Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!

[Auro]

(5-0-2 is so favourable to town)

5-0-2 is *massively* beneficial to scum, even with a cop.

[brassherald]

A mafia lynch also greatly benefits the WWs here, and even if we assume Bambi is really mafia, I'm getting a WIFOM vibe from her.

McQueen I strongly think is wolf. Jay aside.

I feel like this morning you were saying Jay was the best reason that McQueen was WW.

[rosterfoster]

A cop with 3 checks already? It's autowin if all the checks are still alive.

[Auro]

WW would be fighting FOR the No Lynch - not against - no?

Depends if WW are being lynched or not.

Yes, but that's not what I was addressing.

Can you tell me how A50's plan doesn't immensely benefit wolves in either scenario, as I outlined?

[Auro]

A mafia lynch also greatly benefits the WWs here, and even if we assume Bambi is really mafia, I'm getting a WIFOM vibe from her.

McQueen I strongly think is wolf. Jay aside.

I feel like this morning you were saying Jay was the best reason that McQueen was WW.

Yes, because P(Jay is Mafia) is pretty high. I'm talking about the possibility where he's WW - doesn't affect my McQueen push is what I'm saying.

[Almost50]

A50's plan *greatly* benefits wolves no matter how it goes;
Maf NK - Lynch the other maf, leaves 5-1-2 and another NK leads to 4-1-2 or 5-0-2 which wolves will prolly win.
Villa NK - 4-3-2 which is less EV for Villa than today

Please someone tell me this isn't yet another

explicit Mafia claim

.

If things go the way Auro's describing we'd have 2 Seer results by tomorrow. 2 innos ot 1 inno & 1 guilty. If we're lucky and the Seer isn't dead on N3, we'd have THREE results. Wirst case scenario is 3 innos + the Seer himself. Now how is this even winnable for the WWs regardless of whether it's 5-0-2 or 4-1-2?

[Auro]

A cop with 3 checks already? It's autowin if all the checks are still alive.

Hmm that's true, I mean in the case of all Mafia gone with also having 3 clears.

Yeah I'll think about this

[Auro]

If things go the way Auro's describing we'd have 2 Seer results by tomorrow. 2 innos ot 1 inno & 1 guilty. If we're lucky and the Seer isn't dead on N3, we'd have THREE results. Wirst case scenario is 3 innos + the Seer himself. Now how is this even winnable for the WWs regardless of whether it's 5-0-2 or 4-1-2?

Didn't account for Seer results, I wish you brought this up earlier.

[Auro]

As I said before, if I'm the only person who thinks a no-lynch is bad, I'll stop arguing and support a NL.

[rosterfoster]

Do you still think a no-lynch is bad, now that you've realised about the Seer?

[Auro]

Gut says no, but I'm re-evaluating.

Wolf!A50 would probably favor a lynch to hit seer here, because the seer would be his biggest theat; so my paranoia there has gone down a little bit.

[BuJaber]

Okay so I thought about this a lot, and I won't bore you with the number of times Iswitched between thinking aura is right to A50 and vice versa.

Suffice to say I'm not the best at math, but I believe the person who is the closest to getting it right is roster.

I think the best thing for town today is to lynch mafia.

[Auro]

Okay so I thought about this a lot, and I won't bore you with the number of times Iswitched between thinking aura is right to A50 and vice versa.

None of my arguments account for the seer, I forgot about that entirely which invalidates them. :$

Also Auro*!

[Auro]

Can you explain why a Maf Lynch is better? General thought seems to be that they'd shoot the claimed mafia; although since Seer is a larger threat they might try to lynch outside that.

[BuJaber]

Why?

Because the biggest flaw in Aura's plan is ignoring the threat that 3 mafia would pose to town. WW's fear the seer. They are not guaranteed to shoot Bambi (or any other mafia for that matter).

And the biggest flaw in A50's plan is underestimating the effect of multiball on the wagons. Mafia can't exercise their power effectively in fear of exposing themselves to the wolves. Also at 3-3-2 town have no incentive to actually lynch wolves, and whether or not the wolves openwolf or not, mafia will have a hard time dodging the lynch there.

The really valuable play here is guaranteeing we don't kill seer. That what was one of the things that made me want to no lynch. But why risk starting tomorrow with 3 mafia alive. WWs are not yet forced to shoot mafia BECAUSE THE SEER IS ALIVE.

Lynch mafia. Flip helps with associatives. Tomorrow ratio is either 4-2-2 or 5-1-2. With just 1 guilty the game becomes very easy for town. Even 1 true clear would be very empowering, but that's pretty circumstantial. 2 clears with 2 mafia alive is probably good enough odds though.

So in conclusion, it's bambi lynching time. VOTE: Bambi

Also I like the new brass so much. The guy insisting on ignoring posts because of a technicality and getting angry at people for reacting to game-relevant option was imo a must-lynch.

[BuJaber]

@Aura - yeah okay I typed this before you admitted your mistake.

Anyway above is why we lynch mafia.

[rosterfoster]

I think the best thing for town today is to lynch mafia.

Best thing is to lynch Werewolf. Lynching mafia means it's unlikely (unlikelier than a no lynch - I can explain why if you want) there's a town majority tomorrow, which is important because in a 4-2-2 situation mafia may legitimately elect to lynch town, and then the game is over for us). I know it seems counterintuitive, but 4-3-2 is a *better* possible situation than 4-2-2 for two reasons:

-It's less likely to happen (4-3-2 or 4-2-2 are worst possible outcomes IMO from either play).
-From 4-2-2 we either end up in 5p lylo with no cop and potentially just seer as clear which is shit ( 3-2-0. I would imagine we have almost 0 chance of winning that), 2-1-1 which is better but still not great, or we lose. And the two not-lose scenarios are somewhat Grim. In 4-3-2 the extra maf means that 4-1-2 is possible, and also I'm not convinced 3-2-2 is worse than 3-2-0.

Sorry if it's a bit confusing, but I firmly believe that we should no lynch.

[brassherald]

I think the best thing for town today is to lynch mafia.

Best thing is to lynch Werewolf. Lynching mafia means it's unlikely (unlikelier than a no lynch - I can explain why if you want) there's a town majority tomorrow, which is important because in a 4-2-2 situation mafia may legitimately elect to lynch town, and then the game is over for us). I know it seems counterintuitive, but 4-3-2 is a *better* possible situation than 4-2-2 for two reasons:

-It's less likely to happen (4-3-2 or 4-2-2 are worst possible outcomes IMO from either play).
-From 4-2-2 we either end up in 5p lylo with no cop and potentially just seer as clear which is shit ( 3-2-0. I would imagine we have almost 0 chance of winning that), 2-1-1 which is better but still not great, or we lose. And the two not-lose scenarios are somewhat Grim. In 4-3-2 the extra maf means that 4-1-2 is possible, and also I'm not convinced 3-2-2 is worse than 3-2-0.

Sorry if it's a bit confusing, but I firmly believe that we should no lynch.

Can we clarify whether the last number always indicates the mafia in your sets?

[BuJaber]

Can you walk me through the scenarios you are calling auto - lose because I'm not seeing it? WW would never intentionally shoot town if it will give mafia the win. I'm not sure how 4-2-2 + mislynch = town loss.

[rosterfoster]

Last number is WW sorry. If others weren't the same we might have been talking at cross-purposes :O.

From 4-2-2 we mislynch, WW shoots town 2-2-2. Only way to not lose is lynch WW, WW shoots mafia, 2-1-1 as I said.

From 4-2-2 we lynch WW twice, WW shoots mafia is only way to avoid 50% mafia, so 3-2-0 is only possibility.

I don't see any other way to not lose? I could be wrong of course.

[rosterfoster]

I was slightly wrong when I said 4-2-2 is game over. It's just very grim.

[brassherald]

Can you walk me through the scenarios you are calling auto - lose because I'm not seeing it? WW would never intentionally shoot town if it will give mafia the win. I'm not sure how 4-2-2 + mislynch = town loss.

Well, then we end up with 3-2-2, 4 votes needed to lynch.

Scenarios are a successful town motivated lynch here, by the way.

So, all town needs to be on the same page PLUS, one faction needs to help us.

Assuming a correct lynch after that, we end up going into the night with 3-1-2.

Scenario 1: A Mafia gets killed 3-1-1, 3 needed to lynch. Need town all on the same page to lynch correctly.

Scenario 1A: We lynch last WW, we end up with 3-0-1, no NK. 25% chance to hit the mafia, moves up to 33.33333% after a mislynch.

Scenario 1A is already not an autoloss, so, I disagree on that number already.

Scenario 1B: We lynch the last Mafia. 3-1-0. Wake up with 2-1-0 so, 33.333333% chance to win.

Okay, stopping here with the butterfly effect shit. I think finding the WW team is better for us.

[brassherald]

Okay, stopping here with the butterfly effect shit. I think finding the WW team is better for us.

This just circles back to BuJaber saying a Mafia lynch is best today.

[rosterfoster]

Well, then we end up with 3-2-2, 4 votes needed to lynch.

If we lynch today then that is the situation going into a night. If we no lynch, then (assuming everything else is the same), that is the situation going into a day (from 5-2-2 mislynch or 4-3-2 maf lynch). I think that's an important point to remember.

[BuJaber]

4-2-2 is a day start ratio, so 3-2-2 cannot be day again unless no lynch is hammerred.