Newbie 1882 - Game Over

[Skygazer]

Sorry, Reckoner, I got distracted by Skygazer's first posts and didn't notice your vote change.

I have that effect on people

[teacher]

I’m going to do a weekend catchup read tonight in a couple hours, but I wanted to float my current thinking while I was away before doing that. I’m leaning towards a light policy of Chronic. The momentum behind UD has been too easy - no serious counterwagon push or opposition is making me think scum is happy with that staying in the lead. I don’t think we can get quiet town to coalesce behind another slot fast enough given the pools I have seen so far. That leaves Chronic, who is either:

• town that scum will never nk and be a liability at lylo because of their newbness (tbh I find this more likely but am still ok with the outcome)
  
• scum that got told to hide behind the newb card (quite possible)

[teacher]

Also for lando and the other newbs. We want to be at L-1 in about 24 hours, so that there is time for a claim and finding an alternative wagon. But I will talk more on my thinking quite late tonight.

[Skygazer]

The momentum behind UD has been too easy - no serious counterwagon push or opposition is making me think scum is happy with that staying in the lead. I don’t think we can get quiet town to coalesce behind another slot fast enough given the pools I have seen so far.

Why no mention of the chardev wagon? If getting to L-1 is so important than why are you pushing to lynch a player with zero votes as of right now?

[teacher]

Because Chronic has been scum and null read and my sense is that they are the best compromise lynch. I townread Chardev as ive previously explained (still mobile so not linking). What I was trying to express is that my acumread of UD has gotten weaker. I’d still rather SUnny but Chronic has been promoted to second and wanted to see if I could start some movement before I make a longer post with the argument and theory because that will come too late for most people.

[Skygazer]

I still think Chronic is potential lynch bait.

Chronic

, have you ever played mafia on a different, faster-paced website, like epicmafia or town of salem?

[Skygazer]

@Brass, could Chronic be prodded please?

[brassherald]

@Brass, could Chronic be prodded please?

Prodding now.

[xRECKONERx]

Reck, thoughts on UglyDuck?

Duck kinda lurked early and really overreacted to me asking where he was.
The stuff since then has been overdefensive but I dunno if that's a scumtell or just newbietell so it's mostly null for me.

[teacher]

Duck aint a newb.

[teacher]

@Stargazer: Welcome. I very light townleaned Lefty, but would love to get some more action into the game.

I just read over everything since Friday, and tbh, it wasnt enough to convince me to change my pools or reads. So Im going to speak briefly about my approach to D1 in a newb game.

Its 7/2. Distancing is definitely a thing. But Bussing -- scum voting scum when serious lynch time comes -- is more of a D2+ thing. So to lynch scum today, we need to convince a supermajority of town to all land in the same place 5/7, or 71%.

Thus far, UD is the common suspect. And I get why. They were high on my lynchpool. But my issue is that, even after I made my pool and L-1 leaning apparent, there has been no serious counterpush. There is no serious counter push or wagon now. Simply, I dont think this is scum, because if it was I would expect a little more activity in general. I think its been quiet in part because scum are happy to let town burn itself.

So I want to find another compromise target. It doesnt look like my number 1 candidate, Sunny, is happening, even though nobody has told me whats wrong with my case. So the next spot on my list is Chronic. To be honest, I agree with Stargazer that this is probably lynchbait. My read is pure null (so 75% chance of town). But that's my issue. If I cant catch scum, Id like to at least remove town liabilities. And if Chronic is town (an open question, hes certainly done nothing to help town), scum is never going to nightkill him because he isnt advancing or solving the game.

[Skygazer]

But Bussing -- scum voting scum when serious lynch time comes -- is more of a D2+ thing. So to lynch scum today, we need to convince a supermajority of town to all land in the same place 5/7, or 71%.

I've seen scum bus on D1 during "serious lynch time." I think it's pretty dangerous to assume scum won't bus on D1.

But my issue is that, even after I made my pool and L-1 leaning apparent, there has been no serious counterpush. There is no serious counter push or wagon now. Simply, I dont think this is scum, because if it was I would expect a little more activity in general. I think its been quiet in part because scum are happy to let town burn itself.

You made your pool apparent only like two-to-three days ago and there just hasn't been a whole lot of activity in this game to begin with. I'm not sure how you made it apparent that you were leaning L-1 because you specifically said that it's too early to place someone at L-1. Between CT and Zito (and myself), I don't really see anyone on the UglyDuck wagon as scum at this moment. I think that if scum were content with this, there would be scum on the wagon, and this may be a bit preemptive to say this, but I don't think there is. There is a second serious wagon right now - chardev. Chardev has an equal amount of votes to UD, one of those votes was made recently, and all three players on the wagon [UD, Reck, Sunny] are in your lynch pool. Doesn't that stick out to you at all? I think you're being a bit too quick to discount the wagon.

Anyways, I'd much rather lynch a player I find scummy than settle for a flashwagon-policy-compromise three days before deadline. I mean, there's already a possibility that chronic flaked and will be replaced, anyways.

[brassherald]

Votecount 1.12

UglyDuck (3) -

Papa Zito, Lefty, Completly Trustworthy

Chardev (3) -

Sunlit Diamond, UglyDuck, xRECKONERx

Sunlit Diamond (1) -

teacher

Lefty (1) -

Chardev

Not Voting (1) -

iChronicDemonic

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-07-26 21:00:00)
teacher is usually VLA weekends

[teacher]

Fair enough points.

VOTE: UglyDuck

That is L-1. I will deqrhrunnel anyone who quickhammers.

[Chardev]

UglyDuck is under review. This means I will iso him and put him under a lot of scrutiny. This is NOT a declaration of intent to hammer, but it may become one.

[teacher]

If it does become one post a separate intent please and give time.

[Chardev]

25 - doesn't understand math.

NAI

.
80 - Apologizes for not posting earlier, votes me for defending other people. I get why this would be scummy, but that's probably not worth a lynch on its own.

Scummy

.
82 - Nice good long post about probability and the IC...in where he also flip-flops opinion, so

NAI

. (And as a side note, please, PLEASE do not keep a scum IC alive just because he's the IC.)
83 - Questions Lefty's scumteam pick.

NAI

.
112 - Tells Lefty that gut is not a good scumhunting tool. While it's not good on its *own*, this is D1 and you'll have to use it a bit. Also doesn't understand what question Lefty was talking about when it was clearly his first post.

Scummy

.
113 - Clarifies the whole 25-82 nonsense. Still think he should have gotten it before post 80, so

NAI

.
114 - Tells off Reckoner for asking where he (UglyDuck) is.

NAI

, but I really don't like this.
115 - Request for people to post reads. No substantial content.
116 - Naming the Charisma list. No substantial content.
117 - Asks Papa Zito why he thinks he's scum.

NAI

.
118 - Asks people if they think there's scum between me and demon. This seems an awful lot like a way to suspect someone without providing a reason!

Scummy

.
141 - Refines the read request. This seems ok.

Towny

.
151 - Questions Lefty. Again,

Towny

.
162 - Corrects VC error. No substantial content.
172 - Responds to CT...in a rather unsettling matter.

NAI

.
173 - EBWOP.

Based on this, I think that UglyDuck is...drumroll please...

SCUM!

Intent to hammer.

[Papa Zito]

Zito-Why is posting a list of reads not beneficial?

The scum team has a decision to make during the night - they have to figure out which one of us they're going to remove from the game. The smartest play for them is to remove the player they're going to have the hardest time getting a mislynch on. If everyone posts full readlists, they can gather this info.

Zito-Are my points against Duck good or not? You mentioned my post was long, but not your opinions on it.

Like I said I to Reck I didn't go in depth on it, mainly because I agree with the target. I'll take a hard look at lunch today when I have some time.

@UglyDuck:

At this point, with intent to hammer given, you should fully claim your role so the town has maximum information to make a decision.

[teacher]

Since intent has been out for a while, and I'm going to be offline for the next bit, I'm going to make a twilight ish post in case the hammer comes.

I find it interesting that nobody is saying anything. Interesting that everybody is on one of two wagons (given intent) or not voting at all. Interesting that, until the intent, the wagons were not cross-voting.

If Duck flips scum, I'm most suspicious of Reck. If Duck flips town, I'm going to be a lot more open to both Chardev and Skygazer.

[Completly Trustworthy]

Chardev, don't lynch Duck before this day is over, we need to give them time to respond. I too am suspicious of this wagon being scum-motivated and wish for there to be further discussion. There are still a few days left before time runs out, we shouldn't get too hasty.

[Papa Zito]

Apologies in advance for the incoming quote wall.

In 25, you ask why I didn't want anyone to vote for the IC after I had already explained it.

I agree, and this was what pinged me initially. I didn't understand why a player would choose to dogpile on a point that had already been sufficiently explained.

Only to agree with me totally and support the IC in 82

Again I agree. This seemed contradictory given 25.

To me, the bigger issue with this post was that it was by far Duck's largest contribution to the game to that point but it did nothing to advance the game state. It's all theory talk, there's nothing of real substance and certainly nothing that helps him or us determine who the scumteam is.

You didn't include 83 in your list, which was another I had issue with - despite having not, to this point, said anything game-related at all, UglyDuck chooses to question someone's scumread on his slot over commenting on anything else.

In 113, you give an explanation for your change of mind, but many people had clarified what I had meant by the IC comment earlier, so I find it odd you did not realize by post 80.

UglyDuck later repeats in 172 that he made a "mistake" and was using 82 to clarify. If that were the case, why didn't he state that he'd made a mistake when he wrote 82? Why didn't he mention that he was trying to set the record straight when he wrote 82? It would've been simple to write "Sorry guys I misunderstood, here's what I really meant: blahblahblah"

This really seemed, to me, to be trying to justify a bad post in hindsight.

In114, you admit that you have done jack, but don't seem to try harder afterwards.

Irritating but not alignment indicative. As part of a pattern of throwing shade then maybe.

In 115, you ask for reads from two other people rather than yourself

It's certainly strange that he thought he can demand things of other players while not really participating but I think that's an experience thing and not an alignment thing.

What struck me here wasn't really the content but the timing. At this point he's been called out on not doing anything so suddenly he's asking for reads. The targets he's asking for reads from seem random and there's no follow-up of any kind.

You skip 117 where he's once again concerned about reads on his own slot instead of worrying about sorting others.

In 118, you suggest Chardev,Demon,or both are scum, which are reads with no reasoning involved as to how you got them.

I'm less concerned about not posting reasoning and more concerned about the way the question is raised. There's really no reason to pair those two particular players together. It seems more like he's reminding the town that there are other viable options than him.

In 141, you say it is acceptable for people to not post reads list in response to your question, which makes it seem as if you do not care much about hunting for scum and gathering information.

So theoretically he's correct, he doesn't have to post reads to ask for them. In practice you can't really expect other players to give information to you when you don't give any in return. He has 0 standing in the game at this point having done nothing to advance the game so again it's strange to think he can make demands of other players, but that's not necessarily alignment indicative. What was more interesting to me was the last sentence, that he was "having trouble figuring out where you were at reading your isos" - were those really the only two he had difficulty sorting? I have a hard time believing that. This seems more like a player Trying To Be Town instead of just being Town.

In 151, you do not argue that you are not scum or ask for more information about why you are scumread, but merely ask Lefty who they also scumread. I know this point may not be too strong, but the question still seems weird coming from a town member.

I have no issues with this particular post.

[teacher]

Also I don’t think the hammer should fall until 24hrs after the prod (937 my time) to give the optimal chance of replacing Chronic

[UglyDuck]

I actually do not know what the correct play here is, this is an odd situation given Mafia day chat + potential other town roles. Not to mention the counter wagon being the potential hammer. But whatever:


I am the Town Jail Keeper.


Chardev still my favorite choice. Teacher could be considered as well.

For those of you actually town, you seriously need to read through my responses from an unbiased POV.

Going to a company Event for the Ms' so I would appreciate it if I could fade the hammer for like 5 hours if there are any responses I need to get to.

[Papa Zito]

Hmm.

UglyDuck in 141 you say you're having trouble sorting teacher. What changed between then and 222?

[teacher]

VOTE: Sunny. Don't want the hammer in the air, so mostly going back to where I was for a holding pattern.

UD, why the full roleclaim now, rather than just a PR (to leave ambiguity over whether you could be protected)? Any softs to point to?

But I do have to reconsider the board, and also check out the possible setups, since I think that basically assures us of two PRs but am not positive off the top of my head.