Mini 2017: Encore Mafia - Now Without Cults [Endgame]

[Myloninja13]

So... what should we do here?

[Awoo]

So who do you guys wanna lynch? I am thinking in like

{pine, momrangal}
power gap where people I think should be lynched more are on top and people i think lynched less on below
{ep]

[mastina]

What do you think about the point that having one scum left makes them much more vulnerable to Tracker?

I think the results of the night speak for themselves as an "I fucking told you so" moment. (Mostly referring to the fact we're on evens, we have no definitive investigative results, and no players who are objectively absolutely cleared, even if some are subjectively soft-cleared and close to hard-cleared.)

Because he thought he'd be less likely to be tracked than his scumbuddy.

Oh really then?

Do tell.

Because Kokichi Oma was one of the most widely scumread players on D1.

Why the fuck would he be

less

likely to be tracked, then?

surely, this MUST be massclaim day.

Absolutely not, no.

Two scum dead, all investigatives (minus Wisdom) alive, scum having no idea who the fourth PR is (and maybe even having shot someone immune to death as a result), massclaiming is absolutely not the play here.

not doing anything til Awoo explains dat vote

Pretty sure he thinks that scum forgot to submit an action, and Mara fits that bill.

There are only two options for the night as far as I'm concerned.
One, the scum used their role instead of the nightkill. In which case, town is likely in for a nasty surprise at some point.
Or two, the scum attempted a kill on a player that could not be nightkilled. In which case, the scum utterly failed to correctly identify the fourth PR.

There's no other option.
I don't believe a moderator would allow for the town to gain an unfair advantage due to the last scum needing to be (but not actually being) replaced in the night.

[mastina]

Oh.
That was meant to have this:
VOTE: implosion.

[implosion]

So who do you guys wanna lynch? I am thinking in like

{pine, momrangal}
power gap where people I think should be lynched more are on top and people i think lynched less on below
{ep]

This looks -vaguely- accurate to me.

I'm uninterested in mutant after his Kokichi interactions yesterday.
I'm uninterested in Awoo because he's been acting town all game.
I'm uninterested in the worst for his track result.
I'm uninterested in BNL, among other reasons, because he was so insistent for so long that we let him verify his shot.

mastina I feel pretty much how I did on day one; I think she's town, but I don't understand her meta well enough to be sure.
Mylo could be scum. Gut says he isn't but gut is an awful reason. And it'd be awesome if he could stop parodying his own refusal to give content.

That leaves the 3 people you listed. Pine and Maragnal were basically MIA yesterday. EP had a couple content posts and is still a bit unlikely to be scum but I need to audit that opinion. Pine remains with literally 0 reason to townread. Maragnal I remember seeing good reasons to townread on d1, those need to be audited as well.

[implosion]

I think the results of the night speak for themselves as an "I fucking told you so" moment. (Mostly referring to the fact we're on evens, we have no definitive investigative results, and no players who are objectively absolutely cleared, even if some are subjectively soft-cleared and close to hard-cleared.)

I don't understand how you can see no one dying at night and call it an "I told you so" moment. Yeah we're on evens... with one scum left and only one townie dead. This is a wonderful position for the town. Please explain.

Oh really then?

Do tell.

Because Kokichi Oma was one of the most widely scumread players on D1.

Why the fuck would he be less likely to be tracked, then?

It's literally a

possible

reason. That's all it is. You wholecloth discounting it is intellectually disingenuous. You can't know how scum were thinking about night actions with that much certainty.

I don't even remember him being "one of the most widely scumread players" either; he had literally 0 votes in the last 11 votecounts of d1. I wouldn't call that especially widely scumread, and certainly not widely scumread to assume with 100% certainty that he'd avoid making the kill as scum.

[implosion]

As for massclaim, here is why today is 100% the day to do it. I'm almost happy to eat a lynch on me if it'd get us to massclaim.

1) This is the biggest reason, and isn't purely mechanical, it's more pragmatic: with all of the setup info on the table for everyone to look at, we can collectively decide whether or not we think all PR claims are truthful based on balance, and narrow the lynchpool. We can avoid mislynches that might have occurred based on unclaimed information. We can work together much more effectively as a team. Maybe someone is cleared (or less likely scum) based on some claim or some result, and someone else had been suspecting them heavily; now that other person can focus energy more productively on other suspects.
2) We can ensure that every single night action is going to use, and avoid situations like two investigatives clearing the same person. We can choreograph night actions completely. Scum near-certainly have no way to interfere with this without sacrificing their nightkill.
3) We can audit everyone's completed games to ensure that claims aren't similar to scum roles they've had; in most cases here, confirmable role = confirmable alignment. We can (and probably should) do this without a massclaim anyway, but with a massclaim it becomes even more powerful.
4) I've said this before, but I'll reiterate, because it's critically important to understand: we are ahead. Really, really ahead. In games, when you are ahead, you want to reduce the potential variance in the game so as to avoid as many unlikely loss situations as possible.

As for counters to the arguments against massclaiming:

Two scum dead,

This is a reason to massclaim, not a reason to not massclaim. We are ahead. See above.

all investigatives (minus Wisdom) alive,

Ditto this; this is also a reason to massclaim, so that we can get all investigative results explicitly out in the open in case an investigative dies before being able to do so. Plus, one of them has explicitly claimed, meaning that scum know a good choice for who to kill anyway, and claiming more of them doesn't have significant disadvantage.

scum having no idea who the fourth PR is

How do you know that they don't know who the fourth PR is? And what's the downside of them knowing, given that they already know plenty of good nightkill choices? Sure, there might be some downside here. But it is heavily, heavily outweighed by all of the positives I've listed.

(and maybe even having shot someone immune to death as a result),

If scum did this, then they know they did this... meaning that we should massclaim, to get that information that scum already has into the hands of the town.

[implosion]

Forgot to mention 5) we can force scum to 100% commit to a claim now, and prevent a possible power play later on. This ties hand-in-hand with the idea of reducing variance.

[Awoo]

Way ahead of you buddy I claimed VT on page one

[Awoo]

(Does anyone else think that if implosion is scum fakeclaiming backup vigilante, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to advocate for a massclaim when it may be revealed there IS no other vigilante besides maybe BNL being the police, and there have never been 2 nightkills? The result of that is he = ded)

[the worst]

I'm a bit nervous about how little of a read on mastina Pine has stated even after I asked him for a couple. )': friend are you scum here?

[mastina]

I think the results of the night speak for themselves as an "I fucking told you so" moment. (Mostly referring to the fact we're on evens, we have no definitive investigative results, and no players who are objectively absolutely cleared, even if some are subjectively soft-cleared and close to hard-cleared.)

I don't understand how you can see no one dying at night and call it an "I told you so" moment.

That's not what I was referring to with the results of the night.

You cut out the important part literally

right fucking below it

.

(Mostly referring to the fact we're on evens, we have no definitive investigative results, and no players who are objectively absolutely cleared, even if some are subjectively soft-cleared and close to hard-cleared.)

One, the scum used their role instead of the nightkill. In which case, town is likely in for a nasty surprise at some point.

One, scum could have a role which using it last night fucks us over later. For instance, a fairly common enough scum role involves a delayed action of some sort. Plenty of roles fit the mold, from poisoner to bookie.

Two, even if not.

the worst does not have a track result. And in fact, his claimed action given Screenplay's role history is something that is,

objectively speaking

, suspicious. (Fuck objectivity, butstill.)
BulletNLynchproof is not conftown.
We don't have any useful information at hand.

No player is hard-cleared objectively. While I have subjectively hard-cleared some players, including the unclaimed PR, we don't have any hard leads as to the final scum from roles alone.

The exact outcome I warned you of yesterday.

So damn fucking straight I go "I told you so".

Because I fucking told you so that this would happen.

You can't know how scum were thinking about night actions with that much certainty.

Not so.
I have a knack for knowing what scum think. Even when all my reads are wrong, it's my one saving grace. I get to predict their actions.
The exact identity of scum players I don't always get.
Their mindset, I do.

Particularly when you know of at least one dead scum and have a solid scumspect.

I don't even remember him being "one of the most widely scumread players" either; he had literally 0 votes in the last 11 votecounts of d1. I wouldn't call that especially widely scumread, and certainly not widely scumread to assume with 100% certainty that he'd avoid making the kill as scum.

The real disingenuous thing here is implying that votes = scumread, and that just because he had none he wasn't.

That's not how it works.

Stated stances = scumreads, and Kokichi Oma was frankly one of THE most widely scumread players on D1.

I'm going for girlfriend time, so can't prove this now, but will do so later.

[implosion]

One, scum could have a role which using it last night fucks us over later. For instance, a fairly common enough scum role involves a delayed action of some sort. Plenty of roles fit the mold, from poisoner to bookie.

Cool. Like I said, let's not leave this to chance, and let's audit all of the scum roles that everyone here has ever played.
We can do it cyclically, with each person auditing the closest person below them on the player list that is still alive. We can get a comprehensive list of all such possible roles and who can have them, and we don't have to worry about it anymore, or know exactly what we do have to worry about.

the worst does not have a track result. And in fact, his claimed action given Screenplay's role history is something that is, objectively speaking, suspicious. (Fuck objectivity, butstill.)
BulletNLynchproof is not conftown.
We don't have any useful information at hand.

To clarify, it's suspicious because he's been a scum 1-shot tracker? The track yesterday no longer role-confirms him if he's scum (if he's scum, he could be any scum role srceen has had) since Kokichi flipped scum.
BNL is not conftown, yes.
I drastically disagree that we don't have any useful information at hand, though... saying "these people aren't conftown" doesn't mean the information we have isn't useful.

And isn't not having enough useful information on hand all the more reason to massclaim, to get as much useful information as possible? Or do you mean that there's no useful unclaimed information? Because unclaimed information is, well, unclaimed.

No player is hard-cleared objectively. While I have subjectively hard-cleared some players, including the unclaimed PR, we don't have any hard leads as to the final scum from roles alone.

I'm not saying we should use roles alone. But they sure are helpful.

You're really giving an incredibly pessimistic view of the gamestate here.

I have a knack for knowing what scum think. Even when all my reads are wrong, it's my one saving grace. I get to predict their actions.

Well sue me if I don't trust you on this with perfect certainty...

The real disingenuous thing here is implying that votes = scumread, and that just because he had none he wasn't.

That's not how it works.

Stated stances = scumreads, and Kokichi Oma was frankly one of THE most widely scumread players on D1.

I'm going for girlfriend time, so can't prove this now, but will do so later.

Feel free to, but it isn't really relevant to my opinions of anything; even if Kokichi was widely scumread, or even

one of the most

widely scumread, or even *the most* widely scumread, that doesn't automatically mean that scum would have avoided making him make the kill if they had a choice (that is, if the other scum has no action).

That sentence is kind of a mess eugh.

[mutantdevle]

For the record, I'll claim when I feel like it. Not when I'm told to.

[mutantdevle]

Though there is a good chance I won't claim at all this game.

[Myloninja13]

I'm fine either way when it comes to mass claiming here. I feel like we've got this regardless

[KittyMo]

Vote Count 3.01

[1] implosion ~ mastina
[1] Ms Marangal ~ Awoo

[8] Not Voting ~ BulletNLynchproof, Errantparabola, implosion, mutantdevle, Ms Marangal, Myloninja13, Pine, the worst

With

10

alive, it's

6

to lynch!

Deadline is at (expired on 2018-07-26 16:00:00).

[Pine]

Okay, I'm trying to get back into this.

Afaict, we've got one scum remaining. No evidence of multiple killers, so standard 10:3 distribution. 10 remaining, 9:1. Assuming successful lynches and NKs, we can afford three mislynches before MYLO on D6, or a NL to LYLO on D7. We can afford to be modestly sloppy.

Spoiler: Math

D3 9:1 ML
N3 8:1 NK
D4 7:1 ML
N4 6:1 NK
D5 5:1 ML
N5 4:1 NK
D6 3:1 NL
N6 3:1 NK
D7 2:1 LYLO

[Pine]

One, that you're willing to believe someone with a 2011 join date hasn't ever drawn VT without a shred of skepticism. Makes it seem like you aren't applying critical thought to the things you're reading here.
Two, tone. The exasperation reads forced. Again, if you're town I'd expect you to at least have the thought "maybe Pine has a decent reason to say this."
Three, it sort of presumes that Pine is town in a weird way that again doesn't really make me think you're trying to read his alignment genuinely.

That

is why I did it.

VOTE: Mutantdevle

This still makes me want to vote Mutant

[BNL]

Okay so my reads have been godawful this game

Pine what was this about?

[Pine]

Eh I dunno. Mostly about losing track of this game and being utterly ineffective at prosecuting any of my reads. After I wrote that I remembered "Oh yeah, I was on Kokichi at one point," even if I did then deviate off towards Implosion.

[Pine]

Eh. Mutant's position and consistency on the Kokichi wagon makes me want to give him a pass after all.

I feel like analysis of the Kokichi wagon is the key here. Trying to figure out if his buddy stayed off the wagon or was late on it. Everyone early onto Kokichi who stayed on it is probably clear-ish.

Honestly that logic leads to BNL being super shady. Very early on Kokichi, then backed off of him and shopped around to Myloninja before jumping on the Implosion CW. Need to ISO him to assess reasoning. This last post trying to turn an offhand comment into suspicion is shady af too.

[BNL]

Actually there was a guilty on Kokichi, but half of us didn’t want to lynch him because I had what was essentially a delayed vig on Kokichi. Eventually we got round to lynching him because mutant and implosion made good points on why we should lynch scum immediately rather than letting one live even for just one night.

[Pine]

Spoiler:

Do mods no longer PM people when the game starts? I had to iso to see if this game started cause i got my role PM few days ago

Also this is probably town as they have a long wait before getting their role PM and the game actually starting. Whereas scum get pregame chat. It could be faked by scum but I'm not feeling it.

Then again,
UNVOTE: implosion
VOTE: Kokichi Oma
I liked your responses. I feel like Kokichi is falling under my radar.

It's more like I don't have a townread on you despite you having the largest post count (other than myself).

Ok. So the point of voting me over trying to engage with me is?

I could do either. Both ways are acceptable ways of trying to get a better read on you. I chose to vote you because I felt like it.

I could vote BNL

I think you clearly scumread me. Why aren't you voting me already?

@Wisdom same question

Town {Errantparabola, implosion, mutantdevle}
Nulltown {Kokichi Oma, Myloninja13}
Null {Espeonage, Pine, Wisdom, Ms Marangal, the worst}
Nullscum {Awoo}
Not including mastina on this list because I think lynching her today is not a good idea.

Too many unreadable people for my liking. Come on, lurkers!

UNVOTE: Kokichi Oma
VOTE: Awoo

Why intent to hammer but after he's off L-1 you didn't vote him?

Cause I thought the worst would revote then I fell asleep

I gladly would for asking questions that have obvious answers

Tell me how the answer to that question was obvious?

UNVOTE: Myloninja
VOTE: Kokichi Oma
That intent to hammer was super awkward. Also he has been throwing shade everywhere without giving any townreads.

If it comes down to it, I think I'm more inclined to vote Awoo than Espeonage. I'm reading them as leaning scum from their posts, but the quickwagon on Esp worries me. If someone can talk me out of quickwagon arguments I can vote there too. However, I believe 4 days is still sufficient time to build a wagon.

Actually sure
UNVOTE: Kokichi Oma
VOTE: Awoo

I think Awoo is just trolling you guys now. I think it's town and I was wrong earlier. :/

You are going to have to do some explaining here because I don’t see what you mean by trolling.

I'm too tired to make in depth thoughts right now, but I'll leave this here:

I liked Awoo's 602 which shows willingness to cooperate with town, and I want to see Awoo's updated reads to make a conclusion of him.

I am pretty terrified of flashwagoning at this stage of the game. If we are creating extra wagons I'd prefer Kokichi Oma, but I also support a Wisdom wagon as I do not townread him.

I still want to lynch Awoo.

But at this point I'm really tempted to flashwagon someone like Kokichi or Mylo.

It's like because the game is so near deadline but the game is stalled it could be an indication that all major wagons are on town.
My preferred is Kokichi, or Mylo for him responding to his name but not actually doing anything.

^Thats L-1

I like this lynch but please don't hammer without intent because I can't change my target after the lynch

Good job Kokichi

I'm not scumreading implosion at all

VOTE: Kokichi Oma

All his talking about hammering Espeonage feels like a grab for towncred, considering how little he has talked about Esp.

Kokichi please claim

UNVOTE: Kokichi

Ok so I thought about this but I believe there is no disadvantage by saying this:

I am targeting Kokichi. Don't lynch him today, then I will kill him tonight and,

-If he's scum, good
-If he's town, he can kill someone else

Can you PM and ask? I don't think a vig shot works with my role just lynching.

What do you mean just lynching?

VOTE: Kokichi

Awoo, get a hobby that isn't located halfway up my ass.

I have already said that I am going to vig Kokichi tonight and I cannot change my shot so please unvote.

Pine is town because I've realised what has been going on.

With Kokichi and Pine out, you and Mylo are my strongest scumreads.

Scumread on implosion is based on Wisdom death and EOD wagons.

we should probably just like lynch the scum

But I can’t shoot anyone other than Kokichi.

Hmmmmm, I'm not sure if I super buy the convenience of that, but you'd have a hard time explaining a failed vig of Kokichi, so I don't think you'd make the claim as scum.

Okay, BNL gets a pass.

Spoilered by request -Mod

[Pine]

Ah fuck me. Sorry, I was half way through collecting quotes to spoiler into my analysis on BNL/Kokichi, and I thought they had cleared.

@Mod: Please delete or spoiler all those quotes, they weren't intentional