Newbie 1941 - Game over

[Wagonomics]

WAGONS	V A L U E	INVESTOR
Spangled - Town	90	Wagonomics

Think I'll start here for today

[Wagonomics]

WAGONS	V A L U E	INVESTOR
Spangled - Town	90	Wagonomics
Holden - Town	60	Wagonomics

I got 30 coins left, where to place em

[emps]

heehee

you see this is how you get guaranteed profits

[emps]

uhhhhh fuck it

20 for everyone town

[Wagonomics]

WAGONS	V A L U E	INVESTOR
Spangled - Town	90	Wagonomics
Holden - Town	60	Wagonomics
Everyone - Town	20 each, 140 total	emps

Cool you got 70 left

[emps]

I forgot, you can't wager on yourself.

Change the 20 to a 30

[HoldenGolden]

Emps, wagon, what are your thoughts a out what I brought up about kaniffee?

Wagon especially since it sounded like you felt they were sounding townie to you towards the end of day one.

[HoldenGolden]

everyone gets an extra 100 coins as day starts

Let's see who is in the lead

I also appreciate you ignoring my last bet.

200 coin bet that wagon will be dead by day 2's lynch.

[Spangled]

@Wagonlad
But if you bet on something and the bets don't last, isn't putting a bet that someone is town also an indication that you think they'll get lynched?

838 pings me a bit; 'since that's like the jokey 10 minute version of this game, telling jokes just might be his default playstyle' - something being jokey definitely doesn't mean that people tell jokes on it, and whether or not it is a genuine misunderstanding, I feel like it looks like scum just trying to invent activity from nothing, especially since they didn't really end it with any kind of point except 'it makes me warier'; it was a whole lot of nothing as a post.

729 is also a whole lot of nothing disguised as activity, especially since it ultimately is just 'wait for the replacements'.

668 has focus on the NK that I'm not sure town have so soon into the game. Ultimately probably NAI but it's still a bit off, I guess.

858 just seems sheepy on face value, especially as they never seem to express any

reasons

. Maybe I'm missing context but...

is still pinging me. 'Well seeing as teacher is unlikely to be lynched' just looks opportunistic; if you think someone is scum make a case and see if that gets them lynched. Don't jump off on the nearest mislynch you can find. Switch your vote, sure, but still pay attention to your other, at least somewhat progressed, scumread.

This post is borne a little bit out of tunnelling, I know, but here are the things that I notice trawling back through their ISO (that you haven't mentioned - or maybe you have mentioned some, sorry about that then).

838 is a fairly decent point
729 I think is pretty NAI: most people were waiting on the replacement because jackel was scummy off the little bit he posted.

Spoiler: useless sidenote

You know I think that so far has been the most eye opening thing for me about game logic. Retrospectively, the almost universal dive onto ico followed by relatively weak counter wagons/defense for town!ico screams a townie mislynch. I know it's not always gonna be the case, but cool little learning experience.

668 is honestly werid shit that cyrus did as well with nks. No clue honestly how to read into that, so I'll save that for someone else.

858 and 1053,
What do you make of his initial reasons for scum leaning teacher and his reads post in general then?

Before [post]579 they never actually express a teacher scumlean or any reason as to do so, and the read there has such bad reasoning; it's a null read disguised as a 'I'm-doing-things' read, I think. And they cling on to said reasoning for 300+ posts, see 832. As for 858, that feels so bloody fake. If the good reasoning they're talking about is coming from Red (which is how I read it), then Red had made two posts on teacher prior to that point, 818 and 822 and while they're legitimate, there is so little there to suspect teacher for. It could be PoE, but they make not the slightest mention of that, not even when they're explaining it to teacher.

[Spangled]

Woah something weird happened there. Sorry about that everyone.

[Spangled]

WAGONS	V A L U E	INVESTOR
Spangled - Town	90	Wagonomics

Think I'll start here for today

What about me has been towny; why are you betting that?

[Spangled]

My readslist hasn't really changed since the last time I posted it except that Iconeum is out.
Here it is again for your convenience.
Town: Cyrus/Spangled, Wagon
TL: Holden, Emps
Null: Red/RCE, NaCl
SL: Teacher

Could you explain your NaCl read to me, please?

[RCEnigma]

When I get some motivation to effort I'll pro/con both Teacher and Wagon.

[emps]

Emps, wagon, what are your thoughts a out what I brought up about kaniffee?

Wagon especially since it sounded like you felt they were sounding townie to you towards the end of day one.

i think their nulltown rn honestly

the scummy bit doesnt hit me as very scummy

just seems newbie to me tho

they just seem... like theyre there, but they arent at the saame time yknow what i mean?

[emps]

WAGONS	V A L U E	INVESTOR
Spangled - Town	90	Wagonomics
Holden - Town	60	Wagonomics
Everyone - Town	30 each, 210 total	emps

[emps]

yo kanifee

why do you have wagon as TR

but holden as i only as TLs

[teacher]

plz push wagonomics tomorrow

Could you like actually play rather than your game

[teacher]

Crap I made a mistake in my readslist. I can’t explain what it was for reasons. But emps should be much higher. And with the deeper dive on Spangled I’m feeling good there.

Holden, salt, emps
Spangled RC
ico
Wagon kani

Teacher, Holden
Salt, Emps
Spangled, RC
Kani, Wagon

See with eight it makes such nice rows.

[teacher]

Eh I got it done fast enough before curtain.

.
Speaking of which, while we are waiting I promised a little bit of maths:

For the tracker claim strategy, I will refer you to a post made long ago in my history when the tracker claim was a more active part of the newb queue. I am glad that it is gone. But here that post is. Obviously the situation here is slightly different -- it is way more likely we are in B2 or C3 than B1 from the lack of nightkill. Even so, in C3, the claimed tracker gets protection and results. In B2, they likely dont get results, but we can solve around a known!town slot. Im more agnostic here depending on the trackers readslists position.

For the neap claim strategy, I will write the posts: neap only exists in A1 and B3. In A1, we get 2 conf!towns out of the claim (or even better, conf!scum), and the claim leaves the cop less likely to be RBed/killed. In B3, its even better, since we get the same 2 conf!towns and a guarantee of another result because the claimed neap will be protected by the doc. Given the lack of nightkill, if a neap exists at all, it is more likely we are in B2, so would lean towards a claim and public results.

One final maths point in general - it is statistically more likely for a JK to stop the killer than stop the kill in the abstract. But that abstract math matters less than does the JK's ACTUAL reasoning regarding their target.

Wait, why is a tracker claim less of a part of the newbie queue now?
What changed between then and now?

[quote="In post 1424, Spangled”]
Wait, why is a tracker claim less of a part of the newbie queue now?
What changed between then and now?[/quote]
I dunno. Like I guarantee you’ve heard of the greeting tell if you’ve played in any of the last 30 newbies. It gets discussed day 1.

That is the new “tracker claim” - the passing fad that was discussed a lot. Except the tracker claim typically led to six pages of mechanical arguments rather than just one.

I didbt like it at the time.

[teacher]

Ouch. Sorry.

[Kaniffee]

Yeah, are you saying the mafia passed on their kill, then?

They could have done that to let us WIFOM.

...But it would be a suboptimal strategy, wouldn't it?
They don't really gain anything out of it... I wouldn't think...
Since lack of a nightkill doesn't really change who we decide to lynch.
I don't think.

I haven't thought through all of my reads in depth in a while, so those reads are mainly based on general feeling.

[Kaniffee]

I didn't mean to quote that. I must've clicked add to quote list on accident and forgot.

[Kaniffee]

laughs i thought i teased you enough to where you knew i wasn't pocketing holdem can you put it back to l1 so i can clam and finally answer emps questions because i didnt wantg to answer queston 5 and 6 cuse i thought i would out my self but after i clame i can out my self

What's the point of this?

If your going to write out a post about

claiming a role

, then why on earth does it matter if I re-vote?

If you look at timestamps Holden and I thought the same thing at the same time. Also Cyrus said he was softing. Plus I don’t know how else to interpret “so I can clam” and “I would [o]ut my self” and “after I clame I can out my self” as anything other than saying they have a power role even now.

Why don’t you think that is saying they have something to hide until they claim???

Pedit: this is at kaniffee.

The quotes are from Curus’s 379 iirc.

For 1051 and 1057
First of all this doesn't change the fact that Holden said nothing about soft pr in his post at the same time as you. My point is that by you saying that he was "softing it" colors how people read the post after the fact, and when looking at Cyrus's post it doesn't show softing in and of itself. Your response to it is what made it a soft pr more than anything else. You're right that spangled agreed on it being softing, but Spangled also said that your response to it "rubs me the wrong way."
I don't remember 393 being a thing, but I'll do that in my next post.

This doesn’t actually answer 1051. I quoted the specific language of Cyrus’s post that was softing and asked you to explain how that language could be interpreted as anything other than a soft.
And You’re misrepping Holdens post, which did specifically refer to Roleclaiming iirc (I’m on mobile and - not surprisingly- your post didn’t quote mine to include the link)

Let's walk throught this shall we. I said that Holden's post didn't mention soft pr: a true statement. You said "If you look at timestamps Holden and I thought the same thing at the same time.": an untrue statement. Holden asked why, you assumed why. If anyone misrepresented his post it was you.

As for the language quoted in 1051, I think it's been well enough established that even outing yourself as vanilla townie is bad because it narrows down PR possibilities for scum when choosing a night kill so I disagree that "out my self" indicates PR, and claiming is just claiming, also doesn't indicate PR.

Looking at a bigger portion excluding that beginning bit (it's also in holden's post that was quoted uptop):
"can you

put it back to l1

so i can clam and finally answer emps questions because i didnt wantg to answer queston 5 and 6 cuse i thought i would out my self but after i clame i can out my self"
That is what especially indicates to me that Cyrus got it in his head that you only claim at L-1 because that's the "rule." It's more of a strong recommendation, but I can still tell that he just thought that's the way you're supposed to do it

[HoldenGolden]

Emps, wagon, what are your thoughts a out what I brought up about kaniffee?

Wagon especially since it sounded like you felt they were sounding townie to you towards the end of day one.

i think their nulltown rn honestly

the scummy bit doesnt hit me as very scummy

just seems newbie to me tho

they just seem... like theyre there, but they arent at the saame time yknow what i mean?

I mean I can say the last bit about you right now so not really.

What makes him on the townish side of null for you then?

[teacher]

When I get some motivation to effort I'll pro/con both Teacher and Wagon.

Would saying that this would v much help me sort both wagon and you help the motivation? Becuase Im looking forward to it.