Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Punreader]

Pun did you look at my setup stuff

Yes, but I gave my thoughts on the setup long ago.

I maintain 6 VTs is less likely than 5.
I maintain the setup with all the power roles telling the truth is more likely than the setup with one lying.
I maintain that we are underpowered with 6 VTs and a lying role. DOUBLY so if there's a pun redirector/roleblocker.

It is not impossible for a roleclaim to be pun.

It is simply quite unlikely.

I should mention that quite literally the only reason I would have for suspecting wilky would be by judging via play rather than role, and simple POE.

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE may be cleared by role, but were he not, he would still be a top townread by his play.
I still maintain you, Ankamius, are more likely town than not.
Prof Fridays is perhaps my strongest play-based townread at the moment.

By play, that leaves only wilky and Dunnstral.

Judging off of the setup rather than off of play, wilky is definitively cleared.

This is one reason I favor the Dunnstral lynch. (And also why I plan to die with my hide if Dunnstral isn't town.) Because he is all I have left.

[Ankamius]

So... almost full knowledge of the setup doesn't change or clarify anything?

[Punreader]

So... almost full knowledge of the setup doesn't change or clarify anything?

Why would it, when full knowledge of the setup now is almost identical to my prediction of the setup?

What knowledge do we have now that is different from the information I had when I made those statements?

I have long held the belief the game had around 2-4 VTs. I know now the minimum is 5, but I have said since the moment of massclaim that I have a hard time buying 6, because it would necessitate a town PR be lying and thus absent from the setup and it would give us an extra VT placing the game, a double-reduction in the town's power.

This double-reduction is the important factor. It is a triple-reduction if you believe that the last pun is a redirector/roleblocker-type role. The town has one less PR, the town has one more VT, and maybe the pun have one extra PR. Each of these swing balance further towards punsided, and I have difficulty buying it. I have since D2.

This stance hasn't changed in days, nor does it have reason to. What has changed since then?

OnTheMark, our roleblocker, flipped, but we knew his role was real anyway.
Kaede Akamatsu, our IC, flipped, but we knew Kaede was an IC for self-obvious reasons.
Alchemist21 flipped, but his role (albeit not alignment) was proven by Impossibear earlier in the game.
davesaz, the miller, flipped, confirming that he is that power role. This is the closest we have had to a flip changing my stances, and yet all it did was further support my hypothesis of a low-VT town.
Kokichi Oma, a VT, flipped, confirming an extra VT to be in the game, but by virtue of assuming we have only one pun left in the game his flip does nothing either way to confirm or disprove anything.

The extra information might help you, but it doesn't do me any good because the information gleaned from the new flips, I had already discerned day phases ago.

All I see is confirmation of facts I already knew and was taking for granted.

Why are these things suddenly groundbreaking to you? They've been there the whole game for me.

[Dunnstral]

Spoiler: Punreader doesn't die overnight, campaigns to lynch wilky

[Ankamius]

Well, mainly because I was never in a spot where my scumreads were reduced down to one before today. Even yesterday, I had more scumreads than townreads. I wouldn't even be humoring it at all if Wilky didn't strongly stick out from the brief VCA I did.

I still need to go more in depth on the few things that really stuck out to me, but it just makes a lot more sense to me that Wilky is the last scum compared to Dunnstral, albeit right now only because the way their votes move around looks a lot less sketchy on Dunnstral's side.

[Dunnstral]

Sorry guys been busy last few days. I still think Dunn is our best lynch here, willing to put Dave as town just now. Will compromise with Jungle if need be at end of day.

VOTE: Dunn

Nonsense Dunn is not confirmed town. Nowhere in Maria's role on does it say she has to post in the thread for her target. It was a gambit and now the question is wether the gambit was done on genuine town or a scum partner.

I'll L-1 Dave to get this over and done with but tomorrow we lynch Dunn

VOTE: Dave L-1

Let's do what we should've done yesterday
VOTE: Dunn

@kaede show why I'm scum or I'll be willing to lynch you too.

VOTE: Kokichi

Sorry guys been working away from home and forgot to bring the charger for my laptop with me. Heading home tomorrow to get it but a phone post for now.

Still happy for a kokichi lynch but I still think Dunn is the last scum.

If there's no result from RMOJ tomorrow he really needs to go though this has gone on for too long.

How many lynches do we reckon we have?

Still happy for a kokichi lynch but I still think Dunn is the last scum.

Weird how wilky is willing to lynch dave and kokichi but only thinks I'm scum throughout

He gave the same line when he voted dave

I actually scum read you and kokichi. My read on you was stronger but now I'm not so sure because kokichis biggest scum read was based on very little.

Dave I never denied would flip green but the Dave lynch had to happen before mylo/lylo 100%.

Tell me this Dunn what would scum me benefit from L-1ing Dave who was definitely mislynch bait whilst saying he'd flip town? Surely a scum wilky would try push a lynch elsewhere and leave Dave for that mylo/lylo.

I also don't think I'd have it in my scum range to be on a lynch wagon that I'd already declared would be town but that's harder to prove

Ank, pun and yt are all town.

That post from RMOJ is proper sketchy because it shows he has obviously been reading the thread and not posting. Thus should 100% be last day for RMOJ to get a quest through though so we shouldn't lynch there.

Lynch today should be in kokichi or Dunn and we either need to get a flip or create some discussion because this game is dying as it stands.

@Punn if you're doing a read reset can we get a reads list?

Right these last few pages are screwing with me now.

@rmoj are you now saying that the quest was for a cop to a random player then?
@pun surely you finding the evidence that maria and projectmatt did fight your pushes does help find that last scum. Maybe not for you finding the last scum but it could help rmoj (and maybe others) clear you as town.

Ugh, I think the last scum is in pun/rmoj/dunn which is 1 more player than I came into the day suspecting.

if we were going by play I'd be voting this guy right now

[wilky]

So what does that wall of quotes provide Dunn? At least show why its scummy.

Also @pun how exactly is rmoj cleared by role? I mean its confirmed that he gives some sort of quests but we still don't have a completed quest from him and the quest from yesterday should have been fulfilled. I'm starting to really suspect rmoj now, no one has been given the cop pm that was promised and he still hasn't answered my question on the quest despite me asking twice now and someone else, I forget who, quoting it aswell.

[Ankamius]

V/LA until 7/30

No guarantees I'll be coherent enough to make headway in this game, I'll have to destroy my sleep schedule the next couple of days to make my work schedule work.

[Prof Fridays]

V/LA starting tomorrow and through the 31st

I expect I should still be able to keep tabs on things, though.

[GuyInFreezer]

Sit tight. I'm going to get a backup mod.

[GuyInFreezer]

My rl situation is sorted before I could find the backup mod.

I apologize for the inconvenience.

New deadline: (expired on 2018-08-06 14:11:53)

[Ankamius]

Patpat

Where were we

[Prof Fridays]

I've decided I'd like a wilky lynch, I think. Reading ISOs without regard for role claim, his is scummiest for sure. Dunnstral would probably be my number 2 pick.

[Punreader]

Also @pun how exactly is rmoj cleared by role?

Ironically? By you, of all people.

I would like to point out that the last pun cannot both be a loud public fruit vendor AND a roleblocker/redirector/whatever causes wilky's role to fail; the last pun cannot both be an ability inventor AND a roleblocker/redirector/whatever causes wilky's role to fail. (Do I need to explain this logic to everyone, or do you already follow along as to why this is the case?)

This means that if you believe wilky to be town, you MUST believe REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE to be town as well. (I confess vice-versa is not the case; REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE can be town with wilky as pun.)

I decided I'd go into the reasoning for this in detail.

If you assume wilky isn't town, then wilky's pun and automatically REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE would thus be town.
If you assume wilky is town, then wilky is telling the truth about his role and the results failing. We thus have confirmation the last pun has a redirector/roleblocker type role of some sort causing wilky to fail.

If REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE's role is as REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE claims, then its usage is confirmed multiple times already. We know who he has targeted using this role each and every single night.
If the mod allows the pun to both action and kill, this allows him to do both.
However, I do not believe the mod would allow REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE to have the role he claims,

and

be a redirector/roleblocker/whatever's interfering with wilky, and even if I did buy that GuyInFreezer would permit this, past experienced based around his previously modded games would indicate that he would not permit the pun to use

three

action in a single night: REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE's claimed role, the redirector/roleblocker/whatever's interfering with wilky,

and

the nightkill.

Thus, if you assume wilky is town, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE must be town.

If REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE's role is a public fruit vend as his detractors claim, then its usage is

still

confirmed multiple times already. We know who he has targeted using the role each and every single night.
If the mod allows the pun to both action and kill, this allows him to do both.

However, this still would not mean he should be able to use

three

actions: the nightkill, the public fruit vend, AND the redirector/roleblocker/whatever's interfering with wilky.

Thus, as long as you assume there's only one pun alive, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is conftown.

I am not willing to assume there's two pun alive; my working assumption is only one, and thus, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE is conftown.

As an aside, I'd like to amend my prior post.
wilky should not claim his investigation target

unless

we had locked in his investigation target as the lynch. (Locking in a player for the lynch should not result in the player being instantly lynched, as we'd need to ensure Alchemist21 was on the wagon anyway.)

This still holds true.

Spoiler: Punreader doesn't die overnight, campaigns to lynch wilky

Hard to be a spoiler when I've made it quite explicit that is what I would do if I lived to see lylo.

However, do note that I mean

lylo

.

I refuse to lynch

any

player in mylo.

[Ankamius]

hm

I think I'll read through day one again

[Ankamius]

I got to the end of day 4 and it's already being reinforced that Wilky is the last scum

[Ankamius]

I think it's Wilky -> Dunnstral
RMOJ thinks it's just Punreader
Dunnstral thinks it's just Wilky
Wilky thinks it's Dunnstral/Punreader/RMOJ
Prof Fridays thinks it's Wilky/Dunnstral
Punreader thinks it's just Dunnstral

[Ankamius]

what a fucking mess

[Prof Fridays]

It's encouraging to me that Wilky and Dunnstral are accusing each other, because it seems highly likely that if it's not one, it's the other. I want to see Wilky lynched first, though.

[Ankamius]

My heart of hearts really wants to say that Wilky is the last scum, it just makes complete sense to me at this stage.

I don't think RMOJ-scum would push for Punreader the way he has, or really just about anything he's done today. It's a bizarre way to try to push the game since it wasn't particularly likely that Punreader would be lynched from it.
Prof Fridays is weirding me out a bit with the sudden sheep on me, but otherwise I don't think the slot is all that scummy. I think YT through and through was town enough to make up for Ramcius' weird play before that.
Punreader... eh, I really really think I'd be dead by now if they were scum, especially since we had two full day phases since the last scum lynch. I could see why Kaede would die over me (especially since if anyone would be able to pick up on why I'd die night five, it's probably her), but I doubt Alchemist would be dead here if Pun was scum. It's far too risky.

Dunnstral... I'm not sure. I don't think the MariaR action interaction is as strong as Punreader thinks it is, but there's not a whole lot that specifically suggests the slot is particularly scummy past whatever I was death tunneling him for on day two.
Wilky just makes sense as scum no matter how I look at it; now that I look at a bunch of stuff in day one, the interactions with MariaR look unnatural and his general play doesn't look town. I can see him being scum in the setup... kind of? I'm not strong enough in setup spec in setups this complex to really make a call on that. I think Wilky makes a lot of sense as a perpetrator for the slots that are dying this game (confirmed or confirmable PRs over direct play). When I look at the vote counts, he makes sense as scum in places that Dunnstral really doesn't, at least not as much.

[Ankamius]

idk Prof

my primary scumhunting tool has been pretty useless for a lot of the game, so I can't really comment on that.

[Ankamius]

BUT

if Wilky is scum, I'm going to be counting this as a win for doing exactly what I said I'd do on day five
if Wilky is town, I'm probably going to sit in a corner somewhere and cry

[Ankamius]

tbh I just want this game to be over before undertale comes true again and I'm solo endgamed

[Ankamius]

Either way I'm like 90% confident in my townreads

I kind of don't want to attribute anything to this since it's kind of shitty and there's every possibility this wasn't the case, but it's kind of also hard to believe that YT would position himself around the confidence in the Kokichi lynch only to replace out as scum.

[Ankamius]

At the same time... I want to try to get another 200 posts so that a lot that died on night two isn't the top poster

but that would just be silly and I don't think I have another 50 posts in me before I go insane, much less another 200