Newbie 1882 - Game Over

[Lefty]

Sunny and UglyDuck are my picks for the scum team after power skimming 3 pages.

lmk

[xRECKONERx]

ok im not in that group so i wont argue

[Sunlit Diamond]

The votes for Chronic prior to his explanation and unvote I can sorta understand, but VOTE: Chardev's vote was pretty terrible. I'm pretty damn sure Chronic just used the wrong words to describe RVS (i.e. did not actually mean he wanted to randomly lynch someone). He said this is his first game, and it's far from the first time I've seen newbies have vocabulary problems.

Took all of two seconds to come to that conclusion, so why push a vote instead of discuss what happened, Chardev?

[Papa Zito]

I'm pretty damn sure Chronic just used the wrong words to describe RVS (i.e. did not actually mean he wanted to randomly lynch someone). He said this is his first game, and it's far from the first time I've seen newbies have vocabulary problems.

Took all of two seconds to come to that conclusion, so why push a vote instead of discuss what happened, Chardev?

That's a hell of an assumption to make and I'm confused why you'd leap to that conclusion instead of drawing out an actual answer.

[Papa Zito]

I can already tell Lefty is gonna be a bro this game hurray.

[UglyDuck]

sorry all I had some IRL stuff pop up right when I jumped in this. It is done now so I should be around.

I still don't get the comment about "ICs being more likely to be town" - however, I did read Chardev's response. It also makes me think Chardev is skum because town does not normally speak for others this early on.


so

VOTE: Chardev

[teacher]

Since I had a good go at the casino, I’ll give it a try. Preflop, an IC is 78% likely to role town - the same as you and me.

[UglyDuck]

Since I had a good go at the casino, I’ll give it a try. Preflop, an IC is 78% likely to role town - the same as you and me.

Accurate - however, IC's in n008 games are also going to be "superior at the game". So someone wanting to lynch them, given they have the same 22% chance to role skum as the rest of us, strikes me as skummy. I believe the Pro Town play would be to not lynch the strong player for as long as possible. If they are Town then, Skum is forced to either keep them alive for WIFOM or kill them off. If they are Skum then they will assuredly help with the Skum teams attack, but at a certain point they will be suspected anyways for simply being alive still in the game.

In the end it is just a math problem - and I believe that the 22% of the time the IC is Skum is out weighed by the 88% of the time they will be Town. Percentages aside, the input they provide in comparison to the rest of the players is going to be useful to use later on in the game. So keeping them alive for "a while" normally seems like an appealing play to me.

On the other hand, it is very hard to read new players. Especially on such a large site where they may not in fact be a new player. A new player has the same 22% chance of being skum as an IC.
However, if the new player is actually an experienced player, and Town, they will help... as opposed to a new yet experienced player that is Skum would be more likely to play the "new player card".
And then if a new player is actually a new player, and Town, they will do their best but come off as new... as opposed to the same scenario if they are Skum where they still just come off as new.
In these games I find the most viable option is to lynch skummies, then noobies, then the experienced players, and then obviously in last - the townies. Clearly all town would lynch skummy players over towny players, but the point is that when there is no content - lynch the noobs first.

[UglyDuck]

Sunny and UglyDuck are my picks for the scum team after power skimming 3 pages.

lmk

whysies?

[brassherald]

Votecount 1.05

iChronicDemonic (3) -

Completly Trustworthy, xRECKONERx, Chardev

UglyDuck (2) -

Papa Zito, Lefty

Chardev (2) -

Sunlit Diamond, UglyDuck

Not Voting (5) -

iChronicDemonic, teacher

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-07-26 21:00:00)
Sunlit Diamond will be VLA on 7/20 (This means the prod timer will be extended from the usual 30 hours to 45 hours)

[Chardev]

Demonic actually changed his reasoning. First, he said that he was sheeping people (post 63). Then, he said that it was a random lynch (post 66). Since this is his first game, I can kind of understand the vocabulary issues...but not the flipflopping.
However, looking back, it probably wasn't worth a vote. Yet.

UNVOTE: for now.

Spoiler: My thoughts so far:

Chardev

:

Confirmed town

from my perspective.

CT

: Didn't seem to fully understand the RVS but that's acceptable, since he's a newbie. Then spends a good portion of his posts fooling around with his questions. He does have some good contributions, so

slight town lean.

iCD

: Exactly four posts, all of which involved the random Papa Zito vote. Not much to look at here, so

null

, but I'm starting not to like this.

UglyDuck

: Very little activity for me to read, but what I do see gives a fairly good impression. He did vote me but that's understandable. However, the lack of activity means that he only recieves the rank of

slight town lean

.

Lefty

: Showed up out of nowhere, voted for UglyDuck without providing a reason, and stating that him and Sunny are scum without providing a reason. I most certainly don't like this.

Scum lean

.

teacher

: Only three posts, and only one actually contributed anything to the game.

Null.

Sunny

: Exactly three posts related to scumhunting. These posts have a good amount of content, however.

Town lean

.

Reckoner

: Random votes Zito, gets asked about it, later votes iCD due to his content.

Null

, as I don't have much to read here.

Zito

: Does appear to be solving the game, but I can't get much from him...

Slight town lean

.

The lack of posting is making analysis difficult, hence why I'm being indecisive.
Currently, I believe Lefty should be our number one focus, due to the random vote past RVS, no helpful content, and announcing Sunny and UglyDuck to be scum without providing a reason.

[teacher]

Hello everyone, glad to start my first game
VOTE: WhyReadThis

Also, xRECKONERx, why did you vote for Zito with no stated reason? Was it random or not?

This side-by-side conversation really tweaked me. It is a question, but seems designed to elicit a defensive answer (Reck’s not the right place to go for that). Moreover it is a question about something you did. Finally, it is a question about an RVS vote in post 11. Seems LAMISTy. Trust – I know your 15 spoke to this a little bit, but can you talk more about it?

[teacher]

1. What is your experience at Mafia

RL years ago; appr. 9 forum games now.

2. How do you play as town

I Obv!town.
[quote="In post 223. How do you play as scum[/quote] I Obv!town.

4. What do you think gives away a player as scum or town

Motivations, probabilities, and associations. For each post, I try to ascertain the

motive

behind it. Does it seem town-motivated or scum-motivated. To be sure, both town and scum have similar objectives, but they arent overlapping. Town is not as afraid of being lynched, because there will be a mislynch at some point; scum knows that their death is 50% of a loss. Town wants to out real analysis to advance the game; scum wants to repeat information that everybody knows so they can appear to be helping without actually doing it. Another key area of difference is in

probabilities

. Here, I cant say it much better than a strategy article from the Wiki (link). I'll talk more about associations tomorrow if Im kicking.

[teacher]

EBWOP

1. What is your experience at Mafia

RL years ago; appr. 9 forum games now.

2. How do you play as town

I Obv!town.

3. How do you play as scum

I Obv!town.

4. What do you think gives away a player as scum or town

Motivations, probabilities, and associations. For each post, I try to ascertain the

motive

behind it. Does it seem town-motivated or scum-motivated. To be sure, both town and scum have similar objectives, but they arent overlapping. Town is not as afraid of being lynched, because there will be a mislynch at some point; scum knows that their death is 50% of a loss. Town wants to out real analysis to advance the game; scum wants to repeat information that everybody knows so they can appear to be helping without actually doing it. Another key area of difference is in

probabilities

. Here, I cant say it much better than a strategy article from the Wiki (link). I'll talk more about associations tomorrow if Im kicking.[/quote]

[teacher]

Chardev, why are you misrepresenting what CT asked? Your vote reason was obviously RVS (unless you're scum in which case props for being honest), but I can see why a newbie would want clarification.

I do not believe that word (Misrepresent) means what you think it means. And its a pretty loaded word. Trust (btw, I use this shortform because its easier to search the game for) asked if a vote was random. Chardev said it was random -- answering the direct question asked, though it turns out it wasn't asked of them.

[teacher]

Also, Zito, why did you switch your vote to UglyDuck? Was their one post suspicious?Also, this came right after Reckoner said he voted for you due to a post where you voted for him, so that seems a little odd to me.

FORCED.

I think that keeping my vote on WhyReadThis is the best decision for now, especially since they confirmed, but have not posted so far. This seems like intentional lurking, especially since they are aware a game is going on. Without any explanation for their absence, I have to suspect them.

FORCED.

Trust, give some consideration to the fact that Zito and Reck know each other and cross-voted just for yuks. Also RVS in my semilimited experience here generally lasts until appr. pg.4 in a 9 player game, with some players hopping about simply to reaction test.

[teacher]

VOTE: Papa Zito

Rule of three.

[teacher]

I believe that the 22% of the time the IC is Skum is out weighed by the 88% of the time they will be Town.

I love an IC who gives 110% My view on the whole shebang is that the IC should be treated the same as any other player, and not get special attention for being the IC. Plus, Im soulreading Zito as town.

[teacher]

I'm pretty damn sure Chronic just used the wrong words to describe RVS (i.e. did not actually mean he wanted to randomly lynch someone). He said this is his first game, and it's far from the first time I've seen newbies have vocabulary problems.

Took all of two seconds to come to that conclusion, so why push a vote instead of discuss what happened, Chardev?

That's a hell of an assumption to make and I'm confused why you'd leap to that conclusion instead of drawing out an actual answer.

I actually was inclined to this view too. Seeing alot of newb there, so its NAI pending further discussion of thoughtprocess and clearing of potential contradictions. But it struck me as the sort of newb who might get scared into lurk regardless of alignment from all the pressue they got all of a sudden.

@Chronic, that would be the worst thing you can do if youre town. Try to come out and talk more. Dont worry about the pressure. At some point this game, I guarantee, a towny will be mislynched. That's not THAT bad. Whereas for scum, getting lynched is half of a loss. So better for town to stand tall, even if they are on the way to the gallows, and try to help their side.

[teacher]

Im done with my spam posting now, fully caught up and I wont do that again.

[Completly Trustworthy]

UNVOTE: IChronicDemonic
It now looks like Demonic is simply new and doesn't understand all the facets of the game. Therefore; I would encourage there not to be a wagon on them at this point in time since it would be easy to pressure a new player for a relatively talented scumteam.
Teacher, you are right, some of my posts were forced. I was among the only active players for a while and wanted to get the game going. That is why I suspected Zito, he did something suspicious, didn't answer my question straight-up, and I had insufficient evidence to suspect anyone else. As for my question to Reckoner, I added the phrase "was it random to not" to ensure I didn't get questioned by him over my hypocrisy when it comes to random voting. I suspect others when they do it, but think its fine myself. Chardev had already called that out and I wanted to make sure that Reckoner understand my true question. I did not intend to load the question, it was mere clarification of what I truly wanted to be answered.

[Chardev]

I'd really like to see a post from Lefty now. Why do you suspect UglyDuck/Sunny?

[Papa Zito]

I love an IC who gives 110%

I ALWAYS USUALLY GIVE IT MY ALL

You clearly have some suspicion of Friend Lando here... why didn't you vote him?

---

I'm disappointed to see the Chronic wagon dissipate so quickly. Seeing a player react to pressure is a

good

thing. That's an opportunity to form a read that's now gone since the votes have moved elsewhere.

I'll go ahead and talk about what I was thinking since this ship has sailed: Personally I felt the unvote was more telling than the vote was. Townies bandwagon all the time, there's nothing inherently wrong with doing so. I'd have been fine with it if Chronic had stuck to his guns and left his vote where it was, at least then it'd be clear that he was doing something to help move the game along and apply pressure to a player slot that's been somewhat reticent in supplying information (both towny things to do). Instead we have a player who immediately unvotes and goes into hiding. On the surface this reeks of self-preservation, a much more scum-oriented trait than a town one, but you can never be sure so that's why I started questioning him in 69 (ayy).


In other news, UglyDuck needs more votes.

[teacher]

You clearly have some suspicion of Friend Lando here... why didn't you vote him?

Because a cold read through misses the "feel"/gestalt of a live game, so I wanted to see what both he and the board would say before I voted. Given his comments, I also want to go back and read the timestamps, not just the text. Also, I was surprised nobody (except you, a little) twigged him on it before, so wanted to give the board a chance to react without thinking it would necessarily lead to votes. But I am leaning that way.

[teacher]

Mod: Im low access weekends. I understand the new deadlines/prodtimers and will likely get at least a mobile post in, but just letting you know.