Guns & Roses III [Game over]

[AaronFrost]

I never said that. What I was referring to (and which struck me as odd) is that you listed out all the names Pret gave out as possible scumbuddies of mine. I think Town would be more likely to just name Pret's strongest SR (me) then to list a bunch of names out. Why did you a bit after listing them conclude that both kills were probably made by scum?

And how would that logic be still holding up if Creature were alive?

If it was a scum kill then at least one person in that list likely scum. Saying 'oh it must have been Datisi because that was Pret's strongest scum read' is very surface level.

And if Creature is still alive and scumreading me, then scum!me is going to do everything I can to look town. Since he was lynched, if I were scum I'd be breathing a huge sigh of relief right now.

Town!me isn't going to let another player's read on me effect how I play.

Do you think there's scum in that list? Who do you suspect?

And okay, but that logic could still only hold true if you were scum to begin with?

I think it's likely. Right now I think Dogwatch is the most likely to flip scum. I don't like how she opened today by saying the Creature wagon was town motivated and the Amrun wagon was scum motivated despite most of the players on the Amrun wagon being on the Creature wagon.

Yeah I suppose that logic could hold true but I think it'd have a harder time faking it as scum.

[Menalque]

If all 3 scum are on wagon when we know it was being pushed by town (sally) then why was it so hard to get through

[Menalque]

3 scum on wagon makes no sense from a gamestate pov

[texcat]

Like there isn’t enough there for me to have a solid read yet

I have some paranoia around SS mostly bc I felt like he was resisting everything I was trying to do D1 and I think normally we’ve worked quite cooperatively together? But still think he’s prob town

So that just leaves ddl but again, idk if scum!him leaves me alive after my D1 push

Or that's what scum!him wants you to think. Don't drink the wine.

Had you already had the thought about 2 on 1 off?

No, I think that kind of unsupported VCA statement is garbage and a distraction.

I may read a specific player because I think their reasoning for being on or off the wagon did or didn't make sense, but trying to specifically hunt the scum who was off the wagon is a recipe for disaster.

Without a flip of the counterwagons, I agree with this. If Aaron or Amrun is scum, there might be more scum on the Creature wagon. If they are both town, then scum was more likely off wagon.

[Something_Smart]

It’s probably 2 on 1 off because of the wagon resistance on creature

Can you explain this?

[AaronFrost]

It is though, assuming that he knows himself to be town. For someone who was off the wagon, it would be a 25% chance of hitting scum

No. It's only true if we are completely positive that it's 2-on 1-off, which we aren't. Just because that's the most likely scenario doesn't mean we can take it for granted.

Fair enough. I think it is the most likely scenario too but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be true.

[Something_Smart]

No I'm not being intentionally dense. The strongest wagon resistance to Creature was Creature himself, me, Pretentious, and you whom I townread. It was, by and large, TOWN resistance.

The fact that the wagon went through despite heavy town resistance should make it more likely than random that all 3 scum were on it, no?

[Menalque]

So that just leaves ddl but again, idk if scum!him leaves me alive after my D1 push

Pret was the only person besides yourself who actually ended up voting DDL, and he's dead. Any reason you don't mention it/take it into account?

Plus, not like your DDL push was that hard (or working). S'there a reason to think scum!DDL fear-kills you like that?

I forgot about that, but I still think ddl would want to kill me over FL bc I think FL was more preoccupied with you than with him

Also I think ddl probably knows me enough to know that a push not gaining ground is something I’m likely to double down on pushing rather than forget about, and also bc he knows I can get pushes through

What’s your ddl read?

What do you think about my argument for why we should lynch off wagon?

You've played with DDL before?

Same as yesterday, disinterested nullish-Town.

I'm still thinking about it, I've never played a game that wasn't a Micro, I'm not yet familiar with VCA in this setting. Plus I'd like to revisit a couple of things from D1 properly, and I probably won't have time for that until Monday.

Yeah, although actually we haven’t played together where I’ve been town but I thought he meta’d me for C9++ although maybe I’m remembering wrong

Also, hmm

[Datisi]

Like there isn’t enough there for me to have a solid read yet

I have some paranoia around SS mostly bc I felt like he was resisting everything I was trying to do D1 and I think normally we’ve worked quite cooperatively together? But still think he’s prob town

So that just leaves ddl but again, idk if scum!him leaves me alive after my D1 push

Or that's what scum!him wants you to think. Don't drink the wine.

Do you think DDL is scum?

[Datisi]

Also, hmm

hmm?

[Something_Smart]

If all 3 scum are on wagon when we know it was being pushed by town (sally) then why was it so hard to get through

How was it hard to get through? The wagon only sprung up because Creature wasn't posting, and the he started posting, and nobody batted an eyelash and he was lynched anyway.

Just because it took a lot of time doesn't mean it was hard. There was no counterwagon and almost nobody on the wagon made any effort to create one, pretty much sealing his fate.

[DrDolittle]

i am here ama

[Menalque]

No I'm not being intentionally dense. The strongest wagon resistance to Creature was Creature himself, me, Pretentious, and you whom I townread. It was, by and large, TOWN resistance.

The fact that the wagon went through despite heavy town resistance should make it more likely than random that all 3 scum were on it, no?

Hmm, maybe

The only thing I’m not sure about is you being town and the fact that scum!you has a strong incentive to angle for a 3 scum on angle

Then again idk why scum!you doesn’t go with this when I didn’t wanna lynch you out of the off wagon trio anyway

What do you think of ddl and tex independently at this point?

If all scum is on wagon who do you think it is?

[Menalque]

If all 3 scum are on wagon when we know it was being pushed by town (sally) then why was it so hard to get through

How was it hard to get through? The wagon only sprung up because Creature wasn't posting, and the he started posting, and nobody batted an eyelash and he was lynched anyway.

Just because it took a lot of time doesn't mean it was hard. There was no counterwagon and almost nobody on the wagon made any effort to create one, pretty much sealing his fate.

It felt like it was hard to get through, and I think generally wagons stalling out is indicative that they’re not easy wagons

Also I think there was at least one effort to create a counterwagon on ddl and I thought on someone else too?

[Menalque]

Also, hmm

hmm?

Hmmm

[Something_Smart]

What do you think of ddl and tex independently at this point?

Both could be scum. Boon expressed some suspicion of texcat and was voting DDL so I can see either of them killing him. There was something I mildly liked about DDL but idr what it is.

Texcat has had very little content, at least from what I can remember. Would have to look at her more in depth and I can't do that rn.

[Something_Smart]

Also I think there was at least one effort to create a counterwagon on ddl and I thought on someone else too?

Creature and I tried wagoning Aaron but nobody else left the Creature wagon to join the counterwagons, meaning they were basically only going to allow him to be lynched.

[Datisi]

i am here ama

got any reads to share?

[Something_Smart]

It felt like it was hard to get through, and I think generally wagons stalling out is indicative that they’re not easy wagons

The wagon only stalled out once it got to L-1...

[DrDolittle]

here's where i am at

scum reads
Amrun
AaronFrost
Dogwatch

my ?? reads
Something_Smart
texcat
Datisi

my town reads
Iconeum
Menalque
GuiltyLion
alimdia

[DrDolittle]

i strongly recommend just lynching amrun

[alimdia]

V/LA from the 17th-18th of Dec

Can mod acknowledge? Actually its from 16th-18th now.

Finally, I think the town gun should claim if they are a Night 1 or Night 2 gun. It's basically a innocent child if nobody CC's

Also I don't think we should have the Town gun out, at least not yet?

Well if they're being pushed.

It sounds like if we lynch amrun and they flip town, then the people on both wagons are very likely to be at least 2 scum.

However, if we lynch amrun and they flip scum, then the people in both are unlikely to be scum, or at least only one.

Finally, I think the town gun should claim if they are a Night 1 or Night 2 gun. It's basically a innocent child if nobody CC's

I can't make heads nor tails of the first two sentences.

But the town gun should not claim. The only reason to claim would be if you were being lynched on the same day as your gun. Or perhaps they might claim if they were being lynched after they had used their shot.

Thats why I said NIght 1 or 2 gun? And a gun claim at L1 as a gun is.... I'm not sure if I believe that.

[alimdia]

Sorry also the first 2 sentences are basically saying that by lynching Amrun, we can figure out more info about who was on the wagon.

I think others have discussed that in the last 2 pages.

[alimdia]

I never said that. What I was referring to (and which struck me as odd) is that you listed out all the names Pret gave out as possible scumbuddies of mine. I think Town would be more likely to just name Pret's strongest SR (me) then to list a bunch of names out. Why did you a bit after listing them conclude that both kills were probably made by scum?

And how would that logic be still holding up if Creature were alive?

If it was a scum kill then at least one person in that list likely scum. Saying 'oh it must have been Datisi because that was Pret's strongest scum read' is very surface level.

And if Creature is still alive and scumreading me, then scum!me is going to do everything I can to look town. Since he was lynched, if I were scum I'd be breathing a huge sigh of relief right now.

Town!me isn't going to let another player's read on me effect how I play.

Do you think there's scum in that list? Who do you suspect?

And okay, but that logic could still only hold true if you were scum to begin with?

I think it's likely. Right now I think Dogwatch is the most likely to flip scum. I don't like how she opened today by saying the Creature wagon was town motivated and the Amrun wagon was scum motivated despite most of the players on the Amrun wagon being on the Creature wagon.

Yeah I suppose that logic could hold true but I think it'd have a harder time faking it as scum.

Wait I SR DW as well... but are you TRing Amrun atm or ?

[Datisi]

Also I think there was at least one effort to create a counterwagon on ddl and I thought on someone else too?

Does getting one more vote about 10h before deadline really count as an effort for a counterwagon?