Newbie 1882 - Game Over

[Skygazer]

You talked about pressuring... Why do you pressure people at L-2 or so over people you suspect or want to sort?

When I don't have anyone I strongly suspect I don't really have anything to push people with so there'd be no pressure from a weakly reasoned single vote.

I don't feel you really elaborated on CJ so much but okay? Well at least not why you scumread him.

I hadn't elaborated on much at all at that point so that's what I had to go on.

Should you have been pushing CJ? Well yes, you said you stated your reasons for his lynch so I was digging into those...

Thanks for answering this one for me :p

How big a part of a scumlean on me are my question towards you rn sky?

tbh a bit, I feel like I'd be an easy player for scum to push given the gamestate

[xRECKONERx]

much uglyduck claim

[brassherald]

Votecount 2.01

Skygazer (1) -

Completly Trustworthy

Not Voting (7) -

UglyDuck, Chardev, Skygazer, xRECKONERx, Papa Zito, teacher, HeWhoSwims

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-08-06 20:00:00).

[teacher]

I promised some off-wagon thoughts. Well here they are.

You will recall back in 242 I talked about the most common setup being one scum on, one scum off a town wagon. Well, let's look at the two town wagons: (And yes, Im treating Duck as town, since its 90% they are.)

The last votecount before the Duck roleclaim was in post 212. The below updates that to reflect my subsequent move and Chardev's intent:

• Duck
  : Zito, Lefty, Lando, Teacher, Chardev (intent)
  
• Chardev: Sunny,
  Duck
  , Reck
  
• Not voting:
  Chronic

Now that we have flipped CeeJay (Chronic), I think it is fairly certain there is scum between HeWhoSwims (Sunny) and Reck. This inference is more reliable than the following discussion of 402, since it occurred before explicit conversation about typical wagon arrangements (that scum could take into account in PT). I will also add that I believe Chardev's only possible partner is HWS/Sunny. Reck moved there when it was a viable wagon; whereas Sunny was relatively voteparked and could have changed his vote and claimed it was based on too early material.

And here is the D1 lynchcount (Im not simply quoting Brass's 402 because his formatting is hard to colorcode):

• Ceejay
  : Zito, Sky, Teacher, HeWhoSwims, Lando
  
• Chardev: Reck
  
• Sky: Chardev,
  CeeJay
  
  
• Not voting:
  Duck

Once again we have Reck off wagon, but this time with Chardev. Less reliable, though, since scum could now be discussing wagon setup, and thus scum!HeWhoSwims could decide to join with his partner. The one thing this setup strengthens is my conclusion that Chardev most likely is not teamed with Reck

Thus, through VCA (and based off of knowing my alignment), I think I have narrowed the scum down into two pools:

• One in Reck/HeWhoSwims
  
• One in Sky/Zito/Lando/Chardev

Due to the size of these pools, Id rather lynch between Reck and HWS. But Im not voting until I can assess the JK and how it impacts my reads.

[teacher]

@Papa - now that I have explained my advice to UD, can you tell me more about why you thought it made assumptions about the scum team?

What's this referring to?

Your 275, which felt like a backhanded push at me. I explained why it was wrong in 288, and I dont believe you ever reacted to that. Do you think Im right (and no assumptions were made), or do you still think I was making assumptions?

[xRECKONERx]

man i wish we weren't revealing tons of info without a UD claim

[teacher]

I get what you’re saying but we also have a relatively limited amount of time before deadline.

[teacher]

speaking of, Prod?

[brassherald]

prodding UgkyDuck who has only just now not posted in 30 hours on day 2, this is his final prod

[teacher]

Thanks

[Completly Trustworthy]

In Newbie 1881, Skygazer said she was having a depressive episode as well, so I don't think her statements about rl troubles are lies. Right now, I think I may be scumreading someone who is just off their game. I should look more into Reckoner and Zito before tunneling on her, I"ll decide what to do next after reading their ISOs. Zito, can you give reads, you said you would do it after scum made a decision on their night-kill. I would be interested to know what you think of the players.
UNVOTE: Skygazer

[xRECKONERx]

I get what you’re saying but we also have a relatively limited amount of time before deadline.

you mean a whole week?

[teacher]

Another mechanical thing we can talk about while waiting for UD is the tracker claim strategy. Since most in here are experienced, I will raise whether it makes sense to do it without getting too much into the details of it. If you haven’t heard of it, ask and I will like an explanation.

My thinking is that it does make sense today. The lack of any claim will lock UD as town. In contrast, a claim does not guarantee anything (C2). But it can be beneficial:

• a doctor could subsequently claim and confirm that there is scum between UD and the tracker claimant, guaranteeing us to catch a scum by D3.
• The tracker would have to claim action and results, which could be interesting in its own right and against UD’s JK claim.
• As implied by the last, the claimant becomes 50/50 town or scum

THIS IS ME SPITBALLING. PLEASE LET OTHERS ASSESS THE THEORY BEFORE ACTING ON IT.

PEDIT: five days. In a town that struggles to get 10 posts a day. So yes, im in favor of talking.

[teacher]

And the first bullet above is wrong, because the doctor could be fake too. Clearly need to think about this more, but would like others to weigh in.

[Papa Zito]

@Papa - now that I have explained my advice to UD, can you tell me more about why you thought it made assumptions about the scum team?

What's this referring to?

Your 275, which felt like a backhanded push at me. I explained why it was wrong in 288, and I dont believe you ever reacted to that. Do you think Im right (and no assumptions were made), or do you still think I was making assumptions?

We had a whole conversation on this topic and I'm not sure why you want to bring it up again. The game state hasn't really changed since that time.

What prompted the exchange:

Zito-Why is posting a list of reads not beneficial?

The scum team has a decision to make during the night - they have to figure out which one of us they're going to remove from the game. The smartest play for them is to remove the player they're going to have the hardest time getting a mislynch on. If everyone posts full readlists, they can gather this info.

You argued against this because we had a Jailkeeper claim. For this to be relevant, you must be assuming the scumteam doesn't have a roleblocker. If the scumteam does have a roleblocker, then the Jailkeeper is rendered moot and can't protect anyone.

I also don't support any further claims at this time. Other than UD's target ofc.


@Lando: I said no such thing. I said it's unwise for everyone to post full reads. See above.

[Skygazer]

Hey CT I don't know what a "Newbie 1881" is but I think you meant to say I brought up my life issues in Open 733 which is a completed game and allowed to be talked about :p

[teacher]

@Pap: I brought it up again because I didn’t understand where you were coming from. I had thought your comment was based on telling Duck to act as a cop rather than a doctor even though multiple scum were left. Your clarification now makes it make total sense. (Also, on the original questions, I thought the revelation of a PR might make sharing reads more acceptable since it’s less likely scum is going for pure town rather than Pr hunting. But I accept different views there)

Also, thanks for the position on tracker claim. I’m pretty divided myself. Can you help me think through it by posting why you feel the way you do?

[teacher]

Question for Brass or board: would a replacement learn who UD JKEd N1?

[Skygazer]

Ye they would

[brassherald]

Votecount 2.02

Not Voting (8) -

UglyDuck, Chardev, Skygazer, xRECKONERx, Papa Zito, teacher, HeWhoSwims, Completly Trustworthy

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-08-06 20:00:00).

[teacher]

@Brass - can you also prod Chardev?

[brassherald]

Done, I have to be better about paying attention to this, I'm sorry.

[teacher]

No worries Mate. Thanks for everything.

[UglyDuck]

I am sorry I have been camping for the last 3 days and thought I would have some service and just had like 0%.

Assuming skum did not just randomly target the person I JKd, and/or they chose to just not shoot someone, I see no downside in revealing my night target.

I JK'd Skygazer last night.

I suppose it is possible we have a doc who proced me and skum still tried to kill me, that is the only other option I can think of.

Reading up now.

[xRECKONERx]

VOTE: Skygazer