Open 770: Monty Hall Mafia (Game Over)

[popsofctown]

Elsa lost a 5th of her scum equity today cause 5 people were alive when the poison happened.

Therefore worst should lose a seventh of his scum equity because 7 people were alive when a poison happened.
8/15 - (1/7)(8/15) = 56/105 - 8/105 = 48/105
Then the equity has to be distributed onto the other players, each other player get 8/315 equity.
Elsa Jay = 2/5 + 8/315 = 126/315 + 8/315 = 134/315.
Chemist and pops = 8/15 + 8/315 = 168/315 + 8/315 = 176/315
the worst was already discussed but to match our denominators: 144/315.

If my math is correct the total sum should be two scums.
134/315 + 176/315 + 176/315 + 144/315 = 310/315 + 320/315 = 630/315=2

So the odds each unconfirmed player is scum is
pops 55.87%
Chemist 55.87%
worst 45.71%
Elsa Jay 42.54%

[popsofctown]

I feel like if Chemist has a 56% math probability to be town ontop of the iso that he has it feels like I need to hurt him

[popsofctown]

*to be scum

PP has a 100% probability to be a penguin so I'm not using my vote till we discuss more, though I don't think I'd use it anyway

[popsofctown]

Yeah, you'd assume they want the duck there since he was garunteed safe. Unless your trying to hang him in which case... Pop/Chen again.

Frankly I want Pop to talk about their stance

I'm rereading and saw this but I don't know what's being asked of me

This isn't the binglesque who would you NK thing is it?

[PenguinPower]

[Elsa Jay]

Fuck. Math is my weakness and I cant understand Pop. But they also said via math they have the highest Scum Equity? The Fuck?

[Elsa Jay]

EJ - 40%
worst - 53.3%*
pops - 53.3%
Chemist - 53.3%

worst still has reduced probability from yesterday, I think. Like the event didn't not happen. But I'm not sure how you math it in

If I only get one question, this post is the weirdest? With Pengu being poisoned and not scum, with 5 people left... And you yourself know your not scum, your already at a 1/3 chance from the rest of us, right?

Like... I really gotta know if your not taking into account knowing your town here or something.

[popsofctown]

These are the odds from PP's or a spectator's point of view. When I'm doing pure maths it doesn't make sense to factor in that I know I'm town, or other stuff like that Chemist's dayplay is worse than yours.

You've actually got me thinking, I'm not sure whether from my point of view knowing I'm town like "enhances the Monty Hall effect" and I should even more strongly favor lynching Chemist, or whether it's about the same and the proportions in #500 are reflective of how excited I should be about lynching each slot.

[Chemist1422]

math is my scum meta tbh

it probably applies to pops as well but this is funny so I'll ignore it

[popsofctown]

I think you meant I'm 2/3rds to be scum to you (ignoring MH), not 1/3rd. I'm 1/2 to be scum to PP ignoring MH

and that he's scumreading me

.

After mulling it over a little bit I think maybe you change the Monty Hall denominator when you do the odds for mine and chemist's point of view, and change it again a different way for worst's point of view, and change it again a different way for you're point of view, but the ranking order still always comes out EJ>worst>chemops.

It's gonna be pretty similar and calculating the odds for PP's point of view was enough of a hassle already that I don't really wanna do that.

[Elsa Jay]

Just do it from your point of view and from my point of view. The Duck and the ghost are irrelevant.

[popsofctown]

From your point of view we didn't even really play Monty Hall today because you already knew you were town, so tw just transfers a seventh of his scum equity to the other nonbirds and that's that. He starts with 1/2 scum equity because we're doing a player POV thing where you're solving the game thinking half the other players are town and half are scum.

2/3 - (1/7)(2/3) = 14/21 - 2/21 = 12/21
Chemist and pops each get half of the lost equity (the 2/21) so 1/21
14/21+1/21 = 15/21

worst - 12/21
pops - 15/21
chemist - 15/21
15 + 15 + 12 =42, 42/21 is 2, so these odds produce 2 scums.
worst - 57.14%
pops - 71.43%
chemist - 71.43%
PP - peng%

[popsofctown]

My brain is having trouble with the 3 way interaction between the day 1 monty hall and the day 2 monty hall and knowing I'm town so trying to figure out the way it works from my point of view is vexing me

how badly do you need that one :X

[Elsa Jay]

Just tell me why you think I'm less likely to be scum, and/or how a pairing of the Ghost and Duck makes sense

[the worst]

How can the goat be irrelevant? He basically runs this game

[popsofctown]

You are less likely to be scum because you were protected today and weren't killed, so the Monty Hall effect partially clears you. Since you replaced in you're not necessarily enthusiastic/knowledgeable about the Monty Hall problem but there's this weird paradoxical effect to it where you pick someone to be immune to getting exposed, then expose somebody else, then the person immune to getting exposed becomes less likely to be different from the thing that was exposed. It's like really hard to explain Monty Hall, that's why it's famous

Duchemist makes plenty of sense to me, the worst voted Chemist long enough to make it seem like they weren't aligned but never long enough to put Chemist in heavy danger, and kept changing focus onto you and nona when Chemist is a player that really stays under the radar.

[Elsa Jay]

G-h-o-s-t, not Goat.

[the worst]

Yeah goat, like the spooky dudes who move through walls

[the worst]

Duckchemist might be the most confusing scumteam suggestion possible rn

[Elsa Jay]

So is it duckpops?

[popsofctown]

I'm not positive it's chemist/worst, I think it could be chemist/elsa, against the odds. I'm just gonna decide it's not elsa/worst ever, I've thought all game that I don't think it's impossible that's been a scum theatre pair but with the monty hall having a clearing effect on both slots I just don't want to consider that team, if that's the team bravo GG I don't want to think about it.

So FMPOV chemist always dies.

The IC thinks I am scum though and I can't sincerely like not say mathematically the setup tilts towards me so I'm maybe getting mislynched for the game here.

[Elsa Jay]

Well yeah frankly I see us lynching Chemist, me being poisoned day 3, and losing the game on a mislynch. So uh.... Please make yourself as townie as possible, third townie.

[the worst]

Bllregfhhhh I'm tryinggg

[Elsa Jay]

I still think it's you worst but I don't feel like giving the game to Pops if she literally tried to lynch her partner, but you got hung instead.

[the worst]

I'm not totally sure how to obvtown in this gamestate so I guess I'll just start posting