and here, indicated that to be her main experience with being pun since returning from hiatus.

Additional reasoning for believing her to be town was how there was a point in the game where our reads were almost

precisely

linked, for similar and yet not identical reasoning. Her stances having been mirrors of my own was an indicator I believed pointed to her being town.

Counterbalancing this, however, is the aforementioned factors above, where she isn't treating me the way I feel she

should

be. Additionally, it did not escape my notice that near the end when projectmatt was at risk of death more seriously, she had what amounted to a flip-out and almost entire read-inversion, where she did essentially everything except advocate for his lynch in spite of previously having done so.

One of the main reasons I wish to get a (re)read of the game is to check that section out again to better define what it means.

[Punreader]

everyone has positive interactions = looks towny EXCEPT punreader. this may be confirmation bias but i think i'm right here.

What.

why i'm not dead? because I was hard townreading punreader every single day prior to giving any indication of my suspicion on him today.

Alternatively, because pun aren't going to kill a mislynch candidate?

both projectmatt and mariaR gave minimal resistance to punreader's pushes, almost as if they're

letting him

do it. i don't recall them trying to squirm their way out or do something weaselly like what a typical scum would, if caught by town.

Distinctly false on both accounts. Both tried; both failed.

[Punreader]

It's been a long time since I've given a readslist, but I feel like this is where I am at:
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
Prof Fridays
wilky ~= Ankamius
Dunnstral

This is not where I want to be.
Thus why I need to (re)read.

[Punreader]

how do you expect ankamius to treat you the same way in that game as here when in that game you're literally scum partners and over here AT LEAST one of you is town and literally doesnt know the other person's alignment?! LOL!

I'm sorry, what?

I have no clue what you are saying.

To reiterate what I am saying about Ankamius:
I felt her play in Minuet's Trio, a pungame of hers, was

different than here

. Thus a townread.
I felt her reads synchronizing to mine at a point in this game was

indicative of town

. That same thing happened in mhsmith's game.

I have felt doubt on her alignment because she has reversed on the correct pushes at the most inopportune times.
I have felt doubt on her alignment because her reasons for doubting me, for suspecting me, are based around factors she knows from personal experience are not alignment indicative, and quite the opposite, if anything are indicative of town. (Namely, she has seen me do the exact things I am doing this game in mhsmith's game, where she knows I was town.)
Those suspicions may have held some merit when mhsmith's game was ongoing as it was plausible I drew pun in both games thus the similarity between my play in that game and my play in this game.

But then that game ended and it was shown I was town.

Thus the doubt on her alignment.

[Punreader]

everyone has positive interactions = looks towny EXCEPT punreader. this may be confirmation bias but i think i'm right here.

What.

it means that I have ISOed all remaining living players and believe that they have interactions with flipped scum that are unlikely to be indicative of being scumpartners.

Yes, I know what those words mean.

My statement stands.

What.

both projectmatt and mariaR gave minimal resistance to punreader's pushes, almost as if they're

letting him

do it. i don't recall them trying to squirm their way out or do something weaselly like what a typical scum would, if caught by town.

Distinctly false on both accounts. Both tried; both failed.

evidence please. i'm ISO'd them both and have found no evidence to support this claim.

Sorry, I've no interest in providing this as it is a distraction from punhunting.

I will provide it when I get to that point in my (re)readthrough of the game.

Not a moment sooner.

Every pointless question you ask me delays me one step further from that end.

[Punreader]

so why give special attention to Ankamius instead of Dunnstral who was literally in the same game, and evidently mislynch bait, getting noosed Day 4?

Because Ankamius and I have a stronger interaction with one another.

Dunnstral's just another scummer to me. I keep meta on him, sure, yes, but he's otherwise fairly forgettable. Not very memorable. Until you just now brought it up, him being in that game was a fact I did not recall. I remember his games in passing, but put no special focus on them because he's just another player to me.

Ankamius is more than just another player to me; I would call Ankamius a friend and a good player to work with in a game. I don't really synchronize with Dunnstral, I don't really pay attention to Dunnstral, I don't really have any real reason to interact with Dunnstral in any way because he's fairly average. Ankamius on the other hand I consider remarkably competent. I trust in her competency and her skills, so I pay attention to her more than I do others.

Of course she gets special attention; she has proven she's worth the extra attention.

[Punreader]

it's a pity that

your own reasons

above for doubting ankamius are also not alignment indicative, to some extent.

Yes, which is why Ankamius has remained a townread of mine.

I am quite aware that my reasons for doubting Ankamius are, more than likely, paranoia.

It is why I haven't been sharing them until now. I do not share paranoia-based reads because if they are paranoia then it is probably worth ignoring.

But with the play in the last little while, from Ankamius prioritizing a finished game over this one to her stances once here, it was worth at least a mention of where I have been on her and why my townread isn't as strong as it once was.

She is still a townread.

She is not as strong of a townread as I had before, and thus, not as strong of a townread as I would prefer.

[Punreader]

i just want to see your slot flipped and dead! it'll also be really good, because, we're 6 at evens and it'll be MYLO which is worse than LYLO, unless I can a protective quest to work and also block a kill, which is tough too

Yeah the problem there is I am the singular source of a method to get off of mylo.

I am considering not announcing my hide and deliberately trying to target the nightkill, just to provide a 3p lylo if we don't lynch correctly today. (A change from my prior strategy of targeting players the pun would have to go out of their way to nightkill.)

[Punreader]

@pun surely you finding the evidence that maria and projectmatt did fight your pushes does help find that last scum. Maybe not for you finding the last scum but it could help rmoj (and maybe others) clear you as town.

The evidence exists with context not available by iso. That is why it is not worth doing now, and is something quite easy to do with a (re)read of the game. MariaR in particular is a scummer who fairly often does not utilize the quote tag, thus, making it particularly difficult to find full context for her given actions/statements, but even projectmatt's content is not readily obvious through an iso.

If it were, then I'd pull it up right now. It'd just take too much time for me to locate manually.

But I know for a fact it exists. I know it exists because I was there when it happened and I remember it happening and everyone should be able to remember similarly.

[Punreader]

I think that I can solve the problems people have with me in one sentence:
You are afraid of what I CAN do, rather than thinking about what I WOULD do.
It is plenty true, I CAN do the things that I have this game as pun. It is well within the realms of my theoretical capabilities. Simply because my play style is versatile enough that ANYTHING is within my capacity. I could do the things I've done this game as pun. I still wouldn't.

I pushed Ouroboros. I COULD push the player I intended to night kill; that doesn't mean that I WOULD. Quite the opposite.
I COULD double bus for the towncred.
That doesn't mean that I WOULD, least of all given my track record as the last living pun. (I lose 90% of those games.)

I COULD choose to let Ankamius live.
That doesn't mean that I WOULD.
I COULD hard defend multiple mislynch baits, from Real men to wilky to Alchemist.
That doesn't mean I WOULD.

CAN, versus WOULD, is literally all you need.
The concerns about me are a combination of burden of pun proficiency, appeal to fear, and violating Occam's razor.

[Punreader]

I think that I can solve the problems people have with me in one sentence:
You are afraid of what I CAN do, rather than thinking about what I WOULD do.
It is plenty true, I CAN do the things that I have this game as pun. It is well within the realms of my theoretical capabilities. Simply because my play style is versatile enough that ANYTHING is within my capacity. I could do the things I've done this game as pun. I still wouldn't.

I pushed Ouroboros. I COULD push the player I intended to night kill; that doesn't mean that I WOULD. Quite the opposite.
I COULD double bus for the towncred.
That doesn't mean that I WOULD, least of all given my track record as the last living pun. (I lose 90% of those games.)

I COULD choose to let Ankamius live.
That doesn't mean that I WOULD.
I COULD hard defend multiple mislynch baits, from Real men to wilky to Alchemist.
That doesn't mean I WOULD.

CAN, versus WOULD, is literally all you need.
The concerns about me are a combination of burden of pun proficiency, appeal to fear, and violating Occam's razor.

Since I typed this on my phone during my lunch break, I rushed a little on my points. With extra time at my disposal, I wanted to reiterate the differences between CAN, and WOULD, with their ties to (violating) Occam's Razor and the fallacies of Burden of Proficiency and Appeal to Fear.

I will begin by emphasizing: not all my actions fall under 'CAN'; I must confess there are plenty which undoubtedly classify as 'WOULD'. I'd have to do a post-by-post of my iso to list them all, but at least two notable 'WOULD' instances come to my mind from memory:

On D2, I defended Wraith, the mislynch, enough to qualify as a defense, but not enough to save him. (I am quite aware of the irony inherent in this, given I used that very same accusation in my cases against projectmatt and MariaR; I called both pun that white knighted the mislynch because they knew he was flipping town, in spite of me being guilty of no different.) Though I can theoretically justify this as being new to the game at the time (thus, not informed/caught up to a degree where I could push stances harder) and being V/LA at the time of his lynch, these would serve as little more than excuses, not changing that this qualifies as something I WOULD do as pun.

On the night OnTheMark died, we are fairly certain he blocked either myself or davesaz. If I were pun, then I'd automatically know via my successful nightkill of OTM that davesaz was the block, thus, conftown. Lynching a player that I know should be by all rights conftown is something I absolutely WOULD do as pun, so it fits the mold.

I must own up to those, because they are simple undeniable facts; I not only COULD, but WOULD do those things as pun. However, these confessions of mine serve to illustrate a point, so you can more easily contrast them with actions I COULD do, but WOULDN'T.

This is, by far, not a complete list, but to cover some key areas of the game and my contributions, let's start with the previously mentioned death of Ouroboros. No matter what angle you approach it from, the conclusion will remain the same.

I was pushing Ouroboros on D2. This is an easily-shown, proven fact. I was pushing them with strength such that they were my strongest suspect. That they were my strongest suspect may not be shown objectively, but that they were

among

my strongest pushes is an objective fact and I have little reason to lie about pushing dead town. So I am telling you, they were my main suspects.

I COULD have done this, while planning to nightkill them. Let's assume it was based on their play, the most likely reason for me to nightkill a player. RadiantCowbells is a fierce player to deal with, who was likely to lock onto at least one additional pun, and was widely townread by most players, giving me incentive to shoot there.

But the death of Ouroboros necessitated my reads changing; as they were a suspect of mine that ate the nightkill, this left me in a position where I was proven, objectively, to be wrong, requiring a reset of my reads. This is a tactic I hold an aversion to, generally speaking, when pun. So in this instance, from the angle of it being a play-based nightkill, it is something I COULD do, but WOULDN'T do.

That is not the only reason they could have died, of course. You could argue their death was due to their role. Unfortunately, that runs into a problem. The moment MariaR was recruited, N1, their ability was compromised, fully nullifying their power. They were automatically a glorified VT at that point, and I as pun would be aware of this fact.

There is one final angle you can approach this from. Ouroboros was the N2 nightkill in order to protect MariaR. By having the original holder of the role dead, MariaR's compromising of the neighborhood would be easier to cover up. It would be quite easy to keep it from condemning her, simply by controlling the information released and by not letting projectmatt die and by getting rid of davesaz. (Who, notably, was the counterwagon to projectmatt and a viable mislynch candidate that day.)

If that were the case, you run into a violation of Occam's Razor: how do you then explain the above being the plan...and yet me doing the one thing which would sabotage that plan? By pushing projectmatt as being MariaR's punbuddy, and hard-pushing for his lynch, knowing it would expose her, I would then be ruining the whole point of the Ouroboros nightkill. The simplest answer then, is that the scenario where I as pun nightkilled them to hide MariaR only to expose MariaR is not the case.

This also ignores my natural order of operations. I do see RadiantCowbells as a threat and AnonymousGhost is respectably competent, but given my extensive game history with both Jingle and EspeciallyTheLies, that hydra would be my top kill priority.

Yes

, they did die, a night later, N3. But were I pun, I'd have strongman killed them N2. This would serve multiple purposes: get their role out of the game with either no more vigs or only one rather than two vigs, get them out of the game before they could pin me down, and also leaving me unopposed in terms of mechanical theory discussion.

When it comes to projectmatt, no player pushed him harder or more consistently than I did. He was my secondary punread next to Ouroboros on D2, and my primary punread from the onset of D3. (My votes exclusively alternated between him and MariaR.) It is within my capacity to push a strong punread on a punbuddy, as I know their alignment already and thus know what to hone in on. However, while I CAN do this, it is something I have a high level of aversion to.

The reason I have a high level of aversion to it is because the earlier my punteam goes down, the harder it is to run the gauntlet of town roles. A single town player can end up screwing me over by nothing but sheer luck, if night actions work against my favor. There's also value to be had in peer review. Though I am generally competent enough to steer a punteam, even I use the feedback of teammates to determine our course of action. By removing my teammates, I am removing that aspect from the game.

Additionally, projectmatt was the pun player the pun most needed alive. His rolecop would allow the pun to know players' exact roles, as to determine their threat level. Not only that, but MariaR going down first wouldn't implicate him; him going down first condemned MariaR. As pun, I could have swayed people to lynch MariaR first, as her role would under my leadership have been expended N2.

Over the course of the game, we've had wagons on REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, Ramicus/YT2980/Prof Fridays, wilky, and Alchemist21. (I can point to each if you'd prefer.) Every single one of those wagons, I have fought adamantly against. I've been the strongest defender of each and every single one of them. While I CAN do this as pun, there is such a thing as backing myself into a corner. The more players I defend, the more difficult it is for me to navigate the gauntlet...especially with dead punbuddies.

The more players I keep from being lynched, the more likely it is that I myself will be lynched. Defending one or two players is something I'd define as smart. Defending almost every living player in the game when they have been wagoned is something I suppose I COULD do, but it's not something I WOULD do, because as pun I need to play to my wincon and saying "all the town players are town" doesn't exactly let me do that, now, does it?

I COULD have left Ankamius alive in spite of Ankamius being the player most threatening since D4. After all, OnTheMark needed to die regardless of who was pun; Kaede Akamatsu was conftown who has experience with me and thus needed to die at some point before endgame; Alchemist21 was going to become conftown today.

But Ankamius is a player nobody has shown any interest in lynching; Anakmius is a player people have shown interest in sheeping; Ankamius is singlehandedly the player in this list who is most likely to figure the game out. Additionally, a conftown Alchemist doesn't add anything given as how he's not a strong player and I could always kill him tonight as pun rather than yesterday, since what would a conftown Alchemist really do? He's not a leader by nature and even were he, he wouldn't lead the town to lynching me. Leaving him alive benefits me as pun especially if it means I get to kill Ankamius first. So I WOULDN'T leave Ankamius alive.

A factor I didn't bring up before:
If I am pun, then you are, inherently, calling wilky town.
This runs into a problem.
wilky has consistently claimed his action has failed.

If his action has, consistently, failed, we know the last pun must have either a redirector role of some sort or a roleblocking role of some sort.
My claim of hider does not allow for this easily.
It is within my pun capacity to run with a claim that I was given. It is within my pun capacity to generate details of a fakeclaim that has some framework of being moderator-provided. However, while those are things I CAN do, they are not things I can do

to the skill level displayed

, when I lack flavor knowledge. (My knowledge of Fallout comes exclusively from TVTropes. If this game were themed after, say, Batman, then I'd be able to generate details of a fakeclaim without the mod, but with no such frame to work off of, I can do no such thing.)

Since I cannot make up a fakeclaim of this sort without help, it is then safe to assume that I either am telling the truth about my claim or that I had moderator assistance.
If the moderator made a fakeclaim that was entirely different from the actual role, that would be poor design as it would not actually be a claim that was safe to make since it would be easy to get caught.

It is then safe to assume that my role is either exactly as I describe, or of a similar type.

Yet calling me pun with this role runs into a problem.
If my role is exactly as I describe or of a similar type, then by definition, it cannot be of a redirector/roleblocker type that we know to exist via wilky being town.

So for me to be pun here, I'd need to completely fabricate an entirely unrelated claim to my own role. This is something I struggle to see as possible, but I can give you the benefit of the doubt in saying I CAN do it. It would simply be a violation of Occam's Razor by going a completely complicated route when it would be much, much, much simpler for me as pun to simply say TChill's hider claim was a gambit to disguise my actual role.

This isn't even a complete list.
But saying I could do those things is a technical truth, but an actual fallacy. Fearing what I COULD do, burdening my slot with what I am capable of doing as pun, ignores how all of these and more point to why I WOULDN'T do the things I have done this game and the pun wouldn't do the things they've been shown to do (at least in the order they did them).

[Punreader]

okay, the only way I allow this change of heart onto punreade (and not lynch him) r is ONLY IF punreader AGREES to hide behind ME tonight, so, if I die ( i probably will) his slot will be cleared and that's one less thing to worry about.

You are a moron through-and-through, you know that, right?

This was already my plan, except I was planning to do it without it being announced to the world. You were objectively the best hide to make if aiming to kill myself, and given the suspicion on me (which frankly I don't think is justified but I can't do much about existing), it was the natural choice to make.

Now that it IS announced to the world, the use of it is a mere fraction of what it was before. Nonetheless, yes, I intend to follow through with the plan all the same in spite of how you ruined the potency of it.

[Punreader]

Well, let's see, if Punreader is essentially volunteering to kill himself by hiding behind a probable kill target, I don't see why he shouldn't just be lynched if we think there's a chance he's scum?

Because I get the game off of mylo and onto lylo?

And if I fail to die, you can always no-lynch with me opting not to hide such that you get lylo that way?

In short, if we lynch someone who is not myself, we have a shot at instantly ending the game in a town win.
If we lynch town, we have a very large shot at the game going to lylo with me dead via my role overnight.

If the pun let REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE live, that is not only one extra day for him to use his quest, but also one suspect they are forced to kill. (And if they no-kill, we gain a lynch!) This gives him further chance to prove his role, and further chance for the pun to be backed into a corner due to it.

If the above scenario happens, we end up tomorrow in a 4p mylo. We can no-lynch, with the caveat that I agree to no-hide. Once more, the pun are forced to nightkill someone, and REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE hands out one final quest. And this whole time, if wilky is left alive, he has one last investigation he can attempt to get off.

This is not absolutely foolproof as-is, but it is a fine starting point. Action coordination may be able to further hone in on a winning strategy from it.

[Punreader]

Pun did you look at my setup stuff

Yes, but I gave my thoughts on the setup long ago.

I maintain 6 VTs is less likely than 5.
I maintain the setup with all the power roles telling the truth is more likely than the setup with one lying.
I maintain that we are underpowered with 6 VTs and a lying role. DOUBLY so if there's a pun redirector/roleblocker.

It is not impossible for a roleclaim to be pun.

It is simply quite unlikely.

[Punreader]

Pun did you look at my setup stuff

Yes, but I gave my thoughts on the setup long ago.

I maintain 6 VTs is less likely than 5.
I maintain the setup with all the power roles telling the truth is more likely than the setup with one lying.
I maintain that we are underpowered with 6 VTs and a lying role. DOUBLY so if there's a pun redirector/roleblocker.

It is not impossible for a roleclaim to be pun.

It is simply quite unlikely.

I should mention that quite literally the only reason I would have for suspecting wilky would be by judging via play rather than role, and simple POE.

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE may be cleared by role, but were he not, he would still be a top townread by his play.
I still maintain you, Ankamius, are more likely town than not.
Prof Fridays is perhaps my strongest play-based townread at the moment.

By play, that leaves only wilky and Dunnstral.

Judging off of the setup rather than off of play, wilky is definitively cleared.

This is one reason I favor the Dunnstral lynch. (And also why I plan to die with my hide if Dunnstral isn't town.) Because he is all I have left.

[Punreader]

So... almost full knowledge of the setup doesn't change or clarify anything?

Why would it, when full knowledge of the setup now is almost identical to my prediction of the setup?

What knowledge do we have now that is different from the information I had when I made those statements?

I have long held the belief the game had around 2-4 VTs. I know now the minimum is 5, but I have said since the moment of massclaim that I have a hard time buying 6, because it would necessitate a town PR be lying and thus absent from the setup and it would give us an extra VT placing the game, a double-reduction in the town's power.

This double-reduction is the important factor. It is a triple-reduction if you believe that the last pun is a redirector/roleblocker-type role. The town has one less PR, the town has one more VT, and maybe the pun have one extra PR. Each of these swing balance further towards punsided, and I have difficulty buying it. I have since D2.

This stance hasn't changed in days, nor does it have reason to. What has changed since then?

OnTheMark, our roleblocker, flipped, but we knew his role was real anyway.
Kaede Akamatsu, our IC, flipped, but we knew Kaede was an IC for self-obvious reasons.
Alchemist21 flipped, but his role (albeit not alignment) was proven by Impossibear earlier in the game.
davesaz, the miller, flipped, confirming that he is that power role. This is the closest we have had to a flip changing my stances, and yet all it did was further support my hypothesis of a low-VT town.
Kokichi Oma, a VT, flipped, confirming an extra VT to be in the game, but by virtue of assuming we have only one pun left in the game his flip does nothing either way to confirm or disprove anything.

The extra information might help you, but it doesn't do me any good because the information gleaned from the new flips, I had already discerned day phases ago.

All I see is confirmation of facts I already knew and was taking for granted.

Why are these things suddenly groundbreaking to you? They've been there the whole game for me.

[Punreader]

Also @pun how exactly is rmoj cleared by role?

Ironically? By you, of all people.

I would like to point out that the last pun cannot both be a loud public fruit vendor AND a roleblocker/redirector/whatever causes wilky's role to fail; the last pun cannot both be an ability inventor AND a roleblocker/redirector/whatever causes wilky's role to fail. (Do I need to explain this logic to everyone, or do you already follow along as to why this is the case?)

This means that if you believe wilky to be town, you MUST believe REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE to be town as well. (I confess vice-versa is not the case; REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE can be town with wilky as pun.)

I decided I'd go into the reasoning for this in detail.

If you assume wilky isn't town, then wilky's pun and automatically REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE would thus be town.
If you assume wilky is town, then wilky is telling the truth about his role and the results failing. We thus have confirmation the last pun has a redirector/roleblocker type role of some sort causing wilky to fail.

If REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE's role is as REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE claims, then its usage is confirmed multiple times already. We know who he has targeted using this role each and every single night.
If the mod allows the pun to both action and kill, this allows him to do both.
However, I do not believe the mod would allow REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE to have the role he claims,

and

be a redirector/roleblocker/whatever's interfering with wilky, and even if I did buy that GuyInFreezer would permit this, past experienced based around his previously modded games would indicate that he would not permit the pun to use

three

action in a single night: REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE's claimed role, the redirector/roleblocker/whatever's interfering with wilky,

and

the nightkill.

Thus, if you assume wilky is town, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE must be town.

If REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE's role is a public fruit vend as his detractors claim, then its usage is

still

confirmed multiple times already. We know who he has targeted using the role each and every single night.
If the mod allows the pun to both action and kill, this allows him to do both.

However, this still would not mean he should be able to use

three

actions: the nightkill, the public fruit vend, AND the redirector/roleblocker/whatever's interfering with wilky.

Thus, as long as you assume there's only one pun alive, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is conftown.

I am not willing to assume there's two pun alive; my working assumption is only one, and thus, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is conftown.

As an aside, I'd like to amend my prior post.
wilky should not claim his investigation target

unless

we had locked in his investigation target as the lynch. (Locking in a player for the lynch should not result in the player being instantly lynched, as we'd need to ensure Alchemist21 was on the wagon anyway.)

This still holds true.

Spoiler: Punreader doesn't die overnight, campaigns to lynch wilky

Hard to be a spoiler when I've made it quite explicit that is what I would do if I lived to see lylo.

However, do note that I mean

lylo

.

I refuse to lynch

any

player in mylo.

[Punreader]

Punreader thinks it's just Dunnstral

Not quite.
I think it's Dunnstral and that he's the better lynch today, but if it's not him I would think wilky.
wilky's lynch for me is something I am willing to vote on, but only as a compromise of last resort with my justification being confirmation of his role being real.

Since deadline is coming up, that is something I shall do tomorrow or two days from now.

[Punreader]

I will respond in kind if you go into a lot of the processes you analyze today, you're far better at doing that kind of thing without having direct input to work off of and this in general should hopefully be enough for us to lock each other's alignments

I'm honestly not sure how to give more analysis than I already have, in spite of knowing I've not given nearly enough.

Call it analyzer's block, if you will.

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is locktown to me for a combination of reasons.
His claimed role is proven. In an environment where there is only one pun left, for him to be pun given wilky's failures would require him to use three actions during each night.

His play, even on D1, rang town to me. When he was getting wagoned and flipped out, the emotional rage displayed seemed genuine and indicative not of pun afraid to be lynched, but of town genuinely thinking he should never be lynched. Then there was his fakeclaim on me today; it was literally suicidal for him as pun to make, and yet he made it anyway. His handling of that entire situation has felt incredibly town, and his continued idiocy in insisting I be locked into something I had planned to do better than he allows is also something I think indicates town, because I understand the process used.

Prof Fridays is a slot that I've had good feelings about for a long time. I always thought that the Ramicus-projectmatt interactions were not indicative of pun-pun. The way Ramicus was wagoned felt pundriven and not in a bussing sort of way. Then, YT's constant analysis of the game, while quirky, felt like it was being driven in such a way as to not have a pun agenda in mind. His confidence in Kokichi Oma's flip did seem slightly overblown, but the replace-out felt entirely like the opposite, something which frankly was nigh-conftowning the slot in of itself.

Of course we don't know

why

he replaced out/

what caused

the replace-out, yet it still seems like something that doesn't match from any angle as pun. And from there, Prof Friday's analysis has been incredibly town as well. Prof Friday came into the game with analysis that was written overnight, before the death of players. Though this is something doable as pun, the way he messed up indicates to me that it was not something done in a PT; it was typed in a PM.

It's circumstantial, I realize, and relies on things I know I frankly shouldn't clear someone for, but I feel like I should be clearing him for it anyway. Then there's his analysis over the course of the day; I still feel as if he is the slot most trying to gamesolve, more even than you or myself. The effort he has put in seems highly indicative not of a player trying to make it to lylo, but of a player trying to figure things out.

From there, my reads become more of a mesh.

[Punreader]

Can you go over day five specifically when you get a chance?

Sure.

In the mean time, just in case, to make sure we have a lynch before deadline:
VOTE: wilky.

[Punreader]

Can you go over day five specifically when you get a chance?

Sure.

I started by reading all of every post.

By the end that had degenerated into *scroll, scroll, scroll
scroll, scroll, scroll
scroll, scroll, scroll*.

So I am sorry, I cannot say I gave that day a proper read. What I can say is, it loosely reinforces my existing thoughts. Everyone has reason to be town, but Dunnstral has the weakest reasons for being town. Everyone has some reason to be pun, but Dunnstral has the strongest reasons. Second to Dunnstral is wilky, as second-weakest townread reasoning and second-most evidence for being pun.

I tried to find some amazing insight in there, but if it's there, I didn't see it.

[Punreader]

I'd like to point out that all the talk about endgame is fuel for weaker pun players to use as ammo.
Obviously, this is irrelevant in the case of a stronger player rolling pun (as any sufficiently skilled enough pun player needs not rely on it as they already know these things), but the current line of discussion I feel is not productive to a town wincon.

[Punreader]

I hope this is game over

It is, but not in the way you were hoping.

There are two pun alive; Prof Friday and I just won.

For the record I really am a non-weak hider, but Prof Friday is a Alien and has been targeting wilky each night.

[Punreader]

I'm actually surprised nobody noticed that I distanced but never voted the Prof Fridays slot and progressively increased the strength of my townread on the slot, and that they basically reciprocated.

[Punreader]

17 players is a 4 scum game, 21 players is a 5 scum game, this game has 18 players

Blame GuyInFreezer.

I didn't make the broken setup; I just exploited it.

Oh well, I made a huge mistake on day two that probably cemented the late game loss so I can't really complain about it

If it makes a difference to you, Ank, I really did want to nightkill you, I just never got a chance because I had better kills to make. Safer kills that weren't neon signs pointing to me being pun. There's high praise of you mixed with healthy dosages of fear in the pun PT.

[Punreader]

How did you two react to me supporting you on dave

Cried tears of joy that it actually worked.

I'm also quite surprised you didn't notice that I used a classical old trick there; put all stock into one punread and then continuously be lost afterwards to justify mislynching prior townreads.

[Punreader]

I think the part that fooled me more was your overall lack of presence day six and knowing that it wasn't AI

It wasn't. I'd have been just as inactive as town. Arguably more.

I do confess to overextending myself a little, so I am quite pleased I have one less commitment on my hands.

I am sad the town didn't win since you played more than well enough for it and at every stage I felt guilty for lynching these players that I knew I should by all rights be defending.

Alas. 'Tis what it is.

[Punreader]

Anyways

I think if I had tried to be a rock for Kaede and pushed my wraith townread harder, I think the game would've been a lot different. The Wraith lynch was devastating in effect since it meant Impossibear had to push for the projectmatt lynch day three instead of having it day two and having them be around for a push on... potentially Ramcius?

I mean I did tell you Wraith was town.

Of course my plan was to push Ouroboros instead of Wraith, but being V/LA without advanced knowledge of the gamestate while you're eager for a lynch will do that. (My punbuddies were rather unhelpful in regards to helping me catch up. Which I never properly did, mind you. I coulda during the night, but I always got distracted by other obligations, so I really never did read the game.)

[Punreader]

Nah I don't think town deserves a win, the early game was a massive mess and the ones of us that were left didn't pick up the pieces well enough

That's because the players most critical to cohesion, minus yourself, were also the players who held the strongest roles in the game. So their deaths had the unfortunate side-effect of disrupting town cohesion.

I do hold that the town really does deserve to win this game.

It's just that with this lynch they didn't.

[Punreader]

You never would've gotten away with an Ouroboros lynch, he's the type of player I don't generally townread, so having that strong of a read was going to stop me from ever agreeing to it

Well how was I supposed to know that given you had an identically-strong townread on projectmatt?

[Punreader]

You don't unless you know my history with both of them, which is why it's probably good that you didn't get to go that route

Well it ended up good for

me

...

[Punreader]

You don't unless you know my history with both of them, which is why it's probably good that you didn't get to go that route

Well it ended up good for

me

...

Tbh if I had caught you on day two amongst the locktown reads a lot of people had on you, that would've probably made me even more useless after the townblock dwindled

Were people townreading me that much on D2? I honestly thought it wasn't until D3 or D4 that started to happen.

[Punreader]

They're going to claim it was a reaction test of course, I think it looks like a scum gambit

Oh really? And what, pray tell, is this alleged scum gambit?

Now that I think about it, your response to my setup questions were scummy too

It really wasn't. That's the towniest answer I could give because it's the truest answer. Nothing changed, so nothing did.

If it's a town gambit, then it should be obvious who scum is by now for them

Sure is. Dunnstral's reaction has been setting up lylo this entire time; your reaction elevated you to conftown status. Prof Friday's reaction is also indicative of town but not nearly as strongly.

[Punreader]

(I was hoping Prof Friday would play along though, as doing so would have been even more indicative of town elevating him the same way Ank was. Oh well.)

[Punreader]

So basically
You did a gambit and it just amplified the solve we already had

Unfortunately, yes, it only amplified what was already there. The gambit had the potential to do far more than that. Had REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE shown up, his feedback would have been tremendously valuable; had Prof Fridays played along, I'd be conftowning the slot; I am not immune to being wrong, so it was always possible that Dunnstral was town, and if he is in fact town, the gambit could have given a chance for him to show it, yet this did not happen.

I stand by it not being a waste of time though, given as how your reaction elevates you to a level of conftown not even REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE possesses; I don't see your reaction being something pun could ever fake.

While you were already a townread, the gambit did help solidify it.

[Punreader]

Yeah, I was forgetting that actually

I'd like to state for the record that Dunnstral is using evidence that is objectively proven wrong to make his case, and that once the evidence is shown objectively wrong, he does not reevaluate and continues insisting his story is true regardless of (now lack of) backing.

On a separate note,

We'll see what happens

This is not a line a town player speaks ever. It is exclusively the line of a pun player that knows precisely what will happen.

[Punreader]

Also, Punreader, I have no idea what an Alien is, so...there's that lol.

That was meant to be my signal to you to play along. It is a role which I am one of the few people to know of; my intent was for you to understand its obscurity being something GuyInFreezer would be unlikely to know of, thus, something originating from myself.