In post 620, Almost50 wrote:If we KNEW someone to be a WW we would have lynched them.
So you're arguing that a Wolf lynch is good for town, and also beneficial to Mafia greatly and also that you'd lynch a WW if you knew one...In post 611, Almost50 wrote:If the lynch is on WW though (which is good for Town) the remaining Wold is forced to hunt for the Seer, because if the catch him the WW are eliminated. This in turn helps Mafia greatly and puts them in pole position.
In post 519, Almost50 wrote:So, obviously what's best is if we lynch a WW, followed by NO LYNCH, followed by lynching a Mafioso, and the worst thing is -naturally- to mislynch a townie.
By your logic, WW>NL>Mafia lynch.In post 600, Almost50 wrote:Your push on WWs in particular is also a Mafia claim.
Okay, I think I've got this figured out, assuming this is TvT, which I believe it is.In post 626, Auro wrote:In post 519, Almost50 wrote:So, obviously what's best is if we lynch a WW, followed by NO LYNCH, followed by lynching a Mafioso, and the worst thing is -naturally- to mislynch a townie.By your logic, WW>NL>Mafia lynch.In post 600, Almost50 wrote:Your push on WWs in particular is also a Mafia claim.
I'm saying WW>NL, let's wolfhunt.
I'm town; if I'm opposed to a No Lynch, and WW lynch is superior but Mafia lynch is inferior, obviously I would be particular about a WW push, right?
That I did clarify, I gave 3 reasons why he's Mafia. But because you are a good friend I'll reiterate:In post 622, brassherald wrote:Where did Auro make claims of being Mafia?In post 621, Almost50 wrote:I can't clarify unless you tell me exactly what you need me to clarifyIn post 619, brassherald wrote:I feel like I need A50 to clarify a bit more
It's not voodoo math.In post 627, brassherald wrote:Auro has done some voodoo math that I don't get involved in to say he's got a 1/3 chance to be right
Isn't this you doing the same thing you are saying he's doing?In post 629, Almost50 wrote: 1- Avoiding Bambi (a claimed Mafia if we choose to believe that). The fact that he is excluding Bambi from being a WW and accepting his claim as Mafia is reason enough to think they're both Mafia.
There's ONLY ONE other possibility, which is Bambi+Auro IS the WW team, but I don't see that as probable, because Bambi is a much better player than to do this and expose the whole team. I thus believe him to be Mafia indeed, and Auro is certainly on his team.
But, we don't need Bambi to bus a partner to get a lynch on the partner?In post 630, Auro wrote:It's not voodoo math.In post 627, brassherald wrote:Auro has done some voodoo math that I don't get involved in to say he's got a 1/3 chance to be right
1. Bambi's claimed Mafia
2. Bambi wouldn't bus his partner in this situation cause it's a really, really really stupid strategy for Mafia
3. That brings the lynch pool to 7; a seer would claim at L-1 so brings it to 6
4. 2 wolves; so 2/6 = 1/3 chances of hitting a wolf.
I don't disagree with A50's math, I disagree on his conclusions from the math. His math basically says 1/3 chance of 5-2-2 tomorrow and 2/3 chance of 4-3-2 tomorrow, and there's a greater chance of regaining town majority than if we lynch; my counter-argument is that a majority doesn't make sense with both wolves alive and isn't worth sacrificing a chance to lynch wolves for.
The "you" was directed @TOWN, not claimed scum.In post 624, Auro wrote:Also not able to reconcile this with the attitude you portray in your recent posts, with McQueen at L-1.In post 519, Almost50 wrote:so I'm gonna shut up and play along with whatever you guys decide
1. Bambi could be a WW, sure. I'm lynching that slot anyway later. However, it's most likely he IS Mafia claiming Mafia, and even then, suspicion that he's a WW won't prevent me from lynching McQueen.In post 629, Almost50 wrote:1- Avoiding Bambi (a claimed Mafia if we choose to believe that). The fact that he is excluding Bambi from being a WW and accepting his claim as Mafia is reason enough to think they're both Mafia.
2- His manipulation of the game status and pushing for a lynch at all costs. A mislynch is beneficial to both scum, but he is excluding a lynch on Mafia too, so a mislynch or a WW lynch. >>> MAFIA
3- I forgot what the third was, but go back to the very post where I said that and read it and my subsequent post. Either that or ISO Auro since the start of D2 and see for yourself.
Bambi gave the a-OK to lynch McQueen.In post 632, brassherald wrote:But, we don't need Bambi to bus a partner to get a lynch on the partner?
See? THIS is a misleading statement. WHO says it will be a VILLA kill all the time? It's a 5:3 at random, and assuming WWs don't want to hit Mafia at this point is stupid.In post 624, Auro wrote:A 1/3 chance of hitting a Wolf, versus a ~2/3 chance of a guaranteed no-wolf-hit and Villa kill.
I think it is more likely to be indicative that they are not partnered, but I can think of reasons for her to vote there if they were mafia partners. It could be to throw off Vote Count Analysis later, counting on our losing interest in an early Day 2 lynch and moving on to someone else, etc. I'm going to give you more than 50% that they are not aligned, but its not impossible.Auro wrote:Bambi gave the a-OK to lynch McQueen.In post 632, brassherald wrote:But, we don't need Bambi to bus a partner to get a lynch on the partner?
I was expecting him to refuse and continue tunnelling the hydra (or) argue in favor of a no lynch if McQueen was Mafia.
Do you think Bambi would so readily bus his buddy?
We don't need Bambi to bus his partner; but that he readily voted is indicative that the partner isn't Mafia -> leading to the 1/3 number.
"Manipulation of game state"In post 568, Auro wrote:@A50 correct me if I'm wrong.
A simplification of your idea... [snip]
If I haven't articulated this properly, please do tell me.
1 Mafia dead, 1 Mafia claimed (guaranteed lynch), 1 remaining.In post 637, brassherald wrote:I think it is more likely to be indicative that they are not partnered, but I can think of reasons for her to vote there if they were mafia partners. It could be to throw off Vote Count Analysis later, counting on our losing interest in an early Day 2 lynch and moving on to someone else, etc. I'm going to give you more than 50% that they are not aligned, but its not impossible.
IF the lynch goes through.In post 639, Auro wrote:1 Mafia dead, 1 Mafia claimed (guaranteed lynch), 1 remaining.In post 637, brassherald wrote:I think it is more likely to be indicative that they are not partnered, but I can think of reasons for her to vote there if they were mafia partners. It could be to throw off Vote Count Analysis later, counting on our losing interest in an early Day 2 lynch and moving on to someone else, etc. I'm going to give you more than 50% that they are not aligned, but its not impossible.
With both wolves remaining with their NKs.
It's a surefire way to lose as Mafia.
It won't be a villa kill *all* the time. 5/8 = 62.5% which is 4% away from 2/3.In post 636, Almost50 wrote:See? THIS is a misleading statement. WHO says it will be a VILLA kill all the time? It's a 5:3 at random, and assuming WWs don't want to hit Mafia at this point is stupid.
Let's do the math..
If we mislynch we are 4-3-2, and WWs don't want the kill is on Villa = 3-3-2. By this point the town has lost already, and I suspect the Mafia become too powerful to overcome by TOWN & WWs COMBINED (unless WWs open wolf and the whole Town is willing to give them the win)
If we No Lynch, and the kill hits "Villa" it is 4-3-2 tomorrow, and by sheer numbers we are likely to lynch "not-town". Not to mention it becomes "odd numbers by day" a game, which is ALSO statistically proven pro-town in games with single NKs.
Dude, I really doubt the odd-evens logic works for Multiball...In post 640, brassherald wrote:Yeah, we are off odds right now. I want an odd number.
WWs have a night kill. We have claimed Mafia.In post 636, Almost50 wrote:Mafia become too powerful to overcome by TOWN & WWs COMBINED (unless WWs open wolf and the whole Town is willing to give them the win)
Ok if you just consider this "Wolf/NotWolf" then odds/evens makes more sense but with this number of players I think it's a slightly greater chance, and I'm asserting yet again that lynches are the ONLY tool we have to get rid of Wolves. They do have shots at night; that might help us clear Mafia, and in any case once we get one wolf down we can Mafia-hunt.In post 643, Auro wrote:Dude, I really doubt the odd-evens logic works for Multiball...In post 640, brassherald wrote:Yeah, we are off odds right now. I want an odd number.
In post 646, brassherald wrote:I'm honestly not sure why evens are bad anymore, but I know people keep telling me they are, so I like things to be not bad.
