Mini Theme 2022: Trapped! [Gameover]

[Prof Fridays]

And there may or may not be concrete reason for it. I will say my bias tends to favor craziness=town, i.e. my hard-town-read on Pine for a while now.

[GuiltyLion]

I see no reason for him as scum to choose the right number and not just give us the 1/9th chance of winning.

VOTE: Pine

This is terrible.

There’s no WIFOM there. The odds are super stacked against us - I don’t recall how to do mathematical combinations, but even without the presence of bad actors, our odds of success are <40%. With a bad guess down, our odds are down to 1/9 (I think). I’m not willing to reduce those odds further by letting someone I don’t trust (in this case all of you) sink our chances further. Case in point:

Choose: 1

The WIFOM of you selecting correctly the 2nd one hurts

also

I think it's weird that Enigma thinks there's WIFOM in Pine getting the second number right, yet calls out Kokichi for voting Pine after Pine guessed the second number, yet also doesn't acknowledge/respond at all to Kokichi reversing on Pine and saying he's likely town (in 1134)

I think if Enigma were genuinely trying to sort he'd have a more coherent thought process here. instead it's like he's randomly shading/commenting on a couple things - Kokichi scumreading Pine for choosing 2nd number is bad, there's WIFOM in Pine getting the number right (so what's Enigma's current read on Pine...?) and ignoring additional developments (Kokichi's stance on Pine after the number was revealed to be right) that seem directly relevant.

[GuiltyLion]

actually you know what I'm totally fine with a {ofhrz, Enigma, Chickadee} lynchpool, I'm satisfied with townreads on everyone else for now. Until/unless I see a townflip inside of those three I doubt I'm going to have a massive shake-up/reassessment.

I have some thoughts about Chickadee that I'll expand on later this evening, don't have time to do it justice right now

[GuiltyLion]

I would seriously consider voting Pine tonight.

okay so first off, can you explain why? Why does scum!Pine guess twice, intentionally throwing the first one and then getting the second one right? I feel like the path of least resistance (sitting back and letting town fuck it up) is far more likely scumplay here. So why is it more likely a scheme from scum!Pine than town!Pine guessing twice?

Catching up there was a post where I was starting to get suspicious of irrelephant11.

Spoiler: This one, just so it's in my ISO

Gosh I was going to put so much sorting work in today

Did you know two right/wrong answers ends the day???

I'm disregarding it for now, because day didn't end, but upon catching up, this struck me as knowing the day would end. It came off as very fake. It feels like there's confidence behind this statement.

this push I really can't grok. If the day had ended, maybe Irrelephant's confidence would have been worth a side-eye. But the day didn't end, so this whole thing is invalid isn't it? I don't understand why a town!Chickadee would go ahead and post this anyway, while acknowledging that she's disregarding it. The thought process seems forced and I get vibes of "work for the sake of work" from this analysis, especially because she hasn't really pushed on much else this game so it can't be explained away as passing commentary inside of a full ISO. like you weren't sharing many reads because you didn't feel that you had good ones to share, but then you do feel compelled to share this despite it being invalidated when the day continued? and you're not really full-on scumreading Irrelephant to go with this either.

like if Irrelephant didn't know whether the day would end or not, he's town. If he's scum then he knew the day

wouldn't

end. So arguing that he's more suspicious because he knew the day

would

end just doesn't make any sense and I'm having a hard time seeing how town-Chickadee would genuinely think that way. Help me out here.

[Kokichi Oma]

Not sure if anything changed, really. I might move Kokichi to null-scum perhaps. I was more saying that Kokichi's being hell-bent on lynching me isn't necessarily scum-indicative per se. If ofhrz flips scum, I would be much more suspicious of him, however. But, really, not much has changed with respect to Kokichi, maybe just my thinking about him.

Who said I was hell bent? I just agreed with Orfz said. Also this is a 180 considering you just said you thought I was town then now you wanna move me to null-scum.

[Kokichi Oma]

I see no reason for him as scum to choose the right number and not just give us the 1/9th chance of winning.

VOTE: Pine

This is terrible.

There’s no WIFOM there. The odds are super stacked against us - I don’t recall how to do mathematical combinations, but even without the presence of bad actors, our odds of success are <40%. With a bad guess down, our odds are down to 1/9 (I think). I’m not willing to reduce those odds further by letting someone I don’t trust (in this case all of you) sink our chances further. Case in point:

Choose: 1

The WIFOM of you selecting correctly the 2nd one hurts

also

I think it's weird that Enigma thinks there's WIFOM in Pine getting the second number right, yet calls out Kokichi for voting Pine after Pine guessed the second number, yet also doesn't acknowledge/respond at all to Kokichi reversing on Pine and saying he's likely town (in 1134)

I think if Enigma were genuinely trying to sort he'd have a more coherent thought process here. instead it's like he's randomly shading/commenting on a couple things - Kokichi scumreading Pine for choosing 2nd number is bad, there's WIFOM in Pine getting the number right (so what's Enigma's current read on Pine...?) and ignoring additional developments (Kokichi's stance on Pine after the number was revealed to be right) that seem directly relevant.

good post

[Kokichi Oma]

ofhrz, Enigma, Prof is my pool

[GuiltyLion]

oh yeah and I forgot to respond to this

Are Feysal and Pine strong enough townreads now for you to put them in that block? It didn't seem like that would be possible fypov at the start of the game day, and I especially don't remember much evolution from you regarding Pine. What do you think of his case on you, especially the point about you scumreading all but a few players throughout the game?

Feysal and Pine are both strong enough townreads where I do not want to consider lynching them whatsoever for today. I would begin to revisit them in the world where I see a few more surprising townflips and it becomes clear that my game-state view is comically off - I would not yet bet the game on them being town - but they've definitely moved the needle from "no reason to feel that they are more likely town than starting probability" to "I have several posts/reasons to think this player is more likely town than scum".

The Pine read kinda evolved awkwardly because I came into the day wanting to lynch him, but then I got the sense while I was locking horns with him that he

believed

in what he was saying and he didn't

know

that it was bullshit. I thought his case on me was objectively pretty terrible - most of it is written in the sense where he assumes that I am scum and then uses that to write a narrative to fit my play to the agenda of scum!Lion. but this style of reasoning doesn't necessarily mean that he's scum as town can get tunneled on their scumreads. I started having doubts and being careful to push on him while not explicitly saying that I actually thought he was scum:

I can't take you seriously unless you give any evidence whatsoever that you're reading the game and playing with good intentions, I'm seeing absolutely none so far and as a result I'm also having a hard time seeing myself being able to vote anyone else at this point.

Fair enough, you choose not to explain where I "distorted" what you said today. I guess we'll just leave it up to other players to assess who is being genuine here

as a bit of a bait to see how/whether people would jump in on one side or the other, but then when you posted 903 I changed my mind about continuing an argument with him and decided there probably wasn't much utility in doing so and I should just start looking for scum elsewhere.

I think I've at-some-point-scumread maybe half the people in this game. The scumreads I've pushed for lynch consideration are NK15, Chickadee, Enigma, ofrhz, Pine. even Pine was never really a "yeah this guy is scum" type of read so much as an OMGUS for calling for my lynch and misrepping me by accusing me of misrepping him, if you read my ISO I didn't really swing on him until my 811. I guess that's a fair amount of players but I don't think it's an unreasonable amount in a 13p game - there are also players I've consistently townread (Kokichi - who Pine also thought I might be buddied with as a result, yourself, Feysal), and some players I've kinda felt weren't solid townreads but never pushed for lynch.

How did you come up with these lists?

those were my POE most likely to be scum and my most solid townreads respectively? I didn't think those names would be much of a surprise given the rest of my ISO.

[ofrhz]

Why do you feel this way?

Likely my biggest townread now based on meta

Who were you referring to here

[ofrhz]

Hmm, I have to reconsider my reads some. I also find it interesting how much is read into my not

yet

saying what convinced me of Pine's GL case. I did say I would explain, and I don't intend to do so as I am no longer confident in it lmao.

Explaining after the fact would still be helpful in getting others to understand what your thought process was in the past. Right now it doesn’t make sense, since if you were initially convinced by a case, you could’ve just listed a few reasons you found it compelling

I find Enigma to be slight town, as I like where his head seems to be at (he's made points that jive with my thoughts/understanding of things). Irrelephant seems assuredly town with his recent posts. Chickadee seems pretty squarely in the null category, as I can imagine her thoughts coming from a town or scum perspective. I don't understand Feysal's being in most people's town block - he's a slight scum read for me, as is Kokichi, with ofhrz as lean scum (and my lynch target of choice today, I think). NSG, Mylo and GL can have townslots for the time being. Pine still hard town read for me.

Why the scum lean on feysal

[Prof Fridays]

Not sure if anything changed, really. I might move Kokichi to null-scum perhaps. I was more saying that Kokichi's being hell-bent on lynching me isn't necessarily scum-indicative per se. If ofhrz flips scum, I would be much more suspicious of him, however. But, really, not much has changed with respect to Kokichi, maybe just my thinking about him.

Who said I was hell bent? I just agreed with Orfz said. Also this is a 180 considering you just said you thought I was town then now you wanna move me to null-scum.

You'll see I had you slight scum previously, so this is an improvement. Also, I waffle & doubt myself - new posts happen and my reads change. Such is the nature of this game, no? At least it is with me.

[Prof Fridays]

ofhrz, Enigma, Prof is my pool

I'll also point out that while you agree with ofhrz, he's in your scum pool? So are he and I trying to SvS for show?

[ofrhz]

Thoughts?
Am I reading too much into this?
I definitely feel like it's odd that enigma is so chickadee-focused this game day, especially since most other players have literally been talking around her and most players are focused on other lynches.
What's happening here?

I think part of this has to do with enigma questioning the associative read between him and chickadee that was never fully explained by GL. I also found that read slightly odd, and I don’t think enigma questioning it was scummy

I’m not really seeing the SvS interaction in this

Although I do think chickadee is more likely to be scum based on her townreading enigma in 982 and wanting to lynch in lurkers and including feysal but not enigma in that list, even though their contributions were arguably similar

[ofrhz]

I see no reason for him as scum to choose the right number and not just give us the 1/9th chance of winning.

(About pine) I agree with this

[ofrhz]

I do have some reservations with the scumreads on Enigma in that I do recall his town meta as being annoyingly thorough, verging on beating a dead horse at times. so some of the things he does here, such as pushing someone who is widely townread, doesn’t seem really out of character for him.

Irrelephant I agree Enigma/Chickadee interactions are weird but I think most of the scumminess is on Enigma's side

I still don't feel like he's given me like a holistic assessment of who he thinks is town and who he thinks is scum, he's just trying to chop up townreads on a variety of players

I think this is the only valid point. in my limited experience with town!enigma, he does dish out reads a little more readily than he has done here.

I would lynch Fridays or chickadee

[Myloninja13]

I'm back and WOAH at Pine double choosing woah. But like, looking too far down there can drown oneself in WIFOM so I won't lol.

Fine with {Chick, ofrhz, Fridays} lynches as well here btw.

[Chickadee]

I would seriously consider voting Pine tonight.

okay so first off, can you explain why? Why does scum!Pine guess twice, intentionally throwing the first one and then getting the second one right? I feel like the path of least resistance (sitting back and letting town fuck it up) is far more likely scumplay here. So why is it more likely a scheme from scum!Pine than town!Pine guessing twice?

Catching up there was a post where I was starting to get suspicious of irrelephant11.

Spoiler: This one, just so it's in my ISO

Gosh I was going to put so much sorting work in today

Did you know two right/wrong answers ends the day???

I'm disregarding it for now, because day didn't end, but upon catching up, this struck me as knowing the day would end. It came off as very fake. It feels like there's confidence behind this statement.

this push I really can't grok. If the day had ended, maybe Irrelephant's confidence would have been worth a side-eye. But the day didn't end, so this whole thing is invalid isn't it? I don't understand why a town!Chickadee would go ahead and post this anyway, while acknowledging that she's disregarding it. The thought process seems forced and I get vibes of "work for the sake of work" from this analysis, especially because she hasn't really pushed on much else this game so it can't be explained away as passing commentary inside of a full ISO. like you weren't sharing many reads because you didn't feel that you had good ones to share, but then you do feel compelled to share this despite it being invalidated when the day continued? and you're not really full-on scumreading Irrelephant to go with this either.

like if Irrelephant didn't know whether the day would end or not, he's town. If he's scum then he knew the day

wouldn't

end. So arguing that he's more suspicious because he knew the day

would

end just doesn't make any sense and I'm having a hard time seeing how town-Chickadee would genuinely think that way. Help me out here.

I could think of a multitude of reasons for scum to pick the correct number the second time. WIFOM. Picking once (and wrong) when no one seemed to want to pick a number could have been grounds for a lynch. Picking wrong twice could have been grounds for a lynch. Scum theater for a town read. The list could go on.


And irrelephant11's post is along the same lines. It struck me as scum trying to be worried town. I quoted it just so it's in my ISO (as I said before) because it pinged me, and I didn't want to lose track of it. It's more a form of my own personal notes rather than anything that I needed input on. During my catch up after the double choosing, that one post stuck out in my mind over everything else.

And you can't fault me here for not having reads to share earlier and now sharing the things I'm finding relevant. You can't have it both ways. Either let me lurk, or let me play, but do not chastise me for both.

[Chickadee]

This specifically is what I'm referring to with my last point.

like you weren't sharing many reads because you didn't feel that you had good ones to share, but then you do feel compelled to share this despite it being invalidated when the day continued?

[GuiltyLion]

I could think of a multitude of reasons for scum to pick the correct number the second time. WIFOM. Picking once (and wrong) when no one seemed to want to pick a number could have been grounds for a lynch. Picking wrong twice could have been grounds for a lynch. Scum theater for a town read. The list could go on.

Yes there are reasons scum

could

do it, but why are those more likely than reasons town would do it? Like I can write a similar list about why town!Pine would do it, so I need to see why you think the scum explanation is more likely, not that there exists a scum explanation.

Also worth noting that several other players (Kokichi, ofrhz, myself) have come to the exact opposite conclusion as you on this point.

And irrelephant11's post is along the same lines. It struck me as scum trying to be worried town. I quoted it just so it's in my ISO (as I said before) because it pinged me, and I didn't want to lose track of it. It's more a form of my own personal notes rather than anything that I needed input on. During my catch up after the double choosing, that one post stuck out in my mind over everything else.

And you can't fault me here for not having reads to share earlier and now sharing the things I'm finding relevant. You can't have it both ways. Either let me lurk, or let me play, but do not chastise me for both.

but you're saying he's pretending to be worried town because he assumed the day would end, and then the day didn't end, and then you said you were disregarding it for now. So are you now saying Irrelephant was faking being confident that the day would end despite knowing that it wouldn't?

I'm not faulting you for sharing, I'm faulting you for sharing something that I find confusing and hard to understand, something that you are simultaneously walking back as you are sharing it. I also still don't understand what your ultimate point is with this read - would you lynch Irrelephant because of this?

[Kokichi Oma]

Why do you feel this way?

Likely my biggest townread now based on meta

Who were you referring to here

NSG

[Kokichi Oma]

ofhrz, Enigma, Prof is my pool

I'll also point out that while you agree with ofhrz, he's in your scum pool? So are he and I trying to SvS for show?

No, but I think one of you is scum. I dont team read. Just who I think is scummy.

[Kokichi Oma]

I think I might SR Enigma most now. I dont know

[Kokichi Oma]

I think everyone should post who they would vote if day ended today

[Chickadee]

I could think of a multitude of reasons for scum to pick the correct number the second time. WIFOM. Picking once (and wrong) when no one seemed to want to pick a number could have been grounds for a lynch. Picking wrong twice could have been grounds for a lynch. Scum theater for a town read. The list could go on.

Yes there are reasons scum

could

do it, but why are those more likely than reasons town would do it? Like I can write a similar list about why town!Pine would do it, so I need to see why you think the scum explanation is more likely, not that there exists a scum explanation.

Also worth noting that several other players (Kokichi, ofrhz, myself) have come to the exact opposite conclusion as you on this point.

And irrelephant11's post is along the same lines. It struck me as scum trying to be worried town. I quoted it just so it's in my ISO (as I said before) because it pinged me, and I didn't want to lose track of it. It's more a form of my own personal notes rather than anything that I needed input on. During my catch up after the double choosing, that one post stuck out in my mind over everything else.

And you can't fault me here for not having reads to share earlier and now sharing the things I'm finding relevant. You can't have it both ways. Either let me lurk, or let me play, but do not chastise me for both.

but you're saying he's pretending to be worried town because he assumed the day would end, and then the day didn't end, and then you said you were disregarding it for now. So are you now saying Irrelephant was faking being confident that the day would end despite knowing that it wouldn't?

I'm not faulting you for sharing, I'm faulting you for sharing something that I find confusing and hard to understand, something that you are simultaneously walking back as you are sharing it. I also still don't understand what your ultimate point is with this read - would you lynch Irrelephant because of this?

I have to head out the door to work here in a minute, so I'm not gonna get to everything.

I don't need you to understand the irrelephant11 thing. I wouldn't lynch him over this no. I don't even really scum read him. But that post stuck out in my mind and I couldn't stop thinking about it, so for ease of finding it later if I thought relevant, I wanted it in my ISO. It's not really something I intended others to need to interact with. It's for my own personal notes, via ISO. It's easier for me to look through my own ISO and know what was going on when, than it is for me to look through someone else ISO to dig for things I want to find again. And other people have said it was an interesting thing to point out. I won't dig for who at the moment because I need to leave though.


I'll try to get to the Pine thing later, but honestly I don't have a whole lot t say on it, because it's WIFOM-y.

[northsidegal]

actually you know what I'm totally fine with a {ofhrz, Enigma, Chickadee} lynchpool, I'm satisfied with townreads on everyone else for now. Until/unless I see a townflip inside of those three I doubt I'm going to have a massive shake-up/reassessment.

I have some thoughts about Chickadee that I'll expand on later this evening, don't have time to do it justice right now

i exactly agree