Mini Normal 2071 (Game Over!)

[Detective Pikachu]

Ausuka's claim is susp as f but strictly speaking this isn't totally outside the range of the level of stacked that normal games can have especially when we don't know what scum have.

I think it's likely we have at least three tprs so there's at most 2 scum making tpr claims I think and one scum in the vt claims. That means it's either garmr + bob, or 1+ from ausuka and skitter

[this is not a reads list, all names are unsorted]

tpr claims
skitter30
Garmr
bob3141
Ausuka

'checked vts'
Gamma Emerald

vts
Exilon
u r a person 2
Egix96

if we lynch in egix/urap, have ausuka check the other, then if/when we mislynch we enter a gamestate where there's a discernible blocking around ausuka, or ausuka is dead and gamma is a second ic. problems emerge with no result claims tho
have skitter check bob in this path? maybe?

I think from a pure statistical point of view that makes the scum team have to most commit to their gambits, but the problem obviously is that all of the people I've thought were scummy have claimed tprs which means if we lynch outside the tprs we will have a harder time hitting scum.

if skitter is town her role isn't a LOT better than motion detector

basically depends on how strongly we feel ausuka is town and whether we think town can handle lylo effectively with no scum flips but a large mechanical block of claims

another option would be lynch garmr, have ausuka neap urap, have skitter det egix, or something like that. This forces scum to choose between killing me and bob which gives us one ic in lylo and several existing mech claims. I suspect garmr and bob would not support this course of action.

I think lynching vt is the mathematically optimal play here but lynching ausuka is very tempting since that is very much the weakest tpr claim

I'm just sort of spewing thoughts though I still haven't really properly reread certain things. I think we're functionally guaranteed to have a scum in the vt claims and since I'm not totally in love with any of the three for scum some sort of reevaluation has to happen there. Tempting to have urap be the lynch if we're doing a vt claim. I think skitter wanted to townread there so if she's going to double down I'd like to see why.

[bob3141]

If both are telling teh truth. Then only egix, urp2 and exilion can be scum. So if either of these are vt then its likely one of ausuka and skitter are scum. So to egix, urp2 and exilion if you a havnt already stated which of the are you leanign towards believing

[bob3141]

If both are telling the truth. Then only egix, urp2 and exilion can be scum. So if either of these are vt then its likely one of ausuka and skitter are scum. So to egix, urp2 and exilion if you a havnt already stated, which of the two are you leaning towards believing and thus being town?

[u r a person 2]

ah, i hadn't done the math, and didn't realize their had to be a fake claim.

I think of the vt's (exilon, egix) egix is almost certainly scum. I don't really read exilon as scum, but it's possible

In order of likeliness, I'd say Egix + Garmr + Bob
then Egix + Exilon + skitter
then Egix + exilon + ausuka

[Detective Pikachu]

As I said, if urap is town I will probably need convincing

[skitter30]

If all claims are true and town we can have 4 clears day2 and 5 day 3.

I mean, does this sound reasonable to you?

so 13 player start, by day 3
1 clear immediately (IC)
2 clears from masons
1 clear w/ potential for false guilty from neapolitan on d2
1 Low chance (1/8 or 2/8 if scum spreads their kills over two nights) of a guilty from detective

so yes, 5 by d3 is possible, but it's a dramatically more likely that it would be 4 by d3, and possible that it would be 3 by d3 and a false guilty

that's not feeling outrageous from my perspective, but like I said, it's not my area of expertise

sorry, i meant 5 clears day4, (ie one n1 and one n3); i'm not getting clears n2; at best i can get a soft-guilty around the strength of a tracker-guilty (although in this setup given that there does not seem vig it would be slightly stronger i think)

once there's one scum alive i can get real clears

but i think 4 potential clears day2 is kinda ridiculous and i'm having a hard time believing that the reviewers would be cool with that

[skitter30]

One thing that never felt right with me was skitter pushing teh lynch rui yet ending up on sach lynch after it had died. My gut instinct of skitters vote record is one of avoiding teh lynchs to look towny.

Also it never felt right when skitter said bobs town.

again, for the 4000th time, it's always mechanically better to lynch a vt claim than someone who didn't claim (and given the lurking probably wouldn't). that's the main reason i was on sash day1 - i didn't think he was scum

and you just felt like newtown

[skitter30]

@pikachu remember that i'm only even-night (ie can't check anyone till n4)
i think a detective is closer in strength to a tracker than a motion detector actually

also i'm rethinking the urap townread; don't like how sold he is on ausuka!town

i'm assuming that bob + garmr are real and ausuka isn't scum with gamma. so to me there are at most 1 scum in {ausuka/gamma} - very much probably ausuka, and 2 scum in {urap/egix/exilon}

i do think that egix is the most likely scum in that group. i'm undecided between urap and exilon but i'm tending towards town!exilon rn

[Exilon]

remind me why gamma / ausuka is only one scum

[skitter30]

because i don't think scum!ausuka gives her partner a fake-clear like this

[u r a person 2]

1 scum in {ausuka/gamma} - very much probably ausuka

I mean, there's no way for it to be gamma and not ausuka, right? Did you think this through?

[u r a person 2]

There should be more votes on egix =/

[skitter30]

1 scum in {ausuka/gamma} - very much probably ausuka

I mean, there's no way for it to be gamma and not ausuka, right? Did you think this through?

right. they're either s/s or ausuka scum/gamma town. or t/t

t/t and all the claims being true mean that it's exactly you/exilon/egix so
i don't think that's particularly likely. i think that the most likely universe is ausuka scum/gamma town

do u believe my claim? do u think i'm scum here?

[u r a person 2]

do u believe my claim? do u think i'm scum here?

ah, i hadn't done the math, and didn't realize their had to be a fake claim.

I think of the vt's (exilon, egix) egix is almost certainly scum. I don't really read exilon as scum, but it's possible

In order of likeliness, I'd say Egix + Garmr + Bob
then Egix + Exilon + skitter
then Egix + exilon + ausuka

[skitter30]

ok
why?

[u r a person 2]

Why what, skitter? why all of it?

[skitter30]

why is your townread on ausuka so strong?

what is it based on exactly?

why do you think bob/garmr are more likely lying than one of {me/ausuka}?

[u r a person 2]

You'll have to wait if you want me to sift through and remind myself why (I'll do it, but not now), but I've been town reading ausuka for most all of this game

Bob has been scummy af, garmr's hider play seems like a great way to get over the hump to day before lylo and he seems like just the kind of guy to look at bob and say 'okay, if we're going to keep you alive we're going to have to get creative' And I've had a low-key paranoia about him forever (I'm not sure I ever mentioned it, so scum read me for that if you'd like)

You, I was quietly second guessing my town read on by the end of d1, and I was starting to actively question it I think end of day yesterday (might have been beginning of this day, but wherever I started pointing questions towards you). And like, you've modded a town game of mine, played scum as a partner of mine, and played as tvt with me. So you being so wrong for so long, switching to a town read on me with no explanation, and now switching back is ??? This is simply not my scum game and of everyone in this thread, you should be the one able to see that.

More to the point, egix is fucking scummy and we should have lynched him yesterday.

put it all together and that's where I'm at. We're pretty heavy into PoE territory here, and obviously scum has slipped under the radar for a couple of days now, so I'm not even sure I can make great cases on any of them.

[skitter30]

@ urap:

1. i would like to hear those reasons for townreading ausuka, yes - from my pov she's pretty likely scum and the fact that you've been defending her is :/
i also wonder if you *would* be defending her this strongly if you would be partners with her; i feel like ur more self-aware than that and prob wouldn't

2. balance-wise i think that ic + masons + odd night nea + even night detective is ridiculous, no matter what scum have (prob. some sort of roleblocker if this was the town line-up i'd guess? idk). even if you think i'm lying - ic + masons + odd night nea is still ridiculous, just slightly less so. setup spec is *not* your forte (cough mini 2075 where you lynched the loyal neighborizer ...), and if you don't beleive me cuz you don't trust my alignment, listen to pikachu, who thinks ausuka's claim is the weakest.
in contrast, ic + mason (+ even night detective) makes some amount of sense with scum odd-night nea - scum can use it to the find the masons or ic (or me)
(imo i think it's still slightly scumsided but it's like within the realm of normalcy)

3. i'm p. sure the masons claims are real - there's * a lot* of subtle things throughout the game pointing in that direction (like all the crumbs garmr pointed out; all the times that bob sheeped garmr or they voted together and/or agreed with each other, like exilon pointed out, etc). the sum total of all these does not look like scumpartners imo (garmr would have had to have started planting a mason claim in literally his first post)

and nobody has pointed this out: even if they are scum - ic + odd night nea + even night detective is ..... never enough power for town in a 3:10 game, and the only person who hasn't claimed is gamma but if we live in this world he has to be a vt because of ausuka's result

the *only* universe where this makes any sort of sense balance-wise or play-wise is if we're living in 11:2 and bob/garmr are scum buds pretending to be masons (i'm actually giving this theory some thought given the claims)
(this only even crossed my mind because i was looking at some old normal setups and saw an 11:2 game .... ausuka may have run it even actually? i might have remembered that wrong idk)

4. i don't know if i scumread you so much as ... you're very squarely in my poe rn just mechanically/logistically so i need to go back and reasses your alignment, esp. since you're defending someone that i don't think is town. playwise i *do* think this looks a lot more like town!you than scum!you (specifically idk if scum!you appeals to me to lynch bob over the fact that you think his game here looks like your game in the last game - it would draw my attention to your scumgame and you'd have to be hoping i wouldn't compare that feature of your scumgame to your play *this* game which feels a little risky coming from scum!you who had just been partnered with me)
but like ... idk where scum is so the fact taht you're in the poe means i have to try to firm up this read. there basically has to be scum in the vt claims so if you're town i need to make sure i can see that

also i don't have an explanation for switching randomly to a townread. at some point i realized you just didn't feel scummy anymore (if you want i can point to a place town!me did this; i don't think scum!me has ever done this)

5. i was on egix at eod yesterday, thank you

6. actually the more i write this am i crazy for thinking this is 11:2? it would make *a lot* of sense and explain a lot about the gamestate i think (also my reads ... i only actually scumread 2/5 people in my 5 person poe that has to contain 3 scum if we accept the mason claim)

i rambled a lot as i wrote this, sorry

[skitter30]

although claiming masons in 11:2 is kinda crazy because you *both* have to survive like i think five mislynches and if either of you get lynched it's game over; it basically turns it into a white-flag varient and you ahve to explain why neither of them died (.... although that would at least partially explain why the ic slot is still alive - it's slightly less weird if masons are alive if the ic-revealed-since-gamestatrt is also alive)

idk i might just be in conspiracy-theory land
but ic + odd night nea + even night det vs 2 scums feels the most balanced way of spreading around the power to me idk

[skitter30]

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=77289
eh scum would need a lot more power in 11:2 i think. this was actually 9:2; i was mistaken

[Garmr]

you guys realise ausuka could be bull shitting about his modifier to make it more palatable to town.

[Garmr]

her*

[skitter30]

ok, what modifier do u think scum!her has?

[Garmr]

ok, what modifier do u think scum!her has?

How about none