Newbie 1882 - Game Over

[Papa Zito]

The smartest play for them is to remove the player they're going to have the hardest time getting a mislynch o

presumably, with a semi-protective role claimed, this objection has been overtaken by events? Or are you still opposed?

I am still opposed, nothing has really changed there.

I'm concerned by your line of thinking because you seem to be operating with more information than I have. You're making assumptions about scum team power that you shouldn't be.

Same question I asked to Papa: How is a fullclaim ("JK") better than a partial claim ("PR") AT THIS POINT rather than start of D2?

Like Reck said, this is basic best practice.

What you seem to be missing is that we had to make a decision

at the time of the claim

. UglyDuck was sitting at L-1 with intent to hammer given. There isn't a tomorrow to evaluate, we have to evaluate then and there. The majority of town has already declared this player as most suspicious. You don't let the most suspicious player in the game live another night.

When a player claims, you need a full claim then and there, full stop. The town needs maximum information to decide whether or not to lynch that player. Just look at the posts following his claim:

I just looked at the setups and noticed that jailkeeper is a terrible fakeclaim. Only setup c3 does not feature a cop, jailkeeper, or neapolitan, so Duck should be believed. I'll unvote while trying to figure out which wagon to join or start next.
UNVOTE: UglyDuck

Lando does not make this post if the only information he gets is "PR".

His unvote is due to receiving the information provided by the fullclaim

I think that jailkeeper would be a horrible fakeclaim as others have pointed out.

...

UNVOTE:

Again,

Skygazer can't make this post without having full claim knowledge

.

In addition, by just claiming "PR" a fakeclaiming scum player gets to live by being vague. You yourself have made multiple calls for people to counter and you yourself explained why it's beneficial to do so:

But for the rest of the board I will comment that it is always worth it to trade a PR for a scum in a 7-2 setup. Cop, Neapolitan, or JK are counterclaims to UD's claim. IT would be worthwhile to have a counter.

We don't have this opportunity without the full claim.

It's boggling that you're seeing the benefits of the full claim play out right here in the thread and then complaining that it happened.

[teacher]

You're making assumptions about scum team power that you shouldn't be.

Where, and what assumption?

As for the theory bit, lets chat more after the game. Im getting the sense that you genuinely believe it (because "there isn't a tomorrow to evaluate"). But I genuinely disagree (because the undisputed existence of tomorrow has to be taken into account in deciding the best play today, and the fullclaim - and any counter - can come tomorrow). Speaking solely for myself, I would not lynch someone who partially claimed "PR" on D1 because the lynch is better used to sort other slots. But youre probably right that this theory point isnt enough to wagon you when I liked the rest of your play.

VOTE: Stargazer

[teacher]

FFS. VOTE: Skygazer

[Skygazer]

woah cowboy any reason for that them vote there

[Papa Zito]

You're making assumptions about scum team power that you shouldn't be.

Where, and what assumption?

Why is scum roleblocker not a possibility?

[teacher]

You're making assumptions about scum team power that you shouldn't be.

Where, and what assumption?

Why is scum roleblocker not a possibility?

It is a possibility -- 33% in our current world. But Im not seeing how that affects any of the discussion? (Sorry, Im a bit sleep deprived so if it seems like it should be obvious, Im just totally missing it right now).

[teacher]

woah cowboy any reason for that them vote there

Duck's wagon analysis and PoE of liking the other people more.

[Papa Zito]

You're making assumptions about scum team power that you shouldn't be.

Where, and what assumption?

Why is scum roleblocker not a possibility?

It is a possibility -- 33% in our current world. But Im not seeing how that affects any of the discussion? (Sorry, Im a bit sleep deprived so if it seems like it should be obvious, Im just totally missing it right now).

Roleblocker trumps JK. If the roleblocker exists, the JK is getting permablocked. You don't seem to be accounting for this possibility in your posting.

[Completly Trustworthy]

Since even Teacher said he doesn't believe much of the case I made against Zito consisted of genuine points and now it seems that the conflict between them was a clash of beliefs, it makes little sense to keep my vote against Zito. My new lynchpool consists of Sunlit Diamond, Reckoner, and Ceejay since they are the players who have contributed the least. Everyone else has acted towny enough that I bet there is at last one scum in that group. I'd like to see more content from all three of them like reads or lynchpools with the reasons they suspect those players.
UNVOTE: Papa Zito

[teacher]

You're making assumptions about scum team power that you shouldn't be.

Where, and what assumption?

Why is scum roleblocker not a possibility?

It is a possibility -- 33% in our current world. But Im not seeing how that affects any of the discussion? (Sorry, Im a bit sleep deprived so if it seems like it should be obvious, Im just totally missing it right now).

Roleblocker trumps JK. If the roleblocker exists, the JK is getting permablocked. You don't seem to be accounting for this possibility in your posting.

Im not sure how it should affect my posts/views. JK being left alive and permablocked is not a terrible outcome, because that means Dr is unblocked and able to save very likely town. What am I missing?

[teacher]

Oh, @Zito, before it gets lost in the shuffle, can you explain why you thought we were too quick to unvote a PR claim? (I just find it jarring, especially now that you are using those unvotes to justify your position on the theory bit)

[Completly Trustworthy]

Teacher and Zito, what do you think of the Chardev wagon? I'm not sure whether to include him in the lynchpool or not because of the possibility that the wagon is scum-driven and two of the people in my lynchpool are on it. Do you believe he should be a suspect or think that the votes should be moved elsewhere?

[Papa Zito]

Im not sure how it should affect my posts/views. JK being left alive and permablocked is not a terrible outcome, because that means Dr is unblocked and able to save very likely town. What am I missing?

Your instructions were for the JK to target scum players, not to a potential doc.


We were too quick for the same reason as last time. Pressure on a player is a good thing. I had questions I wanted to ask. I started this in 223 but then pressure was lost. I don't think UglyDuck posts 235 if his wagon is still intact, I think we get answers there.

Bear in mind that his role claim doesn't erase everything discussed in 220. Those points all still stand. He's no longer the leading wagon because he's potentially a town power role, but he's not cleared by any means and we'd be unwise to treat him as such.

[teacher]

he's not cleared by any means and we'd be unwise to treat him as such.

In the absence of a counterclaim, youd agree he is 90% likely to be town, right? So Rand+15?

You agree that good PR play is to appear somewhat scummy so as not to attract the NK right? Doesn't that undermine 220 (not completely, because PRs should try to solve too, but at least somewhat)?

That post was a high degree of shade to be putting at him given the current board state.

*****

And yes, my instructions were for UD because we dont know whether there is a doc or not -- to use your words from 275, I was exactly not "making assumptions about scum team power." I still dont get how the existence of a roleblocker matters for my instructions to UD, because he would be blocked whether he tried to keep scum or whether he tried to heal. In other words, if we are in column A, UD's night actions are irrelevant. If we are in columns B or C, he should try to keep scum. Thus, in all circumstances, UD should try to keep scum.

[teacher]

Teacher and Zito, what do you think of the Chardev wagon? I'm not sure whether to include him in the lynchpool or not because of the possibility that the wagon is scum-driven and two of the people in my lynchpool are on it. Do you believe he should be a suspect or think that the votes should be moved elsewhere?

1. He needs an avatar.

2. Im less interested than in my three person pool, mostly for the reasons I previously discussed with you about a hundred posts ago.

3. But Im not sure I ever really understood anybody's case on him other than yours, so if Reck/Sunny/others want to speak on it, I will certainly listen.

[Papa Zito]

In the absence of a counterclaim, youd agree he is 90% likely to be town, right? So Rand+15?

I dunno what Rand+15 means.

A. We have 3 slots (Sunny, Chardev, ceejay) that have not had a chance to counter.
B. "Confirmed Town" is 100% so I'm not even sure what the purpose of this was.

You agree that good PR play is to appear somewhat scummy so as not to attract the NK right?

I do not.


@Lando: I'm doing a full reread at lunch, I'll look into Chardev then.

[teacher]

I dunno what Rand+15 means.

A term Ive picked up from this site that discussed the strength of any read. Here, taking any slot (including mine) at random, it is 78% likely to be town.

In the absence of a counterclaim

, UD is 90% likely to be town. So mechanically, UD is rand+12 town (it becomes rand +15 once I factor in my own slot).

Normally, I use +rand in a less mechanical sense, to enumerate the confidence level of my read (e.g. - rand+15->pretty darn confident; rand+10->leaning; rand+5->close to within the margin of error)

[Papa Zito]

oh god math help

[Completly Trustworthy]

Here are the reasons I have been somewhat suspicious of Chardev throughout the game:
In 7, 9, 10, 12, 16 and 20, and 27, he talks about what his suspicions levels mean and has an argument about a minor point with me, there was little new content created during those posts.
In 44, Chardev says something is NAI, which does not lead to any conclusions.
In 65, Chardev gives advice to Demonic about what is right to do and merely says he is a little more suspicious.
Then in 68, he goes ahead and votes for Demonic despite his previous post, which seemed sudden, almost as if he was hopping onto a wagon.
He unvotes in 85 defensively and posts reads which most people probably agreed on at that point.
96 is merely a repeat of his question in 85, which does not add more content.
120 features a question about Lefty's reason for suspecting Sunny even after Lefty said it was mostly gut and there was little logic involved. Also, he gives a FOS to me out of the blue which I have talked about in my previous posts.
In 146, Chardev indicates he believes that Demon and Lefty were misunderstanding earlier when they made reads and are new players.
In 168, he goes ahead and votes Lefty despite his previous post indicating his opinion was changing for the better.
214 is merely a prelude to post 216
216 may seem like it adds to the game, but my post by post analysis of Ugly Duck and Zito's comments on it probably supplied much of the information he used there. Also, this came after a two day absence, why did he return only to give an intent to hammer Ugly Duck, a town player? I think that Chardev could have supplied much more content than he has based on his early posts and is only posting to put town players under suspicion.

[teacher]

(testing something for purposes of another game entirely. This post is random).

[teacher]

(this completes the test).

[teacher]

As for game relevance - I will comment on your case Lando after Sunny either drops or picks up his prod, and Chardev has a chance to react to the role claim and numerous posts that have followed. The short version is Im not sold, but 168 is the post I have the most questions about.

[teacher]

So let’s start at the start. Trading one PR for one scum is completely worth it. And Cop, Neapolitan, or Jailkeeper is a counterclaim to duck.
SO IF YOU ARE COP, NEAPOLITAN, OR JK, CLAIM NOW.
Sorry for screaming, just wanted to make sure everyone got that point.

just cuz it was three pages ago.

[Completly Trustworthy]

I really need some comments from Sunlit Diamond or Ceejay now, I know too little about their slots right now. With only a few day until the deadline, I need to have a clear picture of all the options.

[ceejayvinoya]

Hey. Sorry I got lazy and just slept lols. Anyway,

I still think CT is town, and that Sunny, despite the absence, is also town.

Teacher is leaning town to me as well.

I've played with UD before and he actually posts this way even if he's VT. Most of the playerlist had this hard sr on him and when I nk'd kim then (I was a third party and I wouldn't win if there is still scum) i was surprised when he flipped town.

Skygazer, Zito and Reck are nulls, tho I'm getting townpings from some of Reck's posts.

Player I'm most sus of at the moment is Chardev.

VOTE: Chardev