Anime U-Pick: King Size [SEASON FINALE...?]

[mastina]

And by the way, I did the calculations.
It is possible to lynch Almost50.
Myself, Joan, Cerb, Amzela, Elena is 5/6 needed.
From there, any of Chito/Yuuri, Torque, or Pink Ball willing to vote there would be a hammer.

I'm not as sure I can get Near x Mello lynched today--there's myself and Joan, but I'm not sure I can count on the support of Cerb/Amzela or Elena; I'm even less sure I can get Chito/Yuuri, Torque, or Pink Ball there.

The alternative lynch is then, Elena--I can probably get Joan here, and Chito/Yuuri is a definitive, with Pink Ball as another supporter; 4/6 there, with a need for two from Cerb/Amzela, Torque, and Near x Mello.

Possible, but less desirable at this point.
Because I maintain my position.

Elena is possible scum.
I don't think she

is

scum, but she's possible scum. Being possible scum, who is scumread widely, and whose death would conftown Pink Ball when Pink Ball is unkillable, is a huge net benefit for the town--but I don't think she'll flip scum.

So (bleeped because bleep the mod)it, I'm going for it.
VOTE: Almost50.

(Pagetopping this because it is important.)

[mastina]

Honestly, NxM, I'm sort of willing to just lynch in mastinas pool and lynch her in LYLO if she's wrong.

Hey Cerb.

Really important I catch your attention with this.

You're good with mechanics right.

So what do you say about this?

Stop me at any point where you think I'm wrong--good luck, because I know I'm (bleeped because bleep the mod) right.

FACT: Dunnstral had an ability that, if he died, he would kill his attacker.
FACT: Dunnstral died.
FACT: Nobody else died, in spite of Dunnstral's ability to kill his attacker.
INFERRED FACT: Because nobody died while Dunnstral died, Dunnstral's killer had a form of immunity.

FACT: Abilities this game are very close matches to flavor, overall. Does anyone dispute that their abilities are appropriate for their character(s)? Because by and large, general consensus seems to be exactly that; flavor is closely tied to abilities generated.

INFERRED FACT: If scum have a form of immunity to death, they must have a flavor that would enable this.

Now I'm not familiar enough with all the characters to go through them and eliminate them on the basis of "doesn't have an ability which could give immunity", beyond the obvious that it's a fact Nozomi Tojo does not have any sort of flavor justification for kill immunity--neither possessing it herself nor having a way to grant it to others. (Not that that's possible, since scum can kill+action but can't kill+action+action and I was proven to use an action on Torque.)

However.
FACT: Kirito, Almost50's claimed character, has a

picture perfect

flavor justification which would grant him death immunity.
And this is a fact, because:

It was a one-shot ability, more specifically. At the end of the first part of Sword Art Online, where Kirito is confronting the first Big Bad.

The big bad

kills Kirito

.
But after having been killed.

Kirito refuses to die, and self-revives

.
I'm referring to this instance (spoilers abound). The scene, to be even more specific, is from here:

Skip to the 3:30 mark in the video, it starts there.

Kirito literally dies. But goes, "No. Not yet", essentially. And comes back from the dead.

THIS IS HOW THE SCUM WERE ABLE TO KILL DUNNSTRAL AND LIVE.

Because Kirito literally broke the rules of the game in order to win. And that makes

absolute sense

as having a scum ability.

You know FURTHER why Almost50 is scum? Because he has claimed generic bull(bleeped because bleep the mod) as his claimed night unlocks--nothing concrete, allowing him a level of plausible deniability.

This shows pretty definitively what I'm talking about.
This isn't stretching off of flavor.
This is matching KNOWN MECHANICS IN THE GAME and following them to the obvious conclusion.

(Also this.)

[mastina]

like its super obvious for everyone not joan that what i was saying was that you should be lynched before you manipulate people into townreading you
Joan takes that to mean "wisdom doesnt want mastina to obvtown"

The two are one and the same.
You can't pretend they're not.

Joan is absolutely right there.

[Near x Mello]

the two are not even close to each other

[Near x Mello]

You only have a single shot at redemption here, mastina.

Youre going to drop your nonsensical scumreads on me and almost, both of who are ridiculously obvtown by play, and youre going to help me figure out what combination of {RP, Elena, Chito} is the remaining scumteam.

As long as this is not happening my vote will remain on you and i dont particularly care about your alignment.

[Near x Mello]

Elena and Chito

I think this is not the team for two reasons

When almost wanted to push elena over mastina yesterday and was making plans to do so in ch5 chito agreed and encouraged it (before eventually returning to his pet gamma lynch)

And when i mentioned today i dropped my elena scumread because of elena's result chito was annoyed and cited a game where scum elena had given fake results

I don't think scum chito does those as scum with elena

[Cerberus v666]

Honestly, NxM, I'm sort of willing to just lynch in mastinas pool and lynch her in LYLO if she's wrong.

Hey Cerb.

Really important I catch your attention with this.

You're good with mechanics right.

So what do you say about this?

Stop me at any point where you think I'm wrong--good luck, because I know I'm (bleeped because bleep the mod) right.

FACT: Dunnstral had an ability that, if he died, he would kill his attacker.
FACT: Dunnstral died.
FACT: Nobody else died, in spite of Dunnstral's ability to kill his attacker.
INFERRED FACT: Because nobody died while Dunnstral died, Dunnstral's killer had a form of immunity.

FACT: Abilities this game are very close matches to flavor, overall. Does anyone dispute that their abilities are appropriate for their character(s)? Because by and large, general consensus seems to be exactly that; flavor is closely tied to abilities generated.

INFERRED FACT: If scum have a form of immunity to death, they must have a flavor that would enable this.

Now I'm not familiar enough with all the characters to go through them and eliminate them on the basis of "doesn't have an ability which could give immunity", beyond the obvious that it's a fact Nozomi Tojo does not have any sort of flavor justification for kill immunity--neither possessing it herself nor having a way to grant it to others. (Not that that's possible, since scum can kill+action but can't kill+action+action and I was proven to use an action on Torque.)

However.
FACT: Kirito, Almost50's claimed character, has a

picture perfect

flavor justification which would grant him death immunity.
And this is a fact, because:

It was a one-shot ability, more specifically. At the end of the first part of Sword Art Online, where Kirito is confronting the first Big Bad.

The big bad

kills Kirito

.
But after having been killed.

Kirito refuses to die, and self-revives

.
I'm referring to this instance (spoilers abound). The scene, to be even more specific, is from here:

Skip to the 3:30 mark in the video, it starts there.

Kirito literally dies. But goes, "No. Not yet", essentially. And comes back from the dead.

THIS IS HOW THE SCUM WERE ABLE TO KILL DUNNSTRAL AND LIVE.

Because Kirito literally broke the rules of the game in order to win. And that makes

absolute sense

as having a scum ability.

You know FURTHER why Almost50 is scum? Because he has claimed generic bull(bleeped because bleep the mod) as his claimed night unlocks--nothing concrete, allowing him a level of plausible deniability.

This shows pretty definitively what I'm talking about.
This isn't stretching off of flavor.
This is matching KNOWN MECHANICS IN THE GAME and following them to the obvious conclusion.

(Also this.)

If I thought you were definitely wrong, I would have told you so.:p

Not so sure about how he can see in different channels though, I don't buy that working with the flavor.

You are also missing another fact: the flavor list I collected is from before the end of D3. It's possible any/all of these people changed roles at the time the kill on Dunnstral went through.

If Iwere really on top of my game I would have forced a full claim of flavor choices from everyone on D1, without anyone claiming which one they had actually ended up with. :/

@NXM: I can only be scum in scenarios where at least one of the following is true:

C&Y is scum.
I role copped c&y last night, risking death to confirm they were not actually the pgo role still.
I have a protective on me/protective psssive, and thus targeted them fearlessly.
Some other means that does not involve targeting made me aware that I could target C&Y fearlessly.

In your world, the only reasonable scum teams are:

C&Y/RP
C&Y/Elena
Either of the above, plus one additional.

[Cerberus v666]

Also, fyi, I'm happy voting for any of A50,Elena, C&Y if they don't stop being so difficult in our pt(because really, they should have claimed to me and started sincerely working to solve the game instead of rolefishing me, the person who took the risk of just dying outright to target them), and NxM.

[Near x Mello]

scum are guaranteed to have someone immune to reflexive kills as proven by the dunn kill

so you/elena still works

but i do think you/chito makes more sense

[Cerberus v666]

Yes, if you assume I'm the slot with the passive, and the one who submitted the kill, and said passive was unlimited or at least multiple shot.

Oh, and that my team would be given a double voter on D4.

[Cerberus v666]

I do think that a scum team that could safely kill someone with a reflexive kill enough times that they used it on someone they did not know had a reflexive kill would have killed C&Y over dunnstral though, so I sorta agree with you on that.

[Near x Mello]

did you do the hood thing during the day or the night?

[Cerberus v666]

Ask C&Y. It would be good to have them actually speak up about this.

[Near x Mello]

because if it was the night it's not unlimited or multiple shots

it's just a "on n3, you are immune" thing and it applies to both of your targets

[mastina]

So to summarize where I am coming from:
Pink Ball was obvtown from D1 play plus Vedith, elevated from obvtown to conftown via Elena--nobody disputes this read so I don't need to explain it further.
Reasonably Psychotic was obvtown from SuperfluousNinja (not to mention is a likely target of that ability), elevated from obvtown to conftown via Chito and Yuuri--this is not a read which needs explaining because this is self-resolving given the appropriate time.
Torque is universally townread by everyone--I don't need to explain this townread because everyone agrees with it.
Joan is universally townread by everyone--I don't need to explain this townread because everyone agrees with it.
Since I know I am town, that leaves four remaining slots, containing two scum.

{Almost50, Near x Mello, Elena Fisher, Chito and Yuuri}.

Chito and Yuuri were the hardest pressers of Vedith. Nobody pushed Vedith harder or more consistently than they did. If you want proof, check this out. I conveniently highlighted Vedith for you so you can see it.
But if you look at them, their read was there even before Vedith held the slot:

That make me wonder -- Apathetic town or scum that didn't get excited about their role PM:
Super Smash Bros. Fan
Elena Fisher
What do you guys think? Which out of SSBF and Elena is busy town and which is scum that doesn't like their role PM?

Chito: VOTE: SSBF

Looking at the players list I don't seem to recall anything Super Smash Bros. Fan or Maria have posted. Checking the activity it's no wonder as each has only posted once (and Maria even did it under an alt). Could the two of you please step into the center of the stage and perform a first dance?

VOTE: SSBF
-Yuuri

Chito: Join us on smash
VOTE: smash

Chito: Guys let's all join hands and get on this SMASHING wagon :3

I guess we go back to this then
VOTE: Smash

Chito: It doesn't dramatically move me either way. I liked a few things a little bit but the "should I claim thing?" seemed just a bit more like how I feel scum would react to replacing into a scum slot under pressure than town. I wouldn't say it pings me really hard, though. Smash pinged me, I didn't townread the replace, and no, I'm not townreading Vedith's entrance.
I just a little bit want to fight you on Rob too, but I don't have access to whatever he said in the PT that made you feel he was more townie I think
I certainly don't townread him for what he's said in Channel 5. (I don't scummread him for it either it's pure NAI)

This is the transition point, but notable: Robert as a peripheral scumread from Chito and Yuuri.
I'd like to point out how strongly anti-bussing these interactions are. Scum tend to fit into one of two molds; they either never ever ever release from the tunnel on their scumbuddy,

or

, they vote their scumbuddy but then quickly make excuses to get off and stay off. Chito and Yuuri got off...and back on...and back off...and back on...but stayed on more than off, and never made an excuse to STAY off. That is strongly indicative of town.

But let's continue pointing out Robert interactions as well.

We could sacrifice Robert to the Gods of the Post Count. This is an offering that would likely not offend the gods, although whether it would grant us a bountiful harvest is unclear. Such sacrifices tend to be erratic in quality, but do not tend to be significantly worse than other forms of offering.

Like you want to go yolo on Robert then that would be G, you want to help me figure out Elena's alignment that would be nice, but if I need to get a flip to resolve this thing between you and Near then it will be your flip.

Chito: To be clear, our vote hasn't moved from Morality yet because I want to talk to Yuuri about Elena's argument on Clem vs. Dunn's case on Robert in our hydra PT; also, perhaps, I very slightly want him lynched for talking shit about Nancy and so I wouldn't mind lynching him out of spite. But I'm not particularly optimistic he flips red at this point.

These I admit are not outside the realm of scum distancing, by the very same metric I established earlier; not joining the wagon there. But when you look at Chito and Yuuri's stances as a whole, their entire thought process is more or less transparent.

Across the whole game, they have shown a reasonable, logical train of thought, where they have outlined their thought process clearly and unambiguously. They have been asking questions that have moved the game forward in a clearly understandable, town-motivated way. They have been open, they have established dialogs, they have tried talking to people and bridging gaps, getting people on the same page, and I can quote literally dozens of examples of this from their iso.

They were literally the hardest pushers of Vedith being scum. They were on the peripheral supporting Robert as scum. They have had a trajectory of their reads easy to follow; you can understand how they got from point A to point B, and there's plenty of reasonable conclusions to be had in their thoughts.

So with that townread established.

You get to the magic 3.
{Elena, Near x Mello, Almost50}.

Elena Fisher, I don't believe is scum for one simple reason:
She doesn't fit as a scumbuddy with either of the two remaining names in the POE.
Near x Mello has been pushing her as scum for the whole game.
She and Almost50 have been antagonistic with one another to almost the same degree as I have been.

But beyond that, since others' POE pools include Chito and Yuuri for some weird reason when Chito and Yuuri are literally as obvtown as obvtown gets this game.
The way she played her role was town-indicative. She had no reason to claim it in the first place; she had no reason to use it to clear Pink Ball. In doing so, she not only made an unkillable conftown, but also placed her head in the chopping block, because in order to verify said unkillable town as conftown she'd need to be lynched.

These are some fairly compelling reasons, but they aren't enough to clear her the same way Chito and Yuuri are cleared, or any of the others are cleared. They are enough to put her out of my immediate focus.

Near x Mello fits as being scum, because if you look at

their

stances, they are pretty much the opposite of Chito and Yuuri.

ooba(5)

~ Dunnstral, Spike and Jet, Elena Fisher, Clemency, Gamma Emerald

ooba(4)

~ Dunnstral(4), Spike and Jet(37), Elena Fisher(12), Toogeloo(29)

Spike and Jet(5)

~ Severa(262), singletonking(45), Ankamius(150), Dunnstral(53), Gamma Emerald(88)

ooba(4)

~ Elena Fisher(12), Toogeloo(29), Spike and Jet(104), Near x Mello(260)

Creature

(9)

~ Severa(262), singletonking(45), Ankamius(149), Dunnstral(53), Gamma Emerald(51), Near x Mello(266), Pink Ball(34), Elena Fisher(30), Joan of Arc(100)

--

HAMMER

Gamma Emerald(3)

~ Reasonably Psychotic(25), Chito and Yuuri(37), Torque(30)

ooba(2)

~ Creature(104), Toogeloo(31)

Severa(1)

~ mastina(25)
Not Voting (2): Almost50(88), ooba(2)

When the ooba wagon was at its peak, Near x Mello were voting the other wagon. (I'd say counterwagon but technically I believe the Morality wagon came before the ooba wagon.) It was only after the ooba wagon was not at its peak that Near x Mello joined--yet they switched votes to Spike and Jet when the ooba wagon was picking up steam a second time. Had they stayed on ooba, the ooba wagon would've been larger than the Spike/Jet wagon.

They avoided voting ooba when it really counted--the thing which they accused me of doing.

Then on D3...

VOTE: rp
~Near

@RP
mastina and myself aren't touching you, I think

Why is RP town?
~Near

your just trying to discredit me, thats what youre doing
~Near

^subtly saying "this guy was wrong on severa, you shouldn't listen"
~Near

also spike & jet are also flipped and town
so far youve been 0/3
~Near

AND YET YOU'RE VOTING THE SAME PERSON AS THEM.
-Yukiteru

Ok so anyway, let me give you more of an actual introduction....

The only player I know here is Almost50 who I played with a few months ago. Otherwise the rest of you probably don’t know me and I don’t know you. Personally I don’t view this as a problem because I give 0 shits about meta and any meta-analysis. My reads are always entirely based on the situation and the motivations behind them. In fact it always amuses me to no end when people freely hand out playbooks to the scum team when they openly discuss “behavior X is towny of him and behavior Y is scummy”. So don’t count on me participating in any meta analysis here.

I have a few gut reactions but keep in mind that I didn’t officially inherit this role until late-ish last night and have only had about 2 hours to read up on over 3000 posts. My reads will come eventually. It does also help simply to get involved so I’m hoping to poke my head in a lot during these first few real-life days to get a better sense of you all.

Finally, anime is just an excuse for adults to keep watching cartoons and I don’t know a damn thing about anime. Shoot me.

Alright as if there were really any question...

VOTE: SuperfluousNinja.
Robert was playing in a way which loosely suggested he was scum, and the flake reeked of being an apathetic scum flakeout.
ooba's utter in-and-out without so much of a word of analysis reeked of being an apathetic scum flakeout.
And this entrance is a scum entrance.

mastina youve been wrong on both toog and fl. Is it time to apply bop yet?
~Near

that statement by rp was awful. SN has barely been here to know which wagon is likely to go through
Seeing you agree is more awful
~Near

how does a mastina/rp/elena team sound, guys?
Mastina pushes rp but forgets about it and starts tunneling town, and keeps elena as a townread for bs reasons. Elena and rp already made sense as buddies. I like it.
~Near

i dont agree youre "the most viable counterwagon", thats your own manipulative words to make your point
~Near

VOTE: SuperflousNinja

this lynch is stupid
theres no way both mastina and rp are town and theyre both content lynching this
~Near

page reminder that scumteam is mastina/rp/elena
everyone else is town
~Near

Do you think the constant lack of information on SN's part makes them town? I noticed they're not in your scumreads rn. In fact your scumpool looks remarkably different than from yesterday, explain.

yes sn posts and the fact both mastina and rp are pushing them for shit reasons have made sn a townread
My reads are the same as yesterday + mastina
~Near

eod2 was rc/ooba/rp
With rc flipping town that became ooba/rp/elena with mastina as a possibility but Elena+ooba didnt quite fit
and now im at mastina/rp/elena which fits perfectly
~Near

There's more.

VOTE: mastina
don't feel like lynching vedith anymore so I'll vote who mello wants
~Near

I can also vote drixx if he gains more traction

when i dont want a vedith lynch anymore everyone votes vedith

torque this is bs
The starfish claim is elaborate enough that there is zero doubt its provided
And his flavor matches the claim
Its not made up. Whether a real role or a provided fakeclaim, its the mod's mistake.
~Near

Remember the mold I used to describe what scum do?

They look for an excuse to get off the wagon.

Near x Mello absolutely did. And even when rejoining,

i dont get it but whatever
VOTE: vedith
~Near

He does so only after Vedith couldn't have escaped.

This is the pattern of scum distancing but avoiding the bus--when momentum builds on the scum, Near x Mello bailed from them.

The exact pattern of a scumbuddy.

Almost50, however, is who I'm trying to lynch, and deserves his own post.

[mastina]

the flavor list I collected is from before the end of D3. It's possible any/all of these people changed roles at the time the kill on Dunnstral went through.

But we know Almost50 did not.

If Almost50 changed his role, he wouldn't still have the posting restriction of being unable to post for the first howeverlongitis days of the game.

So we KNOW he is still Kirito.

[Cerberus v666]

I don't actually see why Elena can't be scum fake claiming the weak modifier.

Yes, she gives town a virtual conftown, but that conftown is lost if she is flipped...basically in a 3p lylo with her, the conftown she created, and another player...she nearly always gets the lynch on that third individual.

Pedit: untrue. His new role could have that same restriction. It is unlikely though, so yes, evidence he did not change his role.

Did he previously state he wouldn't be able to talk on D4? I thought he had said it was D5 next.

[Near x Mello]

nope, he said it was every day

[Near x Mello]

But when you look at Chito and Yuuri's stances as a whole, their entire thought process is more or less transparent.

Across the whole game, they have shown a reasonable, logical train of thought, where they have outlined their thought process clearly and unambiguously. They have been asking questions that have moved the game forward in a clearly understandable, town-motivated way. They have been open, they have established dialogs, they have tried talking to people and bridging gaps, getting people on the same page, and I can quote literally dozens of examples of this from their iso.

They have had a trajectory of their reads easy to follow; you can understand how they got from point A to point B, and there's plenty of reasonable conclusions to be had in their thoughts.

None of these are valid reasons for a townread. It's just you praising a playstyle.

[Near x Mello]

Elena Fisher, I don't believe is scum for one simple reason:
She doesn't fit as a scumbuddy with either of the two remaining names in the POE.

Because she isn't scum with either of these. Because your PoE is wrong.

Consider Elena/Chito and Elena/RP and come back.

[Near x Mello]

also i am having a really hard time accepting how shallow youre being

"Elena is not scum with Wisdom because he has been pushing her the whole game"
"Wisdom makes sense as scum with Vedith because he wasnt pushing him"

Bussing is a thing, and a thing I do all the time. You cant tell me you dont know that.

[Near x Mello]

And same goes for your "Chito pushed Vedith" and "RP pushed SN" simplifications

[Near x Mello]

VOTE: chito

[Joan of Arc]

I understand that you gamethrew Symphonic Metal. That's all I need to understand, cos if you're town here, history is gonna repeat itself.

See, I can even use your emoji for emphasis.

[Joan of Arc]

But then whatever. I'll just oust your partner first.

VOTE: Almos50

Phos says vote here. Please listen to Phos.