Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!

Auro · Post Post #800 (ISO) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:55 pm

In post 792, ajfefijsleifjsa wrote:just a reminder that we are at 4t/3m/2w
we no longer have the majority. I say we lynch Bambi just to get a scum out of the way

I don't like this pop-in. I don't recall the Hydra taking part in any plans yesterday, they silently supported a No-Lynch; this post kinda reads as that they decided on this agenda overnight

Auro · Post Post #801 (ISO) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:57 pm

In post 797, Almost50 wrote:mcqueen (might be Mafia)

Question I meant to ask: Why Mafia?
Mafia and town both have incentive to scumhunt, lack of scumhunting should be the biggest wolf indicator - what McQueen was doing.

Also now your reason for me being Mafia is saying "virtually unlynchable"?

Auro · Post Post #802 (ISO) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:05 pm

Also walk me through your BuJaber WW read; and also why you're not considering WW!Jay anymore.

BuJ has been one of the towniest players to me so far in terms of genuineness and depth of thought. If your basis for it is him not sheeping you on yesterday's plan, that's a bad reason.

And Jay because he didn't NK you? You admit Jay is very complex a player, I'll be surprised if this is why you eliminate that possibility.

Almost50 · Post Post #803 (ISO) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:35 pm

In post 798, Auro wrote:Should the seer out themselves and claim results?

If they have a guilty OR if both their innos are still alive then they probably should.

In post 799, Auro wrote:
In post 797, Almost50 wrote:mcqueen (might be Mafia)
I'll not really fight an Egix lynch since he has > rand scum equity and all his votes seem to be on town (assuming brass is also town)

But I want a McQueen lynch today, the case on him seems stronger.

I said I was trying to lynch a WW, and my bread on mqueen is "might be mafia". Convince me that he could be a WW and I might vote there.

Almost50 · Post Post #804 (ISO) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:43 pm

In post 801, Auro wrote:Question I meant to ask: Why Mafia?
Mafia and town both have incentive to scumhunt, lack of scumhunting should be the biggest wolf indicator - what McQueen was doing.

Also now your reason for me being Mafia is saying "virtually unlynchable"?

Everyone does. WWs also want to identify Mafia.

mqueen is more likely Mafia than a WW because of his overall voting/posting behavior. He only voted ONCE and kept his vote on Clemency on D1, and never voted on D2 or even tried to engage. Since we had a good chunk of D2 discussing Bambi (and you) as Mafia I took that to be a sign of not wanting to touch the subject so as not to get dragged into it. His overall play strikes me as "anti-town" but I think it's mire likely to come from Mafia. It also serves to draw the Seer's attention to go that silent, which a WW doesn't want to do but a Mafioso would be happy to be "cleared" under the circumstances.

Almost50 · Post Post #805 (ISO) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:50 pm

In post 801, Auro wrote:Also now your reason for me being Mafia is saying "virtually unlynchable"?

In post 629, Almost50 wrote:3- I forgot what the third was

Almost50 · Post Post #806 (ISO) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:56 pm

In post 802, Auro wrote:Also walk me through your BuJaber WW read; and also why you're not considering WW!Jay anymore.

Mate, as for Jay.. if I was a Seer and saw him (or anyone else) do this I would have checked him N1. Jay does not do THIS as WW. Period.

As for BuJ, well out of this list he, brass and Jay most familiar with my play. Not shooting me for 2 successive nights = the WWs know I'm not the Seer. Otherwise, I should have been shot on N1.

Now I am calling Jay a Mafioso and TRing brass. Where does this leave us? Unless Vedith was shot because the WWs thought I was Mafia and assumed he would be my partner I don't see why I survived the NK twice.

Auro · Post Post #807 (ISO) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:21 pm

Both factions would "hunt" for the other, but in different fashions. To the wolves, the Mafia are equivalent to Masons. Given Mafia have high incentive to eliminate wolves, I believe their pushes would be genuine, whereas Wolves would have to fabricate their cases and follow an agenda - this creates an assymmetry in what constitutes "hunting" to each faction.

Egix's ISO does show *some* scumhunting (although bad votes) which, from experience with Egix I feel are genuine -- he even takes part in yesterday's discussion questioning why McQueen -- so while he has some scum equity by virtue of not obvtowning as much as town!Egix usually does, I think it's not as much as McQueen does.

McQueen's not posting isn't deliberate IMO - simply that so far, nothing has happened that poses any significant danger to wolves, so I feel like he simply ignored the thread. He was posting in other games, and even this game day has been active elsewhere but absent here.

The strongest reason for him not being Mafia is the Speedwagon on him last game day - which, as I recall, had Brass, Vedith and Me hopping on it. Why would Maf!Jay bus his partner in that situation? And from your perspective, A50, why would BOTH other mafia bus him, especially with one Mafia outed?

Auro · Post Post #808 (ISO) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:24 pm

In post 805, Almost50 wrote:
In post 801, Auro wrote:Also now your reason for me being Mafia is saying "virtually unlynchable"?

In post 629, Almost50 wrote:3- I forgot what the third was

Weak reason. It was a tongue-in-cheek comment. Only Maf motivation I can think of is to ward off a NK - but it's within town motivation to do that too, and I was pretty aware that there were players likelier to be NK'd.

Auro · Post Post #809 (ISO) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:27 pm

In post 806, Almost50 wrote:As for BuJ, well out of this list he, brass and Jay most familiar with my play. Not shooting me for 2 successive nights = the WWs know I'm not the Seer. Otherwise, I should have been shot on N1.

I'm a little confused - if he's very familiar with your play, he's likely to NK you as Wolf - so not doing that implies he's not Wolf, right?

You're applying that logic to clear Jay from being Wolf; while when it comes to BuJ you say Wolves know you're not seer.

Interchange Jay with BuJ in your reasoning and why doesn't that hold?

Auro · Post Post #810 (ISO) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:29 pm

In post 807, Auro wrote:The strongest reason for him not being Mafia is the Speedwagon on him last game day - which, as I recall, had Brass, Vedith, Bambi Jay* and Me hopping on it. Why would Maf!Jay bus his partner in that situation? And from your perspective, A50, why would BOTH other mafia bus him, especially with one Mafia outed?

Corrected.

Egix96 · Post Post #811 (ISO) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:35 pm

Ajfe's first two posts this phase are terrible IMO

Also I'm feeling super paranoid about both Auro and A50

I'm a bit busy rn so I'll be back later

Egix96 · Post Post #812 (ISO) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:54 pm

Also I don't get why people think BH is town now

AFAIR all he's done this game is complain about the game not being fun, and tunnel me

brassherald · Post Post #813 (ISO) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:58 pm

@Bambi after twilight yesterday, I'm surprised you aren't pushing A50 anything change?

@Egix I'm just super attractive in green and everyone knows it.

brassherald · Post Post #814 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:00 am

Also, my town block from yesterday still stands, by the way.

Egix96 · Post Post #815 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:19 am

I've had a look through Vedith's Iso to see what his reads were like.

Near the end of D2 he was starting to suspect Auro so him dying is suggestive of Auro being a wolf
He liked brassherald's towncore post, but I wouldn't say that means BH doesn't kill Vedith since Ved was suspecting me late D1, which would fit wolf!herald's agenda.

Auro · Post Post #816 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:49 am

@Brass: I don't care for your townblock much ATM, I want to lynch a wolf - I've described why McQueen is a better lynch than Egix and why McQueen is prob not Mafia. Comments?

@Egix: Way to throw shade at four slots in two posts. In what world am I a wolf with my D2 play, waging an all out war against a likely townslot over a move that arguably benefits wolf!me?

brassherald · Post Post #817 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:53 am

In post 816, Auro wrote:@Brass: I don't care for your townblock much ATM, I want to lynch a wolf - I've described why McQueen is a better lynch than Egix and why McQueen is prob not Mafia. Comments?

You don't like the town block because you aren't in it.

Also, McQueen is not in the town block, but since the last day there have been changes in how I view him that suggest he may just be bad at being town which I cannot discuss further.

Auro · Post Post #818 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:56 am

Being bad at town =/= refusing to participate.

brassherald · Post Post #819 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:58 am

In post 818, Auro wrote:Being bad at town =/= refusing to participate.

Evidence suggests otherwise.

Auro · Post Post #820 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:59 am

In post 819, brassherald wrote:
In post 818, Auro wrote:Being bad at town =/= refusing to participate.
Evidence suggests otherwise.

Is this evidence you cannot provide, or a general observation? If it's the latter I'll disagree.

brassherald · Post Post #821 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:01 am

In post 820, Auro wrote:
In post 819, brassherald wrote:
In post 818, Auro wrote:Being bad at town =/= refusing to participate.
Evidence suggests otherwise.
Is this evidence you cannot provide, or a general observation? If it's the latter I'll disagree.

The former.

Auro · Post Post #822 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:03 am

I'll check for myself - what I do see is that McQueen has been in a few games, and has nearly zero-posted here while active in other places.

Auro · Post Post #823 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:05 am

Meh - On a cursory glance I'm not able to reach the same evidence you're claiming to have. I'll do a more thorough check later.

ajfefijsleifjsa · Post Post #824 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:10 am

who wants to lynch bambi