White Flag - TM2020

[Formerfish]

Ok, im here and feel like shit because im so far behind on things here but its because i havent been living like a fucking weirdo staying up all night playing and being productive in life for once, so i guess i dont feel all that bad.

I am going to read now. I will be here for awhile. Holla.

[Dannflor]

If Espe were scum, does he respond to a L-1 wagon with a single super chill post and then take a little time to actually do things?

I don't get the impression that Espeonage is a terrible player. Nor does he strike me as the type of player to freak out when pressured. Do you have other reasons to town read him?

Why are we not lynching hopkirk thoigh I am a bit confused on tgat

Why is Hopkirk your #1 scum read over others?

@Espeonage

, your representation of me in your points seems either deliberately off or conf-biased. I won't argue personally that I should get any town cred for swinging back to NSG end of day, but that was not the first time I'd voted her. I quoted my whole progression earlier today, but I'd gone back and forth between FF and NSG about three times with votes. Personally I think if I'd known NSG was as dead in the water as I now realize in retrospect, you would not have seen me with that indecision, and I would have just hard committed to the bus.

You even recognized this very thing in me in #1283 so I find your take on me now odd to say the least.

@Pops/Cheeky

, I agree on FF. I think I was rather quick to clear him based on the NSG vote, which is why I'm very interested in how his stances change coming into today. While I think NSG's specific phrasing still makes FF slightly lean towards town, I'm not as ready to clear him as I was coming into the day. I agree FF is not as impressive as town as I expect from him, which was part of my argument yesterday when I was wanting to kill him over NSG. There are other explanations for this though such as lack of time or the pressure TM brings.

I understand your paranoia about Cephrir—I think his posts about Espeonage this page were pretty bad—and I even had some tin foil hat theories about Dunnstral in my team discord (which I quickly scrapped!) earlier this day phase. But overall, I don't think searching for "the deep wolf" is going to be productive. I find it hard to believe there isn't one scum between [Espeonage, Dongempire, Hopkirk] with strong money on Espeonage. And one more lynch is all that's necessary to end the game.

I'm going to out this now:

Eddie Cane actually asked for Pop's reads specifically because Pops greatly prefers town to scum and thought the quality of her response/thoughts would be alignment indicative for Cheeky

as of right now Eddie Cane says Cheeky is lock town and this isn't a read that should be revisited until a hypothetical LyLo. I'm in agreement with this.

I think Eddie's read should be respected due to obvious reasons even if you don't respect my own individual town reads on Cheeky/Pops.

Still believe Espeonage has the highest chance of flipping red out of any slot. I would like to kill it quickly but FF and Hopkirk can have time to catch up first.

[Espeonage]

I was looking from the pivotal vote count onwards. As I said everything before that has already been covered.

Like the specific phase where there is the jump and scramble for end of day lynches is most certainly the strongest part of the day for any sort of relational analysis.

Like even if you take me out of my town reads I think mechanically there are at most 6 mechanically viable lynches. Five if I don't include myself.

[Espeonage]

Given how many mislynches we have I will vote for any of these.

Dann, Dunn, Auro, Hop, and FF

[Espeonage]

If you want me to vote elsewhere talk to me about my relational analysis or sell me on cheeky or ceph.

[Cephrir]

Do you have other reasons to town read him?

Not that will do anything for you. I just don't feel it.

[Formerfish]

My kill pool is:

[Esp, Dong, Hopkirk]

This is exactly my kill pool right now

I think Dong is low hanging fruit, his play has been sporadic but I have an idea why and its NAI.

Espy went through a lot of trouble yesterday to explain why I need to die regardless and I think thats a pretty easy position for scum to take on me because it ensures at least 1 mislynch.

Hoppy id have to go back and look at because other then the recent quoted post where he linked me to 2 people but didnt mention the people hard defending NSG as being suspect is a little uhh... spotty logic at best and shade trying to set up 3 mislynches in myself, Gob and Dunn.

[Dannflor]

Espeonage, I find it a little weird your top town read in turn scum reads you. Does that give you pause at all in your read?

I'm surprised you haven't tried to engage with her at all on it.

[Dannflor]

Dann, Dunn, Auro, Hop, and FF

I would be very unsurprised if this was 5 town.

[Espeonage]

Engaged with her yesterday. I feel like I have sorted her, I am happy with that. I am also quite content in my plan for game solve as being quite strong. My own analysis puts me in the Lynch pool for any player not named me.

Like I am as close to certain as anyone can be in mafia that here is at least 1 and possibly 2 scum in my five player pool. And those are pretty damn good odds even if people consider it 1 or 2 in a 6 person pool.

Better than random lynching and a good sight better to rally people behind.

[Espeonage]

Dann, Dunn, Auro, Hop, and FF

I would be very unsurprised if this was 5 town.

I would honestly be a teeny bit surprised if it didn't contain two scum.

[Espeonage]

I may be throwing away BB too easily, but eh.

[Auro]

UNVOTE:
Sigh

[Auro]

FF have you discussed the game with Reundo yet? What's his solve?

[Formerfish]

I can't even understand why you're mad unless you're scum, I feel great about how

we

punished NSG's shitty play

I feel like you sat on me until it was clear I wasnt going down. Werent you defending NSG early, and most, of day 1?

[Formerfish]

FF have you discussed the game with Reundo yet? What's his solve?

We talked about him getting into the game on Saturday, no ones posted in the team PT since then.

[Formerfish]

So yeah Dann trying to Lynch me for points he agreed with smells scummy to me.

Your case makes sense, and would reinforce my read on dann from parts of d1. Do you think his flipflopping and indecision is town unsure of whats windmill and whats a dragon, or scum unsure who to have too strong of an opinion of because of potential future events?

[Espeonage]

I am not sure how to parse that question.

[Dannflor]

We don't need both scum, so I think anyone who was not in good town standing on the NSG wagon should just be excluded from the Lynch pool for at least a couple of days. Which I think removes Gobble, BBM, and Dong from the effective Lynch pool.

Can you re-explain this?

How does this make sense? This reads to me like "I only want to lynch townie people" for... what reason exactly?

I can understand a town read on Dong tangentially but why are you clearing Gobble and BBM—even if just for "a couple days."

[Formerfish]

I think Hopkirk is all around much townier than either Dongempire or Espeonage. Like I can *see* it, so I'm not gonna go off at his wagon like I did with Auro, but he's definitely not my first choice today.

Dann v Espy is not tvt. I see Dann flipping red more often than Espy, at least Espy commited to a read, its a bad one, but a read none the less.

I dont agree that Hoppy is more town than anyone right now. The AtE about NSG and RC is a little over the top for me and showy. Like he has to make a big vocal show about how aghast he is that NSG would have the gall to play the way she did. Like a "lady doth protest to much" situation.

Are you reading his posts today as town?

[Espeonage]

We don't need both scum, so I think anyone who was not in good town standing on the NSG wagon should just be excluded from the Lynch pool for at least a couple of days. Which I think removes Gobble, BBM, and Dong from the effective Lynch pool.

Can you re-explain this?

How does this make sense? This reads to me like "I only want to lynch townie people" for... what reason exactly?

I can understand a town read on Dong tangentially but why are you clearing Gobble and BBM—even if just for "a couple days."

If you gonna bus in White Flag it's potentially really strong but you also have to be able to carry the game. So anyone who voted for NSG that was in weak standing probably isn't scum bc they aren't in positions to carry the game out.

Those players, if they weren't on NSG would be in the Lynch pool. But I have removed them as they aren't carries and WERE on NSG.

Because like we need one scum not both. So there is no way any of them are partnered together either posturing around on NSG.

So that removes them from the Lynch pool. leaves 8 of the 11 players. Take myself out, 7 players, take out Ceph and Cheeky for reasons previously stated, five people. And that is a pretty damn tight Lynch pool.

[Dannflor]

Are you reading his posts today as town?

They're NAI

I just think from D1 he's townier than Espe

[Formerfish]

I agree that Dong is scummy but that hammer makes me hesitant.

Why is that the thing that you get held up on with Dong? A scum buddy wouldnt hammer when deadline was looming?

[Formerfish]

FF do something with your life before I start tunnelling you again.

Its funny you say that because i actually am which is what is keeping me from being here.

Now im making bad decisions and staying up way later than i should to be here. go figure.

[Dannflor]

That doesn't follow.

NSG was likely dying anyway. If you're in "weak standing" you still bus for whatever town cred you can muster. I don't think a "weaker standing" team takes the stance of never bussing. Both Eddie and Tom are currently losing their minds in the chat about this logic and how little sense this makes. It's literally just Espeonage trying to justify killing towny people because they're better lynches for him. Tom is surprised he's not dead yet.