Alisae V Pine: Trees Apparently Make Good Treestumps

[Krazy]

I see that she also had doubts about you

because I wasn't sheeping her on her read of you...

in pfup I think we consistently TR each other from early D1 despite some late game paranoia in both directions

but Pine wasn't in that game? And you weren't scum? In what sense then did you "pocket" PB?

[Krazy]

I think she was less sure of that than she was during our early interaction, and so I don't think she targets me without a late day crumb to reconfirm that.

Like, OK, I can understand this, but your reaction to this push still bothers me. I feel like you went very hard into arguing that she would therefore hide behind a townread and was wrong, or someone she had doubts on but definitely never crumbed, and I feel like you're making that leap to move the conversation away from the simplest scenario, which is that Ank died hiding behind her strongest living scumread (i.e. you).

I feel like you want to move the conversation away from pops in a way that maybe spews pops town, because you don't want pops to get lynched as a green flip there would at that point doom your slot. Like, that's highly speculative, but arguing that we shouldn't be thinking Ank hit a guilty at all is pretty much exactly what I'd expect someone who thinks they have a guilty on them to be arguing.

[Menalque]

I see that she also had doubts about you

because I wasn't sheeping her on her read of you...

in pfup I think we consistently TR each other from early D1 despite some late game paranoia in both directions

but Pine wasn't in that game? And you weren't scum? In what sense then did you "pocket" PB?

(1) was that all? I’ll go and check later. I thought it was your content in general.

(2) I don’t think pine not being in that means he wouldn’t prepare for this game by reading recent games. I don’t think you need to be scum to pocket someone

[Menalque]

I think she was less sure of that than she was during our early interaction, and so I don't think she targets me without a late day crumb to reconfirm that.

Like, OK, I can understand this, but your reaction to this push still bothers me. I feel like you went very hard into arguing that she would therefore hide behind a townread and was wrong, or someone she had doubts on but definitely never crumbed, and I feel like you're making that leap to move the conversation away from the simplest scenario, which is that Ank died hiding behind her strongest living scumread (i.e. you).

I feel like you want to move the conversation away from pops in a way that maybe spews pops town, because you don't want pops to get lynched as a green flip there would at that point doom your slot. Like, that's highly speculative, but arguing that we shouldn't be thinking Ank hit a guilty at all is pretty much exactly what I'd expect someone who thinks they have a guilty on them to be arguing.

Like, no shit Sherlock, because I know that scenario is impossible.

If there was a good reason to believe that she hid behind a SR rather thanTR which is not a case I think you’ve successfully made, then I’d be thinking about pops.

But right now I think your last two points are both just deflections trying to make the conversation about other things (i.e. the discussion on pocketing and bringing up pops there)

[Krazy]

Saying you're doing what I think you'd be doing as scum is a "deflection"?

And you're saying you don't think I've successfully made a case that she hid behind scum -- but you have it backward. Hiding behind a townread is the harder to defend position, because it means that if she is wrong and dies behind someone she townread then town may risk thinking the person she was scumreading is who she hid behind, and thus not only would she die but she would be providing town with *anti* information. This is precisely why, despite people saying "oh yeah I'd hide behind town" I think aren't thinking it through all the way. The *default* for weak hider is to hide behind scum reads and to match your checks to your reads precisely because otherwise you are fucking town if you are wrong on your townreads. So it's you who needs to defend the position that she would *not* hide behind her top scumread, when that is in my mind almost the objectively suboptimal play

[Alisae]

Alright it looks like there's already been some discussion on whether Ank has a comprehensible crumb. I'm not sure my theory is better than anyone else's but I figure it's at least worth asking about.

Ankamius
Alisae
Chickadee
Aristophanes
The worst
Firebringer
Greyice
Skygazer
MariaR
Untrod Tripod
Krazy
DrippingGoofball
Xofelf
Pink Ball
Katsuki
Formerfish
PenguinPower
Jjh927
Popsofctown
Gamma Emerald
Iconeum
Dannflor
Mastina
chennisden
Menalque
Lady Lambdadelta
Pine

Roughly where my reads are at atm

4. I'm pretty much always a nightkill by scum this game as town, most likely in midgame somewhere before I hit my stride and start hitting outright solves. I'd be surprised if scum didn't have at least one person that was aware of this, and Pine has seen a recent enough example to believe it.

5. Alisae, this is specifically to you: I've literally never played with Menalque before. I don't know how he plays. He fits the specific type of player I've been trying to hunt for because the way I'm seeing the game, that specific type is the most likely to hold scum. His response to me was horrific. At best, he has a playstyle that will always result in false positives for me, but I don't actually understand what about him is townreadable unless he just has one of those weird playstyles I can't actually read.

1906 is Ank's longest post, and she spends a whole point emphasizing how likely she is to be killed at night, and then immediately follows it with a discussion of Menalque and how difficult it is to read him, specifically calling out Alisae. I'm just saying, given 1906 is Ank's longest post, she wanted Mena basically all day, but she also wanted him gone *in part because she felt he was unreadable* he sounds like someone she would be very inclined to want a mech result on, unlike other people who she only mentioned in passing. Additionally, given her reads list on 1548, there's no reason to think she would have had an incentive to seriously reconsider her reads after LLD's flip.

I say this as someone who spent day 1 mostly townreading Menalque, and I am well aware I could be wrong here. But she was still scumreading Mena late into the day and ultimately I've only played with scum Mena once so I have to consider I was just wrong there.

Obviously other people have theories on what might have been Ank's most likely crumb, but overall I think ignoring Ank's actually likely targets is a bad idea. In any case I do see there being likely opposed candidates for crumbs from later in the day but to me this really looks like a Mena check.

VOTE: Mena

@Krazy does the context of 1906 change anything or?

[Krazy]

What context are you thinking of?

[Alisae]

The context of 1906.
Why Alyssa even wrote the post

[Alisae]

Actually nvm
I think this line of questioning is pretty stupid mostly because i’m High and I don’t see the point and fully read it.

[Alisae]

Either way

I don’t think its something I want to focus on atm. Atleast not until both xof and dgb slots go.


Also um
DGB is getting herself lynched
Why don’t we just lynch xofelf instead?

Like, there HAS To be a reason and if DGB is getting in the way to save xof, xof is a slot that she wants alive, and I feel like the correct play is to lynch Xof then?

[Alisae]

Like, we’re killing both slots.
I just don’t see why DGB has to go > xofelf first.

[Krazy]

Okay, I'm just going to go into this now because this shit is very relevant to my alignment.

I mean rereading it again makes me think even more that this is setup for a crumb, especially given the callout to you at the end of the post

in terms of what else was going on, she didn't need to defend her alignment at that point given she was at l-0. there was like some very minor pushes on her earlier, a passing vote from you, but nothing really substantial. the post stands out even more looking at it in context tbh

[Alisae]

Yeah okay see I realized that after I asked
So I’m kinda just high

[the worst]

Krazzy I think Mena's posting on page 169 is townposting

[the worst]

hmm or is it
this is confusing.

[the worst]

I like his confusion and paranoia about the {dann, tw, chicka, krazy} group but it also feels like a really strange set of players to single out and I suppose I'd expect paranoid panicking town who thinks they're being rolled to be a bit more like... Paranoid or panicky. I like what he's saying but I don't really like how much he's struggling to have a tangible stance.

It doesn't seem that hard to me to look at e.g. duck/dann and go "look, two people townreading each other and sometimes agreeing on things, I see two townies" and I suppose what he's doing is actually ineffectual hedgy fearmongering rather than actually freaking out

Don't really have an opinion on the stuff you're going back & forth about though, sorry.

[the worst]

I'm back to not caring about Mena all that much sorry, I'll have another go later. I think it's worth noting there's decisively an agenda to his posts, just not sure if town agenda trying to check what he sees as an irksome townblock or scum agenda in trying to poison what he views as a problematic townblock

actually the more I think about it the more practical scum motivation I see smh

[Aristophanes]

I also just kinda don't think Ank uses a night 1 hide on a townread (like Mena argues) or on someone who in 1548 she lists above Gamma and Dann. I think she's probably getting pissed in the graveyard most likely because I think if you look at her iso wholistically her target is obvious without the need for a crumb

This is extremely misguided and I've already said why. I can dig up the post again where she said she would be minimizing the pool where possible scum could hide and not trying to actually hide behind scum.

Also, using AtE about her getting mad from beyond death was a nice touch, but no.

Krazy I gotta be honest this post seems pretty disingenuous and kinda pushes you into scumlean territory. Sorry!

[Chickadee]

Final point is that I'm kind of less sure about everything this game due to having far weaker relationships with the majority of people here than most other players in the game, which makes me less confident on who I think pine would pick, and gives me less meta to draw from in who should be where. On the upside of that, I doubt scum plays with me in mind this game.

One thing I don't like is the interactions between ducky, dann, chicka, and Krazy. It's hard to put my finger on, but there seems like there's a lot of coordination there. I think if someone was pocketing me, dann is a likely target because we've played together and I think I was hard TRing him there quite quickly. I don't like that he's the one chicka added, and I don't like how he and ducky seem to be driving things in a certain direction.

That said, I also don't like the self-vote from DGB (for obvious reasons). Mastina changing her claim isn't good, but also seems like something Mastina would do? I mostly don't love Mastina because I think she's been less incisive than when I've played with town her/3rd party her. I don't really have a read on Xof but I guess it could be distancing?

Pretty much none of my reads are strong enough for me to fight anyone on them, and I wasn't particularly sure that lld was scum (mostly because I know she has a reputation as a

very

strong scum player, so I didn't think she'd implode like that on D1 quite so spectacularly -- in fact, that makes me feel like it could have been an intentional throw to give towncred to people who hard pushed her early, but we'll see).

I know this is kind of hedgy and non-committal, but I'm not confident enough in my own reads to go against town consensus when it could just be that I'm getting bad feels because the group in the first four (ducky, dann, Krazy, chicka) are just mind melding, but I wanted to put this out there for discussion.

Also, don't like that based on my Ank thinking two people from that group were very viable hider targets for her.

confusion and paranoia about the {dann, tw, chicka, krazy} group but it also feels like a really strange set of players to single out

snipped to show my exact thoughts here..

[Pine]

So this gamble shit has to be resolved before day end if fish is going to get the block right

Pine are you stalling or something or what?

I’ve decided to ignore what I feel are bad-faith bargaining attempts.

If no one wants the Roleblocker fruit I’ll just keep it. I’ll probably intro the other fruit after school (~2-3 hours)

I see that she also had doubts about you

because I wasn't sheeping her on her read of you...

in pfup I think we consistently TR each other from early D1 despite some late game paranoia in both directions

but Pine wasn't in that game? And you weren't scum? In what sense then did you "pocket" PB?

(1) was that all? I’ll go and check later. I thought it was your content in general.

(2) I don’t think pine not being in that means he wouldn’t prepare for this game by reading recent games. I don’t think you need to be scum to pocket someone

For the record, I almost never read games I wasn’t in. I find it incredibly boring. I rely on my own skill rather than situational meta.

The only preparation I did for this game, other than setup and invitational stuff, was draw up brief dossiers on all of you to help me draft. And when I say brief, all 24ish players who were in at the time fit on one sheet of legal pad paper with some room to spare

[Pine]

Hey pops

You want this fruit?

No charge if you say yes in your next post

~Red coloring added. Jingle

[Pine]

Bollocks, forgot the red coloring

[Chickadee]

Pops, take it

[Aristophanes]

Real life snippets from the document:

"Aristophanes - Nah

Xofelf - Nobody would ever expect this! Muahahaha

LLD - Every team needs a strong player who is unlikely to endgame. Hellz yes!"

[Aristophanes]

I might bargain for a fruit sometime. It's gotta be a damn nice fruit tho!