Jester Nightless- Michael Scott

[Jingle]

Welcome to hydra topic: The Office Edition.

[Auro]

Well hello there Date Mike!
Jingle, keep hosting Jester games, I love them xD

Anyway, wanted to note here that I'm actually suspecting Nancy of being scum -- she was conspicuously off the Yes Mafia wagon, and seems to abhor the idea of being lynched as an "obvtown".

TW seems like the Jester, Kent&Sain are prolly town because of their slip.

[volxen]

Yeah TW is definitely not a good lynch, I think there is a high likelihood of him being either scum or jester.

Interesting theory about Nancy. You've been advocating for lynching obvtown in the thread -- aside from our own slot, who else would you be comfortable lynching today?

I think the challenge here is distinguishing scum from jester. Are there certain players that you could see as either being town or scum, but definitely NOT jester? I think in terms of reads, that's the most important thing at the moment -- identifying players who are definitely not the jester. This is my first time playing this type of game mode, so I'm not really sure what strategy the jester will be applying here. At the most basic level, there is the assumption that the jester would want to get heavily scumread to help them get lynched, but then again the jester might anticipate this, and actually try to town it up to throw everyone off (especially since, as you suggested yourself, lynching obvtown is actually a really good strategy in this game, especially since half of the scumteam has been eliminated). So it's very possible that the jester is among the "obvtown" players as opposed to the more null or scummy players.

So who do you think is

legitimate

"obvtown" in this game, or at least "obvnotjester"? Those are the players that we need to identify.

[volxen]

Should we test your Nancy theory by trying to hard push for her lynch today? If Nancy is scum and we get lynched today, she might be able to avoid a lynch on day 3 by continuing to establish herself as "obvtown" and making the argument that the group should lynch someone who is "obvnotjester" yet also "not obvtown" (her reasoning for lynching us today as opposed to herself).

So if Nancy is scum, if she takes us out today, she just has to avoid that "obvtown" lynch on day 3. Then on day 4 the jester suicides, and at that point the game reverts back to the normal "lynch the scummiest player" routine, and she can just coast on her "obvtown" status and win the game.

So the point is, if Nancy is scum and we get lynched today, that is going to seriously jeopardize our chances of winning this game, as I don't know that we can trust this group to "follow our wishes" and auto lynch Nancy on day 3. All she really has to do as scum on day 3 is convince the group that lynching the most obvtown player is a bad strategy, and identify a player that is "obvnotjester" but also "not obvtown" and push for that players lynch (as she is doing to us right now).

I don't think we should advocate for our own lynch today, I think we need to stay in the game longer.

[Michael Scott]

Actually, it's interesting because both {Kent and Sain, Nancy} very quickly came to the conclusion that we are "obvnotjester", but they both are claiming to believe that we could be scum. I don't think there is anything in our ISO that screams "obvnotjester", so it's a bit strange to me that both of them are heavily scumreading us, but they are both so confident that we aren't the jester at the same time. What are the odds that two different townies would both come to that exact same conclusion about our slot, and so quickly to boot? I think it's a lot easier to rule someone out as not being the jester as scum than it as town. As a townie, you have to consider the possibility that any other player is either town, scum, or jester. In particular, as a townie you have to distinguish between behavior that is town-indicative vs scum-indicative vs jester-indicative, which is not always easy. As scum you already know who all of the scum are, so you just have to distinguish the obvtown players from the players that have the potential to be jester. In general it's easier to distinguish town-indicative behavior vs jester-indicative behavior than it is to distinguish town-indicative behavior vs scum-indicative behavior vs jester-indicative behavior, so scum has a distinct advantage over town in ruling out people as not being the jester.

So the point is, if one of them is scum, then they sincerely believe that we are town as opposed to jester, and there scum knowledge is helping them to come to this correct conclusion about our slot. I'm starting to think it's highly unlikely that both {Kent and Sain, Nancy} are town, because I don't see how they can both be so confident about us not being the jester but at the same time are heavily scumreading us.

[Michael Scott]

^ The above post was written by Date Mike (Volxen)

[Auro]

Nancy's convinced we're not jester because we were aggressively pushing her wagon -- it's unexpected for a jester to campaign for two other lynches on successive days, so I can see where she's coming from. The biggest reason I'm scumreading Nancy is because of her push against lynching her, and the lack of vote in D1.

It's actually fine if we get lynched as long as town follows our plan afterwards -- something I'll personally iron out with the rest of the slots in case we do. Our ending post would be "KILL NANCY, TRUST US" in caps. If she fights it too much in D3, that makes her more scumspect.

My reads list I posted are my actual thoughts, save Nancy's green. What do you think? What do you make of my last two posts?

[volxen]

Given this 1 vs 2 battle we are in against {Kent and Sain, Nancy}, I have a lot of concerns about us being lynched today. Simply put.... I don't trust this town to necessarily follow our "dying wishes" and auto lynch Nancy on day 3 for being obvtown.

Notice how Nancy has STILL yet to directly answer your question ("Do you agree to be lynched on day 3 following our lynch on day 2"). She has done nothing but dance around the whole issue and keeps reinforcing the idea that we are flailing scum, should not be listened to, and should be lynched today. The irony is that even if town!Nancy believes this, there is no legitimate reason for her to be opposed to her own lynch on day 3. She has had NUMEROUS opportunities to simply respond with, "fine, if you flip green today, then we can lynch me on day 3"), but she is completely ignoring you on this.

If Nancy is town, I would expect her to have a backup plan for day 3 in case she is wrong about us. But she doesn't -- if she is town, then she is literally approaching this game day with 100% confidence that we are scum, and therefore doesn't need to think about day 3 following our lynch on day 2. Scumreading us is one thing, but why does town!Nancy absolutely refuse to discuss ANY sort of plan for day 3? Not only has she refused to comment on whether she would agree to her own lynch on day 3, she also hasn’t mentioned who she would prefer to lynch on day 3. This very well could be scum!Nancy wanting to keep her options open by not committing to anything too early.

Meanwhile, Kent and Sain is challenging your entire premise of "we should lynch obvtown players until the jester suicides", which in and of itself is highly suspect. It's as if they don't understand the basic strategy of this game -- avoid lynching the jester at all costs on days 1-3, and the best way to do that is to lynch OBVtown players until the Jester suicides. Instead, he is insisting on playing this game of "let's lynch scummy players that are obvnotjester", which is an incredibly risky game to be playing, because it’s a valid jester strategy to purposefully make yourself look scummy/sketchy.

In short, two different players are 1) claiming 100% confidence that we aren’t the jester and 2) claiming effectively 99.99% confidence that we are scum. I could see this maybe coming from one townie, but TWO? I just don’t buy it, that two different townies could be reading us so horrifically wrong and think we are scum but at the same time have absolute confidence that we aren’t the jester. If they are town they should be showing more caution towards our slot on the chance that we are the jester, but that isn’t happening. And like I said before, it’s much easier for scum to rule someone out as not being jester than it is for town to do so due to scum knowledge that town doesn’t have.

It’s like a 90%+ certainty that {Kent and Sain, Nancy} are not both town. I’m assuming it’s unlikely that Nancy is jester, considering she could have just sat back and agreed with your strategy of lynching obvtown players. I could see Kent and Sain potentially being the jester though – he hard pushes for our lynch today, and then our green flip on day 2 makes him look scummier on day 3 and possibly helps to setup his own lynch.

If are you looking to get Nancy to agree to her own lynch on day 3 following our green flip on day 2, I don’t think your going to get that. You are going to ultimately have to convince the rest of the town to lynch Nancy against her own will on day 3, which I think is going to be difficult to pull off if we aren’t around, because we have yet to see the town collectively embrace the strategy of “lynch the most obvtown players on day 2 and day 3”, even though it is absolutely the optimal strategy for town at this point in the game.

[volxen]

Although if K&S are jester, then they are faking their scumread of us, because jester and scum actually have a common goal at the moment: don’t allow scum to get lynched today. If the jester cannot get themselves lynched today, then the optimal strategy from their point of view is to make sure an obvtown player gets lynched. If scum gets lynched today then town wins, so neither the jester nor scum can afford for that to happen.

I guess it all could make sense from the perspective of jester!K&S. He secretly thinks we are obvious town, but he is putting on a façade of scumreading us, to make himself look scummy on day 3 for pushing us so hard on day 2. What are your thoughts on this? I’m thinking at this point, based on the current state of the game, the jester realizes it’s extremely unlikely that they are getting lynched today, so they need to take action today to help guarantee that they are lynched on day 3. So we should be definitely looking at players deliberately doing sketchy/questionable things today.

[volxen]

If no one steps in and seriously tries to stop our lynch from going through, then that means the jester is townreading us (and likewise that scum is townreading us as well).
Maybe we should let this play out for a bit? Sit at L-1 for a while, and see if anyone tries to get another wagon going? Because unless the jester is absolutely confident that we are town, they shouldn’t be OK with our lynch.

Likewise scum shouldn’t be OK with our lynch unless they are absolutely confident that we are town, but the consensus at this point is that we are very unlikely to be the jester.
Do you think we have enough content in our ISO to be considered obvtown from the jester’s perspective?

[Michael Scott]

We shout out our PT posts on our suspicion of Nancy being scum.

[Michael Scott]

Yikes. I'm sorry, Volxen. Jingle, you should modkill the slot -- I didn't post it to conftown our slot, I posted after Nancy was saying I was lying about having those posts to prove that I did deliberate over her scumminess.

I skimmed the rules and didn't find it when I posted, just when Kent pointed it out -- sorry! If you're gonna blacklist/ban, it's the Auro head which did it, not Volxen.

[Michael Scott]

I don't think modkilling compromises the game, because I was apparently at L-1 and didn't hammer anyway, meaning I'm not Jester.

[Jingle]

blacklist/ban

I have blacklisted 2 players from games I run. Both players subsequently ate site permabans.

Suffice to say, as long as you want to play in my games and I don't think you will negatively impact other people's experiences, you are always welcome in my games.

With that said, sometimes I will run games that I don't think particular players would enjoy, so I might refuse /ins on those grounds (or at least ask them to reconsider), and if someone /ins to a game with someone who doesn't want to play with them I always give preference to the first player to sign up.

Basically, I'm more than happy to have you guys in any of my future games.

[Auro]

Jingle, modkilling us also makes it slightly unfair for the Jester because he now only has one chance to get lynched -- unless you allow him to be killed D5 too, I guess?

[Auro]

Oh, you did resume day 2 -- nevermind, sweet! That's the best.