Micro 880: A Normal Game - Game Over!

[OkaPoka]

as in if you were the nk people wouldnt be like ok only okapoka would make that kill

[TemporalLich]

as in if you were the nk people wouldnt be like ok only okapoka would make that kill

indeed

[TemporalLich]

at this point I believe Oka has townslipped

I will unvote until the popcorning is done

UNVOTE:

[OkaPoka]

Lich:

If I kill you, nobody blinks an eye because you are a claimed Traffic Analyst (aka you can find scum with some error but you know who communicates). Its like killing a cop claim, everyone will see that kill and be like "ok yeah that makes sense!"

And of course the question is, why aren't you dead?

Turns out scum have some from of roleblocking.

So therefore scum can mitigate the nightplay aspect of your play, however that still leaves an issue for scum being that you are unrestricted in dayplay. Then we mass claim and nobody claims anything strong thus making you an essential IC. Basically me pushing for a massclaim and nobody else claiming something makes you an IC. Leaving you even stronger dayplay wise right? The only way I could restrict your dayplay by not killing you is setting up a strategy that would probably be me or my scumbuddy fakeclaiming a role to make sure there isn't room for the either of us to exist. But since I pushed for the massclaim and nobody went for a claim, we know for a fact that I did not set up any counterplay to your dayplay potential thus leaving you as an unrestricted IC-lite. And since nobody went for a claim, we know for a fact that scum didn't have something planned to restrict your dayplay either or were to scared to do so for whatever reasons. This means they were okay with leaving an IC-lite on the table.

Okay so the question we have to ask ourselves is why would scum be okay with leaving an IC-lite on the table. What gain or push to wincondition does giving town an IC have? Because scum could've killed you and left us with an all VT + mailman claim tomorrow and since they have a roleblocking ability of sorts we play 5v2 mountainous essentially (which is very scumsided). But they chose not to, meaning that they felt that they would win more with your being IC-alive rather than CFJ being unknown alignment alive.

And where does that leave us?

Coming out of day 1 I was the biggest wagon twice. We bounced around a few times, landed on you, skitter, and finally lynching dunn. However the thing is, dunn is dead, you are now an IC. Therefore the biggest targets of yesterday to today are me and skitter by VCA. But then we need to take into consideration another thing, you townread the absolute fuck out of skitter and you are IC-lite. You and skitter scumread the absolute fuck out me and you are IC-lite. I think its pretty obvious that I've been setup to be the designated lynch today and force us into 3v2 lylo tomorrow. This game in its current state with an IC scumreading me benefits whoever would want me dead, and of course scum me does not want me dead. This may also hurt skitter so skitter might actually be town here, but we'll see. However its kind of important to note that a dead CFJ means that there won't be the question of why isn't skitter dead at lylo because ML me and nk you we have 3v2 lylo and killing you is still open as the "mechanical low info play" so town doesn't have the paranoia.

pedit: popcorning is over Lich, everyone else claimed VT. Kop claimed mailman to CFJ. Also hope that clears up my thoughts a bit.

[Skygazer]

Day 2 VC #3

OkaPoka (0) -
Not Voting (7) - skitter30, northsidegal, OkaPoka, Kop, Sleepless Assassin, Firebringer, TemporalLich (1327)

Lynch Threshold

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch a player.

Deadline

This phase will end on July 26, 2019 5:00:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) or in (expired on 2019-07-26 17:00:00).[/b][/size]

Moderator Notes

1. If you have regular weekend V/LA, you must either notify me each time or set V/LA tags each time.
2. If you see any errors in the votecount, please let me know.
3. Firebringer is V/LA indefinitely.
4. The moderator is V/LA from Wednesday, July 17 to Sunday, July 21. Please forward any questions to Skygazer during that time.

Voting History Key: * = Hammer, + = L-1 vote.

Spoiler: Current Voting History

Day 2

TemporalLich: OkaPoka (1168) --> (Null) (1327)

Spoiler: Previous Voting History

Day 1

the worst (5): skitter30 (90) --> (Null) (168) --> OkaPoka (169) --> (Null) (253) --> SweetNSassy (340)
Oversoul (4): OkaPoka (404) -->

Dunnstral

(673) --> Kop (1028) -->

Dunnstral

(1142)

callforjudgement

(8): Firebringer (94) --> OkaPoka (157) --> the worst (222) --> OkaPoka (417) --> Kop (644) --> OkaPoka (1023) --> Kop (1051+) -->

Dunnstral

(1139)
OkaPoka (14): SweetNSassy (85) -->

Dunnstral

(105) --> TemporalLich (164) --> Kop (908) --> TemporalLich (963) --> Kop (993) --> Oversoul (998) --> TemporalLich (1004) --> Kop (1029) --> (Null) (1056) --> TemporalLich (1107) -->

Dunnstral

(1136) --> skitter30 (1138) -->

Dunnstral

(1145)

Dunnstral

(4): SweetNSassy (300) --> the worst (397) --> skitter30 (587) --> Oversoul (1132)
SweetNSassy (0):
Kop (3): skitter30 (860) --> TemporalLich (1106) -->

Dunnstral

(1147*)
Sleepless Assassin (3): TemporalLich (93) -->

Dunnstral

(108) --> TemporalLich (158)
skitter30 (1): OkaPoka (191+)
Firebringer (8):

Dunnstral

(91) --> skitter30 (111) -->

Dunnstral

(138+) --> skitter30 (279) --> TemporalLich (687) --> skitter30 (979) --> Kop (992) --> TemporalLich (1108+)
TemporalLich (7): OkaPoka (87) -->

Dunnstral

(109+) --> OkaPoka (167) --> Firebringer (285) --> OkaPoka (425+) --> Kop (1128) -->

Dunnstral

(1146+)

Dawn (Pregame; reference purposes only)

Sleepless Assassin:

callforjudgement

(14)

[OkaPoka]

Here's what I think are some possible scenarios.

1) The shortsighted theory:
Scum did not think this through being that town's best play would be a massclaim today so they hoped that today would be prime me vs you, TvT. They roleblocked you probably thinking you would hit me, somebody would suggest I'm mafia ascetic maybe but the point is there would be some form of doubt in your claim and we would go off on each other. But when massclaim, the correct choice, came they had no choice, they don't want to be outed yet because that's a high risk play.

2) 3v2 Lylo play.
In this scenario they know that you are going to become IC-lite and feel that you being alive would be there best bet because you would push me first and they could have a reasonable shot at lynching me forcing us into lylo tomorrow after you are nk. We are then left with a lylo of Sleepless,nsg,skitter,firebringer,kop. There are some slots in there that if town, its over.

3) CFJ is a magician
This scenario ignores you completely. Scum have a roleblocker and can neutralize you. They kill CFJ because CFJ is the biggest threat as a town leading figure to how scumteam wants to play it out. CFJ represents slow paced, analysis, step-by-step play and will call out anyone without derptunneling. They probably feel that CFJ might just be able to flip on them at any moment and lead town through a lylo situation. RN deepwolves will not be paranoia'd in the sense of "why aren't they dead yet" because you are the next NK. Then it enters scenario 2 of 3v2 lylo because they don't care, they aren't the lynch today.

[TemporalLich]

No sane scum would leave an IC alive. The scum strategy Oka describes in 1328 feels very contrived, and a bit loo late considering popcorning is done. Yeah, I'm pretty much an IC now. I think scum leaving an IC alive is a tactical blunder. IC's can't be dealt with by mislynch, scum need to nightkill them for them to die.

Oka, I think you've townslipped with your scum strategy posts.

yeah I highly suspect there's a scum JK or RB running around.

-----

VOTE: Firebringer

I feel like I trust your VT claim the least. Especially considering I got NRed on you.

That being said, my sights are still on Kop, he's still basically a miller right now.

-----

pedit

CFJ sure was townread by everyone, but an IC CFJ is not.

2 would be an interesting plan, and yet you blabbing this makes me TR you harder since no sane scum would do that

[Firebringer]

interesting

[OkaPoka]

Here are some other stuff we know.

I've said repeatedly that skitter and temp lich are antialigned, skitter had decent backing yesterday in a pool of OkaPoka 1138, Firebringer111 279 979, Kop 860 and if you count Sleepless Assassin's post about not liking skitter 658 she seems like prime lynch candidate. CFJ has also said repeatedly and implied of his distaste for a skitter lynch removing one of skitter's possible allies. However there is the thing of killing Lich would remove skitter's strongest ally, so perhaps its not as clear cut as it is. However a Firebringer kill would be much preferable for skitter to endgame this, as it would leave skitter's alliance of skitter,cfj,lich up against a possible me,sleepless,kop and it doesn't take a genius to realize the latter three are destined to fail. There is some backing to a skitter scum theory being that keeping Lich alive rather than CFJ would probably extend her lifetime by one phase at the least because of the strength of Lich's TR.

But thinking along those lines, if scum thought ahead and saw that Lich was not going to be lynched, they might've sensed another incoming conflict, me vs skitter. I "should" have the larger alliance to tackle skitter and get her lynched. Leaving us with a lylo of me,nsg,firebringer,sleepless,kop. Which benefits Firebringer and Sleepless the most in the sense that I'll predictably go after nsg/kop most of the time as I have seemed to been pocketed by those two.

And well I guess maybe because I townread Firebringer. But sleepless could hypothetically use me as a proxy to get him into LyLo which isn't the worst plan because I have been a rabid dog this game and sleepless has been voting with me, even posturing a bit.

I do wonder why Kop even had to post a thought about debating whether to give mail to Lich/CFJ, it was pretty clear Lich was supposed to be the NK. It almost feels ~ingenuine. I also don't know why he thought getting Dunn to claim would be terribad given that a Traffic Analyst claimed already and would make the setup ridiculously unbalanced if a similar tier power was claimed. What I do think is possible is that killing CFJ might be the best play to make Kop's claim more reasonable in the scenario that he cannot give mail. Of course claiming mailman in a Traffic Analyst game is probably truth, but what if he cannot multitask and scum have no multitaskers with a roleblocker? In this scenario if they kill Lich with roleblocker and Kop gives mail, Kop is instantly incriminated if the roleblocker ever flips and if Kop kills and roleblocker dicks off, then nobody will have mail and he would have to say "oh I was probably roleblocked then" creating suspicion in his claim. This scenario, its reasonable that Kop would mail CFJ and its also reasonable that scum kill CFJ if they have a roleblocker, but I think its slightly suboptimal that they didn't just kill Lich and block Kop for maximum paranoia and if I can think of that like within minutes, then scum would have too. Most likely.

[OkaPoka]

Looking at some vcs:

If you can trust I am green.

DAY 1 VC #13

Oversoul (0) -

OkaPoka

(4) (L-1) - skitter30 (191), Oversoul (404),

callforjudgement

(417),

TemporalLich

(425)

Dunnstral

(0) -
Kop (0) -
skitter30 (2) - Firebringer (279),

Dunnstral

(587)
Firebringer (0) -

TemporalLich

(2) - Sleepless Assassin (158),

OkaPoka

(164)
Not Voting (1) - SweetNSassy

DAY 1 VC #24

Oversoul (0) -

OkaPoka

(2) - skitter30 (191),

TemporalLich

(425)

Dunnstral

(0) -
Kop (2) - Oversoul (1028),

callforjudgement

(1051)
skitter30 (1) -

Dunnstra

l (587)
Firebringer (0) -

TemporalLich

(4) (L-1) - Sleepless Assassin (158), Kop (1106),

OkaPoka

(1107), Firebringer (1108)
Not Voting (0) -

DAY 1 VC #25 (LYNCH)

Oversoul (1) -

Dunnstral

(1132)

OkaPoka

(1) - skitter30 (191)

Dunnstral

(5) (HAMMER @ 1147) -

callforjudgement

(1139), Oversoul (1142),

OkaPoka

(1145),

TemporalLich

(1146), Kop (1147)
Kop (0) -
skitter30 (0) -
Firebringer (0) -

TemporalLich

(2) - Sleepless Assassin (158), Firebringer (1108)
Not Voting (0) -

[TemporalLich]

I think from that VCA I don't like Kop.

[OkaPoka]

I'm sure the reason why we have decided to slow things down is because we want to be nice to our backup mod Skygazer, but I'm sure she can handle an increase in posting.

[Kop]

I think from that VCA I don't like Kop.

What's not to like?

[TemporalLich]

I think from that VCA I don't like Kop.

What's not to like?

mostly the Dunn hammer in 1147, which is one post away from being my L-1 vote

[OkaPoka]

KOP ReADS

[Sleepless Assassin]

Temp can you walk me through why you think youre an IC?

[OkaPoka]

asdFAasdf!@#!@# READ GAME! IF HAVE QUESTION ASK ME !

[OkaPoka]

I PUT MANY EFFORT INTO MAKE POST AND PLAY GAME PLEASE PUT MANY EFFORT INTO READ POST AND PLAY GAME!

[TemporalLich]

Temp can you walk me through why you think youre an IC?

try reading where claiming started, I claimed Traffic Analyst and got a NR on Firebringer, and the claims from other people seem to support this.

[skitter30]

temp is basically an ic; town doesnt have enough power otherwise

[OkaPoka]

SKITTER STOP SCUMREAD ME I AM IC NUMBER TWO

[TemporalLich]

either way I don't think Kop is scum, just that Oka's VCA doesn't bode well for Kop. For one I mostly agree with the reads in 949, though I don't SR Oka now

[OkaPoka]

hahaha i see why cfj said we need a tracker

he made this setup

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=78097

[OkaPoka]

(its TA + tracker in 9p )

[skitter30]

SKITTER STOP SCUMREAD ME I AM IC NUMBER TWO

no, you're not

if you're capable of coming up with a reason for i should be townreading you for last night's deaths/actions, you're fully capable of, you know, actually implementing it as scum so that you can use it as proof of you being town the enxt day, which, incidentally, is what you're doing