Newbie 1882 - Game Over

[Completly Trustworthy]

UglyDuck, do you think that you stopped the nk? Sky was someone suspected during the end of day 1, trying to kill her would make little sense for the scumteam. Also, are you willing to vote for Zito?

[Completly Trustworthy]

Teacher, what about the voting patterns of HWS and Zito made you think they were a scumteam?

[brassherald]

Votecount 3.02

HeWhoSwims (1) -

Eragon

Papa Zito (1) -

Completly Trustworthy

Not Voting (4) -

teacher, Papa Zito, UglyDuck, HeWhoSwims

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 3 ends in (expired on 2018-08-14 22:00:00).

[Eragon]

think about it this way


the doc claims.
they claim who they healed N1.

both people are mechanically lock-town

? How am I lock town, and Sky flipped VT, and you still need to know who the Doc healed N1?

CT claimed doc that healed teacher N1

[HeWhoSwims]

Well what do I have to say at this point?

Time for me, zito and Eragon to cross accuse rip

[UglyDuck]

Yay I’m townclear.

You absolutely are not. Sky could of been the target... however unlikely that may be.

[UglyDuck]

think about it this way


the doc claims.
they claim who they healed N1.

both people are mechanically lock-town

? How am I lock town, and Sky flipped VT, and you still need to know who the Doc healed N1?

CT claimed doc that healed teacher N1

I was EXTREMELY drunk and obviously did not read all the way through. yeah it checks out mb.

[UglyDuck]

actually wait - if skum is Goon!Goon they could claim doc for cred.

[UglyDuck]

UglyDuck, do you think that you stopped the nk? Sky was someone suspected during the end of day 1, trying to kill her would make little sense for the scumteam. Also, are you willing to vote for Zito?

I pretty clearly elaborated on why exactly that reasoning is why I chose Sky.
IDK about Zito.


OK team here is the thing - doc would never out themselves in this situation considering I am still still alive. That is just nonsense.
Lynch me or CT. I obviously think we should vote CT.
There cannot possibly be a CC at this point because Doc would never claim here as town and Skum would never claim here if it wasn't Goon/Goon and risk said CC. Therefore, CT is part of Goon/Goon so-

VOTE: Completely Trustworthy

If there is a CC, today they are skum.

[teacher]

Duck I think you’re drunk again. Pull the vote and talk.

And I know I’m encouraging talk while not doing it. Tbh I’m waiting for papa.

feels like it’s been about 30 for him but not sure

[Papa Zito]

Hello all, catching up.

[Papa Zito]

A doctor claim and clear in mylo. How incredibly convenient.

I don't believe the claim but I don't have time to delve too deep. I'll review his iso at lunch.

[teacher]

NKA of N1 (no death) and N2(Reck) says Lando is true, and scum last night were PR hunting/avoiding townreads for fear of a docsave.

Everybody has posted and nobody has countered.

I will post a longer analysis but I’m now convinced on Papa. I still lean HWS but that can wait til I’m off mobile.

[Completly Trustworthy]

It is almost impossible that we are in setup C2 since UglyDuck is not dead. One reason that could explain why he has not been attacked yet is because the scum fear a doctor saving him. Also, in order for there not to have been a nk night one, Sky must have been attacked. However, why would the scum try to kill Sky over Duck if there was no doctor?
Of course, there is a possibility that I am scum and my team didn't kill n1 in order to claim doctor and have intentionally left UglyDuck alive to ensure a win in MyLo. However, as teacher said in 468, scum thrive in possibilites and the town should play on probabilities. What is more likely, me being the actual doctor or scum faking doctor?

[Completly Trustworthy]

Also, Teacher, I thought you had a case on Zito and HWS from VCA. I would like to see it so I can decide whether HWS or Eragon is Zito's teammate.

[Papa Zito]

Something I like to do when I see a roleclaim is go back to the beginning and see if the player's posts make sense in that context.

Duck claimed JK in 222. Here is Lando's immediate response:

Teacher, is Jailkeeper a good claim for scum to make? Do you think it's more likely Duck is telling the truth or lying?

I wouldn't expect someone with a Doctor role PM to make this post. JK/Doc is a perfectly viable setup. With the setup knowledge he has via his role PM I would expect Lando to shade more to believing the claim than not. He seems to realize this himself when he posts immediately after:

I just looked at the setups and noticed that jailkeeper is a terrible fakeclaim. Only setup c3 does not feature a cop, jailkeeper, or neapolitan, so Duck should be believed. I'll unvote while trying to figure out which wagon to join or start next.
UNVOTE: UglyDuck

In 232 Lando doubles down. One of the reasons he thinks I may be scum is voting our claimed Jailkeeper:

In32, Zito votes for UglyDuck(who I believe is really jailkeeper)

However in 530 suddenly there's room for doubt?

I want more discussion about UglyDuck because this lynch is revolving around his comments. Its not unthinkable that he is lying, given that if there are two mafia goons, claiming jailkeeper has a one third chance of being cc'd instead of a one ninth chance. I don't want to treat someone as confirmed when they may have just gotten lucky when fakeclaiming.

This flip in opinions makes no sense. Nothing in the game has happened to cause him to suddenly flipflop on this belief that Duck is a JK.

Then in his next post:

Reckoner, why do you assume a Tracker is even in the game? It feels like you're trying to get pr's to claim. I'm going to review your iso to see if you've done anything else that could be suspicious. Between being the first to vote Skygazer and this post, you're starting to become scummy in my opinion.

This doesn't jive at all with 530. If Lando is considering the setup is goon/goon, with his Doctor PM that would mean the town power has to be Doc/Tracker. Why then is he throwing shade at Reck here if Reck is talking about a Tracker possibility? That makes 0 sense with what he should know at the time.


I have one other thing I need to bring up that I noticed going through the iso but I'm out of time so it'll have to wait until tonight.

[Completly Trustworthy]

Response to Papa Zito's case:
I made 226 when I had not memorized the setups and therefore had no idea whether Ugly was likely faking or not.
229 was made when I had taken a look at the possible setups and noticed that jailkeeper was a bad fakeclaim, therefore I believed him.
After day 2 started, I believed that I had stopped the kill and knew that Sky was not guaranteed scum. Since I could not stop the lynch without claiming, which would not prove Sky's innocence as I stated in 482, I decided to ask people questions and put pressure on those I suspected of being scum. That was why i made the comment in 530 about Ugly potentially being a liar, I knew there could be a tracker-doctor setup and didn't want to give him a free pass. Even though I still believed him to be town, I wasn't going to rule out the possibility that we were in C3.
In 534, I questioned Reckoner because I thought he might be scum trying to lure out the doctor and tried to put pressure on him because I was wary of him just slipping under the radar all game because of his lazy playstyle.

[Completly Trustworthy]

Zito, why are you suspecting me instead of HWS and Eragon? As I explained in 713, there are essentially two possibilities now, setups C2 and A2.
In order for us to be in setup C2, the following must have happened:
I would have had to intentionally let the jailkeeper live two nights
I would have had to not have killed night 1(because why would sky be targeted?)
I would have had to risk Duck jailing me or my hypothetical scumbuddy, which would have probably gotten us lynched
I would have had to come up with the idea of not killing night one without teacher mentioning it(Teacher first mentioned the possibility in 453, which was on day 2)
With all this said, why are you so adamant in believing I am not the doctor while giving HWS and Eragon a free pass?

[teacher]

You’ll not convince scum that he is scum.

Tbh even after your claim I was truly worried about you because of the play style thibgs making me think you were trying to be scum mayor, and your hesitancy to lynch HWS. But the Reck kill basically ended that when I thought about what it meant about scum mentality.

[teacher]

VOTE: Papa

[brassherald]

Votecount 3.03

Papa Zito (2) -

Completly Trustworthy, teacher

HeWhoSwims (1) -

Eragon

Completly Trustworthy (1) -

Ugly Duck

Not Voting (2) -

Papa Zito, HeWhoSwims

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 3 ends in (expired on 2018-08-14 22:00:00).

[teacher]

Well we can pretty much confirm that there is at least one scum in Zito Lando and me since otherwise scum could quickhammer the win.

[teacher]

@Duck -- Youre the only person worth talking to, since you are town and the only townread to express hesitancy to lynch Papa. So Im going to be talking to you a bit over the next couple posts.

Doc would never claim here as town

You are entirely ignoring the board state. One person (Eragon) had said doc should claim if he saved non-dead-duck N1. A second person (me) – who is apparently conf!town, at least to Lando – then agreed. Only third did Lando claim.

Moreover, you are entirely ignoring the mechanics behind our advice. Everybody agrees that Skygazer was not the N1 kill target. So either (a) scum no killed (how likely is that in general?) or (b) a doctor saved. If the doctor saved outside of the dead, creating a third clear makes the game PoE 67% win. All we have to do is pick scum today, and then have you act as a cop

(though we might need some clarification from Brass on how Natural Action Resolution will play out if we get the wrong scum)

Finally let me address (a) more. At this point, that would require a scum team of Lando and me. Why would scum!me raise no-NK as option after the N1 no-flip? Have you ever seen a game where the two most talkative players were both scum? Where after my partner claimed I would still be casting pretty severe shade at him? Seriously, ask yourself what the likelihood of that team is, or what the likelihood of Lando and me NK Reck N2 after both throwing some shade at him yesterday (kill our own mislynch target??) is and then apply Occam's razor.

[Eragon]

teacher are you asking the question

@Brass

If the role blocker is still alive and is targeted by the jailkeeper, but the role blocker targets the jail keeper, whose action goes through first?

[teacher]

What about me flipping town makes teacher a weaker townread or vice versa?

Ducky, I know your suspicious of me. But you never answered this question. How was lynching Skygazer not the right play, purely mathematically?