Mini Normal 2016 | Otters vs. Penguins | Endgame

[PenguinPower]

Votecount 2.08

Nosferatu

(5): Tommy Egan, Gosrir Elmer Odels, Tchill13, Aristophanes, Ircher

Tommy Egan

(4): BlueBloodedToffee, wavemode, Nosferatu, teacher

Performer

(2): Garmr, Not_Mafia

Garmr

(1): Performer

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2018-07-05 09:00:00)

Mod Notes:

• Performer V/LA on weekends
• teacher V/LA on weekends

[Nosferatu]

>.>

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Hey guys,

Which wagon composition is scummier?

[wavemode]

i dont really think about things like that

but at face value i'd say a pretty even balance

though i'm sure you disagree

[Performer]

Welcome, ircher.
Have been dealing with another game & I come back to 5 more pages overnight, with garmr who seems to be trolling with nm's avatar. What the ??

Doing catchup.

[Gosrir Elmer Odels]

I've fallen a bit behind with this game, I've been having a lot on my plate in the last few days. It should be better from next week on. Anyway, I'm fine with lynching Nos or Tommy.

@TC: (1) the Garmr vs Nos on the page on which I voted pushed me over the edge, & (2) the teacher wagon didn't seem to go anywhere at that moment. There's no point parking my vote achieving nothing. BTW, if you think one of WM, Lefty & teacher are scum, then it must be teacher. WM is surely town (I started the day with that), & Lefty/NM also very likely, although I want to go through an ISO just to make sure. However, even though I remember thinking teacher was scum while reading his readlist, after just having read these last few pages, I'm not so sure now.

[Performer]

off topic:

That game was awful, don’t bring it back up.

I AM NO GARMR I AM KAINTEPES

Ugh , that game... we had mariomaniac, you, not_mafia, me, and others.
Kaintepes ended up being scum (unsurprisingly) with soapbar and someone else.

I’ll go back to voting you out of spite if you keep this up.

Hahaha ok I will be serious I needed to have a laugh this game.

---------

why is this town so eager to lose

No.

[Performer]

Tommy has been pushing on nos for so long, and I have slowly read through bbt's case on him

VOTE: tommy

I have nos as tr from the nos v garm long debate. Still feeling uncomfortable about garm being town from today though.

I still feel the same about my points from 1083 as well:

I don't see how nos and garm are same sided, and tommy and gosrir don't seem same sided either based on my ISO of tommy.

[Performer]

Ircher I really don't think nos is scum from what we've seen . I have no clue what not_mafia is doing voting me.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

GEO, do you think both Tommy and Nos can be scum together?

[Ircher]

Ircher I really don't think nos is scum from what we've seen . I have no clue what not_mafia is doing voting me.

I haven't really caught up yet (haven't had the chance). People were suggesting either Nosferatu or you, so I put my vote on Nosferatu because I think the probability that you are being misread is pretty high.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Ircher, have a look at Tommy and then my case on him and give me your thoughts when you catch up please.

[teacher]

that would require scum to vote consecutively which doesn't usually happen either.

Does anyone disagree with this? I certainly didnt, and had been using the same thoughts in my VCA. I repeated the same point, on the same page, when doing wagon analysis, and nobody blinked at that either. Finally, its validated by all three of the recent normal-13 D1 town lynches. But then.....

if performer or garmr flip scum byron could very well be scum that got off because he didn't want 2, possibly 3, scum on the wagon.

IS this why Byron got off after the claim? That way all 3 scum weren't on the wagon d1? Now this is a stretch for sure. It's feasible though.

there's definitely a possibility of a garmr/performer team atm.

Seriously, WTF?!. In what world do two scum vote the same slot sequentially together, and then stay together for 500+ posts, much less all three scum vote together? Were you drunk when you typed this?

****

This makes no sense at all. I struggled to figure out a motivation for it. And then I reread your votes. These two came directly in order:

VOTE: nos

VOTE: nos

You only need to vote once for it to be effective. But the bizarre non-sense above and the double voting makes a hell of a lot of sense if you want to make it seem less like youre a team with performer (by scumreading them at a time when they are a wagon) but not following the logic of your words.

@Tchill - Seriously, man, what were you thinking?
@Board - am I way overreading this in thinking it makes a lot of sense for that team?

[Performer]

In terms of voting sequentially, I think it's definitely possible for scum teams to do that . I've heard that to keep suspicion off them, they vote nonsequentially, but if they vote in sequence, I would believe that too. I seriously don't think chill if scum here, just looks at his ISO, He doesn't look like he's carrying some agenda.

[Tchill13]

In what world do scum do exactly what you expect them to do?

[wavemode]

Seriously, WTF?!. In what world do two scum vote the same slot sequentially together, and then stay together for 500+ posts, much less all three scum vote together? Were you drunk when you typed this?

this happens all the time dude...

[teacher]

Im new to normals, but I checked the previous lynch wagons and had not seen it. I guess I will take your word for it, but that makes me want to revisit my associational analysis since I had based part of my reads of the assumption they would not.

[Ircher]

Page 1:

Nothing of interest.

Page 2:

1. 30 by BlueBloodedToffee:

Feels a bit too buddy-buddy with Byron tbqh.

2. 39 by Performer: "Lurkers make me suspicious" -->

The game started like what? 1-2 hours ago? This isn't really scum-indicative though.

3. 43 by Lefty: "This is a regular thing on MS?" -->

Yeah, alternate accounts are highly tolerated and fairly regular on Mafiascum. Whether that should be the case is to be determined... I think they aren't really an issue provided they aren't being used to circumvent bans or site rules.

4. 47 by Gustavo: "I’m down for a fast day. I’m getting ready to play a game that ends in 36 hours so I need practice." -->

Then why did you sign up for a game on Mafiascum? You realize that our days are long....

Page 3:

1. 54 by Lefty: "You are creeping out of ~reaction testing territory imo." -->

This comment comes too soon imo.

2. 55 by BlueBloodedToffee: "I'd like it to take off and potentially lead to a lynch." -->

Why a lynch?

3. 68 by Nosferatu in response to 66 by Lefty: "not saying you couldn't" -->

Then what exactly are you getting at with the "y so serious?" comment in 65?

4. 71 by Teacher: "Im actually kind of inclined to agree. Last time I played with Town!BBT, they pushed a mislynch (me, grrrr) several times, but at least provided reasoning." -->

Poor use of meta.

5. 72 by Wavemode: "my point was, you're criticizing fluff posts "especially early", but early game when nobody has done anything yet is when i would say fluff posts are fine" -->

I like this post for town.

Page 4:

1. 75 by Garmr: "But on a serious note you seem to give off a buddy buddy vibe with your posts 26/39" -->

You are reading in too much; people are always more chill during RVS.

2. 77 by Gosrir Elmer Odels while referencing BlueBloodedToffee's signature: "I agree with this. But then why this:" -->

And, I think that following that signature is a great way to lose many games. If you are using meta properly, people won't be able to manipulate it nearly as well as most people expect. Sure, it happens, but meta isn't about looking at very specific behaviors and saying they *only* do that behavior as town or scum. It's about getting a baseline to read a person from; sure, someone may seem super scummy this game, but are they really scum or is it mostly a personality/playstyle thing? That's what meta is for.

3. 78 by BlueBloodedToffee: "I don't have much else to say on your wagon - but with the current gamestate I am even more inclined to push you now." -->

Not a huge fan of the extended push on Lefty, but it doesn't really seem scum-indicative.

4. 88 by Tchill13: "now this could be scum... You really expect a reason for pushing a wagon before page 5?" -->

You heard from teacher that they are newer aside. That aside though, I really don't think it's a bad thing to expect some kind of reasoning, even if it is really weak, by page 5. It's definitely not something I'm gonna vote someone for.

5. 94 by Garmr: "Also why are you town reading BBT. Nothing in your speech implies you think BBT is town at most it should be a null read. What town actions taken by BBT justify a BBT town read in your eyes, especially if you are giving him the benefit of a doubt (which implies you think his actions are scummy but giving him a pass)? Being a easy mislynch isn't a legit reason to town read someone." -->

I agree with pretty much all of this.

6. 96 by Wavemode: "This actually reminds of a mini where boon vastly overreacted and self-voted his early RVS wagon, then was largely left alone by this very reasoning " -->

Any particular reason you bring this up besides for the lolz?

Page 5:

1. 103 by BlueBloodedToffee: "The voters on the Performer, Gustavo and Garmr wagons should choose between myself and teacher. Those are the two wagons of choice (hint: choose teacher!) Let's go!" -->

Why are you trying to force a 1v1? Also, the teacher wagon is bad imo.

2. 118 by Wavemode:

A reads list this early? Not sure what to make of that...

​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)

ByronVilla

Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)
Performer (+10%) - I don't think there really is enough from this slot to tell atm.

Garmr (0%) - Nothing to read them off of at the moment really.

Gosrir Elmer Odels (0%) - There is nothing to read them off of yet.

Gustavo

Aristophanes (0%) - Again, there is not anything to read them by at this point in the game.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Lefty

Not_Mafia (+51%) - I townread them for the way they approached their wagon early on.

Teacher (+50%) - I don't really understand the wagon on them, and I don't have an issue with what they've done so far. In fact, I think they are more likely town, but that is more of a gutread atm.

Wavemode (+45%) - 72 was a good post, but I'm not sure about 118.

Tchill13 (-35%) - 88 kinda struck me as bad...

Nosferatu (-40%) - I didn't like their dialogue with Lefty early on.

BlueBloodedToffee (-45%) - BBT's behavior so far just really feels off tbqh. For instance, I don't like the way they have been going about both the Lefty and the teacher wagon; I think they are trying to overemphasize it. Sure, I see the argument of trying to get the game going, but couldn't they at least give some reasoning?

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

(The above reads are based on those first 5 pages and those first 5 pages only.)

[Aristophanes]

Hey guys,

Which wagon composition is scummier?

Nos'

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Arsito, can you respond to me regarding your accusation?

[Tchill13]

Wtf are you doing doing a pg by pg analysis?

[Tchill13]

Im new to normals, but I checked the previous lynch wagons and had not seen it. I guess I will take your word for it, but that makes me want to revisit my associational analysis since I had based part of my reads of the assumption they would not.

Seemed like you knew what you were talking about when you accused me of being drunk.

[Tchill13]

Umm only reason I double voted nos was because I reset in between those votes and did multiple breakdowns of different players. I didn't know who I was voting before I did the breakdowns. This game had become quite dull and I was hardly keeping up with it.

[teacher]

I would never have imagined three scum voting sequentially and staying together, which is what your posts implied. I still can’t imagine it but have three slots telling me it’s possible. Before I say it’s not possible I want to research a broader swath of games. Let’s just say I am still dubious but wanted to pull back on how hard my statement came out before I do that research.

[Tchill13]

Hey guys,

Which wagon composition is scummier?

Nos'

Why nos?