Micro 880: A Normal Game - Game Over!

[OkaPoka]

VOTE: kop

[Ircher]

Day 3 VC #4

Kop (1) - OkaPoka (1875)

Not Voting (4) - Kop, Oversoul, skitter30, Firebringer (1797)

Lynch Threshold

With 5 alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch a player.

Deadline

This phase will end on August 3, 2019 2:15:00 PM EDT (GMT-4) or in (expired on 2019-08-03 14:15:00).

Moderator Notes

1. If you have regular weekend V/LA, you must either notify me each time or set V/LA tags each time.
2. If you see any errors in the votecount, please let me know.
3. Firebringer is V/LA indefinitely.

Voting History Key: * = Hammer, + = L-1 vote.

Spoiler: Current Voting History

Day 3

northsidegal (0):
OkaPoka: Kop (1745) --> (Null) (1751) --> Kop (1754+) --> (Null) (1757) --> Kop (1875)
Firebringer: Kop (1753) --> (Null) (1797)

Spoiler: Previous Voting History

Day 2

northsidegal: OkaPoka (1611)
OkaPoka:

Sleepless Assassin

(1414) --> Firebringer (1573) -->

Sleepless Assassin

(1649)
Sleepless Asssassin: northsidegal (1685)
skitter30: northsidegal (1441) -->

Sleepless Assassin

(1581)
Firebringer: northsidegal (1448) -->

Sleepless Assassin

(1699*)

TemporalLich

: OkaPoka (1168) --> (Null) (1327) --> Firebringer (1331) --> OkaPoka (1643) -->

Sleepless Assassin

(1688+)

Day 1

the worst (5): skitter30 (90) --> (Null) (168) --> OkaPoka (169) --> (Null) (253) --> SweetNSassy (340)
Oversoul (4): OkaPoka (404) -->

Dunnstral

(673) --> Kop (1028) -->

Dunnstral

(1142)

callforjudgement

(8): Firebringer (94) --> OkaPoka (157) --> the worst (222) --> OkaPoka (417) --> Kop (644) --> OkaPoka (1023) --> Kop (1051+) -->

Dunnstral

(1139)
OkaPoka (14): SweetNSassy (85) -->

Dunnstral

(105) -->

TemporalLich

(164) --> Kop (908) -->

TemporalLich

(963) --> Kop (993) --> Oversoul (998) -->

TemporalLich

(1004) --> Kop (1029) --> (Null) (1056) -->

TemporalLich

(1107) -->

Dunnstral

(1136) --> skitter30 (1138) -->

Dunnstral

(1145)

Dunnstral

(4): SweetNSassy (300) --> the worst (397) --> skitter30 (587) --> Oversoul (1132)
SweetNSassy (0):
Kop (3): skitter30 (860) -->

TemporalLich

(1106) -->

Dunnstral

(1147*)

Sleepless Assassin

(3):

TemporalLich

(93) -->

Dunnstral

(108) -->

TemporalLich

(158)
skitter30 (1): OkaPoka (191+)
Firebringer (8):

Dunnstral

(91) --> skitter30 (111) -->

Dunnstral

(138+) --> skitter30 (279) -->

TemporalLich

(687) --> skitter30 (979) --> Kop (992) -->

TemporalLich

(1108+)

TemporalLich

(7): OkaPoka (87) -->

Dunnstral

(109+) --> OkaPoka (167) --> Firebringer (285) --> OkaPoka (425+) --> Kop (1128) -->

Dunnstral

(1146+)

Dawn (Pregame; reference purposes only)

Sleepless Assassin

:

callforjudgement

(14)

[OkaPoka]

UNVOTE:

[Firebringer]

LETS DO THE HAMMER TEST

[Oversoul]

Ok. After rereading Day 1 slowly, I think this is my breakdown of the game and that Kop is definitely scum. I think FB might be the buddy.

---

Skitter is confirmed town due to her hammertest. If she is scum and didn't hammer for whatever reason, we have already lost so this might all be for nothing anyway.

Based off what we know, I think the setup is TA + 2-shot Friendly Neighbor vs 1-shot Roleblocker + Goon. I think Kop is lying about his mailman ability entirely since it has now been 2 nights where we have not seen him confirm himself. I think the roleblocker is 1-shot because that matches up with the Friendly Neighbor being limited shot. Additionally, the EV math on 2 confirmed townies (Friendly Neighbor/IC and TA) against 2 scum in a 9 person setup is still only ~33% (scroll down to according to the 9p setups with 2 innocents). I am treateing Traffic Analyst as a confirmed innocent for the purpose of this argument. In my limited experience designing setups, I think including a full roleblocker skews the EV too hard into scum's favor. Even with a 1-shot roleblocker, I still think that the EV is scumsided.

When we get to the claim itself, Oka had been at the precipice of death for days. He made it out by not claiming (at which point meant he is a VT). I think Kop realized that he would need to claim something in order to weather that storm once the pressure moved onto him. By the time he started crumbing both Oka and myself had just moved onto his wagon and the wagon swelled to L-2. I also find it odd how he said that he accepted his lynch because that was the consensus everyone wants, but then when asked to self-hammer he said he wouldn't.

Then we get to the matter of CFJ dying the first night. Kop conveniently claims that he visited CFJ the same night CFJ dies. I think Kop claiming to visit CFJ was to protect himself against a tracker potentially existing in the setup, that way his "role" could be confirmed and it would not immediately out him as scum for lying. Remember the EV thing I said earlier? About the setup still being scumsided? CFJ even pointed out a similar setup with a tracker being deemed normal, but swingy involving a TA + Tracker vs 2 goons. The scumteam could have been scared that a TA + Tracker + 2-shot Friendly Neighbor vs a 1-shot RB + Goon was the setup. From a scum perspective, that makes sense to try to "coincide" night actions so that at least the targets are believable. Hiding in plain sight. It also helps that CFJ did not fully believe Kop's role and said that it would sort itself out later. The language CFJ used in regards to Kop's role seems very skeptical and pretty much implies that CFJ was only letting Kop live because of the role itself.

Then we get to the fact that Temporal died the night he did, as opposed to the first night. Why not just kill him the first night and try to use your RB elsewhere? I think because scum was worried CFJ would gun for Kop the moment Kop's role was not confirmed. CFJ was just nommed for a title called Microprocessor because of how involved he is with Micro games. Particulary Micro,

normal

games. Anyone notice the title of this game? I would bet that scum killed CFJ for a combination of being on the right track (heh) by suspecting Kop and probably being able to create conftown through setup analysis

alone

. We were already a single step away from a massclaim.

But the Temp kill interests me beyond just being "oh he was a power role". Temp came into the announcing that he was 1) roleblocked and 2) attempted to target Firebringer. Additionally, Temp had been public about his not liking Kop for his hammer on Dunn. A PR that suspects both scum? That has to die from any scum point of view. That is why I think Temp died the night he did. From looking through Temp's iso, he seems to believe that Kop is town due to the mailman claim and that is pretty much it. Additionally, Temp had announced suspicion of both Oka and FB. It is possible that scum did not want to kill Temp the first night because they didn't think he was that accurate and thus not a threat. Once he claimed on Day 2, Temp, from a Kop + FB team, had to be eliminated.

If I had gotten mail, I would probably not being going after Kop. FB + Oka have pretty awful wagon interactions from my glance through their ISOs, but when I did not get mail today that pretty much confirmed Kop after I thought about the setup.

FB I think makes sense as scum after that hammer. That hammer was awful. It came out of nowhere and stunted town discussion tremendously. He didn't even wait for a claim. I can see scum doing that fearing another power role lurking to avoid getting nightkilled.

I am going with my gut that Oka is town. The emotion and the effort that he exerted casing Temp look really townie after rereading Day 1. I admit he did get paranoid and very wagon happy after his dissipated, but I think that was symptom of pretty much everyone saying that his case was correct, but that did not mean Temp was scum. That would have driven me bonkers too.

---

For the record, I think hammer testing FB is a bad idea. I think hammer testing Kop is also a bad idea. FB has a recent scum game finished (Guns and Roses II) so I am going to look to see if there are any similarities.

[skitter30]

Skitter is confirmed town due to her hammertest. If she is scum and didn't hammer for whatever reason, we have already lost so this might all be for nothing anyway.

Well nominally i could be scum with kop, to be technical

[skitter30]

also find it odd how he said that he accepted his lynch because that was the consensus everyone wants, but then when asked to self-hammer he said he wouldn't.

Tbf i dont think i ever self-hammer in that situation, so i'm not sure that's a reason to scumread him

[skitter30]

FB I think makes sense as scum after that hammer. That hammer was awful. It came out of nowhere and stunted town discussion tremendously. He didn't even wait for a claim. I can see scum doing that fearing another power role lurking to avoid getting nightkilled.

It's awful, sure, not sure its ai for him at all tho

[skitter30]

I think it's a bad idea to hammertest really anyone tbh

I think i'm ok with lynching kop today

[Firebringer]

what is everyones scum teams right now?

cause I am thinking oversoul/kop.

Oversoul, what is ur team?

[OkaPoka]

Firebringer that's my team as well

Also literally everyone suspects kop

So kop starts the vote

[skitter30]

Kop/oka

[OkaPoka]

At least u suspect kop so I won't complain

[skitter30]

You basically said the same thing when i thought it was you/nsg, so long as i didnt vote u first

[Oversoul]

Ok. After rereading Day 1 slowly, I think this is my breakdown of the game and that Kop is definitely scum. I think FB might be the buddy.

It was the first paragraph of my post dude. First paragraph.

[Oversoul]

also find it odd how he said that he accepted his lynch because that was the consensus everyone wants, but then when asked to self-hammer he said he wouldn't.

Tbf i dont think i ever self-hammer in that situation, so i'm not sure that's a reason to scumread him

Really? I think self-hammering is the town thing to do objectively. Or else we end up here in Lylo with all our unaswered questions from the first day.

[skitter30]

i wouldn't hammer myself

tbf i'm also like never in that situation either

[Oversoul]

Consider yourself lucky

I think the only time I don’t self hammer is if I am in LyLo.

[skitter30]

i've only been mislynched as town twice, both in lylo, both while i was vla

i get run up sometimes, but i'm very good at talking my way out of it

[skitter30]

i'll let kop give any last words before i vote

[Oversoul]

God I’m jealous. I never get nightkilled and get mL’d often as either alignment. I think my first three games I was brought to 3P LyLo. That sucked

[skitter30]

i was in a bunch of lylos for a while but then i was nk'd a bunch of times; this is the third lylo i've been in in the last month or so, which is a lot for me recently

[OkaPoka]

yes skitter it turns out if you are willing to vote who i suspect then im a happy camper

[skitter30]

my point is that who you suspected changed

[OkaPoka]

i can lynch either nsg/kop since start of today and probably yesterday as well

i had a pool of nsg/kop/sleepless assassin since yesterday altho i did submit a tinfoil solve to the mod