Limbo l Victory!

[Snowman]

Merry Christmas!

VOTE: Carcalilly

[Snowman]

FUN FACT: My avatar is based on the animated short "The Snowman", which Frozen completely ripped off in that teaser trailer where Olaf and the moose fight over Olaf's nose, so if anything Olaf is the real phony here.

@almost, I'm not new, but also not sure what you mean by "snarky"?

[Snowman]

If the Toxic Goo thinks they can obv-town enough to draw the night-kill, it might be worth it for them to stay hidden even with the possibility of watcher -- obviously that'd be something they'd have to decide on their own terms. Otherwise it would probably make more sense for them to claim as they're more likely to draw town PRs, though it also helps mafia a lot in terms of who not to night-kill.

I have no clue why it'd possibly be a good idea for VT to claim.

[Snowman]

I don't see why VTs would need to claim just because of the possibility of a Neo. It would help literally just one role at the cost of basically handing scum their NK plan, and that's assuming a Neo exists in the first place.

[Snowman]

Ah, gotcha. Didn't know there were other snowmen around here.

[Snowman]

It feels like this thread is in a state of limbo...

[Snowman]

Joey is my strongest town read. Setup spec is easy to do as scum, but the way he did it (interacting with everyone, bouncing ideas around) was pretty towny. His regular activity and his aggression against Maria also suggests town.

I don't like Maria's vote or her reasons for scum-reading Joey, but post 83 is gold. Also don't think her ascetic claim is scum motivated.

[Snowman]

why would VT or Toxic Goo claim?

Considering we've already spent two pages discussing the topic at the time of this post this question didn't seem necessary, particularly the "Toxic Goo" part.

^ Scummy

VOTE: Dunnstral

Pops back in to drop essentially a naked vote on the leading wagon. Seems pretty opportunistic.

[Snowman]

First impression of Dunn was that his "toxic goo and VT should claim" entrance would be pretty forward coming from scum. I thought his Maria vote was fine but his later "Maria's claim is convenient" post and later backtracking was less so. Still could see Dunn being town here, but both of Manetee's posts are drenched in scum.

VOTE: ManateeDude

[Snowman]

I'm not going to vote someone who hasn't even posted in the game. Literally the only indication that his flip has a >rand chance of being scum is the notion that "his scum meta is obvious", but unless his scum meta is to not even post at all that doesn't mean anything. More than likely he just flaked out / over-gamed / straight out forgot about this game, which is NAI at best.

[Snowman]

Like, not posting at all, period? Is there a scum-game of his where he has to be prodded D1 for literally not posting a single time?

[Snowman]

Just flipped through a few Creature scum games and holy moly does he play an obvious scum.

Still don't see a point in voting him before he follows through with his prod / is replaced. If he is scum it'd probably be obvious by the end of D1 anyways. I just think its a shot in the dark rn even considering his scum meta.

[Snowman]

Um... the deadlines not in 20 hours? That's just his prod timer.

[Snowman]

Ffs, Almost. I never said Creature was scum. I said he was obvious scum in context to the scum games I've looked at from him. How are you so convinced he's scum when he hasn't even posted yet? How are you so sure the only reason he wouldn't have posted by now is because he's scum? There's no reason to lynch him before he's even posted, and the fact that you think me pushing against this is proof I'm 100% scum with him is laughably bad.

[Snowman]

@Chara, Almost's case is compelling? Elsa's the real driving force behind the Creature lynch here. All Almost is doing is making weak attempts to shade me as Creature's partner.

[Snowman]

Fwiw I think Elsa's find here since a lot of it stems from her misconception that the deadline was in less than 24 hours, and I could see why she'd want to push a Creature lynch under those conditions.

[Snowman]

Not really a fan of assessing players based on their activity elsewhere. Honestly I think it does increase the possibility of scum!Creature slightly, but I'd much rather assess him on his actual posts. Still bothered by the assertion that me not voting Creature right after Elsa suggested it == I'd be scum with him if he flips red.

[Snowman]

also Almost shading you as Creature's partner will never matter unless Creature flips scum. so you should be fine! <3

Is this implying that you think Creature's town, or am I missing something here?

Also, was you jumping off of Dunnstral's wagon related to Dunn himself or did you just feel like wagoning Creature (i.e. has your opinion on Dunn changed at all)?

[Snowman]

@Chara, ooohh that was a joke, I get it. Feel kind of dumb now.

[Snowman]

@Creature, why is Lady town? Also, what do your scumreads look like rn?

[Snowman]

@Creature, what do your scumreads look like rn?

[Snowman]

I have no idea how Maria's still scum-reading Joey.

I initially thought Dunn's Kokichi vote was a mistake but I'd have expected him to have corrected it by now in that case. Not sure why he'd call Almost's posts awkward yet vote Kokichi immediately after. Seems awkward in and of itself.

[Snowman]

still, don't think townreading plenty of players is that town indicative.

Basically my reaction to Creature's entrance. For being the highest poster I didn't get that strong of an impression from him.

[Snowman]

@Joey tell me what you found towny from Almost. I couldn't find anything.

[Snowman]

@Chara, I thought Manatee's opening question was useless since people already voiced their opinions on why Toxic Good should claim. It seemed more likely to come from scum pretending to contribute than from town not paying attention to the thread or something. Thought the vote was pretty bad too. It wasn't that I assumed Dunn was town persay, it was more assuming Manatee was scum and that he generally wouldn't want to vote his own partner. Don't like to rely on pre-flip associations to construct my reads in general though.

[Snowman]

Mostly waiting for Manatee to pop back into the thread.

[Snowman]

@Maria, it's not just his reaction though. It's also his general engagement with the game and game-solving that screams town. I also can't really see why he'd want to consider the possibility of town!you even after all that. I've been reading through the you VS Joey debate as objectively as possible and honestly I find myself siding with him most of the time. Like, when you first explained your Joey scum-read you said that you don't remember him caring about mech-talk but when he corrected you, you pretty much dropped the point all-together. Then you tried to spin him saying "even if I was objectively scummy" into him admitting he was being objectively scummy when that's completely wrong on a purely grammatical sense, and when he corrected you on that you changed the subject all-together. I might be biased in town-reading since I never read his scum games before and don't know what his scum range looks like, but I think you might be biased from seeing him play scum and are being overly paranoid when Joey's ISO spews town overall.

[Snowman]

He didn't really correct me because he's incorrect. He doesn't talk like that as town I've seen him do it as scum. I dropped it because I knew he would say "no you're wrong" it'd be a pointless back and forth to keep going over the same thing over and over. He has done it as scum period. Has he done it as town? Maybe I don't remember it but I know he's done it as scum.

The thing though is that you dropping it made it seem like you didn't have a rebuttal to it at all, and I don't think that helped your case very much.

I saw it one way and he corrected me on what he was saying. What more is there to talk about on that subject? Nothing really

I think your personal interpretation of it was a stretch, but regardless a simple acknowledgement of it (i.e. "oh, I see how you meant X") would've been better than dodging it all together.

Correct you've never seen Joey scum so you don't have an informed opinion like I do. I've seen both town and scum Joey and it's pretty easy at least with my meta to tell what he is if he does the same old tells (although I may have messed up that opportunity ) his scum range is pretty big and I'm saying don't townread him so easily because he can do this as scum. It's not paranoia it's just fact. The only player here I would say I have paranoia about is Chara because I got outright fooled by them.

I'm going to take your word and assume nothing he's done so far is technically outside his scum-range -- I just don't think he's scum for the reasons you're pushing. The only point I can sort of see is that he apparently doesn't talk about mechs much as town, but most of the playerlist talked about mechs early on so I don't consider it that strong of a tell. I'd like to look into it a bit for myself, though. Are there any notable scum games of his you can link -- especially w/ regards to mechanics? It'll give me a better idea of where you're coming from. I'd also like to know if there's anything he's done that's outside his town range unrelated to mech talk.

[Snowman]

Hey, Manatee. What's on your mind rn?

[Snowman]

Mostly waiting for Manatee to pop back into the thread.

what

sigh...

got anything else to add?

Agree in terms of the general frustration with Manatee, but calling someone out on prod dodging while prod dodging yourself isn't much better.

[Snowman]

Was hoping Maria would follow up w/regards to Joey's scum meta by now. If mech talk's in his town range though then I don't have any reason to suspect him atm.

[Snowman]

Why don’t you answer to questions asked directly to you totodile

[Snowman]

Theres at least 1 wolf on my wagon, town takes more time to think through a post and the alignment which cannot be done with a what post.

What does this even mean?

Idk A50 overemphasizing feels towny

Elaborate on this.

[Snowman]

@Lady, fair enough. Join me on the Manatee wagon?

[Snowman]

I feel as if scum doesn't feel the need to overpush their reads, it seems kind of awkward

Don't really think Almost voting you two separate times is an overpush.

[Snowman]

gamma stop taking more games when ur gonna prodge this 1

Gamma isn't in this game?

Also, talk to me about this spirit animal of yours.

[Snowman]

VOTE: chara this is awkward

you haven't answered either me or Almost about why this is.

Are you ever going to respond to this?

[Snowman]

Not feeling town!Manatee. Don't like anything he's posted so far, and his reads feel underdeveloped. His lack of activity doesn't bode well with me either.

[Snowman]

@Chara, can you link the Purr game you're talking about?

Is post #39 what you meant when you referred to Purr's aggressive opening? Thought it was more of a joke overall and can't really see how it would imply you and Dunn are scum this game, unless there was another post you meant. Agreed though that boasting about her past performance was pretty petty.

[Snowman]

@Chara, OK, I see where you're coming from. Thought you meant "opening" as in the very first posts Purr made.

[Snowman]

I think the boasting thing was more addressed towards me. That was basically my interpretation of her "3/5" comment, but now that I think about it I don't know if "boasting" was the right word there.

[Snowman]

And I don't think Manatee's lynchbait. The lynchbait I've seen are scummy on the surface but hide good reads/contributions beneath that coat, and I don't get that impression from him. If he is lynchbait he's doing a pretty bad job at it and/or prioritizing being "lynchbait" over participating meaningfully.

[Snowman]

What reads btw?

I'm more annoyed that for the most part he's offered even less than the rest of the prod dodgers.

I liked this post from Angel since it went along the same lines I was thinking, but otherwise there's a lot of yuck in her ISO too.

[Snowman]

Manatee's townreading Almost and Nos and presumably scumreading Dunnstral.

i don't like that post from Lady because she's one of those prod dodgers that hasn't offered anything, so it doesn't really ring genuine to me.

I could see the Almost read coming from either alignment. I don't find the Dunn sr that towny since a lot of people were already calling him scum and it seemed he was just jumping on that bandwagon. The Nos read would be a bit weird coming from scum, but that's about it for me.

With the Lady post it depends on how self aware of her activity she is. Sometimes it's just the case where you forget to consider your own actions when making reads (i.e. "X seems scummy, but I did X too so maybe they did X for the same reasons I did"). I don't think this as strongly as I once did though since I remembered she was pretty self aware about how limp her reads were.

[Snowman]

Not feeling town!Manatee. Don't like anything he's posted so far, and his reads feel underdeveloped. His lack of activity doesn't bode well with me either.

It's more like the reads aren't organized; they seem pretty full and concise to me.

He hasn't said too much about any of his reads. The Almost read is the most fleshed out, but it feels like he's just rephrasing his initial read. I'm not getting the depth I was hoping for.

[Snowman]

Dunn is an OK wagon, but personally I'm not feeling scum!Dunn too much. The "^ scummy" comments get annoying after a while and the backtrack from Maria was kind of awkward, but that's about it for me.

[Snowman]

Creature has been prodded.

(expired on 2018-11-03 11:04:10)

We have 20 damn hours and I'm not feeling the Dunn and Mana wagons. So we get rid of the slot that'll fuck us later.

VOTE: Dunnstral

So I don't get accidentally prodded again.

What changed between these two posts?

[Snowman]

-.-

Elsa, I don't think you've given a single read so far. Got any you'd like to share?

[Snowman]

Didn't like Lady's reaction to that.

VOTE: Lady Angel

@Lady, tell me what's AI of Elsa's Maria vote.

[Snowman]

VOTE: Elsa Jay

Trying to RNG a lynch? Really?

whats your reads ladybug
UNVOTE:

Also, this. It'd be nice to get some more content from you than just prod dodges.

[Snowman]

It's completely out of the blue and RNG-based, for one.

But how specifically is that scummy? What would be Elsa's scu motive for doing something so surface-level scummy? I get there's use in a "too scummy to be scum" play-style, but I'm not seeing how you genuinely saw her dice-roll vote scummy enough to warrant a vote. Could you link the games with the RNG-based deathtunnels?

I don't like her whole "I want to be suspicious" thing, or how willing she was to sheep on Creature with a misunderstanding of time.

For one, Elsa didn't "sheep" on Creature -- she started the wagon. Can you elaborate on what you mean by "a misunderstanding of time"? Not really sure what you mean by that or why you found it scummy. You also said you liked the case on Creature, which makes it weird that you're scum-reading Elsa now since she was the one who created it.

[Snowman]

y'all need to Unvote that ^

Explain to me what you're town-reading Lady for. Just telling people to unvote w/o any reasoning isn't particularly convincing.

[Snowman]

I'm tr-ing Elsa overall. I thought the Creature push was reachy, but I could see why she'd be motivated to push that given her misconception of the length of the deadline, and as scum I feel she'd be more content to allow a no-lynch if she really was mistaken about the deadline. I was irked off by her refusal to participate in the game overall -- it's one thing to lurk on purpose but flat out refuse to give reads was off-putting -- but I did like her contribution in post 440 as it aligns a lot with my reads, even if I didn't reach them the same way she did. In any case I think the Elsa wagon is awful and I don't see why players are scum-reading her over Lady in particular.

[Snowman]

VOTE: Elsa Jay

1. people are voting her
2. the trying on a new lurker meta is just weird..

This vote is also pretty bad and is just regurgitating what people have already said about Elsa. Also noteworthy that this is the second time he's been the L-4 vote on a wagon.

[Snowman]

I'm not satisfied by Lady's answers. The whole "played in games where people have based deathtunnels by RNGing a target" thing could potentially explain her overreaction to Elsa's dice vote, but I wanted to see the games for myself to see if its comparable, though when I asked her about this among other things she just flat out ignored me. Half of her Elsa read doesn't make any sense, and I don't like the transition from her liking the case on Creature -> attacking Elsa for pushing on Creature.

[Snowman]

It wasn't on this site, and several years old. I'm not gonna be able to find them.

what else did you ask me?

There's two main things concerning me right now:

1)Explain what you meant by Elsa "sheeping on Creature with a misunderstanding of time" and how you thought that was scummy.

2)Explain how you went from initially liking the case on Creature to now scum-reading Elsa for her push on Creature.

[Snowman]

Elsa is scummier than LA
That first point isn't really AI

How is Elsa scummier than LA? And if you think Elsa is scummier than LA then why aren't you voting for Elsa right now?

[Snowman]

Okay, but was it really that much of an overreaction? A page 20 RVS is far from the worst reason to vote for alone.

*Page 17. And yes it was pretty bad. There's no obvious scum motive for voting based on a dice roll, and there's a good chance Elsa wasn't even that serious about it. It only seems scummy on the surface level because "look she's voting someone for no reason, look how scummy that is!", but really Lady shouldn't be jumping to the conclusion that's it's obviously scummy so soon, especially since she's apparently not as new as I thought she was given her last post. And it's especially bad given that before her vote she was pretty much just prod dodging and not contributing much at all.

[Snowman]

Also hiya new replacements!

[Snowman]

Elsa is scummier than LA
That first point isn't really AI

How is Elsa scummier than LA? And if you think Elsa is scummier than LA then why aren't you voting for Elsa right now?

What has LA done that is scummy besides not react the way you sare sshe should have?

-general lack of activity
-post #151, somewhat for the "don't trust my reads" comment but mostly b/c of the disconnect between her liking the case on Creature yet not voting because "flucuating reason isn't a great reason to me"... which was essentially the case on Creature.
-post #274, for complaining about a prod dodger while prod dodging herself
-post #476 is a bit weird too actually. Sure Elsa isn't the leading wagon but she is a trendy counter-wagon. Does this imply scum always has to vote the biggest wagon or something?
-also a few other things I won't mention again because you can literally just look at the last handful of posts I've made.

In hindsight it isn't much but that's mostly because of my first point. The point is there's hardly anything in her ISO I'd call towny at all, especially in comparison to the more scummier things she's done. Also, saying that I think she's scummy because she "didn't react the way I thought you should have" (which is what I assume you must've meant through your garbled text) is pretty disingenuous, especially since I've already pointed out things I didn't like from her numerous times through my ISO. Did you just not bother to read or something?

And the thing about her not linking her games was pretty flimsy for you to bring up.

How so? I wanted to see if the games she's talking about would've put her Elsa vote in better context. And it's not her not linking my games that bothered me -- it was more her ignoring my questions overall.

[Snowman]

Because I don't like the Elsa wagon for today

Why not? I mean, you think she's scummy, so what's this aversion to "not liking the Elsa wagon" you have?

How is Elsa scummier than LA?

I'd like an answer to this too, please.

[Snowman]

Because I don't like the Elsa wagon for today

Why not? I mean, you think she's scummy, so what's this aversion to the Elsa wagon you have?

EBWOP. Thought the original wording was kind of clunky.

[Snowman]

Elsa's play seems designed to draw votes and I took that to possibly mean a couple different things.
Which is why I'm sort of interested in how he's your strongest town read to the point you're almost white knighting
You made a post or two on the subject but i don't get how your read is that strong still

First off, I never said Elsa was my strongest town read. The most I've said was that I tr-ed her overall. I thought she was pretty town ever since the Creature push since I thought it was justified by her misconception of the deadline. It did actually wane down a bit since I didn't like how insistent she was on not providing content at all, but her first reads-list did reassure me a bit. I'm not trying to white knight -- and I'm probably going to end up reassessing my read on her D2 when her main strategy purportedly kicks on -- but I have no idea why people are pushing Elsa's lynch so hard, especially in comparison to Lady Angel. I'm trying to find what's overtly scum-AI about Elsa's posting, but the only thing I get is that she's playing "too scummy to be scum", which is meh. At best I can see her being a null read to some players, but outright scum reading her feels like a stretch to me.

I think we should run nos Slot up cause I haven't got a town ping from him throughout this game and I think i read him so well that he is almost me. So that is why my vote is here

I don't see how you got anything AI from Nos's play.

[Snowman]

How is Elsa scummier than LA?

@Purr, you've never given a clear answer to this.

[Snowman]

1) Elsa wagoned Creature because she thought there was 20 hours in the day, so she jumped on it. Scum in general is more likely to wagon if it's near the end of the day to swing a mislynch, and Elsa hopping on thinking it was less than a day to go fits that.

2) I stopped liking the case on Creature once he posted, and as I said up there Elsa's push felt scummy to me.

1) But Elsa didn't "jump" onto any wagon -- she started the wagon in the first place. Why push Creature specifically instead of Dunn/Manatee when they had more votes than Creature at the time? If she wanted to push a mis-lynch, wouldn't she want to jump on one with more votes, especially since she thought she wouldn't have much time to do so?

2) So did Elsa's push only feel scummy after Creature posted? Sounds a lot like hindsight bias to me. You do realize that Elsa also unvoted after Creature posted as well, right? Your line of thinking seems pretty identical to Elsa's, so I don't get why you're scum-reading her for something you yourself have done.

[Snowman]

Okay, but isn't that a way to improve activity? It could probably help her get back into the game/its her attempt to rile it back up, which it worked.

I mean, I guess that could be her intention if she's town, but it's not really clear that's her intention in the first place. I definitely don't think she foresaw her vote stirring activity -- the only explanation I can think of is if she purposefully made a bad vote, but I would've expected her to retract it by now in that case.

Plus it really sucks to be like, "lurking is scummy" then as soon as they make a post trying to play the game it's suddenly scummy as well. Like, no.

It's not like her Elsa vote is the first post she made all game. She's made multiple attempts to "play the game" and all of them fell flat. There's a general newbie feel to her play -- which is weird considering she's apparently been playing for years now? -- and that's fine overall. It's the inconsistencies in her logic and her tendency to scum-read people for the exact same things she's doing that's really bothering me.

[Snowman]

Yes, you can retract a vote if you're the leading wagon? Especially if, say, you were voting a town read, because getting them lynched instead of yourself won't do you any favors. You seem overly concerned with being lynched.

[Snowman]

1) But Elsa didn't "jump" onto any wagon -- she started the wagon in the first place. Why push Creature specifically instead of Dunn/Manatee when they had more votes than Creature at the time? If she wanted to push a mis-lynch, wouldn't she want to jump on one with more votes, especially since she thought she wouldn't have much time to do so?

2) So did Elsa's push only feel scummy after Creature posted? Sounds a lot like hindsight bias to me. You do realize that Elsa also unvoted after Creature posted as well, right? Your line of thinking seems pretty identical to Elsa's, so I don't get why you're scum-reading her for something you yourself have done.

Stop dodging my questions, please.

[Snowman]

Retracting a vote on the second-highest wagon while you're the highest wagon is a bad idea because it puts you closer to being lynched? My hands are kind of tied right now in terms of possibly moving a vote, since there isn't another option right now.

Outside of Lylo/Mylo I don't see how being the biggest wagon should influence your vote much at all. If you make a good vote with a good enough case it's likely players would jump off of you and onto a new wagon. Just because your the highest wagon doesn't mean your lynch is inevitable or that things can't turn around.

I... was actually unaware that Elsa started the creature wagon. I'll chalk that up to school, but that was an oversight on my part. So I guess you can ignore my case. I still don't really like her in this game, but I guess that's down to gut feeling status. Oh well.

This answer should've came a lot sooner than it actually did.

[Snowman]

UNVOTE:

Lady, I'm still disappointed by your lack of contributions overall. I get that you were defending yourself for being the leading wagon and all, but do you have any new reads? If not, can you expand on your Joey/Maria trs and/or Purr/Almost scum-reads instead? Would like to get more content to read you off in general.

[Snowman]

Still don't like anything Manatee's done this game, and he's been mostly coasting while attention was focused on Lady. Don't like the Elsa wagon, and the Dunn wagon is still pretty meh to me. Lynching the Creature/Nos slots right now is a hard no from me.

VOTE: ManateeDude

[Snowman]

Performer's ISO is pretty much garbage. Scum-reading Dunn for being engaging is a really gross reason to push someone even with the meta comparison, and he mostly ignores Dunn when pushed to elaborate on his "Dunn not playing to his town meta" read. Also, that vote on Elsa is just beyond miserable. Dunn's push on the Creature slot for his supposed scum meta is pretty bad and reachy, but I'm not so sure it's scum motivated. Seems like a pretty bad push to default to as scum, and he wasn't that desperate considering there were viable wagons in Lady/Elsa at the time. I also jive with his case on Performer overall, and while some of the Dunn/Ruby interactions do cause me to question Dunn's alignment a bit, Performer's more likely to flip scum overall.

VOTE: Performer

[Snowman]

@Carca, a refresher on what you're scum-reading Elsa for?

[Snowman]

@Carca, I knew about the case, was more looking to see if you were sr-ing her for anything new. I don't see anything AI from Elsa's fluff-posting. Her insistence to not participate was annoying, but I like some of her recent posts now that she's posting more game-relevant stuff. Really don't see anything lynch-worthy from her. Is there anything you're tr-ing Performer for?

[Snowman]

Oh, gotcha. That makes sense.

[Snowman]

UNVOTE:

I dunno if I like either wagon, tbh. Interested in seeing Alonzo's catchup.

[Snowman]

Alonzo, is there any reasoning behind your Elsa vote beyond "derailing the gamestate"?

[Snowman]

Town.

[Snowman]

Are you talking to me or Elsa?

[Snowman]

She's prob town too. There's a few posts here and there that bother me, but I like her ISO overall. Also don't think her Ascetic claim comes from scum, particularly the timing of it. Why Maria in particular?

[Snowman]

Merry Christmas!

VOTE: Carcalilly

Ok last one... wats your history like with Carca?

Mmmmmm.... it's limited. Don't want to go into it too much b/c I want to keep this alt semi-private, but there's nothing that juts out too much from the town play I have seen from her. Have any reads of your own yet?

[Snowman]

I'm iffy about Performer. The only thing that struck me particularly scummy was the Dunn vote and his reasoning behind it (didn't really think sr-ing Dunn "for being engaging" was genuine), and then when Dunn called him out to explain it he pretty much just ghosted. The rest of his ISO is bad but not necessarily scummy. I thought Ruby made a good point that as scum he wouldn't really want to switch off the Dunn wagon, and I get a bit of a "too scummy to be scum" vibe from his posts. Would still prefer to lynch him over Dunn, but eh...

[Snowman]

I've been a bit busy over the past couple of days and honestly not that motivated to play mafia, so I'm still trying to read/re-read through the thread for the most part.

[Snowman]

Elsa's claim sounds like a scum role, which makes it unlikely that she'd ac tually claim it as scum. Its one of those roles thats so unique and out there that I have little trouble believing its her actual role. Sorry for any upcoming typos -- Im restricted to phone posting for the moment.

[Snowman]

If we were basing t he Creature slot just on his scum meta alone then I'd probably b e on boar d with a Creatute lynch, but Ruby's play has been pretty town as a whole. Can 't really pull up any q uotes right now, but I agree with some of t he points Purr brought up. Hold up for a sec, I want to try to find out why my phone keeps on adding all these dumb spaces.

[Snowman]

Nvm, turns out I cant fix it. Anyways, Id be most on board with a Performer lynch since theres nothing Im actualy tring him for compared to Dunn/Ruby, but I'd like to try to not default to that lynch if I can help it.

[Snowman]

I basically liked none of Manatees play this game. He pretty much just coasted this day phase, mostly popping in to vote the leading wagon and throwing out a few limp reads. Theres not even much transitipn between votes, it s just "Hey, this looks like a goo d, growing wagon, let me just jump on that real fast". No ne of his votes are good a t all, and it doesnt help that these votes are the only thing s h e managrs to accomplosh with his prod dodges.

[Snowman]

Alonzos ISO isnt that much better either. I mean, hes made almost fifty posts and maybe like 10% of it is actual game solving. It just reads like hes trying to contribute w/o offering much at all -- active lurking, essemtially. And yes, I know he recently replcaed in, but look at how Ruby came into the game rolling, only taking like a day to get into some meaty game-solving. Even Performer's done more, and he admitted he hardly even read the game upo n replacing in.

[Snowman]

VOTE: Alonzo

Defintely think this slot has the highest scum equity overall. I'll probably try to develop the case more when I get home, but I'm not really able to pull up any quotes rn, so just take my summary of the slot's play for the time being.

[Snowman]

Then vote Alonzo?

[Snowman]

I mean, he already finds your posts scummy. Don't see why it's unreasonable to ask him to vote someone he's already scum-reading.

[Snowman]

When I think Ruby doesnt have that high of a chance of flipping scum? Absolutely.

[Snowman]

When I think Ruby doesnt have that high of a chance of flipping scum? Absolutely.

I semi agree, hence why I didn't vote there

Well, then the same could be said that you want to break up the Ruby wagon as well, unless you expect the 5 needed votes to come from the 7 players not currently voting Ruby, or that you're not even going to try to convince those on the Ruby wagon to join your preferred wagon.

[Snowman]

The worst, I'm not sure what you're scum-reading me for from the 28% of posts of mine you've seen. The biggest take-away I got was that you think my questions are dumb and stupid, but that just seems like a disagreement in scum-hunting.

Meant to do this yesterday, but I got caught up in other things, so here's my case on the Manatee/Alonzo slot, split across multiple posts for your convenience.

[Snowman]

He has replaced out of 2 games as scum and 0 games as town

As scum, he makes weird bullshit votes and then sits on them for weeks at a time

As town, he does weird reaction tests and then responds quickly to those reaction tests

Based on meta, Manatee is incredibly likely to flip scum. Honestly it's the strongest meta-based case in the entire game atm

manatee scum meta

Honestly this should be reason enough to lynch Manatee, especially since his play this day phase wasn't all that town motivated, but let's pretend this doesn't actually exist and shift through his ISO.

why would VT or Toxic Goo claim?

Pointless question, I've talked about this before.

^ Scummy

VOTE: Dunnstral

Naked vote, which is not bad in and of itself but I didn't like his positioning on the wagon either.

Mostly waiting for Manatee to pop back into the thread.

what

Theres at least 1 wolf on my wagon, town takes more time to think through a post and the alignment which cannot be done with a what post.

Dumb reaction test. Town would be frustrated at his lack of activity just as much as scum would pretend to, and its mostly a deflection from posting actual content.

VOTE: Elsa Jay

1. people are voting her
2. the trying on a new lurker meta is just weird..

Plenty of players already said something along these lines about Elsa, so it isn't anything new. Also the second time he's jumped on the new and trendy wagon.

Hey, ManateeDudge/Almost50/Kokichi, why are Elsa Jay/Lady Angel better lynches than me from your perspective?

Elsa pings me when you bother me more I guess

if dunnstral flips town then i'll be the fucking first one on performer's wagon (hell, even if dunn flips scum it's a possibility)

dunn should still go first

VOTE: dunnstral
Town

The transition between these two posts are awkward. He never does explain how Dunnstral went from simply "bothering him" to actually being scummy. At this point it's also clear he doesn't care about voting anything but the popular wagons, which is pretty safe play and perfect for someone hoping to coast by D1.

[Snowman]

Now, onto Alonzo's ISO...

VOTE: ELSA

How do you like my attempts to derail the current gamestate?

How do you like my vote on all that jelly but no toast?

He starts out by throwing out a vote literally just to derail the game-state. Being self-aware that what you're doing is bad doesn't makes it less bad. A pretty piss-poor reaction test that doesn't read like genuine game-solving.

Alonzo, is there any reasoning behind your Elsa vote beyond "derailing the gamestate"?

Given the hour of my arrival into the game, its part of a larger intel sweep..

Whats your read on Elsa?

Reckon you can help me sort Maria?

Merry Christmas!

VOTE: Carcalilly

Ok last one... wats your history like with Carca?

I'l tell you why I started there after the game.

Sell me on Dunns if you can??

Lots of questions asking others to give their takes on things while also not giving many takes himself. There's hardly any follow-up either.

Most of his ISO is just fluff or him asking basic questions. He does give out a few reads once in a while, but he doesn't flesh them out too much either. There's certainly nothing I'd town-read him for in his ISO, and combined with Manatee's lack-luster ISO the slot looks pretty bad as a whole, but there's one thing in his ISO I really can't buy coming from town...

[Snowman]

The things I've already pointed out about Alonzo's play are bad enough as it is, but what I really want to talk about is his progression from tr-ing to sr-ing me, because it's entirely disingenuous.

I just Dived snowman to see if I could find any discrepancies in his progression onto me, but snowy has a pretty driven town! Iso.

This was what Alonzo posted earlier last night before the worst replaced in. Take note that he apparently A)Dived through my ISO and B)Couldn't find any discrepancies in my progression on him (as implied by his concluding remark). Which makes no sense when considering what he posted after the worst's replace in:

@TW dunno if u caught up yet, but SM would turn up and vote me out of the blue for undisclosed reasons

First of all, I literally wrote two paragraphs just before my vote summarizing what was scum-indicative from both Manatee's and Alonzo's play, so me voting him "out of the blue" for "undisclosed reasons" is already disingenuous, but it's impossible for him to miss the ten dozen times I pointed out scum-AI things from Manatee's play as well because he said he went for my ISO specifically looking for discrepancies on my progression and came to the conclusion I had a "driven town ISO", so that further invalidates this whole "voting him out of the blue" bullshit.

encourage Perf to do the same

Again, never voted him for "undisclosed reasons" -- that's just a straight-up lie. And I asked Performer specifically to vote because he was already sr-ing Alonzo, or at the very least sr-ing some of the posts he made, so it would be reasonable to expect him to vote Alonzo with me.

then dissapear like a fart in the wind when I called him out on it

Called me out on what? That I didn't flesh out a case THAT I LITERALLY SAID I WAS GOING TO FLESH OUT LATER? Like, I know I didn't get to it as soon as I said I would and I feel pretty bad about that, but for Alonzo to act like he caught onto something is just entirely bullshit.

Even if we assume that Alonzo was convinced enough by the worst's dive through like 1/6 of the game to do a complete 180 on me, which is already hard enough to believe as is, there is literally no way he could dive through my ISO and not find any discrepancies on my Manatee/Alonzo progression yet a few pages later claim that my vote came "completely out of the blue". He was clearly anticipating that the worst's case would be convincing to steer a lynch towards me and hopped on my wagon early, not caring at all that he'd have to spout complete bullshit to try to justify this sudden flip.

[Snowman]

So to recap, we've got Manatee who pretty much just coasted all of D1 and jumping back and forth from wagon to wagon with little rhyme or reason. He makes a few attempts to try to mirror his town meta but on the whole it more closely resembles his scum meta. And then we got Alonzo who cares more about inquiring about other's reads than making many of his own and just overall active lurking for the most part. His progression of his read on me doesn't make any sense at all and practically contradicts itself, and I really just can't buy his reasons for voting me at all, especially considering he knew I had my reasons for scum-reading his slot yet still can't comprehend why I'd vote him.

[Snowman]

Meant to do this yesterday, but I got caught up in other things, so here's my case on the Manatee/Alonzo slot,

split across multiple posts for your convenience.

Did you miss this or something? I finished it all in one go, but for readability sake I decided to split it across multiple posts instead of jamming it into one giant wall.

[Snowman]

Nice shade btw. Everyone knows it's entirely impossible to copy/paste from multiple quote boxes.

[Snowman]

I'm not even sr-ing for "erratic play". I mean there's one point I made related to that but that's it. And I highly doubt you can't be "erratic" as scum anyhow.

[Snowman]

In comparison to his last scum games? Yeah, a little. But even ignoring that your/Manatee's play this game is still pretty scum-motivated.

[Snowman]

Yeah. Couldn't find any major differences.

[Snowman]

You could've just waited...

[Snowman]

SM would turn up and vote me out of the blue for undisclosed reasons

Explain this to me.

[Snowman]

snowman what do you think of the dunn wagon

Its decent. But I'm more bothered by Manatee/Alonzo's play than Dunnstral's.

[Snowman]

Felt like you were lining up a hatchet job on me, and again that was made before you actually did as you said you would.

Still could be a hatchet job, manatee dude had zero votes when I joined so anyone SRing the slot wasn't pushing, and scum didn't consider the slot mislynch viable til I joined it would seem..

That doesn't explain why you thought I was voting you for no reason at all...

[Snowman]

I just Dived snowman to see if I could find any discrepancies in his progression onto me, but snowy has a pretty driven town! Iso.

This implies that you didn't find any discrepancies in my progression on Manatee.

@TW dunno if u caught up yet, but SM would turn up and vote me out of the blue for undisclosed reasons

This implies the exact opposite, and also doesn't make sense considering I did "disclose" my reasons in the two posts prior to my actual vote on you.

[Snowman]

Manatee in reference to the Manatee/Alonzo slot overall.

[Snowman]

I was busy with work the past couple of days. Been catching up on the past dozen or so pages last night / this morning.

[Snowman]

Don't see the scum-motivation behind Almost's Neo claim, especially considering his VT claim D1. Even if he was poisoned and wanted to take someone down with him, A)Why choose Carca of all people B)Why not claim cop and site a hard guilty on her via cop C)Why backtrack from pushing Carca when he supposedly came out to get Carca lynched D)Why claim a role that's virtually identical to VC. Can't really see her coming out as scum to try and lynch Carca just to shift directions soon after.

[Snowman]

Lady's claim really confuses me. It comes completely out of the blue, which on one hand is kind of towny but if Carca is scum I could easily see her claiming early to justify why she defended her partner. Wouldn't be great play but she is a noob overall so it's not too out there imo. Apparently Lady thought she was a watcher instead of a tracker, which is questionable but let's roll with it for a moment. Why would she watch a VT claim, even if she was tr'ing Carca? Scum wouldn't kill a VT claim, and the only town PR I could think of that would actually target Carca is Neo/Cop, but I don't see much purpose in catching one of those. And her "not believing A50's claim" and thinking "Carca's a VT" doesn't jive well with post #2011. If she did think Carca was VT then she'd have reason to suspect Almost is lying and claim when she's at her highest risk of being lynched instead of when the wagon's already dying down. Also don't like how she's all like "my mistake was stupid -- you can crucify me for it" yet straight after she gets defensive and says her actions don't have any scum-motivation.

[Snowman]

I guess we'll see what happens when Carca/her replacement shows up, whether they maintain they're VT or claim a pr instead. Personally I could see her fake-claiming VT for towncred -- it was playing to her town meta and had her tr'ed by a large number of players, and early claims in general are tr'ed more often than not. I didn't think she anticipated being outed by a Neo, and if it wasn't for that she could've rode on her claim for a while. At the same time I could see her gambiting to avoid a nk as town, but overall I thought her ISO was more scummy than not so I'm not inclined to believe that.