Overkill 1: Serenity/Firefly (GAME OVER)

[Tails]

McMenno was the starter of BuJaber and was Stargazer also, I kinda thought he was town. What's the case there for people?
Looking at the lynch;
TPFKAP (9): Thor665, Gamma Emerald, Elsa Jay, CheekyTeeky, BuJaber, Jingle, Nancy Drew Shogunate, Chara, Toogeloo
I'm town, Elsa is not a lynch nor likely groupscum, I think Cheeky is town, I think Toog is town.

I think we should lynch one of Gamma,BuJaber,Nancy Drew,Chara

*snip*

I'm not sure why you're advocating lynching off wagon. From your pov, the following are town: you, Gamma, Jingle, Toog. Elsa is 3p, and therefore not included based off current information. If you agree with Thor, than Cheeky is off the list. If you think Thor is town, that's another name. Leaving you with a 50/50 shot between Nancy and Chara if you think 1 group scum on the wagon. So...why do you want to lynch elsewhere?

[CheekyTeeky]

Aligned with Serenity comes from the Sample town role pm. And you are misreading that post. Flicker did not have the same awareness displayed by {Cheeky, Jingles, chara} which makes them (Flicker) more likely to be scum than town.

~D

Oh. Ok I can see what you're seeing.

What do you make of Toogeloo saying that he's town but that he also had no flavour in their role PM?

Spoiler: Toog discussing flavour

idk who I am

Neither do I. My flavor was cut out "to be revealed later."

Is it bad that I townread everyone except RC, Tor and Chickadee?

Most impressive since like half the game hadn't posted yet.

Joke went over too many heads.

Mod did not, nor did I ask, reveal my flavor. I don't know what I am.

Flavor wise... I "might" be River since, ya know, everyone wants to find her and me taking action would of course make all heads turn my way.

For the record, I do not have any flavor between the 1 and 2 RR was looking for.

My Role PM is simply...
"You are

[REDACTED]

. You are a

Lightning Rod

.

[Explanation of Lightning Rod]

. You win when all threats to the Serenity Crew are gone."

I am not Compulsive.

I'll also happily lynch any 3rd party claim, but that's not the same as actively hunting for 3rd party.

[CheekyTeeky]

Iirc these are the only players who haven't claimed in some way:

Chara, Ari, NDS, Tails, Thor.

Wouldn't it be better to lynch in here rather than in a claim that could be Book? Does Book make sense as a glorified VT or did they have a stronger influence in the series?

[Tails]

@RR: I'm pretty sure Nico checked out of the game early on.

[Thor665]

This is more in line with what I'm thinking. But the vibe of the videos very much rings town to me. How do you feel about the language in the second video? Simon talks about saving river. I feel like if someone were looking for them, an image would suffice, so I feel like the audio is important. And the fact there's two videos.

Frankly, when I watched the video my thought was 'it's a Simon' video because of the line 'It's me' he says.
You got a hard River take.
Apparently RR gets a hard HoB take.

It makes me suspect that the videos as evidence are really problematic.

First since you didn't mention Jingle here, what is your position regarding Jingle, for completeness.

Town.

Just so it's clear to me, and/or I missed it, how do you explain his behavior towards Elsa's crumbing and later role reveal from scum!Tora's pov? SvT, SvS, buddies, or Sv3p. Also what do you think he gains from defending Elsa if Elsa is not on his team.

You don't need to explain his behavior as from scum because his behavior is meaningless on alignment.
He points out, accurately, that the 3p's wincon is not against town's wincon. Equally so (and not discussed by him overly much), it would not be against scum's wincon either.
His willingness and desire to out her as a known quantity is, as he has shown clear awareness, a general boon to his wincon regardless of his alignment, and I believe he is honest in his attitude expressed there. If you believe that also, it is non-alignment relevant because as scum he would make the same argument.

Okay I admit I didn't take your wagon analysis seriously earlier because I saw my name among the list.. but a d1 wagon in a large and probably multiball game on a traitor has to include scum... but also given how many people we can eliminate from the pool based on claims then we also have a really really good chance at lynching scum if we lynch randomly off wagon, let alone if we actually lynch a scummy slot off wagon. Would you agree to that? Like how many scum do you imagine are on the wagon, when 4 out of the 9 are 2 masons, 1 LR, 1 3p doc, and then you and me assuming you're town puts it at 6 out of 9. Even if we ignore the CT townread (which we shouldn't) Mathematically we probably have more scum off the wagon.

With the 9v8 setup you'd argue that any given slot has a 47% chance to be scum.
If you can shift it to a 50% chance it's a better lynch than random.

We will lynch flicker(until someone explains the thing about what we discussed earlier that makes them town) or Tails.
That is as far as we will compromise. That is, not at all.

-Cerb

Why do you hard town the NDS slot?

The 2 thing is really weird and really seems like a HoB crumb, yeah?

I agree it's weird, but I really want someone to explain why Nico would crumb scum and then do jack all to follow up on that play.

As discussed earlier - it is known that the Traitor did not know his partners. It is not known that the partners did not know the Traitor/did not know there was a Traitor; therefore they crumbed in order to allow the Traitor to aid them/crumb back and identify himself.

With an awareness of your and his role PM - are you claiming the 2 thing is absolutely not a crumb?

[Tails]

As discussed earlier - it is known that the Traitor did not know his partners. It is not known that the partners did not know the Traitor/did not know there was a Traitor; therefore they crumbed in order to allow the Traitor to aid them/crumb back and identify himself.

My issue with this theory is that Nico did not follow up on this after her introduction. At least some indication, however slight, that would show that she'd be looking for a traitor. But she essentially grudge voted RR then prod dodged until finally flaking. If she was crumbing, I'd still expect at least a bit more effort.

With an awareness of your and his role PM - are you claiming the 2 thing is absolutely not a crumb?

I have no idea what that is.

[Thor665]

As discussed earlier - it is known that the Traitor did not know his partners. It is not known that the partners did not know the Traitor/did not know there was a Traitor; therefore they crumbed in order to allow the Traitor to aid them/crumb back and identify himself.

My issue with this theory is that Nico did not follow up on this after her introduction. At least some indication, however slight, that would show that she'd be looking for a traitor. But she essentially grudge voted RR then prod dodged until finally flaking. If she was crumbing, I'd still expect at least a bit more effort.

With an awareness of your and his role PM - are you claiming the 2 thing is absolutely not a crumb?

I have no idea what that is.

Why would you expect more effort from a slot I presume you are arguing honest flaked 100%?

That's not the question I asked you - I asked a yes/no question of 'is that 2 thing absolutely not a crumb?'

[Tails]

Why would you expect more effort from a slot I presume you are arguing honest flaked 100%?

I'm trying to understand the rationale of somebody that looks at an opening post and declares it a crumb, without anything else backing it up. I absolutely know that Nico just flaked. And I just see everything else as inconsequential fluff that only she knew the answer to. Her vote seems to be connected to her having a grudge against RR. Everything else was either prod dodging or written on page 1. And I usually ignore things written on page 1.

That's not the question I asked you - I asked a yes/no question of 'is that 2 thing absolutely not a crumb?'

Not as far as I know. I've turned it over every which way in my head, but I can't see how Nico's post is connected with my role.
If you need your one word answer though, "No".

[Light Ethos]

Their reticence and lack of the (as we view it) possibly clearing awareness displayed by cheeky, jingles, and

chara

makes them more likely to be scum than town.

Can you expand on Chara here?

[Light Ethos]

Then flip me Drixx. Do it.

I can understand being annoyed at someone - but for whatever annoyance you have towards Drixx he *did* lay out a fairly comprehensive series of issues with how you're approaching your reads and results and you're hardcore ducking addressing those issues and resorting to just empty attacks.

1. If you're town, this does not help sort the day.
2. If you're scum, you're looking super obvious, and so also shouldn't be doing this.

Please try again?

Why do you think the one video (on TPFKAP) was so slight in actual connection with who he was, and the other is super direct? That seems like a big issue.

I think this is town. In a game that has had a great deal of fluff, focus on avoiding distractions and sorting evidence comes from town more often than not.

[BuJaber]

@Thor & Tails - Because the chance off wagon is likely higher than 50%, given how many non-scum we have on wagon.

Assuming we have at least 4 living scum.

[Tails]

That's still assuming only 1 scum on the wagon, though. But sure, let me drag out the last VC.

[Tails]

Before I do, your reads on Cheeky and Thor?

[Tails]

VC#0

TPFKAP (9): Thor665, Gamma Emerald, Elsa Jay, CheekyTeeky, BuJaber, Jingle, Nancy Drew Shogunate, Chara, Toogeloo

BuJaber (2): McMenno, Chickadee
Flicker (2): Reasonably Rational, northsidegal
NicoRobin (2): Malakittens TPFKAP
Reasonably Rational (1): NicoRobin


Not Voting: Flicker

Deadline suspended

So {Ethos, Chickadee, RR, Ari, Mala, me}
Remove Mala, since lyncher
Assuming you only think 1 scum on wagon, and 4-5 scum combined (3/3, not including TPF), then that's 3-4 scum off?
Depending if you have any strong town reads, you're probably right. But again, that's assuming only 1 scum on TPF wagon. And a 50/50 shot is not something to sneeze at.

[Tails]

I think we really need to know your strong town reads among {Thor, Cheeky Ethos, Chickadee, RR, Ari, me} before going much further.

[Tails]

Also should probably know your assumptions for number of scum left and amount of scum off and on wagon.

[BuJaber]

It's pretty close between on and off... I guess my position would change if I didn't TR Tora day 1. With only seeing Chara as an option, it's not much of a choice.

Cheeky I've been flip flopping a lot on because she feels sheepy. I don't know if I can townread her strongly. She's a townlean for now because I've generally been happy with her tone and she was engaging people directly quite a bit earlier in the game.

Thor I'm townreading

And yes there is a sort of underlying assumption of 1 scum on wagon but that's based on PoE not any specific reason for it. As in I'm pretty confident that 6 out of the 9 on wagon are not scum, and I townlean cheeky that's 7. I suppose I didn't account for NDS and Chara being scum of different factions, but I'm not sure the Tora/RC fight happens the way it did if both are scum.


Pedit - Thor / Chick - town
Cheeky / RR - town but not so strong
Ari / you - scum

And I haven't thought about it much until I started on this wagon discussion.. but traitor + 2 group, and another faction of 2-3 seems likely. So I'm assuming 5-6 total scum.

[BuJaber]

Wait how would the extra kills required factor in... maybe 7 scum isn't too op, especially with 2 per cycle limit on town deaths.

What's the maximum number of scum you think can be on wagon? Even a generous 3 scum on wagon still leaves us with a possible 4 off wagon if 7 scum total.

[BuJaber]

Ah no wait if 3 on wagon that's a max of 3 off wagon because TFP flipped already..

Yeah see I'd bet money on there being 1 scum on wagon, but less sure for 2, and skeptical that there's 3.
Off wagon makes much more sense

[Gamma Emerald]

Per the OP. I don't think anything from the comics should be considered likely inspiration for events/roles here, but it's possible.

That's entirely missing the point. The point isn't that they died in the comics. The point is that they were never even referenced in the movie.

The first of the two videos is about the movie. Entirely about the movie.

The characters you are saying make the most sense for the clue don't appear in the movie.

Therefore, said characters are unlikely to be referenced through specifically a clue centered around the movie.

I'm not disputing that the angle of "They're focused on Simon and River, therefore videos of Simon and River." makes sense. I'm arguing that including a video of the portion of the flavor for which the character is conspicuously absent is a shitty way to leave a clue about the character.

Your case is built on two pieces of evidence that I believe to be counterindicative. A result from Chick suggesting NOT HoB and a crumb from NR suggesting HoB.

I disagree with the conclusion that the absence of HoB from the film means the slot can't be HoB.

-Cerb

pedit: Look at Drixx using all the words to say what I was saying.

How does that make any sense?

[Gamma Emerald]

@Tails what is your knowledge of the flavor?

Watched the show and movie multiple times. Have the first two graphic novels. So pretty good.

Ok
The reason I asked was that if you lacked experience asking you what Nico was crumbing yields nothing meaningful

[Thor665]

I'm trying to understand the rationale of somebody that looks at an opening post and declares it a crumb, without anything else backing it up.

It was blatantly either an inside joke or a crumb (or Nico needs to seek professional help - but I don't think that's the case).
No one is 'getting' the joke.
Ergo - more likely a crumb, yeah?

@Thor & Tails - Because the chance off wagon is likely higher than 50%, given how many non-scum we have on wagon.

Assuming we have at least 4 living scum.

That's starting to confuse probability with percentage chance - and it also presumes all your reads are right.
We already know for a fact there is at least one non-town on (Elsa) and two off (Porkens and Mala).
With, again presuming the 9 town theory, thus 5 non-town remaining.
Probability actually suggests more are on the wagon due to what assured non-town claims we have (town are unlikely to be claiming non-town so pretty much their alignment claims are 100% while the other claims are not).

I would suggest that means the real question is, why aren't you hard suspecting some of the claims *or* why aren't you voting one of the 'meh' reads from the wagon?

Oh, look, there's that NDS wagon, it looks awfully attractive there across the bar and so very alone, you should ask it if it would like to dance.

[Tails]

I forgot Flickr.

@Jabs: Do you believe Flickr's claim enough to either think town or not on table?

[BuJaber]

That's starting to confuse probability with percentage chance - and it also presumes all your reads are right.
We already know for a fact there is at least one non-town on (Elsa) and two off (Porkens and Mala).
With, again presuming the 9 town theory, thus 5 non-town remaining.
Probability actually suggests more are on the wagon due to what assured non-town claims we have (town are unlikely to be claiming non-town so pretty much their alignment claims are 100% while the other claims are not).

I would suggest that means the real question is, why aren't you hard suspecting some of the claims *or* why aren't you voting one of the 'meh' reads from the wagon?

You're calculating just pure odds here right? Not factoring in claims, reads, and your own alignment? Because I don't understand how you get more scum on wagon than off.

And what claims would I suspect?
Flicker is the only one I can see lying from the hard claims. Not lying about priest obviously but lying about being town. Elsa maybe.
Soft claims are too ambiguous to accept/reject based on claim. That would be your RR and cheeky, who are currently townleans.

We're basically going round and round only to return to you wanting me to vote for NDS. And I can't give you that at this time.

I'm thinking off wagon is better so the on-wagon rationale won't convince me... just wait for Tora to post again and focus on why we should vote NDS.

Pedit - answered.. claim was proven by her. Just doesn't make her necessarily town.
Any non-serenity characters that would fit with a priest modifier?
Also she recently claimed that's all her role is VT with priest.. which is new info that nobody talked about .. I'm kinda skeptical of that though why she would claim it as scum is beyond me.

[BuJaber]

Chick ask the mod what happens if you cop the same person twice. Do you get new clues or the same ones?