Newbie 1903 | Stuff I Found Online Vii | Over

[Thespio]

@RCU, the game i evaluated you on was the one you played as scum with Jones, do you see any similarities between jones scum and this jones?

[Thespio]

@jones, idk why you havent replied to this but im seriously concerned you dropped off the face of the earth when being questioned. Anyone have a read on him?

[Roo]

@jones, idk why you havent replied to this but im seriously concerned you dropped off the face of the earth when being questioned. Anyone have a read on him?

Just did a quick reread of Jones, and my read on him his still pretty middle of the road but leans town. Him changing his vote from Teacher to Overkill feels authentic.

But I'm not really sure why he just buys Overkill's claim at PR soft claim to try and bait a night kill. He was voting for overkill but then just quickly believes him. And as you've pointed out, he hasn't really addressed why his thoughts on overkill changed. Only saying in 323 that you are scummier. This certainly peaks my interest in him a bit.

What I'm having trouble with though is if he is scum why would he try and move the vote off of overkill, who he was voting for? Because if they were both scum, I don't think Jones would have cast that vote for Overkill when the momentum was going towards an Overkill lynch. And if only Jones is scum of, why did he abandon Overkill so fast and push on Thespio? That to me would feel like a bad strategy, where if he just stayed the course on Overkill, there still would be an Overkill lynch with probably no heat on him.

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 1.11

How do foxes know where to pounce when it is winter and their prey is under a meter of snow?

Also contains a cute video.

---

Lynching

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Thespio

(2): skitter30, naturalbreadcrumbs

0verki11

(2): Roo, teacher

LCpl Jones

(1): Thespio

teacher

(1): 0verki11

Not Voting

(3): LCpl Jones, RCEnigma, snowbeast

Deadline:

(expired on 2018-12-10 15:00:00).

Mod notes:

Keep it fun!

skitter30 is V/LA Friday-Saturday.
0verki11 is V/LA until Sunday.

[Plotinus]

snowbeast² has been prodded. They have (expired on 2018-12-10 03:15:00) to post before I start looking for a replacement because the timer runs slower on weekends.

[Thespio]

@jones, idk why you havent replied to this but im seriously concerned you dropped off the face of the earth when being questioned. Anyone have a read on him?

Just did a quick reread of Jones, and my read on him his still pretty middle of the road but leans town. Him changing his vote from Teacher to Overkill feels authentic.

But I'm not really sure why he just buys Overkill's claim at PR soft claim to try and bait a night kill. He was voting for overkill but then just quickly believes him. And as you've pointed out, he hasn't really addressed why his thoughts on overkill changed. Only saying in 323 that you are scummier. This certainly peaks my interest in him a bit.

What I'm having trouble with though is if he is scum why would he try and move the vote off of overkill, who he was voting for? Because if they were both scum, I don't think Jones would have cast that vote for Overkill when the momentum was going towards an Overkill lynch. And if only Jones is scum of, why did he abandon Overkill so fast and push on Thespio? That to me would feel like a bad strategy, where if he just stayed the course on Overkill, there still would be an Overkill lynch with probably no heat on him.

There’s a game I’m looking at where he played scum and he pushed otherscum to distance. I genuinely think he might have the same general strat, which is why I was asking RCE because now that game they were scum together. Figure they should read each other well enough. Anyways, they planned it, scum jumped on their partner and then when town paused he jumped off opurtunisticly.

I also see merit for town to lean on OK. He is all about opportunism, his vote for teacher was what peaked my interest, but when I look at who would be his partner I see Jones fitting the bill.

[RCEnigma]

Meta generally isn't my forte. Jones was very careful about his votes and vote placements to avoid pressure. When he decided to buss me we were already in a tight spot and iirc never voted me day 1.

In order for Jones to be Scum and buss his partner here he would have to be confident his partner could get out of the Lynch and with multiple slots threatening to hammer it didn't look that way.

Overall I think Roo is on the money. Jones doesn't have much to lose as scum if he let's Skitter and teacher push the Lynch over.

[Thespio]

Meta generally isn't my forte. Jones was very careful about his votes and vote placements to avoid pressure. When he decided to buss me we were already in a tight spot and iirc never voted me day 1.

In order for Jones to be Scum and buss his partner here he would have to be confident his partner could get out of the Lynch and with multiple slots threatening to hammer it didn't look that way.

Overall I think Roo is on the money. Jones doesn't have much to lose as scum if he let's Skitter and teacher push the Lynch over.

How do you feel about his flip onto me because I’m ‘scummier’?

[Thespio]

Meta generally isn't my forte. Jones was very careful about his votes and vote placements to avoid pressure. When he decided to buss me we were already in a tight spot and iirc never voted me day 1.

In order for Jones to be Scum and buss his partner here he would have to be confident his partner could get out of the Lynch and with multiple slots threatening to hammer it didn't look that way.

Overall I think Roo is on the money. Jones doesn't have much to lose as scum if he let's Skitter and teacher push the Lynch over.

Also, I’ll keep in mind you don’t like Meta reads, how did him bussing you turn out? I believe you didn’t ditch the votes and died, gameplay got him killed. You don’t think In a game with scarce mafia presence, where jones is flipping on convenience, even though they have an established meta of bussing then flipping because some other person gets picked out as ‘scummier’ is even similar? I’ll leave that there because meta fights are boring.

I do want to know, based on the lack of counter wagon on OK until now, do you feel this is Indicitive of an active mafia?

[RCEnigma]

The bussing was inconsequential, we lost due to misplaying a mass claim. Mostly me, Jones was effective at keeping town guessing up to that point. Then it was simply a mechanical loss from the setup and checks.

His flip is warranted, I felt the same way.

[Thespio]

Ok well when it comes to it, if you flip me I would reccomend you look at Jones. I’m waiting for their responses.

[LCpl Jones]

@jones, idk why you havent replied to this but im seriously concerned you dropped off the face of the earth when being questioned. Anyone have a read on him?

You know what, I think I'll leave you another few hours so you can practice patience. The fact I didn't answer might have been more to do with the fact that it was 4am when you posted that post :/

[teacher]

its been a few hours...... (not intended as shade, more as a joke).

I am seeing definite survivalism in Thespio's burst of energy, but also some townpoints. Im reading back up but am around if anyone wants to chat. I should be more available today than normal (my wife is back and has taken the kids!)

[teacher]

(Question for the IC/SEs: It's okay to trust that someone talking about someone else's meta is always telling the truth right? Since that's supposed to be public record and all.)

no, they might think you wont' bother to check their work so just lie about it

like it's public record but that doesn't mean they're representing it accurately

Just wanted to add my IC-bound to be honest voice to this, and on meta generally. Meta is not reliable as an initial matter, because players (including me) try to consciously play against it. Then add the the fact that a cold read of a game lacks the atmospheric feel or gestalt - like how this game has felt slightly rudderless and a tad dragging since the 0verki11 wagon lost momentum, a reader wouldnt know that. Third, add the fact that different people reading the same text can interpret it differently, like RCE and me with the Thespio's D2 comment.

Dont take this as a knock on meta. I do it, and I rely on it. The person who one last year's prize for best scumhunter says its a valuable tool. But I think those caveats are important in determining what weight to give it. I do it to try to check if someone is playing a significantly different personality or is playing at a lower analysis level than they are capable of.

Finally to distill down to your question, run with Reagan - somewhat trust, but verify. If you are using "reported" meta information in your reads, make them at least show their work and provide a post or two so that you can see if you read it the same way (see the third point in the first graph). Sometimes players will say they have metaed people just for the effort towncred. I dont always do this myself, but if you arent sure what to do, this could be the best way to get AI info on two slots - the meta-er and the meta-ee.

[teacher]

your order of lynching is overkill/me/snow/thespio. Pardon me for being self-interested, but why am I right after overkill? Your case and RCE's case was on snow first, and you made the case for an overkill/snow team. I'm not too sure why I would be next after overkill.

This is actually meta, at least for snowy. It has been strengthened by the possibility that slot gets replaced and alot more sortable D2. I posted yesterday requesting a readslist pretty soon after this. Please post one, for all slots.

[teacher]

@Thespio, talk to me about why you have essentially the same number of posts in the last two days since you became a wagon as you did in the game before then.

[teacher]

You don’t think In a game with scarce mafia presence, where jones is flipping on convenience, even though they have an established meta of bussing then flipping because some other person gets picked out as ‘scummier’ is even similar?

OK, so I see this narrative trying to help you get the board off you back to 0verki11, but then take it an apply it a could days earlier -- Jonesy pushed me most of the day, and then flipped to 0verki11 because he was scummier.

Wouldnt the bus be the first thing, not the vote that provided serious momentum? Are you saying townreads cant evolve? This argument, which I liked on the initial read, doesnt hold up for me.

[teacher]

Here's my read on Teacher

I assume you meant Thespio.

Id actaully like to you have you read me please.

[LCpl Jones]

yeah, I meant thespio
I'll do it tonight

[teacher]

Here's my read on Teacher

I assume you meant Thespio.

Id actually like to you have you read me please.

Or Skitter TBH - I only see an aside on their intro.

My compromise pool remains the same. I would very much love for the wagon on 0verki11 to return, or to go to crumbs. I will go to Thespio tomorrow morning if the wagon hasnt moved to one I prefer. I will provide the hammer for just about any slot if needed to push a lynch through.

PEdit: Thx Jonesy. Have a good one.

[LCpl Jones]

Meta generally isn't my forte. Jones was very careful about his votes and vote placements to avoid pressure. When he decided to buss me we were already in a tight spot and iirc never voted me day 1.

In order for Jones to be Scum and buss his partner here he would have to be confident his partner could get out of the Lynch and with multiple slots threatening to hammer it didn't look that way.

Overall I think Roo is on the money. Jones doesn't have much to lose as scum if he let's Skitter and teacher push the Lynch over.

How do you feel about his flip onto me because I’m ‘scummier’?

nice misrepresentation. completely ignoring a full case made on you. I definitely just got up and decided you were scummier and flipped onto you.

[LCpl Jones]

I don't know where you get that from because its not - its your utter reversal that is scummy
I don't know where you get that from because its not - its your utter reversal that is scummy
because I reread you as I said I would. If you are talking about me scumreading teacher, I think a vote is pressure.

keep obv!scumming please

So your entire case is pre-overkill, but im scummier now? you didnt think it was scummy when i was questioning them then? but because i felt they are town after clashing that makes me scum to you? what made over kill less scummy or me more scummy?

are you reading teacher as town or scum? Why are you in a different place? how did you get there with little to no activity, and no questions for teacher? are you reading RCU as town or scum? Just to let you know Im evaluating you based on 2 of your prior games, 1 scum, 1 town. Im curious to see how you compare.

I read RCE as fairly strong town, given his meta and behaviour
teacher, is more difficult for me, but I'll have a read tonight and see what I think
his play got a lot better from my initial scumread on him
I don't see why you feel the need to call my activity low when I have more posts than 3 other people. Your scum case is simply grasping at straws
what made you more scummy is already set out in 314 and 316

I found overkill scummy. But at the moment I'm conflicted as to whether I believe his claim or not. So I'm not willing to lynch him just now.

[LCpl Jones]

@jones, idk why you havent replied to this but im seriously concerned you dropped off the face of the earth when being questioned. Anyone have a read on him?

Just did a quick reread of Jones, and my read on him his still pretty middle of the road but leans town. Him changing his vote from Teacher to Overkill feels authentic.

But I'm not really sure why he just buys Overkill's claim at PR soft claim to try and bait a night kill. He was voting for overkill but then just quickly believes him. And as you've pointed out, he hasn't really addressed why his thoughts on overkill changed. Only saying in 323 that you are scummier. This certainly peaks my interest in him a bit.

What I'm having trouble with though is if he is scum why would he try and move the vote off of overkill, who he was voting for? Because if they were both scum, I don't think Jones would have cast that vote for Overkill when the momentum was going towards an Overkill lynch. And if only Jones is scum of, why did he abandon Overkill so fast and push on Thespio? That to me would feel like a bad strategy, where if he just stayed the course on Overkill, there still would be an Overkill lynch with probably no heat on him.

There’s a game I’m looking at where he played scum and he pushed otherscum to distance. I genuinely think he might have the same general strat, which is why I was asking RCE because now that game they were scum together. Figure they should read each other well enough. Anyways, they planned it, scum jumped on their partner and then when town paused he jumped off opurtunisticly.

I also see merit for town to lean on OK. He is all about opportunism, his vote for teacher was what peaked my interest, but when I look at who would be his partner I see Jones fitting the bill.

ah yes, so I would jump on my partner on day 1 when there was a serious wagon on him but he wasn't near getting lynched, meaning he would be closer to getting lynched seriously
and you seem to ignore that that game had a massclaim + RCE nearly got lynched d2 anyway. while this is day 1
or conversely assuming you are right, you are therefore scum because I am bussing you

[LCpl Jones]

@Thespio, talk to me about why you have essentially the same number of posts in the last two days since you became a wagon as you did in the game before then.

^

[Thespio]

@jones, my guy, your case was that I pushed RCE, then I stopped, then when OK posted his vote for teacher I moved my attention over there. That’s what your case is with a lot of fluff.

With your meta, and I’ll link to the post, you do the exact same flip you are doing here.

Also you literal posted you flipped because I’m scummier.

@town, This late in the day I don’t foresee RCE, Jones, crumbs, or skitter changing. Jones seems to take this very personal, making comments that don’t seem to add to his case but just call me scum. Crumbs just seems like they up and vanished.RCE doesn’t seem to be evaluating anyone else, and skitters V/LA don’t leave a lot of time. If it comes to it hammer me. Then look at Jones. His meta does fit, and his flip seems to be gut driven. I think with teacher active and Jones having not actually voted yet there’s enough active to do so. Ill be working on a project today and will only have a little time to check up on you all.