Newbie 1912 [GAME COMPLETE]

[Enter]

Slow wagon buildups are more often scum than fast wagons, especially on day 1.

EBWOP.

Also the fact that people are trying to meta me off of a single game they haven't read is actually ridiculous.

I don't like that Loopdan is calling for 1v1. It feels off to me.

[Enter]

slow wagon buildups are very often scum, especially on day 1.

So your saying you think the people who have been slow to vote him are town for you and we are all hesitant because were not sure if he is scum? Loopdan flips his vote alot, are you saying that makes him scum?

I'm saying that especially day 1 town often is easier to lynch than scum. My speculation as to why includes the possibility that town are more conservative when hammering a player and that scum are a lot less likely to be on a scum wagon (and at most it will be # of scum-1)

I said the way Loopdan flipped his vote made him look bad. Especially because he flipped his vote a lot and didn't push his reads at all.

[Thespio]

I said the way Loopdan flipped his vote made him look bad. Especially because he flipped his vote a lot and didn't push his reads at all.

Teaching Moment

For the newer players this is important btw, Scum often struggle because they cant hunt for scum because they are scum, so their reads usually are just surface deep. pushing them often leads to information that is inconsistent.

I agree with the concept, if he wasnt attacking your meta, and he was mine would you feel the same way?

[Thespio]

that is a very good point, and rather ammusing.
The order is what i think the mos likely case it:
Scum tunnel ~ 85%
TvT ~ 10%
Enter = god ~ 5%

Help me push him a little then. What feels most off about the tunnel/push?

[Enter]

UNVOTE: I want to see how Loopdan plays this out, i feel like however he flips Enter will be the opposite.

Wouldn't you WANT to flip Loopdan in that case so you can understand me? I'm afraid I'm not following.

Also it's Mewbie 1477. That was an actual tunnel. I tunneled Hanzo from day 1 into day 2 until he flipped scum from his lynch on day 2.

[Elements]

Quick question to everyone not named Enter: Do you have any idea what his current read is on you?

I've absolutely no clue

[Enter]

@elements

Spoiler: Recommended Reading

Skellen reads town, though.
Elements also reads ... fine.
Thespio is full of words that mean barely anything w/ no vote and his "change of heart" on elements is weird.
Loopdan reads red.

Alright. So I've been pretty back and forth on my read for Thespio, which is why I've been really rather hoping to get a Loopdan lynch today so we can re-examine Thespio tomorrow.

The biggest part causing me to reconsider my scum read on him is how quickly the wagon formed. One thing that is often good to look at in mafia games is who is pushing what wagon and when. Day 1 wagons are often really quite hard to work up to a lynch, especially w/o scum. This is one reason why very often townies are lynched on day 1; scum controls a little over 20% of the vote and they both know who they want lynched - anyone but them. The Thespio wagon built pretty quickly after my arrival, which is somewhat surprising, since I didn't really push him at all. My thought is that town was looking for someone to push that wasn't a lurker, but was under the influence of loopdan/Thespio => didn't really want to try to solo push one of them against the crowd. So, considering Thespio is at a potential L-1 right now, let's look at who's on this wagon:

Thespio (3) -

PvtUrist 10

,

Munchmellow 140

,

Elements 149

And for the sake of analysis, we'll consider Thespio's 193 as a self-vote.

Munchmellow doesn't have very many posts this game, but the ones she does have, I follow and share a thought process with. She suspects Loopdan in 70, reexamines her read and explains why Thespio feels off in 137 (which I agree with, BTW, the whole "self -vote" thing is a level of AtE that shouldn't be accomplished by anyone other than a newbie, IMO)
[BTW, Thespio, if you're reading this and you still think for some reason that Loopdan's 92 was serious, you should notice that Munchmellow responds as if he's asking about you and he still doesn't notice, which should trigger the thought in you that it's pretty apparent loopdan is asking questions to ask questions and has nothing he's looking for] Anyways. Munchmellow posts reads in 140 - which I agree with, and it makes me happy that it's a pretty full reads list. I feel pretty solid on Munchmellow for town.

Elements follows Munchmellow. ISO-ing him and one could easily see how you might think you're ISO-ing the same person. Again, I agree with his thoughts, his reservations on the whole self-vote thing, his questioning of double-bussing. I like him for town.

PvtUrist - This one is weird, because it does still feel, in the slightest way, a bit weird to me that he has maintained his vote on Thespio since game start. But. Here's why I think he's town: He was the first player to drop reads. Loopdan's vote on him is super weird and he avoids responsibility for his PvtUrist vote (which loopdan would WANT responsibility for PvtUrist flip if he was bussing his buddy). When PvtUrist did drop those questions in 112, they were pretty decent questions and indicate some small amount of town - motivation. Yes, my town read on him is weak. No, it doesn't matter, because my scum read on Loopdan is ridiculously strong, and there isn't two scum in [PvtUrist, Loopdan]

Finally, Thespio:
I disagree with the idea of lynching yourself. Let's start there. Yes I was ok with it when I started mafia, but I've grown and changed a lot, I think. You have a role-pm from the mod that says you're town. That is the largest confirmation you will get and the first piece to the logic puzzle that is mafia. (it's a little more than a logic puzzle, but bear with me). The only time you should ever be ok with yourself being lynched is never, IMO, because you should always be doing your best to be the largest asset to town when you're alive, and when you're dead, you have no control over the game. I have seen so many times where it looks like town has won because everything is set up perfectly and some charming mafia goon wins over the heart of the guy heading off his lynch and all of a sudden town loses in a 3p LyLo. Sure, at the end of day yesterday, everyone agreed that if you self-voted then they would lynch the mafia goon you were so certain should die if you flipped town, but people change. People's read change. A lot. Especially over night. However, I will not lynch based solely off the fact that people are willing to play sub-optimal town games in this way, because I'm pretty sure there are mafia players that will disagree with me on the self-vote being suboptimal. Whatever.

Let's get to the next issue: Self-vote threats: This is an entirely different matter because it is the lowest of low AtE. While talk of lynching yourself can be considered mafia theory, threatening to self-vote is a spastic response of emotion that belongs nowhere except every once in a while, from a newbie, in a newbie game. Then the threat should be squashed by the IC and everyone should move on with their lives, because it's bad. It is very bad. I view self-votes in mafia games like I view threats to wreck your own car because it would get attention. Will I lynch for it? Not always. Did it make me think he was almost definitely scum for a moment? Yes. This is one of the very few places that meta-ing someone does come in handy for me. When I see someone make dumb newbie mistakes like this, I go back and look at past games and see if they make the same mistakes in those games as town. So, let's see what we can find:

In Newbie 1640, Post 190 viewtopic.php?p=7160867#p7160867, Thespio says:

This helps no one. if you honestly got him lynched and he was town, then its likely a scum driven lynch and thus if you are town you will have scum backing as well. Ultimately you could both be town.

Indicating an understanding that self-flipping and threats of such are rarely reasonable.

And in Newbie 1625, Post 982 viewtopic.php?p=7160867#p7160867, Thespio says:

There kill last night is basically WIFOM. I think its odd you countered immediately... But I also think Jorams timely absence is quite mysterious too... So im lookin @ Jorams post about being investigated a possible scum slip. I also think Aku is lurking pretty badly... Anyone have any think aku might have used Bulba as a train after we all were questioning him?

Again indicating how much WIFOM surrounds a kill. Sure, he's talking about a night kill here, but the point is across that once you're dead, you're not as effective and it is so easy to WIFOM everything out. Even if PvtUrist was scum, day 2 when we tried to lynch him, he would start explaining everything for Thespio and Thespio wouldn't be there to correct him. I've seen it so much, and Thespio seems to understand this, too, which makes me think he's prolly scum, using AtE.

Up until this point, I had been doubting my read on Thespio, but the threats to self-vote is so bad and talk of self-lynch over no-lynch is so bad, I don't think I can fathom him flipping town.

In addition he had some weird interactions at beginning of day, his teasing flip w/ his read on elements was weird, and his pushing of lurkers is bad. I also don't like how he dismissed the Skellen v Loopdan as TvT and Loopdan chimed in. Anyways, I'm super distracted right now, so I will get back to this later, but as of right now, I feel pretty solid on my scum read on Thespio.

As far as Loopdan's partner, let's examine the possibilities:

1. PvtUrist: Loopdan doesn't take responsibility for his vote, like he should if he knew PvtUrist was flipping scum. => I think PvtUrist is pretty much conftown when Loopdan flips scum
2. Skellen: Skellen reads like town to me. 125 makes them look town, I think. I think it's pretty rare for scum to call other scum hard town read without other townies agreeing, also the debate at the beginning makes me think it's TvS => Skellen is town.
3. muh316: Kinda weird vote from Loopdan in RVS. Also second one to jump on Loopdan after I came in, and continued to press. Looks kinda town to me (although there really isn't much interaction between them, muh316 calls out Loopdan, Loopdan says "later" :/ ).
4. Munchmellow: Again, not a lot of interactions outside an RVS vote from Loopdan. She's placed suspicion on him before. Reading her as pretty town-y.
5. elements: Weird interaction between elements and Loopdan on Loopdan's side, again. :/ And again, we see another case of elements calling him out for being weird.

You might begin to be seeing a pattern here. Everyone here has called Loopdan out for weird things. I think most of the people in this group are less likely to be his partner than the other two, but it's pretty hard. Elements, for example, could easily be just following other people's example by calling out Loopdan out for his weirdness. If I had to pick a name out of this list on the spot, it would prolly be elements based on the fact that Loopdan didn't vote him when elements made a weird move w/ his votes, even though he did vote muh316. Although that might point more towards muh316, as it seems to me that Loopdan is more scared of pushing a wagon on town.
====

6. Thespio: weird interactions w/ Loopdan. One of the only people to not call him out for weird stuff in the game thread.
7. MissDeadbeat/MagikHorse: Actually nothing this game. Loopdan was awful quick to get his vote off MissDeadbeat. This signals to me that she's the most likely here to be scum. In addition, he took full responsibility for his vote on her. My suspicion is that he saw Thespio vote her, thought to himself "Oh crap better bus her, it's maybe over for her" and then swapped to PvtUrist once he saw a way out.

My conclusion: Of every player here, I would really like to see more from MagikHorse (and if I don't, I will be a very big fan of their lynch on day 2).

@Enter, I have a question for you, say we flip Loopdan and hes town, whats your next course of action?

I will seriously reconsider my take on PvtUrist

[Loopdan]

@Magik, you wanna see what too scummy to be scum looks like? The post below.

UNVOTE: I want to see how Loopdan plays this out, i feel like however he flips Enter will be the opposite.

Can you explain that a little bit more for us newbies?

So there are two things at work here.

1) "Too scummy for scum" is the idea that sometimes town players act in ways that look incredibly scummy. Like so scummy that scum would be too self-aware to say those things.

2) Thespio's post is an example of this because scum would know I am town and could use it as an excuse to lynch town!Enter the next day. It's looks like how scum set up mis-lynches before the first player's alignment has even been revealed.

So when I say this is an example of too scummy for scum, I'm saying Thespio's post looks scummy, but too scummy for scum to actually make it because they would be trying to sound townie.

[Thespio]

Wouldn't you WANT to flip Loopdan in that case so you can understand me? I'm afraid I'm not following.

Also it's Mewbie 1477. That was an actual tunnel. I tunneled Hanzo from day 1 into day 2 until he flipped scum from his lynch on day 2.

As I just said, I know one of you are scum, I'm leaning towards loopdan because it gives info on you an Pvt, however... We have a few days in D1 left, and there is always the posibility im wrong, so i want to see if we can test both of your reads, loopdans seems more reactive, and he nearly gave up so im not sure if it was a pity play as scum and then when he saw it wouldn't work he made a strong active push to try to live. Regardless discussions help town.

[Loopdan]

@Magik, you wanna see what too scummy to be scum looks like? The post below.

UNVOTE: I want to see how Loopdan plays this out, i feel like however he flips Enter will be the opposite.

I dont understand, do you think he is town tunneling you? You are still my pick for today I just dont want anything to stop this clash, i want to see it to its end so D2 regardless of what happens I know what you both think. I do believe one of you is scum, i understand he did basically tunnel you, he did it even when confronting me. You arent out of the fire yet. But your survivalism does seem town now that you are actually trying.

I'm think there's a chance he is town-tunneling me, but I think there's a greater chance he's just scum. Enter has not shown equivocation or doubt or puzzlement about anything. That doesn't read as town.

[Thespio]

I'm think there's a chance he is town-tunneling me, but I think there's a greater chance he's just scum. Enter has not shown equivocation or doubt or puzzlement about anything. That doesn't read as town.

What is you reaction to him differentiating a push form a tunnel?

[Loopdan]

Enter says I called it a tunnel after only ten hours. Sure. He also had 17 mostly lengthy posts where he aggressively argued that I was scum during that time. And during that time he never once tried to engage me directly to determine my alignment. He came into the game with his mind already made up. I actually started off addressing his concerns in 143, 145, 160, 161, 162, 163, and 170. During that time he posted nine times while mis-repping what I'd said and lying about what I'd done (remember when he quoted my posts out of order to say I encouraged town to scumhunt and

then

I sheeped Skellen's vote. Yeah it was the other way around).

After I recognized he had no interest in actually sorting me, but had clearly already made up his mind, I post this:

Yeah I think we are done here, Enter. You haven't even asked me any questions, indicating you have zero interest in actually sorting my alignment. Like I said before, you are either confbiasing or scum. I'm not going to get sucked into your never-ending tunnel of misrepresentations and outright lies (see 161 for just one example).

If other players think Enter has some valid points and want to point those out to me I'll be glad to engage and answer as best I can. As far as I can tell Enter's case on me is that I didn't do enough to advance the game-state (which I already admitted before he showed up) and that I placed 6 (oops I mean 4) votes without posting huge walls of explanation.

After I'm done reading some of Enter's prior games I'll come back with (hopefully) a better stance on Badtown v Scum.

So yeah, that's the background on me first calling it a tunnel.

[Loopdan]

I'm think there's a chance he is town-tunneling me, but I think there's a greater chance he's just scum. Enter has not shown equivocation or doubt or puzzlement about anything. That doesn't read as town.

What is you reaction to him differentiating a push form a tunnel?

I don't understand this question.

[Thespio]

Enter says I called it a tunnel after only ten hours. Sure. He also had 17 mostly lengthy posts where he aggressively argued that I was scum during that time. And during that time he never once tried to engage me directly to determine my alignment. He came into the game with his mind already made up. I actually started off addressing his concerns in 143, 145, 160, 161, 162, 163, and 170. During that time he posted nine times while mis-repping what I'd said and lying about what I'd done (remember when he quoted my posts out of order to say I encouraged town to scumhunt and

then

I sheeped Skellen's vote. Yeah it was the other way around).

After I recognized he had no interest in actually sorting me, but had clearly already made up his mind, I post this:

Yeah I think we are done here, Enter. You haven't even asked me any questions, indicating you have zero interest in actually sorting my alignment. Like I said before, you are either confbiasing or scum. I'm not going to get sucked into your never-ending tunnel of misrepresentations and outright lies (see 161 for just one example).

If other players think Enter has some valid points and want to point those out to me I'll be glad to engage and answer as best I can. As far as I can tell Enter's case on me is that I didn't do enough to advance the game-state (which I already admitted before he showed up) and that I placed 6 (oops I mean 4) votes without posting huge walls of explanation.

After I'm done reading some of Enter's prior games I'll come back with (hopefully) a better stance on Badtown v Scum.

So yeah, that's the background on me first calling it a tunnel.

Ok so youre saying if it was a push there would have been actual questions and statements that he wanted a reply to?

@Enter, was there something specific you were hunting for?

[Loopdan]

I don't like that Loopdan is calling for 1v1. It feels off to me.

This literally means nothing. Explain.

[Loopdan]

@Enter, was there something specific you were hunting for?

This is a bad question. You should read his ISO yourself and determine if he was hunting for anything.

[Loopdan]

Ok so youre saying if it was a push there would have been actual questions and statements that he wanted a reply to?

Not necessarily. But if he didn't have tunnel vision you would expect to see some doubt, some curiosity, some type of interaction with the person you suspect of being scum. He didn't attempt to do this until after I told him I was done with him.

[Thespio]

@Enter, was there something specific you were hunting for?

This is a bad question. You should read his ISO yourself and determine if he was hunting for anything.

I know I can find it but I dont see a specific thing he was looking for except to show you were scum, I would like to confirm if this was his only goal.

[Loopdan]

Do you really think he's going to come on here and say "I was 100% sure Loopdan was scum and so I didn't have to ask him anything, just drive his wagon to his lynch"?

Because he isn't going to say that.

You can't sort players by

asking

them their intent behind their actions. You have to determine their intent

by their actions

. The exception would be when their actions are ambiguous and you think clarification is necessary to pin them down to something. But there was nothing ambiguous about Enter's play.

[Thespio]

Do you really think he's going to come on here and say "I was 100% sure Loopdan was scum and so I didn't have to ask him anything, just drive his wagon to his lynch"?

Because he isn't going to say that.

You can't sort players by

asking

them their intent behind their actions. You have to determine their intent

by their actions

. The exception would be when their actions are ambiguous and you think clarification is necessary to pin them down to something. But there was nothing ambiguous about Enter's play.

I disagree, I think scum reads from scum are very shallow, If he honestly thinks your scum if i push his motive and he cant explain thats a clear indicator for me, why did you wait so long to vote him?

[Thespio]

@loopdan also do you think ill take their work for it? the point is to attack the core of their reasoning to see its strength.

[Enter]

Wouldn't you WANT to flip Loopdan in that case so you can understand me? I'm afraid I'm not following.

Also it's Mewbie 1477. That was an actual tunnel. I tunneled Hanzo from day 1 into day 2 until he flipped scum from his lynch on day 2.

As I just said, I know one of you are scum, I'm leaning towards loopdan because it gives info on you an Pvt, however... We have a few days in D1 left, and there is always the posibility im wrong, so i want to see if we can test both of your reads, loopdans seems more reactive, and he nearly gave up so im not sure if it was a pity play as scum and then when he saw it wouldn't work he made a strong active push to try to live. Regardless discussions help town.

Regardless of any other circumstances, let's math this out real quick.

Flipping Loopdan gives you solid reads on two people.

Flipping me gives you reads on no one.

@Magik, you wanna see what too scummy to be scum looks like? The post below.

UNVOTE: I want to see how Loopdan plays this out, i feel like however he flips Enter will be the opposite.

I dont understand, do you think he is town tunneling you? You are still my pick for today I just dont want anything to stop this clash, i want to see it to its end so D2 regardless of what happens I know what you both think. I do believe one of you is scum, i understand he did basically tunnel you, he did it even when confronting me. You arent out of the fire yet. But your survivalism does seem town now that you are actually trying.

I'm think there's a chance he is town-tunneling me, but I think there's a greater chance he's just scum. Enter has not shown equivocation or doubt or puzzlement about anything. That doesn't read as town.

You failed to reply to my posts. You failed to show you read and understood what I was talking about. You were quick to skim and dismiss anything that proposed you might be scum. You still claim I misrep you but fail to show how. You cherry-picked my post.

You use a lot of words, mate, but most of them aren't true and the other half show you don't understand what they mean. You still haven't defined a tunnel or talked about why you think it's bad for town.

Every time I come close to doubting my read on you, you do something scummier. I did doubt and changed my read on Thespio, because he actually showed that he cared. He read and responded to my posts, he answered my concerns, and he didn't continuously use words or make up arguments out of thin air. He didn't go searching my post history in other games so he could confbias me (see, that's how you use that word correctly) He didn't sit and pout for a day and half after getting called scum. He didn't decide that the lynch should be between him and anyone who calls him scum. You seem frustrated, and annoyed, and I think it's because you still don't understand. This frustrates me, because I want you to understand, I just can't make you if you refuse to read my continuous attempts to explain.

How about you use that meta of yours and look through that scum game I played recently. Look at how often I showed doubt in that. See a large contrast? Interesting. Stop coming up with excuses for why you were caught out as scum and justifying them by searching for confbias.

Enter says I called it a tunnel after only ten hours. Sure. He also had 17 mostly lengthy posts where he aggressively argued that I was scum during that time. And during that time he never once tried to engage me directly to determine my alignment. He came into the game with his mind already made up. I actually started off addressing his concerns in 143, 145, 160, 161, 162, 163, and 170. During that time he posted nine times while mis-repping what I'd said and lying about what I'd done (remember when he quoted my posts out of order to say I encouraged town to scumhunt and

then

I sheeped Skellen's vote. Yeah it was the other way around).

After I recognized he had no interest in actually sorting me, but had clearly already made up his mind, I post this:

Yeah I think we are done here, Enter. You haven't even asked me any questions, indicating you have zero interest in actually sorting my alignment. Like I said before, you are either confbiasing or scum. I'm not going to get sucked into your never-ending tunnel of misrepresentations and outright lies (see 161 for just one example).

If other players think Enter has some valid points and want to point those out to me I'll be glad to engage and answer as best I can. As far as I can tell Enter's case on me is that I didn't do enough to advance the game-state (which I already admitted before he showed up) and that I placed 6 (oops I mean 4) votes without posting huge walls of explanation.

After I'm done reading some of Enter's prior games I'll come back with (hopefully) a better stance on Badtown v Scum.

So yeah, that's the background on me first calling it a tunnel.

You failed to quote your other post, where you call me bad town confbiasing or scum. Interesting.

You still fail to define what a tunnel is. Please do. Please also define a push, because I don't think you understand what either is, given your very passive play.

Enter says I called it a tunnel after only ten hours. Sure. He also had 17 mostly lengthy posts where he aggressively argued that I was scum during that time. And during that time he never once tried to engage me directly to determine my alignment. He came into the game with his mind already made up. I actually started off addressing his concerns in 143, 145, 160, 161, 162, 163, and 170. During that time he posted nine times while mis-repping what I'd said and lying about what I'd done (remember when he quoted my posts out of order to say I encouraged town to scumhunt and

then

I sheeped Skellen's vote. Yeah it was the other way around).

After I recognized he had no interest in actually sorting me, but had clearly already made up his mind, I post this:

Yeah I think we are done here, Enter. You haven't even asked me any questions, indicating you have zero interest in actually sorting my alignment. Like I said before, you are either confbiasing or scum. I'm not going to get sucked into your never-ending tunnel of misrepresentations and outright lies (see 161 for just one example).

If other players think Enter has some valid points and want to point those out to me I'll be glad to engage and answer as best I can. As far as I can tell Enter's case on me is that I didn't do enough to advance the game-state (which I already admitted before he showed up) and that I placed 6 (oops I mean 4) votes without posting huge walls of explanation.

After I'm done reading some of Enter's prior games I'll come back with (hopefully) a better stance on Badtown v Scum.

So yeah, that's the background on me first calling it a tunnel.

Ok so youre saying if it was a push there would have been actual questions and statements that he wanted a reply to?

@Enter, was there something specific you were hunting for?

There's a couple. Specifically, I just want him to read my posts and seriously reply to them instead of being dismissive and the like. As I said before, he's shown on multiple occasions he's not paying attention and he's not taking this game seriously like he should be as town. This is because the day phase doesn't matter to him, his strength is in the night phase. The fact that you're letting him flail like this is ridiculous.

Right now, though, I want him to actually come up with a serious complete set of reads - I asked him for this a while ago and he still hasn't posted it. I asked him to answer some questions and he asked me to find them for him, so I quoted myself. He still hasn't posted a complete set of reads.
I also want him to define a tunnel in his words and explain why what I'm doing is tunneling and not pushing my reads. He's been claiming I've been confbiasing for a while now, and I'd like an explanation as to what preexisting argument I had that I was confbiasing for. Also I would like a reason - really any reason - why I would push him over PvtUrist as scum.

Really, though, all I really want are some complete thoughts about the game that he's put together. His fragmented 8-posts in a row don't do it for me, they're spastic, spammy and give barely any information.

[Thespio]

Dear god, refresh and the wall of text appears, Enter I’m not proposing we lynch you rn, I want him to post more so if he’s scum we get more banter and possibly get a hint towards partner.

[MagikHorse]

Quick question to everyone not named Enter: Do you have any idea what his current read is on you?

I've absolutely no clue

I also have no clue, but the last post I was brought up was also before I had actually said anything of note and he's been too busy bickering with Loop since.

[Thespio]

I also have no clue, but the last post I was brought up was also before I had actually said anything of note and he's been too busy bickering with Loop since.

Well I think you are a kind person and are town.