Open 730: Donner Party [Terminado]

[Eragon]

4. UnrealSeal-
>108defends MM by saying they are noob town for hopping votes. Shades otter’s response and vote and then votes otter. I find this post wolfy
>112 I dont see the point of this at all
>114 blatant wolfy misrep saying otter posted directly after 101, otter posted at 105
>not a huge fan of 118, and I don’t like the stuff about Not_Mafia, seems a bit TMI tbh.
>129 spews both Lucky and Unreal town
>204 wtf is this post?? Betting money MM flips town. My question is, does scum make that post post-hammer

this is my stuff on Seal. and ignore the part about spewing both of them town(129) I was tired and it was a shit call.

I think it actually makes one of them scum.

so really I havent seen much towny stuff from them...

[AP]

Regarding Sando: I have him down as 100% Town. I did a reread during the night and concluded he can neither be the SK nor MM's partner.

Regarding Unreal: I can see him posting that EoD post after the hammer. It could be out of frustration he was too late to save his partner. It could also be "I'm sorry I couldn't get on the wagon for town credit, and I need to justify that".

Regarding the SK (whoever that might be): It is highly likely they are now known by either the Mafia or the Vig. The fact we only had one NK (i.e. 2 NKs were blocked) = someone hit the SK. Unless the SK themselves didn't kill, or both the SK and the Mafia targeted Blackstar; there's a missing NK even with the RB blocking one of the Vig/Mafia. This means the SK is likely going down tonight. (Funny fact: That would be less likely if we lynched the second Mafia today, in case it was them who tried to eat the SK last night).

so you think vig shot n1?

Maybe they did.. maybe they didn't. If I was them I would have.

if im reading this right there is a chance you have a chance at knowing who sk is then right?

Theory talk (because this is getting too obvious anyway):

1- You're

assuming

I'm the Vig (and I'm neither confirming nor denying this)
2- Based on that assumption you're assuming I acknowledge having acted last night

The answer to your question is still "maybe, maybe not", because even if I was the Vig I don't know whether I targeted the SK or the RB targeted me.

So, assuming I am the Vig (still hypothetical assumption) I am sure to retarget my N1 target tonight. The RB should

change their target

tonight.

If I'm not the Vig, the RB still needs to change their target tonight, and the Vig still needs to retarget their N1 target.

[Eragon]

I also need to go to sleep.

goodnight

[AP]

I'll sleep on this for tonight, and see who says what (of those who still didn't post today) when I login next, then decide. GN everyone.

[OkaPoka]

im assuming ur the vig because ur so insistent on vig nking night 1 and i dont think town would decide to nk n1 unless they there was a red flag

[LuckyOtter]

Welcome, replacements. Oka, stop PR hunting.

Eragon:
1. Seal's EOD post is NAI to me, if you want my opinion.
2. Why is Sando's 176 off-putting to you?
3. What is the point of including Blackstar in your reads?
4. MM voting your slot for inactivity is completely NAI for your slot. MM's vote was just to appear to be towny by getting people to talk. It could also have been an attempt to distance, or to say hey buddy wanna help me out here? It definitely doesn't clear you.
5. The suggestion that Sando is trying to get ejj lynched before he gets back from VLA is ludicrous
6. Your stance on me has changed from your initial post to 300. You had a pretty waffly read on me that seemed to conclude with me being town, and now you've not seen "much towny stuff" from me. Can you clarify/elaborate?

[LuckyOtter]

Oka, nice to see you again.

If you think meta is dumb, why is it one of the reasons you're voting NM?

Do you have any other reads yet? I promise not to scumread you this time for posting reads right away

[ManateeDude]

@AP

could you explain your top tier TR on Sando?

I'd rather call it a meta-gut mix, but if you ISO him you might actually see he's sticking his neck out too far he can't be the stand-alone scum (SK), and while he didn't push MM much he did specify him as one of two possible scums and never actually defended him or tried to redirect the pressure off him.

Thats what I think made them buddies, some soft pushing for some easy towncred.

[LuckyOtter]

I've seen a lot of people claim this about N_M and I'm yet to see the whole "he's good as town" ever materialise. I've only seen him troll as either alignment and it's just the amount of form of trolling that is NAI. Early votes on MM is town-indicative of him, and believe it or not I'd say

the amount of discussion from him D1 was fairly townie too.

Forgot to ask about this earlier, but wut? You earlier:

N_M strikes me as outside scum-meta

, but I'm a far cry from an expert on that one, and Math is the one I've heard most discussion of NMs play from previously so I'd like more from both of them.

I'm not following.

[AP]

Thats what I think made them buddies, some soft pushing for some easy towncred.

But at the time MM wasn't in any serious trouble, and if it was for Town cred then he should've joined the wagon when it started to grow. If he didn't intend for it to be a bus then he could've defended him some.

[OkaPoka]

Oka, nice to see you again.

If you think meta is dumb, why is it one of the reasons you're voting NM?

Do you have any other reads yet? I promise not to scumread you this time for posting reads right away

oh im voting nm in spite of meta because he cant keep using meta to defend his play
honestly im kinda in a weird limbo with reads rn because im getting a lot of nulls so im poking around to see who to go back and iso and deathtunnel

[ceejayvinoya]

Hi.
I'm assuming both scum and sk killed blackstar, and vig got roleblocked. I can't see anything else making sense.
I'll be reading.

[OkaPoka]

or vig didnt shoot

[AP]

@CJV: Really?? You know, after my reread and by association and "best guessing" ..etc I had ruled you out of being anti-town despite not particularly liking your posts of D1. You faking total ignorance here still rubs me the wrong way and I can't be too sure you're not the Mafia/SK after all.

@Oka: I have been coming from the PoV Vig always shoots here, since it is an "investigative vig shot" so to speak, but now I can see someone who holstered bc they weren't confident enough and thus were of hitting a TPR.

Basically the odds of RB blocking the Mafia/Vig are the exact same odds of Mafia/Vig having hit the SK. I don't know how to calculate the odds of a Vig not shooting because that's not explicitly a mechanical thing, but rather a reads and personality thing.

Now that everyone has posted in the new day, I would assume that the Cop got a clear on their target or they would've claimed the guilty (that would have eliminated one of the 2 anti-town NK's, so absolutely no point is hinting a guilty rather than explicitly announce it).

This means my lynch pool for today is in Unreal/CJ/N_M (in that order of preference)

[Eragon]

Lol A.P. and I are mindmelding on targets...

I will respond to everything when I’m off mobile, I’m getting on a plane in 15 minutes

[LuckyOtter]

Neither ejj nor seal has posted today yet.

[Sando]

I've seen a lot of people claim this about N_M and I'm yet to see the whole "he's good as town" ever materialise. I've only seen him troll as either alignment and it's just the amount of form of trolling that is NAI. Early votes on MM is town-indicative of him, and believe it or not I'd say

the amount of discussion from him D1 was fairly townie too.

Forgot to ask about this earlier, but wut? You earlier:

N_M strikes me as outside scum-meta

, but I'm a far cry from an expert on that one, and Math is the one I've heard most discussion of NMs play from previously so I'd like more from both of them.

I'm not following.

What aren't you following? I'm saying in one that he doesn't look like his scum-self, and in the other I'm saying he looks like his town-self. He's not very jokey and lurkey as scum, and he also doesn't commit to votes that early as scum. It's not a lot to go off, but that's N_M.

[UnrealSeal]

4. UnrealSeal-

>114 blatant wolfy misrep saying otter posted directly after 101, otter posted at 105

Otter posted at 105, 4 posts after 101 and approximately 3 hours afterwards.

ignoring the semantics part of this, what is the scum motivation for doing this?

I'd also like you to elaborate on your thought process a little more in this post, as the only thing you've really gone into detail on is my Twilight post.

I have no real scum-reads at the moment (I previously had one on Lucky, but his vote was on MM and I don't think he was bussing in this instance.) and while I do have some theories, most of them are stretches at the moment.

I'll park on VOTE: OkaPoka for now

[OkaPoka]

@CJV: Really?? You know, after my reread and by association and "best guessing" ..etc I had ruled you out of being anti-town despite not particularly liking your posts of D1. You faking total ignorance here still rubs me the wrong way and I can't be too sure you're not the Mafia/SK after all.

@Oka: I have been coming from the PoV Vig always shoots here, since it is an "investigative vig shot" so to speak, but now I can see someone who holstered bc they weren't confident enough and thus were of hitting a TPR.

Basically the odds of RB blocking the Mafia/Vig are the exact same odds of Mafia/Vig having hit the SK. I don't know how to calculate the odds of a Vig not shooting because that's not explicitly a mechanical thing, but rather a reads and personality thing.

Now that everyone has posted in the new day, I would assume that the Cop got a clear on their target or they would've claimed the guilty (that would have eliminated one of the 2 anti-town NK's, so absolutely no point is hinting a guilty rather than explicitly announce it).

This means my lynch pool for today is in Unreal/CJ/N_M (in that order of preference)

There is a higher chance of landing town than scum.
So it's investigave at the cost of town.
Unless you are pretty sure of scum

[LuckyOtter]

Sando:
I think I'm just generally misinterpreting you. If by 'outside scum-meta' you mean he's not playing like his scum-self then your posts make much more sense.

Also, if "the amount of discussion from him D1' meant "no discussion whatsoever" and no discussion from NM means he's town, OK. I think it's not a great argument but I get what you're saying now at least.

So now I don't get why NM is voting you, because based on the timing I thought it had something to do with a discrepancy there.

[LuckyOtter]

4. UnrealSeal-

>114 blatant wolfy misrep saying otter posted directly after 101, otter posted at 105

Otter posted at 105, 4 posts after 101 and approximately 3 hours afterwards.

ignoring the semantics part of this, what is the scum motivation for doing this?

I'd also like you to elaborate on your thought process a little more in this post, as the only thing you've really gone into detail on is my Twilight post.

I have no real scum-reads at the moment (I previously had one on Lucky, but his vote was on MM and I don't think he was bussing in this instance.) and while I do have some theories, most of them are stretches at the moment.

I'll park on VOTE: OkaPoka for now

I mean, you know you're going to get asked about this vote, right?

[UnrealSeal]

Yes.

[OkaPoka]

Ok explain

[ceejayvinoya]

@CJV: Really?? You know, after my reread and by association and "best guessing" ..etc I had ruled you out of being anti-town despite not particularly liking your posts of D1. You faking total ignorance here still rubs me the wrong way and I can't be too sure you're not the Mafia/SK after all.

I honestly don't know what's going on here. If I'm being ignorant then that means I am ignorant. It looks to me like you already had an idea of what happened. Why not just tell me what I'm missing?

[Sando]

@CJV: Really?? You know, after my reread and by association and "best guessing" ..etc I had ruled you out of being anti-town despite not particularly liking your posts of D1. You faking total ignorance here still rubs me the wrong way and I can't be too sure you're not the Mafia/SK after all.

I honestly don't know what's going on here. If I'm being ignorant then that means I am ignorant. It looks to me like you already had an idea of what happened. Why not just tell me what I'm missing?

AP can answer for himself, but the obvious thing to me here is that you're ignoring the very real chance that Vig/Mafia hit the SK, and the implications of that.

I'm not sure what you ignoring that means for you being Mafia/SK, but it's a fairly big implication for us to unpack that you've ignored.