Newbie 1882 - Game Over

[Skygazer]

Reck, why are you so ready to believe UD's claim after null reading/fence sitting on him for all of day one?

UD, why'd you JK me?

[UglyDuck]

Reck, why are you so ready to believe UD's claim after null reading/fence sitting on him for all of day one?

UD, why'd you JK me?

My goal for the night action was to prevent myself from being killed. You were likely skum from my pov when the day ended. So I chose you.
I did have another choice I was debating on, but in the end it came down to the fact that you were getting a decent amount of suspicion cast on you D1, so you were unlikely to be the NK target if they for some reason chose not to kill me, as well as if there is a doc I do not believe in any world they would of picked you over me. Essentially, you hit the middle of the Venn Diagram for me - meaning if there was no death, you are probably skum.

Again, the one exception being if we have a doc in the game. But I seriously do not think that is worth claiming. Even if I get put to the block and you are out there, don't claim. The good an unknown doc can do from that point is too great. Even if I get lynched that would still put us at a 2-1 starting Day 4 if you miss all other shots.

[Skygazer]

If you think I'm likely scum and you say you had a successful jailkeep then why aren't you voting for me at this point?

Like I know town-you would know there's a possibility of being protected last night and you acknowledge that it creates uncertainty but if you don't want doc to claim then doesn't that mean town-you should be voting for me at this point?

[teacher]

There’s no chance Skygazer was the NK target absent some really strange scum play

There is some small chance that scum did not NK for the wifom of the JK situation. I have seen only one intentional no-nk-N1 in the games I have played or read, so it is a very small chance but still possible.

There is a 33% chance we have a doctor, assuming UDs claim to be true.

That means functionally there is about a 35% chance UD didn’t prevebt the NK. Not high enough.

VOTE: Sky

[Skygazer]

Guys, PR hunting is still a thing. I just finished a Newbie where a player that was generally scumread was killed off N1 because the scum team thought he had a power.

[teacher]

Yea I just don’t see software or a reason they would PR hunt w you.

[teacher]

*softs. F’ing auto.

[Papa Zito]

Guys, PR hunting is still a thing. I just finished a Newbie where a player that was generally scumread was killed off N1 because the scum team thought he had a power.

Are you saying you breadcrumbed a power role somewhere?

[Skygazer]

No, I'm saying that the scum team can make weird kill choices sometimes.

[Papa Zito]

Guys, PR hunting is still a thing.

No, I'm saying that the scum team can make weird kill choices sometimes.

These are not the same thing.

[Skygazer]

Making kill choices that can be considered weird can be due to scum PR hunting

[Skygazer]

Zito, what do you make of Reck being so quick to believe UD today after Reck repeatedly null read him yesterday?

[Papa Zito]

Making kill choices that can be considered weird can be due to scum PR hunting

That's a really weird logical leap to make.


I don't trust Reck at all.

[HeWhoSwims]

Reck, why are you so ready to believe UD's claim after null reading/fence sitting on him for all of day one?

UD, why'd you JK me?

While I find Recks vote to be weird why ask this if it was thoroughly talked about

I think if Sky flips town that means we have a doc.. don't think scum would NK.

Sorry I'm out atm, more thoughts will come when I'm home

[Skygazer]

Zito: look at 1881 that just finished, the scum team killed off a player who was playing kind of scummy because they suspected he held a power role even without a crumb

HWS: Reck's vote on me today has hardly been discussed thoroughly

[Papa Zito]

I really don't want to get into a rant on meta here so I'll just say that a completely different scumteam playing against different players in a (probably?) different setup and different circumstances are not going to make similar decisions.

One of the

least likely

explanations for our lack of NK was that the JK blocked a kill on you. The

most likely

explanation is the JK blocked your own kill attempt.


BTW if there's a track result on UD that contradicts his claim, now's the time to speak up.

[xRECKONERx]

Reck, why are you so ready to believe UD's claim after null reading/fence sitting on him for all of day one?

Because there's a stopped kill and we have nothing else to go on.
Nobody counterclaimed the JK D1.
That means there's no cop, since a cop would immediately know that UD was lying (no two setups contain both cop/JK)
That means there's no Neapolitan, since a Neapolitan would immediately know that UD was lying (no two setups contain both nea/JK).

So there's either a doctor, a tracker, or a VT out there.
If it's a tracker or VT, then UD being JK is the only thing that could've stopped the kill.
If it's a doctor, there's a slight possibility they stopped the kill.

From my POV, there's a 67% chance that UD stopped the kill, and a 33% chance that an unknown doctor stopped the kill and just isn't claiming (which is the correct play).

I don't really see you as a big nightkill target, which means you're more likely to have been blocked than saved.
Ergo, I'm voting you.

[Skygazer]

Hmmm... I'm thinking UD and Reck maybe? But JK is still such a bold claim that I'm not willing to rule out night shenanigans.

I don't like the early weak shade thrown at Zito from Reck tbh, it seems too easy and like he's playing off of Newbie's tendency to have paranoia over ICs.

I think Zito is town here

[teacher]

Zito: look at 1881 that just finished, the scum team killed off a player who was playing kind of scummy

because they suspected he held a power role

even without a crumb

Liar liar pants on fire.

I think I might rather kill Flicker then FF. Reason being is that this will throw a lot of WIFOM into the game if people are trying to figure out why Flicker was killed.

Not PR hunting. No belief they were a PR. But I will grant you that Flicker does seem like a weird kill given my cold read of the game.

But saying a weird thing

can

happen does not make it

likely

to happen. Even if we have a doctor (1/3), there is no guarantee they stopped the NK (and in fact only a 1/6 chance they did). Scum thrive on possibilities; town should play based on probabilities.

My vote's not moving. I know there's no point in trying to convince scum that they are scum. Mostly I'm posting this for the others.

[Skygazer]

Hmm maybe I should've read that PT better

I'm not trying to convince anyone, I know I'm the lynch today, but I want to leave yall with enough to work with when I flip

[Skygazer]

Look at the fact that UD and Reck aren't really trying to gamesolve right now beyond the night actions

[Skygazer]

I'm worried because no one except for HWS and maybe Zito (and that's a stretch because I have to try to read his thoughts to figure out what he's getting at) is preparing for the possibility of a town flip. Like I figure UD is probably going to vote me when they get back? So I'll be at L-1 and I think we need to work through some things today before I'm comfy with a lynch.

[Skygazer]

I think zito is likely town here for at least playing ball with me a little bit plus other reasons.

teacher/CT have been town since yesterday

UD is ??? like that's a very dangerous claim for scum to make but based on my scumread from yesterday and his night action I don't want to discount scum-UD

Still think HWS could be scum here, like he seems to be preparing for a townflip even after all this shade he's thrown at me

Already talked about Reck

[Skygazer]

Even if you want to lynch me please at least engage in these thoughts and reads. Just humor me here.

[Papa Zito]

I need more Lando in my life.