Newbie 1908 [Game Over]

[rosterfoster]

I really think Roster is scum. He looks like he’s looking for a lynch not scum.

I'll be around for another hour or so, so if that's what you all decide to do I will switch to it if necessary (i.e. if Munch, Flavour and You all think Pvt is more scummy then I would feel obliged to go with this.)

I still think we should Lynch Vivit though.

It does look like we're unlikely to get claims unless Vivit or Urist come online though :/

[rosterfoster]

I quoted the wrong post there sorry. Meant to quote Nauci.

[Munchmellow]

Like with this many people around we could viably switch to PvtUrist, I think, since the vote on him isn't from or on anyone who seems to be around right now

I don't know, deadline is in 4hours. I don't know if all of us (who you counted for Urist lynch) will even be online in that time. It's 2am here and I'm gonna go to bed soon. Will check again before I go to bed, but if vicit doesn't claim I'll hammer.

[Munchmellow]

That's it.
VOTE: vivit

[Nauci]

That's fair. Fingers crossed!

[Nauci]

Hopefully vivit isn't a TPR

[skitter30]

Flip when i'm at a pc in ~1 hour

[skitter30]

VOTE COUNT 1.15, FINAL

vivit (5)

- pvturist, rosterfoster, nikk, nauci, munchmellow

flavor leaf (1)

- komodo

rosterfoster (1)

- flavor leaf

pvturist (1)

- vivit

not voting (1)

- xwing

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-01-01 21:24:00)

mod notes:

- xwing is vla on weekends, and until 1/3
-

[skitter30]

vivit has been hammered! they were a

Spoiler:

mafia goon

It is now night 1. Deadline for night actions is in: (expired on 2019-01-03 20:00:00)
You may submit them by PM or PT, if you have one

Per rule 11, because komodo and xwing have not posted in the 24 hours before dayend, they must respond to the night-start pm within the next 24 hours or be replaced; night will be extended in this case until all slots are filled.

I can shorten night if everyone asks me to do so - all players, even those without a night action, must tell me they want night to be accelerated in order for this to happen

[skitter30]

please note that since i'm a little busy tonight daystart may be delayed by up to ~4 hours

[skitter30]

munchmellow has died! they were a

Spoiler:

vanilla townie

day2 begins!

VOTE COUNT 2.0

Not Voting (7)

- rosterfoster, nikk, Komodo, pvturist, nauci, xwing, Flavor Leaf

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-01-10 23:00:00)

mod notes:

- xwing is vla on weekends
- nauci will be v/la until saturday
- i hope this deadline is a little more amneable to people in europe?
- fixed the deadline
-

[Nauci]

Aww, sorry Munch

Good job everyone!

I am having a bit of a crisis of faith about my mafia skills after Krazy's Starcraft themed game so I'm mega tilted right now Like, I was way too forgiving about the many times Vivit tried to over-explain every action, which is claaaaaaaassic scum play. Also, I'm very busy with some IRL stuff with deadlines, so not going to be as high activity through Saturday.

I think that Flavor Leaf is almost definitely town because it would be nuts for him to openly and repeatedly defend his scum partner like that throughout the day while essentially only contributing towards a vanity wagon on Roster.

I also rescind my town read on Komodo; Komodo and Nikk are my primary suspects to shake out for the day.

[PvtUrist]

Aww, sorry Munch

I also rescind my town read on Komodo; Komodo and Nikk are my primary suspects to shake out for the day.

I bet they are. Post walls soon.

[Flavor Leaf]

Hmm, interesting kill. I was going to say Munch was likely scum for hammering.

I’m a little unsure now.

I don’t think Pvuritist, Roster, or Nauci make sense as bud votes.

Maybe Nauci’s does, but she’s been playing very townie, and I don’t see the point as scum to state that town read on me. I expected scum to push me for that and have to defend myself for my defense over Vivit wasn’t scummy, so...well, that’s out of the way.

Nikk, Komodo, or xwing is probably where I’m looking at for today.

[PvtUrist]

First of possibly many walls, apologies beforehand.

Old post by themselves are outdated, but new info gives certainty to them. Personally I feel the early phase to be clearer and easier to read allignments, as there aren't as much of "rose-tinted glass" responses as there are now.

Proof why I pressure vivit (and kept pressure when she failed to respond personally);

Spoiler: 32

My reasoning is that it feels like nooby scum defense.

Experienced

scum wouldn't be that defensive off the bat, but neither would experienced town. If Salamander is savvy enough not to act so defensively as scum, he's savvy enough not to act so retaliatory as town.

First ping of the thread, vivit shades Salamander/Nikk as "nooby scum", despite her post meaning "nooby/inexperienced null". She emphasises on "experienced", placing my attention on Nauci, xwing and FL if vivit was to flip scum. So far I've cleared xwing and FL (yes FL, I'll explain that later) which leaves Nauci.

Spoiler: 34

Counteraccusing someone for making a wild read on day 1 seems a little suspicious, that's all.

34 solidify's my scum read on vivit.

Spoiler: 67

For now, the only one on my scumdar is actually vivit. I feel he is pushing his Salamander- scum theory a bit too strongly. Like he wants us to jump on that wagon and while we are debating who is scumier - Roster or Salamander, he can stir things up but stays safely under the radar. It's just a thought and a weak vibe, but it is there.

It's not really a theory; there's not enough to go off of right now; I was just speculating based on the rhetorical decisions of Salamander and Roster. It was clear (to me) that Roster was looking for a facetious excuse for a day-one random vote, which I

suppose

could be considered scummy, but his accusation seemed to me to be less characteristic of Town or scum and more characteristic of someone who doesn't take the game of Mafia super seriously (and by "not super seriously" I mean "a 7 rather than an 8 or 9 on a scale where 1 is Lulzy McShitposter and 10 actually gets into character and attempts to realistically roleplay the life-or-death situations represented in the game.")

With all of that in mind, Salamander's response to Roster seemed a bit like a kneejerk OMGUS (but only a bit, and reading back over the posts it's less pronounced than I initially thought it was).

It might seem like I was pushing that idea really hard because I made a lot of posts about it, but part of that's because I'm not used to being unable to edit or delete my posts -- you'll notice that I made posts

#27

and

#28

in very quick succession: I had forgotten to put forth my hunch and put in my hunchvote. Then, since it turned out that I had not formatted my vote properly, I had to make a third post to correct my vote (

#30

). Once I had done

that

, Komodo made post

#31

challenging my suspicions, so I elaborated on my suspicions a bit more in

#32

. Then Flavor Leaf asked a question about my reasoning in post

#33

and I answered.

In total, I made five posts about my salamander hunch, so I can see why it might seem like I was pushing it, but the first three were me failing to get my vote out properly, the fourth was elaborating on my suspicions when those suspicions were challenged, and fifth was an answer to a direct question.

tl;dr: it's just a hunch and I don't even think I was pushing it as hard as it might have looked I was.

Spews nonsense and takes attention off of herself.

Spoiler: 94

Reads so far:

Rosterfoster

: standard RVS tactics, no real reads.

Salamander

: OMGUS counteraccusation against standard RVS tactics = scum read. Not strong, but stronger than anyone else's at this point. I may remove my vote if he comes in with a good defensive argument before lynchtime, but as is, his posts early in the thread are definitely the scummiest so far.

Nauci

: Made an off-topic post about masons, either a funpost for the lulz or a scumpost for the derail (I'm much more inclined to think the former.) Otherwise, strong town reads.

Flavor Leaf

: Town reads, but pretty quick to clear suspicion on people.

xwing

: Clearly wants to get a move on with the game. Rushing to get out of the early game is normally a scum read, but he has explicitly stated he doesn't like RVS as a personal preference. He seems like he's still getting the hang of Mafia (this has been commented on in past threads) so this definitely doesn't seem like a scum rush. When considering votes, he thinks clearly and critically. Likely town.

Komodo

: Seems to be doing more listening and asking questions than pushing ideas, so I'm guessing town.

Jim Hawkins

: Awfully quiet, so no direct reads either way, but lurking is itself a scum read. His post and login history (which at this writing say that he made his last post about 20 hours ago and logged off about 10 hours after that) indicate that he had chances to post but did not take them

Munchmellow

: Not many posts, not much to go on, but a bit more active than Jim Hawkins, so lurker vibes are weaker.
Keeping my vote on Salamander for now.

Nauci

: Made an off-topic post about masons, either a funpost for the lulz or a scumpost for the derail (I'm much more inclined to think the former.) Otherwise, strong town reads.

Further proves that my initial scum reads (vivit!Nauci) were correct. There's 3 possible reasons of interactions here; TvT (town!vivit believes town!Nauci because her fluff is impressive?), SvT (scum!vivit pocketing town!Nauci), or SvS (scum!vivit white painting scum!Nauci).

As vivit flipped scum, TvT is obviously not the case here.

Too piss-poor effort to be SvT pocket, that leaves only SvS as the most probably outcome.

[PvtUrist]

Current reads;
{Yours Truly} conf town
{xwing} strong town
{komodo, roster, nikk, FL} lean town
{} null town
{} null
{} null scum
{Nauci} strong scum

I will continue to explain why I believe Nauci to be scum. First I'll explain my town reads;

Will explain xwing's strong-town read just a bit later.

komodo has been playing town, if a bit inactive. I expect the last scum to be going for D2 mislynch on him or Nikk.

roster and nikk plays town. Or more precisely,

nothing they've written has pinged me as scum yet.

Prehaps it's rose tinted glasses, but that's up to others to convince me otherwise.

I will explain why I town-read FL, or rather,

why I no longer scum-read him

.

The biggest reason of my suspicion on him is ultimately down to his passivity and "IC paranoia". The other two reasons of suspicions were;
1) Town-reading vivit as seen below;

Vivit seems townie from that last post.

I think Xwing as well for the town roster comment, bar them being S/S, but that’s to be figured out later. No point in preflip associates at this point in the game.

Vivit won me over with the footsies comparison.

and 2) D1 meant not just looking for the scummiest player, but rather the most possible scum pair.

That is no longer the case.

This leaves one player that I do not, and have not ever truly town-read.

[rosterfoster]

There is no way PvtUrist is scum.

I think that Flavor Leaf is almost definitely town because it would be nuts for him to openly and repeatedly defend his scum partner like that throughout the day while essentially only contributing towards a vanity wagon on Roster.

The WIFOM is high in you. I don't think we can rule this out.

Hmm, interesting kill. I was going to say Munch was likely scum for hammering.

I’m a little unsure now.

I don’t think Pvuritist, Roster, or Nauci make sense as bud votes.

Maybe Nauci’s does, but she’s been playing very townie, and I don’t see the point as scum to state that town read on me. I expected scum to push me for that and have to defend myself for my defense over Vivit wasn’t scummy, so...well, that’s out of the way.

Nikk, Komodo, or xwing is probably where I’m looking at for today.

This is a perfect example of why Flavour frustrates me so much. So light on substance, yet so little scum-feels. Yet town-feels in second last line. But I don't agree.

and 2) D1 meant not just looking for the scummiest player, but rather the most possible scum pair.

That is no longer the case.

I actually think it's the other way round. We now have a scum-flip, so we can try to look for associative scum interactions, instead of solely looking for the scummiest player individually.

On that note, Nauci was more subtly trying to move the vote from Vivit. Since at least one of Nauci and Flavour is town, and Munch was online, I don't think there was really any way for scum Nauci to avoid 414. There was also a subtle AtE in 423 which is trying to change the overton window (what is acceptable - to anyone but Vivit) and 424 tries to make it happen (and honestly, since I was the only one there properly scum reading Vivit I'm surprised it didn't).

That's from scum Nauci.

OTOH, town Nauci could well honestly have read Vivit as town (it's not like Vivit played badly, at least one town experienced player (Nauci and Flavour) townread him quite hard) and was trying to avert this lynch, But why to PvtUrist?

I gtg now, but will say more when I come back.

Also if we have investigative PR's (including JK) with innos, I don't think they should be outed (I did some thinking about this) but perhaps crumbed if possible. Obviously if there's a guilty then out it immediately, as it's be gg.

[Nauci]

The WIFOM is high in you. I don't think we can rule this out.

It would be insane for the IC to play scum this badly and try to ride to victory on that path

I literally don't think Flavor Leaf would do that; there's no circular reasoning on this one, it's a raw deduction

[Nauci]

OTOH, town Nauci could well honestly have read Vivit as town (it's not like Vivit played badly, at least one town experienced player (Nauci and Flavour) townread him quite hard) and was trying to avert this lynch, But why to PvtUrist?

This is part of my current crisis of faith in my play

I legitimately should have scumread there, hard, because of the

constant

over-explanation of every action. It's like scumhunting 101 to pick up on people worrying that hard about how their actions look

But I've been letting people shake me by just challenging my assertions, where previously I'd have dropped a wallpost in support of my read

Instead, I went through Vivit's ISO, and couldn't find exactly why I felt like they were pushing multiple times to just about let any lynch go thorugh, and was shaken, thinking maybe just newb players of any alignment would over-explain their actions

I thought I had explained why I suggested pvturist instead yesterday, but here's the detailed combination of reasons and thought processes:

-The reasons I listed in my scum case for him still applied; his pushes were based on fairly shallow reasoning (I thought it was absurd to insist that I had only fluff posted or focus on the fact that I had fluff posted, when I had contributed a ton to the game state, even if indirectly). I dunked scum in my first game on here by dissecting their grasping-at-straws scum case on me and concluding it couldn't possibly be sincere/real scum hunting
-The real-time interaction was very towny because most new players would crumble under the pressure, but I didn't feel like the content of the rebuttals were substantial enough to be town content. It felt like a lot of "no u" and just defensiveness, instead of showing thought processes. I was wavering on my scum read of vivit because I was still wavering on the scum read of pvturist and therefore didn't find it entirely absurd when vivit latched onto that part. In hindsight, the way vivit tried to explain not accounting for my change of heart by saying at first that they didn't read it, and then later that they read it but didn't want to account for it because their post was already too long, was practically scum claiming.
-There were 4 active players in the thread and 5 votes were needed to lynch. Besides Vivit and PvtUrist, every other wagon with 1 vote on it was one of the 4 players whose votes would have to move; presumably, none were about to self hammer, so it was the only possible place to divert

[Nauci]

Anyway, I'm incredibly shaken about my mafia skill right now and uncomfortable with the amount of town pull I had yesterday for reasons that are still unclear to me for the first half of the day

so I'm going to let others dictate the content pace a bit for today

[Nauci]

I will continue to explain why I believe Nauci to be scum. First I'll explain my town reads;

I thought that this meant you were going to follow up with a wall post on the reasons you think I'm scummy

but did you mean that this POE was your case?

[PvtUrist]

shallow reasoning

I will continue to explain why I believe Nauci to be scum. First I'll explain my town reads;

I thought that this meant you were going to follow up with a wall post on the reasons you think I'm scummy

but did you mean that this POE was your case?

You wish. I'll wait to see how the folks react to the vivit flip and munch N1 before I rest my case on you.

And what you attempt in the meantime, ofcourse.

[rosterfoster]

It would be insane for the IC to play scum this badly and try to ride to victory on that path

I literally don't think Flavor Leaf would do that; there's no circular reasoning on this one, it's a raw deduction

But Flavour hard (more than you) town-read Vivit. If looking back you think it's almost criminal that you didn't scum read Vivit (I do actually disagree, but following your logic), doesn't the same thing apply to Flavour? AFAIK Flavour has a pretty solid reputation as a scumhunter, and even said so himself in 319. I don't really want to go down the route of burden of competence, but obviously his scum lean on me was wrong (and he has admitted it already), so if it was as obvious as you think it now looks I struggle to see how Flavour thought Vivit was so townie (his explanations were pretty vague).

Maybe the WIFOM is more from my side (Flavour would never do that as scum, so he does it this game as scum etc. etc.)

Also, this setup gets pretty rough for scum when there's a correct d1 lynch. In the 2 PR setups (7/9 = 77% chance. Since there was a goon flip it's slightly less but still pretty high) we're almost in autowin if an investigative clears somone who isn't a PR (and even if they haven't it's pretty decent odds, just considering PR's as named townies). So I can really see why scum would hate to have their buddy lynched D1.

I thought I had explained why I suggested pvturist instead yesterday, but here's the detailed combination of reasons and thought processes:

-The reasons I listed in my scum case for him still applied; his pushes were based on fairly shallow reasoning (I thought it was absurd to insist that I had only fluff posted or focus on the fact that I had fluff posted, when I had contributed a ton to the game state, even if indirectly). I dunked scum in my first game on here by dissecting their grasping-at-straws scum case on me and concluding it couldn't possibly be sincere/real scum hunting
-The real-time interaction was very towny because most new players would crumble under the pressure, but I didn't feel like the content of the rebuttals were substantial enough to be town content. It felt like a lot of "no u" and just defensiveness, instead of showing thought processes. I was wavering on my scum read of vivit because I was still wavering on the scum read of pvturist and therefore didn't find it entirely absurd when vivit latched onto that part. In hindsight, the way vivit tried to explain not accounting for my change of heart by saying at first that they didn't read it, and then later that they read it but didn't want to account for it because their post was already too long, was practically scum claiming.
-There were 4 active players in the thread and 5 votes were needed to lynch. Besides Vivit and PvtUrist, every other wagon with 1 vote on it was one of the 4 players whose votes would have to move; presumably, none were about to self hammer, so it was the only possible place to divert

Fair enough. Your last point had escaped me actually.

I need especially Komodo but also Xwing and Nikk to post their reactions to be sure I'm happy to place them in my townpool. I do think Nauci is town. The responses feel pretty genuine to me (granted the crisis of faith stuff could be completely genuine with scum Nauci. I was reading the last pages of that StarCraft game when we were facing the deadline, and eesh) so I really feel she's not scum. I townread everyone but Flavour now to some extent.

With that fact in mind,

VOTE: Flavour Leaf

Also, we really shouldn't have to lynch without getting a claim today. Thankfully it worked out yesterday but today it might not. So we need to decide on a lynch a couple of days before the deadline at the latest I think.

[Nauci]

doesn't the same thing apply to Flavour?

What :thing" are you referring to?

[rosterfoster]

That he *should* scum-read Vivit.