Mini Normal 2071 (Game Over!)

[u r a person 2]

and updated thoughts from HRG on Bob and Egix?

Hi HRG you did not respond to this and that made me sad. Please rectify

[High Risk Gamble]

and updated thoughts from HRG on Bob and Egix?

Hi HRG you did not respond to this and that made me sad. Please rectify

I originally thought it was my thoughts in general.
I've already stated on both, Egix even so after your post.

Nothing has changed from then and I'm waiting to see how Bob actions over Ausuka.

[u r a person 2]

Why doesn't egix look like scum here? @HRG

[bob3141]

So, if I'm reading you correctly, the result of your analysis is that you think Ausuka is scum?

I'm not trying to be dismissive, it's just a little tough for me to locate your conclusions

Not realy concluded yet. Ran out out of time as I started actualy looking into it.

[bob3141]

Rui lynch- Egix96 , u r a person 2 , High Risk Gamble , Exilon , Ausuka , Sashaddin - plus one dead CDB

not on lynch

bob3141 , skitter30 , Garmr , , Inferno390 ( Lil Uzi -confirmed townie )

As everyone knows CDB was on sash lynch. So why was he killed?

Naturaly mafia would want to avoid being isolated so wouldnt they want to kill someone off the lynch.

Now do we have 2 or 3 mafia. With day one confirmed townie we might have a strong town and thus the high number.

With teh max mafia were woudl we find them. Are they all on rui wagon or are some hiding off it.

Of those hiding I think only inferno and skitter could be mafia

.

post will go on

Well.
I really don’t know what to say about this.

I dont rule people out unless I prety much certain the person is town. Played with person that was very good a looking town when scum. So I always treat those I think are town or neutral with caution

[Ausuka]

hey ausuka what's ur read on exilon?

(other people are welcome to answer this too)

i think exilon is town. 717 and 1043 feel genuine to me like town genuinely trying to conduct some sort of investigation. the latter post does seem biased against egix but it seems more like town trying to make a case than scum doing the same: I think scum would be more likely to point suspicion to a few suspicious posts, rather than going through his entire ISO and searching for anything they can that would indicate egix!scum. that seems more like town trying to build a case to me.

sorry for not posting enough; i'm having trouble with this game because the only players i think are suspicious are sasha and bob and i don't even think they're scum together but that's not really an excuse and i'll try to get it together.

[Ausuka]

i can track his thought process from post to post and his posts holistically make sense as a whole
like i feel like i can understand how he's approaching the game

I feel like I can understand it too but I don't understand how that makes him town? Like, I think scum could easily decide to approach the game from an angle of "let's lynch sasha, and while we're at it i can tie people (hrg) to him to make it look less like i'm tunneling and more like i'm gamesolving."

[bob3141]

Ausuka post even looked like pre excuse for him jumping off. Yet not preventing him jumping it on a later date.

There even looks like posts were he is trying to fabricate fall guys for that lynch if sash turns out town. And if sash is his scum buddy it could give him an excuse to jump off. Ironicly him being that scum he is talking out

will need to check the early sash vote again as it might have been 5 at that point not 4. With urp2 being on it too

Now back to where i was. ( just to be clear I actualy dont know were this is heading )

On sash im think am I falling foul of logical falsey or was I right.

Now the lynch started to stall it 5 votes but why was this. Was it that a few of the mafia were already on, was sash scum or was scum hanging back.

If mafia were already on it then there woudl only be 2 options. And tahts urp2 and Ausuka.

I know im town and I certain Gamr is town. And as we all know lil is town.

---

So is either of those 2 scum or are they town. If they are both town and sash is town then why did he not get lynched


As even if mafia were hesitant to avoid hammering, wouldnt atleast one joined and maybe even a second hammered.


Thus so far my thinking is that one of urp2, ausuka and sash has to be scum. For day one to make any sense to me

So either we had some scum on the wagon already or a mafia member was beign wagoned.

(still not finished)

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Sashaddin

Ok so I'm much more comfortable here than on Garmr and there's no suspicious behaviour that I think I should try and build a new wagon on. I don't fully understand where scumreads on Garmr are coming from: the wagon so far is Sashaddin's vote which is really :v and Inferno's vote which is based on this:

God I don't want a last minute lynch on a spontaneous wagon.

God I don't want a last minute lynch on a spontaneous wagon.

why not tho

1 sash is going to flip scum.
2.less information than wagons that have been going all day.

Unless you wanna lynch inferno?

Given that the only “spontaneous wagon” going on is UR2, this reads suspiciously like scum worried that his partner is going to get lynched out of nowhere because the wagon he’s been pushing falls apart. Plus saying I should be lynched, especially when widely townread indicates to me that he’s scum that wants to get rid of me.

I think this is really shaky reasoning too: sure he says it's scum that's worried his partner gets lynched but... nothing seems to indicate that's actually the case. It's a possibility but nothing makes it more likely than Garmr just being town who doesn't want urap (a non-scumread) to be lynched over Sasha (a scumread.) Additionally if Garmr really wanted rid of Inferno he'd probably do it over the Night phase rather than try to lynch one of the hardest players in the list to lynch.

Otoh Sasha seems quite likely to flip scum for reasons I stated yesterday+the way he's using the kill to push Garmr here feels really wrong. I probably should've kept voting him yesterday lol, although chances are we would've lynched ruirui anyhow.

Not really understanding why you’re voting Sash here. Like at all.

what's there not to understand? i found the way he pushed garmr with the NK out of the gate suspect. i had reasons for suspecting him as outlined as 162 as well: that was earlygame but earlygame can be some of the most AI stuff in the game (as marathons can demostrate) and nothing has made that read go away.

[Ausuka]

Now im we assume atleast 2 are on it. ( were assuming one could be off for saftey )

this is a very dangerous starting assumption to make for no particular reason.

Now sach vote first stalled at 4 votes. Now if it as ausuka himself points out it could be stalled as scom scum are alreadon it

If that was the case then the only possible person at that point was Ausuka.

What? If I'm the only scum on the wagon, that's not a explanation for why scum wouldn't want to jump on the wagon. I've never seen scum be hesitant to jump on a wagon because one scumbuddy was already on it - and to be honest why would they be? Two, maybe I could see it, but not one.

[bob3141]

but just to be clear today I personly will only consider to vote for some on rui lynch. Using the numbers I have I reckon atleast 2 scum were on that wagon. If not all of them


Of those not on the rui lynch the only ones im not certain are as I said before are inferno and skitter.

With me feeling inferno is likely town an skitter im undecided.

[bob3141]

Now im we assume atleast 2 are on it. ( were assuming one could be off for saftey )

this is a very dangerous starting assumption to make for no particular reason.

Now sach vote first stalled at 4 votes. Now if it as ausuka himself points out it could be stalled as scom scum are alreadon it

If that was the case then the only possible person at that point was Ausuka.

What? If I'm the only scum on the wagon, that's not a explanation for why scum wouldn't want to jump on the wagon. I've never seen scum be hesitant to jump on a wagon because one scumbuddy was already on it - and to be honest why would they be? Two, maybe I could see it, but not one.

Will people let me finish lol

All what you quoted was the intial fact finding with presumtion of who is scum or not. I am finding it odd your getting jumpy

[bob3141]

All what you quoted was the intial fact finding with no presumtion of who is scum or not. I am finding it odd your getting jumpy

missed key word no in teh first sentance

[u r a person 2]

hey skitter,

Do you remember how I played D2 as scum last game when I was flailing trying to find direction?

See anything similar here?

Does it matter that scum wouldn't be solo at this point in the game like I was?

[Ausuka]

Ausuka post even looked like pre excuse for him jumping off. Yet not preventing him jumping it on a later date.

There even looks like posts were he is trying to fabricate fall guys for that lynch if sash turns out town. And if sash is his scum buddy it could give him an excuse to jump off. Ironicly him being that scum he is talking out

So what you're saying is, 800 is an excuse for jumping off, but not preventing me from jumping on Sahsa at a later date. I'm trying to fabricate a 'fall guy' for the lynch if Sasha is town. And if Sasha is my scumbuddy I'm looking for some sort of excuse to jump off? I'm finding this incredibly hard to follow.

You can call it an excuse if you want but I'm just giving my reasoning for changing votes in that post. I could have stuck to voting Sasha but we were running out of time, and that would lead to a no lynch.

The 'fall guy' comment is presumably talking about 292. I think you have to really be trying to see my posts this way, to be saying that. While I do establish a potential scumpool for if Sasha flips town, as well as if he flips scum, that's a perfectly sensible thing to do as town; I should be prepared for any flip. There's nothing that makes this scum setting up 'fall guys' rather than town just scumhunting. Besides, if I was scum voting town!Sasha and trying to survive after his mislynch why would I draw attention to the Sasha wagon, and say there should be multiple scum in there, when I myself am in that area? That's just asking for trouble. I would rather be directing attention to other players as scum.

I don't understand what you're talking about with looking for an excuse to jump off: this is my most consistent game in a long time, for me to be voting Sashaddin for practically all of d1, and until deadline where I felt I had to compromise or risk a nolynch over a lynch of a fairly scummy player, I don't make any comments that indicate I'd like to vote anyone else. I even checked to make sure I'm right, and I am.

I don't see how this is genuine analysis. It feels like you just picked a player to push and decided to case them, and you haven't mentioned any sort of gut ping from me or anything that would justify looking at my posts in such a biased way.

(also i'm a she)

pedit: No, I don't see why I should wait for you to finish all your VCA posting to talk about how I read into it - there's no particular reason to do that. You may say it's just initial fact finding or whatever but that doesn't mean that I have to ignore it and can't read into it. You're still making arbitrary assumptions to back your reads and you're stretching to justify a scumread on me based on these assumptions, but nobody is allowed to criticize it because you haven't finished your analysis? really?

[bob3141]

back to were i was

So atleast one of the three sash, Ausuka and urp2 have to be scum. All three coudl be or just one. From the simple logic

If the first 5 to vote sash were town and sash was town. Then why didnt 2 scum finish him off?

So either atleast one of the 5 was scum or sash was. Would they have joined a counter wagon or finished him off.


So that leaves me with ( urp2 and ausuka) vs sash (not excluding the possibility that sash is scum with scum bussing on him)

So now that we have the condition. I will no think on who of the 3 i think is most likely scum

[Ausuka]

So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?

I took some (work) time to parse all the threads. I might have missed something but here is a summary:

No reads on Garmr or CDB: Bob, Egix, Exilon

LUV: Garmr is town (876)
URAP2: Garmr is town (343, 418), no reads on CDB ever (?)
Garmr: CDB is scum (286)
Inferno: Garmr is scum, CDB is town. No specific posts, just the main trend of the thread.
Skitter: Garmr town (110) and CDB town (285)
Ausuka: CDB is town (212, 800)
Me: CDB as town, Garmr's alignement could be town but I'm not fully convinced yet. I don't know what to do with my vote on him...

So yeah, CDB came out slightly more townie than Garmr. It was not my impression until I did this. It's an interesting (and long) exercise to make, but it has benefits.
How many of those reads are real though, right? My theory of the nightkill doesn't hold water now I guess. I'll go back to (real) work and continue thinking about this.

What's your read on Garmr, Exilon?

So are you saying you kill CBH because allot of people though he was town?

I think this is a stretchy reason to push sasha also and looks forced. Sasha looks back and says that people townread CDB more than Garmr, and for whatever reason bob decides to take it as Sasha killing CDB because of that reason? This doesn't seem like a genuine interpretation of events.

VOTE: bob

I think I like this lynch more than Sashaddin now.

[bob3141]

So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?

I took some (work) time to parse all the threads. I might have missed something but here is a summary:

No reads on Garmr or CDB: Bob, Egix, Exilon

LUV: Garmr is town (876)
URAP2: Garmr is town (343, 418), no reads on CDB ever (?)
Garmr: CDB is scum (286)
Inferno: Garmr is scum, CDB is town. No specific posts, just the main trend of the thread.
Skitter: Garmr town (110) and CDB town (285)
Ausuka: CDB is town (212, 800)
Me: CDB as town, Garmr's alignement could be town but I'm not fully convinced yet. I don't know what to do with my vote on him...

So yeah, CDB came out slightly more townie than Garmr. It was not my impression until I did this. It's an interesting (and long) exercise to make, but it has benefits.
How many of those reads are real though, right? My theory of the nightkill doesn't hold water now I guess. I'll go back to (real) work and continue thinking about this.

What's your read on Garmr, Exilon?

So are you saying you kill CBH because allot of people though he was town?

I think this is a stretchy reason to push sasha also and looks forced. Sasha looks back and says that people townread CDB more than Garmr, and for whatever reason bob decides to take it as Sasha killing CDB because of that reason? This doesn't seem like a genuine interpretation of events.

VOTE: bob

I think I like this lynch more than Sashaddin now.

I see you like takign things out of context. To take an isolated part of a line of questioning and try and give it a spin

Changing me making a point that maybe those that killed CDB was a player or group of players that were claiming town reads on him. And sash actual responded well to the questioning in my book. Hence why Ive been looking at his bandwagon again. He made no slips with how he responded. The question was deliberately phrased. Rather then

Me sayign so you think CBD was killed because people were town reading him. the "so you" was in there to see if there was a slip with how he responded

[bob3141]

The differnce betwen

so you think he was killed becuase

and

so you killed him becuase

[bob3141]

Ausuka post even looked like pre excuse for him jumping off. Yet not preventing him jumping it on a later date.

There even looks like posts were he is trying to fabricate fall guys for that lynch if sash turns out town. And if sash is his scum buddy it could give him an excuse to jump off. Ironicly him being that scum he is talking out

So what you're saying is, 800 is an excuse for jumping off, but not preventing me from jumping on Sahsa at a later date. I'm trying to fabricate a 'fall guy' for the lynch if Sasha is town. And if Sasha is my scumbuddy I'm looking for some sort of excuse to jump off? I'm finding this incredibly hard to follow.

You can call it an excuse if you want but I'm just giving my reasoning for changing votes in that post. I could have stuck to voting Sasha but we were running out of time, and that would lead to a no lynch.

The 'fall guy' comment is presumably talking about 292. I think you have to really be trying to see my posts this way, to be saying that. While I do establish a potential scumpool for if Sasha flips town, as well as if he flips scum, that's a perfectly sensible thing to do as town; I should be prepared for any flip. There's nothing that makes this scum setting up 'fall guys' rather than town just scumhunting. Besides, if I was scum voting town!Sasha and trying to survive after his mislynch why would I draw attention to the Sasha wagon, and say there should be multiple scum in there, when I myself am in that area? That's just asking for trouble. I would rather be directing attention to other players as scum.

I don't understand what you're talking about with looking for an excuse to jump off: this is my most consistent game in a long time, for me to be voting Sashaddin for practically all of d1, and until deadline where I felt I had to compromise or risk a nolynch over a lynch of a fairly scummy player, I don't make any comments that indicate I'd like to vote anyone else. I even checked to make sure I'm right, and I am.

I don't see how this is genuine analysis. It feels like you just picked a player to push and decided to case them, and you haven't mentioned any sort of gut ping from me or anything that would justify looking at my posts in such a biased way.

(also i'm a she)

pedit: No, I don't see why I should wait for you to finish all your VCA posting to talk about how I read into it - there's no particular reason to do that. You may say it's just initial fact finding or whatever but that doesn't mean that I have to ignore it and can't read into it. You're still making arbitrary assumptions to back your reads and you're stretching to justify a scumread on me based on these assumptions, but nobody is allowed to criticize it because you haven't finished your analysis? really?

To be quite frank the hole thing looks like gambit.

You lynch rui but he turns out to be town.

You then help set a narative well mayve sash was after all

And then day 3 were down 2 townies and you simply say why i gave good reasons. It just looks like cunning play from you

sorry about the he.

[Exilon]

So Sash, if based on # of townreads, Garmr would have been the NK, why was CDB targeted instead?
Scum fakes townreads right? So from that logic, maybe CDB was killed instead because the number of true townreads was higher than Garmr?

What do you make of this? Could you induce something interesting from that analysis?

I took some (work) time to parse all the threads. I might have missed something but here is a summary:

No reads on Garmr or CDB: Bob, Egix, Exilon

LUV: Garmr is town (876)
URAP2: Garmr is town (343, 418), no reads on CDB ever (?)
Garmr: CDB is scum (286)
Inferno: Garmr is scum, CDB is town. No specific posts, just the main trend of the thread.
Skitter: Garmr town (110) and CDB town (285)
Ausuka: CDB is town (212, 800)
Me: CDB as town, Garmr's alignement could be town but I'm not fully convinced yet. I don't know what to do with my vote on him...

So yeah, CDB came out slightly more townie than Garmr. It was not my impression until I did this. It's an interesting (and long) exercise to make, but it has benefits.
How many of those reads are real though, right? My theory of the nightkill doesn't hold water now I guess. I'll go back to (real) work and continue thinking about this.

What's your read on Garmr, Exilon?

So are you saying you kill CBH because allot of people though he was town?

I think this is a stretchy reason to push sasha also and looks forced. Sasha looks back and says that people townread CDB more than Garmr, and for whatever reason bob decides to take it as Sasha killing CDB because of that reason? This doesn't seem like a genuine interpretation of events.

VOTE: bob

I think I like this lynch more than Sashaddin now.

It isn't and I think I called him out for it. Gotta check if he actually addressed it actually, thanks for mentioning it

[Exilon]

Ah, here we go:

Also I want to quickly address this

Think we got sash in a freudian slip. Were he prety much agued the reason that he as mafia killed CHB over gamr

No. It's really not a freudian slip. Hell he just disproved his own thesis and it was all public, so unless it was 100% fake, which is what you have to accuse him of in order to say this, this is just false.

He doesn't come back to this, but I think that's expected considering there were a lot of parallell conversations happening at once atm

Also, I can't find any other mention to the possibility that I'm scum in the Rui wagon, for some reason...? did I miss something?

[Garmr]

Looks at the bob votes then looks at the rui wagon yesterday.

[Exilon]

Fuck I lol'd

[Exilon]

But I doi have to say that I can see Bob being misguided town and for now that's where I'm leaning