Newbie 1934: Tundra (Game Over)

[teacher]

@Pine, Im hammering you shortly. I said Id be back on to engage with you, but you arent here.

Yes I suspect Baezu, for one of the reasons I suspect you -- lurking newb flake. But I suspect you for more than that: the greeting-tell, Navneet's ignoring the RVS shenanigans, Raya's enterance readslist and the pockets that came with it. No, none of this really has to do with your play. The slot was not redeemable, and cannot be allowed to continue in the game. Further, I think your lynch has two additional benefits: the better associational data to guide PRs tonight and reset reads if need be tomorrow, and the fact that you are already claimed. If youre scum, as Ive said, I got a whole long list of clears. If your town, it breaks my current townblock and makes me takes Flavor's case seriously rather than an attempt to redirect/counterwagon.

At the start you said you were going to do a read through and stream of consciousness. If you have said all you are going to say, I will hammer. The hammer will fall tomorrow afternoon NY time regardless, to leave you time to compose a will if you want.

[teacher]

As a teacher you should know that statistics and probability don’t necessarily translate into reality

Best Mafia strategy advice I have ever read: [url=https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... babilities[/url]

Yes, it is certainly possible a slot that has greeted the thread twice, and flaked twice is town. But it is far more likely to be scum. Play the probable rather than the possible.

[teacher]

As a teacher you should know that statistics and probability don’t necessarily translate into reality

Best Mafia strategy advice I have ever read: Link

Yes, it is certainly possible a slot that has greeted the thread twice, and flaked twice is town. But it is far more likely to be scum. Play the probable rather than the possible.

EBWOP

[Baezu]

I feel like this conversation isn’t helping scum hunt...if you’re town, please contribute to town

This has been part of my problem with your game this game- you haven’t been really towny

[teacher]

I am going to essentially treat this as twilight, and make two posts. This one provides (and somewhat repeats) my wagon analysis.

If Pine flips Red, I think his partner is:
Flavor 80% of the time
Baezu 20% of the time

If Pine flips green, I think the likely teams are:
(elephant-cinnamon)-Baezu 77.5%
Elephant-Flavor 10%
Elephant-voted 7.5%
Cinnamon - flavor/Voted 5%

Obviously, from the board's perspective, the green flip teams have to include me. I think Elephant has slightly higher scum-equity. Elephant-flavor is a tinfoil, but it is higher probablity than two on-wagon just because that is a long-seated belief of mine that scum are normally one-on, one-off wagon. When there are two on wagon, scum is generally in the 4th or 5th slot. It is incredibly rare for scum to have co-joint voting patterns throughout the day, as Elephant-Voted-Cinnamon have done. I rank Cinnamon-flavor significantly lower than elephant-flavor because the degree of misdirection in the day if Flavor is involved as scum and Pine town is amazingly high, making me suspect someone I know to be capable of powerscumming more than a newb, however good they may be in marathons.

Menalque and Eggs are just plain town. That conclusion leads into my next post...

[teacher]

I feel like this conversation isn’t helping scum hunt...if you’re town, please contribute to town

This has been part of my problem with your game this game- you haven’t been really towny

Hahahaha. That really is rich coming from you.

[teacher]

The promised next post that I am starting to include in all my newb games at or near twilight.

Since it is theoretically twilight, and this is a newb game, I'll offer these thoughts, courtesy of TW. my one difference with the advice is on Jailkeeper. If this flips green, JK should act like a doc. If red, act like a cop.

Subject: Newbie 1866 - Canine Mafia [GAME OVER]

In case day ends quickly some advice for TPRs (just general advice, Una/Pingu jump in if you disagree or have more to add)

Cop

-- DO NOT TARGET STRONG TOWN PLAYERS OR PEOPLE WHO SEEM TO "KNOW SOMETHING". they will be night killed and your results will be useless. IME cops are best suited targeting players who are kinda null reads, leaning one way or the other. if you can reach day 3 (let's say 3 town vs 2 scum) and out yourself along with your results, that's an instant town win! even in 4v1, you can push the decision down to a 50/50 lynch. If you do get a guilty it's generally advised to either 1) out yourself instantly, or 2) make it REALLY obvious who your guilty is so if you flip town can lynch them

Neopolitan

-- go for similar targets to docs. not super obvious townies, but also not people who are super shady. do not out your results right away. town power roles and scum power roles both return "not vanilla", so if you do out a NV result it can fuck the town. Try and put them in a scummier range, if anything. If you get a Vanilla result, try and townread them subtly but in a way that we'll notice if you die. If you survive until massclaim this almost nullifies scum fakeclaims.

Tracker

-- target the shady people cops need to avoid! if you track someone to a target and they're not dead there's a decent chance the person you tracked is a town power role. reassess this based on the setup once another power role has flipped / claimed etc. If you track someone to a player who dies that night, out your result immediately as on the balance of probabilities it was the night kill.

Jailkeeper

-- i hate this role you can be a roleblocker or a doctor. if you think you can guess who is most likely to be the scum killer tonight, target them--but this function is a lot stronger lategame IMO. for the time being, be a doctor. try and target players who you would kill if you were scum (priority 1: people who you think might be town power roles. priority 2: very towny players....IMO)

Doctor

-- put on your evil hat and think "who would I kill?", then target that person. As with JK priority#1 is town power roles who you think the scumteam will be on to (generally speaking, scum are better at spotting townies who are playing like power roles than town are. so if you have a suspicion, the scumteam likely do, too). Priority #2 is to target very towny players. FRIENDLY REMINDER if you target a player and they don't die, it is very likely they're town. so try and make it clear but not too clear with your reads d2 that you've "cop cleared" them.


The Wiki has shitloads more info but I'm lazy. Google "mafiascum wiki [role name]" and have a good read.

Good luck<3

just gonna drop this iconic copypasta from a game I played a thousand years ago here for any TPRs out there. obviously don't interact with this post unless there's something you agree with at a mechanical/theory level because acknowledging it may be considered a TPR tell

this came from a game where I was trying to subtly hint at who the jk should target btw. I've had some serious successes with people sheeping these tips hence I keep digging it up

in this game the dream cop target is lavender imo because she's kinda townish but hard to get a firm read on. outside of that {Ryno, whig/Urist} are good targets for now.

won't talk about doc/jk targets because manipulating nightkills rarely works out well

also just requoting this bad boy

and once more for good measure
glglgl

[Baezu]

I feel like this conversation isn’t helping scum hunt...if you’re town, please contribute to town

This has been part of my problem with your game this game- you haven’t been really towny

Hahahaha. That really is rich coming from you.

The unfortunate reality for me, teacher, is that none of my town games ever seem towny

I do really like your last two posts though

[Flavor Leaf]

Teacher-Pine...?

Nah, I still think Pine greens.

[teacher]

Still waiting for our 1v1 sweetie.

[Baezu]

Still waiting for our 1v1 sweetie.

Is this referring to FL? Because I would love to see that

[teacher]

It is. See 752

[Irrelephant11]

My of-the-moment thought is a Pine red flip would make me want to lynch Baezu, and a Pine green flip would make me want to flip Flavor
If Pine flips green here though my jaw will drop

[teacher]

did you get the colors right there boss? If so, Im intrigued and surprised.

[Irrelephant11]

Yes
Flavor is either wrong or informed
Baezu is trying to keep his partner alive or is the only towny not swayed by your and my bad town leading

[teacher]

But see Menalque (towny not swayed)

I see Flavor more as a save/break up terminal townblock. The fact that all the wagons have been the same is fatal if it’s red. But thanks for the peek inside. All that remains is a ticking time for Pine to do with what he will.

[Irrelephant11]

But Pine’s “Irrelephant is scummy but we should keep him alive” is exactly the kind of surrvavlistic-But-don’t-want-to-look-survivalistic I’d expect from scum!Pine so I feel pretty good about this flip
When this flips red just lynch through Baezu > Flavor > cinnamon for the win

Pedit: is Menalque not interested in a Pine flip? I’ve been skimming the past few pages to check there isn’t a new wagon, I figured I could catch up in the night phase
Anyway those are my thoughts I’m no scumhunting god but this one feels solvable

[teacher]

I think he’s interested but is in my wagon so clearly not swayed. Hope your enjoying the vacay.

[Irrelephant11]

I am! Sunburned but happy

[Menalque]

The fact that all the wagons have been the same is fatal if it’s red.

I don’t know if I missed something or if I’m just tired so my brain isn’t working very well, but why is this fatal? (I’m taking it that you mean fatal for town?) I think if the flip is red then FL becomes the scummiest player for having put so much effort into creating an alternative wagon. If this flip is green (as I think it will be) then FL becomes pretty much conftown for me and I think we’re lynching you or irrelephant tomorrow.

[Menalque]

Sidebar: glad to hear you’re having a good holiday irrelephant.

Also, I’d very much like to see you 1v1 teacher in the time that’s left FL, but failing that an answer to my question (teacher’s expanded questions) would be appreciated. If you already did, I missed it — sorry.

[Flavor Leaf]

My of-the-moment thought is a Pine red flip would make me want to lynch Baezu, and a Pine green flip would make me want to flip Flavor
If Pine flips green here though my jaw will drop

Oh, how funny that teacher said a Pine red flip makes him want me.

And irrelephant says a pine green flip makes him want me.

[Flavor Leaf]

Please go teacher today. They’re setting up later mislynches.

Or PR investigate me.

Unless I’m the PR, then I’m gonna confirm Irrelephant.

[Menalque]

FL, why are you talking like you know there’s an investigative PR in the game?

[Flavor Leaf]

No need to role fish.