Mini 2017: Encore Mafia - Now Without Cults [Endgame]
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Myloninja13 Mafia Scum
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Awoo Mafia Scum
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mastina She/HerFalse ProphetShe/Her
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I think the results of the night speak for themselves as an "I fucking told you so" moment. (Mostly referring to the fact we're on evens, we have no definitive investigative results, and no players who are objectively absolutely cleared, even if some are subjectively soft-cleared and close to hard-cleared.)In post 1097, BNL wrote:What do you think about the point that having one scum left makes them much more vulnerable to Tracker?
Oh really then?In post 1104, implosion wrote:Because he thought he'd be less likely to be tracked than his scumbuddy.
Do tell.
Because Kokichi Oma was one of the most widely scumread players on D1.
Why the fuck would he belesslikely to be tracked, then?
Absolutely not, no.In post 1125, implosion wrote:surely, this MUST be massclaim day.
Two scum dead, all investigatives (minus Wisdom) alive, scum having no idea who the fourth PR is (and maybe even having shot someone immune to death as a result), massclaiming is absolutely not the play here.
There are only two options for the night as far as I'm concerned.In post 1142, BNL wrote:
Pretty sure he thinks that scum forgot to submit an action, and Mara fits that bill.In post 1138, the worst wrote:not doing anything til Awoo explains dat vote
One, the scum used their role instead of the nightkill. In which case, town is likely in for a nasty surprise at some point.
Or two, the scum attempted a kill on a player that could not be nightkilled. In which case, the scum utterly failed to correctly identify the fourth PR.
There's no other option.
I don't believe a moderator would allow for the town to gain an unfair advantage due to the last scum needing to be (but not actually being) replaced in the night.-
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mastina She/HerFalse ProphetShe/Her
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Oh.
That was meant to have this:
VOTE: implosion.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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This looks -vaguely- accurate to me.In post 1151, Awoo wrote:So who do you guys wanna lynch? I am thinking in like
{pine, momrangal}
power gap where people I think should be lynched more are on top and people i think lynched less on below
{ep]
I'm uninterested in mutant after his Kokichi interactions yesterday.
I'm uninterested in Awoo because he's been acting town all game.
I'm uninterested in the worst for his track result.
I'm uninterested in BNL, among other reasons, because he was so insistent for so long that we let him verify his shot.
mastina I feel pretty much how I did on day one; I think she's town, but I don't understand her meta well enough to be sure.
Mylo could be scum. Gut says he isn't but gut is an awful reason. And it'd be awesome if he could stop parodying his own refusal to give content.
That leaves the 3 people you listed. Pine and Maragnal were basically MIA yesterday. EP had a couple content posts and is still a bit unlikely to be scum but I need to audit that opinion. Pine remains with literally 0 reason to townread. Maragnal I remember seeing good reasons to townread on d1, those need to be audited as well.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I don't understand how you can see no one dying at night and call it an "I told you so" moment. Yeah we're on evens... with one scum left and only one townie dead. This is a wonderful position for the town. Please explain.mastina wrote:I think the results of the night speak for themselves as an "I fucking told you so" moment. (Mostly referring to the fact we're on evens, we have no definitive investigative results, and no players who are objectively absolutely cleared, even if some are subjectively soft-cleared and close to hard-cleared.)
It's literally amastina wrote:Oh really then?
Do tell.
Because Kokichi Oma was one of the most widely scumread players on D1.
Why the fuck would he be less likely to be tracked, then?possiblereason. That's all it is. You wholecloth discounting it is intellectually disingenuous. You can't know how scum were thinking about night actions with that much certainty.
I don't even remember him being "one of the most widely scumread players" either; he had literally 0 votes in the last 11 votecounts of d1. I wouldn't call that especially widely scumread, and certainly not widely scumread to assume with 100% certainty that he'd avoid making the kill as scum.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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As for massclaim, here is why today is 100% the day to do it. I'm almost happy to eat a lynch on me if it'd get us to massclaim.
1) This is the biggest reason, and isn't purely mechanical, it's more pragmatic: with all of the setup info on the table for everyone to look at, we can collectively decide whether or not we think all PR claims are truthful based on balance, and narrow the lynchpool. We can avoid mislynches that might have occurred based on unclaimed information. We can work together much more effectively as a team. Maybe someone is cleared (or less likely scum) based on some claim or some result, and someone else had been suspecting them heavily; now that other person can focus energy more productively on other suspects.
2) We can ensure that every single night action is going to use, and avoid situations like two investigatives clearing the same person. We can choreograph night actions completely. Scum near-certainly have no way to interfere with this without sacrificing their nightkill.
3) We can audit everyone's completed games to ensure that claims aren't similar to scum roles they've had; in most cases here, confirmable role = confirmable alignment. We can (and probably should) do this without a massclaim anyway, but with a massclaim it becomes even more powerful.
4) I've said this before, but I'll reiterate, because it's critically important to understand: we are ahead. Really, really ahead. In games, when you are ahead, you want to reduce the potential variance in the game so as to avoid as many unlikely loss situations as possible.
As for counters to the arguments against massclaiming:
This is a reason to massclaim, not a reason to not massclaim. We are ahead. See above.mastina wrote:Two scum dead,
Ditto this; this is also a reason to massclaim, so that we can get all investigative results explicitly out in the open in case an investigative dies before being able to do so. Plus, one of them has explicitly claimed, meaning that scum know a good choice for who to kill anyway, and claiming more of them doesn't have significant disadvantage.all investigatives (minus Wisdom) alive,
How do you know that they don't know who the fourth PR is? And what's the downside of them knowing, given that they already know plenty of good nightkill choices? Sure, there might be some downside here. But it is heavily, heavily outweighed by all of the positives I've listed.scum having no idea who the fourth PR is
If scum did this, then they know they did this... meaning that we should massclaim, to get that information that scum already has into the hands of the town.(and maybe even having shot someone immune to death as a result),-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Awoo Mafia Scum
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Awoo Mafia Scum
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(Does anyone else think that if implosion is scum fakeclaiming backup vigilante, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to advocate for a massclaim when it may be revealed there IS no other vigilante besides maybe BNL being the police, and there have never been 2 nightkills? The result of that is he = ded)-
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the worst Snuggly Duckling
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I'm a bit nervous about how little of a read on mastina Pine has stated even after I asked him for a couple. )': friend are you scum here?-
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mastina She/HerFalse ProphetShe/Her
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That's not what I was referring to with the results of the night.In post 1155, implosion wrote:
I don't understand how you can see no one dying at night and call it an "I told you so" moment.mastina wrote:I think the results of the night speak for themselves as an "I fucking told you so" moment. (Mostly referring to the fact we're on evens, we have no definitive investigative results, and no players who are objectively absolutely cleared, even if some are subjectively soft-cleared and close to hard-cleared.)
You cut out the important part literallyright fucking below it.
One, scum could have a role which using it last night fucks us over later. For instance, a fairly common enough scum role involves a delayed action of some sort. Plenty of roles fit the mold, from poisoner to bookie.In post 1152, mastina wrote:(Mostly referring to the fact we're on evens, we have no definitive investigative results, and no players who are objectively absolutely cleared, even if some are subjectively soft-cleared and close to hard-cleared.)
One, the scum used their role instead of the nightkill. In which case, town is likely in for a nasty surprise at some point.
Two, even if not.
the worst does not have a track result. And in fact, his claimed action given Screenplay's role history is something that is,objectively speaking, suspicious. (Fuck objectivity, butstill.)
BulletNLynchproof is not conftown.
We don't have any useful information at hand.
No player is hard-cleared objectively. While I have subjectively hard-cleared some players, including the unclaimed PR, we don't have any hard leads as to the final scum from roles alone.
The exact outcome I warned you of yesterday.
So damn fucking straight I go "I told you so".
Because I fucking told you so that this would happen.
Not so.In post 1155, implosion wrote:You can't know how scum were thinking about night actions with that much certainty.
I have a knack for knowing what scum think. Even when all my reads are wrong, it's my one saving grace. I get to predict their actions.
The exact identity of scum players I don't always get.
Their mindset, I do.
Particularly when you know of at least one dead scum and have a solid scumspect.
The real disingenuous thing here is implying that votes = scumread, and that just because he had none he wasn't.In post 1155, implosion wrote:I don't even remember him being "one of the most widely scumread players" either; he had literally 0 votes in the last 11 votecounts of d1. I wouldn't call that especially widely scumread, and certainly not widely scumread to assume with 100% certainty that he'd avoid making the kill as scum.
That's not how it works.
Stated stances = scumreads, and Kokichi Oma was frankly one of THE most widely scumread players on D1.
I'm going for girlfriend time, so can't prove this now, but will do so later.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Cool. Like I said, let's not leave this to chance, and let's audit all of the scum roles that everyone here has ever played.mastina wrote:One, scum could have a role which using it last night fucks us over later. For instance, a fairly common enough scum role involves a delayed action of some sort. Plenty of roles fit the mold, from poisoner to bookie.
We can do it cyclically, with each person auditing the closest person below them on the player list that is still alive. We can get a comprehensive list of all such possible roles and who can have them, and we don't have to worry about it anymore, or know exactly what we do have to worry about.
To clarify, it's suspicious because he's been a scum 1-shot tracker? The track yesterday no longer role-confirms him if he's scum (if he's scum, he could be any scum role srceen has had) since Kokichi flipped scum.mastina wrote:the worst does not have a track result. And in fact, his claimed action given Screenplay's role history is something that is, objectively speaking, suspicious. (Fuck objectivity, butstill.)
BulletNLynchproof is not conftown.
We don't have any useful information at hand.
BNL is not conftown, yes.
I drastically disagree that we don't have any useful information at hand, though... saying "these people aren't conftown" doesn't mean the information we have isn't useful.
And isn't not having enough useful information on hand all the more reason to massclaim, to get as much useful information as possible? Or do you mean that there's no useful unclaimed information? Because unclaimed information is, well, unclaimed.
I'm not saying we should use roles alone. But they sure are helpful.No player is hard-cleared objectively. While I have subjectively hard-cleared some players, including the unclaimed PR, we don't have any hard leads as to the final scum from roles alone.
You're really giving an incredibly pessimistic view of the gamestate here.
Well sue me if I don't trust you on this with perfect certainty...I have a knack for knowing what scum think. Even when all my reads are wrong, it's my one saving grace. I get to predict their actions.
Feel free to, but it isn't really relevant to my opinions of anything; even if Kokichi was widely scumread, or evenThe real disingenuous thing here is implying that votes = scumread, and that just because he had none he wasn't.
That's not how it works.
Stated stances = scumreads, and Kokichi Oma was frankly one of THE most widely scumread players on D1.
I'm going for girlfriend time, so can't prove this now, but will do so later.one of the mostwidely scumread, or even *the most* widely scumread, that doesn't automatically mean that scum would have avoided making him make the kill if they had a choice (that is, if the other scum has no action).
That sentence is kind of a mess eugh.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Myloninja13 Mafia Scum
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KittyMo Too Sparkly
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Last edited by KittyMo on Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.Alt of Ariel | MafiaScum wiki volunteer contributor & sysop | Identity (Mish Mash) is back | Speakeasy Secret Santa
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Pine In Your Head
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Okay, I'm trying to get back into this.
Afaict, we've got one scum remaining. No evidence of multiple killers, so standard 10:3 distribution. 10 remaining, 9:1. Assuming successful lynches and NKs, we can afford three mislynches before MYLO on D6, or a NL to LYLO on D7. We can afford to be modestly sloppy.
Spoiler: Math"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare-
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Pine In Your Head
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This still makes me want to vote MutantIn post 149, Pine wrote:In post 144, implosion wrote:One, that you're willing to believe someone with a 2011 join date hasn't ever drawn VT without a shred of skepticism. Makes it seem like you aren't applying critical thought to the things you're reading here.
Two, tone. The exasperation reads forced. Again, if you're town I'd expect you to at least have the thought "maybe Pine has a decent reason to say this."
Three, it sort of presumes that Pine is town in a weird way that again doesn't really make me think you're trying to read his alignment genuinely.Thatis why I did it.
VOTE: Mutantdevle"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare-
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BNL Micro Madness
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Pine what was this about?In post 1135, Pine wrote:Okay so my reads have been godawful this game-
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Pine In Your Head
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Eh I dunno. Mostly about losing track of this game and being utterly ineffective at prosecuting any of my reads. After I wrote that I remembered "Oh yeah, I was on Kokichi at one point," even if I did then deviate off towards Implosion."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare-
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Pine In Your Head
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Eh. Mutant's position and consistency on the Kokichi wagon makes me want to give him a pass after all.
I feel like analysis of the Kokichi wagon is the key here. Trying to figure out if his buddy stayed off the wagon or was late on it. Everyone early onto Kokichi who stayed on it is probably clear-ish.
Honestly that logic leads to BNL being super shady. Very early on Kokichi, then backed off of him and shopped around to Myloninja before jumping on the Implosion CW. Need to ISO him to assess reasoning. This last post trying to turn an offhand comment into suspicion is shady af too."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare-
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BNL Micro Madness
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Actually there was a guilty on Kokichi, but half of us didn’t want to lynch him because I had what was essentially a delayed vig on Kokichi. Eventually we got round to lynching him because mutant and implosion made good points on why we should lynch scum immediately rather than letting one live even for just one night.-
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Pine In Your Head
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Spoiler:
Hmmmmm, I'm not sure if I super buy the convenience of that, but you'd have a hard time explaining a failed vig of Kokichi, so I don't think you'd make the claim as scum.
Okay, BNL gets a pass.
Spoilered by request -ModLast edited by KittyMo on Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:28 am, edited 2 times in total."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare-
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Pine In Your Head
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Ah fuck me. Sorry, I was half way through collecting quotes to spoiler into my analysis on BNL/Kokichi, and I thought they had cleared.
@Mod: Please delete or spoiler all those quotes, they weren't intentional"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare
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