Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!

[brassherald]

A seer claim automatically gets killed by WWs at night, Seer is their biggest threat.

[Vedith]

Uh, no - **if** McQueen claims seer we're definitely not lynching him.

Yes we are. And we are not waiting for a CC.
Otherwise you are saying if he's town we lynch if he's not town he fake claims and lives.

[Auro]

Oh no I'm not saying we should have seer CC.

[rosterfoster]

Auro, we mislynched D1 (and townie kill N1) so we're in a not-ideal situation.

2 maf kills is of great benefit to us as well, possibly even more so than WW. Assuming Bambi is maf:

Today: 5-3-2

Tomorrow: 5-2-2

Lynch maf. If kill town then

4-1-2

If kill maf then:

5-0-2

With many seer checks. It is better for us to leave wolves than mafia as there is a seer. That situation does not benefit wolves.

If we didn't lynch maf (e.g. wolves kill Bambi, if he's not WW) and mislynched then it's 4-2-2 before nightkill and we can reach 3-2-2 or 4-1-2. Then we go hard on the wolf hunting, but it's tough obviously. Then again I don't think we're too far off 33/33/33 in the first and 50/50 in the second (with the wolves) so it's not that much of a degredation, and considering we had two bad things happen already it's not such bad odds.

If wolves kill townie, then it's not great, sure. But we're in 4-3-2 and need to lynch a wolf just as much as before. Wolves cannot kill town or they definitely lose, so again I don't think we've lost that much if anything.

Pedits: Way too many posts to comment on, but I still believe in no-lynch here.

[brassherald]

If he's WW that claims Seer, the real Seer doesn't CC, tries to find his partner, and outs tomorrow. If he's Mafia who claims Seer, he's 100% dead tonight.

If he claims seer, he gives last night's results, and we'll find out whether he's telling the truth tomorrow.

[Vedith]

Maybe Auro is Scum.
UNVOTE: McQueen

[Almost50]

Yeah, claiming Seer is the optimal Scum strat. But I didn't wanna be boring so I wasnt claiming that.

Why would you try to out the Seer when you're MAFIA???

[Auro]

If he's WW that claims Seer, the real Seer doesn't CC, tries to find his partner, and outs tomorrow. If he's Mafia who claims Seer, he's 100% dead tonight.

If he claims seer, he gives last night's results, and we'll find out whether he's telling the truth tomorrow.

This.

[rosterfoster]

If he's WW that claims Seer, the real Seer doesn't CC, tries to find his partner, and outs tomorrow. If he's Mafia who claims Seer, he's 100% dead tonight.

If he claims seer, he gives last night's results, and we'll find out whether he's telling the truth tomorrow.

This if we're lynching. But we should no lynch.

Pedit: Ninja'd lol

[Vedith]

VOTE: No lynch
Changed my mind. I don't trust Auro

[Bambi Jay]

Yeah, claiming Seer is the optimal Scum strat. But I didn't wanna be boring so I wasnt claiming that.

Why would you try to out the Seer when you're MAFIA???

Because I'm a Serial Killer and care not how this ends, but enjoy the revelry that you can't predict what the fuck I'm doing.

Pedit: HEY Dinguses. Don't back out now. The heck are ya doin?

[brassherald]

In all this, my shaky town block has crumbled a bit, but yeah, I'd put more faith in my A50 TR than my Auro when push comes to shove.

[Almost50]

Pedits: Way too many posts to comment on, but I still believe in no-lynch here.

Town is devided.

UNVOTE:

[Auro]

A50's plan *greatly* benefits wolves no matter how it goes;
Maf NK - Lynch the other maf, leaves 5-1-2 and another NK leads to 4-1-2 or 5-0-2 which wolves will prolly win.
Villa NK - 4-3-2 which is less EV for Villa than today

[Auro]

A50's plan *greatly* benefits wolves no matter how it goes;
Maf NK - Lynch the other maf, leaves 5-1-2 and another NK leads to 4-1-2 or 5-0-2 which wolves will prolly win.
Villa NK - 4-3-2 which is less EV for Villa than today

[Bambi Jay]

Half of you guys aren't even town. Of course we're divided.

[Almost50]

Apparently the WWs pool is thinning down for the Seer if they're following closely (and I hope they are). Please do NOT respond to this post.

[Vedith]

Half of you guys aren't even town. Of course we're divided.

I'm town \o/

[brassherald]

A mafia lynch also greatly benefits the WWs here, and even if we assume Bambi is really mafia, I'm getting a WIFOM vibe from her.

[Auro]

Apparently the WWs pool is thinning down for the Seer if they're following closely (and I hope they are). Please do NOT respond to this post.

WW would be fighting FOR the No Lynch - not against - no?

[rosterfoster]

Wolves don't win unless they kill the seer. Because Seer can out d3 most likely and will probably have a couple of clears/guilties at least.

I'm not 4-3-2 is less EV. And in any case, EV today from no-lynch is also influenced by the other outcome (5-0-2 is so favourable to town).

[Auro]

A mafia lynch also greatly benefits the WWs here, and even if we assume Bambi is really mafia, I'm getting a WIFOM vibe from her.

McQueen I strongly think is wolf. Jay aside.

[brassherald]

Apparently the WWs pool is thinning down for the Seer if they're following closely (and I hope they are). Please do NOT respond to this post.

WW would be fighting FOR the No Lynch - not against - no?

Or, they would argue for a lynch of ANYONE THAT IS NOT THEM!

[Vedith]

WW would be fighting FOR the No Lynch - not against - no?

Depends if WW are being lynched or not.

[rosterfoster]

Auro you keep forgetting about the Seer. Please address this point.