Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

[Fink]

VOTE: Doubting Thomas
Page 1 Mime claim more likely to come from Mafia than Mime I think.

Also, hi Thor. Any particular reason for sesq over the others?

[Fink]

Btw, this really bad reasoning. Mafia don't want to be lynched, but they don't want to be shot by the Vig either. Acting scummy so as not to get lynched = painting a mark on your back to be shot.

ALSO, let's say he's Mafia and acted this way and didn't get shot. He sure IS going to get lynched once the Mimes have been shot down (unless he's counting on them to be both lynched and then they win and he still loses).

So that's a hard townread from you then?

[Fink]

No! That's a NOOB MIME read. He wants to get lynched, but he made it so obvious he won't be lynched. Mafia may also do it IF we didn't have a Vig. Having a Town Vig rules out the Mafia possibility even for a noob. Got it?

So newb mafia know we have a vig but newb mime don't. Got it.

[Fink]

This game is going too slow there's hardly anything for me to comment on. Are we waiting for replacements?

You could respond to this:

No! That's a NOOB MIME read. He wants to get lynched, but he made it so obvious he won't be lynched. Mafia may also do it IF we didn't have a Vig. Having a Town Vig rules out the Mafia possibility even for a noob. Got it?

So newb mafia know we have a vig but newb mime don't. Got it.

Anyone who read the setup at all would know we have a vig. Is there a reason to expect mafia read the setup but mimes don't?

My argument the other way is that trying to look a bit mime-ish on the first post would seem like a clever move if your role is mafia because of that initial "but what if they are a mime!?!" wifom response, which could help later, while Mimes would be worried about getting that same response. A bit of "but what if MIME" read from early game is good for Mafia avoiding lynches, bad for Mimes wanting to get lynched. It's a small thing, but people go back and look at the first posts of the game all the time.

And really, how likely do you think it is that your directing all the PRs based on the first page of the game is going to actually decide what they do? Do you think that's going to outweigh things like the counterwagon to a mislynch wagon or partner interactions with a lynched scum?

[Fink]

Fink I don't think 117 is wrong per se but can you tell me why you're riffing on this and why you think it's a productive argument to be having

Because I clearly don't agree with Almost50's thought process, and I think it's productive to try to figure out

why

, Town-I-disagree-with or scum, and admittedly I think I won't have much clue about that until later but getting some of that thought process out now seems helpful toward getting a read on him.

And because he's hard mime-reading me for my page 1 read and that's therefore the most interesting thing happening in the game so far, as far as I'm concerned.

Do you think I'm clogging up the thread about this? Do you want my opinion on something else in particular?

[Fink]

Wait I thought fink/innocent were buddies?

I'm everybody's buddy.

[Fink]

To people who have played with Almost50 before, especially Thor,
Are posts like this, particularly the tone of them pretty standard coming from him? Or is this more confrontational than you'd expect?

@Fink: Mimes aim to get LYNCHED. If they could accomplish that on D1 they don't need to worry about the Vig. "Act scummy --> Get lynched" is what a noob Mime would think. I do not expect a NOOB to go about the consequences beyond that point. Planning for multiple moves hardly makes someone a NOOB.

Mafia do NOT want to get lynched. A noob Mafioso would NOT try to act scummy in the first place. If they do (in order to avoid being lynched) then they are NOT a noob either. NOOB NOOB NOOB. A Newbie who has not yet developed the sense to plan ahead for multiple steps and will only go for the next move is what I'm talking about.

[Fink]

Hey, I've had a really crazy week, had a ton of time up until around when the game started then got super busy. I'm not getting replaced, I will get to this tonight.

[Fink]

can the three voters restate the case on him because I really don't think he's done anything scummy and I'd like a fresh take on why he's the best place for your vote

Sorry, I still kind of want to reread everything and haven't, but my vote is based on those first posts. I know it's not a lot to go on, but that's why it's there.

Basically, I think that Mimes are the key thing about this game. Honestly, who didn't want to be a Mime? No way Mimeteam comes in and does something that immediately screams Mime, but those first silly posts seem like a bit of a "please lynch me" Jester thing, and I think that's more likely to come from Mafia than Town or Mime. Mime opens their PM and comes up with complicated ways to get lynched, Mafia opens up their PM with Mimes on the brain, the idea occurs "what if I do something really Jestery at the start of Day 1?" Odds of actually getting lynched aren't that high, but I think it throws a bunch of "But what if they're a MIME??!?!" wifom in there that scum might hope to use to get out of a lynch.

The merits of this strategy are beside the point, my thought is that it's a thought process Mafia are more likely to have.

I disagree with Almost50s mimeread and AGGRESSIVE NOOB ASSUMPTIONS, obviously. Still torn on my read there by the way, I was thinking Mime but if Thor thinks that's normal tone then that's really a nothing read.

[Fink]

Sesq: I just read GL's ISO, it doesn't look like it's all fluff to me. post 126 jumps out at me as not being fluff and that was before your case.

Also, what did you mean by this?

please vote for guiltylion too, as i think it would help us all to see the results of that.

[Fink]

the same Q goes to thor though - why vote there when there is a decent case (at least for this early) that he is the mime? It feels like you just want to jump on any wagon at all....

Did you buy into Almost50s Mime reasoning at the time?
Do you still agree with it?
What do you think of my argument?
Did you think Thor agreed with Almost50?

[Fink]

FA_Q2: also, do you disagree with Nero that GL's vote was "kinda "

[Fink]

Sesq:

Also, what did you mean by this?

please vote for guiltylion too, as i think it would help us all to see the results of that.

[Fink]

Thoughts on this? I'm terrible at running the math on these scenarios so if there's someone that can give the statistics on lynch v no lynch here I'd appreciate it, because just off the top of my head there's a lot of logic with how town played the game last time.

Haven't redone the math, but we should be aware that it's different, we have 2 more VTs in this setup than that one, so odds of hitting any given thing are lower.

It's certainly still much easier to vig 1 of 2 mimes than 1 of 1, but the chances of lynching a Mime on Day 1 are lower.

[Fink]

Quick and dirty that turned out to not be that quick but is probably pretty dirty

Spoiler: math

Assume we No Lynch:
Vig shoots randomly in
7 VTs
1 Watcher
2 Mafia
2 Mimes

Vig has a 2/12 = 1/6 chance to hit a Mime = 17%
Mafia shoots randomly in
7 VTs
2 PRs
2 Mimes

2/11 = 18%

Chance of one or the other hitting Mime
2/11 + 1/6 - (2/11*1/6)
Roughly
18 + 17 - 3 = ~32%

Assuming we lynch VT (54%)
Vig Shoots
6 VTs
1 Watcher
2 Mafia
2 Mimes
2/11 = 18%

Mafia shoots
6 VTs
2 PRs
2 Mimes

2/10 = 20%
20 + 18 - 4 = ~34%

Assuming we lynch Mafia (15%)
Vig shoots
7 VT
1 Watcher
1 Mafia
2 Mimes
2/11
Mafia shoots
7 VT
2 PR
2 Mimes
2/11

18 + 18 - 3 = 33%

Assuming we lynch Mime (15%)
Vig Shoots
7 VTs
1 Watcher
2 Mafia
1 Mime
1/11 = 9%

Mafia shoots
1/10 = 10%
10 + 9 - 1 = ~18%

And like 16% we make a PR claim and do one of the other things, so really it’s very roughly
Lynch VT 62%
Lynch Mime 19%
Linch Mafia 19%

Chance of Shooting Mime and Lynching Mime 19% * 18% = 3%
Chance of Shooting Mime and Lynching Mafia 19% * 33% = 6%
Chance of Shooting Mime and Lynching VT 62% * 34% = 21%

~30% overall with random lynch vs. ~32% with the No Lynch

Given that scum will be PR hunting and Mimes will be PR/scumhunting for their RB, we should definitely lynch. (Plus the fact that lynches generate more interactions than no lynches.)

[Fink]

And for the record, that's the first setup spec I believe I've done.

[Fink]

Lynch Mime -> chance to vig/NK other Mime = 18%
Lynch Town/Mafia -> chance to vig/NK other Mime = 33%

It’s worth trying to avoid lynching Mimes.

[Fink]

Umm...Vig shoots a Mime claim. Always.

Lynching a Mime claim is idiotic XD

You're missing my whole argument, please keep reading

No way Mimeteam comes in and does something that immediately screams Mime,

but those first silly posts seem like a bit of a "please lynch me" Jester thing, and I think that's more likely to come from Mafia than Town or Mime.

Mime opens their PM and comes up with complicated ways to get lynched, Mafia opens up their PM with Mimes on the brain, the idea occurs "what if I do something really Jestery at the start of Day 1?" Odds of actually getting lynched aren't that high

I just don't think those posts were all that "please lynch me", like it's literally just RVS song lyric posting. this feels like a reach and you haven't done anything beyond this vote

This, on the other hand, feels like deliberately missing the point, especially given that GL and I already had an exchange about this, he asked me to repeat my reasoning, and here is complaining that I'm not talking about other things. And as I try to get into the game and things pick up, GL pushes harder on this "Fink hasn't done anything" narrative, in a significantly harder way than Thor has, without placing a vote.

VOTE: GuiltyLion

And Thor, it was never an RVS vote.

[Fink]

@thor your asking what my vote does?

Shows who I think is scum

I get the impression that eragon had this long elaborate response typed up, then got concerned about how it would look, deleted it, and came up with this.

Disregard this

What were you thinking when you said it and why aren't you thinking it anymore?

[Fink]

I would also rather lynch Sesq than A50 at this point, and I also think Sesq is reasonably likely to be a Mime. Really don't like either wagon.

I'll be around off and on all day, definitely around for deadline.

[Fink]

Jingle and Nero both lean Mafia to me

What's your reasoning for this?

[Fink]

Okay, let's try this
VOTE: Lane

[Fink]

So, my vote now decides which of the MIMES is the counter wagon to mine!

For all practical purposes it's all the same to me since I believe them both to be Mimes, so I'll wait for one more vote on either to decide where my vote should be.

Your reads are equally strong? I thought your mimeread on Lane was just based on interactions with Sesq. If that's true, that ought to be a weaker read since we don't have a Sesq flip.

[Fink]

If Lane is mimebuddies with sesq, why flail so hard? Sesq would be more likely to get lynched if the Lane wagon goes nowhere.

Either
Lane is mime but not with Sesq
Lane is mafia and wants that sweet sweet mime wine (in front of us)

I feel even better about this vote now.

[Fink]

I had them linked together as early as the top of page 2
...
So, I think I had a "semi-conviction" that the two are of the same alignment way before I decided Sesq was a Mime because of the way she fought (or rather didn't) against her wagon. They're like "interchangeable". If X is Mime then Y is Mime where X is either and Y is the other in no particular preference.

None of this addresses what I'm saying though.

1. You have a mimeread on Sesq.
2. You have a read on Lane that Lane is the same alignment as Sesq.

Are those correct?

Because if so, that should make your mimeread on Lane at least a bit less strong than your mimeread on Sesq. Assuming your reads are not 100% accurate (and no one's are), you have 2 reads that could potentially be wrong, even if you're confident on them, to get to MimeLane. You have one read to get to MimeSesq.

This should relevant to your decisionmaking.

PPE: well I guess this wasn't needed

[Fink]

As long as we're sharing dumb ideas, I wasted a bunch of time looking at cat gifs earlier thinking that might be a more productive way to get Eragon on the cool kids' wagon than actual reasoning.

Spoiler: cats

[Fink]

@thor your asking what my vote does?

Shows who I think is scum

I get the impression that eragon had this long elaborate response typed up, then got concerned about how it would look, deleted it, and came up with this.

Disregard this

What were you thinking when you said it and why aren't you thinking it anymore?

I was thinking what I said when I said it, but doing an iso and seeing the whole picture, I really don't think eragon is scum

Eragon: Yeah I meant I still had that in an open tab from before you voted.

Lane: All these recent posts, the quoting a million things Thor says and still saying basically nothing while walling the shit out of the thread with quote boxes.

[Fink]

I say, posting a bunch of nested quotes that have nothing to do with that post.

Regarding the quote above, Lane was scumreading Eragon because he interpreted that post in the way he did because he was scumreading Eragon, but when he stopped scumreading Eragon he didn't think his reason to scumread Eragon was valid.

It's circular and weird and I haven't been sure how to explain my issue with it but I've been meaning to get to it.

[Fink]

I don't like hypoclaiming, I like having a regular day, faux-voting, and then all voting No Lynch when we don't have a lot else to talk about. This also lets the Watcher crumb things like mime results either on later days, or if they have 2 results on A50.

[Fink]

{Vote:} GL

Aside from the thing from yesterday, the fact that he thinks he'd be an NK target seems like a standard assumption that's easy to have as mafia. I think if he were as good as people seem to imply and he'd been trying to solve the game, he'd be thinking about things like A50 potentially being Vig and Thor being a more likely Mime candidate.

"I figured I might die" seems like a default (possibly accurate) attitude that didn't seem at all likely from the gamestate going into night with 1 of the Mimes being lyched and A50's behavior. Scum having standard opinions without gamesolving.

[Fink]

Vote Count

No Lynch - 2 - Jingle, GuiltyLion

Not Voting - Fink, Thor665, Eragon, FA_Q2, Nero Cain, RockyHorror, innocentvillager

Not Voting - Aristophanes

Deadline is Wednesday, September 12 at 5:30pm EST.

Aristophanes is not voting even harder than the rest of us

[Fink]

uh, if I were scum you'd realize I'd have no need at all to post the fact that I thought I might die?

By that logic scum have no need to post anything.

[Fink]

sorry im pretty behind but basically i have no reads since sesq and a50 died and they were the ones i had reads on

Other people have reads, what do you think of them?

[Fink]

So does anyone have any thoughts at all on what I'm saying about GL?

I'm saying that his feeling that he might die seems like an easy thing to say as an excuse for not having more to say and a feeling he might generally have but didn't make sense if he was actually paying attention to how yesterday went. Does anyone think GL was the likely kill?

GL responds that he has no reason to say that as scum, which is just the most weak-ass response ever. And scum would never say they thought they'd be the NK? Really? Does anyone think that's a good response?

Eragon seemed to agree that this was weird but is more interested in saying how good GL's reads are.

[Fink]

The whole point of having a "fake" day is so that we get people interacting with each other and talking about what cases are good and bad, for the benefit of the vig and for the benefit of later days. If we're not going to do that we may as well just end the day and not burn everyone out, but I really think we should get 2 wagons going so if the vig isn't one of the arrogant hyper-confident-in-their-reads players, they could choose between them. We don't need to fake lynch someone, but getting to that stage where we have the two wagons and no one wants to budge seems very useful. Sitting around seeing who can get prodded first less so.

[Fink]

It’s not like we have to differentiate Mime from Mafia here by the way, not-town is good enough because we’re not actually lynching.

“Vote” Count

FA_Q2 (2?):

Nero, GL?

GuiltyLion (1):

Fink

Not even “vote”ing (7):

Jingle, Thor, Eragon, FA_Q2, Rocky, IV, Aristo
9 Alive

Thor for scummie (2):

Thor, Aristo

[Fink]

Eh. It’s a weak scumread reason, more indicative of not paying any attention to the thread than anything else imo. The response is dumb (why avoid claiming NAI tells as scum) but I don’t think it’s so much scummy as lazy here. And lazy has pretty much been established.

It's almost like we're back to that point right after RVS, weak reads are the strongest reads anyone has on anyone. But if it isn't an open-and-shut case no one wants to talk about it.

[Fink]

Actually, Jingle, I feel like you're dismissing that response a bit too easily. It's not not claiming an NAI tell, it's responding with "why would I say that as scum?" to something that any player not paying attention might very well say.

I think that's a bit stronger than you're making out.

[Fink]

Not saying it's rock solid, but I think it's scummier than just lazy.

[Fink]

A big part of the problem is that when like 4 players have reads there isn't going to be a compelling case on anyone. And NKs will be less informative.

Pretty sure everyone agrees with No Lynch today. But people not voting No Lynch also aren't voting to end the day earlier. I'm happy to end the day if no one wants to actually talk.

[Fink]

So people who need to get shot sooner rather than later:
Nero, Aristo, Thor, Jingle, IV, Fink, FA_Q2, Eragon
...
It does seem likely that there is scum in this list

[Fink]

*dual-ISOing Fink and FA_Q2*

404 interactions not found

Talk about empty shade

[Fink]

You've done none of the legwork to show why me being lazy = me being scum.

This is also a nice misrep of what I'm saying (echoing my disagreement with Jingle so it kind of reinforces) while putting the onus on me to prove something I'm not trying to prove.

Aside from the thing from yesterday, the fact that he thinks he'd be an NK target seems like a standard assumption that's easy to have as mafia.

uh, if I were scum you'd realize I'd have no need at all to post the fact that I thought I might die?

GL responds that he has no reason to say that as scum, which is just the most weak-ass response ever. And scum would never say they thought they'd be the NK? Really? Does anyone think that's a good response?

I'm not saying that scum would never say that. That's a misrep

So scum would have no need to say that, therefore GL must be town, but he's not saying scum would never say that, I'm misrepping him.

Lazy mafia, not lazy town.

Sadly, we can't accuse GL of being mafia unless we're willing to commit to pre-flip associations of his partner, because no one in this game could

possibly

be partners with GL...

[Fink]

So people who need to get shot sooner rather than later:
Nero, Aristo, Thor, Jingle, IV, Fink, FA_Q2, Eragon
...
It does seem likely that there is scum in this list

Is this post meant to be some kind of joke? This is most of the player list. Why are you on it? Why are Rocky and GL the only ones not on it?

[Fink]

Jingle. Are you just not reading longer posts?

[Fink]

“Vote” Count

FA_Q2 (2?)

: Nero, GL?

GuiltyLion (2)

: Fink, FA_Q2

Rocky (2?)

: Thor, Aristo?

Thor (1)

: Rocky

Not even “vote”ing (3)

: Jingle, Eragon, IV

10 Alive, counted wrong last time

[Fink]

By the way, Thor,

I didn't really want to say till he had a chance to respond to me calling it laughable - that he doubled down on it reads as scummy to me.

Basically his case is 'Thor is scum more than other people voting Lane because Thor tried to get me onto Lane"
Which is all well and good as a theory case - except, as I pointed out in my defense, i also tried to get him onto DT.
He then counters it by quoting me doing *exactly what I said I did* but then handwaves it by pointing out that in debating him I used Lane as my example as opposed to DT as my example which...somehow means really I was clever Lane Mime partner, mwah-haha...?
It's really bad and shows blindness/not actually caring.
I think he's probably some value of scum for that play.

Why is this Rocky laziness scummier than GL laziness? I think you're saying that it's manipulative and so more of a scum mindset, right? But why is GL not pinging you as manipulative?

Like you put GL on the level of IV and Eragon and I don't get it.

[Fink]

Well I feel like these last couple of real-life days were actually productive, but sure, no point contributing to you guys' suffering or certain players' desire to stretch the game without talking.

VOTE: No Lynch

[Fink]

Eragon, have you formed any reads yet?

[Fink]

We should seriously make sure everyone has time to post at least once before NLing

[Fink]

Could we get a prod on Rocky please?

RockyHorror has been prodded.

[Fink]

welp...

I hope he wouldn't do that with an informative role.

shall we just go raging into that good night?

This is some next level PR fishing right here.

[Fink]

Need to do a big reread in light of the massive influx of information, but sadly I'm off to a wedding this weekend so I won't be getting to it.

V/LA until Monday

<- Noted

Also, we shouldn't be no-lynching into 1v1v1, anyone votes Mime -> Mime self-votes.

[Fink]

Well I got back from the wedding and immediately lost internet all day, it's back on now but I'm exhausted. Real life is a bitch lately. Anyway, should have plenty of time to get to this tomorrow, presumably.

I think it's nuts to lynch anyone but Thor today, or to No Lynch. We need to lynch Thor eventually, and it's as safe as No Lynching. And we should please wait for me to catch up and actually say something today before ending it.

[Fink]

Finally getting to this, sorry. Life has been hectic and honestly haven't been looking forward to this, but need to get on it.

Unvote

I fail to see him as mafia-aligned right now.

That being said, the possibility of lynching a mime actually makes me kind of scared to lynch. How viable would no lynch be as an option?

I feel like this basically clears the Aristo slot from being Mime. Like I could see a mime hypothetically saying this but as the only post that wasn't an RVS vote before getting replaced out?

[Fink]

Why are we no lynching wgen it is likely we can avoid a mime hit? We only increase the chances of it each day.

VOTE: Rocky

Aristo's lack of understanding of what's going on theory-wise seems genuine to me. I could see faking it, in which case good job, but I can't really see him sharing a PT with Thor.

The soft defense of Thor, for example in 668, could make him mafia but that could come from town making an effort to be useful for a change too, and I just don't see Aristo as buddies with Thor. Fairly strong town.

[Fink]

I think Jingle is more likely to be Mime than Mafia, still torn on Mime vs VT

Thor, my wagon has just as much steam as yours, a loud mouthed asshole who actually cares about pushing it through, and managed to destroy two vanity wagons. Can I interest you in the sweet smell of actually progressing the game?

I like the idea of progressing the game, but the A50 run is pretty weak.
Do you actually townread Nero and/or Lane right now? If so - why?

I could find my way onto a Lane wagon or an Eragon wagon at this point, but neither had any steam when I subbed in and we're kinda at deadline. If you build it I will come though.

I do think Nero is likely town, although it's a weak read at best. 1st, his jump to A50 reads as a genuine scumread. 2nd, his reads progression about a50 matches up with mine fairly nicely. 3rd, the posts in which he does content (particularly 299) feel like they're actually going somewhere. Regardless, I think that my A50 wagon is clearly superior to your Nero wagon.

443 is a really tempting post. REALLY tempting.

UNVOTE:

I need to think when I'm a little less drunk, but I may actually be in favor of forcing the no lynch over either of these lynches at the moment.

This is part of what convinced me to give the Lane wagon fire drill a chance, Mime points for Jingle here. I mean, I probably deserve Mimepoints too, but the point is Jingle didn't start the wagon on Mime, he pushed for someone else to start it. Jingle could have done the same thing I did and also gotten support from a50, Thor, and while I hadn't said so very clearly, the fact that I was still trying to push GL over a50 or Sesq should have been a pretty strong hint I didn't like either wagon.

[Fink]

I don't get why I'm everyone's preferred lynch candidate, but I'm also having trouble bringing myself to care.

Gut says IV is VT and GL is Goon, if no one is going to care what I have to say I can save myself the effort of rereading though.

[Fink]

Basically, I'm feeling apathetic because we're just going to do this thing where we lynch me and then ignore my reads because I was the guy so dumb he got lynched, so obviously terrible reads.

Anyway, Eragon, all the stuff I've said about GL on previous days, and his generally feeling manipulative but not toward his own lynch.

VOTE: Thor

I'm going to look at IV before GL, I have less bias there, it's not much of a read, and I spent much time trying to figure him out this game.

[Fink]

Like notice how GL just sort of instinctively discredits or argues with anything I say? That could be confbiased town, but I'm much more inclined to think it's Mafia Goon trying to get another mislynch on someone he doesn't think is likely to be Mime.

GL has a sort of blanket discrediting of everything I say.

[Fink]

since for some reason Almost doesn't want to push my wagon despite me being his most confident scumread, can you explain his argument to me? It seems like you kind of understand where he's coming from but I don't

also your post gives me the shudders but people are townreading you for some reason I'm probably just not seeing so i'll let that go

honestly idk what's going on i'll revisit this tmr

This makes me lean a bit goon on IV, if GL is town.

[Fink]

Also Thor's response in 173, I generally think Thor would be more likely to actually interact with his teammate.

[Fink]

The problem with phrases like "throwing shade" is that they're too buzzwordy and kind of lose their meaning, but that's what this is. Sort of generally discrediting me and wanting to lower town's opinion of me, which is good for getting me lynched.

GL has a sort of blanket discrediting of everything I say.

your entire ISO is basically pushing me and calling me scum, of course I'm going to discredit that

This is almost as nice as when he was saying I hadn't done anything this game.

[Fink]

Of course, the other approach would be to blow this up into some big argument, so I'm done responding here, back to IV.

[Fink]

IV is really hard to read, the way he so completely lost interest after Day 1 when we agreed to No Lynch thereafter reads as pretty Mime to me. I mean, I know we all kind of started to lose interest, but IV is another level, and it makes strategic sense to try not to commit to anything at all (which he's done) to avoid drawing any suspicion as Mime or Mafia until such a time as we are lynching again.

I feel like IV is hard null for me, equally likely to be Mafia, Mime, or VT, and that's not good right now.

[Fink]

Actually, Jingle made a good point, obfuscated in a bunch of other crap:

We should lynch not-Thor because then Mime is better off roleblocking Thor so as not to get shot and lose, and we get an extra chance to lynch Mafia. It increases the odds of Mime winning at the expense of Mafia.

It does increase Town's odds of winning the game too though.

[Fink]

VOTE: Guilty Lion

[Fink]

No way is Jingle Mafia, I think Mime is reasonably likely though.

[Fink]

Why would Mafia have Thor make the shot?

[Fink]

and?

[Fink]

Eragon, have you ISOd Thor and GL? Which interactions strike you as impossible for scumbuddies?

Here are the main ones I noticed:

It's not a pretty progression of thought. It reads like he found something he thinks he could paint as "wrong" and attacked it rather than finding something he thinks is scummy.
Now, yes, he may just be sloppy town, I am debating that - but to have him as town anything at this stage boggles my mind.

eh, I guess your interpretation is fair but I just got the sense reading his posts that he was genuinely confused by what you had said and was trying to figure it out. I don't think he was intentionally misrepping especially given how he backed off like you said

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you here; how do Sesq's Mime status and FA_Q2's scum status connect in your mind?

They're both not showing me any evidence of being town

Sesq is aggressively playing scummy whereas FA_Q2 looks a lot more like he's trying to avoid the spotlight while sheeping onto the convenient wagon

It's not a connection between the two necessarily, it's just how I feel about assessing their slots and a possible explanation for the gamestate

What makes FA_Q2 stand out from the other lazy voters on the lazy wagon?
I mean, basically half the game is lazy votes, so why him over, say, Fink doubling down on an RVS position, or IV voting Sesq because Sesq gets reads when voted, or me sticking to cases I last described eight pages ago?

There's surprisingly little between them, just a few bits of conversation. Which makes it

really

interesting how GL was shading me for my lack of interaction with Thor.

[Fink]

GL is likely mime and is a bad vote.

Why Mime?

[Fink]

You missed a couple interactions, like the one where they were talking about lane.
That didn't seem like scum

I did actually make a massive word dump

Also, for little between them, you can say the same about yourself

THAT IS MY WHOLE POINT! AND GL DID. WHICH IS MY POINT

[Fink]

a) Which posts?
b) GL brought it up first, without any hint of mentioning it about himself. Like it's something on his mind.

[Fink]

20% if we lynch randomly in 3v1v1 (and a bit higher than that for Mimes to win), scum pretty favored
If we mislynch today we basically instantly lose
If we lynch Mime today we instantly lose
So today we also have a 20% chance of hitting correctly if we try to lynch Thor's partner, since Eragon is conftown and Thor is confscum

[Fink]

Who the fuck is Dark Shadow?

And yeah, Thor is the towniest person in this game.

[Fink]

If Thor shoots Eragon, tomorrow it's 3 VT vs 2 goons vs 1 mime
we lynch Thor
either
3 VT v 1 goon
No Lynch
2v1 LYLO
OR (ideal for Mafia, and they just need to shoot town read)
1 VT v 1 goon v 1 mime
Mimes have lost, day goes to deadline with no lynch locked in, Mafia shoots, wins

And statistically don't towns do WAY worse than the hypothetical 50% in 2v1 LYLO?

[Fink]

err 2v1v1 but still that's probably better for Mafia than 2v1

[Fink]

Actually, why would Thor make the NK?

If the buddy is GL, I'm already pushing on GL, I feel like GL has more suspicion overall than Thor, who wasn't getting much. Ditto for Aristo. IV may not have been around, but I just found an old KMD game where in the scum thread one scum submitted an action for the other and he was okay with it.

So that pushes me in the direction of Jingle.

[Fink]

Argh

[Fink]

If Mime successfully RBed a killing role, vig or scum, on N2, they'd have repeated the same thing on N3. But they didn't. So FA_Q2 was probably vigged by Nero and shot by Mafia at the same time.

[Fink]

Which, on reread, makes me want to lynch GL more again, damn it.

[Fink]

I think there's no way Thor commits the kill with IV as the scumbuddy. IV isn't the partner who is going to coast to victory if Thor takes the fall. Plus Thor looks somewhat Mimey anyway, so that was going well for him.

[Fink]

I would lynch GL or Jingle

[Fink]

In my mind this is like 50-50 at this point, and I'm happy to just take that risk today, I don't think it really matters to stretch it out.

[Fink]

Do you think mime voted lane?

I don't think that's a sure thing either way. This kind of thing is why VCA is usually useless.

[Fink]

But I am very suspicious, as neither mime nor mafia has visited hin

I'd forgotten about this, but it's actually a really good point. You'd think he would be a good NK target if he were town, and it fits with the Thor doing the kill thing.

VOTE: Jingle

[Fink]

Also I'm somewhat trusting Aristo's mimeread of GL, I don't agree, but I'm probably not thinking clearly there.

[Fink]

It's been another 48 hours now and last post was basically a prod dodge, can we get another prod on IV please?

[Fink]

GL, if you are town rather than Mime, please take a look at your thought process here. You're picking out things I say looking for things to disagree with without engaging with the actual main reason I voted Jingle. Try to take a step back and evaluate things rather than just reflexively finding things to disagree with me on.

Although the fact that GL did that makes me think Ari has a point about the mime thing, it really pushes my buttons.

[Fink]

Fairly certain on GL town at this point with an outside chance of mafia if Fink town. I'm trusting Eragon on Ari town.

Fink is probably scum. IV is either the best bet for mime or scum, and if he doesn't die tonight you should lynch him.

Really not sure what to make of this, but it's weird as hell. Jingle was previously pretty certain GL was Mime not Mafia, has no real reason to trust Eragon's reads, and that thing about IV is just weird. It doesn't read like what Lane did at the end of Day 1, but I'm not sure if it's a more subtle version of that, trying to look like a more subtle version of that, or just weird in a rambly uncalculated way.

There is way too much wine in front of us.

[Fink]

IV may not show up before deadline, so trying to fish for the OMGUS vote there rather than from GL is a longer shot as Mime. But as Mafia it can

look

like fishing for the OMGUS vote in a way that has a chance of never resulting in that vote, so I still like the Jingle vote.

Problem is, if Mime doesn't vote for Mafia, and Thor presumably doesn't vote and Mafia doesn't self vote, we need absolute town consensus to lynch Mafia today (or at any point in the rest of the game.) And one stubborn townie can prevent single-handedly prevent that from happening.

I urge everyone to take a step back and really consider all possibilities, both now and if we have to do this again tomorrow.

[Fink]

It's not plurality, it's majority. If IV is town we can't win without Mime voting Mafia.

If we no lynch we lose a mislynch, so better to self-hammer, same as with MYLO vs. LYLO. I will self-hammer if I'm at L-1 and it's deadline. I think Jingle should do the same if he's town.

[Fink]

I've said all I have to say, I'm not going to convince you, it's all on Ari. This is effectively LYLO where everyone has crossvoted and it's on the last player's reads (Ari).

My case is that Thor wouldn't have performed the kill with a watcher in the game with most other pairs. That sounds like a base to me, but I don't see the point in arguing with you.

[Fink]

Whatever

VOTE: Fink

[Fink]

It's a shame GL and Jingle can't possibly be sharing a PT, they make a great scumteam.

[Fink]

Let's be honest, what are the chances of IV coming back for anything? We'd be much better off if he would just flake out and get replaced rather than coming back to prod dodge. WotCing him in any future games if he's not Mime.

I'm pretty glad to be done, not sure if I hope you are scum or not Jingle, I'm honestly pretty tilted at the moment, feels better if it's manipulation but if you're Mafia you've won. And with how today went down I do think it's increasingly unlikely you're Mime.

My reads have been all over the place as I try to resort the game but I hope everything I said isn't just ignored tomorrow.

[Fink]

Seriously?

[Fink]

So shooting for the townreads apparently.

Feel like the extended night again is going to just hurt morale even more, but if even one of GL or IV is town we basically can't win anyway. And that feels depressingly possible.

[Fink]

VOTE: Thor

This is the only play

[Fink]

Yeah really nothing to say while waiting on Eragon to give last reads/any night results. We should definitely wait for that.

I hope you are serious about being willing to reassess your reads tomorrow GL, if you are town.

[Fink]

Yeah really nothing to say while waiting on Eragon to give last reads/any night results. We should definitely wait for that.

Methinks if there were night results he'd have offered them already, yeah?

I'd hope so, but I'd also assume he'd say something like "Sorry I don't have time to get to this until Thursday, no night results."

[Fink]

It would be meaningless to me anyway. Although it's not like the thread is going to get clogged up at this point, so not sure there's much harm if you want to say it.

[Fink]

[Fink]

I don't want to make KMD prod me but I don't want to give any reads until GL posts.

[Fink]

IV's lurking has gotten more and more extreme and deliberate feeling. Like I'm not really buying the "Jingle is Vig" thing as genuine. And that makes me think Mime, because that's not going to get him lynched but it feels like the sort of thing that

might

enrage people if you're a jester highly disengaged from the game and trying to come up with some half-baked idea to get lynched.

The end of yesterday has me thinking Jingle is not Mime. Overall I think there was a moment where Jingle was a potential lynch yesterday, if he didn't have GL so firmly locking him as town. If Jingle were Mime that would probably be his best chance all game and he played in a way that made it so I really should have been the lynch, when he could have subtly scummed it up a bit I think.

GL is my secondary pick for Mime, and I don't feel like going into it or talking about Mafia reads unless someone other than GL has something they want me to talk about. Partly still a sheep of Ari's read, partly thinking that all the reasons I scumread him could be manipulation that just hasn't worked on Eragon for whatever reason.