Newbie 1908 [Game Over]

[Nauci]

My repetitive stress injury is getting too rough to go into a lot of detail, but basically, I should have scum read Vivit for behaviors: exceptional self consciousness/over-explaining of actions to the point of self contradiction to try to justify actions done on bad faith is one of the 2 main behaviors of newb scum (with the other being fence sitting on every read, because it's too hard to fake strong reads and they want to leave routes open for future mislynches).

I town read Flavor because it's a choice, not a behavior, to only push a vanity wagon and repeatedly declare town reads on someone who flipped scum. It would be highly against his wincon to be relatively passive except for massive association posts about a newbscum partner. It would be absurd to bank winning 7v1on this sort of WIFOM: and it definitely would have been banking on it, because these 2 hard defense posts were right after I put Vivit at -1.

Also, Vivit all game has been providing a lot of content, and looks to be trying to solve this game. Vivit is incredibly townie to me.

I don’t understand how someone can look at Vivit’s ISO and go, “oh yeah, that looks like the best lynch for Day 1.”

Vivit has so much, and it doesn’t even look like fluff.

I don’t see scum posting like Vivit has been here. Someone’s taking advantage of it. Roster and Pvurist. This wagon has done enough to make me lose my town read on Pvurist.

[Nauci]

That he *should* scum-read Vivit.

What I have repeatedly learned in this game is: town can and frequently are wrong. Dead wrong. I was wrong enough on Vivit at the time that I pondered pivoting the wagon.

But scum play with an agenda.

[Flavor Leaf]

Playing the reputation card, eh?

If you want reputation, I have even more of a reputation at pulling off crazy scum victories.

I mentioned this game that right after this game started, I won a 26 player kill heavy game as a 3rd party Serial Killer.

I’m town locking Nauci because there’s zero reason for Nauci to town lock me as scum here.

[Flavor Leaf]

Pvurist also is stating Nauci’s most likely scum, and Nauci is continuing this mindset. To be fair, Pvurist had me at a lean town and posted the same quotes as Nauci did.

Honestly, had y’all started to push me today, I would have used it as a defense, so good deductions you two. Makes me feel comfortable town reading you guys.

Man, I was just getting ready to clear Roster.

I feel like his last post can come from town, but it does push a scum agenda. It makes sense for scum to push me, and like I said before, I expected to be pushed, but I got some town reads from it, so thats cool.

[Flavor Leaf]

Playing the reputation card, eh?

If you want reputation, I have even more of a reputation at pulling off crazy scum victories.

I mentioned this game that right after this game started, I won a 26 player kill heavy game as a 3rd party Serial Killer.

I’m town locking Nauci because there’s zero reason for Nauci to town lock me as scum here.

This was @Roster.

[Flavor Leaf]

Vivit doesn’t get lynched as my partner yesterday, Roster. I had opportunities to push other wagons, and I’m pretty good at pushing a wagon when I get in the groove of things.

I’m starting to town read Roster for his posting after having it sink in. He’s stuck on a thing, I get it.

What would people think about actually mass claiming?

If we have a tracker/Neapolitan/jailkeeper/cop - every single one of those give us an innocent today, almost 2.

[Flavor Leaf]

Vivit doesn’t get lynched as my partner yesterday, Roster. I had opportunities to push other wagons, and I’m pretty good at pushing a wagon when I get in the groove of things.

I’m starting to town read Roster for his posting after having it sink in. He’s stuck on a thing, I get it.

What would people think about actually mass claiming?

If we have a tracker/Neapolitan/jailkeeper/cop - every single one of those give us an innocent today, almost 2.

If we do this, I’d like to do it a specific way so that scum can’t fake claim without being countered.

[skitter30]

VOTE COUNT 2.1

flavor leaf (1)

- rosterfoster

Not Voting (6)

- nikk, Komodo, pvturist, nauci, xwing, Flavor Leaf

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-01-10 23:00:00)

mod notes:

- xwing is vla on weekends
- nauci will be v/la until saturday
- no pagetop
- please note again that i'm vla from this afternoon till tomorrow night (pst)
- fixed deadline
-

[rosterfoster]

Playing the reputation card, eh?

I suggest you reread my post again. Particularly the ‘burden of competence’ part. I was hesistant to say it for exactly this reason, but I have to ask questions about what confuses me, and I didn’t follow why Nauci was townreading you. Reputation is not why I think you're scum. Also, I disagree that Vivit Scum was obvious, which is what Nauci said. Also as I have said, I find it really hard to get any sort of read from your posts for some reason. I townread everyone else to some degree, so you're left. I really do want the people we haven't heard from in a while to post.

Maths about massclaiming incoming.

[rosterfoster]

Vivit doesn’t get lynched as my partner yesterday, Roster. I had opportunities to push other wagons, and I’m pretty good at pushing a wagon when I get in the groove of things.

I’m starting to town read Roster for his posting after having it sink in. He’s stuck on a thing, I get it.

What would people think about actually mass claiming?

If we have a tracker/Neapolitan/jailkeeper/cop - every single one of those give us an innocent today, almost 2.

I did think about it during the night but I'm not sure it's the right decision. If we have two PRs and two VT innos (absolute best case. There are 3 setups where this can happen, then we'd need 4/6 and 3/6 investigations to happen (assuming no guilties). So roughly about a 11% chance we get 4 innos. I can explain my maths if you want to know the details. I'm ignoring possible roleblocks so it's slightly less) then it's autowin. We'd have 3 lynches and 3 not clears.

For 2 prs and 1 vt inno it's much more complicated (as it could happen with a doctor or vt, or two investigations on the same role).

2 prs and no clears is about 40% chance I think, though again this is much harder to calculate.

1 PR and 1 clear is about 20%. This is easier.

1 PR and no clear is about 2%.

So 2 PRs 1 vt inno is about 27%.

tl;dr:

Chances of following from mass-claiming:

4 clears: 11% (pretty accurately)

3 clears: 27% (roughly)

2 clears: 40% (roughly)

1 clear: 2% (pretty accurately)

I also didn't include the fact that we've had a goon flip; that makes a difference. Also roleblocks are possible (and JK wouldn't know if they've been roleblocked, so their innos are 83% if there is a roleblocker)

This is assuming scum don't fakeclaim, but they wont because it's autoloss for them unless we're in the 1PR setups, which they have a much better idea about than we do (knowing the column we're in). But if Flavour has a wonderful anti-fakeclaim system then it applies always.

So I think the most likely outcome is 2 clears, and autowin is pretty unlikely, and if there is a roleblocker then we will lose all PR ability immediately by claiming.

[Flavor Leaf]

I said nothing about auto win. This game can just be left out to POE after that. Shouldn’t have to rely on power roles.

7 players, 2 get cleared, possibly 3, we are at a 3-1 scenario, from there, you can POE further, for instance Pvurist and Nauci, (i would also say me at this point, but I won’t) there’s a chance to completely just figure it out here.

[Flavor Leaf]

To be fair, I feel one night action plus PR claim is great after a scum flip. Sure, could get a nice guilty or something later, but claiming early takes away scum’s chance at fake claiming a win later, and makes it so we don’t have to go in circular logic. Also less chance of PR accidentally dying or purposefully if scum picked up on it and kill them before they put results.

[Flavor Leaf]

Playing the reputation card, eh?

I suggest you reread my post again. Particularly the ‘burden of competence’ part. I was hesistant to say it for exactly this reason, but I have to ask questions about what confuses me, and I didn’t follow why Nauci was townreading you. Reputation is not why I think you're scum. Also, I disagree that Vivit Scum was obvious, which is what Nauci said. Also as I have said, I find it really hard to get any sort of read from your posts for some reason. I townread everyone else to some degree, so you're left. I really do want the people we haven't heard from in a while to post.

Maths about massclaiming incoming.

Why do you assume you’re 100% correct with your town reads? I’m null to you, not scum.

If I’m null, there’s been multiple people who have explained why they think I am town, and very adamantly, might I add.

Why are you ignoring those? These are your town reads, after all, arent they?

[Flavor Leaf]

Nikk’s actually most likely town based on Vivit’s push towards Salamander early, alongside the Salamander wagon in general. I’m going to look into the wagons now.

[Flavor Leaf]

VOTE COUNT 1.5

flavor leaf (3)

- nauci, komodo, munchmellow

salamander (2)

- vivit, xwing

munchmellow (1)

- jim hawkins

rosterfoster (1)

- salamander

jim hawkins (1)

- rosterfoster

not voting (1)

- flavor leaf

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline:

(expired on 2018-12-30 23:00:00)

mod notes:

- xwing is vla on weekends, and will be v/la until 12/27
-

VOTE COUNT 1.6

jim hawkins (4)

- rosterfoster, nauci, vivit, salamander

flavor leaf (2)

- komodo, munchmellow

salamander (1)

- xwing

munchmellow (1)

- jim hawkins

not voting (1)

- flavor leaf

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline:

(expired on 2018-12-30 23:00:00)

mod notes:

- xwing is vla on weekends
-

VOTE COUNT 1.7

salamander (3)

- xwing, rosterfoster, vivit

flavor leaf (2)

- komodo, munchmellow

jim hawkins (1)

- salamander

munchmellow (1)

- jim hawkins

not voting (2)

- flavor leaf, nauci

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline:

(expired on 2018-12-30 23:00:00)

mod notes:

- xwing is vla on weekends
- jim hawkins is being replaced
-

First wagon shows Nauci, Komodo, and Munchmellow on me. Nauci/Munch town.

Roster was already on Jim/Pvurist slot, then Nauci followed, and then Vivit/Salamander hop on.

Jim is being replaced, so people decide not to lynch there, and jump on Salamander. Xwing was already there, once Roster joined, Vivit hopped over. Roster is either the base scum sticking on things where Vivit followed, or Vivit was the proactive starting one, which I feel is more likely.

It’s probably Komodo based on the wagonomics.

[Flavor Leaf]

VOTE COUNT 1.12

nikk (2)

- xwing, munchmellow

vivit (2)

- pvturist, rosterfoster

flavor leaf (1)

- komodo

rosterfoster (1)

- flavor leaf

munchmellow (1)

- nikk

pvturist (1)

- vivit

not voting (1)

- nauci

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-01-01 21:24:00)

mod notes:

- xwing is vla on weekends
-

VOTE COUNT 1.15, FINAL

vivit (5)

- pvturist, rosterfoster, nikk, nauci, munchmellow

flavor leaf (1)

- komodo

rosterfoster (1)

- flavor leaf

pvturist (1)

- vivit

not voting (1)

- xwing

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-01-01 21:24:00)

mod notes:

- xwing is vla on weekends, and until 1/3
-

These ones make it so it seems Pvurist and Roster are town. Nikk was Salamander, and Vivit was after them strong early, alongside almost being hammered. Nauci I’ve explained my town read on, and Munch is flipped. On top of someone on the wagon being killed, I feel like it’s solid to conclude this is an all town wagon.

Leaves Xwing and Komodo.

[Nikk]

I see some people bringing my up.

-Nauci and Nauci alone please for now-

What questions would you like to ask?

[Flavor Leaf]

Reads so far:

Rosterfoster

: standard RVS tactics, no real reads.

Salamander

: OMGUS counteraccusation against standard RVS tactics = scum read. Not strong, but stronger than anyone else's at this point. I may remove my vote if he comes in with a good defensive argument before lynchtime, but as is, his posts early in the thread are definitely the scummiest so far.

Nauci

: Made an off-topic post about masons, either a funpost for the lulz or a scumpost for the derail (I'm much more inclined to think the former.) Otherwise, strong town reads.

Flavor Leaf

: Town reads, but pretty quick to clear suspicion on people.

xwing

: Clearly wants to get a move on with the game. Rushing to get out of the early game is normally a scum read, but he has explicitly stated he doesn't like RVS as a personal preference. He seems like he's still getting the hang of Mafia (this has been commented on in past threads) so this definitely doesn't seem like a scum rush. When considering votes, he thinks clearly and critically. Likely town.

Komodo

: Seems to be doing more listening and asking questions than pushing ideas, so I'm guessing town.

Jim Hawkins

: Awfully quiet, so no direct reads either way, but lurking is itself a scum read. His post and login history (which at this writing say that he made his last post about 20 hours ago and logged off about 10 hours after that) indicate that he had chances to post but did not take them

Munchmellow

: Not many posts, not much to go on, but a bit more active than Jim Hawkins, so lurker vibes are weaker.
Keeping my vote on Salamander for now.

The Komodo/Xwing is where I looked at most here.

Xwing description seems like trying hard to make an impression there, and I don’t necessariky see that as s/S.

Komodo’s is the epitome of staying under the radar, so I could definitely see that as S/S.

[xwing]

got no time today, only skimmed the content so pvt can continue with her nauci scum case..
by my PoE it's komodo/fl/nikk

i dont think i got scum pings from komodo yet, wary that this could be lynch bait-y..

i got no scum pings from fl, but his lack of "influence" (for lack of a better word) this game is making me paranoid..
that said, i dont think scum!FL will defend scum!vivit that hard? but that's wifom..
vca seems right/townie too, but might be just NAI as it's mechanics stuff?
also, roster push from FL seems bad fmpov..

nauci--im choosing to believe her reasoning on giving vivit a pass..for now..

pvt is surely town..
roster and nauci seems town to me..
komodo needs to get in here..

@pvturist: why do you think komodo is town?

@nikk: who's scum?

pedit: fl, though you're sort of shading me, i think this last set of posts from you rings more townie..what do you think of nikk slot?

[Flavor Leaf]

Honestly, Salamander's post seem scummier than anybody else's with the counteraccusations. It's natural to get defensive but it's not necessarily natural to counteraccuse. I'll vote

salamander

.

I agree with Roster. It feels like nooby defense more than anything. I wouldn't think scum would be that defensive off the bat. Not wiping all suspicion on him, but I'm not going to hard push him just yet.

What makes you say Munch is a town lean? I'm not getting any scum reads on her, but I'm not getting any town reads either.

I second this question.

Also I saw the new Spiderman movie and HOT DAMN it was so amazing. One of the few movies that almost made me cry

I've been getting scum reads on Jim all game, and with Salamander's more recent posts my suspicions of him have weakened a bit; his posts seem more scrubby than scummy (though that could be exactly what he wants us to think, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now).

VOTE: Jim Hawkins should explain himself or walk the plank.

should explain himself

What do you want him to explain

Okay so like, I could honestly see scum!vivit here. I could see a scum slip of someone just blindly following a wagon while adding a "reason", even if the reason doesn't make sense. Yeah, she expanded on it in the next post, but that's some suspicious wording...

That being said

im not comfortable sheeping nauci based on "not crumbling in real time" as a town read..for all we know pvt is already experienced enough not to crumble under pressure..the scum read on nauci slot based on nauci's early posts seems forced to me..

I want to second this as well. Even if she was town, I don't think a pure noob could do everything she did. Regardless if this is her first game here or not, you have to give some appreciation to her skill and not use her skill to justify a read.

@Komodo, nice to see you are back. Could you give us your readlist?

Absolutely!

Flavor Leaf: Null scum. Almost everything he says feels like a response to someone else that doesn't move the game forward. Not to mention that he has 44 posts by now. That doesn't look good for him.
Munchmellow: I get a strong town read here. First off, everything you've said flows together in a stream of thought and comes with mostly solid reasons.
Nauci: Pretty town. She's dropped from my top town read but still up there.
Roster/Xwing: Both rather town.
Sal/Pvt/Vivit: Null scum/scum/scum.


I'll expand more tomorrow. I didn't realize how long this post would take to type and I need to get ready. I have a hot date tonight

These are all the times Komodo brought up Vivit. The first time it’s to agree with Roster whilst pushing the same agenda as Vivit, but bringing up Roster as the “mastermind”. I like to call that technique Warlocking. It happens subconsciously a lot of times.

The next time Vivit is brought up it is to emphasize that Komodo seconds a question made my Vivit.

I brought the Spider-Man movie up because like...go see it. It’s fantastic. YOURE MY SUNFLOWER!!!

Komodo starts to turn onto Vivit when suspicion spikes up, however they stay in the neutral zone while going “i could see Vivit as scum, but...” paraphrasing, but yeah.

Komodo then goes on to state multiple scum/null scum reads. I am a null scum, along with Salamander.

Pvt and Vivit are both labeled as Scum and Scum, which is convenient because they were in the 1v1 however their vote was on me.

This is a scum slot.

VOTE: Komodo

[rosterfoster]

I said nothing about auto win. This game can just be left out to POE after that. Shouldn’t have to rely on power roles.

7 players, 2 get cleared, possibly 3, we are at a 3-1 scenario, from there, you can POE further, for instance Pvurist and Nauci, (i would also say me at this point, but I won’t) there’s a chance to completely just figure it out here.

Meh, maybe I don't object to it that much. A lot this depends on who we are clearing, which is hard to tell of course. Hopefully, investigations would have been on someone scummy (but Munch was quite a obvious choice due to the sudden flip-flop on her. Actually that might explain the kill). It's hard to know exactly what that is, but I would prefer to go with the theoretically optimal play (I could well be wrong about what that is of course).

Nikk’s actually most likely town based on Vivit’s push towards Salamander early, alongside the Salamander wagon in general. I’m going to look into the wagons now.

182 pretty munch confTowns Nikk I guess. Who would suddenly start bussing their partner for scummy reasoning when an easy lurker lynch looked possible?

Pedits (I didn't write this in one go): And Flavour is actually posting townie stuff. I can't tell if I'm being defeated by sheer force of will here, but I'm seriously doubting myself. This Komodo stuff is convincing me a bit. And I can't townread everyone.

And Komodo when you return if you can please tell me why in 309 you kept your vote on Null scum (Flavour) rather than Scum (Pvt/Vivit) I would be happy.

VOTE: Komodo

PPPPPEdit: Ninja'd there by Xwing.

PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPEdit: And by Flavour. Lol

[Flavor Leaf]

@Xwing - I’m not really shading you. You’re just in my POE (process of elimination). I don’t have a scum case on you, nor do I think I need one. I think I’m correct with Komodo.

Nikk’s probably town based on the way Salamander was being pushed.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Roster - we mind melded. Sick. We both brought up that Komodo voting on null scum.

[Nauci]

What would people think about actually mass claiming?

No thanks

[rosterfoster]

I saw Xwing's post and was like I'd better send this then pressed send again and saw yours and was like...oh.