Micro 814: Geriatric Trio (Mafia Victory!!!)

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
Locked
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #283 (isolation #0) » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:07 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

Hey all, glad to be here. Trying to squeeze in this post before leaving to work, so I'll probably keep things shorter then I would like.

After reading the entire thread, I've got 3 relatively strong townreads:
  1. Hito. His railing against apathy in #261 feels unlikely to come from scum. There's absolutely no need for Hito scum to rock the boat like he's doing there.
  2. kmd. His willingness to change his mind regarding Oath felt pretty town to me. His stance regarding Not_Mafia seems to indicate someone who's trying to actually think through how likely someone is to be scum. His defense of NM is not strong enough to claim town points on a town flip, and isn't strong enough to save an NM partner, so seems unlikely to come from scum.
  3. Not_Mafia. I agree that his playstyle isn't very helpful for town. However, from what I've seen of NM's meta, this playstyle could easily come from both town and scum from him. What makes me put NM firmly in the town category is the way other players respond to him. A playstyle like his is an ideal target for scum, as attacking this playstyle allows mafia to be seen doing things while effectively contributing nothing. NM is getting lazily attacked by almost everyone. The only exception is kmd, and even he seems meh-ish regarding that lynch. There's noone who could reasonably be a scum partner trying to defend NM from a lynch. There's noone who's attack on NM is solid enough to claim the town points that would make bussing worth it. Then it seems far more likely that NM is town and both mafia are happy with his lynch.
UNVOTE: Not_Mafia

I would be happy to lynch any of the other 3. I don't have time to do a thorough analysis on each of them at the moment, but I like the composition of the Nonny wagon, and there isn't that much time till deadline. Therefore:

VOTE: Nonny
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #285 (isolation #1) » Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:21 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

Not solely, but it's part of the reason. Going fully into my reasons would have required doing the analysis I mentioned, that I didn't have time for as I had to hurry to work.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #286 (isolation #2) » Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:25 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

Hito, what were you trying to achieve with your "why not self hammer?" comment in #106?

It seems that that comment was an important cause for Oath self voting, and by extension of the Oath mislynch.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #289 (isolation #3) » Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:48 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

Ok, so I had promised to do some analysis on the three players I don't have a town read on.

Musicbox has a habit of not adding much actual content. Take a look at her day 1 play:
  • The top suspect day 1 was Oath. There was the L-1 wagon, Oath's VT claim, self vote, and eventually the deadline lynch. So what does musicbox have to say on Oath? There's post #118, where she asks Oath not to self vote but doesn't give an opinion on Oath's alignment. There's post 146, where upon being explicitly asked her opinion of Oath, she gives an answer that doesn't go strongly either way, but kind of implies that she doesn't really believe Oath's selfvoting is a scumgambit. And that's it really.
  • So, who does she express suspicion of during day 1? She mentions Komala in post #118, saying that she'll explain more later that evening or the next morning. Where does she come back to that? In post #213, well into day 2, where she remembers that she never followed up on her promise to explain why she was scumreading Komala... And then proceeds not to explain why she was scumreading Komala.
  • Let's look at her other accusation in post #118, Nonny. She debates with Nonny quite a bit during day 1, but never makes an actual accusation against her. The only thing Musicbox has to say in #118 is gut. Which allows her to be happily alone on her wagon, with no chance whatsoever of anyone joining her there.
  • Finally, there's Red/NM. The slot that she's voting at the end of the day. What does she have to say about them? If she has to choose one of the wagons she'll choose that one (#118) because RC was scummier then invisibility (#148). And that's all the reasoning I can find here.
Now admittedly, day 2 is slightly better. She actually gives solid reasoning in #205 on her vote for Nonny. Her reasoning in #236 is meager though. Not_Mafia has his reputation for a reason. If his reputation is that he doesn't explain himself, then that's the case both when he's town and when he's scum. So why assume it comes from scum in this game?
Overall, I can easily see her playstyle coming from scum. Give opinions, but make sure they're not going to cause any waves. That way, when the others have to decide who to vote for, they'll simply forget you'll exist.

Invisibility has the same problem, but worse. There are only three posts he made during day 1 that actually give us some insight in his thoughts on the other players. There's post #86, where he explains he's wishywashy on Cheesy. There's #123, which actually gives some reasoning for why he feels Oath's town. And finally, there's #133. That last post tells us his opinions on everyone, but the reasoning is weak enough that he can still change his opinion in whatever direction he chooses.
Basically, Invisibility gives me the feeling that he isn't really doing anything much. I can't even make an overview for him as I did for musicbox, as most of his posts are low content oneliners. Which makes the "n_m not doing anything is kinda scummy" in #234 quite hypocritical. If he believes it's good for scum to not do anything, then his not doing anything could be quite intentional.

However, it's Nonny's voting record that to me is worse then the active lurking of either music box or Invisibility. The major alternative to an Oath lynch was invisibility. Nonny pressure voted him in #121. This brought invisibility at L-2 (magna, kmd and Nonny) whereas Oath was only at L-3 (Komala, who was inactive, and Oath's self vote). However, exactly one day later, Nonny unvotes. Her reasoning? She'll have limited access around deadline, and isn't confident in her vote to leave it there. So what does she do? In #161, still during her V/LA around deadline, she votes Oath, bringing the momentum back in that direction. And her reasoning? It's the classic scum copout. She doesn't really believe Oath is scummy, but feels Oath is playing badly, and doesn't want to risk the WIFOM.
On day 2, she's doing exactly the same. Her main points against Not_Mafia (as listed in #274) are his lack of content and anti-town playstyle.
Basically, it seems she isn't really scumhunting, but instead is attacking players who are playing poorly. Which is exactly what scum want to do when they want to push mislynches.
It's made worse by #149, which basically feels like she's feeling out a Not_Mafia hammer while avoiding all responsibility for it.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #290 (isolation #4) » Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:50 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

In post 288, Music Box wrote:Pressed submit instead of preview there.

Meant to add:

@ Michel: If you want more time to catch up before the Day ends I can wait till tomorrow before I hammer.
I'm all caught up now. I can imagine others might want some time to respond to me, but you don't need to wait for me.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #298 (isolation #5) » Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:21 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

In post 293, nonny wrote:Not sure how I didn’t register prior that musicboc wasn’t voting me. Pings me as weird. Since she was seemingly focused on me. Whole interaction feels off.
VOTE: musicbox/vote]

Hard to scumhunt, Michel, when everyone is seemingly tip toeing with nothing standing out as overtly scummy. I’ve voiced my frustration in the lack of content numerous times while asking questions and trying to generate content. My v/la wasn’t as limited as I had expected, not going to defend my oath vote, I voiced all I need to about it day 1.

I have nothing to claim. I’m as vanilla as can be.
Interesting...

My accusation was that you were attacking based on poor play of your targets, rather then scummy play of your targets.

You seem to have misunderstood my accusation, latching on to the "not scumhunting at all" part and treating it as though I was accusing you of active lurking.

Given that, I would have expected you to defend yourself by pointing to your attacks on Oath and NM (the ones I felt were attacking over poor play) as examples of your scumhunting.

Instead, you come up with an explanation for why you aren't scumhunting. Which kind of implies that you yourself don't consider your attacks on Oath and NM scumhunting.

What's up with that?

---
I'll have to retract my townread of hito, I fear. Not_Mafia is a very bad lynch. Hito's pushing it through without even considering that my arguments might come from a town perspective.

Calling a Hito-Nonny pairing.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #299 (isolation #6) » Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:05 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

Not much point for me in responding to Hito's accusations right now, as there's no more opportunity to convince anyone regarding today's lynch. I'll defend myself tomorrow if I'm still alive by then.

But in case I'm not alive tomorrow, I would once again like to emphasize that, assuming a NM townflip, hito-nonny is by far the most likely scumpairing.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #315 (isolation #7) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:31 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

This nightkill is worrying. Hito was heavily tunneling me yesterday, and he expressed suspicion of me even on an NM townflip. Given that he's town, the obvious thing for scum to do would have been to keep both me and him alive, and ride our suspicions of each other to a mislynch.

From the point of view of the other players, the most obvious explanation for why that didn't happen would be that I'm scum who took out someone who was suspicious of me. Which means that I should be under heavy suspicion here. Instead I'm greeted with "Michel's the closest thing to a townread I've got" from kmd, which is extremely disconcerting given the situation.

Still, it seems better to me to respond to the accusations hito made. Now that I'm still alive after the night is over, you deserve an explanation from me, both on why I didn't respond immediately, and on why hito was mistaken in his accusations. Everything that follows has been written during the night, before I knew that Hito was nightkilled.

---

The reason I didn't respond to Hito's accusations yesterday, is that I felt it was extremely likely that NM would flip green, and that given an NM greenflip, there was a pretty good chance I would be nightkilled. If I was nightkilled, I wanted the other players to have a crystal clear idea of where my suspicions were. I feared that writing a response to his accusations would only muddle the waters in case of a nightkill.

The first point Hito makes is the following:
hitogoroshi, [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=10393989#p10393989]post 294[/url] wrote:I mean...if he's scum, he only has a single scumbuddy. It's totally possible that he has a scumbuddy who thinks he needs to be bussed as an inevitability, or is just too lazy to defend, or too scared of being anchored to him. The game is too small to use wagonflow as a general argument, you have to cough up specific names.
The odd thing is, though, that hito came to the exact same conclusion I did:
hitogoroshi, [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=10395456#p10395456]post 304[/url] wrote:going through the playerlist and wow if not_mafia is scum michel is far and away the most sensible buddy. Hard to think of who hito's ghost wants in a lylo where not_mafia redflips but then michel greenflips.[...]
I knew I was town, so I knew that NM could only be scum if someone else was his buddy. However, as I mentioned in the post hito originally quoted, there was noone who I could see being his buddy. Could I have explained why each player individually didn't fit the mold of a buddy? Sure, but that would have taken time I didn't have when I was writing my original post. So I decided to make the general statement that there was noone I could see as a scumbuddy, and expand if requested.
hitogoroshi, [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=10393989#p10393989]post 294[/url] wrote:I don't like how much Michel's post seems to be focused on on-decking the next two lynches, instead of actually sussing out the alignments. Like he says "Now admittedly, day two is better..." re: Music Box like he's disappointed by it (even though it's not his vote!). But y'know, FOR SURE at least one of those three names is town, so shouldn't you be interested in puzzling that out. But the post seems to be solely focused on digging up dirt, not more sorting. Seems like he took the remit of "this is my town read box, this is my scum read box, and this is why" really strictly and artificially.
The thing you must realize is that I didn't go into my analysis of my 3 scumreads blind. That post wasn't written as "let's see who I suspect out of these 3 players", it was written as "this is why I suspect these 3 players." After I'd read the entire thread twice, I had 3 townreads, and 3 scumreads. I explained my townreads first, as knowing those would explain who I was willing to vote yesterday. But that meant I still needed to explain my scumreads. I would still need to figure out which of my initial scumreads was wrong, but the place to do so would be in the discussion that followed my initial post, and even in subsequent days. What I did not want to do was presenting my initial suspicions weaker then they actually were.

Regarding post #295, I believe that in order to scumhunt, you analyse behaviour as "this player is doing A, is that player more likely to do so as scum or as town?". In the case of NM, I felt his lack of reasoning for his suspicions was NAI. As far as I could see from his meta, NM always writes short posts with little reasoning, regardless of alignment. By contrast, based on his attacks against NM, Invisibility feels that it's beneficial for scum to give little explanation for their opinions. That opinion makes it more likely for scum invis to give little reasoning then for town invis to do so. Which means that the active lurking by invis becomes a scumtell.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #316 (isolation #8) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:36 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

Also, given that we're in Lylo now, I think it's a good idea to hold a massclaim regarding the presence of a friendly neighbour. We really could use the information. If everyone agrees, I'm willing to start such a massclaim.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #319 (isolation #9) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:03 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

The main reason I was willing to go first was that I felt I should be under suspicion.

A massclaim should include an answer to the question whether you received a message from a friendly neighbour. Invisibility?

Popcorn generally seems best to me.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #321 (isolation #10) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:45 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

VT, no message here.

Music Box?
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #326 (isolation #11) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:24 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

So the Hito kill wasn't the result of a rolecop then. And mafia doesn't want to fakeclaim.

I'll have to think further on the implications.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #327 (isolation #12) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:38 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

How likely do you all think it is that the term "hammerkeeper" in post #173 was interpreted as a crumb by the scumteam? Was there anything else that could have given away that hito was jailkeeper? "Hammerkeeper" is the only thing I can find, and there are a couple of scumpairings that I feel would only make the hito kill if they knew he was a powerrole.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #330 (isolation #13) » Tue Aug 21, 2018 7:59 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

The more I think about it, the more I'm inclined to rule out Nonny/invis scumteam.

The hito nightkill and lack of attack on me imply that scum was happy enough with the way things were going to believe that they didn't need hito's or my mislynch. With Nonny being under a lot of pressure yesterday, and invis being the default second suspect a Nonny/invis team could use the extra mislynch opportunity. For them, kmd would have been an ideal nightkill. Kmd was under no suspicion whatsoever, and was suspicious of Nonny. Given the game situation, they seem highly unlikely to kill hito.

I believe a Nonny/invis team would only kill hito over kmd if they were quite sure he was a jailkeeper. But "hammerkeeper" doesn't really seem a strong enough crumb to give that convidence. Besides, the crumb wasn't noticed day 1, when it would have been fresh in scums memory, or we would have seen hito die night 1. That implies that scum would only have noticed it by putting in the effort of actively looking for crumbs. Given what I've skimmed in his mafia PT's, invisibility doesn't seem the player to put in that effort. I don't think Nonny has any mafia topics in the completed game forums, so I can't check her, but it doesn't seem that likely.

Based on Open 670 I could see musicbox put in the effort to pick up on "hammerkeeper" as a crumb.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #334 (isolation #14) » Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:53 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

My initial thought upon seeing the hito nightkill was "so I'm supposed to be the mislynch for today". As I mentioned in #315, the nightkill does make me look suspicious. So of course I'm preemptively defending myself.

The second thing I'm trying to do is figure out who is likely scum based on that nightkill, as certain scumpairings seem far more likely to make that nightkill then others. In trying to figure this out, I'm working from the knowledge that I'm town. You don't have that knowledge, so I completely agree that you should take into account the possibility that Hito was right regarding me.

That being said, please note that I didn't say that scum would only kill hito due to thinking him a powerrole. I said that certain scumpairings would only kill hito due to thinking him a powerrole.

To understand the difference, imagine for a moment that Nonny and invisibility are scum. In that situation, Nonny just barely escaped being lynched yesterday, mainly because hito came to her rescue. A nonny-invis pairing was named by several players as the most likely scumcombination. Given all that, Nonny+invis would love to keep hito alive. Hito was heavily tunneling me, and I had expressed suspicion of a Nonny-hito pairing. If Nonny+invis kill kmd, and keep both hito and me alive, they have the opportunity to leverage that tension into a mislynch. By killing hito instead, that mislynch potential evaporates, making lynches of Nonny and invis far more probable.

Now imagine for a moment that kmd and musicbox are scum. They would have been coasting through the game, never coming under serious suspicion. It doesn't matter much who they nightkill, as town is likely to mislynch anyway. However, if they want to keep both hito and me alive to make use of the mislynch tension, they would have to nightkill invisibility, a player who was generally suspected by the rest of the town. So the kmd+musicbox pairing might as well nightkill hito, a stronger player who is quite capable of changing his mind. They have the nonny + invisibility suspicions they can leverage for a mislynch, and the nightkill is going to put me in a worse light as well.

This leads me to the conclusion that a nonny+invis pairing would only nightkill hito if they found a breadcrumb, whereas a kmd+musicbox pairing would kill hito regardless of powerrole read. Eventually, I hope to be able to give such an estimate for all six pairings that are possible from my POV. Unfortunately, most of them aren't as obvious as the nonny+invis or kmd+musicbox pairings.
Music Box wrote:Can I have a response to my please.
I was looking for comments regarding the Oath wagon, the claim, the self vote, and her general lynch viability. When you discuss Oath prior to #118, it seemed to me that you were discussing your reasons for unvoting in #36. Both #79 and #117 are replies to Nonny who asked you about #36. Given that you were explaining why you had certain feelings in the past (specifically the end of AVS, long before any of the relevant stuff happened), whereas I was looking for explanations for your feelings at that point in time, those posts simply didn't register as relevant.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #335 (isolation #15) » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:14 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

@Ari: sorry for going so long without a post. I know the rules say to post once every 24 hours, but with literally nothing to respond to, I had hoped posting once every RL day would be good enough.

I have already explained why I feel a Nonny-invis pairing is highly unlikely given the Hito kill. In this post, I'll look at the other possible pairings in some more depth, as well as look at some individual players.

I think a Nonny-musicbox pairing is quite unlikely as well. That pairing has the same problem of Nonny being the default suspect, and has the kmd kill as an option to keep the tension between me and hito alive. Besides, I don't think musicbox would have been as willing to switch to Nonny at the end of day 2 if they're scumpartners. However, as I mentioned before, I could see musicbox spotting "hammerkeeper" by hito and interpret it as a crumb, so I'm not willing to completely rule out this possibility.

If the scumpartnership is musicbox-invisibility, their strategy throughout the game has been to lie low and let town implode on itself. Killing kmd, and leaving hito and me alive to fight it out, would work in that strategy. However, so would killing the only player who throughout day 2 had been trying to pull the town together. With Nonny being both my and kmd's top suspect yesterday, removing the hito-michel tension isn't that much of a problem. And there's the possibility of musicbox spotting the crumb. This pairing could easily make the hito kill.

Any pairing that has kmd in it and wants to keep both Hito and me alive is forced to make a poor nightkill. kmd-musicbox is never going to kill invisibility, as he was under general suspicion and not really doing much. A kmd-invisibility pair could make the case of nightkilling musicbox, as she wasn't under that much suspicion, but it's still not a great kill for them. kmd-nonny has the choice between the two, and would need the mislynch potential to protect Nonny, so out of the three pairings containing kmd, this pairing is the least likely to kill hito. Both musicbox and invisibility are poor nightkills even for them, though, so they still would end up killing Hito more often then not.

What has me wavering on kmd is that I still townread him, though. His posts do look like he's trying to figure the game out, and trying to contribute, with the main problem being severe lack of time. So despite the fact that the Hito kill would make the most sense coming from him, I'm reluctant to vote him.

I also don't want to vote Nonny today. The hito kill + lack of fakeclaim imply that scum is happy with the way things were going. Given that Nonny was the most likely lynch at that point, that implies mafia being happy with a Nonny lynch, i.e. Nonny being town. Add that both nonny-invis and nonny-musicbox pairings are unlikely, and Nonny becomes a bad lynch.

Given the choice between invisibility and musicbox, I'll likely vote music box, mostly because compared to invisibility, she's the more likely partner of either Nonny or kmd.

So consider this post intent to vote music box. If you believe there are very good reasons for me not to do so, please convince me.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #344 (isolation #16) » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:29 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

In post 337, Music Box wrote:
In post 334, MichelSableheart wrote:My initial thought upon seeing the hito nightkill was "so I'm supposed to be the mislynch for today". As I mentioned in , the nightkill does make me look suspicious. So of course I'm preemptively defending myself.
If that was the case I would've expected you to wait and see who tried to blame the nk on you, rather than go straight into defending yourself, but you didn't.
The problem with that strategy is that attacking me wouldn't have been a scumtell.

The other townies don't know I'm pro-town, and the Hito kill does implicate me. I would expect pro-town players to also question me, so waiting to see who attacks me wouldn't really help.
In post 337, Music Box wrote:
In post 334, MichelSableheart wrote:I was looking for comments regarding the Oath wagon, the claim, the self vote, and her general lynch viability. When you discuss Oath prior to #118, it seemed to me that you were discussing your reasons for unvoting in #36. Both #79 and #117 are replies to Nonny who asked you about #36. Given that you were explaining why you had certain feelings in the past (specifically the end of AVS, long before any of the relevant stuff happened), whereas I was looking for explanations for your feelings at that point in time, those posts simply didn't register as relevant.
But they were relevant, as they showed my thoughts on Oath, so I don't see why you're disregarding them?
At the risk of repeating myself: the point is that they didn't show your thoughts on Oath, at least not your thoughts on Oath at the time of making those posts. There is a world of difference between "based on gut, I liked the responses Oath gave 80 posts ago" and "I currently believe Oath to be [town/scum] based on [reasons]". Especially when in those 80 posts a lot has happened that could influence your opinion on Oath.

Also, why the use of present tense in your question? I'm explaining why I didn't notice those posts when I made #289. I only became aware of them as opinions on Oath when you pointed them out to me in #303.
Hi! I was hoping for a bit more from you.

@Nonny: for you, hammering NM was the obvious play regardless of alignment, so that didn't really seem worth commenting on for me. It was mostly Hito's L-1 which drew my attention yesterday.
Haven't got much to say on your analysis post; I mostly agree with your conclusions.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #350 (isolation #17) » Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:27 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

@kmd: I can definitely see Invis as scum, but I really don't see an invis-Nonny team ending up at a Hito nightkill when they could have nightkilled you.

Especially because, given a hito nightkill, I highly doubt an invis-Nonny team would wait to see who gets voted first, as that is far too likely to end in the answer of "Nonny".

In fact, I think this pairing is unlikely enough that it's the main reason my PoE ends up on musicbox rather then invisibility.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #352 (isolation #18) » Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:17 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

kmd wrote:I guess I'm just not seeing why it would make sense for any scum team to keep Hito alive. He was pretty obvtown.
I guess it's more obvious from my point of view, as I know I'm town. Hito was tunneling my slot, to the extend that the mere fact that I defended NM upon replacing in was enough to convince him to vote NM, allowing Nonny the hammer.

That vote, and the way it pushed through a lynch on my townread while protecting someone who I felt was far more likely scum, made me extremely suspicious of a hito-Nonny scumpairing.

Given those suspicions, leaving both me and Hito alive is extremely likely to end in either hito voting me or me voting hito, giving mafia the last mislynch they need.
kmd wrote:Interesting. You started the day thinking you were going to be voted. What changed? Or was I misunderstand you entrance today?
I expected that the mafia would use the suspicion on me that resulted from the Hito nightkill to push through a mislynch, yes.

However, to do that, they would need the town to analyse the Hito nightkill. Now let's be honest here, activity in this town hasn't been great. If a Nonny-invis team wait to see who gets voted first, they would have to gamble that either you or musicbox is going to do the analysis that would end up with a vote for me. However, it would be just as likely that the two of you simply don't do that analysis, and instead vote for the player you were suspecting yesterday: Nonny.

Basically, a Nonny-invis team would need to steer the conversation in my direction, not wait passively.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #358 (isolation #19) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 1:18 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

wait maybe if michel was scum he would have thought it would have little impact inside the wall
(btw just because i think someone is scummy doesnt mean that they cant be right about anything)
Invisibility, with quotes like these it feels that you start on the assumption I'm scum, and then look how the evidence can be made to match that assuption, rather than that you're looking at the evidence and seeing where it takes you.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #365 (isolation #20) » Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:01 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

kmd wrote:As for an Invisibility/nonny team needing your Lynch today...why? Music Box is probably an easier Lynch for them to secure. I'm not seeing how you are the only mislynch that team would have.

And as far as that team needing to steer conversation... I think it's obvious regardless of alignment that at least Invisibility was never going to do that.
My reasoning is the following:
  • Nonny was yesterday's top suspect after NM.
  • Therefore, unless something special happened, nonny would likely end up being the lynch
  • A nonny-invis pairing would like to prevent Nonny getting lynched.
  • One way to do that would be to leave both Hito and me alive, and hope our suspicions of each other would result in a mislynch.
  • Another way to do that would be to steer the conversation towards me based on hito's suspicion of me yesterday.
  • A third way would be to steer the conversation towards someone else.
  • However, nonny and invis were doing none of these things, nor were they doing anything else to prevent a Nonny lynch.
  • This makes it unlikely that nonny and invis are scum together
kmd wrote:Can you sell me on Invisibility/music box without using the NK?
That's difficult. Both of them have been rather lurky, making it almost impossible to point at something they did as being scummy. Also,

I feel I've waited long enough for responses. Deadline is coming closer, and I want some time to be able to react to how the wagons fall.

VOTE: Musicbox
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #366 (isolation #21) » Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:04 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

The also below the second quote is a remnant of my consideration of mentioning that I could easily see a musicbox-kmd pairing as well. In the end, I decided against it.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #369 (isolation #22) » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:35 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

In post 368, Kmd4390 wrote:Michel are you ignoring my points or you just disagree?
I don't think nonny was today's default Lynch
(
and neither did you at day start
) and I don't think nonny or invisibility were ever going to steer any conversations today regardless of their alignment.
I'm trying to explain that I disagree with both the bold and the italics, whereas the unbolded is a large part of why I would expect a nonny-invis pair to keep Hito alive.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #378 (isolation #23) » Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:42 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

In post 372, Music Box wrote:[...] I don't like the way he is constructing cases based on what he says people might do, rather than what they are actually doing.
Wait what? How could you possibly get that out of my writing?

The closest thing that's actually in my posts is my
dismissal
of a Nonny-invis pairing because I would expect them to behave differently than they did if they're scum.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #379 (isolation #24) » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:03 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

I don't want to unduly pressure you all, but deadline is in 30 hours, so it might be time to consider voting.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #387 (isolation #25) » Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:52 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

Posting to note that I don't see a reason to quickhammer.

I'm mostly doubting between a musicbox - kmd and a musicbox-invis team. It's about 50-50 between those two. Voting invisibility here would mean gambling on one of those two. I can, but would feel much surer about a musicbox lynch.

I'll be on twice more before deadline.
In post 384, Music Box wrote:It was mainly in , and , and part of .
We know that mafia killed Hito, so wondering who would and who wouldn't make that kill seems natural. In most of the posts you pointed out, I'm concluding that a certain pairing is unlikely to make that kill because they had a far better alternative. Isn't that looking at what mafia actually did?
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #390 (isolation #26) » Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:06 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

Well, I guess I don't have to worry then about achieving a lynch before deadline. I really wasn't happy with how long everyone waited to vote. I'd announced my intent to vote a week ago, placed it well before deadline, yet I felt like I was the one who was left scrambling to reach a lynch with 10 hours to go.

Congrats to mafia, I guess?
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #398 (isolation #27) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 5:34 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

Sorry team, I did what I could, but appearantly I can't convince town not to lynch town, nor can I convince town to lynch mafia.

I enjoyed playing this game, though.

Nonny, what made you change your mind? You were planning to join me on musicbox, but decided to vote invis at the last moment...

Also, please don't hold off voting that long. Even if you had joined me on musicbox when you voted, I don't know if we would have had the time to convince invisibility.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #399 (isolation #28) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 5:37 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

Congrats kmd, and well played. I didn't suspect you at all before the Hito kill.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #404 (isolation #29) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:58 pm

Post by MichelSableheart »

This game was perhaps a bit slower then I would have liked, but I really appreciate having the time to do some in depth analysis of what's going on. If you look at my posts at the beginning of the last day, I really took the time reading, thinking, reading again, thinking again, to figure out what was going on. The fact that there weren't that many new posts to read gave me the time to do so.
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #410 (isolation #30) » Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:04 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

Looking forward to reading the private topics for this game. @Ari: Will you link them in here, or should we keep an eye out for them in the relevant forum?
There is no 'a' in Michel.
User avatar
MichelSableheart
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MichelSableheart
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1773
Joined: May 31, 2007
Location: Netherlands

Post Post #412 (isolation #31) » Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:05 am

Post by MichelSableheart »

thank you!
There is no 'a' in Michel.
Locked

Return to “Mayfair Club [Micro Games]”