OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)

[Sando]

Has anyone actually given a reason why brass is town? Or is it just y'all feel enigma/whoever is scummier?

He contributed well in a generally townie fashion. He's not a D1 lynch imo, but no, I'm not lock-towning him or anything. I tend to think Cardi's schtick comes from town much more often than scum, but I have no data to back that up, just a gut read on that situation.

[the worst]

VOTE COUNT 1.20

Sando (0)

~

skitter30 (0)

~

AP (1)

~ Invisibility,

Cardi B (1)

~ BuJaber,

BuJaber (1)

~ Sando,

Ausuka (0)

~

Skygazer (1)

~ Ausuka,

vulcan logician (1)

~ OkaPoka,

ceejayvinoya (0)

~

ruru (0)

~

ofrhz (0)

~

Invisibility (2)

~ ruru, skitter30,

OkaPoka (1)

~ Cardi B,

Enigma (1)

~ ofrhz,

NOT VOTING:

AP, Enigma, ceejayvinoya, vulcan logician, Skygazer,

with 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

day one will end in (expired on 2018-07-25 18:30:00)

mod notes:

- skitter30 v/la Fridays & Saturdays
- quack

[OkaPoka]

how are wagons getting weaker and weaker and less people are voting as this day goes by

[BuJaber]

how are wagons getting weaker and weaker and less people are voting as this day goes by

Exactly. I don't think scum are leading town in any way.

It seems we've hit a beautiful balance of personalities and pov's that town just aren't collectively finding any one thing scummy and scum don't want to draw too much attention to themselves.

That said...I'm still comfortable with my d1 lynchpool of cardi, vulcan, enigma.

Might be willing to add AP to the list. He hasn't been impressive yet.

I think there absolutely has to be scum among the rest but the rest are harder to identify as scum because most are appearing quite townie so far or true neutral.

[Ausuka]

I do think counterwagons have been attempted though, you can see Oka, invisibilty, vulcan and brass/cardi and even ceejay catching multiple votes since the enigma wagon started. I do think there's bound to be scum in that group of people but there's also a ton of potential lynchbait in that pile so I think it's very likely that some of those were attempted counterwagons that never gained traction assuming Enigma is scum.

okapoka wagon was very early and was made up of skitter + brass + AP + Invis.
Invis wagon was never really a serious threat? and is made up of cjv + brass + okapoka
vulcan wagon was after the enigma wagon had been just the uncompeted leading wagon for a long time, and was just me + okapoka. not really a counterwagon effort.
brass wagon was literally not a thing. like seriously there was never more than 1 vote on brass.
cjv wagon was a meme.

none of these seem like counterwagons to me, especially given the large cross-section between those voting and those being voted, and the large gap in time between many of them when enigma wagon was uncontested.

[Ausuka]

to me enigma is no longer really a viable lynch option. there is a complete and utter lack of any sort of counter to the wagon. scum are content with the gamestate as it is.

Scum got bussed with little resistance d1 in the last game I played

I'm not sure if that's a reason to stop scumreading someone

I guess scum can just sit on their bus all day? but if that's true lynching on the enigma wagon is still not a bad thing in any way

[OkaPoka]

isnt that why they were attempts and not actual counterwagons

[Ausuka]

AP always looks like scum though

Invis looked like town in my last game with him

idk I see invis as town getting mislynched really often.

[Ausuka]

isnt that why they were attempts and not actual counterwagons

If the scumteam is so incompetent that they can't even set up a counterwagon to one of their members who is getting wagoned while actively trying to make said counterwagon, we'll win this game anyway so I don't see much need to worry about that possibility.

[OkaPoka]

VOTE: AP

im going back to this

[Invisibility]

ugh i have no idea who's scum but gut tells me its AP

[Ausuka]

sorry if i missed this but why are people scumreading AP?

[OkaPoka]

because he isn't doing anything

[AP]

@Oka: I know my playstyle is probably puzzling you, but there's always a way to solve your dilemma and end your confusion: ASK me about my alignment.

Now if I'm town I will tell you so, and will be

telling the truth

If I'm scum though I'd still be telling you I'm town, but then

I would be lying

See? Easy. I'f I'm telling the truth I'm town and if I'm lying I'm scum, and it works 100% of the time.

I hope that helps.

[AP]

NOT VOTING: AP, Enigma, ceejayvinoya, vulcan logician, Skygazer,

We need 2 more

unvotes

here. Let's get a claim, shall we?

[Ausuka]

AP what are your reads?

[AP]

Seriously though

ruru is 100% town to me.
ofrhz and Oka are next level town
I think Enigma might be town

Everyone else is more or less "in the mix", and while I don't have an explicit scum read yet I might be inclined to pressure the lower numbers (outside of those I think are town already), so Sky > Vulcan > Vizzy > Skitter ... etc

[AP]

AP what are your reads?

There are pros and cons to everyone playing how they play having picked what they picked as either alignment.

That is to say, I can see Sky playing the way she does as either alignment, and it's almost a given she got her PR of choice regardless of her alignment. (Unless she sent for Vig/PGO ) and so on. In the previous run of this setup I did try a similar approach and it backfired because I assumed those who picked the lowest numbers were scum and those who had duplicate picks had one scum in then at most .. etc, which made my reads based on the draft numbers alone a mess.

[Ausuka]

ohhhh yeah sky is 2nd in the draft ugh

UNVOTE:

[Ausuka]

ofrhz what are your reads?

[ruru]

Players high in the draft are more likely to get sorted by scum so I don't think it's inherently better to lynch there

I feel like the utility of PRs to town vs. scum (favors not lynching draft winners imo) and scum being more likely to be higher in the draft (favors lynching draft winners) are both secondary concerns d1

[skitter30]

I'm back! Too many flights!

So I get what skitter is saying about the Enigma wagon, not sure I agree, but the principle is sound. Not sure why she doesn't follow through with the analysis and look into the people involved or not involved in the wagon. Strikes me as a very long and roundabout way to say "Enigma is town" rather than actually scumhunting. See her points about scum being happy with gamestate...doesn't progress the gamestate.

a) *things that i can't say right now*.

idk, sometimes i just get a better sense of a player's alignment based on how people are acting around them, and not from how they're actually behaving themselves, and resistance to wagon or complacency to a wagon speaks volumes if you know how to read that

b) and like, that's why i decided to hop off - it was stagnating and wasn't really going anywhere, which is why i'm now trying to vote elsewhere to see if that will pick up.

wrt scum on the wagon i'm townreading ruru and to a certain extent cj, and ofrhz's vote made a lot of sense to me in that context, so if there were scum on it i think it's in {ausuka, sky}

what do you think about invisibility?

--

Has anyone actually given a reason why brass is town? Or is it just y'all feel enigma/whoever is scummier?

I think Invis is a lazy wagon for day 1. I'm starting to think he's harder to sort than Not_Mafia and that is no easy task by itself. Most of the time it's pure guess work and I'm saying this while considering myself moderately experienced in playing with NM.

i liked brass's *very* early posts regarding the draft analysis but i haven't really seen much ai from him either way beyond not really liking his pressure vote on ausuka and vizzy (vizzy = invisibility); and then of course he repped out and cardi repped in

i get what you're saying with vizzy; maybe we should let pr's sort him out? i guess the way you feel about vizzy is kinda how i feel about cardi; it's very very hard for me to read her with the roleplaying thing

but i guess the difference between like vizzy and cardi is that cardi i can at least see her putting effort into solving the game and i can tell that she's thinking about what she's writing (even if i don't understand it), and she hasn't posted since her catchup so idk if she'll tone it down or not; atm voting her would feel akin to a policy vote to me tbh and i feel like ... there's better places for my vote tbh

and vizzy is just lolvoting and voteparking based on 'gut pings' and i don't really see him trying to sort people like at all.

can you give me a tldr on why you dislike brass? is it still just a gut/meta read that he's more confident as scum than as town? beyond that and the sando-distancing thing i'm not really sure why else you're scumreading him tbh

in {cardi, vulcan, and enigma} i'm not really feeling cardi right now and the gamestate supports town!engima i think

i could join you on vulcan if that became a thing; i feel like they're posting to just ... post if that makes sense? like they keep making a production about catching up and how they're going to iso people but that isn't really happening; and their isos of half the game were kinda bland with lots of nulls

it feels like active lurking to me; or like scum who doesn't really know what to post or where to push; there's quite a lot of content for someone to engage with catching up on like a 20 page game and they're just ... not; instead they're just promising content but it's not really happening

--

AP always looks like scum though

Invis looked like town in my last game with him

idk I see invis as town getting mislynched really often.

links?

--

Seriously though

ruru is 100% town to me.
ofrhz and Oka are next level town
I think Enigma might be town

Everyone else is more or less "in the mix", and while I don't have an explicit scum read yet I might be inclined to pressure the lower numbers (outside of those I think are town already), so Sky > Vulcan > Vizzy > Skitter ... etc

are you really just suspecting people based on their draft order? that's honestly kinda a lazy way to analyze the game; you're not really taking into account people's behavior since the draft pick

[Enigma]

Sorry, been really busy with friends staying over - quick catch up post.

617 is a really townie train of thought so town points to skitter.

But he didn't even present the paper until after being pressed for it and he doesn't fully understand it and hasn't even brought up the paper until now iirc so I'm inclined to believe that Enigma just wanted on that wagon so he made up shaky statistics and then tried to back it up after the fact when pressed. If he had that paper ahead of time why would he wait until now to present it after all of this pressing on him? Why not just show it early to get rid of the suspicions early? Instead he just kept saying game theory over and over.

Probably because I suspected it was somewhat flawed, and didn't expect people to continue tunnelling me on it as well. And then I just played the lalalala game, then realised it would like be byebye me and bad for town if I continue so I thus I present this to you and everyone involved.

Also, agree with you on the townie train of thought for skitter with extra +++ and sprinkles on top.

@cardi are you an alt?

Duckling didn't post the replacement request publicly, so this is not some random. Probs a duckling's lover's RP alt. And then after writing this, I read 20 questions from Oka for her ... give up already. She ain't interested in you, but maybe interested in being vigbait.

So you think he just googled that paper when he was pressured to defend his vote?

The thing is that I'm kinda seeing those underlying assumptions all the way from the beginning of his iso, like all the way from his first posts - he def was thinking about this along these lines since like his first post imo

I guess with daytalk I kinda imagine what I would do and I would def have discussed my strategy with my partners, but yeah you have a point wrt uglyduck

Also okay maybe that doesn't make sense either

How about these scenarios

1. Enigma googles the paper primarily to try to find out what number

he

should pick, which would, like, make sense
2a. Enigma votes based on incomplete understanding of the paper (I still think the vote is kind of scummy because it's a way to look like you're scumhunting without actually scumhunting, remember my rvs vote in 1859?)

or

2b. Enigma votes because he wants to join the wagon, then makes up the link between his vote and the paper he already read because his vote was receiving negative attention

And regardless of which case it is I don't think the information contained in the paper is more interesting to town than it is to scum, so at best it's nai that he voted based on it and like he's still scummy in general

Porque no los dos (1 y 2a).

[ruru]

I meant 1+2a or 1+2b as possibilities

[Enigma]

To be honest, the vote I would get behind today would be Invisibility. The lack of association with other players, ignoring my wagon (scum buddies already on it) completely, posting votes with zero meaning or significance to slip under the radar, no scumhunting effort really, entire read of players being null + voting AP despite reading him null, etc. etc. the list goes on.

I don't like BuJaber, SkyGazer or Oka directions (for today). Cardi B lynch will provide no useful information at all today. Vulcan a null. Could be convinced on AP.

VOTE: Invisibility

PS: if he flips red, me feels SvS with AP.