In post 440, Slaxx wrote:It’s possible and probably probable (lol?) that there’s 3.
But 13->12 means one less mislynch on average, so 2 could be a thing if town isnt stacked.
The whole reason I liked Ausuka’s two scum analysis is because it seemed like it was a lack of information on how many scum there are.
But 12 makes 2 more possible so it could be tmi.
I’m moving Ausuka down to lean town I think, the rest of their play has still been Townie. That’s just giving me reservations.
But if this game really is 10vs2, I don't think that scum!Ausuka would have any motivation in correctly pointing out the fact that there are only two scum. If anything, it would be better for scum!her if everyone incorrectly believes that there are three scum rather than two. This would, for example, make it easier for her to justify having more scumreads which in-turn makes it easier for her to push mislynches. It's just all-around better for scum to keep town in the dark about this.
So it only makes sense for scum!Ausuka to do this if there are in fact three scum and she's trying to downplay the number of scum. I don't play a lot of closed-setup games, but I think that 10vs2 is more likely than 9vs3 due to the issue of there being one less mislynch compared to 10vs3 and also the fact that 11/12 confirmations were required to start this game, implying that at least one scum had to confirm (both of which were points brought up earlier in the game).
I know since making this post you have called Ausuka "so town" and you are overall townreading her over her play separate from this setup discussion issue, I'm just not seeing why you moved her from a townread down to a townlean at the time of this post.
But this setup discussion aside, I have Ausuka as a strong townread based on her overall play and her recent reversal on her stance towards Baezu. In particular:
In post 674, Ausuka wrote:Subject: Gameshow Mafia: Mafia PT
Baezu wrote:If I were town I’d say I’d be the scummiest if all of us, but I’m scum and people seem to think I’m town when I play scum...let’s see how this plays out but I do kind of like momo’s gambit
Ok so I might be being stupid but like I think this makes Baezu waay more likely to be town? Because this was on April 2, and I don't think she has much reason to say this specifically as scum and kind of misinform her team-mates?
UNVOTE:
I don't think that scum!Ausuka would make that kind of post and link to the Gameshow Mafia PT and help the derail the Baezu wagon if Baezu is town. Ausuka seems to be mostly a consensus townread, so if she is scum she could easily continue to tunnel town!Baezu and get her lynched and she would just come across as a townie "pushing her reads". So if Baezu is town, I think that implies that Ausuka is town as well. The only reason for scum!Ausuka to reverse her stance on Baezu is if they are scum together, which I think is unlikely. Ausuka's towny play aside, the GameShow Mafia PT was not released at the start of this game or when the Baezu wagon started, so it's not like scum!Ausuka could have pre-planned to link to that post to help dismantle the wagon against Baezu if they are scum together.