In post 741, teacher wrote:@Papa - what's your NKA for both nights if you believe there is not a doctor? Is it really just to lay the groundwork for a fake claim? Keep in mind, in your world, Ugly Duck can jailkeep uninhibited.
@duck - when he answers, compare the likelihood of his answers to mine:
N1 scum RB'ed duck in expectation of him being docsaved, and attacked me as widely townread.
N2 scum RB'ed duck (same logic), and attacked Reck suspecting him of being doctor (and in any event unlikely to be saved).
answering as I go... but yeah, read the novel I posted. I was being dumb I agree with you as of now.
In post 549, Eragon wrote:UD are you fakeclaiming? because tbh i think you slipped non-JK in a post after your claim. i may have over-read it, but i want to hear what you say first.
I am just fine if you say you were gambitting, i have done it on multiple occasions(We shall not talk about the 13p one cop where i gambitted cop and lynched the cop D1. we SHALL NOT)
OK so I had to ask a friend to read this post (after it had been brought up 100 times because I simply was not gettting the context). There was no slip. I am JK. I did not understand that "kept or keeped" was an association with JK. In hindsight I feel dumb, but don't waste your time on it. Also - there is no way that I am fake claiming at this point and not owning it as CT has claimed Doctor. As another town has not come out and be like "uhhh wait a sec..." me being a FC at this point is just a fallacy. Followed closely by CT... who I am paranoid about but giving a pass to until either we wake up to game over or still playing.
I think lynching zito is always the play today, the Problem I see is that I have a bad feeling zito will flip goon
Why would the roleblocker perform the kill? So from my POV the team is (zito. HWS) and if you jailed HWS that means zito performed the kill, which means he is unlikely RB’er.
Also think about this way
HWS could’ve performed the kill if you were rb’d right?
So I’m not sure fully what it means, but I think lynching HWS will give us scum
But I’m more confident in zito
In post 583, Skygazer wrote:What about me flipping town makes teacher a weaker townread or vice versa?
Ducky, I know your suspicious of me. But you never answered this question. How was lynching Skygazer not the right play, purely mathematically?
no longer suspicious of you. When I said it it was based on paranoia interactions between the two of you. At this point, if you are skum, you win. I don't think I can lynch you if we don't lynch CT today... which I don't want to do.
In post 753, Eragon wrote:@uglyduck can you jailkeep me tonight to prove?
I think lynching zito is always the play today, the Problem I see is that I have a bad feeling zito will flip goon
Why would the roleblocker perform the kill? So from my POV the team is (zito. HWS) and if you jailed HWS that means zito performed the kill, which means he is unlikely RB’er.
Also think about this way
HWS could’ve performed the kill if you were rb’d right?
So I’m not sure fully what it means, but I think lynching HWS will give us scum
But I’m more confident in zito
Thanks for the long post. I’m going to do likewise tonight to respond to Lando and also make my case. But I think we have a functional lynch on Zito, but I also don’t want to vote til those posts are out and others can respond.
UglyDuck, please lynch Zito before going after Eragon. I think he is certainly scum and Eragon is possibly scum. I would be willing to vote Eragon tomorrow with enough evidence, but right now I want to ensure that a mislynch doesn't happen. I got suspicious of Eragon because of his playstyle and tinfoil theories before, but most of the time acting weird and making false statements is not a scumtell. My plan is to get Zito today and then debate over whether Eragon or HWS is his partner tomorrow. The very fact that Zito has not been hammered yet proves he is scum(at least in my eyes). With both teacher and me voting Zito, a scumteam of HWS and Eragon could have won the game by quickhammering. Since that hasn't happened yet, I am 100% sure Zito is not town and will not move my vote.
@763 - Right but since it’s only the two of you, that is not evidence you are not scum. Landos point is that the length of time we both were on Zito undercuts a Eragon-HWS team.
It will be posted tonight; just sat a comp now. (switching from law to high school teaching full time starting this week, so my life has been a bit of a S-show.)
First, a stand alone post regarding night play. Lando, if Papa flips RB you must heal duck and only duck. He will serve as a cop. I’m not going to discuss what to do if Papa flips goon, but I figure that play is obvious.
In post 768, teacher wrote:It will be posted tonight; just sat a comp now. (switching from law to high school teaching full time starting this week, so my life has been a bit of a S-show.)
So on reflection, I am really divided between Eragon and HWS, though I still lean HWS. Im going to lay out my issues with both slots chronologically and in a fair amount of detail because Id like others to react, and to provide their own thoughts (Im doing this based on ISO and VC; a lot of you have expressed thoughts on either slot along the way that Im not seeing as I do this.) Since this is really long, I will bold the points I find very telling, and leave the last three outside spoilers.
Before going into the list, one constant assumption is that Papa is the teammate – both because of the available quickhammer earlier today, and because if he is not we have already lost. So associatives with him are figuring into my calculations in a way they were not before.
Spoiler: Posts 1-100
This tips slightly against Eragon:
7: Eragon RVS against Papa. For distance? (would explain the weirdness on math)
16: Eragon somewhat weirdly interjects to answer a question not posed to him
about Papa’s slot
.
19: Papa requests an avi. Eragon didn’t have one. Distance?
23: HWS misuses misrep to throw shade at Eragon; doesn’t really answer how to scumhunt.
Papa provides second vote on Duck; HWS is first. Very unlikely for a scum pair, but Papa’s experienced enough that this is worth less than it normally would.
37: HWS interjects to semi-defend Zito in a bizarre way. Offers avi as buddying?
44: Eragon gets town points for encouraging focus on actual play
77: HWS’s vote of Chardev here feels forced, even though he has seen the scum play before. Makes me weigh 32 even less, but otherwise null.
78: This was Papa’s towniest post, and it is shading HWS for good reasons. Which weighs against a pship.
85: Eragon’s unvote here is really weird and contradictory. But the light town is not what I would expect from scum (nullish tends to be common).
I like that HWS actually posted a readslist, and it seems pretty genuine. That said, the hard defense of Chronic is something that generally comes from scum (looking for town-accurate cred); town tends to be weaker in defense.
120: Eragon’s “continuing my questioning” seems pretty off/LAMISTY
Feels like Papa is playing on his experience with Reck to push against an Eragon wagon, only to encourage the vote for distance once Reck sticks with it. Then, immediately after the vote, Papa redirects attention to the low hanging fruit.
Spoiler: Posts 201-300
This is neutral
216: Eragon’s intent. TBH, this (and the prevalence of one-on, one-off) was a large part of my preference for HWS. But Eragon was the alternative wagon, so I could understand two on even if it is sig less likely. The color coding etc. feels forced, and a lot like the former player’s meta scum game.
230: Papa going to the Chronic low-hanging fruit after the duck wagon falls apart. Protecting Eragon?
Spoiler: posts 301-400
This weighs slightly against HWS.
303: Papa semi-defends Eragon upon CeeJay’s entrance by echoing my questions.
308: Actually feels like a relatively genuine post/response to a case from Eragon.
310: Another towny post from Papa, now against Eragon. Basically the counterweight to 78.
327: Papa’s pressure of CJ here is part of what eventually leads to his mislynch. And it saves Eragon the alt wagon again.
359: HWS entrance is good – new perspective on Reck – but mostly repeating what has already been said. Certainly less detail than Eragon’s later one.
This is HWS’s post that tweaked me the most. On Zito, it seems like a lotta effort to arrive at a nullread. It talks about several towny aspects and only one scum point. Scum want to be null on their partner but avoid their partners lynch.
In the series of posts on Friday ending here, HWS provides reasons for townreading every single player other than CJ and Papa. But he never comments on Papa. Buddying board while not pointing at partner?
398: I actually found HWS presence on the second lynch (and Eragon’s absence) to point to HWS, because there has been open discussion of probabilities.
HWS again makes another post pointed at Zito, but again not mentioning a name.
418: Some more Zito shade that feels unnecessary. Distancing or prize for best hunter? Im leaning the former from how this early energy has been replaced by lurking.
419: HWS is the first Sky cheerleader, after towning them the day before. Not unreasonable, but also not a positive. The discussion of 351 in particular feels off.[/b]
474: Papa calls for more participation from one player – to cover for the absence of eragon?
Eragon scumreading two known town (including a then-present claimant) and hardtowning me (scums target) feels a bit like seeding the ground for a multi-scum mylo D3.
571: HWS shade at Eragon (IIOA) is wrong. Eragon brought a totally new perspective, just pointed the wrong way.
Eragon’s alternative reads lists is fairly towny. Papa’s placement in each; and the Reck-HWS together in town scenario – seems like mislynch prep, given VCA from D1.
635 and 637: Feels like Eragon testing the waters to find the doctor – towning those safe to town (or the partner), and shading those safe to shade, even before the claim.[
639: Eragonepeats my early points on towning Papa, but ignores that they have since blended and lurked.
650: Countervails 635; I don’t think scum!Eragon would get this far into a 1v1 and use huge letters. But that’s just a gut thing.
656: Eragon;s question about “we” having another day is WIFOM – scum would care, but wouldn’t say. Or would they? I view it as scummy, but ymmv.
660: Massclaim at mylo=PR hunting or solving. Ymmv.
674: I don’t see why scum!Eragon makes this post which increases town’s shot. At the same time, it does assume a non-duck save……
HWS’s refusal to actually engage/provide a case on Eragon is worse than Chardev’s earlier lurking, because the game state is more critical. Sure, there is WIFOM, but if youre town, better to go down swinging.
760: HWS’s italicized “for now” seems like seeding a push since the game is over if Lando is lying.
In post 771, teacher wrote:So on reflection, I am really divided between Eragon and HWS, though I still lean HWS. Im going to lay out my issues with both slots chronologically and in a fair amount of detail because Id like others to react, and to provide their own thoughts (Im doing this based on ISO and VC; a lot of you have expressed thoughts on either slot along the way that Im not seeing as I do this.) Since this is really long, I will bold the points I find very telling, and leave the last three outside spoilers.
Before going into the list, one constant assumption is that Papa is the teammate – both because of the available quickhammer earlier today, and because if he is not we have already lost. So associatives with him are figuring into my calculations in a way they were not before.
Spoiler: 501-600
This weighs slightly against HWS.
547: I like Eragon’s entrance, esp. the point about defending scummy town (See 111).
549: Eragon’s question to duck seems TAF closereading upon entry.
Eragon’sMech question feels very forced for someone who has played 10-15 games of mafia, including 2-3 here.
i havent played a game with jailkeeper and/or Roleblocker on this site, ive had Rolecop/doc/nea, and goon/doc/tracker so i dont know the ECO for jailkeeper/roleblocker
Eragon scumreading two known town (including a then-present claimant) and hardtowning me (scums target) feels a bit like seeding the ground for a multi-scum mylo D3.
as i think ive said, 1. those responses were made before looking at all flips/replacements/etc... unless i saw it while reading. so i wasnt really sure who/what/when/how/why and 2. i didnt draw any conclusions from there, it was more just me catching up, seeing the gamestate, and making some comments on the first 11 pages
Spoiler: post 601-current
This is neutral.
607: Really not sure what to make of Eragon’s tinfoil Duck-Sky theory. Its clearly wrong, and should have been at the time. But….what does that mean?
why "clearly wrong"? i mean, i wasnt expecting it to be true, hence "tinfoil" but it was a possiblity, if we were in tracker/doc. the theory was just me not liking Sky's interactions based on the JK and lynch me now it seemed like going for Conf!bias on ugly duck. but when sky flipped town it made UD p.much conf. town
619: In the post explaining the tinfoil on DUCK, Eragon says ZITO is scum (348). TMI slip?
can you elaborate on this i dont see where i called ZITO scum?
Eragon’s alternative reads lists is fairly towny. Papa’s placement in each; and the Reck-HWS together in town scenario – seems like mislynch prep, given VCA from D1.
its town-y but you think its mis-lynch prep? also, incase this clarifies, its TopTown, probably Town, and scum
635 and 637: Feels like Eragon testing the waters to find the doctor – towning those safe to town (or the partner), and shading those safe to shade, even before the claim.
wait what? i dont really see how you get that from these 2 posts, becuase the first one is me asking CT a question about what happens because sky flips town, and the second is me explaining why i am where i was at during those posts. i dont see how either of these are trying to find the doctor, or shading?
639: Eragonepeats my early points on towning Papa, but ignores that they have since blended and lurked.
i just repeated my points on what gave me the town lean at that point of time for my preliminary reads, i didnt even know you had points for Town!Zito or anything else?
650: Countervails 635; I don’t think scum!Eragon would get this far into a 1v1 and use huge letters. But that’s just a gut thing.
656: Eragon;s question about “we” having another day is WIFOM – scum would care, but wouldn’t say. Or would they? I view it as scummy, but ymmv.
whats ymmv? and what is WIFOM-y about it? the reason i posted that was because i was going to catch-up during the night, but left it until the last night, and it started early so i had gotton hardly anything done
660: Massclaim at mylo=PR hunting or solving. Ymmv.
again what is ymmv?
674: I don’t see why scum!Eragon makes this post which increases town’s shot. At the same time, it does assume a non-duck save……
and then i realized that after you posted and i re-worded it.
