OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)

[ruru]

ODDLY FORMAL GREETING

EXPRESSION OF SURPRISE THAT A GAME ON MAFIASCUM DOT NET WHICH WAS SCHEDULED TO START STARTED

EXCUSE FOR MISSING RVS

RVS VOTE

VOTE: AP

[ruru]

(RETURN TO LURKING)

[ruru]

I'd answer you but I'm committed to lurking

[ruru]

VOTE: ruru

nvm this is def better

Oh I'm being SERIOUS VOTED

Time to do something

[ruru]

UNSUBTLE IMPLICATION OF UNLYNCHABILITY AND ROLE POWERFULNESS

[ruru]

P

A

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A

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D

G

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O

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B

T

W

[ruru]

Last night I dreamt of San Pedro
It all seems like yesterday, not far away

[ruru]

Happiness is a warm gun
Bang bang, shoot shoot

[ruru]

VOTE: OkaPoka

[ruru]

That's exactly what an alt would say

[ruru]

barring a marathon game last week

Technically suiciding and venging town is my scum meta now

[ruru]

Hmm

Town: ofrhz, skitter, brass, maybe AP

Lacks town: invis
Feels forced: oka
Possible svs: enigma/bujaber

Of those four I actually scumread bujaber least

[ruru]

VOTE: Enigma

[ruru]

yes! it's a nice wagon, i like it, it feels like home

Tropical the island breeze
All of nature wild and free
This is where I long to be

[ruru]

Gut says one of the three who jumped on are scum.

This is objectively most probable if you're town though

Do you specifically think it's more likely than random?

I don't think there is (for myself, at least) any point in trying to rationalise ruru for now. I think I'll just ignore her and her claim until later in the game where it will all unravel if she's scum.

Also I was just waiting to see if ofrhz would feel like explaining himself later. He asked a few qs, I responded but he didn't say end up reasoning in thread but rather just jumped on the wagon. Though I imagine it was due to my attention on ruru, and given the controversy and difference of opinions there - leaning the suspicion towards sky.

If I'm unreadable to you then why is sky PoE scum and not me? Are you actually scumreading her?

[ruru]

So if more people jump on my wagon today or if something otherwise happens to me and I flip or whatever, then the VCA for the wagon will definitely be interesting and worth pursuing.

This doesn't really answer the question

Do you think a redflip in {sky, ofrhz, ruru} makes the others less likely to be scum?

Also if you know you're town then shouldn't reading the votes be equally interesting to you now?

Less PoE sky, and more scum reading:

Can you explain why your previous post sounded like a PoE scumread?

1. She townreads you immediately after your introduction post
2. Doesn't show curiosity when voting me, despite being curious when posting earlier votes
3. Ignores and is not surprised by your whole distracting PGO debacle

Why are these scum-indicative?

[ruru]

1. Do you think 2 of 3 scum are on my 5 person wagon. I think less likely but not impossible.

Right but the whole reason I'm questioning you about this is that you could say that based purely on probability

"2 players are unlikely to be scum in a random sample of 3" is a much different statement than "if one flips scum, the others are less likely than (2/whatever) to be scum"

The latter involves some sort of correlation or associative read

I'm asking if knowing one of our alignments would affect your read on the others

3. Check my previous posts if it wasn't subtle enough before I wrote it out

Okay I just reread your iso

The first couple times I read 176 I don't think I understood it

I read sky's post as saying that

she's

blatantly sheeping her townreads onto you

I'm now reading your post as you thinking sky was accusing you of sheeping onto a wagon (bujaber), and you thinking it was hypocritical of her?

4. Because it can suggest not being in the non-informed majority ...

Do you think town specifically wouldn't townread my entrance?

Do you think town specifically wouldn't vote a scumread without asking a question?

What are your thoughts on PL on a PGO claim before LYLO?

I'm too obvtown to pl

[ruru]

Ugh

- I feel like lylo calculations are pretty meaningless with up to 2 gun roles + 2 protective roles but if you actually believe it's going to happen like that then we should be no lynching today
- If you actually think I'm getting pled, talking about when specifically you're pling me is anti-town (I'm not getting pled btw because the players in this game who know how to read me already know I'm town)
- ofrhz and I might be a clique but like we don't collude if that's what's being asked. I tried to lynch her d1 both times we played together previously. I have pretty high confidence in her reads and she has the ability to read me off of like 3 posts (100% so far)
- If I wanted to 1 for 1 as scum I would pick redirector and fakeclaim a guilty (because this also denies town's most powerful role), not pick vig/vengeful and fakeclaim pgo
- I'm most likely the least valuable scum player in any group of 3 scums and if we decided picking or fakeclaiming pgo was a good idea it would be on the carry scum so they don't get copped, not on me
- For evidence of the above, I sacrificed myself to get

Myloninja13

to lylo in my most recent scum game. Neither of us have ever won a game as scum.

Also

- The only reason for me to pick pgo in this game is that I'm confident enough in my towniness that scum will be forced to shoot me before lylo
- The only reason for me to claim d1 is that I'm town and I don't want TPRs to get shot
- There's actually no way I pull any of this off as scum and no reason to take that risk anyway
- I'm not super interested in talking about my picking strategy or why I think it's +ev further because my ability is activated and playing my role still involves outguessing scum

[ruru]

Does The Clique Meta Affect Games?

[ruru]

Thought experiment:

Assume lynching me or wking me is 100% NAI

Who's scum and why?

@everyone

[ruru]

AP, are your reads still confidential?

[ruru]

[ruru]

Actually @brass do you have any meta where you "pressure vote" lurkers like that?

[ruru]

He was pretty tryhard/aggressive scum in 1874 otherwise I'd be thinking the same

[ruru]

What about the hilarious 2014 game where Not_Mafia got quicklynched d1

[ruru]

@drixx, when you are IC you should be a bit more active day 1 to sort of set the model of how to play. I get how you were pr and not trying to draw to much towards you, but in a teaching role, being active and talking more helps the newer players to be more active.

Some things never change I see

[ruru]

Why's invis a better lynch than enigma

[ruru]

I don't think that's AI for invis and like my actual reason for putting invis in my lynchpool is at least 50% tone lol

[ruru]

Invisibility is scum.

Do you usually express this much certainty as town?

[ruru]

Hmm

{ofrhz, skitter, ceejay}
{BuJaber, Ausuka, Skygazer}
{Sando, AP, vulcan}
{Oka, Invis}
{Enigma, brassherald}

noting for posterity that skygazer and AP are the slots I'm most likely to have positive bias on

[ruru]

@ruru: Why is brass scum? I kinda have a slight TR on him. Help?

I feel like he had some good posts early but he's been like acting busy recently and I actually don't value the early posts as much because scum are more likely to try hardest to look town on first impression

I think the Ausuka vote was bad (like regardless of her alignment even), "pressure vote" on invis which turned into a certain scumread after invis's towniest posts is really questionable (like did he even read any of invis's town meta?)

Something like that

[ruru]

Oh yeah and I'm also skeptical of people already trying to counterwagon enigma when I'm like still questioning him and he's close to getting prodded

[ruru]

I feel like the "semi-RVS" vote is kind of a scumtell

and like simultaneously defending it as rational but also writing it off as not scum-indicative because it was RVS

[ruru]

If L1 is a possibility maybe we should talk about claims since they're weird in this setup

I'm currently thinking:
- Don't cc fakeclaims in general, I think there are a lot of cases where we decide to lynch a claim regardless of whether it's true or not
- When claiming vt, only say what you tried to pick if it actually benefits town

Thoughts?

[ruru]

Not if it outs the cop or something, no

[ruru]

*shrug*

I'm speaking in general

[ruru]

Also speaking of roles and things it's time for an annoying post that probably should have been made in my last game

1. Please read this if you haven't

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... (by-Yates)

2. We're doing it starting tomorrow

And I'm policy lynching you if you don't, even if you're an international man of mystery

3. We're doing it right

DO NOT TRY TO LYNCH YOUR HYPO-INNO

DO NOT TRY TO LYNCH YOUR HYPO-INNO

DO NOT TRY TO LYNCH YOUR HYPO-INNO

DO NOT TRY TO LYNCH YOUR HYPO-INNO

DO NOT TRY TO LYNCH YOUR HYPO-INNO

DO NOT TRY TO LYNCH YOUR HYPO-INNO

DO NOT TRY TO LYNCH YOUR HYPO-INNO

DO NOT TRY TO LYNCH YOUR HYPO-INNO

4. Claim roleblocked if you were roleblocked or suspect you were roleblocked (maybe)?

I'm not really sure on this but I think there are enough roles that have an observable result (and enough information on who's likely vanilla) that I suspect it's better to claim roleblocked than to have potentially fake clears. Naturally everyone has to do this otherwise scum could clear someone as not-cop by roleblocking them.

Ok, the end, sorry

[ruru]

[ruru]

I think like 90% of the time it can wait until massclaim and maybe 10% of the time actually do it? If you hypo-inno scum you're not getting shot anyway, and in my experience so far people are on the opposite side of bad decisions

About roleblocks, hmm

Doc/jk would sometimes know

And like I think watcher getting shot for example is a good thing, VT who suspect scum may have targetted them can also sometimes claim roleblocked to mess with scum, etc.

I'm honestly not sure how to weigh that against the risk of fake innos

[ruru]

VT who suspect scum may have targetted them can also sometimes claim roleblocked to mess with scum, etc.

Also if the cop's target got shot, cop can claim roleblocked (or if you hate fakeclaims for the sake of fakeclaims we could hypoclaim of the form "If I'm cop, I either investigated the dead player or I was roleblocked last night" which is basically the same thing)

Like there's a difference between hypoclaiming roleblocked and claiming you were roleblocked on X night when you're at L-1

[ruru]

@ruru - in the link you posted they talked about "hypo-cop'ing" but not "hypo-inno". Could you explain what it means?

So hypo-copping would be the act of providing a hypothetical innocent peek (the hypo-inno)

If you try to lynch the person you have a hypo-inno on, start interrogating them, or otherwise act like you're not a cop with an innocent, then scum know you're not cop

[ruru]

enigma is town because how the wagon formed is scummy as hell

What makes you think it's not svs?

[ruru]

Ruru asked me to consider a possibility so I did?

It's more like I was trying to understand your thought process

Like "the wagon happened quickly with some lolvotes" -> "scum are on the wagon and it's on town" seems like a leap to me and possibly agenda-driven

[ruru]

...

[ruru]

@tw vulcan is due for prod

Bujaber/sando feels kinda tvt

@skitter/ceejay/anyone else who's played with him do you have a good read on sando yet?

{ofrhz, skitter, ceejay}
{BuJaber, Ausuka, Skygazer, Sando}
{AP, vulcan}
{Oka, brass-slot}
{Enigma, Invis}

[ruru]

The weird thing about it is that I think invis is the kind of player who would know better than to write that post as scum

but like it's still scummy anyway

[ruru]

@ruru.@Oka: Can we like.. shut this conversation about claims off?

If I was scum I would have loved you both for the amount of ideas you're giving me.

P.S. I am now leaning town on Oka, I'm more inclined to believe it's his argumentative playstyle that's annoying me, but I can certainly see the town motive behind his play, and I think it bad for scum!him to do this.

UNVOTE:

pinging me

What do you think about 184-186 btw?

[ruru]

also I think AP writes 377 as either alignment

[ruru]

This really looks like tvt

low-key surprised that i'm the person he decided to sheep; i don't think he's townreading me that strongly or anything

i was kinda wondering if he was just waiting for someone else to vote so he could sheep them

That's also what I was wondering

I also find it notable that he's hard-townreading me when like he has a history of scumreading me for no reason and it would be pretty risky for him to do that as scum because I also have a history of violently omgusing him

I think it might also be due to some conversations we had in between this game and the last game I played with him though and him better understanding how I think?

So like his townread on me doesn't particularly feel scum-motivated but it's probably slightly scummy in a bayesian sense

Also while I don't really think of pockety posts as inherently scummy and town do it just as much, the thing with sheeping you was spooky because we have no way of knowing what his reads actually were, and so it makes me wonder if other pockety posts from him actually do have scum motivation

That being said I tr some of his other posts and history shows I have zero ability to correctly read AP on early days anyway so lol

[ruru]

This game's a disaster

[ruru]

Mfw there are three "pressure voters", one "semi-RVS voter", and only three scums

[ruru]

vulcan's moonvote is actually kinda towny I guess?

[ruru]

Vulcan you're spending more time defending yourself than gamesolving

This feels a bit forced

[ruru]

are you talking about brass's game? or some other game? iirc he scumread you pretty hard in the beginning of brass's game but i don't remember all the details

721: He randomly scumreads me on d1 (I still have no idea what for lol), claims he's sure about me as opposed to one of the others, I instantly try to make it a 1v1
723: I claim scum with Not_Mafia and vote UglyDuck, he's like "okay lynch ruru and nm and we win", UglyDuck flips red d1, he becomes my top scumread d2

[ruru]

okay vulcan is town

[ruru]

I feel like it is either a decide to lynch me, or don't

Also I've only seen this from scum (sample size: 1), I don't agree either way, and I think it creates cognitive dissonance for no reason

It's worth pursuing other leads and if you're still the consensus scummiest player after that then like you're still getting lynched

[ruru]

@Enigma what's your math background?

[ruru]

What kind of engineering?

[ruru]

I actually find it a bit surprising that a MechE would ever have believed picking the same number as town is scum-indicative

[ruru]

xd

[ruru]

@ruru what are the point of these questions?

also the actual answer is kind of mean

[ruru]

I feel like it's super bizarre to vote based on a paper you don't understand and probably less bizarre to google it after the fact

Also like, remember UglyDuck in pick your poison? I'm not sure how much I believe the daytalk argument after that

[ruru]

@tw I think Ausuka is voting vulcan

[ruru]

to me enigma is no longer really a viable lynch option. there is a complete and utter lack of any sort of counter to the wagon. scum are content with the gamestate as it is.

Scum got bussed with little resistance d1 in the last game I played

I'm not sure if that's a reason to stop scumreading someone

[ruru]

[ruru]

So you think he just googled that paper when he was pressured to defend his vote?

The thing is that I'm kinda seeing those underlying assumptions all the way from the beginning of his iso, like all the way from his first posts - he def was thinking about this along these lines since like his first post imo

I guess with daytalk I kinda imagine what I would do and I would def have discussed my strategy with my partners, but yeah you have a point wrt uglyduck

Also okay maybe that doesn't make sense either

How about these scenarios

1. Enigma googles the paper primarily to try to find out what number

he

should pick, which would, like, make sense
2a. Enigma votes based on incomplete understanding of the paper (I still think the vote is kind of scummy because it's a way to look like you're scumhunting without actually scumhunting, remember my rvs vote in 1859?)

or

2b. Enigma votes because he wants to join the wagon, then makes up the link between his vote and the paper he already read because his vote was receiving negative attention

And regardless of which case it is I don't think the information contained in the paper is more interesting to town than it is to scum, so at best it's nai that he voted based on it and like he's still scummy in general

[ruru]

VOTE: Invisibility

[ruru]

I'm bored and want to lynch a scummy player

[ruru]

AP always looks like scum though

Invis looked like town in my last game with him

[ruru]

viewtopic.php?t=75972&f=52&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

[ruru]

i agree with ausuka actually; this gamestate is kinda too complacent for a wagon on scum imo; the only time i can think of a gamestate with like no resistance on a scumlynch is like brass's game day1, where all three scum were major lurkers.

unless scum is all like in {enigma, vizzy, vulcan, maybe ap} the gamestate kinda supports town!enigma because it seems scum are chill with this wagon and aren't like trying to do anything about it

like if you think enigma is scum what are the other two scum doing right now?

"scum always bus, so let's be offwagon but not look like we're trying to avoid his lynch lolz"

actually I think all the games I've played as town had a pretty low resistance d1 scum lynch

I wasn't even thinking of 721

723 scum got quicklynched d1
728 the first major d1 wagon was TvT, the competing wagons eod were 2 scums and a TvT wagon

also there was no counterwagon to me on the first half of d1 in 1859, the first drixx wagon was after my wagon died

[ruru]

actually I think all the games I've played as town had a pretty low resistance d1 scum lynch

all the games other than 721 I mean

[ruru]

Maybe I see mafia theory differently from most scums

I think I reached L2 in 1859 and you were the L2 vote (but maybe it's bad example because my partner was afk)

I could also see oka as an enigma partner (although I'm kinda townreading oka lately) so it wouldn't have to be all lurkscum

[ruru]

and like I do see that lurker group as extremely likely to contain scum

[ruru]

If enigma can only be scum with lurkers then that makes flipping invis even more interesting I suppose

[ruru]

Players high in the draft are more likely to get sorted by scum so I don't think it's inherently better to lynch there

I feel like the utility of PRs to town vs. scum (favors not lynching draft winners imo) and scum being more likely to be higher in the draft (favors lynching draft winners) are both secondary concerns d1

[ruru]

I meant 1+2a or 1+2b as possibilities

[ruru]

Is this the part where we manage to find votes for invis and then nothing happens and then people get spooked again

although I'm rather surprised at the lack of people voting him so far or calling his posts null because I don't think they're null

[ruru]

AP, I seen this guy around, I dont think he likes lyin all thah much. N he keepin his cards close to his tiddies but I think when he scum he more comfortable when he's tryna push stuff. I hope u get me.

Would this be common knowledge or knowledge cardi might be expected to have (@skitter)?